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Countdown to $100 oil (52) - buying protection

by Jerome a Paris Tue Nov 6th, 2007 at 04:39:42 PM EST

Oil prices hit $97 earlier today, as bad news continue to sink in (floods in Mexico, a pipeline damaged in Yemen, tension in Pakistan, storms in the North Sea), and the markets are very obviously thinking about what happens next.

That graph represents the number of open positions betting that oil will be above $100 in December 2008 (in one year's time) - ie people paying today to have the right to purchase oil then at no more than $100 dollars.



Scramble to insure against more oil price rises

Energy consumers and speculators are scrambling to take out options contracts to insure themselves against oil prices rising above $100 a barrel - a further sign of growing expectations of a spike in the crude market.

Some have even taken out contracts to protect themselves against prices rising to $250 a barrel in the next two years. (...) The strong flows in call options - contracts that give the right to buy at a predetermined price and date - are boosting short-term oil prices as the banks that sell them have to hedge some of their positions by buying crude oil in the spot market.

(...)

The open interest in Nymex December 2010 call options at $100 a barrel rose on Monday to 24,903 contracts, double the level of the start of the year. (...) The open interest at the December 2007 call option at $100 a barrel is unusually high at 48,032 contracts. As banks cover their positions, that could push the spot price towards $100 a barrel.

This page by FreeCharts.com will give you an idea of the number of contracts being traded overall at various maturities (which include all 'plain vanilla' forward sales - the same at a future date at a price agreed today - and all sorts of other more sophisticated options). The symbolic $100 level is clearly in all traders' minds.

The "it's speculation" meme has been doing the rounds and is regularly repeated in the comments here.

Well, speculators, usually, only accelerate underlying trends: by betting that a given price will be reached in the near future, they effectively bring that price about faster. The important thing to note is that this pays off only if the underlying trend is correct: people are betting real money (even if not necessarily always their own...) on something happening, and that means these bets have to have some basis in reality. What people mean when they blame speculation is that they think that the markets are overshooting - i.e. in betting on higher prices, they keep on betting beyond what the "real" price should be, until others finally bet against them and bring the prices down to that underlying equilibrium level. Overshooting is a regular feature of markets, just as crowds movements take a life of their own (including occasionally all the way to stampedes), driven by fashion, herd behavior or fear of losing out on a 'certain' trend.


The Oil Debate

DAN YERGIN (chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates): [The price of oil] is decoupled from the fundamentals of supply and demand. What's driving the oil price now is the cauldron of geopolitics, momentum and financial markets, and tying it all together, fear, combined with a weakening dollar. So we could be one or two events away from $100 a barrel oil. So events could put it there. But if you look at it in terms of supply and demand, it's not as connected as it was in the past...I think the way it's going now, some other events, some more intensification--we're just six dollars away from $100, we can get there. But you know...economics work. And at some point, the price will respond to it, particularly when it's disconnected from fundamentals.

BOB HORMATS (Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs International): I think [the price of oil] is out of line with the fundamentals, let me address that first. Oil is not just an economic commodity, it's a political commodity. And every time you get a lot of fear in a region that produces a lot of oil, even if it's not directly related to that oil supply, even if it's around that area, it does tend to push prices up.

Daniel Yergin is the man who predicted an unprecedented build up of oil supply back in 2005 (production is, right now, lower than it was then), $38 oil for November 2005 (it was above $60) and other assorted optimistic price forecasts, but hey, I've been accused of being a Cassandra for years, so I suppose I should give him the same courtesy and acknowledge that he may be right eventually...

The fact is - in today's religion, the market is always right and, today, the market is betting on oil going above $100 per barrel. Who am I to argue with our deities?

:: ::

In more interesting news, here's an email sent out by MoveOn about Hillary Clinton's energy plan, which has been receiving a lot of praise here on dKos and elsewhere:

Yesterday in Iowa, Hillary Clinton announced her plan to confront our energy and climate crisis--and it's really good. Her plan, and her words announcing it, proves that Senator Clinton is taking this issue seriously:

"This is the biggest challenge we've faced in a generation--a challenge to our economy, our security, our health and our planet....I believe America is ready to take action, ready to break the bonds of the old energy economy and ready to prove that the climate crisis is also one of the greatest economic opportunities in the history of our country."

Over the past year, many of us have given Senator Clinton a lot of input on how her energy plan should look. MoveOn members have asked her to include fuel efficient cars, polluters-pay mechanisms, and to commit to dramatic reductions in greenhouse gases. Her plan includes all those things.

