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This Splendid Little War

by Antifa Tue Jul 25th, 2006 at 04:57:15 PM EST

Logically, all Israel can gain by making southern Lebanon a free fire zone is to reduce Hezbollah's fighting infrastructure in that region for a while. Which cannot buy but a bit of time before it all has to be done over again. Like clover, Hezbollah grows faster and taller after you cut it back.

No, there's much more at play here; these are early moves in the Great Game. This splendid little war is stagecraft to make it clearly necessary for America to attack Iran. That's the goal, about three moves ahead. Israel is just sacrificing a few pawns right now to clear the way forward.

Here's the gambit . . .

The American neocons need weakened or compliant states across the Middle East -- or else they fail at their Empire, and China becomes ascendant. The way to get weakened or compliant states is to buy them, threaten them, and when necessary attack them.

After bribes and threats fail, you go in and blow up every bridge, road, power plant, airport, dam, school, government building, hospital, TV station, ambulance and nursery. Break their kneecaps -- and then either leave their nation and populace staggering on while you do as you please in the region, or help them to establish a compliant puppet government that just loves you to bits and doesn't shoot at you too much. Ship in some food, paint some schools, and let freedom ring the cash register.

Hey, it's nuthin' personal. Just a bit of oil business, capice?

So, let's walk it backward -- the end goal is a shattered or compliant Iran. How do we get there?

Attack them. Break their legs.

Which means they have to give us one excuse, just one excuse . . .

To get Iran to 'attack' Israel-America in some way is the neocon's Holy Grail right now, since they cannot get Americans to go along with another oil war unless it's revenge for another "Pearl-Harbor type event."

Iran has to do something belligerent, has to be seen to attack Americans or threaten oil shipments or some such event. After that, the gloves can come off. Condi can draw her pistol and use it, just like a real man.

Provoking Iran to strike at Israel or America or at Western civilization in general requires America or Israel seriously bugging them -- how about by knocking out their strategic proxies right in their own backyard, the most prominent of which are Syria and Hezbollah? Let's go break their kneecaps.

That means reducing Hezbollah's turf and fighting infrastructure -- southern Lebanon. If necessary, that means attacking infrastructure in Syria, whose sovereignty Iran has sworn to defend.

Both are obviously losing moves to Israel, except insofar as they succeed in starting a war between Iran and America, which Iran can only lose, militarily. That makes these early Israeli moves good investments of every type of blood being spilled.

Provoking Iran to strike out, or to openly assist and defend their proxies, requires Israel's participation in a losing local war, fought for the sole purpose of starting a larger war which will greatly benefit Israel.

An Iranian war.

Will Iran take the bait? Absolutely -- since the American neocons and Israel absolutely will keep provoking until Iran does strike out. The American Empire is at stake, is at a crossroads with Tehran blocking all four lanes. America cannot give up on Empire, and yet America cannot dominate the Middle East with Iran intact.

As John Gotti would say, "We gotta whack 'em!"

There will be some incident, some incident that will do, and Mister Bush will give a speech saying America "clearly has no choice" but to take out Iran for the safety of mothers and babies everywhere.

This gambit is falling apart as it proceeds, so I do not think the speech will wait until the end of August. Those 2006 elections need to be about Republican victories overseas, or it's all over.

Maybe the incident will be kidnapping some Americans, or shooting some NATO peacekeepers. Maybe Hezbollah will hit oil terminals in Kuwait, or the Stock Exchange in New York, or CNN headquarters in Atlanta. With this much pressure on the lid, something will blow.

This is all part of the Great Game, which is at root an economic struggle over decades.

Looking out at the coming years, clearly China, Russia, and India are getting together and acting in their own interests lately, without regard to the West. Economically, the Orient is in the inside lane, ready to take the lead from Europe and America.

Even Latin America is moving up on the backstretch, aiming for a view of the future unobstructed by America's rear end.

To the casual and sane observer, the result of whacking the shit out of Iran will be to accelerate this gargantuan economic trend. The sane and casual observer would be absolutely right.

Right that is -- If. We. Lose.

Consider what Cheney and Rumsfeld and Perle n Feith n Wolfowitz n Cambone n all them other neocons see in this situation. These people are neither casual nor sane. What do they see?

Opportunity. The big brass ring.

Unable to afford the table stakes, holding losing cards, America kicks over the table, whacks Iran and Syria, gains dominance over the Caspian region -- and when the smoke clears China, India and Russia and whomever else wants to buy any Middle Eastern oil will HAVE TO come through America for their petrol or fight us for it.

And since no one can fight us, or beat us, America wins, uber alles. The neocons are acclaimed as the greatest heroes of American history, God is in his heaven, and all's well with the world.

What a glorious future! Rumsfeld must look in the shaving mirror every morning and say to himself, "We could be there in six weeks!"

That's how neocons think. That's how neocons create reality.

According to Cheney's careful prosthesis, we are going to lose the global petro struggle if we remain civilized about America's decline, if we do nothing impolite. So, why the hell not shoot off everything we've got and see if we don't win sumpin' hey?

"We're gonna lose the farm anyway, Gee Dubya -- so go ahead and bet the farm."

What's the worst that could happen?

Here's How I See It
. It's all about oil, for as long as it lasts. 16%
. This here shit just means Jesus is coming back, that's all. 16%
. I'm sorry, which Crusade are we on? I lost the count. 33%
. Wolf Blitzer doesn't see it this way, and he's on TV. 0%
. Sheesh! The diarist is clearly on meds he doesn't take. 33%
. If China's economy gets any bigger . . . we'll . . . we'll die! 0%
. Street protests will stop the next war. 0%

Votes: 6
Results | Other Polls

It's like watching some Cosa Nostra goombahs talkin' with their hands on a Brooklyn corner.

