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Italy Elections Open Thread 2.0

by DoDo Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 05:44:13 AM EST

Update [2006-4-11 5:44:13 by DoDo]: BREAKING: I just see at La Repubblica that after 43 years(!!!) of being a fugitive, the boss of the bosses of the Sicilian mafia, Provenzano was arrested!!! And, where else: in Corleone. Below the last image made of him before he went into hiding (right), a computer graphics made earlier of how he should look now (center); and the first photo after arrest (left).


Victory for the Left:

In a true cliffhanger election, the Italian Left under the leadership of former PM and former European Commission President Romano Prodi narrowly won a majority in both chambers of the Italian Parliament. (Details moved below the fold.)


(Photos from Corriere della Sera)

  • Participation: within Italy, a respectable 83.5%

  • House: Prodi's L'Unione centre-left coalition beat Berlusconi's Casa della Libertà (CdL) right-wing coalition with a mere 25,224 votes, at 49.80% : 49.74% - in the new system, giving 341 seats against 277. (Votes from abroad will slightly change this, but probably increasing the Left's advantage.)

  • Senate: despite a lead of 50.2% to 48.95% of votes nationally, CdL only won 155 seats against 154. This one-seat lead can be upturned if the Left wins 4 out of 6 foreign senate seats (still counted).

So, unexpectedly narrow, but nevertheless it seems victory for Prodi and the Italian Left.

Update [2006-4-11 16:46:4 by DoDo]: With almost all foreign votes counted, it is now certain that Forza Italia wins only one more seat, while L'Unione wins 4+1 (the extra is one South American ex-pat party candidate, who declared he joins L'Unione).

This results in a total of 158+1 leftist, 156 rightist elected Senators. There are seven more Senators for life, three of whom de Gondi counts as safely pro-Left, gives a 162:160 majority for the Left.

For the House, L'Unione won 7 overseas seats, CdL won 4, and a nonaligned expat party won 1 (likely to support L'Unione like his Senator party comrade). Thus in the end, the House is left 348+1 : 281 right.

VICTORY!

Display:
Plus the 7 vitalici senator.. they can vote.. or they can abstain.as  they wish

They are
Francesco Cossiga, Oscar Luigi Scalfaro, Giorgio Napolitano, Giulio Andreotti, Sergio Pininfarina, Rita Levi Montalcini e Emilio Colombo.

So we will see what happens but it can all be very well down to what 7 non elected people decide to do. No matter the result on the 6 seats aborad.. these seven senator could block Prodi if they wish. Will they?

And time to sleep!!!!

And viva la campania!!!!!

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:31:44 PM EST
We call'em senatori a vita.

They usually don't meddle in the formation of governments. They're in the cosmos far beyond the madding crowd.

The problem is the vote of confidence to form the government. I'll have to check this aspect when I get hold of my wits tomorrow.

