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Italian Election Day Open Thread

by de Gondi Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:33:27 PM EST

promoted by DoDo

Voting booths close at 15:00 h for the Italian general elections. Voting has been orderly without any significant incidents yesterday and this morning. Nexus exit polls should go on line just after 15:00 h.

Voter participation on Sunday was surprisingly higher than expected. In comparison with the last general elections held on two days in 1994, turnout was 57,3% against yesterday's 66,5%. The final tally in 1994 was 86,1%.

As Ritter reported yesterday, there has been peak turnout in traditionally center-left strongholds with an all-time record in Rome of nearly 68%. Traditional conservative areas appear to follow the general downward trend of recent elections. This is an encouraging sign that the center-right message may not have galvanized their traditional constituency to vote. However, weather was very beautiful yesterday and may have pushed many voters to take the weekend off.

Official voting results will be put on line on the Minister of the Interior site.

Updates throughout the day and night.


Nexus exit poll results for the RAI TV will be put on-line on this RAI site as of 15:00 h.

Live election results will also be available on the following sites. Although they are in Italian, the sites are user friendly and fairly easy to understand.

Il Corriere della Sera.

La Repubblica.

La Repubblica has an on-line news services that updates every few minutes for those who read Italian.

Other non-stop public services on the web are RAI 3 and RAINews24.

Display:
Have there been any exit-poll "leaks"? I would assume that the parties might have some non-public information from the polling companies?

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 06:44:25 AM EST
If they have, it would be illegal in italy to say it before today at 15h (GMT+1)
by toyg (g.lacava@gmail.com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:11:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks for this. (If you sent me an email reply and I didn't answer, sorry that's because my mail server seems to be dead.)

I repaired some links.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:20:14 AM EST
Stuff it. As if the webmaster heard me, the mail server suddenly worked - but I see I already 'answered' everything in your email.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:24:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And I "answered" your previous suggestion! Get any sleep last night- or this morning rather?
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:06:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
4 hours - I am a bit dizzy today :-)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:59:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks de Gondi for putting this together. I am waiting with high expectations!!

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:01:29 AM EST
The RAI web server seems overloaded. Anyone who watched TV?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:03:05 AM EST
At last, at least the RAI homepage loads - the exit poll says 50-54% for the Left, 45-49% for the Right.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:23:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Nexus exit polls give a win by the Union between 50,5% and 54%. The Right coalition is between 45% to 49%. More details coming.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:06:25 AM EST
Parties from RAI:

FORZA ITALIA 20.0-23.0
ALLEANZA NAZIONALE 10.5-12.5
UDC 5.0-7.0
LEGA NORD / MPA 3.0-5.0
DC / NUOVO PSI 0.0-2.0
ALTERNATIVA SOCIALE 0.0-1.5
ALTRI CDL (1) 0.5-2.5
TOTALE CDL 45.0-49.0

L'ULIVO 30.5-33.5
RIFONDAZIONE COMUNISTA 5.0-7.0
LA ROSA NEL PUGNO 2.5-4.0
COMUNISTI ITALIANI 1.5-3.0
VERDI PER LA PACE 2.0-3.0
ITALIA DEI VALORI 2.0-3.5
UDEUR 1.0-2.5
ALTRI UNIONE (2) 1.5-3.0
TOTALE UNIONE 50.0-54.0

TOTALE ALTRO (3) 0.0-1.0

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:36:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Looks promising for now. But in five minutes I'm off to witness a political rally here in Budapest.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:48:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Exit poll reported on BBC World:

CdL 45-49%
Union 50-54%

Also reported the exit poll was wrong last time.

by GreatGame2 (fishy_logic_at_yahoo.co.uk) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:09:15 AM EST
I take my information from l'Unita':



"The USA appears destined by fate to plague America with misery in the name of liberty." Simon Bolivar, Caracas, 1819

by Ritter on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:12:42 AM EST
Very bad news from the senate. the difference is very  very low.
With 6 million votes counted

51.8 % Prodi
47.3 % Berlusconi

Projecting the resutls towars 100 % we have

50 % Prodi 158 seats
49 % Berlusconi. 151 seats

So it is actually very very very close!!! The low end of the exit poll

A pleasure


I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 12:06:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
10 million votes counted and no change in percentage for both lists. 51.8 (left) - 47.5 (right)

Right now it is a fair win for Prodi, but everyone predicts it is going to get closer.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 12:38:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Senate 42.36% counted: 50.81% : 48.42%

Lower House 9.5% counted: 53.81% : 45.36%

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 01:12:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There is a difference of 300.000 votes and still more than half to go. This increasingly looks like a tie...down to the last vote.

I expect projections to give soon a complete tie.

Prodi can indeed lose this one.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 01:18:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It has just widened (50.83% : 48.33%), 45.8% counted.

Isn't the counting of predominantly leftist urban areas slower in Italy, as in most other places? That would mean a widening difference later on.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 01:22:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes!!! increase to 400.000 votes.

bad news. Sicily is underreported.. and in Sicily the rigth get roughly 10 % more votes.

The projections will probably stand at 50-49.

Personal analysis , Berlusconi could have won this 50-49 and the results now will be perfectly possible statistically (Pshi2 very low still).

I am still very worried.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 01:27:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, it is undercounted... and the whole South, too... indeed it has narrowed a bit again.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 01:37:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
...but Nexus now wages to predict to the tenth percent, 50 : 48.9!

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 01:40:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Some people just do not learn!! this is impossible.. someone not knowing enough statistics did it.

Having said that, there is a huge change that this is still 50-49 and not 49.5 - 49.5 (statistically meaningful) with 0.5 accuracy.

My bet. This is going to be between a 0.5 % for Berlsuconi all up to 2 % for Prodi... But this means nothing to th newsman so nobody is reporting it. Prodi is complaining about it.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 01:49:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I noticed and write down a comment.

I would say we should reach half million votes ahead in the next updates or this will probably be down to each region.. and I would hate that since I do not know enough of the electoral system.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 01:42:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My chief worry is not this. My chief worry is that if I understood the election law right, only those parties within a coalition will be counted in the Senate race that pass 3%, plus one below 3%. For Unione, at the moment this means that Di Pietro's group will be the extra below 3%, and LA ROSA NEL PUGNO's 2.42% would be a big loss without equivalent on the other side.

I hope de Gondi or someone else can tell me that my interpretation is wrong...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 01:50:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think your interpretion is right but only at the regional level. So, it gets out if in a region it does not reach 3%. You will have to look region by region to know if the party is out of this particular region.

And this is the problem. If the difference is only 1% it all comes down to each region. If the difference is 2% is very unlikely that the majortiy of the seats would go to Berlusconi no matter what because the end of the tail of the distribution would benefit the left.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 02:05:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, in the Senate a coalition must pass with atleast 20% with atleast one party within the coalition with 3% or more. It does not matter in the Senate if there is less than 3% for minor coalition partners.

