Obama is a very attractive person, very articulate, and I for one don't think his race will hurt his chances at all.  I know there are a number on this site who feel there is a lot of discrimination in the US, but I don't think there is--(I admit I've been mainly in California for close to 20 years, so maybe I'm overly influenced by that).  But when you look at the fact that in 2008, the US Secretary of State has been black, a woman, or both for something like 16 years (I know it's not elected), I think it shows attitudes are clearly accepting of all colors.

But Obama hasn't been vetted, has only had a national position for a few years, and my understanding is there are things in the closet.  But he's good at fessing up and saying I was wrong to do that,,,,rather than the normal political approach of denial, denial---oh yeahl, I did do that.  But he's a Kennedy, as in John, like personality--but unfortunately lacks the JFK track record.  

Hillary will have, IMHO, a huge problem in a general election, because her negatives are so high--a large % of Americans just won't vote for her,,according to the polls.  But she has got to be the heavy favorite for the ticket--though she shows propensity for big mistakes, imo.  The door could still open for Edwards or Gore, but I would see that as a pretty long shot.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a Hillary/Obama ticket,,,,versus a McCain/Giuliani,,,,,or outside shot of McCain/Condi.   The latter would certainly be an incredibly exciting and interesting race.

It's too bad the Dems don't have a stronger lead candidate, because like the 2006 election, this is one they should win, and of course they did win on '06----though once again, a lot can happen in 20 months.

Sticking my neck out: I don't think either Senators Clinton or Obama are going to get the nomination.  They are both going after the same block of primary voters which means neither will win the Winner-Take-All states.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

The Republican nomination is almost certainly for the right to lose the general election.  Historically the Republicans give a man "his turn" so it's very possible that we'll see McCain get the nomination.  Think of him as the Bob Dole candidate, too old but a loyal Senator who has no chance of winning.  Giuliani is too repulsive to the Republicans, has no foreign policy cred and has waaaay too many skeletons rattling in his closet to survive a general election.  I can see his as a very strong VP candidate, however.  McCain will need a younger, fresher face on his ticket and Rudy's popularity will go a long way in the less-scrutinized VP slot.

As for the Democrats their election is very early in 2008 which is the reason for the 'early' campaign that you are seeing.  The race for the Dem nomination will be mostly decided by March of 2008.

The current climate is one of name recognition and media hype.  The media has declared Hillary the front-runner for three reasons: 1. She is the most visible candidate in NY, where they are all based (she is Senator from NY).  2. She has the ability to raise money and already has done so.  For the mass media, who stand to earn this money, this is a great thing.  3. She has Bill Clinton and has been through this twice before with him.

All that said she's not going to be the nominee.  As the Obama and Giuliani hype is showing the electorate wants a fresh face.  Hillary is a good Senator and is not that popular amongst her own party.  The only way she can lock this one up is if nobody else worth voting for is running.  Her support of the Iraq war is a huge handicap.  She may have stood a better chance in previous years but with the shuffled Primary Election calendar California and other states will have more pull this time around.  These states will be more likely to hold her pro-war record against her.

In a very good field of candidates the Dems can't really lose no matter which candidate takes the nomination.  This will give them the opportunity to really scrutinize them and the issues will become more important as the year goes on.  Foreign Policy is going to be the top issue without a doubt and this will become more important as the year goes on and people begin to think about the mess that Bush has left us around the world.  For this reason I suspect that you will see Bill Richardson emerging as the top candidate for the Democratic Party and he will win it.

I see Obama running for Vice President and will probably be the VP candidate for someone like Richardson, depending on how he holds up for the rest of the year.  Thus far he appears to be a fantastic VP and is showing toughness with the media.  Like Giuliani he will be hurt in the top slot for his utter lack of FP knowledge but will be comfortable in the VP slot.

My early prediction is this:

Dems: Bill Richardson - Barack Obama, VP
Reps: John McCain - Rudy Giuliani, VP

Naturally this Dem ticket will kick the Rep ticket down the street nationally.

While to many it seems unlikely this far out I think the more you look into the candidates and the more you look down the road at the issues that will matter in 6-12 months it is clear that Bill Richardson is the strongest candidate the Democrats can run and that he is very much capable of winning the nomination.

The West will decide this election for the first time in US History.  It will be very different than the last two rounds.

For the Euro's, here are some details:

McCain is a veteran Senator from Arizona, in the Southwest bordering California and Mexico.  No sitting Senator has won the Presidency since 1960 (Kennedy).

Richardson is Governor of New Mexico, which borders Arizona and Mexico.  He has previously served as Secretary of Energy and is known for his diplomatics skills and achievements.  He was previously a Congressman from New Mexico.

Giuliani was mayor of New York City through 2002.  He presided over a major drop in crime and a perceived "clean up" of the city. NYC is viewed very differently now than it was before his term.

Obama is a first-term Senator from Illinois.  Previously he served in the Illinois state government.

The Mountain West has been an emerging powerbase for the Democratic Party and the West in general has been steadily increasing its political influence.  The 2006 elections revealed a strong increase in support for the Democrats that is likely to continue.

Another rising voting demographic is those of hispanic ethnicity.  Richardson's mother is from Mexico and he lived in Mexico City as a child.  

Richardson's natural support bases of hispanics and the western states combined with his superior Foreign Policy credentials and resume in general will be very difficult to beat in a Democratic primary in 2008.