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French election early results thread

by Jerome a Paris Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 12:18:23 PM EST

Bring here all the information you can find! (Or email it to me).

The biggest piece of news so far is the record level for participation, officially at 73.87% at 5pm, 15% higher than in 2002. It could reach 87% altogether, possibly the highest ever recorded - and that with record numbers of people having registered on the voting lists.

See Why the French election matters to all progressives for background and context.
See Laurent Guerby's earlier thread for information on how voting went throughout the day

Update [2007-4-22 14:3:30 by Jerome a Paris]: First official estimates in French media:
Sarkozy: 29-30%
Royal: 25-26%
Bayrou: 16-17%
Le Pen: 11%


Update [2007-4-22 16:52:50 by Jerome a Paris]: As usual, my ability to make prognoses has been clouded by wishful thinking. I was pretty close on Royal (I gave her 24%) and Bayrou (I gave him 16 or 18%), but I move 10% from Sarkozy to Le Pen (I gave them both 21%). I guess I did not think his rightwards move would be taken quite so well. In a sense, it's good news, as Le Pen is down to less scary levels, and it means that Sarkozy will now have to fight his own extremist image. On the other hand, it does mean that the ideas of Le Pen has moved into the mainstream and towards increasing respectability.

All the candidates of the left have called to vote for Royal (which adds about 11% to her score), while no one has called to vote for Sarkozy. Beyond the hardcore Le Pen voters, the biggest chunk to conquer are the voters of Bayrou, whether because they are really centrists, or because they could not stand either of the big 2. There's certainly been more appeals to Bayrouists from the Royal supporters on TV than from the Sarkozy barons. We'll see.

Display:
I am very excited...and very nervous...

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 12:32:29 PM EST
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/4/22/122628/237

Please recommend so that it gets visibility. Maybe kossacks will have other sources of info; I'll bring over any interesting bits.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 12:33:00 PM EST
Bowers over at MyDD posted a story on the French election.  I've linked to ET from a comment there.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 02:51:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Some interesting early information can be found on Le Temps website

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
by Melanchthon on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 12:33:28 PM EST
So this is an early exit poll, right?

And for those who does not want to follow the link:


  1. Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP)    26-30 %
  2. Ségolène Royal (PS)        23-27 %
  3. Français Bayrou (UDF)    16-20 %
  4. Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN)    11-14 %


Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 12:38:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

  1. Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP)    26-27,5 %
  2. Ségolène Royal (PS)        26%
  3. Français Bayrou (UDF)    19 %
  4. Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN)    11-12 %


Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 12:49:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
update numbers from le temps:
  1. Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP) 26-27,5 %
  2. Ségolène Royal (PS) 26%
  3. Français Bayrou (UDF) 19 %
  4. Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN) 11-12 %
by someone (s0me1smail(a)gmail(d)com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 12:51:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Another update. Looking worse...
Candidats  Voix (selon LeTemps.ch)
  1. Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP) 30,3 %
  2. Ségolène Royal (PS) 25,8 %
  3. Français Bayrou (UDF) 17,7 %
  4. Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN) 10,7 %

by someone (s0me1smail(a)gmail(d)com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 01:02:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
i like it ;-)

Sarko has killed Lepen.

by fredouil (fredouil@gmailgmailgmail.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 01:05:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If people are reluctant to admit that they intend to vote for Lepen in pre-election polls, why do we assume that they will be any less reluctant to admit of doing so in the exit polls? What was the last elections exit-poll forecast for Lepen relative to his final (first round) result.

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 01:14:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
(18h50 ; chiffres de l'institut Ipsos sur la base de bulletins dépouillés)

Based on ballots picked up??

by someone (s0me1smail(a)gmail(d)com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 01:06:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, polling station that close at 18pm start counting immediately, it's all counted now in many places, results are just not "public" (not widely at least).
by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 01:19:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Would that be in places less inclined to vote for Royal?

