Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.

And a prosperous New Year.

by Colman Tue Dec 19th, 2006 at 06:59:42 AM EST

The FT reports that Germany's flash-in-the-pan, cyclical economic good news continues with business confidence at is highest for 15 years:

The Munich-based Ifo institute’s business climate index leapt from 106.8 in November to 108.7 this month. That was the strongest reading since the pan-German survey started in 1991, shortly after reunification and suggested that the German economy would remain on a strong footing well into 2007.

...

That suggested German businesses has become noticeably less alarmed by the effects of a three percentage point rise in German VAT that takes effect in January. Unlike in France, the stronger currency has also raised few concerns.

“It is clear that the economy is booming and the good news is that expectations have rebounded forcefully over the past two months. So there are no real fears that the fiscal tightening or higher euro will be a problem,” said Dirk Schumacher, economist at Goldman Sachs in Frankfurt.

Good news for the Eurozone. Not so good news for Irish mortgage payers who over-extended themselves, but it's not as if the rising interest rates are a suprise: the ECB made this clear several years ago.


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Unlike in France, the stronger currency has also raised few concerns.

Afaik, concerns expressed in France revolve around Airbus, and the automatic competitive edge conferred on Boeing by a cheap dollar (though that should concern Germany too).

Apart from that, both Royal and Sarkozy have had a bash at the ECB and high rates. That they are both campaigning for a presidential election has, of course, nothing to do with their choice of theme.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Dec 19th, 2006 at 11:56:22 AM EST
by afew (afew_at_europe_dot_com) on Tue Dec 19th,

"Unlike in France, the stronger currency has also raised few concerns.
Afaik, concerns expressed in France revolve around Airbus, and the automatic competitive edge conferred on Boeing by a cheap dollar (though that should concern Germany too)."

Germany sells 60% of its goods to euro countries. A stronger or weaker euro doesn't have any effect on these sales. 30% of its exports go to economic growth areas like China, Japan, Taiwan, Korea, India, South East Asia and South America. Only 7% of German exports are shipped to the US. But even there German exports are increasing in volume and have reached this month again (!) an all time high. The current  drop of the dollar is absolutely no problem. If anything it reduced the import cost of energy and made German production cost become even more competitive.

"The USA appears destined by fate to plague America with misery in the name of liberty." Simon Bolivar, Caracas, 1819

by Ritter on Wed Dec 20th, 2006 at 04:03:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
.... isn't it excellent ot have a very strong Euro now?

Would it not be very good for the global economy to force a 1.7$ per euro with 100$ barrel of oil. Oil for Euope will remain constant.. the US will feel the pain and rebalance their oil waste...the European economy will sustain on their own with under control inflation, not low interest rates, internal demand.. and China, India andd SouthAmerica growth..

Would not it be loverrrrly...that said.. can an stampede of the US dollar bring it down to 2.5-4 $ per euro.. or is it impossible? I doubt the US economy can collapse....other than that I would go for a mild long recession for the US in the next 2-4 years as excellent news for the world.. and the US probably.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Dec 19th, 2006 at 01:32:10 PM EST
With its incredible and increasing credit dependency, the US economy will tank sooner or later. It will be the worse the later.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Dec 19th, 2006 at 03:35:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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