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European Breakfast - August 2

by Fran Tue Aug 1st, 2006 at 11:27:57 PM EST

"When we remember we are all mad, the mysteries disappear and life stands explained."

Mark Twain


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EUROPEAN NEWS
by Fran on Tue Aug 1st, 2006 at 11:29:04 PM EST
Deutsche Welle: Fischer Visits Iran as Calls for a Diplomatic Role Gather Pace

Former German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer began a four-day visit to Iran Monday as the guest of a Tehran think-tank with a growing chorus calling for him to return to the Middle East in a more official capacity.

"I am not coming back," Joschka Fischer said at the end of June, brushing aside suggestions he could return to fight another day for Germany's Green party. "The door is closed; the key has been turned and thrown away."

The new professor of international economic policy at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs may have meant every word he said when stepping down from government to concentrate on his new teaching position in the United States. But in the space of almost a month, the former German foreign minister's expertise in the Middle East has become a more valuable commodity; one which some wish to use again.

The war in Lebanon and the rapidly disintegrating relationship between the West and Iran over the Islamic Republic's nuclear ambitions have turned up the heat in the pressure cooker region, with diplomats from all nations struggling to find viable solutions to the problems in the Middle East.

by Fran on Tue Aug 1st, 2006 at 11:36:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Khaleej Times: Council of Europe deplores Israeli killing of civilians in Lebanon

STRASBOURG - Russia spoke out as head of the 46-nation Council of Europe on Tuesday to "deplore" the killing of civilians by Israeli forces in Lebanon, after 52 died in Sunday's raid on the village of Qana.

"The Russian presidency in the Council of Europe profoundly deplores the mass deaths of civilians in Lebanon caused by Israel's attacks," said a statement released here by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

Lavrov, current chairman of the European democracy and rights body's decision-making Committee of Ministers, cited "in particular, the death of dozens of residents of Qana, including women and children."

The statement came after condemnations of the Qana raid and calls for a ceasefire in the region poured in from around the globe on Monday amid angry street protests and mourning in Lebanon and several other countries.

The council also judged that the Israeli strike violated international law, the statement said.

"The killings and wounding of innocent civilians of all sides involved as a result of the escalation of tensions in the Middle East represent a flagrant violation of international humanitarian law, human rights, including the most important right--the right to life," it said.

"The Council of Europe, being a guardian of human rights, regards these evident gross violations as unacceptable."

by Fran on Tue Aug 1st, 2006 at 11:37:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Deutsche Welle: EU Fails to Agree on Immediate Mideast Ceasefire Call

The European Union failed Tuesday to call for an immediate ceasefire in the Middle East, preferring instead to demand an "immediate cessation of hostilities," the bloc's presidency said.

In a carefully worded joint declaration agreed after more than three hours of haggling at this rare August crisis meeting of the 25-member block, foreign ministers said a "sustainable ceasefire" should follow the cessation of hostilities, without elaborating on the difference between the two.

The failure came after Britain and Germany, backed by The Netherlands, rejected a draft compromise by the EU's Finnish presidency calling for an "immediate ceasefire" between Israel and Hezbelloh, according to diplomats.

"The Council (of EU ministers) calls for an immediate cessation of hostilities to be followed by a sustainable ceasefire," said Finnish Foreign Minister Erkki Tuomioja, whose country holds the EU's rotating presidency.

....
The Finnish EU president also said the bloc does not intend on adding Hezbollah to its list of terrorist organizations at the present time.

"Given the sensitive situation, I don't think this is something we will be acting on now, Tuomioja told the news conference after the meeting.

His remarks were in response to a letter signed by 213 members of the United States Congress, which was sent to EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana. It asked that the EU add Hezbollah to its terrorist list.


by Fran on Tue Aug 1st, 2006 at 11:38:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The failure came after Britain and Germany, backed by The Netherlands, rejected a draft compromise by the EU's Finnish presidency calling for an "immediate ceasefire" between Israel and Hezbelloh, according to diplomats.

So was it the Dutch, the Czech or both that voted with the UK and Germany?

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 01:40:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
El Pais: Spain, prepared to send hundreds of soldiers to Lebanon on the UN's request (02-08-2006)
Military experts size the Spanish contribution as at least a batallion of 800 soldiers

Spain is prepared to participate "with a significant contribution" in the future peace force that, under UN mandate, will be deployed in Southern Lebanon once an agreement between the parties is reached, according to different government sources. Although the conversations between the countries prepared to contribute troops are still in an initial phase, it is taken as certain that leadership willl correspond to France and that the force will have a "robust" mandaate and authorisation to use force. Military experts number Spain's contribbution as "at least" a batallion of 800 soldiers.

While Israel continues the bombing campaign started last 12 July -in retaliation for an attack by the Shia militia Hezbollah- and diplomatic repersentatives seek an agreement between the parties, military commanders have begun to plan the future multinational force that, rather sooner than later, must be deployed in Southern Lebanon to guarantee the ceasefire or -in the words of the Foreign Ministers gathered in Brussels yesterday- en palabras de los ministros de Exteriores de la UE reunidos ayer en Bruselas- "cessation of hostilities" between the parties is observed.

[translation mine]

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 02:36:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, at least Spain and France have no negative history with Muslims...
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 02:38:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Spanish foreign minister, who was the EU's special envoy to the Middle East before rising to his incompetence level, will meet Hezbollah's ministers in the Lebanese cabinet today (El Pais). I have to admit I'm a little miffed by the possibility of France leading another Algerian operation. On the other hand, France enjoys good will in Lebanon and has strong ties to it as the former colonial power.

Only Al Qaeda and Aznar think Spain's history with muslims is a problem.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 03:26:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But since right now I am opposed to an international force being deployed in Lebanon, I don't like the idea. We seem to have accepted that we're going to do Israel's counter-insurgency for them. Then again, it's probably better to have somewhat civilised troops on the ground rather than the Americans or the Israelis.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 03:36:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I tend to agree with you. I'm more and more beginning to see Israel's machinations as black-mail towards the international community. The more we rush into every situation Israel puts itself in, the more Israel will continue to putting 'facts on the ground' by means of it's flaunting of international law.
by high5 (high5104@gmail.com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 04:52:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I mean, it's all fine to accept faits accoplis and deploy an interposition force even on the premise that by doing so we can stop Israeli aggression.

But, really, isn't Israel going to be punished for this>
Haaretz: Oil spilled from IAF bombed power plant pollutes Lebanon's coast (29/07/2006)

A south Lebanon power plant that was knocked down by Israel Air Force planes some two weeks ago caused a massive oil spill along the Beirut's coast.

Lebanon has made an urgent request to the UN in recent days for assistance in the ecological crisis.

Fishermen say hundreds of oil-coated fish have been washed ashore in what is the country's worst ever environmental disaster.

...

The plant was in flames after it was hit in IAF air raids, cutting off electricity to many areas in the capital and south Lebanon.

...

Ariss said it appeared other factors also contributed to the environmental disaster - a leak from an Egyptian commercial boat that was apparently hit by a Hezbollah missile off Beirut, another leak from an Israeli gunboat also hit by Hezbollah, as well as effluent from a cement factory in northern Lebanon that was attacked by Israeli forces.

"It's a little bit more than speculation. There are targets we knew contained oil and spilled; they received direct hits, some of them burned," he said.

What in the world was the justification for bombing a power plant? What was Israel's excuse? And they bombed a cement factory which also spilled in to the sea. A cement factory in northern Lebanon? I mean, I can understand wanting to cut power to Southern Lebanon.

Never mind Lebanon, this is the Mediterranean's worst ever environmental disaster.

Is Israel going to pay for this stuff? Not if the UK and Germany can avoid it.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 05:05:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How about a counter-balancing force deployed into the West Bank to protect the 1967 border from Israeli incursion and end all settler aggression ?

That would force Israel to settle with Hezbollah as they would want any such force to leave as soon as possible so that they could carry on with the sequestration of all palestinian land.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 05:47:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ha. That'd be fun to see.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 05:48:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You want to go to war with Israel?

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 05:51:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Isn't it sad that we're at such a point that forcing a country to do the right thing is seen as an act of war ?

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 06:21:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Forcing a country to do what it doesn't want to on territory it controls requires war. Last time I looked, Israel had permanently annexed a chunk of the West Bank and enclosed it with a wall. An international force deployed there would of necessity end up killing a settler in a firefight. If you wanted to impose a no-fly zone over Lebanon you'd have to shoot Israeli planes down. You could not get UNSC authorisation for either action because of US (and UK) veto.

Can we at least be realistic about the reasons why we allow Israel's actions to go on?

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 09:07:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How about a peace-keeping force in the Gaza that would stop them from firing their rockets into Israel? How about an international community effort to make Hamas recognize the Israeli state without talking out of both ends of their mouths?

Mikhail from SF
by Tsarrio (dj_tsar@yahoo.com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 05:25:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How about confining the IAF to Israel's 1968 borders by imposing a no-fly zone over Labanon, Golan, Jordan, West Bank, Gaza and Sinai?

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 05:32:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How about we fix everything NOW NOW NOW. I WANT IT NOW!

