Tue Jul 25th, 2006 at 04:57:15 PM EST
Logically, all Israel can gain by making southern Lebanon a free fire zone is to reduce Hezbollah's fighting infrastructure in that region for a while. Which cannot buy but a bit of time before it all has to be done over again. Like clover, Hezbollah grows faster and taller after you cut it back.
No, there's much more at play here; these are early moves in the Great Game. This splendid little war is stagecraft to make it clearly necessary for America to attack Iran. That's the goal, about three moves ahead. Israel is just sacrificing a few pawns right now to clear the way forward.
Here's the gambit . . .
The American neocons need weakened or compliant states across the Middle East -- or else they fail at their Empire, and China becomes ascendant. The way to get weakened or compliant states is to buy them, threaten them, and when necessary attack them.
After bribes and threats fail, you go in and blow up every bridge, road, power plant, airport, dam, school, government building, hospital, TV station, ambulance and nursery. Break their kneecaps -- and then either leave their nation and populace staggering on while you do as you please in the region, or help them to establish a compliant puppet government that just loves you to bits and doesn't shoot at you too much. Ship in some food, paint some schools, and let freedom ring the cash register.
Hey, it's nuthin' personal. Just a bit of oil business, capice?
So, let's walk it backward -- the end goal is a shattered or compliant Iran. How do we get there?
Attack them. Break their legs.
Which means they have to give us one excuse, just one excuse . . .
To get Iran to 'attack' Israel-America in some way is the neocon's Holy Grail right now, since they cannot get Americans to go along with another oil war unless it's revenge for another "Pearl-Harbor type event."
Iran has to do something belligerent, has to be seen to attack Americans or threaten oil shipments or some such event. After that, the gloves can come off. Condi can draw her pistol and use it, just like a real man.
Provoking Iran to strike at Israel or America or at Western civilization in general requires America or Israel seriously bugging them -- how about by knocking out their strategic proxies right in their own backyard, the most prominent of which are Syria and Hezbollah? Let's go break their kneecaps.
That means reducing Hezbollah's turf and fighting infrastructure -- southern Lebanon. If necessary, that means attacking infrastructure in Syria, whose sovereignty Iran has sworn to defend.
Both are obviously losing moves to Israel, except insofar as they succeed in starting a war between Iran and America, which Iran can only lose, militarily. That makes these early Israeli moves good investments of every type of blood being spilled.
Provoking Iran to strike out, or to openly assist and defend their proxies, requires Israel's participation in a losing local war, fought for the sole purpose of starting a larger war which will greatly benefit Israel.
An Iranian war.
Will Iran take the bait? Absolutely -- since the American neocons and Israel absolutely will keep provoking until Iran does strike out. The American Empire is at stake, is at a crossroads with Tehran blocking all four lanes. America cannot give up on Empire, and yet America cannot dominate the Middle East with Iran intact.
As John Gotti would say, "We gotta whack 'em!"
There will be some incident, some incident that will do, and Mister Bush will give a speech saying America "clearly has no choice" but to take out Iran for the safety of mothers and babies everywhere.
This gambit is falling apart as it proceeds, so I do not think the speech will wait until the end of August. Those 2006 elections need to be about Republican victories overseas, or it's all over.
Maybe the incident will be kidnapping some Americans, or shooting some NATO peacekeepers. Maybe Hezbollah will hit oil terminals in Kuwait, or the Stock Exchange in New York, or CNN headquarters in Atlanta. With this much pressure on the lid, something will blow.
This is all part of the Great Game, which is at root an economic struggle over decades.
Looking out at the coming years, clearly China, Russia, and India are getting together and acting in their own interests lately, without regard to the West. Economically, the Orient is in the inside lane, ready to take the lead from Europe and America.
Even Latin America is moving up on the backstretch, aiming for a view of the future unobstructed by America's rear end.
To the casual and sane observer, the result of whacking the shit out of Iran will be to accelerate this gargantuan economic trend. The sane and casual observer would be absolutely right.
Right that is -- If. We. Lose.
Consider what Cheney and Rumsfeld and Perle n Feith n Wolfowitz n Cambone n all them other neocons see in this situation. These people are neither casual nor sane. What do they see?
Opportunity. The big brass ring.
Unable to afford the table stakes, holding losing cards, America kicks over the table, whacks Iran and Syria, gains dominance over the Caspian region -- and when the smoke clears China, India and Russia and whomever else wants to buy any Middle Eastern oil will HAVE TO come through America for their petrol or fight us for it.
And since no one can fight us, or beat us, America wins, uber alles. The neocons are acclaimed as the greatest heroes of American history, God is in his heaven, and all's well with the world.
What a glorious future! Rumsfeld must look in the shaving mirror every morning and say to himself, "We could be there in six weeks!"
That's how neocons think. That's how neocons create reality.
According to Cheney's careful prosthesis, we are going to lose the global petro struggle if we remain civilized about America's decline, if we do nothing impolite. So, why the hell not shoot off everything we've got and see if we don't win sumpin' hey?
"We're gonna lose the farm anyway, Gee Dubya -- so go ahead and bet the farm."
What's the worst that could happen?