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde
by NordicStorm (m<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 01:22:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Last results are big city results including Paris. See my very partial local results above (39% Royal :).
by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 04:23:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's Sofres apparently
They also have Besancenot as the first of the "smalls", with 4.5%

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 01:07:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's Sofres apparently

Yeah, yet they write "diverse institutes"...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 02:57:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Le Temps
Présidentielle française 2007: Ségolène Royal et Nicolas Sarkozy en tête
Les tendances
(19h15, msources: instituts de sondages)

    Candidats    
Voix (selon LeTemps.ch)
1.
    Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP)    
29,4 %
2.
    Ségolène Royal (PS)    
26,2 %
3.
    François Bayrou (UDF)    
18,6 %
4.
    Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN)    
10,8 %
5.
    Olivier Besancenot (LCR)    
4,7 %
6.
    Marie-George Buffet (PC)    
2,1 %
7.
    Philippe de Villiers (MPF)    
2,5 %
8.
    Arlette Laguiller (LO)    
1,5%
9.
    José Bové (Alter)    
1 %
10.
    Dominique Voynet (Verts)    
1,6 %
11.
    Gérard Schivardi (PT)    
0,4 %
12.
    Frédéric Nihous (CPNT)    
1,2 %
    Participation: env. 86 %    

Quel que soit l'institut de sondages, CSA, Sofres, Ipsos ou Ifop, c'est le duel entre le candidat de l'UMP Nicolas Sarkozy et la socialiste Ségolène Royal qui se dessine pour le 2e tour du 6 mai.



If you can't convince them, confuse them. (Harry S. Truman)
by brainwave on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 01:50:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sarkozy: 25-29%
Royal 25-26%
Bayrou 16-20%
Le Pen 13-18%

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 12:41:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How good is the assumption the Bayrou voters will gravitate towards Royal and the Le Pen voters to Sarkozy in the second round?


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 12:47:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Both electorates are likely to split. Le Pen voters will probably go half to Sarkozy, one quarter to Royal, the rest abstaining. Bayrou voters will be a lot closer to 50/50 (probably a bigger half going to Sarkozy). Royal then can count on all the other candidates of the left (the sum of their votes beng an important number, which is way too early to guess right now)

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 12:54:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So that would be a close win for Sarkozy.

Not good indeed.

I hope Royal has some campaign momentum left, because unfortunately it looks like she's going to need it.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 12:59:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
if she is close to Sarkozy, on high turnout, she'll have momentum, because she'll be higher than expectations and common wisdom put her, whereas Sarkozy will be somewhat below.

We need the info on what the rest of the pack is doing, Bayrou and Le Pen, obviously, but also all the others - including their relative positions.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 01:04:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]


BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Conservative Nicolas Sarkozy and Socialist Segolene Royal are set to contest a French presidential run-off after topping the first-round poll on Sunday, Belgium's Belga news agency said.

Belga quoted first projections which cannot be published in France by law until the last polling stations close at 1800 GMT (7 p.m. British time) as showing Sarkozy and Royal would go through.

Belgium's RTBF radio station said Sarkozy was slightly ahead in the first round.

by dwemer on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 12:40:14 PM EST

Selon les premières estimations des instituts de sondage CSA et SOFRES, Nicolas Sarkosy et Ségolène Royal obtiennent tous deux 26% de voix. Selon l'institut Ipsos, Ségolène Royal serait deuxième avec 26,5% et Nicolas Sarkosy premier avec 27,5%.


In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 12:45:53 PM EST
Bluewin News - Exit-Polls sehen Sarkozy und Royal an der Spitze

[sda] - Das geht aus Zahlen der Meinungsforschungsinstitute CSA und Ipsos hervor, die in Paris vorgelegt wurden. In Frankreich dürfen die Zahlen erst nach Schliessung der Wahllokale um 20.00 Uhr veröffentlicht werden. Bestätigen sich die Angaben, kommen Sarkozy und Royal in die Stichwahl vom 6. Mai.

Das Institut CSA erwartet für beide 26 Prozent. Der Rechtsextreme Jean-Marie Le Pen käme demnach auf 17 Prozent, der Zentrist François Bayrou auf 16 Prozent. Das Institut Ipsos sieht Sarkozy mit 27,5 Prozent vorne, gefolgt von Royal (26), Le Pen (17 %) und Bayrou (16 %).

The numbers are what CSA and Ipsos expects - looks like a head-to-head race.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 12:46:52 PM EST
Linear interpolation gives 87% participation:

http://ceteris-paribus.blogspot.com/2007/04/taux-de-participation-vers-les-85.html

(interesting graphics)

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 12:48:15 PM EST
Here's a question: can a person still sign up to vote between the first round and the second round? If yes, get out the vote!!

