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Election day open thread

by whataboutbob Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:04:49 AM EST

Note: Since Sunday there are elections in Italy, Hungary, and Peru, perhaps people can use this thread to post any election related news and updates.

Bumped & updated Monday midday by DoDo: now with info on the Peruvian elections below the fold, and preliminary Peruvian and final Hungarian results in the comments!

Also check out de Gondi's Italian elections open thread, which will be front-paged at around when polls close in Italy, 15h.


Update [2006-4-10 6:55:45 by DoDo]: Some background on the Peruvian elections:

  • People will vote for President (and two vice-presidents), Congress, and the Peruvian members of the Andean Parliament.

  • To win Presidency a candidate has to win 50%+1, if not in the first round then in the run-off between the first and second-placed (7 May). Congress is elected in multi-seat races in 25 regions. The Comunidad Andina de Naciones is a trade bloc modelled on the EU, of countries in the Northwest of South America; its Parliament is elected proportionally with nation-wide lists.

  • Polls predicted a first-round victory for Ollanta Humala Tasso, a left-nationalist former army officer with controversal past and family, but the backing of most other left-wing leaders across South America. Runners-up are Lourdes Flores Nano, a both socially and economically right-wing candidate, and Alan García Pérez, a former left-populist President. Second round was predicted between Humala and Flores, with the latter winning.

  • Official links for the elections junkies: click through from the election count mainpage (resultados=results, Barrera Electoral=seats won[?], CONGRESALES>Estadísticas>Distribución votos por organización política=distribution of votes for Congress among parties), some might be off-line

Update [2006-4-9 10:10:44 by DoDo]: Some background on the Italian elections:
  • People will vote for a lower house of Parliament and a Senate.

  • After Berlusconi had the election law changed, the re will be proportional vote only. That is, people will vote on party lists in 26+2 regions (+2: the Aosta valley and Italians abroad). Parties will have to pass 2% to get in (4% if not part of a coalition), and there will be bonus seats for the winning coalition of parties.

  • The Senate is similar, but winner's bonus is counted per region not nationally, and thresholds are higher.

  • All parties with a chance to get in assembled into two big blocks: the left-wing L'Unione and the right-wing La Casa delle Libertà (incumbents). The former includes everything from communists and greens through the centre-left to pro-European centrist and right-of-centre splinters, the latter everything from more centre-left spliters through Berlusconi and post-fascists to the hardcore racists of the Northern League and Mussolini's granddaughter. The last polls showed a 4-6% leftist advantage.

  • Official links for the elections junkies: participation main page with results [slow!].
Update [2006-4-9 9:40:34 by DoDo]: Some background for the Hungarian elections:
  • Two-round mixed election system:
    1. In the first round, people vote for individual candidates in 176 election districts, and separately on party lists in 20 regions.
    2. Where none got 50%+1, all individual candidates above 15%/the first 3 individual candidates go into a runoff (second round) two weeks later.

  • The distribution of seats for votes is rather complex, here is a simplified version:
    1. there will be the 176 individually elected candidates,
    2. up to 152 seats will be distributed among the party lists in the 20 regions,
    3. to somewhat compensate 1), surplus list votes and the first-round votes of losing individual candidates are added, and according to them, at least 58 seats are distributed between national party lists.

  • According to polls 8 days ago, parties with a chance to get in (i.e. pass 5% nationally or 10% in one of the regions): MSzP (Socialists) 43-46%, Fidesz (Young Democrats, right-populist) 39-43%, SzDSz (Free Democrats, [neo]liberal) 4.8-5.5% (incumbents: MSzP-SzDSz coalition)

  • Official links for election junkies: participation, results (after 19h Central European Summer Time)

I couldn't resist this article that Fran noted from The News in yesterday's European Breakfast: Berlusconi unfit to be Italian PM’

LONDON: Silvio Berlusconi does not deserve to be re-elected as Italy's prime minister in this weekend's vote, The Economist said on Friday, calling instead for Italians to elect his rival. The magazine said it stood by its view from the 2001 election that the Forza Italia party leader was "unfit" for office because of his conflicting media business interests and alleged involvement in financial scandal.(...)

