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Ukrainian and German elections thread

by Jerome a Paris Sun Mar 26th, 2006 at 11:02:42 AM EST

Information to be provided as they come in the comments


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In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Mar 26th, 2006 at 11:04:02 AM EST

Voters to deliver Ukraine verdict (BBC)

Long queues were reported outside polling stations in Kiev
Ukrainians are voting in parliamentary elections a year after the so-called "Orange Revolution" brought President Viktor Yushchenko to power.

Mr Yushchenko's popularity has since ebbed and his party is likely to be beaten by that of former rival Viktor Yanukovych, a close ally of Russia.

Mr Yushchenko said he wanted to rebuild the broken alliance that backed him in huge street protests 16 months ago.

No party in the election is expected to win enough seats to govern alone.

Talks on building a coalition will be complicated by the fact that under constitutional changes brought in following the Orange Revolution, parliament's powers are to be increased at the expense of the president.

Following the poll, parliament will choose the prime minister instead of the president, and parliament also has to approve all members of the government.



In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Mar 26th, 2006 at 11:07:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

37 million eligible voters
450-member parliament
45 parties taking part
Coalition government expected

Key parties
Yanukovych's Party of the Regions - predicted to get most votes
Yushchenko's Our Ukraine
Tymoshenko's BYT




In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Mar 26th, 2006 at 11:07:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
When should results start coming in?
by Rick in TX on Sun Mar 26th, 2006 at 04:10:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Exit-poll results by Ukrainian Independent Sociological Service


Ukrainian Independent Sociological Service has made public results of a national exit poll. As REGNUM was told in the sociological service, overall, 20,000 respondents are planned to be polled at 350 polling stations in all Ukrainian regions. Statistical error is not more than 1%. By 18:00 local time 15,800 respondents had been polled. 5,900 of them were questioned in south-eastern Ukraine, 3,100 in the central part, 3,600 in the west, and 3,200 in the Autonomous Crimea Republic.

According to the results, the 3% barrier is overcome by the following parties and blocs:

Regions Party - 25.7% (South-West - 48.8%, Center - 16.4%, West - 5.5%, Crimea - 32.1%);

Bloc of Yulia Timoshenko - 16.5% (South-West - 10.7%, Center - 20.1%, West - 29.9%, Crimea - 5.3%);

People's Opposition Bloc by Natalya Vitrenko - 14.9% (South-West - 25.3%, Center -- 6.7%, West - 3.6%, Crimea - 24%);

Our Ukraine Bloc - 11.5% (South-West - 4.2%, Center - 12.7%, West - 25.5%, Crimea - 3.6%);

Ukraine's Socialist Party - 6.5% (South-West - 3.2%, Center - 12.8%, West - 7%, Crimea - 3%);

Opposition Ne Tak! Bloc - 5.2% (South-West - 5.3%, Center - 6.9%, West - 3.2%, Crimea -5.4%);

Ukraine's Communist Party - 3.9% (South-West - 4.5%, Center - 3.4%, West - 2.2%, Crimea -5.5%);

Litvin's Popular Bloc - 3% (South-West - 2.6%, Center - 4.8%, West - 1.7%, Crimea -2.9%).

PRP-PORA Civil Bloc is still approaching the 3% barrier - 2.5%.

And another one:

Exit-poll of a Ukrainian party: Regions Party - 30%, BYT - 19%, Our Ukraine - 16%


As a REGNUM correspondent has been told by a member of one of the Ukrainian parties' headquarters, who asked not to call his name and his political affiliation, according to data collected by their sociological service, votes at the elections distributed as follows by 19:00:

Regions Party - 29-30%

Bloc of Yulia Timoshenko 18-19%

Our Ukraine People's Union - 15-16%

Ukraine's Socialist Party - 7%

Ukraine's Communist Party - 5%

PORA-PRP - 5%

Litvin's Bloc - 3%

The rest parties receive 1.5%-2% of the votes. According to the source, the polls published before were made to order and aimed to affect the voting.

by blackhawk on Sun Mar 26th, 2006 at 05:08:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So the Regions party has the lead. Is this enough to form a stable government?
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Sun Mar 26th, 2006 at 05:53:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

No. Blocking with Regions is anathema to Orange parties. I expect Regions to be out of the ruling block.