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 01:03:25 PM EST
To vote, you had to register before the end of last year.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 01:04:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"before the end of last year"
unfortunately for me
by fredouil (fredouil@gmailgmailgmail.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 01:07:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Fortunately for France? ;-)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 02:33:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
even with ;-), i find that quite insulting.
:-I
by fredouil (fredouil@gmailgmailgmail.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 05:53:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
On Freebox TV, RTR Planeta claims 30% for Sarkosy, 23% Royal, 16% Bayrou, 13% Le Pen.

I had Russian friends on the phone, they commented they just hoped the next President wouldn't turn away from Russia.

by balbuz on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 01:03:58 PM EST
Élection présidentielle 2007 - Sondage de la présidentielle - 22 avril
Résultats
1François Bayrou5495 votes30,8 %
2Ségolène Royal4825 votes27,1 %
3Nicolas Sarkozy3901 votes21,9 %
4Jean-Marie Le Pen1364 votes7,7 %
5Olivier Besancenot634 votes3,6 %
6José Bové365 votes2 %
7Marie-Georges Buffet347 votes1,9 %
8Gérard Schivardi297 votes1,7 %
9Philippe de Villiers255 votes1,4 %
10Dominique Voynet184 votes1 %
11Frédéric Nihous83 votes0,5 %
12Arlette Laguiller67 votes0,4 %

Nombre total de votes : 17817

Guess this is nothing offical, seems to be a poll, but still interesting.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 01:06:32 PM EST
Afin d'empêcher les tentatives de tricherie, nous avons décidé de limiter le programme de vote à 1 seul vote par adresse ip.
Nope, online voting, one vote per ip.
by someone (s0me1smail(a)gmail(d)com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 01:12:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
to Washington Monthly readers!

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 01:14:55 PM EST
24heures.ch
N. Sakozy: 26 à 30% S. Royal: 23 à 27% F. Bayrou: 16 à 20% J.-M. Le Pen: 11 à 14%
Notre site est actuellement surchargé!
Nous vous donnons les résultats récoltés par nos correspondants sur place!
Nous allons mettre à jour continuellement cette page.
Noting new result wise, but I like how all the Swiss sites are overloaded and are now putting up only the results.
by someone (s0me1smail(a)gmail(d)com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 01:22:24 PM EST
24heures.ch
Selon l'UDF      
N. Sakozy: 26% S. Royal: 23% F. Bayrou: 21% J.-M. Le Pen: 12%
       
Selon le QG PS      
N. Sakozy: 27% S. Royal: 26% F. Bayrou: 16% J.-M. Le Pen: 17%
       
Selon l'Institut Ipsos      
N. Sakozy: 27,5% S. Royal: 26% F. Bayrou: 16% J.-M. Le Pen: 17%
by someone (s0me1smail(a)gmail(d)com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 01:26:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Anyone getting a good stream off of any of the tv networks' sites? LCI is getting hammered.
by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 01:37:34 PM EST
Swiss TV TSR1 has: (from where??)
Sarko29.15%
Sego26.2%
Bayrou18.6%
Le Pen10.8%
Besancenot4.7%
by someone (s0me1smail(a)gmail(d)com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 01:39:37 PM EST
At the moment, the prominent photo on the NY Times Web site (top center) is of Royal.

A bomb, H bomb, Minuteman / The names get more attractive / The decisions are made by NATO / The press call it British opinion -- The Three Johns
by Alexander on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 01:40:23 PM EST
I'm off to the polling station to help counting the votes. I like it: it's seeing democracy at work...

See you later.

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 01:46:48 PM EST
We did count 300 enveloppes at my table in 75002 PARIS :

  • 117 Royal 39%
  • 78 Sarkozy 26%
  • 73 Bayrou 24.3%
  • 13 Le pen 4.3%
  • 17 others 5.7%
  • 2 two "blanc" votes (empty enveloppe) 0.6%

Participation is above 85% I'd say.
by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 03:50:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This isn't making sense.  

Granted we haven't got any hard information but the exit polling is too much in accordance with the pre-election polls - which didn't predict the large turnout.

So either the banileus (sp?) is voting for Sakozy or the polling models are wrong.
 