In a damning opinion piece entitled "Basta, Berlusconi" (Enough, Berlusconi), the authoritative weekly said the 69-year-old had done little to resolve the conflicts of interests created by his ownership of the three main private television companies in Italy.

His premiership, meanwhile, had been "disfigured, by repeated attempts, including an avalanche of new laws, to help him avoid conviction in legal trials."

Those efforts had "besmirched" prosecutors and judges as well as undermined the credibility of the country's legal system, it added, noting that there had been an overall rise in corruption, tax evasion and illegal building.

We are watching today's election with a great deal of interest...

Display:
When do polls close in Italy and Hungary, anyway, does anyone know? (And are there any other elections going on elsewhere? The Peruvian election stands watching, because another Leftist could win there...though I am less clear how good this fella is...)

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Sun Apr 9th, 2006 at 07:38:56 AM EST
In Hungary, they close at 1900 Central European Summer Time (1700 GMT).

At 13h, participation was 38.22%, 2% below what it was four years ago. (our years ago, it was a record 70.5% at the end of the day, so I'd expect only 60-65% this time.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 9th, 2006 at 09:09:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Italy: voting until Monday 15h; at midday on Sunday, participation was just 17.6% (4% lower than last time).

Hungary, 15h participation: 48.89%, already almost 3% below last time's.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 9th, 2006 at 10:19:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Just in, Hungary 17:30 participation: 61.72%, nearly 4% below what it was four years ago. (One pollster said that [final] participations below 58% and above 63% benefit the governing coalition.)

In Italy, the next participation data will be issued at 19h and 22h today.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 9th, 2006 at 12:10:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In 2001 voting was held on one day, this time also on Monday. The two elections cannot be compared on turnout for this reason.
At 19:00 52,3% had voted against 59,1% in 2001.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Sun Apr 9th, 2006 at 02:15:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah that's why! Good to hear.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Apr 9th, 2006 at 03:14:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
From the BBC: Race close as Peru elects leader:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4892688.stm

Did you know that in Peru voting is mandatory? That's a novel idea...

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia

by whataboutbob on Sun Apr 9th, 2006 at 11:29:17 AM EST
IIRC it is in Belgium and Australia, too: those abstaining are fined.

From the polls at the Wikipedia site, I gather Ollanta is likely to win the first round comfortably but lose the second, again comfortably (for his conservative runoff opponent).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 9th, 2006 at 12:00:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In Hungary. There were no exit polls this election, but two pollsters polled on election day:

* Szonda-Ipsos (close to Socialists):

MSzP 44%
Fidesz 42%
SzDSz 5.1%
(small right-wing party MDF 4.2%)

* Medián (fairly independent, best prediction four years ago):

MSzP 46%
Fidesz 41%
SzDSz 5.5%
(MDF 4.7%)

Both pollsters predict around half of the individual districts to be won in the first round, going at about 3:2 to MSzP and Fidesz. (But Fidesz is likely to win most of the remainder in the second round, I note.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 9th, 2006 at 01:10:55 PM EST
  1. Fidesz: 43.24%
  2. MSzP: 43.19%
  3. SzDSz: 5.49%
  4. MDF: 4.90% (!)

As the capital Budapest is behind in the counting, and in Budapest Fidesz is much weaker while the other three stronger, the list leadership will turn at any moment, and MDF has some chance to get in. (I'd be happy if they do.) Pollsters credit MDF's improved showing on the effect of a TV debate of the four party leaders on Thursday, in which the woman leading MDF had the best showing.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Apr 9th, 2006 at 03:20:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It just turned:

  1. MSzP: 43.24%
  2. Fidesz: 43.10%
  3. SzDSz: 5.56%
  4. MDF: 4.91%

Predicted first round individual seat victories:

MSzP: 34
Fidesz: 32
MSzP-SzDSz joint candidates: 5

(the other 105 election districts would go for a second round)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 9th, 2006 at 03:23:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Four-party parliament!!! So there is a surprise after all:

  1. MSzP: 43.28%
  2. Fidesz: 42.37%
  3. SzDSz: 6.11%
  4. MDF: 5.01%

I am happy about MDF's miralce rescue, so the two-party system is a bit further away... even if this complicates the outcome: it may be that MDF will be in the position to pick either Fidesz or MSzP+SzDSz.

