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The Day of the Oslo Warning

by Jerome a Paris Sat May 6th, 2006 at 09:55:03 AM EST

On 22 June, at 8am, all operators in the oil sector in Norway received the same message from the authorities: "Starting today, Norway will no longer authorise oil exports from its territory. You are required to reduce your production accordingly, effective immediately. Delays will only be tolerated for imperative technical or safety reasons". At the same time, a communiqué was sent to all major press agencies, with the similarly terse content. "As of today, for national security reasons, Norway has decided to suspend all oil exports. Further information will be communicated at 1pm today. All operators in Norway and Norwegian waters have been required to reduce production, effective immediately".

From the diaries ~ whataboutbob


Panic broke immediately in trading floors in Asia, where it was the middle of the afternoon, and in Europe, where the trading day was just starting. After 2 minutes, oil prices reached 85$/bl ; after 7 minutes, the symbolic level of $100 was breached, but that was not enough to calm down anything. After 15 minutes, the prices has reached 145$/bl and showed no sign of slowing down in their vertigious increase, as traders frantically tried to grab whatever cargoes were available on the market. Frantic phone calls to oil companies on the ground and to Norwegian authories yielded little. Oil companies confirmed having received the instructions, and were already urgrently assessing the technical constrants of shutting down production on their platforms.

After 45 minutes, with most of the world still unaware of the sudden crisis, oil prices had reached 232$/bl and started gyrating wildly in the $200-$250 range. Behind the scenes diplomatic activity was building up, and pressure on the Norwegian authorities became rapidly intense, but the only reaction from all Norwegain ministries or Statoil, the national oil company was "We confirm the decision to suspend exports but we have no information beyond the communiqué that has been published." The first official reaction came from Brussels, with a short communiqué from the European Commission urging the Norwegians to reverse their decisions and to explain the rationale behind such a disruptive announcement which put Norway in direct breach of trade agreements and association agreements with the EU. The communiqué also urged Europeans not to panic, by reminding that Europe had 90-days' worth of strategic reserves and that consultations on whether it was necessary to tap into these reserves were already under way. It stated that in any case oil supplies in Europe would be maintained and expected a quick resolution of this crisis.

That swift reaction, and the explicit reference to the strategic reserves calmed down the markets, which nudged down prices to $160. Similar comments and reactions started pouring from European capitals, all strongly urging Norway to reverse its incomprehensible decision. Nevertheless, all European stock markets opened sharply down, with losses between 5 and 10% and wild price movements. The shares in oil companies were especially volatile, as operators tried to assess the losses from lower production in Norway versus the potential income gains on overall production thanks to higher prices. Oil stockes generally bucked the trend of the market and were higher.

 But the announcement by Total, at around 10:30 am, that a Norwegian Navy ship was cruising nearby the Ecofisk platform, one of the biggest in the Norwegian offshore sector, and had been in touch with their platform operators to confirm the instructions of the morning, sent the markets into a new frenzy. Prices reached $440 per barrel and remained above $400.

More reactions came in. OPEC indicated its surprise and confirmed that it would increase production as much as capacity allowed to compensate for the future missing Norwegian production. Saudi Arabia announced that it would put on the market immediately an extra 1.5mb/d of spare capacity. However, these declarations did little to reduce prices as the Saudi crude was known to be of an inadequate quality for the European refineries suddenly deprived of Norwegian crude.

As the deadline for the 1pm anouncement approached, markets held their breath and trading slowed down, with prices remaining around 400$ per barrel. Teams within oil companies, traders and banks tried to assess the impact on the global oil supply of the brutal disappearance of close to 3mb/d (just above 3% of world production) and tried to guess how long the situation would last. Norwegian authorities, despite massive pressure from other governments and hounding by everybody from the press, oil companies and onlookers, stuck to their two line statement.

The 1pm announcement, read by a government spokesman and shown on every television channel  on the planet, struck like a bomb.

