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A brief history of Kosovo. Part II: 1989-1999

by Sirocco Wed Jun 28th, 2006 at 06:38:53 PM EST

At last.

It is advisable, but perhaps not necessary, to start with the beginning:

A brief history of Kosovo. Part I: 1189-1989.

1989 On St. Vitus Day, June 28 1989 — the 600th anniversary of the mythologized battle — Slobodan Milošević returned to Kosovo Polje as president-elect of the Serbian Republic. Also back for the occasion was Prince Lazar, whose holy remains had toured the Orthodox monasteries of Yugoslavia for two years, rousing Serbian nationalism. As many as a million pilgrims convened at the plains, waving "Slobo's" picture alongside that of his illustrious predecessor.

However, Milošević's actual address on that day has been misrepresented on a scale almost comparable to the events which it commemorated. Though it did, ominously enough, suggest that armed struggle "should not be excluded yet," it was hardly a "stirringly virulent nationalist speech" (The Economist, June 05, 1999, US edition) that "whipped a million Serbs into a nationalist frenzy" (Time International, July 9, 2001). On the contrary, it touted the peaceful coexistence of ethnic groups within common borders. Why the shift in rhetoric?

This declaration provides a clue: "Serbia of today is united and equal to other republics." Milošević, in other words, had already achieved one of his key objectives and was seeking to consolidate his position at the helm of an undivided Yugoslavia.

There are rival accounts of how this came to be. The following is that of the the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia:

9. [...] In early 1989, the Serbian Assembly proposed amendments to the Constitution of Serbia which would strip Kosovo of most of its autonomous powers, including control of the police, educational and economic policy, and choice of official language, as well as its veto powers over further changes to the Constitution of Serbia. Kosovo Albanians demonstrated in large numbers against the proposed changes. Beginning in February 1989, a strike by Kosovo Albanian miners further increased tensions.

10. Due to the political unrest, on 3 March 1989, the SFRY Presidency declared that the situation in the province had deteriorated and had become a threat to the constitution, integrity, and sovereignty of the country. The government then imposed "special measures" which assigned responsibility for public security to the federal government instead of the government of Serbia.

11. On 23 March 1989, the Assembly of Kosovo met in Pristina and, with the majority of Kosovo Albanian delegates abstaining, voted to accept the proposed amendments to the constitution. Although lacking the required two-thirds majority in the Assembly, the President of the Assembly nonetheless declared that the amendments had passed. On 28 March 1989, the Assembly of Serbia voted to approve the constitutional changes effectively revoking the autonomy granted in the 1974 constitution.

This version of what happened on March 23 1989 was, it must be emphasized, vigorously disputed by witnesses for Milošević at The Hague. What is clear is that Kosovo's autonomy was downgraded to pre-1974 levels at Milošević' behest. The Serbian Parliament followed up by passing a number of discriminatory laws, including one that barred Albanians from selling real estate without permission from Serbian authorities.

In July 1990 a majority of Albanian delegates in the Assembly of Kosovo responded by unofficially declaring Kosovo an "equal and independent" republic of SFRY, complete with a shadow government. Greg Campbell, in his book The Road to Kosovo, sums up what happened next:

In response, Milosevic suspended Kosovo's parliament and its government, fired Albanians holding influential political posts and purged them from the police force, shut down Albanian-language media, closed all Albanian educational institutions, and banned Albanians from being treated in state-run medical establishments.... [This] had its desired effect: large numbers of Albanians fled Kosovo. The Serb-dominated police force fueled the migration through brutality, violence, and torture aimed at the Albanian majority. But the Serbian crackdown didn't quell the [Albanians'] desires for autonomy; it simply upped their demands: now, instead of wanting just intra-Yugoslavian freedom, they were demanding full independence as a new nation. (152-3).

By September 1990, a US National Intelligence Estimate warned that "the Yugoslav experiment has failed, that the country will break up" and that "this is likely to be accomplished by ethnic violence and unrest which could lead to civil war." Yet like most close observers, it predicted that the first region engulfed by war would be Kosovo itself. Instead the Kosovo conflict set off a chain reaction through Slovenia, Croatia, and Bosnia that not before 1998 completed the circle and blew up the detonator.

The Serbian crackdown in Kosovo induced Slovenians to vote overwhelmingly for independence in a December 1990 plebiscite. As this left Serbia too dominant for their liking, it moved Croatia, Bosnia, and Macedonia to secede as well. The ensuing war in Bosnia left at least 100,000 dead and created 3 million refugees. The international community could do little to halt the carnage, and did even less.

How did the powder keg of Kosovo avoid war in the early 1990s? One factor is that, despite voting overwhelmingly for independence in an unofficial referendum of September 1991, Albanians lacked the military and political muscle to force secession, while Belgrade was kept in check by the outside world, notably the US. According to a former US ambassador to Croatia, the Bush sr. administration was more concerned about potential war in Kosovo and its destabilizing effects than about Bosnia. In its "Christmas Threat" of late 1992 — since reiterated by President Clinton — it threatened military action if Milošević were to deploy in Kosovo.