They told beforehand that if they get into this situation, they won't pick the latter, but if they pick Fidesz, the price will be to give party leader Ibolya Dávid the PM-ship! Now that would be interesting...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 9th, 2006 at 04:03:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Why will MDF be able to pick? From what you have reported I thought MSzP+SzDSz would have a majority of the seats. They are bigger then Fidesz+MDF in the proportional voting and you said SzDSz would probably come out ahead in the single seat elections?

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Sun Apr 9th, 2006 at 07:05:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I meant MSzP last time I wrote SzDSz (mixed them up for some reason).

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Sun Apr 9th, 2006 at 07:06:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
However, I said Fidesz will have a rebound on single seats. To demonstrate what I meant:

In 2002, MSzP+SzDSz list vote was 47.62%, Fidesz+MDF's was 41.07%, but individual districts were won 95:81 by Fidesz+MDF - of this, those won in the second round by an even higher margin: 75:56.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 9th, 2006 at 07:24:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Then I see. Mixed it up. Must be something with all the sz in the party names.

Btw, are there no independents or regional party that will take a seat or two in the individual districts?

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Sun Apr 9th, 2006 at 07:28:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There is a single independent (supported by a local civil group) who won a plurality, e.g. will go into the second round first-placed, where he is almost certain to win. And even this single one is spectacular, for people long figured that single votes will decide which party wins, and vote accordingly. (For example, the leader of MDF is the most popular politician after the [ceremonial] President, but she only got 13% as an individual candidate.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Apr 9th, 2006 at 07:49:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
all the sz in the party names

The sz is actually what s would be in most other languages (for example in "son").

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 9th, 2006 at 07:55:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I can't stay up any longer...

List votes:

  1. MSzP: 43.26%
  2. Fidesz: 42.03%
  3. SzDSz: 6.45%
  4. MDF: 5.04%

Still above 1% (thresold for state supports): far-right MIÉP+Jobbik at 2.20% (since Fidesz swallowed part of the far-right, I'm only partially happy)

Single seats:

MSzP(+SzDSz) won 38
Fidesz won 28
still up for grabs in second round: 110

Fidesz would need to win the second round at around 66:44 to prevent an MSzP+SzDSz majority (and even more to prevent depending on MDF). Difficult, but not impossible. Should be the mother of all mad campaigns, the next two weeks.

(To those who followed my dilemmas, I'll disclose and explain my own vote tomorrow.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 9th, 2006 at 07:41:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Participation: 67.83% (second highest since free elections, only exceeded by 70.53% in 2002)

List votes above 0.1%, with those entering parliament bolded (percentage point change from 2002):

  1. MSzP: 43.21% (+1.16pp)
  2. Fidesz+KDNP: 42.03% (+0.96pp, with MDF +6.00pp)
  3. SzDSz: 6.50% (+0.93pp)
  4. MDF: 5.04%(-)
  5. MIÉP+Jobbik (far-right): 2.20% (-2.17pp)
  6. Munkáspárt (unreformed 'communist' far-left): 0.41% (-1.75pp)
  7. Centrum (nonaligned): 0.32% (-3.58pp; the big losers, the party fell apart)

*A bit of complication. In 2002, Fidesz and MDF had a joint list while the latter was well below 5% on its own in opinion polls; this time, Fidesz is on a joint list with the Christian Democrats [KDNP], who were even below 1% in opinion polls. So you first see the difference of the 2006 and 2002 joint lists, then the difference of Fidesz/KDNP+MDF(2006) and Fidesz/MDF(2002). So Fidesz likely gained c. 4pp, most from the far-right and Centrum; and MDF 2pp, most from Centrum.

If Fidesz goes into opposition, we'll even have a five-party parliament, because Fidesz would allow KDNP to form a faction of its own for tactical gain (commission seats).

