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Less than 8% of French youth unemployed!

by Jerome a Paris Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 08:24:51 AM EST

I have finally found a graph (courtesy of Le Monde, behind sub. wall) which shows clearly what "youth unemployment represents.


The above are French statistics for the year 2003-2004, and they go as follows:

60% - at school or university
27% - working (breakdown below)
08% - unemployed
05% - other, not active

Amongst those that work (or as a % of the total youth population):

44% (12%) - full employment under unlimited duration contract
22% (06%) - full employment with limited duration contract
12% (03%) - trainee, apprenticeship
08% (02%) - internship or other subsidised contract
08% (02%) - temping
05% (01%) - other contracts or not salaried

So the unemployment rate is indeed 22.6% (7.8/(7.8+26.7)) but that does not mean that 22.6% of young people are unemployed, as is so often written.

I have posted this previously, but it represents this for various countries in Europe: left is the employment rate, right is the unemployed population, both as a fraction of the total number of 15-24s. (Don't ask me why the numbers are slightly different form those above for France)

The most recent employment statistics for France in 2005 have just been published today by INSEE

Display:
It took me a while to catch the fluffy logic, but the employment number practically skims off those envolved in education and leaves them outside the calculation?

Good grief. No wonder you frontpage this. I'm slack jawed.

by Nomad on Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 09:00:03 AM EST
...what would make that even more astounding, I notice, is that 5 percent of those labeled as employed seem to be attached to education (apprenticeships and internships). Or at least, apprenticeships and internships in the Netherlands commonly work that way: contracts are made through higher eduction. Correct me here when I'm wrong.
by Nomad on Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 09:04:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You see: unemployment numbers are the biggest statistical scam on offer.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 09:07:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
that's worth a figure deconstruction!

When through hell, just keep going. W. Churchill
by Agnes a Paris on Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 09:09:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The picture I posted has actual numbers for every bit of data I used, all coming from INSEE, so you can do all the calculations you want. I also provided the link to the most recent INSEE paper on the topic. Feel free to deconstruct all you want.

I am posting a bonus table in the comments below.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 09:21:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
  1. This was meant to be a humoristic reference to your article language deconstruction ;
  2. I guess that the INSEE figures are fed in by those from ANPE, aren't they ?  


When through hell, just keep going. W. Churchill
by Agnes a Paris on Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 09:25:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
INSEE runs its own study:


L'enquête Emploi est une enquête trimestrielle et sa collecte a lieu en continu sur toutes les semaines de l'année.

Chaque trimestre, environ 35 000 ménages (c'est-à-dire 35 000 logements), soit de l'ordre de 75 000 personnes de 15 ans ou plus répondent à l'enquête. Au total chaque année, environ 54 000 ménages différents répondent à l'enquête, c'est-à-dire 115 000 personnes différentes de 15 ans ou plus.

L'enquête Emploi en continu constitue la seule source permettant de mettre en oeuvre la définition du chômage préconisée par le Bureau international du travail (BIT) et également de faire le lien entre le chômage au sens du BIT et le recensement des demandeurs d'emploi inscrits à l'Agence nationale pour l'emploi (ANPE). Ainsi, parmi les 2 717 000 chômeurs BIT de 2005, 453 000 déclarent ne pas être inscrits à l'ANPE. À l'inverse, 1 705 000 personnes déclarent être inscrites à l'ANPE, mais ne sont pas comptabilisées comme chômeurs au sens du BIT : 993 000 d'entre elles sont classées actives occupées et 712 000 inactives selon le BIT.



In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 09:29:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Deconstructing is a Good Thing. It is giving ET special value. And you know what? There's talent here.

I support more deconstructing/minute.

by Nomad on Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 09:29:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's right : students are not labelled as job seekers. You have to be registered with the job seekers national office (ANPE) to be part of the statistics.

When you know how hard it is to even qualify as job seeker and how quickly they take you off the lists, no wonder many jobless people are actually are not accounted for.

When through hell, just keep going. W. Churchill
by Agnes a Paris on Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 09:06:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
As Jerome pointed out mentioned above unemployment statistics get their own survey they are not based on the number of people who register for unemployment. This is a fairly standard and agreed upon international method of collecting unemployment data.