I am tired, tired, tired, listening to people who expect to defuse problems that are tens or hundreds of years old NOW! It doesn't work. You have to move slowly, you have to bring people along with you on all the sides involved. Hamas can't recognise the Israeli state unequivocally yet. They needed the space to do that. It wasn't afforded them so more will die. And more and more and more. The Palestinian situation could probably be sorted out reasonably well over fifteen or twenty years if the people holding the power (EU, US and the Middle East states mostly) put their minds to it. But they don't. Anyway, the Israeli politicians don't want peace and neither do a lot of hardliners on the other side. So more children die.

Some will die during a peace process. More will die without one.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 05:32:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Amen. FWIW since Hamas took power there has been a split developing between the Hamas government and Hamas hardliners led by its leadership in exile with the former moving in the direction of an acceptance of a two state solution, albeit not on terms that the Israelis would ever accept.  To me it looked a lot like what began happening on the Israeli right when Sharon started moving to the center - again an acceptance of a two state solution but not on realistic terms.
by MarekNYC on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 06:00:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
FWIW since Hamas took power there has been a split developing between the Hamas government and Hamas hardliners led by its leadership in exile with the former moving in the direction of an acceptance of a two state solution, albeit not on terms that the Israelis would ever accept.

Which is why Israel's policy of strangling the Palestinian Authority is counter-productive, and I can't understand why the EU had to go along with it. I thought we knew better from our own experience with domestic terrorism (IRA, ETA...)

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 06:05:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Gaza strip isn't very wide (in some parts it's less than 7 km). Rockets that can fly for tens of kilometers could never be stopped unless the whole area was occupied  and every house constantly patrolled.

It would probably be easier to get Hamas to recognize Israel than to prevent people in Gaza from firing rockets into Israel.

Now looking at the Hamas' covenant, the preface says: "Israel will exist and will continue to exist until Islam will obliterate it". Ok there, they recognize Israel! And acknowledge that Israel will one day be a Muslim country, probably thanks to a higher birthrate among Israeli Muslims than among other groups. Hamas is just another hippie organisation ...

by Alex in Toulouse on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 05:39:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Let me quote the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics:

Israeli Muslims have a natural reproduction rate that is double that of the Jewish population. The figures, which also include Muslims in East Jerusalem, show that at the beginning of 2003 there were more than one million Muslims in Israel. [...] The Muslim population's average natural rate of increase over the past few years is double that of the Jewish population: 3.6% compared to 1.8%. This rate of increase is one of the highest in the world, even higher than in neighboring Arab countries.
by Alex in Toulouse on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 05:43:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Apparently Arabs (I wonder why the statistics bureau says "Muslims" and "Jewish") in Israel already represent 23% of the population. 25 years (1 generation) from now they'll be at 51%. Alala, l'insouciance ...
by Alex in Toulouse on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 05:56:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ps: this was cheap sensationalism by Commander Alex in Toulouse
by Alex in Toulouse on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 05:58:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Because there are Jewish Arabs in Israel. The distinction is religious.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 06:11:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ach, I always thought that Sephardi Jews, say from Morocco, were not only religiously but also ethnically Jewish (using my past experience of countries, say such as Uzbekistan, where under "ethnic group" on one's passport, you'll find "Tatar" or "Jewish"). The things we learn!

Just read the wikipedia page on them.

by Alex in Toulouse on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 06:17:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I mean "I just read" (I'm not using the imperative to force you to read it!)
by Alex in Toulouse on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 06:18:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
n Israel already represent 23% of the population. 25 years (1 generation) from now they'll be at 51%

I somehow doubt that. Even if one includes the 200,000 or so in E. Jerusalem there were a total of 1.34 million Arabs out of a total population of 6.87 million (as of the end of 2004). Even if the non-Arab population were not growing  it would need to quadruple to get to that level. Quick ballpark mental calculation tells me that is about a six percent annual growth rate. As the Jewish population is also growing it would need to be even higher. According to the Israeli figures the Arab population is set to grow to 25% or so by 2020.

by MarekNYC on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 06:18:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, it was supposed to be sensationalism (I didn't quote any sources!).
by Alex in Toulouse on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 06:23:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Just thought of something that could make the balance tip in favour of the higher percentage: the median age of Israeli Arabs is at 18 while that of Israeli Jews is at 30.
by Alex in Toulouse on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 06:24:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, to begin with Alex's starting Muslim to Jewish ratio of 23:77 is approximately 1:3 while your 1.34:6.87 is approximately 1:5. Assuming the rates of growth Alex quotes are correct (3.6% v. 1.8%) the Muslim-to-Jewish ratio would grow at 1.77% per year. From 23:77 it would take 96 years to exceed 1:1, while from 1.34:6.87 it would take 147 years.

From your starting point it would take 31 years for the Muslim population to reach 25% (1:3 ratio).

It seems Israel is not faced with a demographic bomb either way.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 06:36:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sorry, that's nonsense.

69 years from 23:77 to 1:1, and 93 years from 1.34:6.87 to 1:1

The 31 years from 1.34:6.87 to 1:3 is correct.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 06:42:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You had me fooled ;)
by Alex in Toulouse on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 06:44:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I have no idea how I managed to get my first set of numbers, with double-checking and all. I need a vacation.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 06:46:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My last question before going to bed: when is your vacation due?
by Alex in Toulouse on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 06:48:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The day of the ET meetup.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 06:51:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
To use a French word that has made its way into Polish, sensationalism is so passé.

Next time I'll put 50 years to make it look more authentic.

by Alex in Toulouse on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 06:43:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, to begin with Alex's starting Muslim to Jewish ratio of 23:77 is approximately 1:3 while your 1.34:6.87 is approximately 1:5.

My figure was 1.34 out of 6.87 million, not 1.34 million vs. 6.87 million non-Arabs (btw. the 'non Arab' rather than Jewish figure is used because most of the 'non Jewish, non Arab' Israeli citizens are spouses or children of mixed marriages with a non-Jewish mother, generally ex-USSR immigrants)

by MarekNYC on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 06:51:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Indeed. Using your numbers and those growth figures, the year Israeli Arabs become a majority would be 2085, and the year they passed 25% would be 2023.

Still not a situation like in Northern Ireland. I note 2004 births were 100,000 Jews and 36,000 Muslims, with birthrates of 2.71 resp. 4.36 per woman, so getting ahead just in newborns seems three generations away.

On the other hand, Israel now has a fourth year of net emigration.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Aug 7th, 2006 at 09:36:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I am still not convinced that this is a serious offer, i.e. one that doesn't depend on a lot of improbable conditions and is more than symbolic.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 04:58:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, first you have to have a ceasefire. But I get the impression that the international community has completely capitulated to Israel. "Please, please, let us go in and clean up and rebuild Lebanon and we'll let you off the hook for the wanton destruction you have caused".

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 05:06:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The council also judged that the Israeli strike violated international law, the statement said.

So why didn't the UK, Germany and Czechia block this one? Must be because nobody cares what the CoE says...

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 01:37:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
BBC: Yukos declared bankrupt by court

Troubled Russian oil firm Yukos has been declared bankrupt by a court in Moscow, clearing the way for the firm to be liquidated.

The decision ends a three-year court battle for survival, after Yukos was hit with a huge back tax bill.

The saga has seen former Yukos chief Mikhail Khodorkovsky jailed and parts of the oil firm's empire sold off.

"It's the death sentence for the company," Yukos lawyer Drew Holliner said after the ruling.

Arbitration Court judge Pavel Markov's decision came as "little surprise", Mr Holliner said, given that Russian tax authorities and state-owned oil firm Rosneft are the group's biggest creditors.

The court ruling backs a vote by shareholders which had rejected Yukos's assurances that it could remain in business and pay the $17bn (£9bn) it owes to creditors.

by Fran on Tue Aug 1st, 2006 at 11:42:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I've never seen a serious evaluation of the tax claims made after Yukos : all occidental newspaper seem to imply it was purely political but I've seen no precise allegation that specific tax claims were fake.

Did Yukos cheat on its taxes?

(The fact that tax cheating is a national sport has no impact on the legitimacy of the tax authority to go after any frauder it chooses.)

by Laurent GUERBY on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 06:39:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yukos Part VI: Tax Claims Revisited

Condensed conclusion:


  • The schemes allegedly run by Yukos would be consider blatant forms of tax evasion in most counties.

  • The Tax Authorities in the Resolution refer to as many as five distinct theories under which such schemes could be challenged under Russian law.

  • The Tax Authorities argue that the shell companies were simply not entitled to tax concessions under the relevant local legislation despite somehow having managed to have been granted these concessions by the local authorities.

  • Since the shell companies clearly do not have assets to pay the back taxes assessed to them under Theory 3a, the authorities seek to collect payment from Yukos. Russian law provides "veil piercing" mechanisms (Theory 3b) which allow the Tax Authorities to seek recovery from Yukos under the facts alleged (as the law in most other countries would as well).

  • The Tax Authorities introduce an additional theory for assessing back taxes to Yukos directly: they seek to attack the alleged schemes on the basis that Yukos effectively "parked" its assets with shell companies as a way to hide revenue and profits (Theory 4). If these assets are viewed as belonging to Yukos, then none of the tax concessions claimed would apply and Yukos would be liable for the full tax bill.