"World oil production has been stagnating in the past year, even as global demand has kept on increasing briskly,despite sharply rising prices. It is the official consideration of the Norwegian government that, for all practical purposes, peak oil has occurred, and we all have to adjust to a new world of scarce and expensive oil. In this context, the government of Norway considers that it is its duty to preserve for future generations the limited reserves of this most valuable resource that have been endowed to the country, and it has thus decided to totally suspend all exports. It was decided to make this announcement without warning to avoid market manipulation and limit speculation. The authorities of Norway will liaise with all operators to ensure a timely and safe climbdown from current production levels to those required by the internal needs of Norway, taking into consideration existing production plans. It is the opinion of the government that expected higher prices for oil in the future will be adequate compensation to all operators for lower production levels. Navy ships have been dispatched in the offshore areas to enforce, if necessary, the suspension of exports, but we trust that all will behave responsibly. There will be no further communications today".

The effect was immediate. Prices started climbing again, as panic set in and buyers tried to get access to oil at any price while sellers disappered. Prices jumped in discrete increments. 460$, 534$, 647$, 752$. Brutal gyrations happened.

At 1:15 pm, the IEA, the USA and the European Commission send a joint communiqué announcing that 3mb/d of oil from the strategic reserves would be released immediately on the markets in order to stabilise prices in the short term by compensating for lost Norwegian supply. The market took a breather as prices tumbled back to $250 per barrel, and traders frantically tried to understand for how long the strategic reserve would be made available, and how long it would last at such rates of use.

At 2pm, again, in a joint declaration, the IEA, the USA and the EC confirmed that the strategic reserves would be tapped for as long as it took to convince the Norwegians to change their minds and reverse their decision, and indicated in the strongest terms that such disloyal behavior from a friendly country was incomprehensible and unacceptable and would trigger the most stringent review of bilateral relations. The USA indicated that an aircraft carrier currently running exercises near Iceland was being ordered toward the North Sea in order to be able to assess the situation.

The hint of a military intervention sent prices upwards again, toward $350. As the markets opened in the USA, and many operators there discovered the situation, the frenzy on all markets increased. The Dow Jones opened down 4%, and continued on a downwards slide.

Authorities everywhere alternated between calls to Norway to reconsider its decision, announcements of emergency meetings, and soothing declarations for the public that there were no shortages and that supplies would continue to be provided, including through the use of the strategic reserves. All TV channels had switched their normal programming to non stop coverage of the crisis, with breathless commentary on the potential impact on gas prices, ponderous discussions on the origin of supplies in each country, and coverage of market reactions. All channels scrambled to find experts able to explain in simple words what "peak oil" meant. Most websites specialising in discussion of peak oil had crashed early on, as millions of people were directed to them by Google searches.

In the absence of any hard information, with Oslo seemingly having closed down completely and hunkered down in the face of a massive onslaught of questions, requests for information and ominous declarations to rescind their order, markets slowed down. Prices nudged down slowly to $160 as operators began to believe that Norway would never stand by its decision. Sporadic news from oil producers in the country indicated that they were slowly reducing their production and cancelling cargoes confirmed that production was indeed starting to wind down in the country.

At 5pm, as European markets had closed down after a hectic day, with most stock markets down by 7 or 8%, and oil around 150$/bl, a new communiqué was unexpectedly distributed by the Norwegian authorities:

"Norway has decided to resume oil exports, effective immediately. We have noted with disquiet, but little surprise, the impact of our earlier announcement this morning suspending exports. Stock markets down 8% in one day, oil prices tripling, after having reached a peak at more than $750$/bl, unprecedented diplomatic pressure from our friends in Europe, America and around the world. We would like to point out that such havoc was created solely by the announcement of a 3% reduction in global supplies. This underlines the extraordinary tightness of the oil markets today, and their extreme vulnerability to any kind of supply shock. While our announcement this morning that we would suspend our oil exports was only a test, now ended, designed to make clear to everybody that our current oil consuming patterns are absolutely unsustainable, our declaration with respect to peak oil stands, and is fully confirmed by today's events. We believe that we have entered a time of unprecedented change, with oil no longer plentiful nor cheap. It is our foremost responsibility to plan for this absolutely predictable event and to concentrate the massive wealth of our economies towards developing, on a large scale, sustainable forms of transport, housing and industrial activity. We need to focus on lowering our energy consumption, and switching to renewable sources. The price of doing nothing, as shown today, is steep. We will announce in the coming days a national plan for Norway to reach 100% renewable energy use by 2025. While we apologise to our friends around the world for the unwarranted scare today, we hope that they will remember that next time, there will not be a friendly government to "switch the lights back on", and that they can expect similar oil price hikes to those seen today, with the corresponding economic disruption. We hope that this lesson will be pondered by all. Again, we will resume full exports as of tonight, but can only repeat the need to move away from oil - or to have to face similar crises in the very near future. Call this the Day of the Oslo Warning."