It seems the Union will have a one Senator advantage after all due to foreign senators. Let's hope.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:43:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Or possibly even a lead of 5?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:48:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Scalfaro, Napolitano e Montalcini have strong relationships with the Prodi coalition, so their vote (at least for the initial government creation) will most certainly be casted with the Union. Cossiga is kind of a crazy horse, so you can't really say, but he fell out with Berlusconi a while ago. Andreotti could ask for something in return for his vote, and where he votes Colombo will probably follow. I have no idea about Pininfarina (didn't even know he was a senator!).
by toyg (g.lacava@gmail.com) on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 03:27:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In Europe (2 seats) and South America (1 seat), the Left has a commanding lead unlikely to be overturned even given the sub-20% processing of the votes. But it leads in the other two election regions, too.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:46:52 PM EST
Is Ass Italiane in South America a left-leaning list?
by Alex in Toulouse on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:50:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
de Gondi said that they don't count because they didn't get above 4% overall.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:52:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's good news for the Left then, since it can even take 6 seats as things stand , but it's also kind of crazy. It means you cannot present a list that deals only with one area (as you'll never make the 4%), and you cannot be an independent either. The question then is why do they even bother to run, then?
by Alex in Toulouse on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:57:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
To take voters off some other list with more chances (remember Nader in 2000).
by toyg (g.lacava@gmail.com) on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 03:28:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
For a sceptical note on Prodi from the real left -
Prodi's record is not so nefarious and crooked, but is hardly more encouraging. His free market reforms, pension cuts and labour market deregulation, were what caused the RC to split from the centre-left coalition in the first place. A former EU Commissioner, he supported all the necessary neoliberal measures to get Italy into the Euro. As EU head, he led the charge for neoliberal reforms across Europe, encouraging would-be entrants such as Poland to slash protections for labour. When France rejected the EU Constitutional Treaty, he was the first to bemoan what he called the "fall of Europe". He has pledged to cut unit labour costs, mainly through tax cuts for employers, and is committed to 'liberalising' key markets. The modest welfare improvements he proposes (perhaps difficult to fund if he intends to cut taxes and the national debt), are intended as part of the neoliberal policy mix to underpin liberalisation by alleviating some of its costs. This happens to be almost precisely what is recommended by international capital and its paid monkeys (economists).
[LENIN'S TOMB]
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 04:32:06 AM EST
Lenin is a known Eurosceptic (more British than the British), so he exaggerates, but it is true that Prodi's record as PM is not too good, he provoked the Rifondazione Communista rebellion by violating the coalition pact, and that his tenure as Commission President didn't have many positive reforms (then again, his hands were tied, blame the Council).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 04:41:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
international capital and its paid monkeys (economists).

That's a nice touch.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 05:30:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I found an English version of the election law on foreign voting. They way I made sense of it (counting is governed by Articles 15 and 16), the overall 3% margin doesn't hold here! So South America seems set to send one Senator of an ex-pat party.

But what really gives me a headache is the distribution of seats in the two-seat regions. If I got the method right, the following strange thing happens:

Europe:

  • L'Unità got 53.4%, vote x 2/100% = 1.068, gives 1 seat and a fraction of 0.068 remains.
  • Second-placed Forza Italia got 24.1%, vote x 2/100% = 0.482, no seat given immediately.
  • The highest fraction that remains is Forza Italia's, so Forza gets the second seat!...

North and Central America:
  • L'Unità got 37.81%, vote x 2/100% = 0.7562, no seat given immediately.
  • Second-placed Forza Italia got 30.56%, vote x 2/100% = 0.6112, no seat given immediately.
  • L'Unità has the highest fraction that remains, so L'Unità gets both seats!...

If this isn't bizzarre then what.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 04:36:51 AM EST
L'Unione 44.21%, Forza Italia 21.26%, ASS.ITAL.SUD AMERICA 9.22%

No change (and none possible) in the seat allocation.

(And however I managed to mix up L'Unità and L'Unione...)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 04:53:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Can we celebrate yet?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 05:04:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If the law allows expat parties with more than 3% to be represented, then those South American Italians might be kingmakers. I have the feeling that there might be another reading of the rules. It says "Any remaining seats shall be assigned to those lists for which the division calculations have produced the highest remainders". Note the plural: I assume this means that the first two seats will be given to the two parties with the highest remainders. Thus it will be 3-2-1, and those folks of "Ass. italiane in Sud America" would be in the drivers' seat. So I ask: what exactly are their politics?

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 04:54:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
See below: the next sentence uses plural, too.

I asked de Gondi about these parties too, but thinking the 3% rule tosses them he didn't addressed that point. I hope he is awake soon and can comment both on the (Italian) wording of Article 15 and this ex-pat party.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 05:14:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The equal remainder part might be talking about cases of two parties claiming the first seat, or two parties claiming a second (or theoretically third etc.) seat. Anyway, I'm sure that this all will be cleared up by the final results.

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 05:21:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It says seats.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 05:22:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I agree about the interpretation of the law, but not the numbers.  Looking at the figures on the La Repubblica website, I get 4-1-1. L'Unione gets one in each region, Forza gets one in Europe and the Ass. Sud America list gets one in Sth America.
by canberra boy (canberraboy1 at gmail dot com) on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 05:22:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
L'Unione gets one in each region, Forza gets one in Europe and the Ass. Sud America list gets one in Sth America.