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 01:59:25 PM EST
Charitably, perhaps the 'I'm not telling you' effect was overestimated. And the undecideds broke in similar numbers to the decideds and declareds.

Uncharitably - who knows? It's a good point. Perhaps they're just re-quoting the polls and not doing proper exit vote counting at all. (Although I wouldn't guess that was very likely.)

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 02:06:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Brain went faster than my fingers.  Make that "exit poll models."

On the other hand, if it turns-out I'm right I promise to be insufferable for the next 2 weeks.  ;-)

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 02:13:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
TV reporting
Sarkozy - 29.5

Sego - 26

Bayrou 18

Le Pen 11.5

Others: 11

That sounds like good math for SEgolene

by paving on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 02:03:22 PM EST
These #s include the DOM-TOM so the trend will be less favorable to the left as teh returns come in than in past years.
by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 02:04:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
LePen's low #, if it holds up, is very good news for Royal; it means there's a very limited # of votes for Sarko to pick up to his right and the competition will be for the center.
by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 02:03:24 PM EST
Yes, I have no way of reading the early results in terms of precincts reporting but It would seem that if the leftwing soup candidates outpoll Le Pen that this is very good news for Royal in a second round.

I also think keeping Sarkozy under 30% is valuable and Segolene over 25%.  If He hits 30 and she slips to 24 the spin will try to be "Sarko strength" whereas with these numbers it seems obvious that Royal has sustained her support and has great potential to assemble a winning coalition.  

Can anyone imagine Royal losing significant votes by reaching out to the left party voters?  Aside from changing her campaign song to L'Internationale I don't think she'll be able to offend her base by appeasing the left.

Sarko faces a difficult task of trying to get 11 percent racist voters whose candidate is blatantly against Sarkozy.  I suspect he will move center, which will fail because he has many comments from past months that can be thrown in his face showing his, uh, Le Pen-esque tendency.

by paving on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 02:10:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Damn right wing country.

Sarkozy captured the Le Pen vote.

Now, are Bayrou voters willing to vote Royal or Sarkozy?

That's the real question. If half go right wing, Sarkozy's president.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 02:22:06 PM EST
is to the right of Sarkozy?

Have Keyboard. Will Travel. :)
by cskendrick (cs ke nd ri c k @h ot m ail dot c om) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 02:25:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
de Villiers is a traditionalist conservative
Nihous is harder to position - he defends "rurality" and hunting, but probably his electorate is on the right.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 02:32:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He captured the soft Le Pen vote (5%) but not that hard Le Pen vote (11-12%).  What kind of gymnastics would he have to do to capture them now?  It will be more important for him to reach out to Bayrou's voters, those voters who are must put-off by Sarkozy's right-wing leaning.  

Based on the speech I'm watching I'd say Sarozy will spend the next two weeks "acting Presidential" but fortunately I doubt he can keep the act up for two solid weeks.

Also, his backdrop looks like an ad for mood-disorder pharmaceuticals.

by paving on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 02:32:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The French guest expert at the German TV channel "Phoenix" is just a tiny bit skeptical. Saying that in the election till today, Sarkozy (obviously) successfully went after potential Le Pen voters. And that he now really needs to recalibrate his campaign and go for the center while not losing the right. Mind you, he doesn´t say that this is impossible. He´s just saying that this will require some really fancy foot-work.
by Detlef (Detlef1961_at_yahoo_dot_de) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 02:36:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I am confused here.

What are these exit polls based on: polling of voters leaving the ballot, or the count of precints closing early and counting fast? If the former, the hiding Le Pen voter effect still counts. If the latter, I think the rural voters first effect counts.

It would be really useful if someone could find the early exit polls of the 2002 elections.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 02:38:04 PM EST
http://www.election-politique.com/

IIRC, it is polling of voters leaving the ballot.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 02:43:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If so, it'll be a long night before we have an idea of the real result.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 02:56:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Turns up its nose at the Nicholas Bourbaki candidacy.

André Weil for Prime Minister.

 

by citizen k (sansracine yahoo.fr) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 02:39:23 PM EST
As the french elections seem to be consuming all energies I just thought I'd men tion that the British Holy of Holies was invaded last night and , guess what, nothing much changed.