The announcement that the crisis was over sent the markets soaring in the USA, with the Dow instantly regaining the 9% it had lost so far in the day. Oil prices initially dropped back below $100, to $90. But as the "Oslo Warning" started to sink in, oil prices started moving up again, stabilising at around 150$, i.e. exactly the sme price as before the announcement. On the stock market, prices went down a little bit, but this average hid massive differences between stocks suddenly deemed to be able to profit from a new era of expensive energy and those that would be hurt. Car manufacturers suffered most, but again, with a clear selection between those seen as competitive in the production of energy efficient vehicles and others. Coal companies jumped, as did electrical equipement companies like GE or Siemens. Software companies and those providing internet services or infrastructure gained. In just a few hours, a massive reallocation of capital was suddenly under way.

The world would never be the same, and the Norwegians were the unexpected heroes of the day.

Display:
Also posted on dKos for more visibility: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/5/5/112829/6762

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri May 5th, 2006 at 11:38:50 AM EST
Cut off our oil, you French bastard ;)

You realize this means that they're going to inspect you like cattle when you come to the US for Yearly Kos, right?

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Fri May 5th, 2006 at 01:10:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The line between "heroes" and "villains" is thin indeed.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri May 5th, 2006 at 11:52:32 AM EST
Giving the Norwegians ideas, eh?

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Fri May 5th, 2006 at 12:05:42 PM EST
I wouldn't worry too much yet ;-)
But as the "Oslo Warning" started to sink in, oil prices started moving up again, stabilising at around 150$, i.e. exactly the same price as before the announcement.


A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri May 5th, 2006 at 12:08:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, but not quite the same price as before the start of the day...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri May 5th, 2006 at 12:24:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Missed that detail.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri May 5th, 2006 at 12:26:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, this came out of a suggestion I made to Sirocco, who has family or friends with Statoil, in a recent open thread.

It would be a great service to humanity.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri May 5th, 2006 at 12:25:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by rdf (robert.feinman@gmail.com) on Fri May 5th, 2006 at 12:09:07 PM EST
thanks for the link.

it was interesting.

my gut take is that the oil companies' record profits are the sunset effect, as they know their eclipse is inevitable.

they will increasingly be blamed by the ignorant public, who have been kept that way on purpose by the incestuous role of governments, happily taxing fossil fuels while ignoring the very real need to focus on alternatives.

it's a game of chicken, really, as their asses are grass when the shit hits the fan too.

greedy f'ckers.

their only hope is that with no fuel, people will not be able to unite in enough numbers to effectively protest, except in the cities.

junkie mentality... got a hit for today, so can snooze... tomorrow never comes....

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sat May 6th, 2006 at 07:24:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
An oil thriller by Jérôme à Paris, wow!
by Alex in Toulouse on Fri May 5th, 2006 at 12:19:52 PM EST

 That's it!  I'm going into raising horses.

 with four-to-five masted ocean passenger cruisers as a side line.

 ;^)

"In such an environment it is not surprising that the ills of technology should seem curable only through the application of more technology..." John W Aldridge

by proximity1 on Fri May 5th, 2006 at 02:25:45 PM EST
hehehe
And the bicycle industry is going to flourish too. Another thing to consider is chained dwarf tossing for pizza delivery.
by Alex in Toulouse on Fri May 5th, 2006 at 02:31:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
...the man is writing thrillers. And it doesn't read bad at all. Mix this with the bouquette series (this pseudo-reality desperately needs an intrepet banker and a blond, tight-skirted bombshell), and you need to find yourself an agent.
by Nomad on Fri May 5th, 2006 at 02:35:58 PM EST
If you could add a villian, maybe who somehow has found a way to gain possession of the Norweigen oil, perhaps by killing the King?  and then an English Jack Bauer kind of character could come in to save the day.  It's got to have some sex though.  you could get a book and a movie deal out of it.  Of course you also need to add about 300 pages.