Another factor is the pacifism of the late Ibrahim Rugova; a silk-scarfed, Sorbonne-educated academic who in May 1992 was voted President of the "Republic of Kosova" in clandestine elections. Rugova and his party, the Democratic League of Kosova (DLK), favored passive resistance, establishing an underground state of diaspora-financed parallel institutions to which Serbian police saw fit to turn a blind eye. The strategy of the DLK was quietly to await Western support for independence. However, the US and the EU were by now preoccupied with Bosnia. Thus, when the 1995 Dayton Accords recognized Serbia and Montenegro as the new Yugoslavia and the sanctions were lifted, this was not made conditional even upon restored autonomy for the troubled province.

While understandable given the urgency of ending the Bosnian bloodbath, the neglect of the Kosovo question left ethnic Albanians — now on their own with the Serbs and Montenegrins — worse off than in the old SFRY. In result, many DLK adherents gave up on the non-violent approach and switched to the Kosova Liberation Army (KLA): a clan-based rag-tag militia which by 1993 had evolved from emigré separatist groups in Western Europe, comprising refugees from the 1980 crackdown. Faithful to the 19th century nationalist ideal of a polity coextensive with the ethnicity, it revived the old pipedream of uniting the ethnic Albanians of Kosovo, Montenegro, Macedonia, and Albania itself in a Greater Albania. This grandiose irredentist project, harking back to the League of Prizren of 1878, was the long-term ambition. The KLA's immediate end was independence.

As to the means it was prepared to use, indisputably part of its funding derived from organized crime, possibly including participation in the infamous Balkan Route of heroin to Western Europe. There have also been reports of ties with jihadi groups. Most likely, both accusations contain elements of truth — the former perhaps more than the latter — but have been exaggerated in pro-Serb propaganda. The KLA was not the armed wing of Albanian organized crime, nor did its agenda and leadership have much to do with political Islam.

KLA fighters.

In early 1996 the KLA launched a low-intensity insurgency, ambushing security forces and assailing "collaborators." Its existence was long only rumored, but by early 1997 it began to claim responsibility. Stocking up on cheap Kalashnikovs from the looted armories of Albania, then in a state of anarchy after the collapse of nation-wide pyramid financing schemes, the KLA escalated operations throughout the year. On the night to September 11 it performed a series of ten coordinated attacks as much as 150 km apart. On November 28 — a date commemorated as a national day among Kosovo Albanians — a KLA member appeared in public as such for the very first time.

At this point the guerrilla began to target civilian Serbs. The master strategy was a kind of martial judo familiar from terrorist campaigns: turning the enemy's strength against him. Pinprick operations aimed to provoke disproportionate reprisals which would rally Kosovo Albanians around its cause and, with any luck, elicit Western intervention. Perhaps aware of this risk in the light of Clinton's threats, and having experience with provocation tactics himself, Milošević shied away from deploying the army.

He eventually changed his mind. On some accounts, this happened when on February 23 1998, US special envoy Robert Gelbard imprudently, if not inaccurately, called the KLA "without any question a terrorist group" which the US condemned "very strongly." Within a week, Serbian special forces backed by helicopter gunships and armoured personnel carriers performed a brutal crackdown in the western Drenica region, flattening entire towns that served as strongholds for leading KLA (and mafia) clans. To go by Kosovo Albanian sources, this involved summary executions, even outright massacres. Albanian media reported a hundred thousand attending the funerals.

The sweep continued into March, notably at the village of Prekaz in central Kosovo, where fifty-three members of the Jeshari clan allegedly were slaughtered. The KLA made the most of this, posting photos of the corpses on the Internet as soon as available. A massive uprising followed, swelling the ranks of the KLA. Meanwhile, up to 400,000 Kosovo Albanians were forced to flee their homes, some at gunpoint and many over the mountains to Albania.

This humanitarian disaster led to the UN Security Council to impose economic sanctions and an arms embargo on Yugoslavia, threatening "additional measures" if it failed to withdraw. To underline the point, 85 NATO aircraft overflew Albania and Macedonia; the US Sixth Fleet, put on battle alert, cruised into the Adriatic in a show of force. Finally, in late September the Clinton administration opened the door for air strikes; in October, NATO authorized such in the case of non-compliance with "the repeated political and humanitarian demands of the UN Security Council in regards to Kosovo."

Belgrade had no choice but to fold. In the so-called Holbrooke-Milošević agreement of October 12, it agreed to restore Kosovo's autonomy and pull out the army and police in return for a lifting of the UN sanctions. A multinational corps of 750 civilian monitors, under the auspices of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), moved in to supervise the implementation.

By all accounts, the some 130 strong US contribution to this Kosovo Verification Mission (KVM) was heavily spy-infested. (There are unverified allegations that the KVM head, US diplomat William Walker — an old Latin America hand with stints in El Salvador and Honduras — was himself CIA.) According to the Sunday Times, the Americans operated on "completely different terms" than the Europeans, providing advice and combat manuals to the KLA.

The latter for its part was neither party to nor content with the ceasefire. It surged forth into the power vacuum, seizing half the province and extending a makeshift administrative structure as it went along. As reported in the BBC2 documentary Moral Combat, Walker confidentially told NATO's governing body that the guerrilla was now "the main initiator of the violence," apparently engaging in "a deliberate campaign of provocation."