More likely is some sort of alliance between Our Ukraine + Socialist Party + BYT. The problem with this development is that Timoshenko will want to get a prime minister post back, but Yushenko seems to rule this out.

by blackhawk on Sun Mar 26th, 2006 at 06:01:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Where does the People's Opposition Bloc by Natalya Vitrenko stand, and could Regions form a coalition with them? (I note they are missing from the second exit poll.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Mar 27th, 2006 at 02:42:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Vitrenko's block must be missing from the second poll because it polled below 3% barrier. Big question regarding Vitrenko is whether she passes at all 3% barrier. Earlier expectations were around 3%.

Her position is left and pro-Russian, she is for stopping Ukrainization of Russians in Ukraine, good relationship with Russia, against membership in NATO and against membership in EU (if only on the basis that it's too early to talk about this). All in all her views are seen as radical in Ukraine.

Lately Yanukovich's (Regions) position shifted more pro-West, and in some regions (Crimea, for one) it is seen as unacceptable, so Vitrenko was expected to gain votes.

Yes, block between Regions and Vitrenko is natural, but it's not clear how many votes she has at the moment.

Interestingly, even without results OSCE already commented that elections were fair. Eastern regions are complaining about voter supression (translation of last names into Ukranian which caused people being dropped from the voter lists, changes to voter lists, multi-hour lines to get a ballot, voter intimidation).

by blackhawk on Mon Mar 27th, 2006 at 03:20:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
15% vs. <3%, the exit polls are again in full swing...

Can you give us a link to an official site with partial election results (no matter if in Cyrillic)?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Mar 27th, 2006 at 03:39:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Here we go:

Відомості про підрахунок голосів виборців в межах України with root page at http://www.cvk.gov.ua/vnd2006/w6p001.html

This data is going to change, as there is a clear regional divide in how people voted, and CEC is processing Western regions first.

by blackhawk on Mon Mar 27th, 2006 at 03:49:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Many thanks!

Is there also a link where they show participation/state of the vote count per province? (Unless it is a map, I'd also ask for a West-Central-South-Southeast 'classification'.) On that, we could look for eventual further indications of voter supression.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Mar 27th, 2006 at 11:16:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Activity percentages must be here, rightmost column. As for what is East and what is West look at the regions where Regions are at #1 position here.
by blackhawk on Mon Mar 27th, 2006 at 11:48:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
translation of last names into Ukranian which caused people being dropped from the voter lists, changes to voter lists, multi-hour lines to get a ballot, voter intimidation

Regarding the first, that's another nice ugly trick; how widespread was it? Regarding the last, what form did it take?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Mar 27th, 2006 at 03:41:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I keep hearing about this (last names, street names for some of the records), but all the evidence is anekdotal. Alledgedly there are small changes in voter data that causes ballots being denied at the election day. Even few days ago there was uncertainty on how such problems were going to be rectified. I think the latest was that voters should go to courts and supposedly courts should be able to do election day voter lists corrections. Needless to say, such procedure is too burdensome for the majority. Here Commitee of Ukraine's voters says that there were no substatial problems, but there were problems with voter lists, long wait in order to vote in all regions. All this caused about 1 million voters not being able to vote. Contrary to the conslusion, 1 million seems substantial to me.

For intimidation, SBU (state security) services seem to pay attention to anti-Orange parties and groups, street protests by those groups and dealt with differently then Orange demonstrations. One of my favorites is gallows being installed on the center square of Russian Sevastopol by one of the Orange youth groups with police protecting installation from the population.

by blackhawk on Mon Mar 27th, 2006 at 04:21:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Here member of the Russian Duma who was present with observers during elections mentions the problem with the translation of the last names, states that last minute changes to the election rules prevented voter list corrections on the election day and estimates that 10-12% voters were denied their right to vote due to the problems with the lists.
by blackhawk on Mon Mar 27th, 2006 at 05:25:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]


In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Mar 26th, 2006 at 11:04:18 AM EST

3 German states hold regional elections

BERLIN, March 26 (Xinhuanet) -- Three German states on Sunday held regional elections, which are being seen as the first test of voters' support for the grand coalition government since it took office in November.

Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is expected to be reelected in the south-western state of Baden-Wuerrtemberg, while its coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) is to continue its rule in the neighboring Rhineland-Palatinate, polls released on Friday showed.

The CDU-SPD coalition is expected to replace the current CDU-Free Democrat (FDP) coalition in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt.

Polls showed that the CDU-FDP would take a combined 54 percent share of the vote in Baden-Wuerrtemberg, where the CDU has been ruling since 1953.

According to polls, SPD Premier Kurt Beck is very likely to win Rhineland-Palatinate, where he and his FDP partner are expected to win around 52 percent of the vote. The unemployment rate in the state has dropped to 9.1 percent, well below the national level of around 12 percent.