This would be good if it happened.  the more people buy into the fact that oil prices will stay high, the more money will go into alternate approaches, and of course people will select more efficient autos, trucks, etc.

by wchurchill on Fri May 5th, 2006 at 02:52:17 PM EST
looks like Nomad and I were on the same wave.
by wchurchill on Fri May 5th, 2006 at 02:54:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nice stuff, Jerome; we linked over from TOD.  

We need to have more of these kinds of thought experiments and counterfactuals.  Of course, that would require thinking, which the MSM doesn't seem all that capable of...perhaps I ask too much.

by profgoose (theoildrum@gmail.com) on Fri May 5th, 2006 at 03:26:58 PM EST
and a bloody good one too

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Fri May 5th, 2006 at 05:45:32 PM EST
too good to waste on a movie

let's send it to le carré and see if he can turn it into a best seller :-)

The difference between theory and practise in practise ...

by DeAnander (de_at_daclarke_dot_org) on Fri May 5th, 2006 at 09:03:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Damn! Great story. Hopefully you are giving the Norwegians ideas. :)

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Fri May 5th, 2006 at 05:47:46 PM EST
Sirocco kindly provided the email of his prime minister, and I have sent him a copy of the story. We'll see how it goes...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri May 5th, 2006 at 05:56:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think you're going to be spending the YearlyKos weekend in detention at LAX ;-)

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat May 6th, 2006 at 03:28:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Why does everybody keep on saying this?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat May 6th, 2006 at 03:57:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Jerome, you too are in denial about the nature of the Bush administration?

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat May 6th, 2006 at 04:03:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
lots of people could be wiped out by that sort of stunt, not to mention people losing their minds and killing each other in gasoline lines.

Not to mention, the Norwegians are just like the Saudis and Alaskans.  They like their steady stream of oil money.

by HiD on Sat May 6th, 2006 at 05:13:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
we got way to much money as it is, why even more???
by kiuyt on Sat May 6th, 2006 at 07:15:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Still smarting from $100 oil not being hit yet? ;)

Somehow I don't think $250/bbl would be hit even if the Norwegians stopped exporting 3 MMBD.  Price may not be very elastic on oil, but quadrupling price would knock demand down more than 3-4 %.

But it makes a nice story to scare the children.

by HiD on Sat May 6th, 2006 at 03:58:40 AM EST
$100 is in our sight, nothign to worry.

But I really think you are wrong about the short term effect of  the brutal disappearance of 3mb/d. I agree that prices would not stay up there, but they would do a lot more than doubling, as we see regularly on electricity markets.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat May 6th, 2006 at 04:29:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm no electricity expert, but I don't think oil is anywhere near as volatile.  It's not like the electricity market has 3 weeks to a month of production stored away in tanks...Any speculator bidding at that level has to know that an announcement that the SPR will be opened and has 200 days of that 3 MMBD tucked away.  

I could see $150 being touched while the crazies in Asia bid with no sellers, but once London and NY wake up, there would be sellers.  Even in the Gulf war (I) some one would sell to you out of their hoarded surplus if you bid hard enough.  And, as always, buy the rumor sell the facts.  Watching that drop from $30-33 to $18 on crude the day of the invasion was gut wrenching.

by HiD on Sat May 6th, 2006 at 05:03:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Barring another platform thrashing this hurricane season (and I admit that's a big if), I suspect you've seen the peak on oil until winter.

April/May is mogas speculation season.  It's not unusual for the gas cracks to hit their peak in this period as the speculators load up with visions of shortfalls leading to panic buying.  It's also not unusual for them to get their asses handed to them when there is no shortage in early June.  I'll be interesting to see how the June contract goes off the board.