On January 15 1999, another massacre occurred in the town of Racak, a KLA stronghold in southern Kosovo, where some 45 Albanians were murdered in cold blood after attacks on Serbian police. Or so, at any rate, William Walker assured a press conference, describing in gory detail the aftermath of an "unspeakable atrocity" and a "crime against humanity." The charge would be central to the case against Milošević in The Hague, where Walker testified for the prosecution about the heaps of dead bodies he had seen on that day.

Bodies at Racak — combatants or civilians?

Yet doubts immediately arose about this incident. There are indications that it was a hoax staged by the KLA to trigger NATO intervention. Frustratingly, there are also persuasive counter-arguments. In a sense it hardly even matters, inasmuch as neither side was morally above what it stood accused of by the other side. What is clear is that, if it was indeed a KLA hoax, it succeeded.

News of the Racak incident broke within hours of a National Security Council meeting in which US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, who had for nearly a year favored putting military pressure on Milošević, argued in vain for "decisive steps." Albright later called Racak "a galvanizing incident," meaning that it galvanized will to contemplate the use of force.

She was right, both in terms of the Clinton administration and international opinion. For the German Foreign Minister Joschka Fisher, for instance, "Racak became the turning point": "If people are being massacred, you cannot mutter about having no [UN Security Council] mandate. You must act." Within two weeks, NATO announced its readiness to intervene, France and Britain vowed to send in ground troops if needed, and UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan stateed that Bosnia had proven "the need to use force, when all other means have failed."

Finally, the so-called Contact Group of Britain, Germany, France, Italy, Russia and the US summoned the parties, on pains of NATO airstrikes, to the Château de Rambouillet outside Paris. Talks began on February 6 amidst intermittent clashes, torched villages, and a Serbian presence some six times heavier than allowed by the ceasefire. What transpired at Rambouillet has been, it is fair to say, misrepresented widely in US and European media to this day.

It was announced that, merely by taking part, the parties implicitly accepted 26 principles which the British Foreign Secretary Robin Cook had stated on January 30. These non-negotiable principles were culled from the January 27 version of an 'Interim Agreement' drafted by the US envoy, Holbrooke's deputy Christopher Hill.

This framework mandated an immediate truce and disarmament followed by restored self-government for Kosovo within the FRY. Upon free elections supervised by the OSCE, the province would enjoy its own parliament, president, judicial system and police; the cultural rights of all ethnic groups would be respected; all political prisoners would be released; and a final settlement would be reached after three years. A new version of the agreement, presented to the parties upon arrival, specified that the latter would occur through a "mechanism" determined by an "international meeting" on the basis of "the will of the people" and various "opinions" and "efforts." Albright gave the parties one week to endorse this fait accompli and hash out the details, otherwise "appropriate conclusions" would be drawn. In case of Yugoslav refusal, that meant air strikes; in case of Albanian ditto, abandonment to the Serbs.

According to French journalist Paul-Marie De La Gorce writing in Le Monde Diplomatique, the Yugoslavian delegation accepted the proposal. However, the KLA did not: preferring status quo to "mere" autonomy, it demanded a clause guaranteeing eventual independence. This situation — Serbian acceptance cum Albanian refusal — was the opposite of what the US State Department had expected. Albright arrived on February 20 to persuade the KLA's delegation leader, Hasim Thaci, to sign.

In a letter to Thaci dated 22nd February, she provided an interpretation of the aforementioned "mechanism":

This letter concerns the formulation (attached) proposed for Chapter 8, Article 1 (3) of the interim Framework Agreement. We will regard this proposal, or any other formulation, of that Article that may be agreed at Rambouillet, as confirming a right for the people of Kosovo to hold a referendum on the final status of Kosovo after three years.

Quoted in Tim Judah: Kosovo, p. 215.

The next day, negotiations were adjourned, the KLA delegation heading off to Macedonia to consult with its leaders; the US sent down Senator Bob Dole to continue the lobbying. In addition to Albright's concession, three novel elements were now introduced to further sugar the pill: elections would be held ASAP; the disarmament would not extend to "private weapons"; and last but not least, NATO forces would ensure Yugoslavian compliance.

On March 15, talks resumed in Paris and the KLA announced its readiness to sign the deal unilaterally.

And unilateral the signing would be, for the deal had evolved into something completely unacceptable to Belgrade. It is unclear whether Milošević knew of Albright's letter; if so, that alone explains his refusal to sign. Having arguably lost three wars in the former Yugoslavia, he could ill afford to lose Kosovo, which he had personally touted as the Serb nation's ancestral home and the embodiment of its historical martyrdom. Neither his government nor the equally nationalist opposition, nor indeed the disaffected Serbian populace, would condone secession.