Industry will say this plan is too aggressive, so it's critical that Hillary Clinton knows that we have her back on this issue. Can you please take a minute and thank Senator Clinton for her bold and progressive energy plan?

http://hillaryclinton.com/action/energyplan/

This year we have been engaging with all of the presidential candidates--urging them to stake out progressive positions on key issues and supporting them when they do. Today, it is Hillary who deserves the praise and encouragement. Here are just some of the key points:

  • A new cap-and-trade program that auctions 100 percent of credits;
  • An increase in fuel efficiency standards to 55 miles per gallon by 2030, and $20 billion of "Green Vehicle Bonds" to help U.S. automakers retool their plants to meet the standards;
  • The creation of a "National Energy Council" within the White House--the first Executive Branch to be dedicated to this issue;
  • An aggressive comprehensive energy efficiency agenda to reduce electricity consumption 20 percent from projected levels by 2020;
  • A $50 billion Strategic Energy Fund, paid for in part by oil companies, to fund investments in alternative energy;

Click here to see the entire plan:

http://www.moveon.org/r?r=3138&id=&t=1

Hillary's the last of the Democratic candidates to announce her energy plan. It's now clear that the Democrats are united in making the climate crisis a priority. All of them would lead our country in the right direction if elected.

Below are links to all of the Democratic candidates' positions on climate and energy:

Sen. Joe Biden: http://www.joebiden.com/issues/?id=0011
Sen. Hillary Clinton: http://hillaryclinton.com/issues/energy/
Sen. Chris Dodd: http://chrisdodd.com/issues/energy_independence
Sen. John Edwards: http://johnedwards.com/issues/energy/
Sen. Mike Gravel: http://www.gravel2008.us/issues.php
Rep. Dennis Kucinich: http://www.moveon.org/r?r=3139&id=&t=2
Sen. Barack Obama: http://www.barackobama.com/issues/energy/
Gov. Bill Richardson: http://www.richardsonforpresident.com/issues/energy

:: ::

Earlier Countdown diaries:
Countdown to $100 oil (51) - we'll never see 100mbd
Countdown to $100 oil (50) - it's no longer 'oil', it's 'liquids'
Countdown to $100 oil (49) - peak oil and libertarians
Countdown to $100 oil (48) - 85, 86, 87, 88, ...
Countdown to $100 oil (47) - Malthus, Mein Kampf and ostriches
Countdown to $100 oil (46) - what's a dollar worth?
Countdown to $100 oil (45) - time to bet again (eurotrib)
Countdown to $100 oil (45) - time to bet again (DailyKos)
Countdown to $100 oil (44) - oil industry admits it cannot save us
Countdown to $100 oil (43) - IEA boss denies and confirms peak oil in same breath
Countdown to $100 oil (42) - IEA predicts shortages within 5 years
Countdown to $100 oil (41) - oil more expensive than it appears
Countdown to $100 oil (40) - Undulating plateau
Countdown to $100 oil (39) - BigOil running out of oil
Countdown to $100 oil (38) - Who gets Champagne edition
Countdown to $100 oil (37) - OPEC says peak oil (and $100 oil) is near
Countdown to $100 oil (36) - Free game! win champagne! no risk! (eurotrib)
Countdown to $100 oil (36) - Free game! win champagne! no risk! (DailyKos)
Countdown to $100 oil (35) - peak oil: the last skeptics capitulate (CERA)
Countdown to $100 oil (34) - Oil major CEO calls for demand reduction
Countdown to $100 oil (33) - Below zero
Countdown to $100 oil (32) - peak oil is, like, so over. Not!
Countdown to $100 oil (31) - $15 oil? The cornucopians are fighting back
Countdown to $100 oil (30) - senior politico fears looming oil wars
Countdown to $100 oil (29) - Alaska joins axis of evil (unreliable oil suppliers)
Countdown to $100 oil (28) - New records suggest more to come
Countdown to $100 oil (27) - 'Mission Accomplished' - High oil prices are here to stay
Countdown to $100 oil (26) - Time to bet again (eurotrib)
Countdown to $100 oil (26) - Time to bet again (dKos)
Countdown to $100 oil (25) - Iran vows that oil prices will not go down
Countdown to $100 oil (24) - What markets are telling us about future energy prices
Countdown to $100 oil (23) - Running out of natural gas in North America
Countdown to 100$ oil (22) - gas shortages in the UK - 240$/boe
Countdown to $100 oil (21A) - The 4 biggest oil fields in the world are in decline *
Countdown to 100$ oil (21bis) - long term vs short term worries (dKos)
Countdown to 100$ oil (21) - 8-page extravaganza in the Independent: 'we're doomed'
Countdown to 100$ oil (20) - Meteor Blades is Da Man in 2005
Countdown to 100$ oil (19) - Your bets for 2006 (Eurotrib)
Countdown to 100$ oil (19) - Your bets for 2006 (DailyKos)
Countdown to 100$ oil (18) - OPEC happy with oil above 50$
Countdown to 100$ oil (17) - Does it matter politically? A naked appeal for your support
Countdown to 100$ oil (16) - We'll know on Monday
Countdown to 100$ oil (15) - the impact on your electricity bill
Countdown to 100$ oil (14) - Greenspan acknoweldges peak oil
Countdown to 100$ oil (13) - Katrina strikes / refinery crisis
Countdown to 100$ oil (12) - Al-Qaeda, oil and Asian financial centers
Countdown to 100$ oil (11) - it's Greenspan's fault!
Countdown to 100$ oil (10) - Simmons says 300$ soon - and more
Countdown to 100$ oil (9) - I am taking bets (eurotrib)
Countdown to 100$ oil (9) - I am taking bets (dKos)
Countdown to 100$ oil (8) - just raw data
Countdown to 100$ oil (7) - a smart solution: the bike
Countdown to 100$ oil (6) - and the loser is ... Africa
Countdown to 100$ oil (5) - OPEC inexorably raises floor price
Countdown to 100$ oil (4) - WSJ wingnuts vs China
Countdown to 100$ oil (3) - industry is beginning to suffer
Countdown to 100$ oil (2) - the views of the elites on peak oil
Countdown to 100$ oil (1) (eurotrib)
Countdown to 100$ oil (1) (dKos)
* added to the series after the fact