This is different in the House of Deputies where a party within a coalition must have atleast 2% on national level.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:14:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
50.28% to be exact. It stands 50.77% : 48.43%.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 01:32:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
61.72% to be exact. Narrowing... to 50.33% : 48.84%.

Final ratio prediction is now just 49.8% : 49.1%...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 02:11:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Some say it is 49.8 for Berlusconi..

The fact is.. this is a tie. It all comes down to each region....

Porca miseria!!!

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 02:13:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
70.13% to be exact. Narrowing... to 49.95% : 49.24%.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 02:47:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
150.000 votes ahead.. if we keep this result we lose the Senate but win the camera!!!!

Go Prodi go!!!

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 02:56:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If I understood the election law right, then LA ROSA NEL PUGNO's vote will be lost in the Senate race for the Left,with no equal-sized loss on the other side - a win for CdL...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 01:18:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
At 11.7%, the vote for the House widened to 54.15% : 45.17%.

Far-right: Lega at just 4.34%, Mussolini 0.6%.

If I got the election law on the the mini-parties below 2% right, then the left will lose just 0.4% more from the above totals than the right.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 01:27:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
At 20.165%, the ratio is: 53.79% : 45.66%

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 02:02:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The horror... Nexus now predicts the House at 49.6% : 49.9% for B...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 02:40:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
At 33.98%, the ratio is: 52.53% : 46.86%

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 02:50:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sicily is highly underreported.

The present advantage of 2% is highly ficticious. Prodi has 350 K votes over Berlusconi... but half of it will be gone if Sicily would have counted the same ratio as the rest.

Unfortuantely no urban area is so undereported.

The real gap is roughly 1%. It will all come down to teach region....

This is going to be a long night. Only North regions going for Prodi in higher number on the second half of the count can change this dynamics.

A Pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 01:39:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There are urban areas on Sicily, too!

But even if those won't go for CdL, we now have 40% counted and 120,000 advantage for CdL, at most 200,000 extra - while we can expect a similar amount from the North of the country for Unione!

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 01:45:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is exactly the projection giving a 50-49 if I do the numbers (roughly) correct.. I certainly hope it is right. 250 kvotes ahead effectively right now,a dn this difference reaching 400 kvotes by the end of the night. But not sure yet. 1% is too close for comfort.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 01:52:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is BAD!!!

Prodi loses in last projection.

It all comes down to each region and the present distribution is awful (with a  technichal tie 49.1 -50 for the right)

I am down. Speechless.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 02:11:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How important is the Senate relative to the House?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 02:12:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If Prodi loses the Senate he can not govern. Perfect bicameral system. You can not pass legislation without the Senate. New elections.

And now , there are contradictory reports...

It is oficaily a tie!!!!

It all go downs to each region....Jesus

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 02:15:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I go to bed then... thank you all.

I will become a patissier, God willing.
by tuasfait on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 02:19:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
well.. my take is that Prodi has probably lost the senate even winning the total vote count by half a point...sorry for this kind of good-bye.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 02:21:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
With 22 million over 37 million votes Prodi wins the total vote by only 120 kvotes (half a point).

This makes him lose the Seante and put in danger the camera. Losing the senate means that he does not win but he does not lose either. Losing senate and camera..well he loses completely. And right now this could very well be the outcome.

Awful.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 02:33:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Another nation of 18.5 million idiots. The West is doomed, I tell 'ya.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 02:44:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The camera is still virtually a tie. Do not lose hope yet. Half point in the camera means everything. So it is going to be very very close... but it is not completely lost.

But yes.. ther are roughly 18.5 million ejem...

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 02:46:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A total of 36 million. The difference between 17.9 million XXXX and 18.1 million XXXX is amazing. You lose or win an election

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 02:58:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Piepoli exit polls indicate 52% for the Union and 47% for the Berlusconi coalition. Senate seats give 167 to the Union and 142 to the Cdl.

It appears that the margin of the win will allow the left to govern.

Very high turnout today, too, especially in the North and Center. The traditional stronghold of the Right in the South did not participate as hoped.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:24:35 AM EST
Will a 30-seat majority be enough to fix a deeply divided  and strongly conservative country in (maybe) five years? Prodi and friends need to start working hard tomorrow morning, and with no mercy. Because otherwise, as soon as Berlusconi leaves politics and some "respectable" steps in (Casini, Fini, or some other stooge), the centre-right will go back to power.
by toyg (g.lacava@gmail.com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:28:30 AM EST
Tell you what:

   no - at least not now. But we think about that tomorrow - ok?

by gongo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:41:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Do these exit poll results include projections for the expatriate vote? If not how significant is that?

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:37:13 AM EST
There are no exit polls for expatriate vote. Over 42% voted as of last information.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:38:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The NEXOS poll apparently doesn't: check the regional results.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:45:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Link to live tv broadcast on Italian election results and commentary:

http://www.corriere.it/

"The USA appears destined by fate to plague America with misery in the name of liberty." Simon Bolivar, Caracas, 1819

by Ritter on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:44:35 AM EST
When do they expect to have first propper results?
by PeWi on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:48:15 AM EST
Partial results should start at 17:00 h.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:54:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks.... exciting - I love election nights when chang is in the air....
by PeWi on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:55:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, I have been working with Chinese Acrobats for the recent MoonFestival, so it is NOT a spelling mistake!
by PeWi on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:56:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It is going to be a long afternoon then...

Do they report non-oficial results from each poll table by phone as soon as the counting is done? Or they have to get with the oficial act to a central station where is validated and reported?

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:57:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Results are declared by the Minister of Interior in Rome. It's all very official and centralized.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 10:03:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How does the interior minister gets the results?

In spain there is a representative of the ministry in each poll who makes a phone call telling the ministry what the results of the poll table will be (the valid results are obtained three days later oficially).

I was wondering how the ministry gets the information? DO they have a representative in each poll station?

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 10:06:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
As far as I remember, the poll station has a ministry-nominated "president" that is responsible for the correct counting on the day. Once scrutiny has ended, he files all the required documents, including a summary sheet with the results, seals the poll boxes and brings them to a local council authority, all the while being escorted by police forces or military police ("Carabinieri"). The authority then aggregates the results and communicates them to the ministry. I don't know if he also calls the ministry or the local authority before actually carrying the documents.

All in all, it's probably one of the best and most efficient counting process in the world, because the results are always hotly contested so we have to make sure they are right. Irregularities can happen outside the polling station (and they do, especially in mafia-dominated southern areas) but they won't happen inside.