The other novelties were also inedible to Belgrade. The revised 'Interrim Agreement for Peace and Self-Government in Kosovo' required Serbian security forces to withdraw to at least 5 km from the border. A NATO force with no upward cap or oversight by the the UN Security Council would move in and assume full control, including over the airspace. As if this were not enough, Appendix B on the 'Status of Multi-National Military Implementation Force' effectively authorizes NATO occupation of the entire Former Republic of Yugoslavia:

NATO personnel shall be immune from any form of arrest, investigation, or detention by the authorities in the FRY... [and] enjoy, together with their vehicles, vessels, aircraft, and equipment, free and unrestricted passage and unimpeded access throughout the FRY including associated airspace and territorial waters. This shall include, but not be limited to, the right of bivouac, maneuver, billet, and utilization of any areas or facilities as required for support, training, and operations.... The authorities in the FRY shall facilitate, on a priority basis and with all appropriate means, all movement of personnel, vehicles, vessels, aircraft, equipment, or supplies, through or in the airspace, ports, airports, or roads used.

There is an under-appreciated irony in the Czech-born Albright informing reporters that "Munich is my mindset" while trying to coerce a sovereign state into accepting loss of territory on terms such as these. The pro-Serbian side of the continuing debate (or shouting match) argues that said terms both explain and justify Milošević's rejection of the Rambouillet Accord. Pro-NATO pundits counter that they were lifted from the Dayton Accords, wherein Croatia agreed to the equivalent, and that they were anyway negotiable had the Serbs engaged in negotiation, which they did not.

The latter claim is flatly denied by De La Gorce. According to him, Belgrade's prime representative at Rambouillet — the President of Serbia, Milan Milutinović — suggested an "international presence" in Kosovo independent of NATO and comprising forces from Russia, Greece, and Western Europe.

Some commentators go as far as to suggest that the US deliberately provoked Belgrade's rejection to clear the way for war. A more plausible analysis is that it gambled and lost. Faced with the likelihood that no possible agreement would be acceptable to both the parties, its strategy was to secure a KLA signature with all necessary concessions and then make Milošević an offer he could not refuse. Such inequitable use of stick and carrot proved a grave miscalculation on March 18, as the KLA delegates signed while their Yugoslav counterparts refused.

Later that day, Clinton declared that "the treshold had been crossed" in regard to triggering NATO intervention. On the following day, "winter live fire exercises" commenced in Kosovo, prompting evacuation of KVM personnel; again according to the Sunday Times, CIA elements handed over advanced communications equipment to the KLA before leaving.

A major diplomatic crisis ensued. Russia had informally condoned the threat against Yugoslavia but stressed that it could never tolerate its actual implementation. China, preoccupied with sovereignty, was also opposed. Thus, though it cited several UN Security Council resolutions, the first war in NATO's history lacked an explicit UNSC authorization. Within NATO, Greece and Italy objected.

But the resistance was brushed aside, in part, no doubt, owing to another miscalculation: the US and NATO believed that a brief, token bombing campaign would compel Milošević to sign. This belief also helps account for Clinton's cavalier vow, in his March 24 address to the nation, that no ground troops would be deployed.

Moreover, the strategic error sheds light on the absence of planning characterizing Operation Allied Force from its beginning later on that day. A recent PhD dissertation by Captain Dag Henriksen at the Norwegian Air Force Academy documents that the NATO targeting cell at the air operations center CAOC Vicenza was asked to find arbitrary targets for a campaign of 2-3 days with no guidance as to strategic objectives. The personnel found the situation so amateurish that they assumed a political deal had already been struck with Milošević. When by a week later nothing had changed, the targeters decided to improvise a strategy of their own.

Based upon interviews with most central actors of Allied Force including the SACEUR, General Wesley Clark, Henriksen also brings out another, and quite remarkable, reason for the neglect of NATO strategy: unbeknown to its allies, the US unilaterally ran a bombing campaign of its own, hitting targets without NATO control. Consequently these targets were sometimes hit twice. European chiefs of staff reacted with fury to discovering this.

To the extent that key allies were kept out of the dark, it happened in a "Black Committee" comprising the US, the UK, and France. The democratic institutions of NATO were creatively bypassed to evade political control with the escalation of target categories as the campaign stagnated.

As other analysts have shown, there was conflict even between Clark and his principal US subordinate, Lt Gen Michael Short of the US Air Force. Clark ordered Short to target air defenses and military units in Kosovo while the latter wanted, as he put it, to "strike at the head of the snake" — Belgrade. Despite threatening to resign, he got permission for shock and awe tactics only by the end of May, by which time sorties had multiplied from 400 to 900 a day and there was still no resolution in sight, much to Washington's despair. The target list was expanded to include infrastructure like bridges (more than half of those over the Danube were hit); oil refineries and power plants (causing nation-wide power blackouts); government facilities; factories owned by allies of Milošević; the state broadcasting service RTS (at the cost of 16-17 civilian lives); and infamously, the Chinese embassy.

Bombed bridge at Novi-Sad

Meanwhile, things had been taking a dramatic turn on the ground. True to form, and far from any idea of surrender, the cynical Milošević had taken the opportunity to launch the most extensive campaign of forced deportation since World War II, resulting in hundreds of thousands fleeing to Macedonia and Albania within the end of March. This ethnic cleansing was precisely the kind of atrocity the air strikes were supposed to prevent: a true humanitarian disaster on an epic scale. Adding insult to injury, Belgrade was able to argue that the refugees were running from NATO bombs.