Display:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/11/6/152240/963

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2007 at 04:40:17 PM EST
Matt Simmons predicted $300 oil, by the way.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Nov 6th, 2007 at 05:26:16 PM EST
Which will equate by then to 100 Euro's per barrel....

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson
by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Tue Nov 6th, 2007 at 05:28:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Stop it. I'm laughing too hard.

Maybe we should do a countdown to $8/gallon gasoline. Heh, that'll cause a revolution. Probably the wrong kind, though.

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Tue Nov 6th, 2007 at 06:27:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
petrol in the UK is $6/gal US equiv, yes?

yet UK SUV (Chelsea Tractor) sales were increasing when last I looked.  hopefully that trend is about to reverse bigtime.


The difference between theory and practise in practise ...

by DeAnander (de_at_daclarke_dot_org) on Wed Nov 7th, 2007 at 02:20:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
More like $9 I'd guess.

Remember taxes and £1=2$

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Wed Nov 7th, 2007 at 02:36:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
$8.38 at my local police station, also have to remember the US miniature gallon

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2007 at 03:07:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
have to remember not to wwrite these things while only just woken up and listening to the news. That's petrol station not police.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2007 at 03:08:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's petrol station not police.

They may be housed in the same facility soon enough.

by Ralph on Wed Nov 7th, 2007 at 04:10:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Meh. I remember as a kid when gas went up relentlessly from less than 1FF/litre (pretty much 1$/gal) to 5FF/litre in the late 70s early 80s. When it breached 3FF/l, people said that at 5FF/l, there would be a revolution.

Well, 5FF/l came, and nthere was no revolution. You had lots of ads for cars able to get to 5l/100km, an important fuel efficiency standard then (equaivent to just under 50MPG), and then that slowly disappeared as prices stabilised and people got used to them (the government smartly increasing taxes when oil itself went down, so that at least the nominal price of gas never went down, even if the real one did)

People will pay 8$/gal, and after a few months they won't even mind anymore. People need their cars.

Which brings me, as usual, to how high the oil price can go - and the answer is - high enough to cause so much pain that people will actually spend 2 hours waiting for a crappy bus rather than pay for gas - and that's a LOT higher than today's prices.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2007 at 04:39:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Indeed. For a measure of what would be beyond a West European car driver pain limit, the Fundis among the German Greens once wanted 5DM/l gas. That would be €2.56 and around $14/US gallon today, for which, assuming constant refinery margin and tax content (which I know aint' true), you'd need c. $450/barrel oil at 1€=1.45$ -- and $550/barrel oil in the US.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Nov 7th, 2007 at 05:03:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course, the early 80's were a time of strong inflation too in France, so that the 400% increase wasn't that big in real terms... (And wages were still indexed to inflation at the time, weren't they ?)

