by Helen
Wed Jun 7th, 2006 at 05:34:45 PM EST
An interesting article by Michael Meacher MP on the subject of the futility of Tony Blair's dash for nuclear power. His major point is that "Peak Uranium" was passed in the 80s and that policies based on reliance on nuclear power are liable to end in tears..
http://society.guardian.co.uk/societyguardian/story/0,,1791356,00.html
Selected quotes below;-
One of the most serious reasons for opposing Tony Blair's premature go-ahead for nuclear power has so far not been mentioned. .......... The key issue is whether adequate supplies of uranium are available. They are not.
Do we now want to repeat the same mistake with nuclear as with oil ? The supply of uranium has already reached its peak, in 1981. There are 440 nuclear reactors worldwide, and the world produces just over half the uranium ore these plants consume each year.
So there's a problem. What about supply ?
At present, the gap is filled by using the plutonium from dismantled cold war nuclear weapon stockpiles. But this source is drying up and will end by 2013, so the industry is trying to find and develop new uranium mines, mainly in Canada, Australia and Kazakhstan.
However, those under development will fill only half the current gap, not to mention new demand from the 28 nuclear plants under construction worldwide, added to China's plan to build 30 new plants by 2020. As a result, about a quarter of nuclear power plants could be forced to shut down within a decade because of a lack of fuel.
China is already scrambling to corner contracts for uranium ore, and uranium prices have soared by 400% over the past six years. While the element uranium is commonly available, concentrated uranium ore suitable for energy is limited. Uranium ore is rock containing uranium mineralisation in concentrations that can be mined economically.
And the implication for prices is...?
Meanwhile, as demand rises and supplies fail to keep up, a 10-fold increase in the price of uranium over the next few years is not impossible. The Canadian, Australian and Russian governments clearly will not allow their own nuclear plants to close as a result of shortages, leaving the rest of the world - including the UK, which has no indigenous supplies of uranium - even more at the mercy of a fast diminishing market.
And his conclusion ?
Against this background, to shell out on a new round of reactors in the UK at £2bn a time, and then within a decade have to close perhaps 25% of them, must surely be the ultimate folly.
· Michael Meacher was environment minister 1997-2003.