My gut tells me this summer's driving season isn't going to be as robust as usual.  While raising fuel costs 50% isn't going to stop us rich folks from going on vacation, it will keep a lot of folks a lot closer to home.  

by HiD on Sat May 6th, 2006 at 05:10:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Fair point. At least we'll know soon (as for the "spring speculation"...) - just in time for me to be "handed my ass" live at YearlyKos...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat May 6th, 2006 at 06:41:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
stupid, extremely unlikely that anything like that will ever happen, and using Norway in the story makes it even worse, WOW!!!!!!!!
by kiuyt on Sat May 6th, 2006 at 07:16:12 AM EST
You do realize that this story makes Norway look good, don't you?
And if you think such a scenario is extremely unlikely, you're right on the very narrow of Norway actually cutting exports, but you're very likely to be proven wrong in the near future as to the consequences of a few mb/d of oil brutally unavailable form the market.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat May 6th, 2006 at 07:41:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Writing "Norwegians were the heroes of the day" doesn't make it so. More like irresponsible pranksters.

Plus such an action could be construed as market manipulation. Lots of people would have lost lots of money in the market shock, not to speak of doubling the baseline price from $75 to $150 a barrel. And the operators of the Norwegian oil platforms would have suffered lossed from having to shut down production for a day.

A lot of angry people would be suing the Norwegian government.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat May 6th, 2006 at 07:48:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And your point is?

This is fiction. This IS market manipulation. That's the fucking point. A dozen countries have this capacity to wreak havoc to the world economy instantaneously. One of them is Norway, a friendly country. Them doing is as a "vaccine shot" instead of for real WOULD be a public service, even if it would piss off a number of people.

As you can see from the comments, most people do not believe that we'll get to $750 oil, or that the price of oil today should be around $150 today to reflect that risk and others. People will believe it only when they see it, thus the usefulness of such a one-day demonstration. But to provide real information, it needs to be done in a totally unexpected and, for its duration, ruthless way.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat May 6th, 2006 at 08:08:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That the story does not make Norway look good, that's my point.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat May 6th, 2006 at 08:12:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How so?

You sound like people that argue that gas taxes are bad because they make the "problem" worse.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat May 6th, 2006 at 08:25:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's the theatrics that make it bad. Just issue the 1pm announcement and get on with it.

It's like shouting 'fire' in a crowded theatre and having a couple of people trampled and then saying "we just did that to demonstrate that the theatre's evacuation routes are not designed properly".

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat May 6th, 2006 at 08:36:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

It's like shouting 'fire' in a crowded theatre and having a couple of people trampled and then saying "we just did that to demonstrate that the theatre's evacuation routes are not designed properly".

Yes... but in a theater built with known flammable materials, when 10 buildings built wit hthe same flammable materials have burnt down in recent times, and for some strange reason you cannot close down the theater...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat May 6th, 2006 at 10:14:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Still won't make you look nice, people will tell you to "wipe that self-satisfied look off your face".

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat May 6th, 2006 at 10:14:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Talk about moving the goal posts... I wrote "heroes". Then we started talking about "looking good". And now it's about "nice"?

It's not nice. But it's a good deed. Vaccine is a good analogy.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat May 6th, 2006 at 10:30:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
there are a few billions of barrels stacked away around the world, the price will not skyrocket!
by kiuyt on Sat May 6th, 2006 at 01:37:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
awesome diary, jerome!

fiction as wake-up call...brilliant.

pity there are no charts though...

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sat May 6th, 2006 at 10:01:40 AM EST
I read this when you first posted it on kos.

Given the normal cultural denial that drives most response to your posts on kos, how has this one gone down ?

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat May 6th, 2006 at 12:45:30 PM EST
The discussion was mostly about alternative energy sources. Very little on the topic itself.

But there's not only denial. There's a good number of readers that share the outlook that oil addiction is a problem. The gas tax did get 60% support in polls, even if it got extremely intense opposotion in the comments.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun May 7th, 2006 at 06:49:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hah, funny story!

We pump up all that oil and salt it away in a monstrous pensions fund. It's stupid, really. I think it's both safer and more profitable to let most of it lie where it is a bit longer. Kinder to the world, too, flattens the plateau a bit (or slows the descent).

But of course, the norwegian government doesn't have a spine. I don't know if SV ever had it in their program to slow down extraction, but their coalition definitively has no such plans. I doubt you could find 100 norwegians today who know that we peaked six years ago.

by Vintermann (vintermann@googlesmailserviceyouknow.com) on Mon May 8th, 2006 at 04:12:42 AM EST
Velkommen til Eurotrib!

The world's northernmost desert wind.
by Sirocco (sirocco2005ATgmail.com) on Mon May 8th, 2006 at 10:20:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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