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misθres
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2007 at 05:58:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Was more refering to his 3:1 USD:EUR exchange rate than to the price of oil. Of course, if there's that kind of exchange rate, a lot more than gasloine will cost more money; for one thing, the PRC will have had to force a devaluation of the USD viz. CNY (and probably JPY as well, which is just as undervalued and for a much longer time horizon against USD) in order for USD:EUR to approach that level of exchange.

And I was laughing with Chris, not at his assertion, in case I expressed myself unclearly on that score as well (which my wife will tell I do all the time).

All this being said, and agreeing on the fundamental demand inelasticity , or at the very least, extreme stickiness, that you describe, one could take the role of devil's advocate as regards the impact, on US public opinion, of severe shocks of energy inflation. First, unlike France, where 60% of household energy use is electricity, overwhelmingly produced by nuclear energy, in the US, household energy use is heavily weighted to gas and oil (roughly half of household energy use in the US being for home heating, virtually all of which is gas and oil, in addition to which roughly a quarter of electricity generation is from gas and oil). So, when oil prices go up, it's not just the price at the pump which goes up. People get cold and the poor go hungry in order to pay their heating bill as well.

Further, and this is far from a myth, the automobile plays a different role in the citizen psyche in the US than in the EU. This is of course a generalization, but it's not for nothing that as soon as people get scared of being attacked by a terr'ist, they started driving around tanks which get 16l/100. Tax incentives also play a part, but it isn't just tax policy, the automobile is much more an extension of one's personal space in the US than in the EU, where it is more seen primarily for its utility. I know this sounds crazy, but it is what it is, and people don't like it when their private space is being screwed around with, or they can't afford their private space anymore.

Finally, there's virtually no public transport to speak of in the majority of the US outside the eastern seaboard, so that's simply not an option. Further accentuates the inelasticity by removing a potential substitute good, further increasing the likelihood of pain on the individual consumer.

So while I agree with you on the inelasticity/stickiness aspect of what you are saying, it's far from obvious that on this subject Americans will be as stoic as Europeans were when the '70's oil shocks hit and EU governments began to responsibly price externalities into the consumer price for petrol. In fact, there's a real good negative correlation between gaz prices and approval of Dubya. Americans are just fine with torture, an illegal war killing thousands of innocents, a whole city lost to global warming, and the median income stagating while the rich get immensely richer. But fuck with their gasoline, and be prepared to pay the price.

Of course, that price would be simply an expression of disapproval, which is about as active as the average American gets these days in registering protest.

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Wed Nov 7th, 2007 at 12:37:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... high enough to cause so much pain that people will actually spend 2 hours waiting for a crappy bus rather than pay for gas...

Whatever price level oil might have to reach to produce that effect, maybe the bus won't be so crappy after all. The bus company should then (finally!) be able to make a profit by pricing their service below the cost of private driving, yet above their actual operating costs. That means acquiring energy-efficient buses, running reliably and on time, hiring good drivers, and so forth. It sounds pretty good to me!

Buses, specifically, should have a bright future in the U.S., where large numbers of people live in far-flung places with no rail service. There is really no other way to transport those people.

Some entrepreneur will probably come up with a fancier, more impressive vehicle which is no longer called a bus -- maybe an Air Pavilion or something -- but which amounts to the same thing without such a steep fall in status.

by Ralph on Wed Nov 7th, 2007 at 03:41:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Soon $99...

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Wed Nov 7th, 2007 at 04:39:40 AM EST


In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2007 at 04:40:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
$98.58 was reached today.

$100 will be reached very soon, and I guess you'll write a very special diary here and on dKos. Would you want to use updated versions of some of my oil in dollars/Euros/ECU/DEM graphs? I'll update them as soon as the US Department of Energy publishes its latest numbers today.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Nov 7th, 2007 at 05:38:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I certainly can't say with any certainty how much impact rank speculation has on the price of oil.  It does, however, strain credulity that any time oil goes up at all, the talking heads can talk about nothing but speculation, 'fear premium', geopolitical risks...anything except maybe oil is justified in becoming dearer.  This apparently never happens, at least not until the new price level is established for four or five months.  This sort of thing does not happen with any other commodity.  It's as if oil is the only commodity that exists in anything less then a perfect market or is somehow the only game in town for big swinging dicks to make a buck off of
by bselig on Wed Nov 7th, 2007 at 04:40:15 AM EST
Wasn't there a chart of world oil supply and demand posted recently?