  • The Tax Authorities attempt to establish with this case yet one more broad and controversial theory: the idea that the Tax Authorities may challenge any legal structure (even if it include separate legal entities and numerous contracts) if such structure was established for no purpose other than the avoidance of tax (Theory 5). Tax authorities apply such a rule in the US, UK, Germany and other countries.  

by blackhawk on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 08:35:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
From the wikipedia


In July 2004, Yukos was charged with tax evasion, for an amount of over US$7 billion. The Russian government accused the company of misusing tax havens inside Russia in the 1990s so as to reduce its tax burden; havens were set up by most major oil producers in outlying areas of Russia which had been granted special tax status to assist in their economic development; such "onshore-offshore" were used to evade profit taxes, resulting in Yukos having an effective tax rate of 11%, vs a statutory rate of 30% at the time. Yukos claims its actions were legal at the time. Yukos subsidiaries also declared the oil they produced to be "oil-containing liquids" [3] to avoid paying full taxes. Moreover, only Yukos was charged with such tax evasion.

In a move to prevent bankruptcy, management made a friendly offer to the government to pay 8 billion dollars in a period of three years.

A management presentation from December 2004 shows that the tax claims put the "total tax burden" for 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2003 at 67%, 105%, 111%, and 83% of the company's declared revenue during those years ([4]). As a comparison, the annual tax bill of Gazprom is about $4 billion on 2003 revenues of $28.867 billion.

A good deal of the Yukos defense rested on the "Everyboy was doing it" argument.  But there's also the inconsistent application of not just the law, but from what I get from this article, the very tax code itself.  

Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. -Voltaire

by p------- on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 08:36:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I've never seen a serious evaluation of the tax claims made after Yukos : all occidental newspaper seem to imply it was purely political but I've seen no precise allegation that specific tax claims were fake.

Did Yukos cheat on its taxes?

The best and most detailed analysis of the case I've seen can be found at Johnson's Russia List. It's a huge read, but extremely fascinating.
by Sargon on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 10:20:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Spiegel Online: LETTER FROM BERLIN - Germany's Mideast Balancing Act

Though Steinmeier and his boss, German Chancellor Angela Merkel of the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party, seem to be speaking in tandem on the Middle East violence, the latest escalation has shed light on party divisions in the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the junior coalition partner in the federal government.

A rift in the SPD

Merkel has declared the Middle East crisis as the main issue on her political agenda and she has filled her days with calls to the key actors on the diplomatic stage: Putin, Olmert, Bush, Chirac and Blair. But as the chancellor engages in telephone diplomacy with world leaders, the different political factions of the left-leaning Social Democratic Party (SPD) of former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder have been wrestling amongst themselves over the appropriate stance to take on the Middle East. The party is struggling to find the balance between Germany's special responsibility to Israel and its disgust over the civilian deaths taking place as Jerusalem bombs Lebanon.

Many in the party's leftist base, led by German Development Minister Heidemarie Wieczoreck-Zeul, want the SPD to call for an "immediate cease-fire" in the Middle East. "We need an immediate cease-fire," she said, "people are dying there every day."

Wieczoreck-Zeul was so insistent about getting that message across that she even invited herself to a telephone meeting of the SPD's executive committee last week -- despite the fact that she isn't a member.

Still, for a party crasher, Wieczoreck-Zeul got a largely warm reception with many of the committee's members, including the party's deputy chairwoman, Ute Vogt, who said SPD "base (voters) expect us to do this."

But others in the party -- led by Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier and SPD General Secretary Hubertus Heil -- see little point in demanding a cease-fire when neither Israel nor Lebanon necessarily wants one. "What is the point of such a declaration when the main participants simply aren't prepared to call a cease-fire," the foreign minister asked. In the end, the party executive didn't issue any official statement, but it became apparent that a majority of committee members supported it -- in opposition to their foreign minister.

by Fran on Tue Aug 1st, 2006 at 11:43:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But others in the party -- led by Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier and SPD General Secretary Hubertus Heil -- see little point in demanding a cease-fire when neither Israel nor Lebanon necessarily wants one. "What is the point of such a declaration when the main participants simply aren't prepared to call a cease-fire," the foreign minister asked. In the end, the party executive didn't issue any official statement, but it became apparent that a majority of committee members supported it -- in opposition to their foreign minister.

Yeah, what's the point of saying anything other people don't want to hear? And this coming from the Foreign minister?

Note how the article first says "Israel and Lebanon don't necessarily want a ceasefire" (false: Lebanon wants one), and this paraphrasing Steinmeyer's "the main participants". The journalist is identifying Hezbollah and Lebanon as usual.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 01:46:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Though Steinmeier and his boss, German Chancellor Angela Merkel of the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party, seem to be speaking in tandem on the Middle East violence, the latest escalation has shed light on party divisions in the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the junior coalition partner in the federal government.

As I said...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 04:11:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Guardian: Blair: Middle East strategy is not working  

Tony Blair called for a fundamental reappraisal of British and US foreign policy yesterday, admitting that excessive emphasis on military power and failure to address the Palestinian issue had left the west losing the battle for hearts and minds in the Middle East.

In a speech to the World Affairs Council in Los Angeles, the prime minister admitted "we are far from persuading those we need to persuade" that western values were even-handed, fair and just in their application. He said there was no point disguising the damage being done to the cause of peace in the Middle East by the war on the Lebanese border, but suggested that when the war finally ended "we must commit ourselves to a complete renaissance of our strategy to defeat those that threaten us".

Mr Blair said it was necessary "to change dramatically the focus of our policy", admitting: "In the short term we are not winning."

He added that even in the west "a vast part of opinion is not remotely near understanding" that the battles in Iraq and Lebanon are "part of a wider struggle for the soul of the Middle East".

by Fran on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 12:03:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This guy is dangerously deluded.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 01:27:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
At first Tony

"we must commit ourselves to a complete renaissance of our strategy to defeat those that threaten us".

how about taking a deep breath and for a moment stop the insane insistance ""they" are "threatening us"? You know, starting any dialog by insisting "they" are "threatening us" stops any dialog dead in it's tracks and by the wayside only reveals how patethic your position really is.

Mr Blair said it was necessary "to change dramatically the focus of our policy", admitting: "In the short term we are not winning."

You know Tony, any "win" by "us" can only be short term anyway. To have a long term solution it must be a win-win and you'll never get to a win-win position by constantly crying foul that "they" are "threatening us".

Now, go back to bed Tony. The monsters aren't under your bed, they're in your head.

by high5 (high5104@gmail.com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 05:11:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Mail and Guardian [NZ]: Arnie tips Blair for Terminator Tony (01 August 2006)
"I really can't give him advice," said Austria-born "Arnie" following their discussions with industry leaders at British oil giant BP's Port of Long Beach facility.

"Maybe head of the United Nations, maybe something that is a step up. Who knows what it is because it is a big job that he has right now," he added.

"I think whatever job he wants he will get because he's got such a good success rate at home and he's done such a remarkable job in Europe and England and in the world as a leader.

"If he wants a job in Hollywood I could get him to play Terminator 4."

...

To Schwarzenegger's offer, he said: "That's definitely the best offer I've had.

"Actually, the sad thing is, it's the only offer I've had."

Boo-fucking-hoo, Tony. I heard your friend Rupert is saving you a seat on his board next to Aznar?

That's just what we need, Blair at the UN. <eeek>

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 05:19:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It is depressing. A full de-construction of all the fallcies and muddle-headed simplicities implied in this short statement could fill a book.

How about accepting that the wanton massacre of innocent people in bombings, raids, pacifications are massively counter-productive ? You don't enforce democracy, especially by destroying everything in sight.

They never defined their goals. The exercise of military strength is not an end in itself. It must be in service to political aims, and their practice must be consistent with those aims. Smashing a country to powder is not a political end-point and is unlikely to pacify a population.

Yet these cold-war warriors just can't understand and our world is being unmade because we allow these fools to play in our sandpit.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 05:56:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
WORLD NEWS
by Fran on Tue Aug 1st, 2006 at 11:29:42 PM EST
Independent: Viva Fidel? Cuba wakes up to life after Castro

It was barely 8am in the sweltering centre of Havana when the small group of workers gathered to offer support for their ailing President. The speeches they heard were short and fierce, the slogans they chanted had been learnt by heart. "Viva la revolucion," they shouted. "Viva Fidel! Our country or death. We will overcome."

People have been predicting the demise of Cuba's 79-year-old leader for almost the entirety of his near half-century in power, a rule that has been condemned by critics for its brutality to his opponents but celebrated by his supporters for its defiance of the US. But yesterday morning the question of Cuba's political future took on great uncertainty as the country awoke to the news that their leader had undergone intestinal surgery and - for the first time in those 47 years of exercising total power - temporarily ceded control to his brother, Raul.

"We are here to wish him well for his health," said Rafael Ceruto, one of the speakers who addressed the crowd. "At the moment everything is normal." Like the others who spoke in front of a statute of Jose Marti, a revolutionary hero from the 19th century, Mr Ceruto insisted that the President's surgery was not a serious setback and that he would be recuperating for a few weeks. This too, was the opinion of most Cubans, who have grown up with stories of their leader's extraordinary vitality. Such expressions of solidarity are to be expected in Havana, where living with police surveillance is a way of life and dissident political expression can lead to a jail sentence.