This time there's a change though, a few regions are experimenting with electronic voting. It would be interesting to see if these will bring the same sort of problems Diebold brought in the US (i.e. noticeable discrepancies between usually reliable exit-poll results and official results, public debunking of flawed security in the voting system, and widespread suspicion of substantial vote fraud).

by toyg (g.lacava@gmail.com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 10:20:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The official results are forwarded by phone to the Interior Ministry in Rome, although there's gonna be a first this time: 36 m Euros were spent to transmit the data electronically via internet. This is considered a test and not 'official'. The hard copy of the election results of each commune is brought to Rome via motorbike by agents of the council police.

   

"The USA appears destined by fate to plague America with misery in the name of liberty." Simon Bolivar, Caracas, 1819

by Ritter on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 10:34:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Insert Eddie Izzard sketch about Italian people on scooters lasciviously saying "ciaaaaao"
by toyg (g.lacava@gmail.com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 10:38:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually this time the electronic results are official. In the last two elections they were experimental.

There has been a good deal of controversy over this affair in the past weeks. There were possibilities of fraud. A police investigation a few days ago found two telephone accesses to the root directory within the Ministry and apparently remedied it.

In the best of cases the whole affair is just a rip-off for crony contracts.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 10:44:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Btw, what is Prodi's position on the troops in Iraq?
Will he be bringing the remaining ones home?
by Alex in Toulouse on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 02:24:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's what he said, yes, though we'd need de Gondi to say whether he included any 'nuances'.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 02:26:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It was a flat out promise, may be not his first action but up there on the list.

At this point it doesn't seem likely he'll be Council President.

B also promised it but his promises are written on water.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:20:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Prodi should issue a statement around 18:00 here in Rome. Crowd gathering in Piazza Santi Apostoli.

The party starts officially at 21:00.

Everybody is invited.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 10:00:39 AM EST
Isn't it a little bit too early?

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 10:03:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What can I say? That's what the news dispatch says.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 10:04:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Je je je jejejejeje

Well, let's say that they are confident... this should be good news!!

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 10:07:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The centre-right is currentrly trying to spin the "divided country" meme, I can clearly read their minds! :) Lega Nord looks to me as being almost wiped out, this would be great news.

Btw, Enrico LaLoggia from ForzaItalia is already horse-whispering: "Anche se solo dai primi dati, emerge che la Casa delle Libertà in Sicilia è di gran lunga in vantaggio sul centrosinistra".
(trad.: "Even just from first results, it's clear that [the centre-right] in Sicily is clearly doing better than the centre-left.")
Because everybody knows that Sicily's results are a reliable indication of where the "heavy votes" (i.e. criminal organizations') are still going... In 2001 ForzaItalian "owned" 100% of sicilian representatives.

by toyg (g.lacava@gmail.com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 10:36:16 AM EST
A second Nexus exit poll confirms the original projection. Massimo D'Alema declared that he expects a victory of historical importance.

Piazza SS. Apostoli is almost full. Prodi is expected to speak at 18:30 together with Piero Fassino and Rutelli.

Berlusconi is expected to arrive in Via Plebiscito at about the same time about two hundred yards away.

Very partial projections  (5 to 6% of total) on voter participation indicates nearly 83%, an inversion of the tendency. Contrary to the Right's expectations, massive turnout was only in traditional Left regions.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 10:53:27 AM EST
First results are in in the Senate with roughly three percent counted. It is roughly 55(left)-44(right)

A pleasure


I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 11:02:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Senate is quite well advanced. 1 milion votes already reported.

It is still roughly

55 % Prodi
44 % Berlusconi

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 11:08:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Regions indicate 17 regions should go to the Union. Only three certain for the Cdl- Lombardia, Veneto and Sicilia. Three regions, Piemonte, Puglia and Friuli Venezia Giulia are neck-to-neck.

Official results are running "late".

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 11:09:32 AM EST
I'm walking over to SS. Apostoli to catch the action and will report later. I see everyone else is doing a great job keeping abreast of the news and reporting it.

Thanks and catch you later.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 11:13:18 AM EST
Here you go!!!!!

Have fun!!!! As much as I had with ZP!!!!

Take care, my friend!!!

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 11:16:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Go to the Birreria Peroni at the left hand side of the square and ask Franco (he's the tall guy with baffetti) for a draught beer in Wolf's German army boot.

"The USA appears destined by fate to plague America with misery in the name of liberty." Simon Bolivar, Caracas, 1819
by Ritter on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:21:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'll do so. But I had my beers elsewhere with the right people in the wrong atmosphere.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:16:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Don't say it is over until is over.... Things are getting closer, luckily not very much.

With roughly 3.5 million votes counted (from roughly 37 million, Senate)

53.5 % (Prodi)
46 % (Berlusconi)

Let's hope it does not get any closer.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 11:38:46 AM EST
If we get a deadlock, the centre-right should have the decency to admit it's the fault of their return to the proportional system, and we should vote again. Somehow I doubt they'll do that though... </snark>
by toyg (g.lacava@gmail.com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 12:18:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Looks like today is going to be a nice day. The Left winning in Italy, and the CPE dying in France.
by Alex in Toulouse on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 11:55:10 AM EST
It is 12 million votes counted

51.3 % Prodi
48 % Berlusconi.

Porjections are still at 50-49....but there is a good chance Berlusconi will win the Senate.... I am really sorry to spoil the party right now. I am really worried.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 01:00:07 PM EST
Can you guys please put the latest results at the bottom of this diary? This way it is easier to navigate. Also, I understand the latest projections were that Prodi would lose the Senate? What is the current count? Is Prodi up by 150K or down?

Thanks!

Mikhail from SF

by Tsarrio (dj_tsar@yahoo.com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:04:07 PM EST
The coalition behind Prodi is up in the Senate race by just 105,000 at the moment, but even that is likely to melt away...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:11:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is there a link I could follow that has these updates changed periodically? I could not find the right page in the main diary link. Then again, it could be my lack of knowledge of Italian :)


Mikhail from SF
by Tsarrio (dj_tsar@yahoo.com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:14:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I couldn't either, it's very badly organised and low bandwidth. I used Ritter's link, Corriere della Sera really did a good service.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:16:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I am following repubblica.it.

The lead of Prodi is null.

There are 10 million votes left.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:22:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nexus prediction doesn't make any sense (maybe CdS replaced the sides?): 49.5 : 50 House and 52.2 : 49.8 Senate.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:28:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Don't you have comments set to embedded display? I do, and for me posting at the bottom would make it more confusing.

You can check the results live for yourself: House, Senate. I post results at around round numbers.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:15:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The question really has to be asked at this point:

Was there vote tampering?

When a result goes against opinion polls, exit polls, and the betting markets, one really has to wonder. Personally, I don't think betting markets as strongly against Berlu could be wrong. I will always assume this election was in some ways doctored.

What do you think the reaction with in Italy itself will be to this proposition?

by Ben P (wbp@u.washington.edu) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:09:05 PM EST
----right now, that almost anything that sounds vaguely feasible - in a connect the 20 dots, what do you see?  kind of way - turns my mind into a turmoil.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:15:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The resutls in sicily are awful.. they are the worst resutls of the left in years!!! 15 point behind (last election was around 10 %).

