by wchurchill
Fri Mar 2nd, 2007 at 07:24:29 PM EST
So Krugman has just issued his 9th forecast of a recession in the last four years. Did I miss something? Maybe there was a recession and I slept through it.
The great market meltdown of 2007 began exactly a year ago, with a 9 percent fall in the Shanghai market, followed by a 416-point slide in the Dow. But as in the previous global financial crisis, which began with the devaluation of Thailand's currency in the summer of 1997, it took many months before people realized how far the damage would spread.
He "dates" the article Feb 27, 2008 and tries to be tongue in cheek about his forecast. I honestly don't get it,,,,how does this guy call himself an economist, and how does he earn a living as a "forecaster". The Big Meltdown seems to be Paul Krugman!! Well I've disagreed with the last 8 recession forecasts, so there is no reason to change now. You're hearing it here for free, NO RECESSION! Here's the
link, but it's behind that Times Select wall that costs $7.95 per month to read it. I'm embarrassed to tell you I paid it because I needed a good laugh on a Friday afternoon. Don't do it, he's worthless.
I am a little surprised that housing prices are still rising in the US, though therate of increase slowed in the fourth quarter. I am not expecting the housing crash many of you have been forecasting, but I have been expecting the slowdown in sales we've been seeing for just under a year, and would have thought that would have shown some price falls--particularly given the torrid pace of housing price increases over the past several years.
U.S. HOUSE PRICE APPRECIATION RATE STEADIES
WASHINGTON, DC - The rate of home price appreciation in the U.S. remained steady
in the fourth quarter of 2006, extending a general trend of deceleration begun earlier in
the year. Home prices, based on repeat sales and refinancings, were 1.1 percent
higher in the fourth quarter than they were in the third quarter of 2006. This is slightly
above the revised growth estimate of 1.0 percent from the second to the third quarter.
Prices in the fourth quarter of 2006 were 5.9 percent higher than they were in the same
quarter in 2005.
Price appreciation in 2006 was substantially smaller than the tremendous price gains of
recent years, which ranged from 7.4 percent in 2002 to 13.2 percent in 2005. The figures
were released today by OFHEO Director James B. Lockhart, as part of the House Price
Index (HPI), a quarterly report analyzing housing price appreciation trends.
"These data show that, on the whole, prices are still rising, albeit at a much slower
pace," said Lockhart. "This suggests that house price appreciation is, for now, more in
line with historical norms."
House prices grew faster over the past year than did prices of non-housing goods and
services reflected in the Consumer Price Index. House prices rose 5.9 percent, while
prices of other goods and services, excluding shelter, rose 0.9 percent.
I still think we'll say a fall in the first half of this year. The only state to show an actual price fall was Michigan, where price declines were only 0.4%. I would have expected a bigger drop in Michigan since for the past 15 years the auto industry has been moving out and to southern states, in the form of Japanese and German auto factories.