A female commentator was the voice of one of the matches on Match of the Day, the saturday football highlights programme. It's odd isn't it ? We have women reading the news, women giving out the weather and on each occasion when it's the first time all the fuddy-duddies want to pretend it's the end of the world, that a woman cannot have the gravitas, the authority to do such important work. Women are, after all, really fluffy creatures who just aren't fully adult are they ? And well, sports is a bloke-thing isn't it ?

So stand by for a lot of noise for a week and then silence.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 02:43:07 PM EST
Suivez la soirée de l'élection, heure par heure
20H30. Nicolas Sarkozy : "Je souhaite que ce débat du second tour soit un débat d'idées. Les Français l'attendent depuis trop longtemps", assure le candidat de l'UMP. "Je ne souhaite qu'une chose rassembler : le peuple français autour d'un nouveau rêve français, celui d'une république fraternelle".

Sarko sez: "I wish that the debate of the second round will be a debate of ideas. [Hypocrite] The French have waited for too long [not for you] I don't want one thing to be forgotten: the French people want a new French dream, that of a fraternal republic [bnut not with the cités I guess]"

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 02:46:59 PM EST
DSK (Socialist elephant from the soc-dem, within that party right of center, platform) delcared that victory is still possible if their candidate focuses on "renewal".

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 02:52:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Good to see he plans to be a uniter and not a divider.

</le snark>

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 02:52:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Green candidate Voynet already called on Green voters to support Ségo in the second round, what's more, she also called for a Sixth Republic, an idea espoused by Royal.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 02:53:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm having trouble with my stream but I thought I heard LAguillier also call for a vote against Sarkozy; not that it will influence many people but it might indicate a real determination to rally against him rather than just express discontent with the PS.
by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 02:55:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Libé just wrote the same. I can't remember, which Trots were generally against and which were for a vote for the PS candidate in the second round? I seem to remember just Laguiller's bunch was against.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 03:03:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
has indeed always been the hardcore 'let things get worse so that revolution comes faster" kind. It's pretty unexpected to see her call so explicitly for Royal. Interesting.

Note that de Villiers has already stated that he did NOT call his voters to go for Sarkozy.

Le Pen of course, has stated that his voters are "not for sale" and will not call for anyone.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 03:14:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Voynet, Buffer (communists) and Laguiller have called for Royal. In the case of Laguiller, it's the first time ever she does that. In 2002, she did not even call for a vote in the second round.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 03:11:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, "Phoenix" mentioned that in his speech this evening  he spent some time talking about "French identity"? And speculating that he wants to secure the Le Pen vote first? Before going for the center?
by Detlef (Detlef1961_at_yahoo_dot_de) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 02:53:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
All the pundits have noted that "the (2nd round) election will play out in the center".

Sarkozy did too, apparently...

by Bernard on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 02:56:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
For the communists (whose candidate is projected to get only 2%), writer Shariyari Kazem said that this is a catastrophe, that the men are okay with Sarko. At the campaign center, the chant was: "Sarko, fascists, the people will get your skin"

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 03:01:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Royal praised the high participation. "You gave me a big responsibility, to carry on the fight for change", spoke about "the France of respect" [the non-Sarko France], and called for "ending a system that doesn't work". What does the latter mean?

Bayrou used some empty phrases, didn't call for the support of either advancing candidate, and also spoke about change.

All candidates are speaking about change.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 04:17:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Royal ... called for "ending a system that doesn't work". What does the latter mean?

Either a change in the electoral system or "the Sixth Republic", I guess.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 04:25:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Current pollsters' projections of the difference between Royal and Sarkozy: 4.2% / 4.5% / 4.7% / 4.8%

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 03:05:50 PM EST
Official partial results from the ministry of interior:

Sarko 30.45%
Royal 24.52%
Bayrou 18.32%
Le Pen 11.42%

...at 53.71% of ballots opened.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 03:09:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Lost in the Time Zone, here.

Has voting ended nation wide?


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 03:16:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It ended 1 hour 20 minutes ago.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 03:20:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sum of 6 left-of-PS candidates (Greens, Communists, Bové, Trots): 11.05%
Sum of 3 right-of-Sarko candidates: 15.66%

One would really hope that half of Le Pen's voters go home or vote Ségo...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 03:16:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This narrowed to 11.1%:15.56%.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 03:25:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Le Pen's voters as part of the right like the "rest of the left" can be counted in the left. It really does not behave the same way.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 03:34:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So a core of Le Pen's voters will swing the coalition to the Left and a victory for Sego?

