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Beyond GDP - Day 1 Summary

by nanne Tue Nov 20th, 2007 at 08:38:42 AM EST

A few days ago, Bruno-Ken posted a brief write-up of the Beyond GDP conference, which takes place this Monday and Tuesday. Saving on my carbon budget, I was able to follow the first day of the conference over the live stream. Though of course this offers no replacement for networking with assorted officials of international institutions, etcetera. Here's a run-down of Mondays proceedings:

The conference is about "measuring progress, true wealth and the well-being of nations". There is a growing realisation that the current set of macro-economic indicators that dominate decision-making are no longer adequate for the policy challenges that the world faces today. This theme is by now so familiar that when Barroso, in the opening address, stated that "to deal with the challenges of the future, we can't use the measures of the past", it sounded like a platitude.

Maybe that was because Barroso said it, though it certainly didn't sound any more meaningful when Almunia repeated it in similar words.

As this is not going to be chronological, taking a glance at the programme might be of help.


The main point of the first day was to provide the political backdrop. Why do politicians slash policy makers need new tools to measure progress? How should the tools be presented to them? Which tools are the best? Who benefits, and who loses? What can we, in this conference, mean?

A short list of the speakers as a guide:

José Manuel Barroso (President of the European Commission); Joaquín Almunia (Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs); Rui Baleiras (Secretary of State for Regional Development, Portugal, EU Presidency); Bruno S. Frey (Professor of Economic Policy and Non-Market Economics, University of Zurich); Hans Rosling (Professor of International Health, Karolinska Institute, Sweden); HE Chief Emeka Anyaoku (President, WWF); Pervenche Berès (Chair EP ECON committee); Pier Carlo Padoan (Deputy Secretary-General, OECD); Giulio Santagata (Minister for the Implementation of the Government Programme, Italy).

To the last question, what the conference can mean, the political figures from the Commission, Barroso and Almunia, expressed the hope that this conference would produce an end-product that would be as significant as the development of GDP in the 1930s. Both also referenced Kuznets and his quote that GDP could scarcely be used to infer the welfare of a nation. Symbolically, Adam Smith (the received Adam Smith) played a role on the background as per the title of the conference, repeated by Barroso as a question.

In the 1930s, GDP was developed as part of the Keynesian programme to revive the economy of the USA. It provided a measurement the government could use to assess its economic programmes. But where the 1930s were a time of economic crisis where reviving the economy was the paramount goal, today we have a great variety of issues to deal with (global warming, energy security of supply, poverty and fair trade, terrorism). That, at least, was the account given by Barroso and Almunia. Though I really don't know if terrorism is an issue we could catch in any measure of progress...

Nearly all contributors preferred to talk about supplementing GDP rather than replacing it as a measure. There are several virtues of GDP that were widely praised and mentioned as benchmarks for these supplementary measures: GDP is simple, it is clear, it is objective, it is scaleable, it is comparable. I'd guess some people here could break out into a bout of violent, uncontrollable laughter upon reading that, but that is how all the political figures and officials from the Commission and other institutions view the matter.

There was also consensus on the view that no single measure for progress could be followed. Barroso mentioned a 'multi-dimensional' picture of well-being and name-dropped Amartya Sen. Almunia said that there was some room for 'composite measures' (like the HDI) as publicity tools, but that they were controversial as the components would have to be 'weighted', which makes them susceptible to political decisions and makes them less transparant. Baleiras stated that using to many indicators would cloud the picture; make the reporting incomprehensible to politicians and the public, who need to see the broader view. Nonetheless, he saw a single measure as being both theoretically and practically impossible, and advocated a small set of 'high level indicators'. Padoan similarly advocated a set of 'key indicators'.

Indicators of well-being and sustainability are seen to be needed to fulfil several objectives. One of these is 'internal' to government: government needs to be able to assess the success of its efforts. To do so it requires measures that are scaleable and that are comparable across time, between different regions, and with regard to other countries. Preferably the measurement, at least, should be objective. That internal measure has an external counterpart in government accountability, a theme raised towards the end by Santagata and Padoan. Somewhat related, Padoan also thought that civil participation would increase if the people have a better view of the goals their society wants to achieve and can track results that measure progress towards those goals.

