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50% of electricity from the wind by 2025 ... A Danish Roadmap

by a siegel Sun Nov 18th, 2007 at 10:07:35 PM EST

Denmark has an announced plan for 30 percent of all electricity to come from renewable power by 2025. Well a just released study might make this seemingly ambitious goal a relic of the past.  Ea Energy Analysis produced 50% Wind Power in 2025 laying out the costs, benefits, and challenges of reaching this target.


Much as per discussions for a Smart Grid in the United States, a key challenge toward moving toward such a high renewable energy contribution is a better electricity distribution system.

Integration of 50% wind power into the Danish electricity system is technically possible without threatening security of supply. Reaching the objective with a viable socio-economy implies that a more dynamic electricity system is developed and that the international electricity market functions efficiently in order to handle balancing and needs of system reserves across borders.

And, well, that the Danish electricity system be integrated with other Euroepan nations, with a system for balancing power generation and requirements.


And, well, compared to the base case, "business as usual", scenario, Ea Energy Analysis found that electricity prices per KwH would actually drop by 0.4 cents Euro.  And, that is inclusive of the costs for building and running that smart(er) grid.

Okay, now that I've introduced the subject, awaiting Jerome to step in and fill in the details ...

NOTE: Crossposted from Energy Smart.

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A more critical background. 50% of electricity from wind by 2020 was an actual declared goal of the previous, Social-Democrat government, already in the late nineties. But enter current PM Anders Fogh Rasmussen, a dogmatic neoliberal (who denied it to first get elected): when taking office in 2001, he elminiated or reduced most wind subsidies. A direct result was the collapse of the Danish wind market and hard times for the big Danish turbine producers before they could switch to exports. Ironically, the one subsidy he let temporarily in place, for repowering, produced a short-lived second boom way beyond expectations.

But rather than turbines owned/rented by farmers on land, the Social Democrat plan relied heavily on big government-supported, utility-owned off-shore wind farms. In this field, Rasmussen had more difficulty backing out, since the big utilities wanted the projects. At one point, he was forced to give consent to a part of the originally planned off-shore farms, and argued for no consent to all the planned by saying that those consented are enough to keep Denmark in plan, since wind on land progressed more than planned...

I note that the two big utilities are pushing for more wind with studies for a time now. Two years ago, there was a study proving that the Scandinavian grid can take 50% Danish wind with little modifications.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Nov 19th, 2007 at 05:01:04 AM EST
Thank you for the background, information.  

So, how should we take this report?

And, well, it shows the importance of political consistency for achieving long-term objectives re energy efficiency / renewable power (and, well, other Global Warming related issues).

Blogging regularly at Get Energy Smart. NOW!!!

by a siegel (siegeadATgmailIGNORETHISdotPLEASEcom) on Mon Nov 19th, 2007 at 08:05:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I take it as heavy lobbying towards a government narrowly re-elected just a week ago, and a sign that should this government fall at last in 4 or even 8 years (not to speak of 1-2, should this government fall apart), 50% by 2025 will almost certainly be achieved.

BTW, you can check up-to-date Danish wind power installation, decommissioning and production data (Excel!), and  monthly data for the whole electricity sector (Excel!). In the first link, you can see the 2001 drop, 2002 re-powering jump, and the slump since. From the second link, one can calculate wind's share in the brutto (with grid losses) electricity consumption:

(Note: last few years' variation is mostly due to weather, this year looks to end a series of bad wind years.) You see that 30% by 2025 is not at all ambitious.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Nov 19th, 2007 at 10:14:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Looking more at the statistics, I add: in Denmark, both consumption and wind power generation peak in January. In January this year, wind's share was a record 35.6%! I know that already the year before, on some stormy days West Denmark was on 100% wind.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Nov 19th, 2007 at 10:23:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I note that the two big utilities are pushing for more wind with studies for a time now. Two years ago, there was a study proving that the Scandinavian grid can take 50% Danish wind with little modifications.

Sounds resonable. Sweden and Norway has lots and lots of hydro power. And for regulatory purposes hydro is great.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Mon Nov 19th, 2007 at 11:00:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Looking forward to being paid by Denmark for supplying the stable power supply needed by a 50 % wind grid...

That is, not the power itself, but the guarantee that power will be forthcoming if needed.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Mon Nov 19th, 2007 at 08:45:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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