Nor did the air strikes weaken Milošević's popular standing, as naďvely anticipated. On the contrary, the Serbs rallied around him against the superior foreign enemy in what the propanganda could paint as a 20th century Kosovo Battle. To punctuate the symbolism, units of the Yugoslav army exercized on the myth-imbued plains as they trained to confront the NATO ground invasion that could not be excluded — especially not after British PM Tony Blair began to publically advocate it in April. Washington shut him up, but the option was now on the table and increasingly pushed by others, including Clark.

What ultimately swayed Milošević was probably less the strategic bombing than this prospect of ground troops, combined with the unwelcome news that Russia would stay passive in such a scenario.

By the end of April, NATO woke up to the necessity of dealing with Russia, so far humiliated and left to impotent rage as a fellow orthodox nation was attacked (Russian PM Yevgeny Primakov turned his Washington-bound plane around in mid-flight at the war's beginning). By May, Russia and Germany had opened a secret back channel wherein a Swedish financier, Peter Castenfelt, was smuggled into Belgrade. He communicated to Milošević that not only President Yeltsin but the Russian security establishment would hang him out to dry if he failed to exit. This had the virtue of being true: Yeltsin, moved by the urgency of ending a war that sent his approval ratings nose-diving, had somehow bought off the military, which otherwise might have rebelled. All this according to the aforementioned BBC2 documentary, Moral Combat.

On May 31, Belgrade announced its consent to the Rambouillet Accord. The Serbian Parliament gave it the nod three days later, Milošević reportedly voting in favor. A withdrawal agreement was finalized on May 9, followed on May 10 by pullout; ratification of the Accord by the UNSC; preparations for the ongoing KFOR peacekeeping mission; and suspension of Operation Allied Force 11 weeks after it began.

NATO had launched a total of 38,004 combat sorties, of which 10,484 were strikes against targets in the FRY (Serbia, Kosovo, and Montenegro), and 18,439 were aerial tanker and airlift sorties. The Alliance's first war properly so-called was also the first in history without a single combat fatality for the victor. As to civilians, Human Rights Watch confirms that at least 500 Yugoslav such were killed in 90 separate incidents over 78 days of bombing, a number considerably smaller than Yugoslav public estimates of up to 5,000 civilian casualties.

On the other hand, the 2000 report noted that:

U.S. officials, including Secretary of Defense William Cohen, Deputy Secretary of Defense John Hamre, and Gen. Wesley Clark, have testified before Congress and stated publicly that there were only twenty to thirty incidents of "collateral damage" in the entire war. The number of incidents Human Rights Watch has been able to authenticate is three to four times this number. The seemingly cavalier U.S. statements regarding the civilian toll suggest a resistance to acknowledging the actual civilian effects and an indifference to evaluating their causes.

The report also found that NATO on several occasions broke international humanitarian law, and criticized the use of cluster bombs in civilian areas. Another controversial issue has been the use of DU-tipped munitions, whose detrimental health effects, according to some authorities, are seen in the cancer statistics today.

But what of the campaign's overarching strategic goals for Kosovo — were these achieved? That is hard to say, not least because these were so ill-defined in the first place. Asked by Captain Dag Henriksen to which extent the operational planning focused on what Kosovo would look like when the strongest military alliance in history had prevailed, then deputy SACEUR General Rupert Smith replied: "Oh, it wasn't in focus at all."

Such myopia, especially on the political level, had consequences. Upon the end of hostilities in June, Kosovo Albanian refugees started to return; but at the same time, Serbs fled or were chased out by Albanians in equally large numbers. By July 20, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees estimated that 150,000 Serbs were flooding into Serbia, which already harbored half a million refugees from the other ex-Yugoslavian wars. The total number of refugees from Kosovo rose to some 230,000, most of them Serbs. Of these, over 200,000 remain Internally Displaced Persons in what is Europe's biggest refugee problem. A hundred thousand Serbs stayed put among approximately 1.8 million ethnic Albanians, among whom little love was lost on Serbs.

This minority now dwell in KFOR-guarded enclaves, with limited freedom of movement and high unemployment even by the standards of a dysfunctional UN protectorate where only the black economy flowers. The Serbian apartheid state has effectively been inverted. More than 4,000 Serbs worked at the public electricity service in 1999; today around 30 do so, out of 8,000 employees. Meanwhile, barbed wire and armed KFOR troops protect those medieval monasteries that remain recognizably intact.

Independence is, however, finally in the offing, mostly because the Western powers acknowledge once again that the majority would never settle for less. Serbia, impoverished and demoralized, is unable to do more than strut and fret at the impending loss of its "historical heartland."

For now. Anyone doubting that ancient history lives in the Balkans should bear in mind quite a recent incident. On May 24, 1999, Slobodan Milosevic had become the first sitting head of state to be charged with war crimes in the midst of a war, the charges including murder and deportation in Kosovo. A little more than two years later, he was himself deported to the cell at the Hague that would be his final home.

The date chosen for his extradition just happened to be St. Vitus Day, June 28.