This does not mean anything. The left just did not vote?

A pleasure


I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:28:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]


You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 04:14:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In other words, only serves to reinforce the prospect of fraud. Sicilly is run by the mob, which has not insignificant ties to Berlu. Very skeptical.
by Ben P (wbp@u.washington.edu) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 04:15:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not so fast. Most of Messina and Catania is not yet counted.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 04:18:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sorry, meant Palermo and Catania. Big cities, expect the metropolitan areas to (a) be counted for longer, (b) vote more Left.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 04:19:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Been asking the same question. According to Spiegel Online Exit Polls indicate a Prodi win.

Polls Show Prodi Ousting Berlusconi

Exit polls released on Monday afternoon show Romano Prodi beating incumbant Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi with a majority in both houses of parliament.
by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:45:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Reuters: Election swings Berlusconi's way: pollster

ROME (Reuters) - The result of Italy's general election hung in the balance on Monday, as one pollster said partial returns suggested Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi might win a shock majority in both houses of parliament.

A second pollster predicted that center-left challenger Romano Prodi would just hold off Berlusconi, leaving the result of the two-day vote on a knife-edge.

Exit polls at the end of the two-day ballot said Prodi had won the election, taking between 50-54 percent of the vote. But as the count proceeded, Nexus pollsters said the center-right was advancing and could eventually end up the winner.

Center-left leaders reacted with dismay and disbelief as the polls changed direction, revealing a country split in two after five years of Berlusconi government.

Center-right leaders were cautious, saying they would wait for official results due later on Monday before commenting.

Nexus said that on the basis of its analysis of returns six hours after polls closed, the center-right was on course to win 158 of the 315 Senate seats up for grabs.

What does this shift mean. Has there been tampering or have Exit polls become meaningless?

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:53:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The polls were wrong... or well there have been some tampering. But I doubt it. In Italy there are paper ballots.

I think polls did not count on two or three very bad showings of the left in sicily and la Lombardie... the results there are killing Prodi. So if you want to look for irregualrities, try there. But I doubt it.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:54:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The senate is a tie. this means that the reuslt goes down to each region. It will all depend ont he last vote, on the last precinct.

The left-wing parties close to 3% must cross it otherwise we ahve lsot the senate.

Regarding the camer: It is bascially won by the coalition that gets more votes. this is why the total senate results is important. It is an excellent guide to which party will get the camera.

Right now, Prodi lead by by 100 kvotes with 11 million ovtes to count.

It looks really bad right now.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:16:52 PM EST
Aaargh.

I so very, very much want to get rid of Mr. Coglioni.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:21:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Prodi has no lead.

It is a complete tie with 10 million votes to go.

Senate is probably lost... if we lost the total count of votes we lose the camera and no new election will be needed. Berlusconi would have won

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:23:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is there any reason Prodi's lead has shrunk throughout the night? Is it the way each region is reporting the results? Do conservative areas report later? It just seems so odd to me, because it is exactly what we see here in the States.

Mikhail from SF
by Tsarrio (dj_tsar@yahoo.com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:28:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, southern and northern conservatites regions have reported late all night. They are catching up.. I am afraid they are still slightly behind. We can lose big time.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:30:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Things are different.

 Prodi will get more seats in the Senate than are assigned by the bonus rule applicable to the "favorite party coalition", because his coalition scored a higher percentage in Tuscany and Emilia-Romagna (more than 60%), which by far out-doe the number of administravely distributed extra seats.

In Süd Tirol the bonus rule does not apply at all. Prodi will not have to share the seats with Berlusconi. There the "winner takes it all" rule applies.

The journalists and 'pundits' didn't do their homework.

Coglioni.

"The USA appears destined by fate to plague America with misery in the name of liberty." Simon Bolivar, Caracas, 1819

by Ritter on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:37:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I used to think that the Irish PR system was an entertaining evening's statistical nightmare, but this makes us look like amateurs.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:39:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But the rule of the regional 3% makes the number of Prodi heavily down if I am not mistaken. These parties would need to get some extra votes that I do not see.

Indeed Prodi does not need the 200 kvotes to get the Senate itself, small parties in his coalition need much more less, but if you count the ratio among parties it will give you this number, roughly, for the total coalition so that the small parties cross the 3%.

Please, if I am mistaken, tell me. I will have to make a comment on my comment down about Prodi losing the senate.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:48:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I am sorry to report, but this is pseudo-oficial.
With 9 million votes to go and conservative areas undereported Berlusconi has won the senate. Berlusconi leads by 20 kvotes even when some areas are udnerreported. given the regional distribution we woudl need around 250 kvotes more even with conservative regions still lacking.The chances to win back the senate in the next hour are very low.

We can only hope to win the Camera by winning the total vote, and this looks increasingly difficult. Right now Prodi will probably lose the total vote but it is not at all certain.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:44:24 PM EST
Don't believe in the orchestrated chaos of incompetent 'pundits'. They don't know shit.

Mamma mia, in moments like this I praise Saint Stalin that he gave us a communist party with a Bolscevic discipline.

The incoming information from the territory which is collected and evaluated by the proletarian guards of the ex-communist party in Via Botteghe Oscure (literally 'obscure shops') is very different.

Prodi will win both chambers.

"The USA appears destined by fate to plague America with misery in the name of liberty." Simon Bolivar, Caracas, 1819

by Ritter on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:55:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What about the votes abroad? They are barely counted as yet, I wonder if you have some unofficial information on that.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 04:01:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Please be right.. but Prodi is headed to lose the total number of votes and therefore both house and senate as we speak (with the vote count of 27 million votes)

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 04:02:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is much more excruciating to watch than last night's "West Wing."  Oy.

Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. -Voltaire
by p------- on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:52:11 PM EST
House at 50.59% stands left 51.44% : 47.96% right.

Senate at 80.84% stands left 49.52% : 49.64% right.

I'd say House can still be won.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:52:13 PM EST
At least Sicilia catches up: Senate 73.68% counted.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:56:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But if the trend of sicily countinues it is going to kill us in the Camera... I hope there is some city down there lacking to report...5 points below the worst case scenario... this is.. jesus...what the hell are they thinking!!!

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:59:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I hope there is some city down there lacking to report...

Indeed I see that it is mainly Palermo and Catania that is behind the counting, so far both show large CdL leads that may or may not be because of villages around the cities.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 04:14:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
House will reproduce the results of the senate basically regarding the total vote. If you win the majority of the vote you win the majority of the Camera due to the new electoral law.

So we have to see what the total outcome in number of votes of the senate is.

Am I wrong?

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 03:57:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
House will reproduce the results of the senate basically regarding the total vote.