To quote from one of my early posts at ET "It's a misconception that the unemployment rate information comes from the number of applications for unemployment compensation - if so the unemployment rate in the US would be very low since people only get compensation for a short period of time depending on their prior employment & after that they would have no incentive to register with their state's Deparment of labor anymore.

Like I think most countries the US does a survey to estimate the unemployment rate of the population."

by Alexandra in WMass (alexandra_wmass[a|t]yahoo[d|o|t]fr) on Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 02:46:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My point is that the unemployment rate is calculated as a ratio to the active population (about one third of the total population), not to the total population, so that exaggerates the unemployment statistic (by a factor of 3).

Is that why you are slack-jawed? I am confused by your comment.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 09:11:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
...why I am slack jawed. If people write "active population" I'm not someone who immediately discerns that by that definition students are suddenly excluded.

When people write about unemployment number of youth, I expect that the entire group is included (with students) instead of disecting a subgroup of that population. No wonder the figure gets blown up. (Damnable percentages ;)

by Nomad on Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 09:26:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'd say that this graph from Le Monde gives us nothing to be proud of when it comes to the youth unemployment record. BTW, it would be interesting to know what their sources are.

Indeed, striking is that less than half of those employed work under stable conditions. The 7.8% being on traineeship (stage), let alone the 7.6% in interim (part time work) positions cannot be really considered as benefiting from stable perspectives. Those are candidates for job search.
Those, like yourself, who read le Canard Enchaîné know how good the government is at forging the figures of ANPE (job seekers central office)

When through hell, just keep going. W. Churchill
by Agnes a Paris on Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 09:03:04 AM EST
The issue is not how the numerator is measured, the issue is which denominator you take.

If you measure unemployment to active population, you get a number 3 times worse, in France, than unemployment to total youth population. If you use that higher number to say that one young person out of four is looking for a job, like many newspapers do, you are lying, or you are being willfully ignorant.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 09:14:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
May I assume that the "you" used in your last sentence is a generic ?

When through hell, just keep going. W. Churchill
by Agnes a Paris on Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 09:17:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
can take it as "you" want... ;-)

(yes, I was specifically targetting newspaper articles)

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 09:31:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
you are lying, or you are being willfully ignorant

in view of the above, I'd rather assume that "you" was not "tu".

When through hell, just keep going. W. Churchill
by Agnes a Paris on Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 09:39:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Agnes, it seems obvious to someone (well, yes, me as it happens ;)) coming in here to read these comments, that Jérôme's "you" translates into French as "on".
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 09:54:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It was not that obvious in the context of one of my ideas being labelled "ridiculous" yesterday.
I am sure Jérôme appreciates your stepping in, afew, as he did not care to do it by himself.

When through hell, just keep going. W. Churchill
by Agnes a Paris on Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 09:57:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 10:28:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You know you are not any you.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 09:56:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This is one of the unfortunate things about the English language...that we lost the formal/informal second person distinction.

So we just have to substitute "one" for "you," which makes this "when one does this" or "when one does that" (general point).

Of course southerners in the US have partially solved the problem by inventing "y'all" for "you" (plural).

NOTE: this comment is known as a subtle change of subject which has the effect of turning attention away from any possible terse words or whatever.

by gradinski chai on Wed Mar 8th, 2006 at 01:29:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I was not focusing on the global figure of youth unemployment, but on the split between categories.

When through hell, just keep going. W. Churchill
by Agnes a Paris on Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 09:18:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
... is that a bare 11% of the total age range (I guess 18 to 24y) benefit from an unlimited duration contract.

When through hell, just keep going. W. Churchill
by Agnes a Paris on Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 09:16:08 AM EST
It's the 15-to-24s, of which 60% are still studying - and presumably a large number of those are really studying.