Likewise this was the official narrative, as reported on the front page of the state-run newspaper, Granma, which carried a proclamation purportedly from the President, which said he had over-exerted himself travelling to a summit in Argentina.

by Fran on Tue Aug 1st, 2006 at 11:34:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
BBC: Profile: Raul Castro

Raul Castro, for nearly half a century Cuba's second-in-command, is now in the top post.
His older brother, the long-time Cuban leader Fidel Castro, has announced he is - temporarily at least - handing over the leadership as he undergoes gastro-intestinal surgery.

Raul, now 75, has always lurked in his brother's shadow - a head shorter than Fidel, and without his brother's charisma or oratorical verve.

As head of Cuba's armed forces, Raul has played a central role in Cuba's recent history, and yet opinion is divided over the role he might play as Cuban leader.
Raul was officially designated Fidel's successor at a Communist Party congress in October 1997, when Fidel said: "Raul is younger than I, more energetic than I. He can count on much more time."

But the two have worked together since the 1950s, when they plotted the Cuban Revolution.

Raul can claim an earlier commitment to socialism than his brother, whose early defining political characteristic was nationalism.

by Fran on Tue Aug 1st, 2006 at 11:35:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Middle East
by Fran on Tue Aug 1st, 2006 at 11:39:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Guardian/Monbiot: The king of fairyland will never grasp the realities of the Middle East - A US leader in his second term should have the power to rein in Israel. But George Bush is no ordinary president  

Of all the curious things that have been written about Israel's assault on Lebanon, surely the oddest is contained in Paddy Ashdown's article on these pages last Saturday. "There is only one solution to this crisis, and it is the same solution we have to find in Iraq: to go for a wider Middle East settlement and to do it urgently. The US cannot do this. But Europe can."

The US cannot do this? What on earth does he mean? At first sight his contention seems plain wrong. While Israel intends to sustain its occupation of Palestinian territory, a wider settlement is impossible. It surely follows that the country that has the greatest potential leverage over Israel is the country with the greatest power to broker peace. Israel's foreign policy and military strategy is dependent on the approval of the United States.

....
Many of these weapons have been used to kill Palestinian civilians and are being used in Lebanon today. The US arms export control act states that "no defence article or defence service shall be sold or leased by the United States government" unless its provision "will strengthen the security of the United States and promote world peace". Weapons may be sold "to friendly countries solely for internal security, for legitimate self-defence [or for] maintaining or restoring international peace and security".
By giving these weapons to Israel, the US government is, in effect, stating that all its military actions are being pursued in the cause of legitimate self-defence, American interests and world peace. The US also becomes morally complicit in Israel's murder of civilians. The diplomatic cover this provides is indispensable.

Since 1972 the US has used its veto in the UN security council on 40 occasions to prevent the passage of resolutions that sought either to defend the rights of the Palestinians or to condemn the excesses of Israel's government. This is a greater number of vetoes than all the other permanent members have deployed in the same period. The most recent instance, on July 13, was the squashing of a motion condemning both the Israeli assault on Gaza and the firing of rockets and abduction of an Israeli soldier by Palestinian groups. Over the past few days, the United States, supported by Britain, has blocked all international attempts to introduce an immediate ceasefire, giving Israel the clear impression that it has a mandate to continue its assault on Lebanon.

by Fran on Tue Aug 1st, 2006 at 11:40:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
SyiaComment: What Role Can Syria Play in Lebanon?

Joshua Landis Interviewed by John Dagge
Saturday, July 29, 2006

What role does Syria have to play in the resolution of this conflict?

Syria has a big role to play. Trying to shut it out of any agreement will only guarantee that future cease-fires are temporary and fragile.

The Lebanese root cause of this problem is that the Shi'ites are terribly under-represented in parliament. They have been kept at the bottom of the Lebanese political heap despite being the largest sectarian community in Lebanon. They accepted this position in the 1989 Taif Accords, largely because Syria allowed them to keep their weapons. Since Syria left Lebanon in 2005 the other Lebanese communities - Sunnis, Druze, and Christian - have been demanding that Hezbollah give up its military weapons. At the same time, they have refused to allow the Shiites their proper constitutional role in government. They can't have it both ways. If a deal to disarm Hizbullah is to be made in Lebanon, the Shi'ites, who represent 40 per cent of the population, will have to get close to 40 percent representation in parliament. This is going to be a major headache.

America professes that it wants a democratic solution to the Middle East, but it is refusing to promote true democracy in Lebanon. This is an analogy to the Hamas problem in Palestine and it is one of the reasons why Hezbollah and Hamas find themselves on the same side and why Arabs throughout the Middle East are rooting for them. So long as there is no solution to this fundamental injustice, there will be no peace in the Middle East. American and Israeli military might is no replacement for equity, justice and democracy.

The way Hezbollah has justified maintaining its arms is by focusing on its resistance role. If you want to eliminate that role of resistance, Hezbollah is going to have to be brought into the political center of Lebanon's government so it becomes an established power, not an outsider throwing stones at a government dominated by others.

Syria helped broker the Taif accord, along with Saudi Arabia and America. The Americans were interested in maintaining Christian power in Lebanon, which they succeeded in doing by making sure that the Christian seats in the Lebanese parliament were not reduced below 50 per cent even though they constitute roughly 40% of the Lebanese population. The Saudis were interested in maintaining Sunni power in Lebanon which they succeeded in doing by making the Sunnis the most over-represented community in Lebanon - they were allotted the same number of seats as the Shi'ites even though the Sunnis are half as numerous. So in effect, a Sunni Lebanese is worth two Shi'a Lebanese in political terms. The Syrians went along with the deal because they wanted to look like good actors and, most importantly, because they were going to disarm the Sunnis and Christians and allow the Shi'ites to maintain their military weapons to act as a resistance to Israel. This allows Syria to maintain pressure on Israel to give back the Golan Heights.

by Fran on Tue Aug 1st, 2006 at 11:41:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Asia Times: Ready for the next fight
SOUTH LEBANON - "The resistance [Hezbollah] protects the country, but the country is the victim of the resistance." So read Arabic-language pamphlets dropped by air all over south Lebanon.
"The purpose behind the message is to ask people to leave southern Lebanon so that Israel and Hezbollah can be left to fight face-to-face against each other," Abbas Hussain told Asia Times Online. Members of his family were among the more than 50 killed in an Israeli air strike on the town of Qana on Sunday.

"A few days before the bombing, flyers were dropped which clearly warned the people to leave Qana at once, otherwise they would be victims," Abbas said. Tragically, though, many people either did not heed the warning or did not have the time or means
 to leave.

Israel declared a 48-hour cessation of aerial strikes (only partially followed) as a result of widespread international condemnation of the Qana debacle, and people have now taken the opportunity to flee to safer areas.

Roads across the south are clogged with traffic as long lines of refugees leave southern towns.

"I have been operating this hospital for many years and have provided aid to the victims of Israeli raids since the mid-1990s, but the way Israel came up with the latest attacks, people now have to leave their places at all costs," Dr Jawad Mahmood Najam told Asia Times Online. Najam is a surgeon and qualified from a university of Egypt. He runs the 80-bed Najam Hospital near Qana.

by Fran on Tue Aug 1st, 2006 at 11:43:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Guardian: Israel ready for massive invasion  

· Special forces target Hizbullah official as troops plan push in south
· Deadlock at UN and EU

Israeli special forces were last night engaged deep within Lebanon as the army geared up for an expected major ground invasion. Troops were involved in fierce clashes and artillery pounded targets across southern Lebanon. The military also called in air strikes despite a previous commitment to a "partial" halt in air bombardments.

Israeli commanders said that six brigades - several thousand soldiers - were now deployed inside Lebanon. At least 15,000 reserve troops, called up late last week, would be ready for combat from today, army sources said.

Last night Israeli commandos were reported to be in action against Hizbullah fighters 40 miles across the Lebanese border in the Beka'a valley, after landing by helicopter. Witnesses reported gunfire around a hospital to the west of the town of Baalbek, a Hizbullah stronghold.

According to the Lebanese army, the target of the raid was Sheikh Mohammed Yazbek, a member of the Hizbullah High Council, and representative in Lebanon of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was reported to have been at the hospital earlier in the day.

The operation began with at least five rapid air strikes three hours before the end of Israel's self-imposed two-day pause in air attacks.

by Fran on Tue Aug 1st, 2006 at 11:45:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Juan Cole, after reviewing news on that commando attack, had this to say:

For all the cheerleading in the Western press about a "daring" raid into Baalbak, the evidence is that the Israelis failed to nab their real target, had to content themselves with very low-level captives, rampaged around damaging a hospital and killing 7 civilians, along with 10 civilians in a nearby village, and left with no accomplishment worth mentioning.


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 03:40:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Is "Western" really a synonimous of "Anglo-saxon"? It's beginning to look that way.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 03:43:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Additionally to all that's happening, we're witnessing hundreds if not thousands of visa violations.
by Alex in Toulouse on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 05:40:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
India Times: Agenda for Lebanon

For two Israeli generations, Lebanon is the mythological ex, the beautiful and rich neighbour with whom relations once grew from cold to cordial and then from warm to intimate, only to ultimately collapse amid recrimination, loss and trauma.

