by qika PR
Tue Feb 28th, 2006 at 07:17:34 PM EST
After 15 years, Kosovo has a new president. However, with the final status process underway, not much attention has been paid to the role that the new president can play. This is what I address in my diary.
The Pristina-Belgrade talks regarding Kosovo's final status began on February 20th after being postponed due to the death of Kosovo's President, Ibrahim Rugova, on January 21st. So far, discussions have predominately focused on the potential outcome of the negotiations and its impact in the region. Few remarks have been made on how Kosovo's new president, Fatmir Sejdiu, could influence the negotiations as leader of the Pristina negotiation team.
Rugova was without doubt a charismatic leader who after being president for fifteen years gained the status of the "father of the nation." He was president during the establishment of the parallel Kosovar government and institutions during the Milosevic regime in Serbia. The presidential position was personified with Rugova and his role as leader of the Pristina negotiation team was and would have remained merely symbolic. However, his successor, Sejdiu--who was secretary general of Rugova's party, the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK)--promises to be more active, dynamic, and perhaps more constructive in the negotiation process.
"What for Rugova was more of an honorary position (to lend weight to the actual negotiators) will be a very real job for the new man. Indeed, Sejdiu called a first meeting of the team for the day after his election, after it had not met in three months."
So far, Sejdiu has gained the approval of the local Albanian political actors. He was elected president with a respectable 2/3 of the parliament's votes and many have called him a "consensual president." Even Veton Surroi, an opposition leader and a previous harsh critic of the LDK, said that
[t]he change of guard gives a chance to ease out corrupt old-timers and promote people who know economics.
The Economist. "When Hard Truths Shock. Kosovo Serbs hardly believe their fate."
2/18/2006, Vol. 378 Issue 8465, p50-50
As for the international actors, the initial fear after Rugova's death was that there would be power clashes amongst the Albanian politicians. Pleased with Sejdiu's election, the international community sees him as a realistic politician. He comes across as more articulate and determined in his goals. His goals without doubt include an independent Kosovo since any other aim would mean political suicide for Kosovar politicians. Being more pragmatic and somewhat moderate, Sejdiu has the potential to play a constructive role in the final status talks.
In the context of the Pristina-Belgrade talks, their nature has been generally misapprehended by the international press. Many international diplomats have already admitted that Kosovo will most likely have conditional independence--
code for full independence after a transitional period, but with certain safeguards for Kosovo's remaining Serbs.
The Economist. "Independent Thinking. The behind-the-scenes diplomacy that will settle Kosovo's future."
1/21/2006, Vol. 378 Issue 8461, p51-51
John Sawers, the political director of the British Foreign Office told a group of Kosovo Serbs that the contact groups "had decided firmly that Kosovo should have independence, and Serbs must make the best of it. [...] At the office in Vienna where Martti Ahtisaari, a former Finnish president, is preparing to host the talks on Kosovo's status, there was quiet satisfaction over the diplomat's clear message: he was telling a hard truth that needed telling.
The Economist. "When Hard Truths Shock. Kosovo Serbs hardly believe their fate."
2/18/2006, Vol. 378 Issue 8465, p50-50
In an interview for
Der Spiegel a week ago, Ahtisaari said that "the population of Kosovo should finally decide on what the future of Kosovo would be - 90 per cent of the population are Albanians - what do you think, what will their decision be."
If the outcome is already agreed, what is the point of Mr Ahtisaari's negotiations? The answer, in the words of one diplomat, is that they "are not about the status of Kosovo...[but about] negotiating the status of the Serbs in Kosovo."
The Economist. "Independent Thinking. The behind-the-scenes diplomacy that will settle Kosovo's future."
1/21/2006, Vol. 378 Issue 8461, p51-51
As such, the aim of the talks appears to be merely the creation of means for integrating the Serb minority in Kosovo.
And it is precisely at this point where Sejdiu can make a difference. Some Serbian political actors have already showed a change in behavior. The leader of the Serbian Democratic Party of Kosovo--that is part of the current government--Dragisa Miric, addressed Sejdiu in a manner that he has never addressed Rugova.
"We are willing to offer political support and any other support, and we are ready to actively participate in the building of a multiethnic and democratic society in
Kosovo."
Thus,
on the ground in Kosovo,"Sejdiu managed to be a conciliatory figure even with the local Serbs." For others, an important feature of Sejdiu is the fact that he does not have a military past. The latter is of great importance since leaders of the other main parties in Kosovo--Hashim Thaci from the Democratic Party of Kosovo and Ramush Hajradinaj from the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo--were both involved in the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) during the war. Oliver Ivanovic, the head of the Serbian List for Kosovo--the largest Serbian party in Kosovo--emphasized this point when referring to Sejdiu, "[i]t is very important that he does not have
military past. Till now this was an obstacle for communication between Serbian community and such people."
Without doubt, no one can expect the Serbian attitude towards an independent Kosovo to change due to a new president. However, if the cards are played right, Sejdiu can bring a new attitude to the negotiation table. When Hajradinaj was prime minister--before being sent to International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia--he managed to reach out to the Serbs in Kosovo. Sejdiu has a better chance to do so due to his pacifist background and current impressions. Thus, since the negotiations are merely serving the purpose of improving the status of the Serbs in Kosovo, Sejdiu can use his personal leverage as a pragmatist politician to soothe the negotiation process.