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So who's not working?

by Jerome a Paris Thu Jun 15th, 2006 at 03:57:46 AM EST

Rising disability rates test policymakers

Soaring numbers of people on disability benefit across the industrialised world are becoming a "major policy concern" that has to be addressed as part of a re­appraisal of job-creation strategies, governments were warned yesterday.

(...)

Some 265m people of working age did not have jobs in the OECD countries, with 37m classified as unemployed.

Another 42m of the total are on long-term sickness and disability benefits, with many others drawing other welfare benefits, including payments for lone parents and early retirement, according to the OECD.

'Real Swedish jobless rate 15%'

Sweden's unemployment rate is 15 per cent, three times the figure being used by the government, according to new research from McKinsey Global Institute, the think tank.

Now I am very suspicious of business consultants churning our studies saying that the jobs market is worse than we think, because I am pretty sure they have some "reform" they want to peddle, but the two articles point out nicely that joblessness is a tricky concept to measure, as are unemployment rates, and that the focus on "old Europe"'s unemployment rate at the exclusion of everything else to point out how bad things are there becomes all the more suspicious.

Why do we "care" so much about the unemployed than about the "disabled"? Is it because one category has a lower standard of living than the other? Is one status less shameful than the other?


proportion of disabled men, per age class, various countries

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Jerome. Why do France and Germany have a much lower disability rate among men than do the UK and Sweeden?

Hey, Grandma Moses started late!
by LEP on Thu Jun 15th, 2006 at 04:12:42 AM EST
Because they did not use disability as a way to push workers out of the jobs market painlessly?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jun 15th, 2006 at 04:15:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I posted this graph a while ago:



In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jun 15th, 2006 at 04:19:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes LEP, the graph above does not mean that there are less people with disabilities in France than in the UK/Sweden, but that in France disabled people are not necessarily as encouraged to "take the pension and go home" as in the UK/Sweden. (that's for the case in which people must choose between getting the pension or being allowed to work).

Actually in France there are different levels of disability pension, some of which are compatible with work (you can then get the pension and still work at the same time).

This graph above overall means that disabled people are more likely to work in France, because the system lets them do just that.

by Alex in Toulouse on Thu Jun 15th, 2006 at 04:31:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
yes, in France, you need to be rated with more than 66% of disability to get a real disable pension, and it is very hard, people are very often rated 65% !!!!

by the way, we created something else : RMI, 700euros of minimum ressource for any person older than 25 yo.

there is always 1 or 2 millions that can not be employed, they just do fit the system.

by fredouil (fredouil@gmailgmailgmail.com) on Thu Jun 15th, 2006 at 04:59:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I this 700€ per month? Taxed?

Not bad, seems like you could almost live on that (outside large cities).

by Number 6 on Thu Jun 15th, 2006 at 05:17:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So a French person who is on disability and also working would be classified as....How?
It seems, as Jerome points out above, some countries use disability as a statistical ruse to reduce the unemployment rate.

Hey, Grandma Moses started late!
by LEP on Thu Jun 15th, 2006 at 05:00:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well that person would be classified as a person with a disability pension of category such and such, and would actually have a good chance of finding a job because of quotas imposed on companies to recruit people with disabilities. Provided that this person lives in an area where opportunities exist (quotas not already filled up, not a too rural area, proper qualificiations etc).

But France may have an encouraging policy towards disability and employment, we're still far behind the UK when it comes to actually making life easier for people with disabilities. The new municipal library in Toulouse, the médiathèque, however, has done a great job for wheelchair access, braille books etc etc. But phone booths, public toilets, and even administration offices etc with proper access are still lagging.
 

by Alex in Toulouse on Thu Jun 15th, 2006 at 05:08:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We need to be clear on "disability". There are countless disabled people who can work and wish to work. In France, there are some incentives for employers to hire such people. They are simply classified as people at work, but the employer gets rebates on social contributions for them.

On the other hand, there's "incapacity", which means the person is medically considered unfit to work (until such time as the medical appraisal changes). Now that can be a "sink" for long-term unemployed persons the government would like to shunt off the unemployment stats. France doesn't do this; the UK has done a huge amount of it. (see these comments from the other day.)

ET has been in the forefront (long before McKinsey or the latest OECD report) in pointing out the importance of incapacity numbers in masking unemployment for propaganda purposes. Here is a diary I wrote about it last October.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Jun 15th, 2006 at 05:44:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks afew. I just read your October diary. It explains a lot.

Hey, Grandma Moses started late!
by LEP on Thu Jun 15th, 2006 at 06:14:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm all in favour of this sort of analysis of unemployment rates ... I'm doing a story on it at the moment.