In the politically-volatile state of Saxony Anhalt, which has seen three different coalitions resulting from four elections since the 1990 unification, a change of government is expected, as the 20.8 percent unemployment rate is the second highest in the 16 federal states.

CDU's Wolfgang Boehmer is currently in power in the state, where opinion polls have indicated that the CDU remains the largest party holding 37 percent of the vote, while its FDP coalition partner has shrunk from 13 percent to 6, less than enough to form the government. The SPD holds 23 percent.



In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Mar 26th, 2006 at 11:11:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Initial report from the Frankfurter Rundschau:

Beck uand Oettinger with absolute majority?

Stuttgart/Mainz/Magdeburg (dpa) - In the first test of the popularity of the Grand Coalition on the national level, CDU and SPD decisively defended their [respective] strongholds in Baden-Württemberg and Rheinland-Palatinate. According to projections of [national public broadcasters] ARD and ZDF, the CDU in Stuttgart and SPD in Mainz may even be able to govern alone in the aftermath of the state-level elections.

In Saxon-Anhalt the current CDU and FDP is tottering. A Grand Coalition is also possible hear. The FDP is thus at risk of losing its toehold in the governments of all three states. This would give the black-red camp ([i.e. CDU + SPD] a comfortable two-thirds majority in the Bundesrat for constitutional changes.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt št gmail dotcom) on Sun Mar 26th, 2006 at 11:34:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Just out of curiousity, are any constitutional changes being mooted?
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Sun Mar 26th, 2006 at 11:41:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There is a looming "federalism reform", to reorganize the respective competences of state and federal government. (Perhaps not coincidentally, it will also likely reallocate some revenue streams). This has been a subject of ongoing, tedious since early in the Schröder government at least.

There are a number of administrative and constitutional law reasons for a reform, as over the years legislative initiatives have enabled the respective parties to encroach on areas which the constitution originally reserved for the other.

Of course, one never knows where such a process, once initiated, will ultimately end up. But a two-thirds majority in the Bundesrat, the chamber of the states, will not automatically lie down and pass whatever the federal government wants: German state minister-presidents (often apostrophized in the press as "state princes"), whatever their political stripe, have their own interests distinct from those of the federal government.

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

by dvx (dvx.clt št gmail dotcom) on Sun Mar 26th, 2006 at 11:58:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
See this Flash for the actual polling results, seats, possible coalitions.


The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt št gmail dotcom) on Sun Mar 26th, 2006 at 11:45:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Originally posted in my diary. Posted here on Jerome's request.

It could have been a test of the new Merkel-administration: Three regional elections in Rheinland-Pfalz, Baden-Württemberg (both situated in the South-West) and Sachsen-Anhalt (in the East). The first elections since the orming of the coalition in Berlin.

It could have been if this coalition were not a grand coalition. The motto of all campaigns was: "Don't hurt me, I won't hurt you!" In Rheinland-Pfalz, the CDU ceased the election to the incumbent Kurt Beck (SPD), in Baden-Württemberg the SPD did the same for Günther Oettinger (CDU). Accordingly, no surprises here. Kurt Beck's SPD might even get the majority of mandates, enabling him to form a government without the FDP. Günther Oettinger will continue to lead a CDU-FDP coalition.

In Sachsen-Anhalt, the outcome is not clear at the moment. The incumbent Wolfgang Böhmer who has led a CDU-FDP government will remain in office, but it is not quite clear who will be his partner: CDU and FDP might have a sufficient majority, but this is still a question of margin of error. If CDU-FDP fails to get a majority, Böhmer will form a grand coalition.

Current prognoses (18.30):

.       CDU  SPD  FDP  GRE  LEF  
RL-P   32,0 46,5  8,0  5,0  2,5
BA-WÜ  45,0 25,0 10,5 12,0  3,0
SA-AN  37,0 21,0  7,0  3,5 24,5

Very low turnouts everywhere.

by Saturday (geckes(at)gmx.net) on Sun Mar 26th, 2006 at 12:20:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I see it's a mixed bag for the Greens: gains in Ba-Wü, gains too in Sa-An but not enough to enter the regional assembly, but on the verge of falling out in Rl-Pf (though, as if usual city votes are counted for longer, their numbers will climb).

