It's Here (Almost)

by Captain Future Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 03:30:23 AM EST

Oil soared to record highs on Wednesday, drawing within a hair's breadth of the $100 milestone as the U.S. dollar plumbed new lows and the onset of cold U.S. weather stirred anxiety over winter supplies.

(The above link is a Yahoo page so it may change.)

A bit more...

U.S. light crude for January delivery surged to a record of $99.29 a barrel early in the session, but pared those gains to stand 61 cents higher at $98.64 by 2:06 a.m. EST.
Prices blasted past the previous $98.62 a barrel record, extending a rally that has lifted oil more than 40 percent since August, as funds buy in on the weakening dollar and concerns that limited OPEC supplies will squeeze winter supplies.

London Brent crude rose 50 cents to $95.99 a barrel.

It's a half hour past midnight here in California, so I'm sure you'll be discussing this here soon.

It's Here (Almost) | 26 comments (26 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: It's Here (Almost) (none / 0)

Well, $100 is a psychological barrier. Hard to break, but when it is broken there should be a considerable upside, earlier held back by said psychology.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 03:34:51 AM EST

Re: It's Here (Almost) (none / 1)

We have to assume that the Brazilian "monstrous" field won't save a day.

by das monde on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 04:32:25 AM EST

Re: It's Here (Almost) (none / 1)

The Brazilian oil field is the equivalent of 2 to 3 years of current demand, assuming 100% is recoverable (which it isn't). And do we know the grade of crude it is? Light sweet or heavy sour?

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 04:36:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's Here (Almost) (none / 1)

Actually, it sounds pretty good (if the survey isn't tainted):

BBC NEWS | Business | Brazil announces new oil reserves

The Brazilian government says huge new oil reserves discovered off its coast could turn the country into one of the biggest oil producers in the world.
Petrobras, Brazil's national oil company, says it believes the offshore Tupi field has between 5bn and 8bn barrels of recoverable light oil.

Certainly a better grade than Orinoco.

I've also seen natural gas mentioned in connection with the Brazilian find but I don't have time to track that down right now. :-)

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 04:42:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's Here (Almost) (none / 1)

between 5bn and 8bn barrels of recoverable light oil

Okay, so that's 2 to 3 years' worth of "good stuff".

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 05:25:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's Here (Almost) (none / 0)

It is a lot... the great thing is that it will become in hand just exactlyy at the time we need it the most.. when other fields are depleting fast in four- five years.

this oil will not reduce the price of oil and it would make the transition less bumpy...

And if Brazil has decent governemnt.. they will also win..

it's a win win situation...
OH and the problem of global warming is coal.. not oil...

A pelasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 06:39:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's Here (Almost) (none / 1)

See! The markets provide!

All you have to do is believe hard enough.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 08:24:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

2 or 3 years? (4.00 / 3)

Current consumption = 85 mb/d = 31 billion barrels per year.

Make it a couple months.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 08:07:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2 or 3 years? (none / 1)

Whoops, I was off by a factor of 10.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 08:12:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2 or 3 years? (none / 1)

The important thing is that it can provide 3 million barrels per day during roughly 5 years..

It will not affect price int he shrot term.. it will eep on increasing... but it would make the transition easier.. and for a longer period...

My big worry right now is global warming.. and it is called coal...

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 09:26:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Nah (none / 1)

Given its size and technicla parameters, it's unlikely to product more than 1mb/d even with the optimistic reserve numbers.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 09:29:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nah (none / 0)

If it's only 1 mb per day for 15 years.. it is a big drop but not enough.. if it reaches 3 million per day then teh transition should be smoother in the 2012-2015

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 09:32:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's Here (Almost) (none / 0)

More like 2-3 months.

Still, it's a glorious find. Light and sweet. Biggest since Kashagan 20-30 years ago. (The IHT wrote that Kashagan was discovered in 2000 in the paper today, but the truth is that the Russians had known about it since the 80's but never had had any reason, nor the ability, to drill it).