Shit, Giles.
Looks excellent.  I'm at the tail end of an office farewell-party here in NY and in no condition to seriously comment on this post.  Back in the morning.
by ask on Wed Jun 28th, 2006 at 08:35:48 PM EST
by Sirocco (sirocco2005ATgmail.com) on Thu Jun 29th, 2006 at 08:37:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Why don't you make it a diary before frontpaging it so we can recommend it?

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jun 28th, 2006 at 08:47:33 PM EST
Must be my usual modesty...

The world's northernmost desert wind.
by Sirocco (sirocco2005ATgmail.com) on Thu Jun 29th, 2006 at 08:40:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Highly interesting.

NATO ought to let any asshole run around in it's back yard, imitatio Adolph.

Only operation since WWII I agreed with.

Sorry about that.

Guess I'm a freakin' war monger.

"When the abyss stares at me, it wets its pants." Brian Hopkins

by EricC on Wed Jun 28th, 2006 at 10:43:02 PM EST
Always enjoyable and informative, Sirocco.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Jun 28th, 2006 at 11:20:16 PM EST
by Sirocco (sirocco2005ATgmail.com) on Thu Jun 29th, 2006 at 08:43:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I want to thank you for your effort Sirocco. It really is a huge effort to try to explain this situation fairly...if that's possible at all.
For those of you here who never have known Serbs or who had no chance to personally get to their basics I can only say that we could be very passionate and grateful friends to others but as we have no "forgive and forget" button we are also very passionate enemies. As I explained before, for generations we are passing emotions that were triggered long long time ago. That's why we never see the end of our animosities with others and we have a say to our enemies that goes something like:" We'll have another battle waiting in front of us yet" And we are patient. We waited 500 years to see Ottomans go home. And despite all the terror we are still there...Very stubborn people that will suffer, and cheat and practically do anything for what they believe in. And we believe Kosovo is ours. We can differentiate about the way we need to go to achieve the goal but we all, up and down to the last one, believe that Kosovo is ours and that Albanians being reality, can only be our guests there...guests in our house.
Well, at this point it does not look things are going in our favor but hey, we have a centuries in front of us. We'll wait and see what will come out of these latest western experiments. We made a house "in the middle of the road" and even if Europe wants it, it just can't ignore us...it's not in their economic and strategic interest. We'll be a part of bloody EU sooner or later even if there will never be "love" between us after NATO bombardment. But hey we also have our interests...
In the main time reality is that Kosovo and Albanians there,  are actually your problems now, my brothers from EU and USA and NATO...Good luck with them!

Science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind...Albert Einstein
by vbo on Thu Jun 29th, 2006 at 01:35:53 AM EST
And we believe Kosovo is ours. We can differentiate about the way we need to go to achieve the goal but we all, up and down to the last one, believe that Kosovo is ours and that Albanians being reality, can only be our guests there...guests in our house.

Sounds like the Likud position on 'Judea and Samaria' (i.e. the West Bank). I guess it's no coincidence that the Israeli right tended to dislike the intervention in Kosovo.

I remember that back in the nineties many Poles I knew liked to say that in a way the Soviet Union's annexation and ethnic cleansing of what had been Eastern Poland had been a favour. If they hadn't, we might well have gone down the Serbian path. Same martyrdom complex, long history of oppression by an empire which shared a religion (Orthodoxy) with the local majority there, ugly civil war within WWII with some of the Ukranian groups collaborating with the Nazis... an alternate history experiment - the Galician war and the NATO bombardment of Poland.

by MarekNYC on Thu Jun 29th, 2006 at 02:29:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Not knowing almost anything but contours of Poland history I would say it's hardly comparable.
As for Israelis and West bank I can hardly see similarities too.
I would like to be able to say that world as such has grown out from national issues and that cosmopolitism and not national view is a future but I don't see it. What I see is that rich of the world has found a way to make a "brotherhood" trough globalization in order to make huge profit but when ever they need it on a local level (in order to stay in control of power) they just take out "nationalism card" and here we go again...I would like to "Imagine" world "as one" but I have a TV and I watch news every bloody night...I used to be a dreamer but I am an old woman today...But for all of you who can still dream I am happy.
What's your vision of Kosovo, Marek? What would be right in your eyes?

Science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind...Albert Einstein
by vbo on Thu Jun 29th, 2006 at 04:41:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks. I have tried to navigate this minefield without falling prey to too many myths and lies from either side, but as you say, it's hard.

The mentality you describe is why I suspect it's a bit  shortsighted of the EU/US to ignore the Serbian interest in retaining at least part of Kosovo. Even though it's my understanding that young people in Serbia today are less preoccupied with Kosovo than the oldies, these things wax and wane.

There may be no adequate solution. But one possibility that noone in the West wants to consider is partition, whereby the north and west with Serbian majorities and most of the monasteries remain in Serbia and the rest of Kosovo either goes indepedent or joins Albania, as decided by referendum.

Noone will love this solution, but in the long run it may be far more stabilizing than full secession of the entire province, which satisfies the Kosovo Albanians now but provides enduring grist for the mill of Serbian revengism.