Basically, but not in detail. The party constellations are different - a lot of the smaller are in larger formations for the House race.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 04:07:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, in which direction. If we lose the ttoal vote in the senate, can we win the house? Please, tell me so... I am still waiting for the good news of Ritter. But I do not see them.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 04:11:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, that effect can be expected to be positive for the House. AQnd indeed the differences at the same level of counting are always higher for the House so far.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 04:16:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Excellent news this last one.
Thanks Dodo.. I am looking closely  Campania  and Lazio. If the two parties (Pietro and Rosa) cross the 3% in both of them we could win the seante with an statistical tie.. but I do not see this possible if Prodi does not get more votes in general terms. It seems impossible to me.. but who knows....maybe some weird city with a lot of Rosa o Pietro supporters has not been reported...

Who knows??

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 04:23:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Now Prodi is down 50 kvotes.. This looks bad.. very bad.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 04:30:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
At 61.54% of districts counted, stands left 50.86% : 48.61% right.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 04:46:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
At this stage the senate was half a point less for the left. Given that now Berlsuconi leads with half a point in the senate.... jesus.... this is the most closest election in Europe that I recall.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 04:49:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I keep a watch on Sicilia. No new data for half an hour, so Catania and Palermo still outstanding. Before that, the last few election districts reporting moved CdL's percentage slightly down.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 04:55:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sicily just took another babystep forward, again reducing the CdL percentage lead.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 05:05:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Senate is lost .. with high probability... but Repubblcia reports that we have a small chance if  La Rosa del Pugno and Dil pIetro cross each one the 3% mark in La Campania...
Right now dil pietro stands at just 3.0% and la Rosa at 2.7%.

If they get a senate seat there we still have hope (in case we win the majority of the vote in the senate) Even in this case it is highly unlikely. Without it, it seems impossible.. but Ritter says that there could be othr surprises.... I do not see them .. but who knows!!!

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 04:09:41 PM EST
WIth less than 7 million votes to go Berlsuconi leads Prodi clearly with 120 kvotes.

If this goes on this way Prodi loses completely by roughly 1 %. Right now

49.4 % Left
49.8 % Rigth

It looks bad.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 04:40:43 PM EST
Berlusconi leads now by 150 kvotes This is a nightmare.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 04:42:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The latest exit polls, and I am assuming that Corriele della Sera is confusing sides:

Senate left 49.2% : 49.8% right
House left 49.8% : 49.7% right

The House at 61% is like the Senate was 10% "earlier".

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 04:51:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Now they corrected it - and dare to display hundredths:

Senate left 49.71% : 50.29% right
House left 51.06% : 48.94% right

(The percentages are obviously without also-runs)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 05:02:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is there any hope left for the Senate?

If you can't convince them, confuse them. (Harry S. Truman)
by brainwave on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 05:09:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We win the senate if we get weird results in lazio and campania..for some weird reasons two small parties are undereported and they could show more votes there..and we come back to decent results in sicilia (clsoing a little bit the resetn gap in total counts)

I know it is small chance.. but its more than nothing.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 05:15:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What about winner-takes-all-voting South Tyrol?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 05:21:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It is not enough...I am going to double check.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 05:25:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It is certainly going to the left if the 7 seats are winner takes it all. But I do not think is enough to compensate.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 05:30:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sorry. I am not sure if it goes winner takes it all for each one of the colleges or for all Trentino. Then it is not 7 for the left but only 3. We lost one very marginally.

It looks as bad as any other place in the senate.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 05:33:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sorry. Didn't watch carefully. Those numbers are interior ministry numbers! Why they differ from CdS's, I've got no clue.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 05:32:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
House at 70.54% stands left 50.63% : 48.83% right.

Senate at 90.38% stands left 49.25% : 49.93% right.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 05:19:49 PM EST
with 5 million votes to go it seems we lost the total count of the senate unless some very weird things are going on in Sicily Campania and Lazio.
It all goes down to knowing all the details in the law about how the seats are distributed.... maybe there is a weird chance.. although I doubt it.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 05:39:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I givve up hope on Sicily. A lot of districts were just included into the Senate tally, and they again raised CdL's percentage.

(All of Italy at 92.96%: 49.11% : 50.03%)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 05:40:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It is killing us... literally....killing us.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 05:42:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
it is going to be 1% behind in the senate....it seems we are going to lose this election. Now Prodi really faces complete defeat.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 05:45:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A large number of voting districts in Palermo and Catania seem to have 'waited' for later in the evening. They had time to know how much to 'correct'. De Gondi says you can't game the vote count, I am not so sure...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 05:47:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm back. It's very hard to game a count once it's out of the electoral seat. The problem is electronic voting with USB sticks troting around the country side.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 05:54:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How does it work this electronic voting?
Is thera  possibility to change results?

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 06:35:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If there are people from every party in every poll station it is not possible to cheat after polling....this is done in Spain and there is no way to cheat. Of course you can buy votes before....

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 05:55:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
cheers for the updates
by Almanax on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 05:27:57 PM EST
thanks...given that we do not know all the details of the senate (it seems), we are stil a little bit blind...Fortunately we have the updates for the camera under control.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 05:36:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Prodi is headed for defeat.
The differences in the senate are too big. They are at 1% (300 kvotes) and they  grow. The distribution of seats does not improve at all. It gets worse.

And the camera was neck and neck but Berlusconi is pulling out a high number of votes in some regions of the senate that were not foreseen menaing defeat in the camera if results are projected with the proper correctin. Right now Prodi would lose the camera....

Only hope, Prodi is losing the camera by less than half percent of a point (projection with personal correction).. and there are around 4 million votes which could give us surprises (in the total count of the senate)....so it is not comletely lost.. yet.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 05:52:58 PM EST
At 77,23% of the votes for the Camera, Union has a 1,5% lead. The lead is fairly stable for the moment.

In the Senate at 93,66% of the votes, Cdl is 50%, Union at 49,1%.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 06:00:56 PM EST
The lead is fairly stable for the moment.

Palermo and Catania will make big dents in that lead.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 06:05:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
86% counted in Palermo, 72% in Catania. Not all that big.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 06:11:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But Silicy 1 is at 50 %, this means reducing 50 kvotes less for prodi if it comes back to nomrmal 80 %.

Real difference is around 0.5% (1 % in the best case scenario) and with the projection of the senate results for the last 15% it should go down and lose the election...Prodi badly needs to hold at  0.5% when Sicily 1 comes in if he want to win.. I am begging....

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 06:19:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That must be the Senate or Corriere della Sera stopped counting. For the House, they say Palermo has only 252/1184 districts reporting. Palermo has 807/1125.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 06:22:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's 79.49% counted, left 50.50% : 48.99% right now, most of Palermo still not reporting, and I'm going to sleep.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 06:31:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, I try to keep awake a little longer. First Senators distributed! 25:16 for the Left so far.

(Senate count: 94.74% ready; 49.12% : 50.01%)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 06:35:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes.. stay here!!!!

The camera is not lost yet...we are losing it by the smallest margin...