But it is North and Central, not South America that gets two seats. If your interpretation is right, talos's account would be right.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 05:25:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Bummer. No, I was wrong all along and you are right: South America has two seats!

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 05:26:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
...which means, if my interpretation would be right, it's 3-1-2, with the ex-pat party bagging both South American seats.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 05:31:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah now I see what I counted wrong: I gave one seat to B. in S.A. when I thought that the 3% limit was in place, but didn't remove it when it turned out that it isn't. So 4-1-1 it is, with no possibility of change.

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 05:33:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Looking at La Repubblica it seems to me that it is Sth America that gets two.  I stand by my figures of 4-1-1, and note that kcurie has come to the same conclusion downthread.
by canberra boy (canberraboy1 at gmail dot com) on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 05:52:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I interpret the application of the translation slightly differently for the North America situation.

The law says: "Any remaining seats shall be assigned to those lists for which the division calculations have produced the highest remainders."  I think that the significant thing is the use of the plural 'lists' and 'remainders', which implies to me that one seat each will be given to the two highest, ie L'Unita and Forza.

That also has somewhat more logic & fairness attached to it!

by canberra boy (canberraboy1 at gmail dot com) on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 05:04:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think your interpretation would leave the allocation process underdefined. At any rate, the next sentence implies otherwise:

In the case of identical remainders, the seats shall be assigned to the list with the highest electoral number;

The plural in "lists" could either be a translation error, or mean "those lists [in each overseas zone]".

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 05:11:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Agree it could be a translation error.
by canberra boy (canberraboy1 at gmail dot com) on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 05:26:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That also has somewhat more logic & fairness attached to it!

Logic, FAIRNESS?!?!?!?!?

Remember, this crazy election law was made by B to suit himself!

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 05:23:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Logic and fairness may however be what a court will apply.  Also, it is unlikely that Berlusconi or henchpersons could have foreseen the way the numbers might fall in the overseas electoral regions to have dreamed up the plurality-takes-all interpretation as likely to suit themselves.
by canberra boy (canberraboy1 at gmail dot com) on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 05:55:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
L'UNIONE 43.72%
FORZA ITALIA 21.81%
ASS.ITAL.SUD AMERICA 9.40%
PER ITALIA NEL MONDO 7.42%
UDC 6.46%

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 05:06:10 AM EST
I can see on La Repubblica's site that it's, for the Senate:

Europe (453 out of 479 counted):
53.0% Prodi vs 24.4% Berlu => +2 seats for Prodi

Asia/Africa/Oceania/Antarctica (107 out of 113 counted):
46.1% Prodi vs 35.6% Berlu => +1 seat for Prodi

America Settentrionale e Centrale (92 out of 100 counted):
37.8% Prodi vs 30.6% Berlu => +1 seat for Prodi

America Meridionale (182 out of 204 counted):
31,6% Ass Italiane, 29.3% Prodi, 11% Berlu => if I interpreted de Ghondi correctly, the Ass Italiane get nothing as they are below a national 0.4%, being present only here, thus the +1 seat goes to Prodi?

So Prodi wins all overseas senatorial seats, which makes him win the senate => was 154 vs 155 before, now becomes 160 vs 155.

Since Prodi also wins la Camera, it's a good day after all.

Morality: Italians abroad are massively against Berlusconi, is it because they do not watch Raï TV?

by Alex in Toulouse on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 05:13:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
2+1+1+1=5

Where is the sixth seat?

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 05:17:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
America Meridionale is also 2 like Europe (over 200 000 Italians voted there, which means that there are a lot more residents, while Europe stands at 450 000 voters).
by Alex in Toulouse on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 05:31:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I linked to the electoral law, and there is nothing in it about discounting overseas votes under 3% or any other threshold.

North and Central America get two seats, so apparently La Repubblica counts the opposite way than I did, must be giving 1 to Forza in North America.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 05:21:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That answers were the sixth seat was. Thanks.

Now I just want to know when we can celebrate.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 05:24:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No.. the Associazioni wins in Sudamerica. There is no national threshold with the foreign vote.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 05:22:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This projects a distribution of seats
4 more for Prodi, 1 more for Berlusconi, 1 for ASS Italini Sud America.