The process by which the society sets goals, then, also becomes an issue. Baleiras conceived this process as taking place within a 'policy cycle', in which the policy makers would set the goals at the start of the process, measures would be produced on the basis of these goals, indicators would be defined on the basis of the measures, and policy-makers would continuously update the goals on the basis of feedback from the reporting at the end of the process. Padoan's conception of the formulation of goals was more oriented towards civil society, he hoped that each country would create an institution for assessing progress, much like a central bank for assessing the money supply. The government, unions, business, NGOs and citizens could then participate through this institution to define what progress means to them.

Frey detracted from the mainline opinion that a concise but multidimensional set of indicators is the best way forward by spreading the gospel of Richard Layard: claiming that happiness could be measured accurately and should replace other measures. Leaving the scientific argument on the table (read Layard's book), Frey's argument was a bit frustrating. First, he argued that happiness could be used as a measure to replace GDP, the HDI, etcetera. Then, he argued that the government should not seek to maximise happiness, but instead create the preconditions for happiness. I agree with the latter, but his reasons, that government would cook the books and that other values such as responsibility, honour, etc. also matter, are not those I'd use. Government can also cook the books on the preconditions, and if you think that other values than happiness also matter, then what about measuring them? Anyway, the main argument I can see why government should not try to maximise happiness directly, or indeed any other value, is Soma. That is why we need a 'capabilities approach', but that approach should not focus solely on happiness, instead it should focus on all values.

There was little in-depth discussion of indicators. Anyaoko mentioned the WWFs 'living planet index', which tracks 1,300 vertrebrate species (and recorded a 30% decline in overall population since the 1970s), and a composite index the WWF is developing by combining the HDI and the ecological footprint. Anyaoko represented the viewpoint that we are in a state of 'ecological overshoot' and had a couple of good one-liners, like "Societies cannot continue to operate as if the planet was a business in liquidation". The need to be able to zoom in and out and provide precise sectoral as well as high-level indicators was emphasised by Baleiras and Santagata. Santagata further stressed the need to develop innovative measures and indicators, and mentioned the use of 'social capital' in Italy as an example.

Some here expressed a kind of fear that the European Union would use these new measures of progress as a way to hide the supposed failure of its Lisbon strategy. I don't think that is the case, but there was a discussion on this point between a member of the audience and Berès at the end of the first day, where Berès mentioned that if you used GDP to measure the success of Lisbon, you would not take into account issues such as sustainability. Decisions recently taken by the EU on emission reductions and targets for renewable energy underscored this point. Externalities would at least have to be taken into account when we want to measure progress.

Rosling's speech was quite similar to the ones he gave at TED and this is really one speech you're much better off watching than reading about, it's about visualisation of statistics, after all. It's available on TED. One element of his speech in this conference may be worth raising, and that is that he stressed 'database hugging disorder' and the need for governments to proactively open up information.

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I caught the tail end of the morning session, off to watch the afternoon webcast now...
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Nov 20th, 2007 at 08:39:48 AM EST
make the reporting incomprehensible to politicians and the public, who need to see the broader view

Translation: need to be kept out of the inner sanctum of knowledge where only the initiates must be allowed thread.

The whole fucking problem is that politicians and the public are only superficially engaged with the bloody economic debate.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Nov 20th, 2007 at 09:17:05 AM EST
To expand that: GDP is a lie that makes it seem as if there is a simple way to measure what's going on.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Nov 20th, 2007 at 09:22:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
True. Most of the participants don't see any of the problems of the GDP measure in terms of accuracy, comparability, etc. There were a few (one certain, one I more or less assume) exceptions. But overall, the criticism of GDP on this conference ranged from 'it does not tell us everything we want to know' to 'it does not tell us most of what we want to know', without any focus on the actual problems of the measure (as opposed to the effects of the use of the measure, which is widely criticised).
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Nov 20th, 2007 at 11:04:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by findmeaDoorIntoSummer on Tue Nov 20th, 2007 at 07:53:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Apparently I'm not the only one covering this, see the Community Indicators blog. Seems to be an interesting blog. I hope that blog will also cover today's morning sessions, as I did not catch much of them.