This Tupi field is really ultra-deep. 6000 metres of water and then 4800 metres of rock and salt. When it's completed it will be a triumph of science and engineering.

I don't mind the problematic location as I have financial interests in the ultra-deep offshore drilling sector.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 08:16:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's Here (Almost) (none / 1)

This Tupi field is really ultra-deep. 6000 metres of water and then 4800 metres of rock and salt. When it's completed it will be a triumph of science and engineering.

Ahem.

At what oil price does this field become economical to exploit?

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 08:21:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's Here (Almost) (none / 0)

I can't say, but I am sure it will be profitable at current prices.

Maybe the level is $50-$80 for this field? But I am just speculating here, I don't really know much at all about these things.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 08:32:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

A few PNs (4.00 / 2)

Kashagan really was discovered in 2000. The North Caspian had never been explored by the Soviets. It was known as a potentially good place to do so, but that's not quite the same thing.

Tupi is in 2,000m waters, not 6,000, but it's still a lot.

It's not that light for oil - it's just a lot lighter than the (very heavy) crude Brazil produces for now.

and it's not clear at all that the announced reserves are there - they are interpolating between two far away wells (the second one which cost USD 250 Million, btw).

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 09:12:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A few PNs (none / 0)

Well god damn it. I guess I was wrong about Kashagan. But I was so sure... Grr.

The numbers are from the IHT.

To coax the oil from the Tupi reservoir, engineers will have to drill up to 4,800 meters, or 16,000 feet, below the sea floor through salt and rock, in water depths of up to 6,000 meters, an undertaking that is at the frontier of the global industry's technological ability, according to PFC Energy, a consultancy in Washington.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 09:39:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A few PNs (none / 0)

It's 28 degrees API so medium oil, but close to light which begins at 31.1 IIRC.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 09:43:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Just in time (none / 1)

for Thanksgiving! (if you're estadounidense)

What is a cynic? A man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.

by marco on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 04:54:23 AM EST

Re: Just in time (none / 1)

If you're estadounidense that would be acción de gracias.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 05:26:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Just in time (none / 1)

Ah, did not know the Spanish name for it. Just wanted to distinguish our Thanksgiving from Canada's, Japan's, and that of any other country that may celebrate a holiday called "Thanksgiving".

What is a cynic? A man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.

by marco on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 06:03:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's Here (Almost) (none / 0)

I posted a comemnt in the saloooooooon...

http://www.eurotrib.com/comments/2007/11/16/13351/106/68?mode=alone;showrate=1#68

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 06:40:57 AM EST

Re: It's Here (Almost) (none / 1)

WTI Crude is back to $97.76. Brent is still rising. Maybe we'll have to wait a few more days?

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 07:27:06 AM EST

But not much (4.00 / 4)

Total CEO sees little respite from high oil price
TIENEN, Belgium, Nov 21 (Reuters) - The head of French oil giant Total (TOTF.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) warned on Wednesday that oil prices would remain high as crude prices inched closer to $100 a barrel.
"Today, there is not much chance for oil prices to decline," Total Chief Executive Christophe de Margerie said.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 08:11:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

TOD press release (none / 1)

TheOilDrum.com Responds to Wall Street Journal Peak Oil Article (PRWeb)
On November 19, the Wall Street Journal published an article titled "Oil Officials See Limit Looming on Production." In our view, the WSJ article omits several key points regarding future oil production, including the fact that world oil production has stagnated in the last two years, despite rising prices. Our response to the WSJ article can be found here: WSJ Article Response.

Do we want to do ET press releases?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 09:28:38 AM EST

Re: TOD press release (none / 1)

I do nto know about the release.. but you have a lovable guy called Pitt.. lovely guy... I would bet that a lot of you you would strangle him...

Vaya hijo de puta prepotente.

If you do it in english I can help with the spanish

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Wed Nov 21st, 2007 at 09:53:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

It's Here (Almost) | 26 comments (26 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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