Israel's Lebanese illusions go back to the late 1950s, when David Ben-Gurion concluded that the Jewish state must court all those in the broader Middle East who do not naturally fall in the Arab-Muslim fold.

Consequently, Israel developed special ties with Christian Ethiopia and non-Arab Iran and Turkey, and sought ties with a slew of minorities.

While some of this vision was far-fetched, warm relations indeed emerged in those years with the Shah's Iran, Haile Selassie's Ethiopia, and Iraq's Kurdish rebels. Yet all these paled in comparison with Israel's Lebanese experience.

In typically Middle Eastern unpredictability, even Israel's peace pact with Egypt did not alter its need in new alliances, since the rest of the Arab world rejected that deal while Iran was lost at the time to Islamism and Ethiopia to communism.

by Fran on Tue Aug 1st, 2006 at 11:54:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ben-Gurion, supposed moderate to the Revisionsists' extremism... From a guest commentary by Kenneth Brown at Juan Cole:

As a visiting American student in Jerusalem in 1956, I became an inadvertent witness to some aspects of the ignominious tripartite invasion of Egypt and its aftermath in Israel...

Shortly after the end of hostilities, I recall attending a massive rally in Jerusalem's Zion Square where Prime Minister Ben Gurion, surrounded by his generals, boasted of the victory against Nasserism and promised that Israel would never retreat from the Sinai Peninsula it had conquered. He was joyously acclaimed by the crowd with the exception of a few intrepid individuals who yelled out their opposition to the war; and for this they were roundly beaten. There have always been such voices in Israel and they have usually paid dearly for resisting an ideology of `might is right'.

Today's war in Lebanon is the sixth fought by Israel against its Arab enemies in less than sixty years, not counting its military suppression of the two Palestinian intifadahs. All of these have been carried out in the name of `defense' and `security', with words like `inevitability', `justice' and `survival' thrown in for good measure.

Israel invariably portrays itself as having no choice, as having been attacked and responding accordingly.

Ben Gurion long ago argued that Israel had to keep its enemies at bay by hitting them regularly. "Peace is not our principal interest", he said. He never believed that Israel could live at peace with the Arabs. His successors have remained faithful to this view. "We are a European nation: we have no affinity with the Arabs", was how Barak put it.


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 03:49:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How nice... Cast Lebanon as a beautiful woman, and Israel as the stranged lover who rapes and murders her because she can't have it. What's wrong with the media?

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 04:52:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I mean he can't have her.

I can't think striaght, I need a vacation.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 04:53:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Independent: How Israel's bombing turned Hizbollah leader into a symbol of Muslim pride

A year ago he seemed a rebel without a cause. Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hizbollah, was an important figure in Lebanon but seemed destined to remain on the sidelines of Middle East politics. He was the most important leader of the 1.4 million-strong Shia community in Lebanon and nobody doubted the efficiency of Hizbollah as a paramilitary organisation. He was intelligent, charismatic and experienced but he seemed to have reached the peak of his influence.

Nasrallah's great moment had apparently come and gone in May 2000 when Israel had unilaterally withdrawn its troops from southern Lebanon after years of harassment by Hizbollah guerrillas. He returned in triumph to reconquered Lebanese territory and, if the military victory over Israel was small in scale, it was still an accomplishment not enjoyed by many Arab leaders over the past half century. But the departure of the Israelis from Lebanon also robbed Hizbollah of its raison d'être and excuse for forming a state within a state. No doubt its leader, Nasrallah, would remain a power within Lebanon but it seemed increasingly unlikely that he would be anything more.

It was Israel that decided otherwise. By launching a massive military campaign in retaliation for the kidnapping of two of its soldiers on 12 July it made Nasrallah into a symbol of resistance to Israel in the Muslim world. Arabs conscious of their own leaders' inertia, corruption and incompetence hailed the resolution of Hizbollah's fighters. Nasrallah's blend of nationalism and religion was shown to be as potent in Lebanon as it had been against the Americans in Iraq.

His spokesmen admitted that Hizbollah had miscalculated the ferocity of the Israeli response to the kidnapping, but then few in the world forecast that Israel would play so directly to Hizbollah's strengths as a guerrilla organisation capable of surviving an Israeli military attack. Nor had it seemed likely that Israel, after extricating with such difficulty from the Lebanese morass after 18 years, would plunge back into it with such enthusiasm.

by Fran on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 12:00:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How this all helps fundamentalism, another commentary from Angry Arab:

The future trends in Lebanese politics are not going to be good. Secular and leftist groups and parties will be increasingly marginalized. Tomorrow, a new Islamic fundamentalist front will be founded in Lebanon. The Islamic Action Front will be announced by its founder, Islamic fundamentalist thinker, Fathi Yakan, who broke with Al-Jama`ah Al-Islamiyyah in the wake of Hariri's assassination. The Sunni front will comprise many radical Sunni fundamentalist groups and will declare its support for Hizbullah. I think that Sunni and Shi`ite politics in Lebanon will become more fundamentalist out of this, not less. This new front will weaken the stance of Al-Jama`ah Al-Islamiyyah which has clearly distanced itself from Hariri Inc since the Isareli war started. It is likely that Hariri Inc may try to cultivate and finance some of the kooky Bin Ladenite groups in order to prop up their "Islamist credentials." They have done that in the past.


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 03:42:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Mission accomplished: an Arab attempt at secular democracy destroyed so Israel can keep its status as the only democracy in the Middle East.  

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 03:45:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's the most believable reason for Israel actions in Lebanon I have read so far.

The lebanese political system seems prone to fall for this, as it is based on religion quota and quota are outdated against population, current majority should be on the Islam side but political representation is not.

See wikipedia here and here

by Laurent GUERBY on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 07:00:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I feel this is very important. Juan Cole reports (channelling Mercury News) that one of the Grand Ayatollahs in Najaf/Iraq, Pakistani-born Bashir Najafi, is distancing himself from the 'government' of Iraq:

' "The government formed after the fall of the regime hasn't been able to do anything, just make many promises. And people are fed up with the promises," said Sheik Bashir al Najafi, one of the top four Shiite leaders and one of several who suggested there could be a revolt. "One day we will not be able to stop a popular revolution." '


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 03:54:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Independent: Olmert: World force must be in place before ceasefire (02 August 2006)
Ehud Olmert said today that Israel's three-week-old offensive in Lebanon will stop only once a robust international peacekeeping force is in place in southern Lebanon.
Er... Ehud, that is just not going to happen. Unless you're talking about a British/German/Dutch/Czech contingent, of course.
In an interview in his Jerusalem office, Israel's Prime Minister also said the release of two Israeli soldiers captured by Lebanon's Hezbollah guerrillas must be unconditional - signalling Israel does not favour a prisoner swap.
Unconditional surrender. Yeah. Have a couple of nukes to spare? Danny boy Halutz is going to need them.
He also predicted that the outcome of the Lebanon fighting will create "new momentum" for Israel's plan to separate from the Palestinians by withdrawing from much of the West Bank.
Be careful what you wish for, because you might get it.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 05:51:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We'll give you a peace to keep after you get here to keep it? WTF? Is this guy some sort of misplaced comedian?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 05:52:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
These people just might fly Israel into the ground.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 05:54:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Or a very tall building.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 07:53:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This would be hilarous if it were not so sad.

DoDo has been talking about the possibility that Hezbollah and Israel were engaged in a "bloody climbdown" and citing as evidence the fact that Hezbollah rocket attacks had died off recently. Well, the idiot Olmert went and claimed that the fact that fewer rockets were being launched by Hezbollah was evidence that Israel had "totally destroyed Hezbollah's infrastructure" and forced all the population that supports it to flee. Hezbollah then responded with a volley of rockets which hit 70 Km south of the border, as far as the West Bank. (El Pais in Spanish: babelfish away, I can't seem to find an equivalent English-language story).

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 08:43:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Here.

In Jerusalem, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told Reuters he wanted the international force to be mandated to enforce a U.N. resolution that calls for Hizbollah to be disarmed, adding that Israel had already destroyed much of the group's military power.

Soon after he spoke, one of more than 150 rockets launched by Hizbollah on Wednesday landed just inside the West Bank after flying further than any fired at Israel in the past three weeks.

Hizbollah said it had hit the Israeli town of Beit Shean, almost 70 km (45 miles) from the border, with "Khaibar 1" rockets to avenge Israeli attacks on civilians in Lebanon.

The Hizbollah salvo, which killed one person in the northern city of Nahariya, followed a two-day lull in such attacks.

I think the salvo was more an answer to the large-scale ground assault and the bombing of the Baalbeck hospital than just rhetoric -- as I reported yesterday, that rhetoric was already used.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 09:09:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
THIS AND THAT
by Fran on Tue Aug 1st, 2006 at 11:30:05 PM EST
Spiegel Online: THE MAPPING REVOLUTION - How Google Earth Is Changing Science

Biologists, epidemiologists and disaster control experts are discovering Google Earth as a powerful tool in their work. The success of the digital globe has reawakened interest in computer mapping models.