The summary of the afternoon session and the conlusions should be ready in a few hours...

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Nov 20th, 2007 at 11:28:58 AM EST
Great diary and thanks for reporting on this event.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Nov 20th, 2007 at 02:08:45 PM EST
I've been a big proponent of a happiness indicator, but I think the problem is one of domain.

Do we strive to maximize whatever measure we chose on a local, regional or national level, or should we, instead, try to maximize it on a global level?

Right now economic policies in the industrialized countries are designed to maximize things for their own inhabitants. There is no concern for others. If there is a concern then this is treated as an external problem: "how do we improve growth in Africa?", for example, instead of "how do we improve growth in Africa and the industrialized nations at the same time as part of an integrated plan"?

I don't see a more globalized view catching on, we don't have a world government, nor a world mechanism to enforce compliance with the policies.

We are left with the underlying truth of all political decisions: might makes right.

Politicians who attend meetings like this are either naive, duplicitous or hypocrites, (or perhaps they just like a few days away from the office).

Policies not Politics
---- Daily Landscape

by rdf (robert.feinman@gmail.com) on Tue Nov 20th, 2007 at 03:33:05 PM EST
thanks very much for covering this with this great summary, nanne.  for some reason, i have not been able to access the conference video through my dorm network.

from your report, it sounds like the discussions have been quite substantial (single vs. multiple indicators, internal vs. external objectives, policy implementation not only by government but other members of society, "holistic" planetary measures vs. country-by-country measures, etc.) ranging over topics that we have discussed here on ET.

from what you could see, could you gauge how "serious" the EU seems to be about developing such an index/set of indices and using it in place of the GDP?  were there any indications that this was just lip-service/pandering to the currently fashionable concerns about sustainability, the environment, etc.?

Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.

by marco on Tue Nov 20th, 2007 at 05:54:54 PM EST
From what I see the Commission is serious about this, they referred three times (Barroso, Almunia and at the end Dimas) to the 'breakthrough' of GDP in the 1930s and about replicating that with this conference.

I have a hunch that Catherine Day has something to do with that, to be insider-y.

The European Parliament seems similarly serious, as did the various statisticians from Eurostat and from the Member States, the OECD and to a certain extent even the World Bank.

The EU did not move on this conference as a mere showcase. If they did, they failed in a rather spectacular way, because as you say there was little media reporting on it. But the crowd they selected is not one you'd gather for a mere publicity stunt, I'd think.

Of course the EU is more than the people organising this conference, more than the Commission, more than the European Parliament. In order to really move in a big way on this matter, the Commission needs to convince the Member States to allocate more money to their statistical offices and perhaps also to Eurostat. If that will happen/work is an open question.

And then there are other challenges, like opening up information...

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Nov 20th, 2007 at 06:58:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
i've only seen one news item about this conference since last week, and the item was basically a press release announcing the results of a GlobeScan survey regarding popular interest level about the need for indexes replacing GDP:

bruno-ken:

This research across 10 countries shows public support for such broader measures of true wealth, looking beyond GDP. Clearly, international public opinion would be supportive of the goals of the Beyond GDP Conference in the European Parliament in November 2007.

it's too bad that there is not more media coverage of this growing interest and concern about moving beyond GDP-based evaluations, especially when a formal conference featuring top leaders of the EU is taking place to address these matters.

perhaps the media can only handle one paradigm-shift at a time.

Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.

by marco on Tue Nov 20th, 2007 at 06:12:45 PM EST
We badly need a Bretton-Woods 2.0, with new models and metrics applied universally.

The problem for any country or bloc is that it can't easily apply a new model unilaterally. So any change is going to have to be imposed by collective agreement.

That won't happen while a majority of influential players don't yet want to admit how badly broken the current system is.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 08:22:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Colman replied to the GlobeScan survey article I posted in my other diary as follows:

Colman:

I have a nasty feeling that, in the end, they all suffer from the same basic problem as GDP: the measurement errors and differences in precisely what is being measured will make comparisons meaningless.

-- succintly summarizing the points made in that exchange he had with Mig referenced in this diary.