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 06:37:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Leftist lead now cut to 350k. I estimate Palermo alone will cut off a further 120-150k.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 06:47:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The fix is in. Palermo still quiet, but lead drops to around 300k and 1%. (84.2% counted.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 06:49:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The lead in the camera should close down to 0.5 % when sicily 1 comes in, heavily pro-berlusconi and heavily undereported...if it does not go down to 0.5 % at 85 % counted then the number of people voting differently in the senate and in the camera is significative. I indeed hope so.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 06:10:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
These results are suspicious as hell.

Here we are looking at yet another national election with vital import for the Iraq(n?) war, with a right-wing incumbent mysteriously pulling out an upset victory, completely unforeseen by exit polling, in the first election after the adoption of electronic voting.

I call bullshit.

The only small hope is that the Italians have had some experience dealing firmly with tyrants in living memory.  Let's just hope they don't flinch at dealing with Mr. Berlusconi as they did with his predecessor, Mr. Mussolini.

by yellowdoggie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 06:33:43 PM EST
Like this? (No. four from the left)

Benito

Of course, I take exception to assassination; but if somebody else did this to Berlusconi, I wouldn't weep.

I loath him with the intensity of a thousand suns. I can't bear to watch his hideous visage on the screen.

The world's northernmost desert wind.

by Sirocco (sirocco2005ATgmail.com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 06:50:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, I wouldn't say that. Italy 2006 is not Italy 1976.

But hey, Berlusconi was a member of P2.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 06:52:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Senate: less than two thousand (out of nearly sixty thousand domestic) voting districts haven't yet reported. 36 leftist and 31 right-winger senators distributed.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 06:52:38 PM EST
Now 57:53.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 06:57:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Although definitive results aren't in I can hazard a few reflections. Berlusconismo has won whether the Cdl takes the Camera or not. And at this point perhaps it would be better if both Houses go to the Right, forcing them to rule without a clear cut majority. A Union win in the Camera with a very weak government incapable of passing its reforms through both Houses is the last thing the Left can wish on itself. It is best to let the Right cook in its own broth.

The Right has left a disastrous legacy, an economy at zero growth and a soaring public debt. It's policies and laws have favoured evasion, criminality and contempt of law- the illusion to live in a sleek never-never land with a benevolent demagogue who calls them by name and surname and rips them off to their content.

Whatever the outcome, Italy has major appointments ahead. It must choose a new President of the Republic within a month by a two-thirds majority of both houses- impossible without an accord between the two coalitions. Italy is under surveillance by the European Union for its economy and must quickly show its mettle. There is a Constitutional referendum in June to approve the revolting reform passed by the previous legislature.

Berlusconi has evoked another five years to finish the job, liking himself to Reagan and Thatcher. Yet the only jobs he did in the first five years was to pass laws that favoured exclusively his interests and dismantled the heredity of Illuminism. Were he to have the power he desires, the judiciary branch will be subjugated to executive rule, just as the legislative branch and the press have already been domesticated.

Today is a dark day for Italy, for Europe, for democratic institutions. Italy has shown itself to be deeply divided. So be it.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 06:55:05 PM EST
At 1:00 two important developments. IN the camera , Prodi has resisted the projections done with the senate results and stand 0.7 % ahead even at 85 % counted. this means 250 kvotes with 2.5 million to count.

On the other hand, the total number of votes in the Senate puts Prodi 1.2 points behind Berlusconi.

Two things can be happening. Either the polls reporting from the camera follow a different path than the senate due to some regional problems or  the number of people voting different in both houses is more than the one expected.

So Prodi right now is only minimally behind Berlusconi in the Camera. The porjections are useless, everything is now within the margin of error.

The senate is lost unless some very weird results appear in Lazio and Campania (very weird they should be indeed and at the same time).

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:01:36 PM EST
Palermo started to unload its lethal cargo (sorry). Hence:

at 90.19%, left 50.14% : 49.38% right

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:02:45 PM EST
More Palermo unloading.

at 92.07%, left 50.09% : 49.43% right

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:06:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As predited by my personal projection above  we have only 8 % to count and the advantage is 0.5 %. Minimially, minimally in favour of Berlusoni if you project the senate changes  here.

Now comes the tough ride!!!!

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:14:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yet more Palermo unloading, now it gets tight:

at 96.53%, left 49.91% : 49.62% right

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:17:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
About a sixth of Palermo's voting districts still outstanding...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:19:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
HERE WE GO!!!! The last ride!!!!!

0.3 % ahead with 4 % to count...it is going for Berlusconi by the smallest margin....

Please a fluctuation!!!!!

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:21:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Palermo still has some deadly cargo, but it's now

97.84%, left 49.84% : 49.69% right

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:24:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I calculate Palermo van bring a further 25k for CdL, Unita's current lead (at 98.00% couned) is 62k.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:31:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Now it stands at 40 k ...Jesus...my projection now is Berlsuconi winning by 0.2%....please...a fluctuation...a fluctuation.:!!!

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:36:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yet Prodi hold quite well this first load of crap.

Prodi was losing now it is tied. It may win by 0.2 % if the crap from Palermo is not overwhelming.

There is a chance.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:08:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What will happen if Prodi wins the Camera while Berlusconi wins the Senate?

A new election?

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:11:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
this is the outcome. New elections very soon. I do not know how soon.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:16:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One proposal is a caretaker technical government for a year then elections again.

Above all the left should stay away from any such proposal if they want to have a chance in a year.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:24:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A democratic system which require caretaker governments or new elections as long as the government does not have a majority in both houses is, imho, quite absurd. No offence meant.

What are the pros of the Italian system?

By the way, it seems very tight in the Camera. We might be landed with another period of Berlusconi rule (the horror! The horror!).

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:40:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
With a mere 38 election districts still not reporting (out of 60 thousand), 121:114 for the Right...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:21:31 PM EST
Let's just call it definitive and have a beer.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:25:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, senate is lost... butCcamera.. I am not sure.. the fluctuation needed to go for Prodi is so small....it must happen..otherwise Berlusconi for more five years!!!

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:32:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It will be difficult for Berlusconi to rule five years with a majority of seven seats in the Senate.

He designed a law to favor the loser and now reaps the fruit having won.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:39:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I thought the law now provided for the winning coalition to receive a minimum of 340 seats, to 277 for the runner-up, regardless of how close the voting tally was (with the remainder of the seats apportioned based on the expatriate vote and from Valle d'Aosta).