Erik Born constantly keeps tabs on the whereabouts of his walruses no matter what part of the Arctic Sea they might decide to visit on a given day. Just off Greenland's ice-bound coast last spring, the Danish biologists managed to embed tiny tracking sensors in the animals' blubber. Now, he can follow his subjects through the four seasons, wherever they might migrate.
Born doesn't even have to leave his own office. Instead, Google Earth's digital globe rotates on his computer monitor. A position marker on the screen identifies the position of each walrus.

Google Earth wasn't really intended for scientists. The Google search engine's extraordinary globe, which is made up of hundreds of thousands of satellite photos and aerial images, was initially meant as a game for virtual hobby pilots. Users discovered that it was fun to fly over their own homes, swing up into space and, within seconds, swoop back down into the depths of the Grand Canyon. But now the scientific community is discovering how useful the software is for their own work.

With a single keystroke, biologist Born superimposes colored maps over the Arctic. The maps show him where the ice sheet is getting thinner and the direction in which the pieces of floating ice on which walruses like to catch a ride are drifting. All of the ice data, which comes from satellites and measuring buoys, is available on the Internet. By loading the data into the program, Born can detect how global warming is affecting the migratory behavior of his giant walruses.

by Fran on Tue Aug 1st, 2006 at 11:32:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
nzherald: Head-butt song tops French charts

PARIS - Three weeks after France's World Cup final soccer defeat, the song inspired by captain Zinedine Zidane's fateful head-butt on Italy defender Marco Materazzi has hit number one in the nation's singles chart.

"As of today, it's number one in the French charts. It has had an exceptional start, better than we could ever have hoped for," said Thierry Chassagne, president of Warner Music France, which distributes the song.

"Coup de Boule", the French for "head-butt", was written by the three associates of Plage Records, a small label specialising in jingles and sound effects, the day after France's July 9 defeat in Berlin.

Zidane, one of the finest footballers of his generation, was sent off for head-butting Materazzi after exchanging comments with the Italian defender in extra time with the score at 1-1. Italy won the final after a penalty shoot-out.

The label's founders, brothers Emmanuel and Sebastien Lipszyc, and composer Franck Lascombes, penned the catchy reggae-style song and its chorus "Zidane, il a tape" ("Zidane, the hit man"), as a cure for their post-defeat blues.

Initially emailed to about 50 friends, the song quickly invaded the Web, with French radio SkyRock putting it on its play-list and ringtone sellers and music labels fighting for the rights.

by Fran on Tue Aug 1st, 2006 at 11:50:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Guardian: Staff suspected over missing Hermitage treasures

Precious silver and enamelware at St Petersburg's Hermitage Museum worth nearly £2.7m has disappeared and probably been stolen with the connivance of staff, its director confirmed yesterday.

Some 221 icons, religious objects and pieces of jewellery studded with precious stones were found missing after a stocktake was completed at the end of last month. "There is no doubt this could not have happened without the participation of museum staff," the director, Mikhail Piotrovsky, said yesterday at the museum, once home to Russia's tsars. "It is a stab in the back of the Hermitage, a stab in the back of all museums."

Mr Piotrovsky said the items had not been insured because they were in storage; only exhibited artworks at the Hermitage are insured.

Prosecutors have opened a criminal case but police say there remains a possibility the items, dating from the 15th to 18th centuries, had gone missing internally as a result of the museum's chaotic catologuing, and might yet be recovered.

The Hermitage has about 3m items in its collection; more than 90% are in storage at any one time. Its corridors, storerooms and exhibition halls form a giant labyrinth, which stretches along the banks of the river Neva in the heart of the former imperial capital.

The curator in charge of most of the collection where the theft occurred died suddenly at her workplace when the inventory check began in October. The museum did not identify her or say how she died.

by Fran on Tue Aug 1st, 2006 at 11:57:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Halving Half Lives
An anonymous reader writes "PhysicsWeb is reporting that German scientists may have found a way to significantly reduce the radioactive decay time of nuclear waste. This could render the waste harmless in just tens of years and make disposal much less difficult as opposed to current standards. From the article: 'Their proposed technique - which involves slashing the half-life of an alpha emitter by embedding it in a metal and cooling the metal to a few degrees kelvin - could therefore avoid the need to bury nuclear waste in deep repositories, a hugely expensive and politically difficult process. But other researchers are skeptical and believe that the technique contradicts well-established theory as well as experiment.'"

[Slashdot]

Hmmm?

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 04:12:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
slashing the half-life of an alpha emitter by embedding it in a metal and cooling the metal to a few degrees kelvin

Sounds somewhat energy intensive...

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 06:02:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, I'd just love to see the theory behind this one.

No doubt Red Mercury will raise its head again.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 06:06:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There seems to be no theory, and if the experimental results can be duplicated there is a Nobel Prize in there waiting for Claus Rolfs and whoever comes up with a theory.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 06:14:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, you mean it's Cold Fusion ? One single experiment without a supporting theory.

ho hum.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 06:23:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Except that this one has been published in a peer reviewed journal instead of calling a press conference first.

I am willing to entertain the possibility that single radioactive aroms inside a supercooled metal behave differently from the single atom in vacuum, or from the pure radioactive metal itself cooled. Stranger things happen that "defy standard solid state physics", like high-temperature superconductivity, or the "electron gas" inside a conductor behaving like charge carriers with 1/3 of the electron charge.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 06:30:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Okay, on this topic you're definitely in a much better position to judge than me.

Be interesting to see how it pans out.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 06:37:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
My first impulse was to discount it because "you can't change the half-life of nuclear decay" as the nucleus is almost perfectly shielded from the outside world by its electron shell. But inside a supercooled metal electrons behave in weird ways.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 07:17:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Any idea of the order of magnitude of energy required to supercool that much radioactive material?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 07:22:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It takes 1 calorie (~4J) to increase the temperature of gram of water by 1 degree, and we're talking cooling by 300 degrees. And cooling is a more inefficient process than heating, thermodynamically speaking. So we're talking of the order of 1 Gigajoule per tonne. A barrel of oil equivalent is 6 GJ, for comparison.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 07:30:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
PhysicsWeb: A cool solution to waste disposal (31 July 2006)
A group of physicists in Germany claims to have discovered a way of speeding up radioactive decay that could render nuclear waste harmless on timescales of just a few tens of years. Their proposed technique - which involves slashing the half-life of an alpha emitter by embedding it in a metal and cooling the metal to a few degrees kelvin - could therefore avoid the need to bury nuclear waste in deep repositories, a hugely expensive and politically difficult process. But other researchers are sceptical and believe that the technique contradicts well-established theory as well as experiment.

The leader of the German-based group, Claus Rolfs of Ruhr University in Bochum, is an astrophysicist and made the discovery about alpha decay after replicating the fusion reactions that take place in the centre of stars. Using the university's particle accelerator he fired protons and deuterons (nuclei containing a proton and a neutron) at various light nuclei. He noticed that the rate of fusion reactions was significantly greater when the nuclei were encased in metals than when they were inserted into insulators. He also observed that the effect is enhanced at lower temperatures (J. Phys. G: Nucl. Part. Phys. 32 489).

...

But Rolfs realized that the reverse reaction might also occur and that free electrons could enhance the ejection of positively charged particles from a nucleus. This would reduce the half-lives of α-decay or β+-decay, and increase half-lives for processes involving electrons (which are repelled by the free electrons within the metal), i.e. β--decay and electron capture.

The group has investigated this hypothesis by embedding a number of radioactive nuclei inside metals and then cooling the metal to a few degrees kelvin. As expected, they observed a longer half-life for the electron capture of beryllium-7 and shorter half-lives for β+-decay in sodium-22 (Eur. Phys. J. A 28 251) and α-decay in polonium-210. They are now investigating the α-decay of radium-226, a hazardous component of spent nuclear fuel with a half-life of 1600 years. Rolfs calculates that this half-life could be reduced to as little as a year and at the very least to 100 years, and believes that the half-lives of all other hazardous alpha emitters within nuclear waste could be shortened by similar amounts.

...

Meanwhile, Hubert Flocard, director of the CSNSM nuclear-physics lab near Paris, believes that Rolfs' model contradicts standard solid-state physics, although he admits that he cannot explain the group's data himself. Rolfs concedes that he needs a more sophisticated theory, but stands by his results. "Nature decides what is right," he says.

Hmmmm...

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 06:12:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Billmon: A "Bad" Sign (August 1, 2006)
I used to argue that progressives in this country had no choice but to support the Democrats -- even pathetic frauds like Howard Dean and inept Thurston Howell III clones like John Kerry. I used to quote Frederick Douglas's despairing comment about what the Republican Party of his day represented for African Americans: the rock; all else is the sea.

Maybe that was true, once. But I've finally come to realize that in modern-day America there is no rock -- just a vast, featureless expanse of reactionary ocean, like something from the set of Waterworld, except without a gilled Kevin Costner.

...

For the rest of us, and for whatever is left of this country's soul, it doesn't really matter. We've already lost.



Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 05:32:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The US Left Blogostan's most prominent pessimist finally saw the light. No I am not happy.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 06:17:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, this is the counsel of despair. The whatever-we-do-we-lose playbook. This is voting for Nader because there is no difference between Gore and Bush.

Bullshit !!! Double-bullshit !!!