The world's northernmost desert wind.

by Sirocco (sirocco2005ATgmail.com) on Thu Jun 29th, 2006 at 09:23:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Even though it's my understanding that young people in Serbia today are less preoccupied with Kosovo than the oldies, these things wax and wane.
I wouldn't bet on that. They temporarily lost their interest because it's obvious nothing can be done at the moment. Milosevic was stupid enough to bet on a losing card but generally Serbs are not. That's why people were so divided about him and his approach. I'll tell you, most of the young Serbs never have visited Kosovo and wouldn't care to live there but will be ready to die for it. It's very hard to explain...strange sort of people we are...they'll wait for right moment. They are used to waiting during history...How do you think they managed to make Yugoslavia (to the hell with it!)? Unfortunately the price they paid was always too high and paid by blood.

But one possibility that no one in the West wants to consider is partition,
At one point I used to believe that would be solution...I don't really know...but as you said it's not on the table at this point.
Serbs are at hard place generally nowadays everywhere but things tend to change drastically during history... empires come and go...people are still there. Neither Serbs or Albanians or Croats or others will go anywhere...This is not a first time for us to have drastically changed borders...Most of the people there has been born in one state and died in another...There is no such a thing as last battle on Balkan...

Science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind...Albert Einstein

by vbo on Thu Jun 29th, 2006 at 11:03:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I am reminded of a compatriot who, in conversation with Serbs, mentioned the areas of Jemtland and Herjedalen which Norway lost to Sweden in 1645, after the Danish king then ruling Norway had lost a war (as Danes always do).

"And what are you planning to do about that?" asked the Serbs.

The world's northernmost desert wind.

by Sirocco (sirocco2005ATgmail.com) on Thu Jun 29th, 2006 at 03:25:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hahaha...that's exactly kind of mind frame I am talking about. We never forget...all though we also do not forget good things that others have done for us during history and we are ready to endure a lot of bad when it comes from someone who we consider a "friend"...

Science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind...Albert Einstein
by vbo on Thu Jun 29th, 2006 at 09:02:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I would agree with that.

"When the abyss stares at me, it wets its pants." Brian Hopkins
by EricC on Thu Jun 29th, 2006 at 07:45:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh and by the way, this was an exceptionally balanced and accurate description of the Kosovo issue. Possibly one of the best available anywhere... Impressive, Sirroco, bravo!

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Fri Jun 30th, 2006 at 10:34:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oops! The above was misplaced threadwise... Sorry!

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Fri Jun 30th, 2006 at 10:37:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by Sirocco (sirocco2005ATgmail.com) on Fri Jun 30th, 2006 at 11:22:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
vbo: Let me say that I do have personal friends who are Serbs and was shocked and disgusted at the NATO military intervention, which, quite predictably and apart from murder and the destruction of Serbian infrastructure, has guaranteed that Kosovo will for the forseeable future reaman an explosive nationalist issue, at the heart of the Balkans, ready to reignite, or trigger a nearby explosion, at the first chance. Incidentally, I am afraid that the aftermath of this series of Serb humiliations, will lead inexorably to the Radicals gaining power in Serbia, sooner or later, bythemselves or with equally scary allies.

However, having said all that, it seems that the idea that Kosovo is, was and should always remain Serb is flawed and unrealistic. Serbs voted with their feet over the past half-century, creating a reality on the ground that is now (and in the future will be even more) leading to permanent partition of one form or another. The idea that Albanians are "guests" in Kosovo is both unhistorical and unrealistic. Not only because Albanian speaking people have lived in the area for ages - and certainly before the "Slavic invasions", but also because in point of fact there is no way that in an area fiercely contested by opposing nationalisms, the majoritarian nationality will not tend to have the upper hand...

Although I am very much against the recognition of an independent Kosovo as things stand (being an example of victorious militancy, this sets a bad example in an area still quite teeming with minorities which are local majorities), it seems unlikely that in the long term Kosovo will be in any meaningful way Serb, apart from a small minority perhaps living there (or in a partitioned province). This is a fact. The only way it can be reversed is by a large scale military operation that will expel most of the current inhabitants and settle a new population. This would be a. impractical, b. unlikely and c. morally repugnant.

I tend to think that the least problematic of current options would be a large scale concerted and consensual redrawing of borders in the Balkans, affirming minority rights, repatriation of refugees and granting autonomous status to various population groups (as stated briefly here). The EU train (if it ever arrives) is still pretty far off, don't wait for it to arrive too soon, because you'll be disappointed.

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Fri Jun 30th, 2006 at 10:31:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by Sirocco (sirocco2005ATgmail.com) on Fri Jun 30th, 2006 at 11:23:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You are right in everything you said but if you know Serbs you'll know that we are hardly rational people.
And with Kosovo emotions are high. I personally visited Kosovo once in my entire life and that one time I was actually forced to go there because my husband was in the army (conscript). Being from Belgrade, I felt like I am not in my own country (more like Middle east)  and I did not feel safe at all ( it was 1977) or welcomed in any way. I have no any ties with Kosovo but even I feel it is ours...
You are perfectly right, it's not realistic but...as I said Serbs are used to waiting for historical chances keeping the idea alive through generations.
" C'erac'emo se josh"...is untranslatable and means something like "we'll storm each other yet again".
I tend to think that the least problematic of current options would be a large scale concerted and consensual redrawing of borders in the Balkans, affirming minority rights, repatriation of refugees and granting autonomous status to various population groups (as stated briefly here).
Oh my friend this is a real pipedream ...never happened in history...never ever ...and will not happen.