Single seats:

MSzP(+SzDSz) won 38
Fidesz won 28
still up for grabs in second round: 110

Fidesz would need to win the second round at around 66:44 to prevent an MSzP+SzDSz majority jointly with MDF, and at around 75:35 to win on its own. Neither is impossible if they manage a strong mobilisation for the second round (like they almost did in 2002).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 04:15:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Those who followed my Campaign Watch diaries know that I didn't like the platform of any of the awailable choices, nor the main persons, and see a danger in both main parties - so it was hard to decide until the very end (in fact I only decided on Sunday morning). The considerations left for me were:

  • Fidesz is more dangerous and should be taught a lesson
  • I don't want a two-party system
  • if the (neo)liberals (SzDSz) stay in, the two big parties will be forced to define themselves economically against them
  • economists thought Fidesz is more likely to repair the ballooning budget deficit with radical (social) cuts, as they could blame the previous government
  • a philosopher-public-writer I respect, an ex-liberal turned hard left (more left than me, I think he'd score -9.95/-9.95 on the Political Compass) declared he won't vote "none of the above" this time, but sees attacks on civil freedoms from Fidesz as minimal reason to vote for the economically unacceptable liberals
  • both the local MSzP and SzDSz candidates were Party members before 1990, but the former was a medical gymnast while the latter a district Council president, then an entrepreneur
  • two predictions said that my district will be one of the few in Budapest where Fidesz has a chance to win.

So, with clinched teeth, I voted SzDSz on party list and for the MSzP single candidate. (The latter looks set to win in the second round.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 04:39:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
will not have results until tomorrow.. isn't it?

What do polls do overnight? Are they closed and guarded? or the results are partially counted?

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun Apr 9th, 2006 at 01:22:22 PM EST
Electoral seats are closed with locks and sealed overnight, windows and ballot boxes included. The keys are held by each electoral president and a person designated by him/her.

Seals are signed by all officials present in the seat. The rooms and building are guarded by police, carabinieri or Guardia di Finanza throughout the night.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Sun Apr 9th, 2006 at 02:30:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It seems to me that the Italian electoral system is not a proportional system at all, but has been designed to be a disproportional system so as to manufacture a majority of Parliamentary seats when the proportional result would give a different outcome.

This is an old idea in Italian politics. Mussolini first enacted it and the Christian Democrats at one time thought of reintroducing it.

The bonus provision has the potential to produce a very unfair result, particularly if there were more than two significant groups competing with each other.

I suspect this electoral system will only be used once, particularly if the left does come to power.

by Gary J on Sun Apr 9th, 2006 at 04:59:18 PM EST
It is in the Left's program to change the electoral law immediately.

The law is possibly unconstitutional and may be ruled so before the year is out. This however will not change the computed fact of these elections.

President Ciampi could have refused to sign it on these grounds, but he didn't. The rest is current history.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Sun Apr 9th, 2006 at 05:06:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
At 22:00, 67,6% of eligible voters had voted, against 65,4% in the 2001 elections. This seems to indicate an inversion in voter turnout trends.

According to the rightwing coalition, a high turnout would favour them which could explain B's recent campaign strategy based on hate and fear.

The use of the word "coglioni" drove a strong message home to people who usually abstain from voting, a class of voters euphemistically described as "lazy voters" in specialized literature. In effect the rightwing message is a macho message to a sector of the population that places value on having balls, rather than being dickheads.

It is the lazy voter that determined B's win in 2001, just as Bush's win in Ohio.

Another strong message, apparently ignored or glossed over by the international press, was the use of Mussolini symbolism by B in the closing days. He made what appeared to be a fascist salute (erroneously attributed to the ancient Romans) in his Rome appearance last Wednesday in front of a delirious audience. On Friday after his Naples speech he presented himself on the balcony of the Prefettura while a crowd in ecstasy chanted Duce! Duce!