It's the O-word. O-V-E-R-S-I-G-H-T . They get to be in charge of all the committees, they get to examine all the records, they get to vote against stuff and win.

And its not just about Congressional oversight of the President. Billmon is correct that the Dems have hardly set the world alight with their quisling tactics, but if Lieberman goes down they know that the voters will have called time on their cosy little lifestyle and will be breathing down their necks as well. It'll be "hit the ball out of the park or get the hell out of the club".

Billmon remains a compulsory read, but on this one he's plain flat wrong.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 06:50:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Stop blaming Nader for Gore's inability to win the election decisively.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 06:56:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not blaming Nader. I'm blaming the mindset that made people see Bush/Gore as no different from each other. A counsel of despair.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 07:01:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It depends what issues you care about. On Iraq and the War on Terra, Kerry was just like Bush in 2004. The Democrats haven't stopped giving people cause for despair for the last 5 years. And Gore didn't lose because of a "despair" mindset. He was the incumbent! The Democrats were hardly feeling desperate back then.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 07:08:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
that's NOT what I mean at all !!

I don't care what issue you talk about, the tenor of a democrat policy will not be as bad as that of a republican. If Gore or Kerry had won, the US would not be looking at the domestic and international disasters it currently faces.

They might have been just as wrong in their intent, but the sum total would not have been the threat to civilisation that Cheney/bush are.

That's why the difference between them is plain as day and that's why the counsel of despair that says there wasn't a fag paper between them is Bullshit !!!

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 07:45:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If Gore or Kerry had won, the US would not be looking at the domestic and international disasters it currently faces.

Could be true about Gore (whom I like despite all), but I don't see how that is true about Kerry. As Migeru said, he was as bad about Iraq as Bush (he even wanted more troops!), and I finally lost all faith in him when he tried to outdo Bush in being pro-Israel, which implies he wouldn't have been any better on Lebanon.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 07:54:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You and Mig are out of your fucking minds if you think Kerry would've been as bad as Bush in Iraq and the war on terror.  I mean, honestly!  Where the fuck do you get that?

Kerry was for PEACE.  Do you think for an instant he would've signed on to the neocon agenda of permanent war and destabalizing the middle east?  Kerry refused to tie himself into an exact plan -- during the campaign -- to say in a detailed way how he would fix the Republican's massive fuckups.  Do you blame him?  He would've been even more savaged in the press.  He made clear over and over that he was for peace and for stopping the war in whatever way that could be managed when he took office.

He said to establish any peaceful outcome, more troops were needed -- INTERNATIONAL ones!  He wanted to bring the world community together.  He was criticizing the neocon tactic of going in alone with few troops and many bombs.  He was saying that no peaceful outcome could come of that -- he was explaining how they'd fucked up.  He wanted to end the war and he did not want the permanent bases in Iraq.

Y'know, I have plenty of complaints about plenty of politicians, including Democrats, but this fucking bullshit that they're all exactly the same is just that -- fucking bullshit.  And to anyone reading who can vote here, here's a news flash -- if you vote for a third party in a national election of a nation with a two-party system, then you are not participating.

Maybe we can eventually make language a complete impediment to understanding. -Hobbes

by Izzy (izzy at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 01:16:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Okay, I've calmed down a bit and am sorry for the outburst.  I'm standing by my points, but I apologize for the cussing and and asking if you're out of your minds, etc.

Maybe we can eventually make language a complete impediment to understanding. -Hobbes
by Izzy (izzy at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 02:01:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What outburst? I thought it was standard use for curse words to pose as fucking interjections in American. Samuel El Jacksono and John Travolti do it all the time in Pulp Fiction.
by Alex in Toulouse on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 02:07:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think you're totally wrong about Kerry, and you should apologize for that (just kidding!) but never apologize for your passion.  It's an asset.

Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. -Voltaire
by p------- on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 02:17:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
  1. "I am John Kerry and I am reporting for duty" (ovation) [use of militaristic patriotism, the idea that the President is the Commander in Chief of all Americans, and not just of the armed forces, that is, all Americans are ultimately soldiers, and they loves it, my preciousss]
  2. I don't remember Kerry's 40,000 additional troops for Iraq to be "international".
  3. Kerry said that, even if he had known in 2002 what he knew in 2004, he would have still voted for the Iraq invasion.
  4. The only Democratic candidate with a peace platform was Kucinich. Kerry and the DLC did all they could to exclude peaceniks from the Democratic Convention, and rejected Kucinich's peace plank, with no equivalent on the Democratic platform.
  5. Kerry was Anybody But Bush.
  6. Most speeches at the Democratic Convention did not question the legitimacy of the US occupation of Iraq, and even adopted the upbeat Bushista message that "schools and hospitals are being built in Iraq", in order to give more force to the message that "they are being closed in the US".

And so on...

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 03:06:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
  1.  You are not going to change the entire culture in a campaign.  You change the culture from the bottom up in conjunction with a position of leadership -- not in a national campaign.  Ignoring the realities did not get Kucinich very far.

  2.  Kerry talked about adding more troops to establish peace and stability.  He mentioned an amount he thought would be needed.  He did more than talk about bringing in international troops -- he had talks with France and other countries about it.  Again -- they guy is not known for soundbites and he SAID all of this talk was for ending the war and establishing peace.  So are you going to ignore what he said based on some other things he said taken out of context?

  3.  Because his position is that what they voted for was not what Bush used it for.  In other words, he was saying Bushes actions were illegal.

  4.  Again, you're using a campaign tactic to refute what they were all saying was the platform.  I agree with you it was not a good tactic, but it does not equate them as being the same as the Republicans.

  5.  Kerry was not anybody but Bush.  He's a principled politician with a good record.  You're repeating right-wing talking points.  Kerry was the only politician -- American OR European, so far as I know -- to take on the people behind Iran-contra.  I had every faith he would clear those people out of government when he was in office.

  6.  Again, you're using... not just campaign slogans, but campaign OMISSIONS as evidence of something that doesn't exist.  How many times did Kerry say the Iraq war was wrong and he wanted it to end?  Repeatedly.  Over and over and over.

If you ever listened to Kerry, you wouldn't believe the right-wing talking points on what you think he might have been getting at.  He stated clearly that the Iraq war was wrong, that he wanted it to end with the least harm to the Iraqi people, that he did not want permanent bases there, and that he was in talks with people in the International community to come up with the best way to end it without more bloodshed.  What part of that do you disagree with?  Or are you choosing to ignore that based on the wording of some soundbites that were spread far and wide?

His domestic policies were also excellent.  The press did a hatchet job on him and the fact that so many people on the left believe it only shows how effective the propaganda is.  But, you know what?  Even if you do believe all of the propaganda about Kerry, let's say you think he'd be Clintonesque -- do you really think that's just the same as or as bad as the bloodthirsty psychopaths in charge now?  Because I find that both ignorant and offensive.

Maybe we can eventually make language a complete impediment to understanding. -Hobbes

by Izzy (izzy at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 03:39:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And to anyone reading who can vote here, here's a news flash -- if you vote for a third party in a national election of a nation with a two-party system, then you are not participating.

How about "if you vote for an oposition party in a de-facto one-party system, then you are not participating"?

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 04:23:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How about "if you vote for an oposition party in a de-facto one-party system, then you are not participating"?

No difference.

Alito = Ginsburg

rasing taxes on the rich = lowering taxes for the rich

pro-choice = pro-life

raising the minimum wage = letting inflation erode it

higher deficits = lower deficits

default love of the stick or nothing in foreign affairs =  carrot and stick

torture = not torture

Sorry Mig, but the idea that there was no difference between Kerry and Bush (or Gore and Bush) makes no more sense than saying that Jospin = Chirac or Prodi = Berlusconi. In fact, considering the sheer awfulness of the Bush admin voting for a third party is even worse than the first round fiasco in France. It's more like refusing to vote for Chirac in the second round if he had been in a close race with Le Pen. If that had been the situation and Le Pen had won I'd have been extremely pissed off at any lefties who had acted that way. And Kerry is a hell of a lot better than Chirac.

It's one thing to disagree with Kerry from the left, quite another to insist that there's no difference between the current center/center-left incarnation of the Democrats and the right/extreme right Republicans.  If you live in a solid red or solid blue state then voting for a left wing third party in the presidential elections is an understandable protest vote (though the national margin matters for PR purposes) but doing so in a swing state is no different from a vote for Bush and everything he represents.

by MarekNYC on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 04:51:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's an interesting list of differences. Too bad so many Democratic Senators vote with the Republicans. I didn't see a lot of opposition ot Alito, or to tax cuts, or to the Patriot act, or to the Iraq war and occupation...

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 04:57:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's an interesting list of differences. Too bad so many Democratic Senators vote with the Republicans. I didn't see a lot of opposition ot Alito, or to tax cuts, or to the Patriot act, or to the Iraq war and occupation...

Really? Care to look at the internal breakdown of the votes among Dems vs. Repubs?  Clinton, a DLC Dem, nominated Ginsburg and Breyer, not Scalia clones. He raised taxes on the rich while massively lowering them on the poor through the EITC (a negative income tax for poor people with jobs). And Kerry was to the left of Clinton. He did vote for the Iraq war - mix of cowardice and political expediency IMO, but a Dem president never would have initiated that mess. As for the occupation there aren't any good solutions, just bad and worse.

by MarekNYC on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 05:17:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Care to look at the internal breakdown of the votes among Dems vs. Repubs?