That's going to be fun to watch. :)

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 03:37:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
are to a large extent disinfranchised blue collar voters. if they feel that Royal is listening to them, it's not absurd to see some of them coming back into the fold (Le Pen is strongest where the communist party used to be strong).

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 05:08:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I.e., working-class authoritarians. The middle-class authoritarians are already voting for Sarkozy.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 05:11:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Narrowing difference at 58.59 counted:

Sarko 30.39%
Royal 24.65%
Bayrou 18.30%
Le Pen 11.40%
Besancenot 4.37%

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 03:21:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I won't eat before printing the latest, at 63.52% partially counted:

Sarko 30.42%
Royal 24.73%
Bayrou 18.33%
Le Pen 11.34%
Besancenot 4.38%

Extremes: 11.07%:15.45%

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 03:36:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Small improvements, but the significant numbers (Sarko 30+, Royal 25-) won't improve much, unless the partial count is unrepresentative. 89.89% counted:

Sarko 30.46%
Royal 24.81%
Bayrou 18.31%
Le Pen 11.32%
Besancenot 4.37%

Non-mainstream to the left and right: 11.09%:15.33%

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 04:09:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That 89% must have been a typo, it must have been 69%! New results at 75.39% give some more hope, show Royal above 25%, Le Pen and other far-right loses steadily:

Sarko 30.50%
Royal 25.05%
Bayrou 18.34%
Le Pen 11.20%
Besancenot 4.35%

Non-mainstream to the left and right: 11.05%:15.07% (where I note in concert with Jérôme that Sarko can count much less on either the Le Pen or the Villiers vote than Royal can on any of the hared-to-far-left candidates')

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 04:57:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
...however, the first second-round poll says that 75% of Le Pen voters will go for Sarko. Bayrou's voters still divide evenly.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 04:59:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If the centrists really return to Ségo, NOW it's on the far-left to stop Sarko, it seems. But with the above numbers, it's not enough, they would just cancel out 75% of the Le Pen+Villiers+Nihous vote.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 05:02:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yet another update is in, 80.75%, Ségo is shooting up, but this time Sarko even more...

Sarko 30.70%
Royal 25.17%
Bayrou 18.40%
Le Pen 11.05%
Besancenot 4.29%

Non-mainstream to the left and right: 10.92%:14.81% (75% of the latter would be 11.1%)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 05:06:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
84.96% update:

Sarko 30.79%
Royal 25.33%
Bayrou 18.48%
Le Pen 10.88%
Besancenot 4.25%

Non-mainstream to the left and right: 10.85%:14.55% (75% of the latter would be 11.9%)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 05:21:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
90.33% update:

Sarko 30.94%
Royal 25.51%
Bayrou 18.51%
Le Pen 10.73%
Besancenot 4.19%

Non-mainstream to the left and right: 10.74%:14.30% (75% of the latter would be 10.7%; in the parent comment it should be 10.9)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 06:06:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
94.46% update - Sarko is beyond 31%, difference is down to 5.37%, Le Pen still slides fast but won't be under 10%:

Sarko 31.01%
Royal 25.64%
Bayrou 18.54%
Le Pen 10.63%
Besancenot 4.15%

Non-mainstream to the left and right: 10.70%:14.13% (75% of the latter would be 10.6%)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 06:32:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Soon it's over. 97.57% update, Sarko-Royal (now 5.31%) won't go under 5% either:

Sarko 31.06%
Royal 25.75%
Bayrou 18.53%
Le Pen 10.57%
Besancenot 4.13%

Non-mainstream to the left and right: 10.65%:14.01% (75% of the latter would be 10.5%)


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 06:49:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]


In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 04:27:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I still expect Sarko to win the presidency, but hope dies last. As many others pointed out, it will be about the center (Bayrou) voters in the next two weeks. If FN voters stay at home, it could still become a very, very tight race.

"If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles." Sun Tzu
by Turambar (sersguenda at hotmail com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 05:19:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
CSA has 29.5 to 26.3%

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 03:10:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
When? I see 30.6:25.9 on the page you linked. And Ipsos just updated to 30.4:25.0.