But you might find this article interesting:

La France a sacrifié les jeunes depuis 20 ans (France has sacrificed the young over the past 20 years)

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 09:36:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The lines represent the level of education:

  • no qualifications
  • apprenticeships, but no diploma
  • apprenticeship or basic technical qualification
  • bac
  • one or two years of university, no diploma
  • polytechnic or other short course diplomas (2 years)
  • graduate
  • post-graduate diploma
The columns are as follows:
  • immediate and durable access to employment
  • first job was an unlimited duration contract
  • current job is an unlimited duration contract (circled)
  • unemployed (circled)
  • currently in a subsidised "job"
  • working part time
  • temping


In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 09:27:05 AM EST
before "bac", you have "bac level" (no diploma)

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 09:54:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The column categories are very confusing to me. Do they overlap? If not then it seems to me the rows should add up to 100%. If yes then it seems the graph should make that clear. Was there additional information that went with the graph and would make it easier to interpret?
by Alexandra in WMass (alexandra_wmass[a|t]yahoo[d|o|t]fr) on Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 03:07:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They overlap. The rows should not add to 100%. It's just independent questions.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 04:32:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Great number find! As your numbers clearly point out, in general, especially for youth, it's best to know what percent of the total population is in the labour force (employed & unemployed looking for work) before making sweeping statements about unemployment rate numbers.

Will have to take a closer look at the numbers later in the day. Thanks also for the INSEE report link. I just printed it out for later reading.

by Alexandra in WMass (alexandra_wmass[a|t]yahoo[d|o|t]fr) on Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 09:52:22 AM EST
These are actually quite impressive figures for young people.  Denmark, especially, has great figures, but all of the countries listed seem to be in decent shape.

I assume "Roy-Uni." is the UK, but what are "Allemagne" and "Pologne"?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 10:54:10 AM EST
Germany and Poland.

(The Alemans were a large German tribe or tribal allience in the latter part of the Roman Empire's history, living in the areas just North of the Roman Empire, and they would eventually invade large parts of what is now France.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 11:21:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
(Smilarly, the Italian name for Germans originates in the Teutons, who were the first German tribe Rome got in touch with when they left what is now Denmark and invaded Central and Southern Europe from around 120 BC until the final defeat and genocidal annihilation around 102 BC.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 11:24:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah, I see.  Thanks.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 11:30:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Go on, DoDo, mention Batavia next, Nomad needs riling up a bit more today...  ;-)
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 11:36:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes indeed, the Batavian Republic (named for the Batavii tribe whom the Romans almost exterminated near the delta of the Rhine) was succeeded by the Napoleonic Kingdom of Holland, which encompassed much of today's Neetherlands...

...amd from Wiki:

From the great port cities of Holland, Dutch merchants sailed to and from destinations all over Europe, and merchants from all over Europe gathered to trade in the warehouses of Amsterdam and other trading cities of Holland. As a result, many Europeans heard of the United Provinces first as "Holland" rather than "Republic of the Seven United Provinces of the Netherlands". This tradition continues to this day.

Sorry :-)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 03:30:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
...needs to be fixed with that wiki piece.

As a result, many Europeans heard of the United Provinces first as "Holland" rather than "Republic of the Seven United Provinces of the Netherlands". This tradition continues to this day.

This tradition? We long stopped being a republic of the seven united provinces. We've 12 provinces now, and we're a monarchy. How then can people refer back today to the republic??

I know what they mean, but it's still worded wrongly.

Mutter, mutter.

by Nomad on Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 05:03:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I thought you will protest that the Batavian Republic and the Napoleonic Kingdom of Holland were examples of foreign influence/ignorant foreign occupiers :-)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Mar 8th, 2006 at 06:12:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
the Italian name for Germans

(Tedeschi)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 03:34:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I once heard that Espana comes from some Farsi or Arabic word, isbâan, meaning "rabbit" ... thus "the country of rabbits" which apparently even Spaniards sometimes use too, but I've leave this to Migeru (ie: "el pais de conejos" ??)

Something to do with either their penchant for sex, or for their reproductive ratios, no?

by Alex in Toulouse on Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 03:38:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
España comes from the Latin Hispania.

Folk etymologies, schtymologies.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 03:46:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Awww, I liked the sexual connotations of the other etymology!
by Alex in Toulouse on Tue Mar 7th, 2006 at 03:50:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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