If presents results hold... we win by two senators (taking out the crazy  and the the Sudamerican 1)

A pleasure


I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 05:21:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So we can proudly say that Italy saved Europe today, and Europe saved Italy (I mean check it out, in Europe's senatorial seat race, it's 53% for Prodi vs 24.4% for Berlu!!!!)
by Alex in Toulouse on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 05:33:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
From "la Repubblica":
Luigi Pallaro, eletto in Argentina, ha infatti già annunciato che darà il suo sostegno alla maggioranza.

The independent South American won't interfere in the governemt building.

By the way, Prodi wins anyway.

Crazy elction days...

La répartie est dans l'escalier. Elle revient de suite.

by lacordaire on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 05:34:07 AM EST
SO CAN WE CELEBRATE YET?

I got lost in minutae of election law last night.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 05:34:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
we have to make sure the 7 forever and ever senators do nt get in the middle. If we can count on three this means we need a 5-1 distribution of seats...Hold it a second

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 05:36:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Excellent, so we can then celebrate!!!!

La vittoria e nostra!!!!!

by Alex in Toulouse on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 05:37:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
More exactly:
His political philosophy:

Luigi Pallaro, a businessman, is campaigning as a one-man party to represent the Italians of South America. "We can't afford the luxury of being in the Opposition," he says. In other words: "Elect me and I'll join the winners."

So, Colman, go out and celebrate...

But it will be a wild ride for Prodi, if he ahngs on lifelong senators and pallaro.

An interesting name by the way: out of the blue, I can think of at least 5 "giochi di parola" with it. Good for the newspaper editors...

La répartie est dans l'escalier. Elle revient de suite.

by lacordaire on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 05:44:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Now it says:

"Il sesto eletto è un indipendente che avrebbe annunciato l'adesione all'Unione."

He now joined L'Unione! It's 159:156, and even if only 3 of the life-timers support L'Unione, it's 162:160 in the end!

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 05:51:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What is this.. sicilly?

Jesus.. I would love to celebrate.. but this stuff of being dependent on 3 nonelected guys to do the right thing...

But.. ei we won!!!!!! By the smallest smallest margin...thanks to Europe, thanks to Campania... and against all Palermo...Amazing

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 06:02:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I just see at La Repubblica that after four decades of being a fugitive(!!!), the boss of the bosses of the Sicilian mafia, Provenzano was arrested!!!



*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 05:41:15 AM EST
Maybe they caught him at a voting station.
by Alex in Toulouse on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 05:44:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Are you suggesting that the results from Palermo were weird??? you nuty.

Dodo had a brilliant name for it..

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 05:58:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Conspiracy theory #1: Ballot-stuffing and Provenzano's post-election-day arrest was agreed in advance in some secret deal between B and the mafia.

Conspiracy theory #2: There was a ballot-stuffing agreement, but the mafia didn't deliver enough, and B took revenge.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 06:32:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Conspiracy theory n.3: the agreement was there and the mafia was busy delivering, but in doing so Provenzano exposed himself a bit too much.
by toyg (g.lacava@gmail.com) on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 07:36:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We could make a snark comment about undelivered goods, but the contrary appears to be true.

Provenzano is the boss of bosses, at large for 43 years, responsible for hundreds of assassinations of judges, police, upright citizens as well as the brutal mafia wars of the seventies and eighties. Together with Totò Riina they launched a war against the state in the 80's and 90's. They were behind indiscriminate terror bombings throughout Italy. The judges Giovanni Falcone and Paolo Borsellino were massacred along with their escorts.

Known as "the tractor" Provenzano gained notoriety with the Viale Lazio massacre in 1969 (Palermo.) Under the boss Luciano Liggio the Corleonese launched an all-out war on the rival clans and after thousands of dead became the absolute rulers of the mafia, an empire that embraced three continents.

After the capture of Riina in 1993, Provenzano became the boss and adopted a far more subtle strategy of the silent, educated, white collar mafia that concentrated its extraordinary wealth in international finance. There has never been a mystery about the collusion of high finance, Masonry, and politicians with the mafia. It was the courageous work of isolated and incorruptible judges, reporters, politicians and cops that triggered the war against the state in the 80's. So long as civil society bothered with the mafia's military branch, everything was acceptable.