La Cosa Nuestra - "this thing of ours."


Americans: "Lissen up just lissen a me, this New American Century, this thing of ours, means we gotta run the whole Middle East Side from now on, capice?"

Saudis: "No no no, we'll lose our kingdom to the populace, we'll lose this thing of ours."

Iran: "We're the regional power ever since Iraq got whacked. That's just how it is, baby. You can't touch this thing of ours."

Jordan: "This thing of ours ain't much, but it's all I got. Don't do this shit is all I'm sayin' okay?"

Israel: "Allah youse guys is gettin' too big for your britches, ya know? Ya wanna ruin this thing of ours."

Syria: "Back off, Izzy. This thing of ours is none of your business."

Lebanon: "Ow! Hey, whud I doo? Whud I doo!?!?"

Afghanistan: "So you guys want this heroin or what?"

Pakistan: "Lessee, whack Musharraf today . . . or wait till the weekend? Go get some extra falafel, Abdul, we're gonna go to the mattresses pretty quick here.  Hey!! Where the fuck is my plutonium!?!"

Frames exist within larger frames. Draw a larger frame around your opponent's frame; he will appear wrong or insufficient. This is how wizards play.

by Antifa (antifa@bellsouth.net) on Tue Jul 25th, 2006 at 04:58:11 PM EST
Great diary.

Great history. Nevertheless, there are serious problem in this analysis....well aybe i just disagree :)

On Iran, the neocon can not overcome the strategic advantage of Iran due to the Ormuz control.Iran is attacked? oil is cut from the rest of the world. Inmediate state of emergency. Economy goes down ...The only reason to do will be to try to impose extreme measures in the US...but the powers that be in the US would never allow it. Too much at stake to allow for a formal dictature in the US.

On China, they have the strong problem of coal independence. If China has to go through the US for oil..they will just switch to coal. No problem.Now they do not have so many cars..and their economy does not depend on them too much..yet. So now, oil control will hardly effect china..even less Russia..or Brazil

On Russia, russia has all the aces of the poker game. First they have energy resources, second, they have gas and Europe cooperation. And most importnatly , they have the best weapon delivery system in the world: they can deliver from nuclear weapons to intermediate misiles with a breaking tehcnology...you may not know it...but russia won the arms race...sshhhh do not tell anybody...it is top-secret...they just do not have a trained army... yet.

and On Europe...well..oh..Europe...

On Hezbolla...for Israel is enough to weaken them..as far as Israel is concerned...I really hope the strategic goal is an international force on the border...and the smae way with Iran..weaken them with international cooperation...but his will mean they are smart....and this is still not clear....as the firt days of bombing show (useless from the genral strategic point of view...even using your pespective)

But great diary.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Jul 25th, 2006 at 05:18:12 PM EST
Those 2006 elections need to be about Republican victories overseas, or it's all over.

Assuming that fear as an input leads to pro-war nationalism as the output is simplistic and poor form.

There is a larger point about the American public to be made here. When gas is at $12 a gallon in the US and the world economy goes into an instant depression after mideast oil is cutoff, American citizens are going to wake up from a long slumber. A broad US middle class with an easy lifestyle that has existed for decades has allowed public rhetoric on foreign policy to be argued on purely ideological grounds as foreign policy hasn't had a perceptible impact on American life since WW2 (with the exception of Vietnam - the draft broadly impacted the middle class, thus the ensuing backlash). There are very few realists from either end of the political spectrum - hardly anyone in the American public argues from solid grounds of human dignity and rights on the left nor do many make good arguments as to what a solid American empire requires on the right.

The point is that once this rug is pulled from underneath the American public, I have no idea what is going to happen. Modern propaganda techniques will no longer make public reactions predictable as propaganda doesn't provide food, jobs, or shelter (or do I mean bread and circuses?). To write out all the possible scenarios and their branches would take many pages. I wrote a paragraph on it and realized it would be pointless to even start.

Snarky diaries aside, we really are in a struggle for the world's remaining oil supplies, because we need them for survival. The world's big actors will fight to the end for them, and likely make near term choices in regards to securing them that will fantastically damage their long term prospects. So it has always been. You're not going to go out lightly either - you may never support criminals like Bush, Cheney, and Rumsfeld, but you won't willingly starve to death either.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Wed Jul 26th, 2006 at 03:20:02 AM EST
The Iranians -- and anyone else who interferes with America's oil habit -- will be treated as Geronimo and Crazy Horse were.

Frames exist within larger frames. Draw a larger frame around your opponent's frame; he will appear wrong or insufficient. This is how wizards play.
by Antifa (antifa@bellsouth.net) on Thu Jul 27th, 2006 at 05:16:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think that's true initially, but I also think it will force some hard thinking on the vaguely isolationist and somewhat racist conservative side of the public on energy independance.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Thu Jul 27th, 2006 at 05:00:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So let me get it straight...You think that Hizbullah was asked to attack Israel by...BUSH?

You're kidding,right?

by messy on Fri Jul 28th, 2006 at 03:02:40 PM EST
You're kidding, right?

Read it slowly this time; that may help.

Frames exist within larger frames. Draw a larger frame around your opponent's frame; he will appear wrong or insufficient. This is how wizards play.

by Antifa (antifa@bellsouth.net) on Sat Jul 29th, 2006 at 03:04:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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