Is that not correct?  340 would seem to give a decent margin in the lower house; the Senate could well be another story, though.

by The Maven on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:49:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
At 98% in the House of Deputies it's 49,85% against 49,68% to the Union's advantage.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:28:05 PM EST
98.9%: 49.82% : 49.71%, difference under 30k, Palermo will take care of that.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:35:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sorry, that was 41k. Still a faint chance, unless the sub-2% condition plays a role.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:39:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I just want to say that you and kcurie are outstanding with numbers. Great job.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:41:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
At 99.18%, down to 37k, fucking Palermo still holding back with results.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:44:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There are 499 outstanding districts, and 216 of them are in Palermo. And they don't report for ages en block. If this is not suspicious, then what.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:48:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What.. Palermo did not go down to 100 district unreported.. what is this??? some kind of joke????

This is werid.... first thing weird in all night.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:52:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hell, Forza Italia was invented in Palermo. They wouldn't let their brainchild go down.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:56:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah... it's now 406 districts not reporting of which still the same 216 are in Palermo; any guesses where to look for other 'concentrations'?...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:03:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Projection  now from the senate and palermo should be 10 kvotes for the left at 99.5 and tie with Palermo. we shoud have a tie at 99.5 % with Palermo finished. and from there...a fluctuation for the left or berlusconi wins.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:49:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Berlusconi should win the camera if the tendency of the senate is withhold in the evolution of the result. But a small fluctuation of  20 kvotes in favour of the left puts it almost on a tie...

By the way, projections on the senate is 255 (rigth) to 254 (left) because weird results in Campania for the left... unfortunately no more weird results, la repubblica claims.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:45:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You've got some fluctuation: at 99.33%, now it's back to 41k advantage. Palermo still silent about the last sixth of the vote.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:51:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It is... slight... we are 10 k above... Berlusconi would win by 0.1% ...
Palermo is missing... it should have reported and it did not... it should stand at 25 k not 40 k  ahead if reported.. what are they waiting??? to get the results form the other places???

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:56:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Surely you mean 155:154?

CdL projects 149:143 at the moment, four districts outstanding.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:58:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
yes sorry 155:154...But the cahnge in the campania has been one of the most weird things tonight... but this was in our favour....

Could some other region please have another weird result!!!!

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:04:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Apparently still behind Repubblica, Corriele della Sera now tallied 151:149.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:10:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks guys for all the updates, although it's terribly slow for me to load.
Can I ask that you open up soon another thread, with a summary of the results once they are in?

Thanks again to all.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:32:50 PM EST
It's appropriate that the judge investigating the Fiorani-Lodi Bank scandal took off the omissis on her investigation today revealing the names of the individuals involved in the scandal. She quite correctly refrained until after the booths closed.

As ever, the one and only Marcello Dell'Utri with his chum Cesare Previti, the right and left arms of Berlusconi. The three of them are incapable of not committing crimes. There's something compulsive in their behavior.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:36:00 PM EST
At 99,17% in the House it's a 0,1% advantage for the Union.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:47:01 PM EST
It is a false 0.1%.. Sicily 1 is missing...Palermo.. what the hell is going down there...right now fluctuations are coming in favour of Prodi...Palermo should have reported ans Prodi shoudl be still ahead at 0.05%...

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:01:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
99.36%: left 42.5k ahead, 392 districts not reporting, still 216 from Palermo

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:08:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
palermo partial crap is already here!!!

25 k ahead.. let's hold on please...

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:15:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
At present time there are roughly 400 poll stations not reporting. Prodi has fluctuated upwards and stands at 42 k over Berlusconi...

But Palermo has 200 polls wihtout report. Palermo is going for Berlsuconi with number never seen before.... If everything is normal Prodi should go down from 42 kv to 15 kvotes once Palermo reports....if predictions of the vote there are correct...

If a fluctuation happens in palermo... Prodi loses...so it all comes down to palermo.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:12:14 PM EST
174 polls to report. Prodi by 27,000 votes.

As I calculate, there are about 50-60,000 outstanding votes.

by Ben P (wbp@u.washington.edu) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:17:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
49.80% : 49.73% after it, or 27k lead for the left!!!

174 districts still to report, a mere 7 in Palermo.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:13:46 PM EST
Now I guess it depends on the 2% limit and the abroad vote.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:15:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Ben P (wbp@u.washington.edu) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:17:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If I got it right, only those members of a coalition are counted that passed 2%, plus the first one below. If so, bad for the Left. But I am not sure I got that rule right.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:23:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I peeked at the foreign vote; barely a quarter counted, but surprisingly clearly for the Left. Might help di Pietro.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:21:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It seems half-half for now but very low counting still.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:30:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Do you know which side PER ITALIA NEL MONDO would be alllied with?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:39:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They are conservative but I think they may not be part of Berlusconi's coalition.
by canberra boy (canberraboy1 at gmail dot com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 10:00:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It depends on the abroad vote but the total vote of the list counts, no matter the ratio. And if you win the majority of the vote with the list, you win the majority in la camera. As far as I understand the seats are redistributed so that you get 340 seats no matter what.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:25:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
With 115 outstanding, it's now 25.8k for the left.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:17:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
62 to go, 25K differennce. 30 of these are in Basilicata and Calabria. Which is good.

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:29:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Flcutuation, fluctuation!!!!

We did it!!!! Please no more flcutuations!!!! now, now.. no more... normal course..No flcutations any more!!!

Campania.. I love la cmapania.. the flcutuation came form la campania.....!!!!

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:17:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So it's going to be 340 seats for the left and 277 for the right, but a rightwing Senate with seven senators more.

Almost all life-time senators are left-leaning. The vote abroad is dismal as far as counting goes.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:23:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You have to explain that 2% thing!

If both coalitions can only count those above 2% plus the first below, with current numbers that's an extra punishment of 0.43% for the Left, that is a victory for the Right.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:29:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Caveat: the law is very complicated. In the Camera dei Deputati a coalition must have atleast 10% of which one party atleast 2% in order to designate seats. If a party runs alone it must garner atleat 4%. Both coalitions have passed the 2% threshold. Therefore, they get all the seats they are entitled to.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:35:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes.. we win!!!! the Camera

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:40:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That cannot be...if this is the case I am going to die.: this means we lose...no.. you should be able to count anyone of the list...otherwise.. lost

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:37:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Now just 62 districts outstanding, difference 25.7k: impossible to turn around.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:25:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The flctuation should be enormous to change it.

I think we can safely say that Prodi and all europe owes la Campania a good visit!!!

The senate goes to Berlusconi but it is not clear that some other weird stuff could not happen with the votes aborad....

So la camera to Prodi with very high probability
Senate to berlusconi with high probability

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:33:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thank you so much for your coverage. If you guys can, could you  let us know what happens now that this scenario is likely to play out?

Thanks!