Reading that exchange gave me some serious pause: If all measures are doomed to be inaccurate/incompatible/incommensurate, etc., then the whole "Beyond GDP" project must be a non-starter.

But is that premise really true?  Even if we cannot have a perfect measure -- perfectly objective, perfectly measurable, perfectly comprehensive, perfectly comparable, etc. -- can we have one that is significantly better than GDP, and good enough for the present purposes of dealing with what I believe is an (at least for now) entrenched human disposition to measure, compare, rank and so forth based on clear-cut simple numbers.

Or would a merely "good enough" and "better than GDP" index in the long run be dangerous and harmful, because -- like GDP -- its limitations combined with exploitation for political reasons would lead to dysfunctional overreliance and obsession about it at the expense of a clear and direct assessment of underlying realities?

I don't know, but I agree it is a critical question.  I wonder whether if we have something that is better than GDP, any abuse that comes of it will be correspondingly less severe.  I also wonder whether the benefits of having a simple indicator (or set of indicators), provided that they are "good enough", might outweigh their abuse.

On that second point, pessimistically, perhaps, I think people, the media, politicians, will continue to measure and compare in terms of simple, single numbers, and trying to change this mindset would much harder than coming up with a better yardstick by which they make these evaluations.

Japan, for example, is rather notorious for having a measuring, ranking and comparing mindset.  And while cultural mindset may have a lot to do with it, I believe star ratings on Amazon.com and IMDB.com, World Cup trophies and Olympic medals, school grades and exam results, even Google search results, etc. suggest that this is fairly common phenomenon everywhere.

From nanne's diary, it sounds like the conference discussed this issue:

Indicators of well-being and sustainability are seen to be needed to fulfil several objectives. One of these is 'internal' to government: government needs to be able to assess the success of its efforts. To do so it requires measures that are scaleable and that are comparable across time, between different regions, and with regard to other countries. Preferably the measurement, at least, should be objective. That internal measure has an external counterpart in government accountability, a theme raised towards the end by Santagata and Padoan. Somewhat related, Padoan also thought that civil participation would increase if the people have a better view of the goals their society wants to achieve and can track results that measure progress towards those goals.

That last sentence reminded me of some of the characteristics of what Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi described as the psychologically hyper-effective state of flow:

  1. Clear goals (expectations and rules are discernible and goals are attainable and align appropriately with one's skill set and abilities).
  2. Direct and immediate feedback (successes and failures in the course of the activity are apparent, so that behavior can be adjusted as needed).
  3. Balance between ability level and challenge (the activity is neither too easy nor too difficult).
  4. A sense of personal control over the situation or activity.

Of course I don't mean to suggest that we should be trying to get society or the planet into some kind of state of "cosmic flow".

Just that it struck me that the Beyond GDPers, as described by nanne, mention "civil participation" which would seem to correspond to "a sense of personal control over the situation or activity", as well as "a better view of the goals", and the importance of "feedback":  "track results that measure progress towards those goals".

On the one hand, it seems that people are inclined to use measurements/rankings/comparisons anyway.  On the other hand, having the right measurents and goals is likely to help us not only to gauge how much society is progressing to or regressing from where we would like it to be, but would increase our awareness, participation and engagement in that process as members of society.

Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.

by marco on Tue Nov 20th, 2007 at 07:12:17 PM EST
In the end, the participation angle forwarded by Padoan (of the OECD) is about the same thing as your .sig

But there are a lot of hooks on the way to there.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Nov 20th, 2007 at 07:24:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
bruno-ken:
I believe star ratings on Amazon.com and IMDB.com, World Cup trophies and Olympic medals, school grades and exam results, even Google search results, etc. suggest that this is fairly common phenomenon everywhere.

Cart before the horse. Most of these competitive measures exist because the economic (i.e. political) framing of transactions and relationships is pre-defined as competitive.

It's a top-down phenomenon. When 'competition' is defined as a good thing, then competition appears everywhere.

bruno-ken:

Of course I don't mean to suggest that we should be trying to get society or the planet into some kind of state of "cosmic flow".

I'm unconvinced that this would be an inferior alternative.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 08:17:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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