B's coalition- much to the joy of his American patrons- is allied with extremist neo-fascist parties.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Sun Apr 9th, 2006 at 05:02:36 PM EST
a class of voters euphemistically described as "lazy voters" in specialized literature

Do you mean that in Italy, lazy voters are predominantly right-wing?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 9th, 2006 at 06:00:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In my diaries I have characterized B's coalition as rightwing, not center-right as most of the press does. Even the so-called moderate parties within the coalition are more reactionary than conservative. However, I do not consider his electorate entirely rightwing nor do I think that a consistent number of the people who vote for him perceive themselves as rightwing.

The term "lazy voter" was coined by Donatella Campus in her study of recent general elections. In short, a "lazy voter" tends to rely on a stronger emotional approach to choice in information processing. It's nothing new. Rove uses it as well as B.

Studies by ITANES (Italian National Election Studies- Perché ha vinto il centro-destra, 2001) show that the Casa delle libertà has a larger socio-cultural base than the Union. However it is characterized by a lower level of instruction and a disinterest for politics. The average Cdl voter is also less informed about politics and society. Surprisingly, there is not much difference in the time spent in front of the TV by both Union and Cdl voters. What is disquieting is that Cdl voters preferred to watch Mediaset channels and news, which is notoriously biased. (In the past five years this has changed: now all channels are strongly biased.)  In 2001 the Cdl was able to win over a largely anti-political, disinterested and backwards sector of the population with the traditional conservative base.

B has never made a secret of his strategy:


"The average Italian is a kid in junior high who isn't even sitting in the front row...These are ones I must talk to." (Corriere della Sera, December 10, 2004)
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Sun Apr 9th, 2006 at 07:06:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The term "lazy voter" was coined by Donatella Campus in her study of recent general elections. In short, a "lazy voter" tends to rely on a stronger emotional approach to choice in information processing. It's nothing new. Rove uses it as well as B.

Ah, I understand.

I was thinking of lazy voter the way for exampler our Spanish readers used it: not a voter with weak preferences, but a voter with less determination to participate. Usually leftists, unfortunately.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 9th, 2006 at 07:11:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
At 22:00, 67,6% of eligible voters had voted, against 65,4% in the 2001 elections.

?????

My link seems to say 66.5% now and 81.4% last time. For Rome, they say 67.4%/80.9%.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 9th, 2006 at 06:06:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I notice that it was changed. There must have been an error before or just partial results.

The final voter turnout in the 2001 general elections was 81,4%. As I said above, in 2001 voting was held on one day, whereas this time Italians vote until 15:00 tomorrow.

My impression is that more than 81,4% will vote this time. As Ritter has noted, there's very high turnout in traditionally Left regions.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Sun Apr 9th, 2006 at 07:25:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Fingers crossed!

Any reports of irregularities/attempts at fraud?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 9th, 2006 at 07:51:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
At 19:00 h HIGH voter turn out in the heart lands of  the communist, socialdemocratic and catholic left leaning parties.

Tuscany 58%
Emilia- Romagna 62,1%
Umbria il 55,8%
Trentino - Alto Adige, (Süd Tirol) 57,9%

Very LOW voter turn out in the South, where Berlusconi and and Fini won the majority of the votes.

If this trend holds true also tomorrow (high mobilisation of the left, low on the right) Prodi will win the election.

Or as the communist newspaper Il Manifesto titles:

It is already tomorrow!



"The USA appears destined by fate to plague America with misery in the name of liberty." Simon Bolivar, Caracas, 1819

by Ritter on Sun Apr 9th, 2006 at 05:05:10 PM EST
22:00 Emilia - Romagna 75,3 Rome 68 (record turn - out) Veneto 72 Umbria 70, Liguria 66,4 Molise 66,3 Calabria 54,3 Campania 59,3 Puglia 59,5, Abruzzo 65,4

"The USA appears destined by fate to plague America with misery in the name of liberty." Simon Bolivar, Caracas, 1819
by Ritter on Sun Apr 9th, 2006 at 05:21:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
  1. Humala 28.073%
  2. Flores 26.372%
  3. García 25.192%

Surprisingly close - there is a slight chance of Flores not making it to the second round! The rest under 10%.

A rather high 11.338% of votes counted so far are invalid, most of it blank votes - but note: voting is compulsory.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 10th, 2006 at 07:03:50 AM EST


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