Mikhail from SF

by Tsarrio (dj_tsar@yahoo.com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:34:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I didn't catch the foreign vote count on La Repubblica's site, nor where it stands out??
by Alex in Toulouse on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:35:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ok just saw it :))
It's the globe!!
by Alex in Toulouse on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:36:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As I understand it, there are still 357,000 uncounted voters in Europe alone!!??
Or are the "sezioni" not equal in size? (ie. I extrapolated 70,000 voters for 80 out of 479 sezioni)

I doubt they're equal in size, if they only represent Consulates and Embassies ...

by Alex in Toulouse on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:42:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You'll see a spinning globe at the bottom of the index page for each house. Try to catch the area you're interested in. Here's the index for the camera.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:42:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I only noticed the globe after posting my comment :))

In Europe the vote is clearly in favour of the Left so far, and if my pseudo-extrapolation is valid then this is really good news.

by Alex in Toulouse on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:44:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
the vote from aborad could tie the senate if it is overwhelmingly for the left.....

Now.. the next question for Gondi.. how much Prodi can trust te vitalici senator to vote with him??? If he can trust them..all we need is a tie.... the senate would be within our reach too!!!

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:51:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
7 new sezionis counted since my last comment on Europe, and already Prodi goes from 55.8% to 55.9%!

Auguriiiiii!!!!

btw: that's about 8000 more for 7 sezioni, so my extrapolation (see below) may actually work. This would be very good news for Prodi, as he could gain an extra lead of 110 000 votes on Berlusconnard (out of 357 000) from Europe alone. Is this correct? I'm tired so may be just jumbling messages in my head.

by Alex in Toulouse on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:56:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What a wild ride this has been!

If you can't convince them, confuse them. (Harry S. Truman)
by brainwave on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:01:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We like to put on a good show.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:09:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You have to love the Italian knack for penalty shootout finishes ;))
by Alex in Toulouse on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:11:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My idea is that what really counts to win the elections is territorial italy. The rest is added on and is therefore functional to governance but not necessary to form a coalition majority.

Now Europe most likely will go to the Left- after all they aren't subject to having their brains fried by Italian TV. It seems South America is voting left also by a recent very partial count.

Life-time Senators are in a class of their own. Often they are not present due to age. However, with the exception of Andreotti, must lifers have the intellectual rigor and breath of humanity common to progressive ideas. So they tend to vote with the Left without ever going down into the brawl of parties.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:07:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
36 outstanding, 27.5k lead for the left.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:34:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
how the Italians abroad vote factors in? Right now, it seems like that could be a real boost for the Left.
by Ben P (wbp@u.washington.edu) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:37:49 PM EST
The vote abroad will decide the senate...

campania changed everything...it gave a boost to the  left in the senate out of nowhere...now foreigners must fix this results and maybe change one or two seats..enough so that the left wins with the vitalici.

I am going to check the nubmers

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:45:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Here's to hoping!

If you can't convince them, confuse them. (Harry S. Truman)
by brainwave on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:48:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
To hope! This might really work!

Only thing left to do is listening to Beethoven's Ninth, Il Canto degli Italiani and Avanti popoli.

Come on, make this work!

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:57:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Avanti o popoloooooo, alla riscoosaaa, bandiera roossaaa, bandiera roossaaa (..) trionfera... bandiera rossa deve trionfa, bandiera rossa deve trionfa, bandiera rossa deve trionfa evviva il communismo e la libertà !!!
by Alex in Toulouse on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:03:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So it's over. According to la Repubblica the Cdl has only one senator more than the Union. The vote abroad could overturn the situation in the Senate but in the final analysis the difference will be minimum. This will force the coalitions to be constantly vigilant.

The Union has won the Camera. Prodi is the next Council President but it will be very difficult to govern with half the nation on the other side. Prodi has promised to unite Italy yet nothing is now more apparent than its division.

Will he overcome this grave situation? He has promised to be radical in his approach and perhaps it may be the best ground at the moment to seize the initiative. Prudence and conciliation may be nice on paper but useless in the Italy we have inherited.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 08:57:02 PM EST
Gondi, could you detail us the situation in the Senate?

I mean,

  • definite number of seats won domestically (is it 153:148 as according to CdS, or 155:154 as according to la Repubblica?),
  • what are lifetime senators and how many are there (are they the difference between the two newspapers?)
  • how many foreign senators will there be,
  • where do the exile parties stand on the left/right divide?


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:07:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I know there are 6 foregin seats extra.

I also noticed that on the web pages it is 153 to 148 but this is short of the total number domestically (309  is the proper number).. what is going on?

And yes.. I also want to know about the vitalici.

A pleasure


I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:15:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The 153:148 lacks 6 extra seats for trentino (Ritter extra, recall?) on the left and 2 extra on the right for Trentino too

This makes 155:154..and later we will know the 6 extras.  It all comes to that... ...and the vitalici.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:20:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You've got it! Thanks to you (and thanks to Ritter, who was right in his prediction after all!)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:28:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'll go with Repubblica's account for now.
Lifetime Senators are appointed by the President of the Republic for outstanding merits. Also, all ex-Presidents of the Republic become lifetime Senators.

Usually they would abstain from voting confidence to a new government or over a law.

There will be six foreign Senators.

No non-coalition party won enough votes to be in Parliament. There will only be the two coalitions with regional minority language parties.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:28:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks!

BTW, to you and kcurie and other night-owls: to end the comment overflow, I created a second Italy elections thread on the frontpage, please migrate over!

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:31:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
can we trust the vitalici not to torpedo Prodi if he wins the four senators abroad?

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:10:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The senate is now oficiallya t 155 to 154 for the right with the vitalici senators claiming neutraility in the future...

but there are some seats for titalians living abroad:

Europa (2 senatori); America meridionale (2); America settentrionale e centrale (1) ; Africa, Asia, Oceania e Antartide (1)

So, from this list we can see that 4 seats could go towards the left if the left gets great support... even 6 is possible geting overwhelming support.

So if we win the foreign vote we win the Senate...

So, it is indeed possible if all teh results withold and the italians living abroad go for the left....

Italians in Africa Asia, Oceania and the US are more imortant than the rest... winner takes it all!!!

A pleaure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:06:36 PM EST
The Cdl may contest the results according to one of their spokespersons. According to him the Cdl won by 350000 votes in the Senate and therefore deserve to rule.

They made the law. Now eat it.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:15:45 PM EST
Shall we call it a day?

...and take Jerome's advice later, when one of us wakes up.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:30:34 PM EST
I already took it :-)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:36:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It was nice to follow, and thanks to all of you for posting updates here (I then only had to read your most recent comments every so and then, and since I was working this was very convenient).
by Alex in Toulouse on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 09:38:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, a special thanks to de Gondi, DoDo and kcurie for the excellent coverage.  I have followed this story since I got up this morning - over 5 hours ago.  You must be tired!
by canberra boy (canberraboy1 at gmail dot com) on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 10:09:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, thank you everyone for the running commentary on incoming results. You guys were the best!

What a newsday that was (Italy - Peru - France - USA immigration demos). Are we witnessing more history? It has been quite a whirlwind over the recent past!

Oh, and good morning euros! it's bedtime here.

by Fete des fous on Tue Apr 11th, 2006 at 02:07:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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