The EU train (if it ever arrives) is still pretty far off; don't wait for it to arrive too soon, because you'll be disappointed.
As for me personally I don't even believe EU will survive long enough to see anybody really benefit from it but westerners ...but if it somehow manage to become anything apart from economic union there is no chance that they can afford to have such big "hole" at such a strategic place...so count Serbs in. Informally they are in even today in many ways (I don't think I even like it, but I am pretty far away to have right to complain).
With independence of Kosovo, Europe is going to definitely open Pandora's Box...With provocation of Balkan wars and partition of Yugoslavia Europe and USA already opened it slightly. Don't forget that these are prosperous times for EU , USA but they can't last for ever without crises...and for this kinds of matters one's life time is to short...Who would have tell that in my life time I'll see collapse of USSR and eastern block ? Or Germans and Japanese after WWII being not just partners but "in bed" together with USA and Western Europe...I would never bet in politic...

Science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind...Albert Einstein

by vbo on Sat Jul 1st, 2006 at 11:10:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Excellent Sirocco. I read Kosovo news sources extensively during the period, and your retelling provides a perfect balance in my mind.

I would only add this to the narrative: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm199900/cmselect/cmfaff/28/2811.htm

The UK, Germany and the whole world knew that the events were fabricated in order to allow Western intervention. The UK parliament admitted as much, while allowing that such propaganda and lies were necessary to oust Milosevic. Therein precisely is the dilemma. Should Western democracies overthrow warlords and scum like Milosevic with deceitful propaganda of this sort? Even when a man like Milosevic is smart enought o pick his battles (Milosevic always deferred to Holbrooke when the USA go tough on him because he knew he didn't have a strong hand). I objected to NATO's execution of the war because they pinned Milosevic to a corner when clearly peace was in the offing. Instead, as usual, they wreaked mayhem and triggered an event which ended in the death of thousands. Sound familiar?

I may be cynical, but I find the military men who conducted this war just a shade less trustworthy than those conducting the current campaign in Iraq. I'm not at all convinced that Wesley Clark, for one, could have avoided an Iraq imbroglio. Democrats like having military men on "our" side since it cinches up our macho bonafides in the face of a Republican attempt to "feminize" the Democrats. The upshot us that we trust our military guys blindly, even if they are crypto-Republicans (Clark supported Bush in 2000).

by Upstate NY on Thu Jun 29th, 2006 at 03:18:32 PM EST
Thanks. I was bracing myself for the response to this, but the only objections so far have been from an apparently somewhat anti-Serb commenter at dKos, and were answerable.

More things could have been mentioned, such as William Cohen's infamous claims on May 16 of 100,000 murdered Albanians in mass graves, which evaporated like Iraqi WMD. (And Cohen wasn't even keen on intervention. The State Dept. at one point spoke of 500,000).

There are many parallels between the two wars, from the fact that both enemy statesmen agreed to the bulk of the respective ultimata, via the inadequate planning for the aftermath, to the brash dismissal of a need for explicit UNSC mandate. Especially the latter suggests that the Kosovo War became an important political stepping-stone to the Iraq War, an idea not weakened by this period piece from our friends at PNAC: 'Kosovo and the Republican Future' (pdf).

The world's northernmost desert wind.

by Sirocco (sirocco2005ATgmail.com) on Thu Jun 29th, 2006 at 04:12:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The upshot us that we trust our military guys blindly, even if they are crypto-Republicans (Clark supported Bush in 2000).

Minor note here: from what I've read, Clark voted for Gore in 2000. He also has been working very hard for Democratic candidates for the last several years - let's put the "crypto-Republican" attack to rest.

by lauramp on Thu Jun 29th, 2006 at 08:39:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Am I the first to call him a Republicrat? No. Point blank he was asked if he voted for him and he refused to answer. Who did he vote for prior to that? Nixon, Ford, Reagan twice, G.W. Bush. The only Demcorat he's on record as voting for since the 1960s is his personal friend Bill Clinton.

I've been following this guy for years. It's no secret that his bosses didn't think he had much integrity.

Here's what FAIR had to say about him:

Some other choice quotes I got from http://www.irregulartimes.com/wesleywho.html

"And I'm very glad we've got the great team in office, men like Colin Powell, Don Rumsfeld, Dick Cheney, Condoleezza Rice... people I know very well - our president George W. Bush. We need them there." - Clark in remarks delivered at the Pulaski County GOP Lincoln Day Dinner in Little Rock, Arkansas on May 11, 2001.

Uh, I'm guessing he voted for Bush.

I don't think i was far off at all when I said Clark would very likely have duplicated this administration's Iraq plans.

by Upstate NY on Fri Jun 30th, 2006 at 01:24:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That was excellent. Thank you.

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill
by r------ on Thu Jun 29th, 2006 at 10:50:43 PM EST

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