Sure, the Patriot Act was renewed on March 2, 2006 with a vote of 89 to 11 in the Senate and on March 7 280 to 138 in the House. That is absolutely pathetic. It is not much worse than when it passed originally, 98-1 in the Senate. The Democrats declined to filibuster either Alito or Roberts, even when they would have been able to.

The good things that Clinton got past a Republican Congress are not an excuse for the current crop of Democrats failing to oppose atrocious Bush policies more forcefully.

And Kerry was to the left of Clinton.

That must be why he felt he had to try and appear to the right of Bush in order to capture the swing voters.

Let me know when the Democrats remember they need to mobilize their base.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 05:29:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think there's a difference between ideology and fear. At the time the Dems were convinced that the pro-war narrative had actually worked and they were working to an agenda set by the NeoCons.

To the extent that they were playing defensively, the narrative actually had worked. The assessment was - rightly or wrongly - that questioning the flood of flag-waving zombie-patriotism that happened after 9/11 would have been political suicide.  

It's impossible to say what Kerry would have done if he'd been given the preznitential suite at Penn Ave. But I'd be hugely surprised if the push towards decreased civil liberties, the torture and rhetoric at Abu Grahib and Gitmo, the disaster that was Katrina, would all have unfolded in the same way.

The Dems may be spineless, but currently they lack the stench of psychotic evil that hangs over the Bush White House. In power they'll doubtless be more centrist than progressive, but even that's an improvement on far-right drooling suicidal idiocy.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 06:04:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think you're right, but only marginally. If you're a poor American the Democrats are a bit of an improvement. If you're a poor Arab it's still going to be American bombs that kill your children.

In the end of the day the US system is so broken that it will take a decade or two to fix - a complete overhaul of electoral rules and both the parties and the universe of political discourse is needed. Voting for Democrats rather than Republicans is an improvement, if only a very small step.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 04:58:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What I DO mean is that regeneration of American politics can only come after progressives desert the Democratic party and let it crumble under its own weight as the empty shell that it is. Progressive Democrat incumbents could run grass-root campaigns as independents and retain their seats. As for the rest, let the progressive voters vote for whoever they damn well please and see where the chips fall.

The Republicans are going to steal the midterm elections, and the Democrats still won't know what hit them.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 10:27:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
As for the rest, let the progressive voters vote for whoever they damn well please and see where the chips fall.

Easy for you to say. You're safely ensconced in the EU and not in the way of any of that flying shrapnel. Those of us living here, and for that matter people in other places who might get caught up in Republican disasters don't have that luxury.  

by MarekNYC on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 05:08:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I am "safely ensconced in the EU" because I ran out and way from the US as soon as practicable. And I have had my home town and the town I now live in bombed as a result of blowback from Republican disasters.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 05:18:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, it's not about not being different. It's about making a difference in serious issues, and it's effect on their own futures. Winning over commission positions will count nothing if their blind support for Israel and weak position on Iraq will only make them own the same disaster, and if their cowardice to speak up seriously about Peak Oil will only make them own high oil prices - it will count nothing, or could even be worse, as this necessarily leads to a Republican landslide in 2008 (this time without the need to steal an election). E.g., as Democrats stand now (and as they stood in 2004), a victory would be Phyrric. And there is a precedent: the Carter Presidency, followed by 12 Republoscum years.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 07:50:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Al Gore lost the election himself, and then when he won it, gave it up anyway.  He really only has himself to blame.

If you look at Bush Sr.'s and Clinton's administrations, which is pretty much what we had to go on to figure out with Gore and Dubya would be like, there was not a huge amount of difference.  In fact, Clinton laid the goundwork for the crisis we are in today.  

I voted for Nader and would do it all over again.  Maybe if more Americans voted for their conscience rather than who the TV tells them to vote for things would be better.  But I don't see why I'm responsible for their idiocy...  

Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. -Voltaire

by p------- on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 08:44:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And Gore had Lieberman as VP, so you could have expected a similar Middle-East policy. Even more accomodating of Israel, in fact, if such a thing is possible.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 08:50:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, I don't think Hole Joe would have had as much influence as President Cheney.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 09:21:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'd imagine he'd had as much influence as Gore had (on Clinton's climate policy for example).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 09:21:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I voted for Nader

2000, 2004, both?

I was for Nader both times (you know the whole world wished to have a vote in US elections, especially two years ago...), but had some doubts about my 2000 judgement in hindsight. Not about 2004, never. (Regarding 2000, it's not that I expected Dubya to be less worse, but lingering thoughts that maybe President Gore would have been better than Candidate Gore.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 09:16:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I wasn't even aware that Nader ran in 2004...  Was he on the ballot?  I voted for Kerry.  I never supported Kerry.  I loathe him.  But I felt 1) he could not possibly be worse than BushCo. and 2) America needed to send a strong message to the world that we do not support Bush and his policies.  Well, so much for that...

I don't regret it.  

Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. -Voltaire

by p------- on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 12:14:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, Nader + Camejo. They didn't run on the Green Party ticket, though.

The Democrats spent more effort trying to keep him off the ballot with legal shenanigans than they did fighting Bush, which tells you where their priorities lie. It is possible that Nader didn't get on the ballot in Illinois, he wasn't able to get on the ballot in every state.

Apart from voter registration, ballot access is an important issue in America, apparently.

Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 12:18:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Indeedy, Nader was kept off the abllot in Illinois.
In the general election, Nader appeared on the ballot in 34 states and the District of Columbia. Ballot access ultimately became one of the most significant issues of the Nader campaign - in his concession speech, Nader characterized ballot access as a "civil liberties issue" and noted that Democratic attempts to challenge his ballot access were rejected in the "overwhelming majority" of state courts.


Nothing is 'mere'. — Richard P. Feynman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 12:22:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I throughly agree. As long as we dutifully vote for the lesser evil, we will never have any alternatives. Putting the Democrats back in charge will do very little to change the basic problems of American foreign policy.
by Richard Lyon (rllyon@gmail.com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 10:14:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yesterday before leaving for home, I wrote that a three-week heat wave is just coming to an end. It did so in a spectacular way, and in the form of a meteorological speciality.

As part of a large extra-tropical low-pressure system, a cold front was about to sweep over the Carpathian Basin. However, the front was bent -- and it formed a loop, creating a mini-low-pressure zone, which for a few short hours gyrated itself up into a giant rotating storm system/mini-cyclone (IR satellite photo at 18h CEST yesterday):

The central dense overcast (which caused an unreal darkness where I was) was about 250-300 km across, the full rotation system almost 1000 km. Pressure fell to about 980 mb (that would be Category 1 hurricane territory in the Atlantic, albeit with stronger winds).

Rainfall was strongest just south of the capital (83 mm), so where I lived it was pretty heavy too, it was so strong water stood 1-2 cm high on the terrace despite flowing down along one edge. Half the city was shut down temporarily (including a swimming European Championship just held here) due to such scenes:

...and this is just surface water, no swollen creek or river. Italia Italia (the rain just hit the fans at the swimming championship):



*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 05:55:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"When we remember we are all twain, the mysteries disappear and life stands explained."

Mark Mad

Ying tong ying tong
Ying tong ying tong
Ying tong iddle I po
Ying tong ying tong
Ying tong iddle I po
Iddle I po.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 05:40:46 AM EST
I visited the Great British Beer Festival last night in its new venue of Earl's Court. A venue I haven't visited since seeing Led Zeppelin in 1975 (irrelevant but I'm showing off).

I was cheered to see a beer from one of my favourite breweries win the Supreme champion awards, Crouch Vale. The only problem being of course that I doubt that CV will be able to maintain production quality given the leap in quantity such a win will bring. I may be off to Dengie this weekend to see if I can sample some before it's all gone.

However, the joy of the GBBF in recent years has been the huge selection of excellent American beers on offer. But this year, the container missed the boat on which it was scheduled and is now unlikely to make it to the UK before the fest is over.

Last night I felt lost, a planned evening sampling some of my favourite beers was thwarted and I was left not quite sure what to do.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 06:35:54 AM EST
From ESA:

Landing on Titan - the new Movies

This movie was built thanks to the data collected by ESA's Huygens Descent Imager/Spectral Radiometer (DISR) on 14 January 2005, during the 147-minutes plunge through Titan's thick orange-brown atmosphere to a soft sandy riverbed.

In 4 minutes 40 seconds, the movie shows what the probe `saw' within the few hours of the descent and the eventual landing. At first the Huygens camera just saw haze over the distant surface. The haze started to clear only at about 60 kilometres altitude, making it possible to resolve surface features as large as 100 metres. Only after landing could the probe's camera resolve little grains of sand millions and millions times smaller than Titan. The movie provides a glimpse on such a huge change of scale.

by Alex in Toulouse on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 10:33:07 AM EST
Following the Constitutional Council's latest worsening of the DADVSI law, the ODEBI league has opened a "sign a promise to boycott the CD/DVD industry" page:

http://www.odebi.org/boycothon/

by Alex in Toulouse on Wed Aug 2nd, 2006 at 11:28:00 AM EST


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