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2007 at 04:52:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah, got it!

Now a methodological question. How are the supply and demand calculated and how can they not be equal? Where does the mismatch come from?

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2007 at 04:54:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Storage and oil in transit innit?

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson
by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Wed Nov 7th, 2007 at 04:59:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So "supply" means "production" as demand is larger than supply.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2007 at 05:00:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I would be amazed if hedge funds weren't massively punting the market right now.

I believe that there is a significant risk of an energy market "discontinuity" that could cause major problems for energy clearing houses if all of these punters rush for an exit that isn't there.

Clearing Houses are under-capitalised for the actual risks that they take on IMHO, and constitute "single points of failure".

I guess they take the view that governments would step in and bail them out.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Wed Nov 7th, 2007 at 04:57:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This has all the appearance of a bubble. Short term prices and long term trends need to be thought of differently just like there is a distinction between weather and climate.

Fossil energy sources will trend upward for some number of decades if present consumption and production trends continue, but there will be ups and downs along the way.

At some point in the near future the warring factions within Iraq will decide that they would rather have a piece of the oil pie and stop fighting. This will be followed by development of the oil resources and, eventually, an oil glut. We will also see some behavioral changes.

High fuel prices in the US will feed the recession which will lower demand for some time as well. I'm guessing that all those who are buying contracts at this moment won't be happy with their decision.

I look at just the behavior in a place like NYC and I can easily see many places where energy use could be cut with no impact on anything of importance. This includes simple things like reining in Christmas decorations, turning off office building lights at night and cutting down decorative illumination on bridges and buildings.

The NY Times killed a few trees this morning by publishing an extra section on energy savings. The advertisers are starting to show an interest in greenwashing, but actual change has not happened yet. It will.

Policies not Politics
---- Daily Landscape

by rdf (robert.feinman@gmail.com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2007 at 10:36:30 AM EST
This has all the appearance of a bubble

Sure it's a speculative bubble - hedge fund money has to go somewhere - but that's only part of the story. A significant piece of the price rise is due to the decline in the dollar.

This will be followed by development of the oil resources and, eventually, an oil glut.

This is wishful thinking, IMHO: you can forget oil gluts. Ever.

Sure the price will come off once the bubble is pricked, but in the medium and long term US demand is only a relatively small part of the big picture.

While I see the growth in Chinese and Indian demand slackening in a global recession, that's all it will do - their demand will continue to rise, but at a slower rate.

Any increased Iraqi production will only help to replace declining production in the mega fields elsewhere.


"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Wed Nov 7th, 2007 at 11:01:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

At some point in the near future the warring factions within Iraq will decide that they would rather have a piece of the oil pie and stop fighting. This will be followed by development of the oil resources and, eventually, an oil glut.

No way. Let's imagine that, indeed, all suddenly goes well, Iraq becomes peaceful, investment is made and production goes up. An extravagantly optimistic scenario would be Iraq's production jumping up by 4mb/d. That's 2.5 years of global demand increase, at current rates. Not quite enough for a "glut".

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2007 at 11:18:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well I think both of you are using a different meaning of the word "glut".

I mean that when conditions change over the short term, whether from Iraq coming on line or a recession or whatever there will be more supply than demand. This may be short lived, but it will be a "glut" at the moment.

Speculators don't care what happens after tomorrow, tomorrow is when they place their next bet.

We have a "glut" of ethanol in the US, even while we could actually be using more. Why? Local conditions - feedstock price rises, poor distribution facilities, over building in the short term and perhaps other factors.

Remember the oil companies have a vested interest in creating a "glut" when alternative fuels start to challenge their dominance. You can drive a small firm out of business relatively quickly by lowering prices below their cost of production. You don't even have to do it globally, just in the region in which they operate.

This technique is why we have seen little innovation over the past 50 years. Every time something appeared on the horizon (say electric cars) fuel prices suddenly dropped and the technology was abandoned.

I think we all agree on what will happen over the long term, but that doesn't mean things won't happen in counterintuitive ways along the way.


Policies not Politics
---- Daily Landscape

by rdf (robert.feinman@gmail.com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2007 at 12:02:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
On a hedge fund's time horizon, sure, there may well be a "glut".

The only question is whether the market will beat an orderly retreat or not.

No prizes for my view on that...

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Wed Nov 7th, 2007 at 12:49:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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