I wonder how the far-rightists did this time - below 5% yeah, but change in what direction?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Mar 26th, 2006 at 01:52:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Here are some numbers about the radical right (Deutsche Volksunion/DVU, Die Republikaner/REP, Nationaldemokratische Partei Deutschlands/NPD, Partei Rechtstaatliche Offensive/PRO):

Sachsen-Anhalt

.    1998  2001  2006
DVU  12,9   ---   3,0
REP   0,7   ---   0,5
PRO   ---   4,5   ---
---------------------
SUM  13,6   4,5   3,5

Baden-Württemberg

.     2001  2006
REP    4,4   2,5
NPD    0,2   0,7
---------------
SUM    4,6   3,2

The election pages of the statistical office of Rheinland-Pfalz are currently unavailable.

It seems to me that this is the really best news about these elections: Despite a very low voter turnout, the radical right was not able to gain in vote shares. On the contrary.

by Saturday (geckes(at)gmx.net) on Sun Mar 26th, 2006 at 02:57:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That really seems like very good news! What's the catch?
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Sun Mar 26th, 2006 at 03:29:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There have also been local elections in Hessen. It will take a while until the results are in, but in Frankfurt it seems that the big parties have lost significantly while the Left (WASG/PDS) has gained:

Results of 114 of 545 electoral districts:

.      CDU  SPD  LEF
%     35,8 26,4  7,3
+/-   -5,3 -4,8 +7,3

For news about local elections in Hessen see:

Hessischer Rundfunk

Statistics Office Hessen

by Saturday (geckes(at)gmx.net) on Sun Mar 26th, 2006 at 01:04:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My once home Bad Vilbel (right: 2001):

Wähler/-innen    52,0    Wähler/-innen    56,7
CDU    51,0    CDU    62,7
SPD    26,6    SPD    21,9
GRÜNE    12,0    GRÜNE    10,8
FDP    6,5    FDP    4,5
Die Linke.    4,0   

Horribly right-wing... but much better than in 2001.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Mar 26th, 2006 at 01:57:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
you lived in Bad Vilbel? - What did you do there?

I've actually never been there, but I always imagined it as a boring mixture of a health resort for the elderly and a satellite town for Frankfurt bankers...

...which would explain the results.

by Saturday (geckes(at)gmx.net) on Sun Mar 26th, 2006 at 02:21:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He was spying on the top secret Deutsche Bahn facility there.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Sun Mar 26th, 2006 at 02:34:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Anybody here into Acid/Elektro music? - There is a great Autechre/Chris Cunningham music video named Second Bad Vilbel.

But what's with that secret Bahn facility there? - Sounds somewhat like the Bielefeld-Does-Not-Exist-Theory?

by Saturday (geckes(at)gmx.net) on Sun Mar 26th, 2006 at 03:05:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What's this Bielefeld doesn't exist theory? I had to go do repairs at a network point there and it was a pain to find!

I actually do like acid/elektro in small doses. I reckon the man walking down the corridor in the video is DoDo.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Sun Mar 26th, 2006 at 03:28:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Bielefeld Conspiracy Theory states that Bielefeld does not exist: Bielefeld is said to be a cover for some sort of Area 51.

The story -- a kind of satire on conspiracy theories -- emerged in the mid-90s on the Usenet. It feeds on the fact that it is situated near important Autobahnen, so that many people pass it without ever actually seeing it.

by Saturday (geckes(at)gmx.net) on Sun Mar 26th, 2006 at 03:44:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
lol!

Bielefeld is depressingly real for me as it was one of our divisional centres when I worked in Koeln.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Sun Mar 26th, 2006 at 03:47:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
according to the theory, you only think that you have been in Bielefeld. In reality, you have been captured by the military, brain-washed and given fake memories of your stay in Bielefeld. I have a fake memory of having been to Bielefeld the first time about two weeks ago. I was visiting a fake birthday party there. A nice one, though...  
by Saturday (geckes(at)gmx.net) on Sun Mar 26th, 2006 at 03:58:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, if they gave you good memories you can't complain, that's quite a good deal.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Sun Mar 26th, 2006 at 04:49:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
you lived in Bad Vilbel? - What did you do there?

Went to school :-) I actually lived in a small village belonging to Bad Vilbel (Gronau), but the major at the time was also from there (and his son was my brother's classmate).

I've actually never been there, but I always imagined it as a boring mixture of a health resort for the elderly and a satellite town for Frankfurt bankers...

Uh-oh! What justifies the Bad tag is today actually more a big mineral water factory than health resort, and bankers lived in Bad Homburg or Wiesbaden. A quarter of my class (this was nearly two decades ago) was 'guest worker' kids (including yours truly), so don't picture too posh a place. (Though it surely looks more posh today: said major initiated a grand main street fa&ccedil,;ade renovation and riverbank beautification programme.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Mar 26th, 2006 at 04:19:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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