The capture of Provenzano the day after the elections is highly symbolic. It means that he was no longer protected by his allies. It means that the forces of law had managed to weed out the informants and spies in their midst.

The most recent case is the story of Kissy-kiss Cuffaro, the president of Sicily, now on trial for external support of the mafia and Rightwing candidate for the upcoming presidential elections in Sicily. His entire entourage has been incriminated for revealing the progress of the investigations against the mafia with the crime of association with the mafia.

Two alleged mafia bosses, Doctor Giuseppe Guttadauro and Doctor Michele Aiello, were informed of the investigators' progress throughout. Yet what was a mystery is how Cuffaro's entourage learnt of the investigations. It now appears that it is part of the great wire-taping scandal that directly implicates Pollari's Sismi not only in spying on the Procura of Palermo but also on the Procura of Milan in the David Mill's bribery case.

The alleged private use of the Italian Secret Services by the Berlusconi entourage to keep abreast of investigations that involve him and his clique is only at the first stage.

The capture of Provenzano sends a strong message to those parties and their leaders that they are not invulnerable despite their popular base.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 08:00:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
<blockquote>We could make a snark comment about undelivered goods, but the contrary appears to be true.</blockquote>
This joke must be put in context... Provenzano's location was determined by tracking two parcels "sent" to him (via aides), and also several communications between him and "associates".
by toyg (g.lacava@gmail.com) on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 08:05:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You should diarise this, definitely!

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 08:55:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
As said before:

Never trust the media whores, they don't understand shit. Their job is to talk the people into chaos.

Prodi wins both chambers.



"The USA appears destined by fate to plague America with misery in the name of liberty." Simon Bolivar, Caracas, 1819

by Ritter on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 06:04:58 AM EST
Time to celebrate:

http://radiocittaperta.it/nuovo/index.php

"The USA appears destined by fate to plague America with misery in the name of liberty." Simon Bolivar, Caracas, 1819

by Ritter on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 06:20:26 AM EST
Major kudos to DoDo, kcurie, de Gondi, with great input from many others...fantastic job on the election threads!! This is a nail-biter, and you all have done a great job following developments and trying to disentangle all the loose threads.

I guess I'm not allowing myself to celebrate, until we get the official word...but it sure looks hopeful!

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia

by whataboutbob on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 06:47:46 AM EST
Thanks!

Myself, I thank kcurie for the data and double-checking, de Gondi for the explanations, Ritter for the athmosphere and for keeping hope alive, and whoever I forgot for participating!

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 06:59:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It was an impressive group effort.  I felt like I was watching a team of experts at work.
by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 07:05:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Nothing like someone on your back to put pressure on you!! Je je... thanks...but  you Dodo are the master here on number. gondi on all the explanations and ritter for predicting a victory of Prodi against all odds!!!

And for Dodo: I think the campania fluctuation is the beginning of a long friendship!!!!.. without any doubt the happiest moemnt all night long!!!

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 07:18:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
you Dodo are the master here on number

But, given the silly new election law, I didn't understand shit like those media whores! :-) So you had to get me on the right track by contradicting me with your Repubblica data.

ritter for predicting a victory of Prodi against all odds!!!

All odds!? You mean all pundits :-)

I think the campania fluctuation is the beginning of a long friendship!!!!..

It is better to have six smaller parties than three bigger ones beyond 3% :-)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 08:07:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, thanks for all your efforts.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 07:11:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Official results announcement? Does Berlu ask for a recount, or some such shenanigans?

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 06:50:20 AM EST
Yes, CdL did ask for a recount, now that is the only cliffhanger issue.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 06:57:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Absolutely, there are half a million votes declared null...so 25 kvotes is just 5 % .. a long shot but not impossible.

We need gondi to explain us if the ballots are kept or thrown away (as in Spain). If they are thrown away they can only check the official reports...and then only a human mistake int he transcription could change the result.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 07:23:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What's the difference with Florida is that this time the ones asking for recount are the ones more likely to having had suppressed the vote of the other side, so what are they dreaming about...