As to why unemployment is such an important figure: it speaks to the economic security of the main mass of people. Most people don't believe they will ever be disabled. It's all too easy for them to imagine being unemployed.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Jun 15th, 2006 at 04:30:41 AM EST
it's like people believing they will never have a car accident but being terrified of flying?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jun 15th, 2006 at 04:33:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually no...  People are afraid of unemployment because it happens all the time and not of disability which is fortunately scarcer.  With the plane thing it's the other way around (being scared of something that never happens).  There is nothing phobic or irrational about the fear of unemployment.
by Guillaume on Thu Jun 15th, 2006 at 05:02:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Except that in the OECD, you have 37 million unemployed and 42 million disabled, so it's not obviously true that one is much rarer than the other, even if you acknowledge that there is more "rotation" of the unemployed than of the disabled...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jun 15th, 2006 at 05:05:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Les stocks et les flux ?  You can be unemployed any number of times but are unlikely to be really disabled more than once (unless you're Djibril Cissé that is...).  Also, I'm willing to bet (though not look for figures, heaven forbid!) that a lot of the disabled went through a long bout of unemployment especially when the disability is due to a psychological condition.
My point is that the average Joe is being rational in fearing unemployment, which he will likely face at some point, which people around him are facing, as being more likely than being crippled physically or mentally.
by Guillaume on Thu Jun 15th, 2006 at 05:26:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
As I comment above, we need to be clear about "disabled". A person in a wheelchair may be very capable of working, wish to work, find work. Same for other types of disability. These people suffer from some degree of permanent disability but are not necessarily classified as unfit for work.

What may operate as camouflage for long-term unemployment in the statistics is a medical decision the person is unfit for work. (For psychological reasons, for example, or chronic backache, etc). This may not be a lifelong decision, and will probably be subject to regular re-appraisal. But it takes an unemployed person off the unemployment statistics and on to another set that is not given public prominence...

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Jun 15th, 2006 at 06:00:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Are you doing a story on the comparitive real "non-employment" numbers: unemployed + disabled + those that stopped looking? (I'm not mentioning the under employed.) That would be very enlightening.

Hey, Grandma Moses started late!
by LEP on Thu Jun 15th, 2006 at 05:36:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, I'm doing another one...
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Jun 15th, 2006 at 06:01:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
From the FT story:
But McKinsey said that Sweden had a lot of lost ground to regain. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Sweden had dropped from fifth position in its welfare ranking to 112th in 2004.

Complete rubbish. I'm not sure if it's a mistype of 12th or just idiocy.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Jun 15th, 2006 at 04:41:24 AM EST
Private sector job growth, 1996-2002:



In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jun 15th, 2006 at 05:00:27 AM EST
After a quick look at the second article I think you are right that a prescription is forthcoming:
  • ... if no corrective action is taken ...

  • ... deregulation and improvements in private sector productivity ...

  • ... ageing population ...

  • ... move quickly to introduce reforms ...

This said, in Sweden we have seen some rather interesting ways of hiding unemployment. One of my "favourites" was some New Age course on power crystals and pendulums. (I think I had moved abroad by then, so not my tax money, but still.) I suppose it beats flipping burgers but only just.

by Number 6 on Thu Jun 15th, 2006 at 05:54:22 AM EST
According to the BLS, only 123,000 Americans, less than 0.05% of the work force of 228M, are not in the labour force  because of illness or disability???? That has to be wrong.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Jun 15th, 2006 at 06:51:38 AM EST
But according to census figure there are 33M of working age with a disability and only 60% are employed, indicating there are 13.2 disabled and unemployed. There are 11.9M with an "unemployment disability".

The discrepancy must be people who said they didn't want a job because they were disabled.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Jun 15th, 2006 at 06:58:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Only 123,000??? That most certainly is wrong...or a lie....

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Thu Jun 15th, 2006 at 07:13:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There's a general elction coming up this september in Sweden and I suppose this "study" is FT's gift to the right-wing parties in Sweden in preparation for that.

Now we'll surely get to here this FT article about Sweden's real unemployment rate being bandied about at every interview with any of the RW party leaders.

Thanks for the advance tip-off.

by high5 (high5104@gmail.com) on Thu Jun 15th, 2006 at 12:21:01 PM EST
So, every time a Swedish media outlet menitions this and compares Sweden's "real" unemployment with some other country's "official" unemployment, Colman's analysis should be repeated for the country in question and used for LTEs...

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jun 15th, 2006 at 12:24:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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