BTW, are you now residing in Italy? You seemed so involved in it all as if. (I possibly missed again something from ET's social life!)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 07:47:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
J eje... Well Acually I do not like Berlusconi... so this is enough... but truth is I have very good friends in Italy. So it is like england... I would follow any election there closely.

Unfortuantely not so many friends in France...so maybe I am not that enegaged ther in the future.. ej jejje.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 07:53:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"Unfortunately not so many friends in France..."

I have a solution: come to the May 20th Paris EuroTribe Meet-up !

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 11:28:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
BBC is reporting this:

Prodi hails Italy poll 'victory'

An official projection shows a slim majority in the Senate - the upper house - for Mr Prodi's bloc.

But Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's coalition is disputing the results and refusing to concede defeat.

An aide to Mr Berlusconi demanded a "scrupulous" investigation into why an estimated 500,000 ballots were annulled.

Final confirmation of the result will hinge on results from Italian voters living abroad.

I sure don't want to jinx this, but all's I can say is I sure hope this isn't another Gore-Bush scenario. Someone tell me about how re-counts work in Italy?


"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia

by whataboutbob on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 06:58:26 AM EST
I love the photos,  especially the ones of Prodi with... I guess it's his granddaughter?  "Nonno for president."  Adorable.
by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 07:08:53 AM EST

Other members of Mr Berlusconi's centre-right ruling bloc appeared angry at Mr Prodi's declaration of victory.

"This is intolerable. What is this? A coup? It reminds me of South America. Auto proclamation (of victory) is constitutionally illegitimate," Industry Minister Claudio Scajola said.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4897994.stm

It seems some people have a hard time seeing the difference between an Italy ruled by a former P2 member and South America. Scajola should be very careful about invoking such words. ;)

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 08:09:23 AM EST
This is from the NYT :

But the nation's president, Carlo Azeglio Ciampi, sent a message that he would like these bitterly contested elections whose results were unclear throughout the night over and certain. He issued a statement saying that the voting was "orderly and correct."
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 09:29:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Quote: "Other members of Mr Berlusconi's centre-right ruling bloc appeared angry..."

Indeed.

Early this morning a group of furious Members of Parliament had to be stopped from going to Minister Tremonti's house to beat him up. They claim that he is responsible for their defeat because on his initiative Italians residing abroad were given the right to vote.


"The USA appears destined by fate to plague America with misery in the name of liberty." Simon Bolivar, Caracas, 1819

by Ritter on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 11:07:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's half joking, right? Right?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 11:10:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, it's not.

There are some ex-street fighters among the members of the parliamentary group of the post fascists. They had to be stopped by force this morning. A SKy TV reporter commented that Tremonti is an old man and should be left alone because he is too weak to defend himself.

"The USA appears destined by fate to plague America with misery in the name of liberty." Simon Bolivar, Caracas, 1819

by Ritter on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 11:15:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It'd be okay if he was 45 then?

That's quite mad.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 11:17:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Some MPs will have to go to prison now. So what difference does it make if they beat up the guy who, they claim, is responsible for their defeat?

"The USA appears destined by fate to plague America with misery in the name of liberty." Simon Bolivar, Caracas, 1819
by Ritter on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 11:26:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
L'UNIONE 43.32%
FORZA ITALIA 21.09%
ASS.ITAL.SUD AMERICA 10.1%
PER ITALIA NEL MONDO 7.47%
UDC 6.71%
DI PIETRO IT. VALORI 2.85%

My very inofficial prediction is: 7 L'Unione/di Pietro, 3 Forza and 2 ex-pat party seats from the overseas constitutencies. That would give in total 347 l'Unione, 280 CdL and 2 independent seats.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 09:03:14 AM EST
I think soon we'll have the final result (save for recounts).

Counting finished in North America: 1-1 L'Unione and Forza Italia representative for House, 1 senator for Senate elected.

In the rest-of-the-world region, only 3 out of 113 districts haven't yet reported Senate and 1 hasn't reported House.

In South America, it's 11 resp. 9 out of 204.

In Europe, 12 resp. 10 out of 479.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 10:41:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This is huge. Congratulations.

I will become a patissier, God willing.
by tuasfait on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 10:04:25 AM EST


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