I think these are vote count estimates, no more exit polls.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 03:19:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
TNS Sofres now updated to 30.5%:25.7%, with an unchanged difference of 4.8%.

I'm now going to eat.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 03:32:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It looks like Sarkozy carried a lot of the DOM-TOM, which seems to me a disturbing development. Am I wrong that the overseas territories are usually relatively strongly to the left?
by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 03:19:20 PM EST
AFP, on the Libe graphical represenation of national results, currently has Sarkozy 35, Royal 32. That seems to be based on DOM-TOM + 6 metropolitan departments.
by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 03:21:25 PM EST
Newest Le Temps numbers have Sargo below 30% again.

LeTemps.ch

LT.ch - Dimanche 22.04, 21:30
FRANCE Selon diverses estimations, le second tour de l'élection présidentielle française verra s'affronter Nicolas Sarkozy pour l'UMP et Ségolène Royal pour le PS. François Bayrou est le troisième homme. Jean-Marie Le Pen est en net recul.
CandidatsVoix (rés. provisoires)
1.Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP)29,8 %
2.Ségolène Royal (PS)25,6 %
3.Français Bayrou (UDF)18,5 %
4.Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN)11,3 %
Tous les résultats
by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 03:31:27 PM EST
Whatever personal disappointments one might have about the results, here are 4 reasons why you should be happy:

  1. A woman gets as much as Mitterrand in '81 (who went on to win).

  2. The winner of the first round is NOT a graduate of ENA.

  3. Le Pen fades to black... good riddance.

  4. 85% turnout. (Bush got to the WH with a 55% turnout  -- which one is the "vibrant" democracy?)
by Bernard Chazelle (Bernard Chazelle) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 04:05:04 PM EST
for the second round:

Sarkozy: 54%
Royal: 46%

(done starting at 8:15pm, as related on France2)

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 04:13:17 PM EST
That's not encouraging at all. I hope that that poll is inaccurate for some reason, since an eight point lead would be hard to make up in two weeks.

A bomb, H bomb, Minuteman / The names get more attractive / The decisions are made by NATO / The press call it British opinion -- The Three Johns
by Alexander on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 04:21:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's pretty much in line with what Ipsos (the pollster) had before the election.

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde
by NordicStorm (m<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 04:45:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Indeed it's not. My take on it is:

Le Pen is out, but he has successfully moved the Overton window to the Right, and given Sarkozy a chance to unite centrists and extremists. Sarkozy can capture some of the Pen-ites by throwing them just enough red meat on immigration not to alarm the centrists, who will be happy to delude themselves that he's a not really a thug - especially given his strong media support. So he has a chance to unite the Right behind him. (Even if it's for spurious reasons - but then isn't it always?)

Royal's position is very weak. She's still the underdog and although she's done well, it's not well enough to put her over the top. The Left is always more fractious and disunited than the Right, and there will be far-Left elements who see her as indistinguishable from Sarkozy. Meanwhile, with her talk of change, she looks like an extremist to many of the centrists. She may get some of the Pen-ites, but I can't see her getting enough of them to win.

It's a very bad position for her to be in, because she doesn't have a strong and united base to rely on, and there's very little she can do in two weeks to build one. Sarko's foundations seem more solid at this point. It's his election to lose, rather than her's to win.

It's also a depressing replay of Gore vs Bush, where Bush won by being the good 'ole boy. Sarkozy and Bush are disturbingly similar.

If it were down to me, I would be speechifying and rallying like crazy to get out the left-wing vote on an anyone-but-Sarko basis.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 04:50:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I hadn't really been following this race until a few days ago. The current New Yorker has an article profiling the top three candidates (with all the obligatory talk about France being in "crisis", of course). It notes that Royal doesn't have the support of her own party, having gotten the nomination by passing by several "elephants" who have long wanted it.

A bomb, H bomb, Minuteman / The names get more attractive / The decisions are made by NATO / The press call it British opinion -- The Three Johns
by Alexander on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 05:02:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Bush lost the popular vote to Gore by a strong margin. Since France is so backward that it does not have the modern Electoral college system, it makes life more difficult for sarko.

Sarko has to disguise his nature - also I think he has a problem for not being ethnically french considering his constitutuency.

by citizen k (sansracine yahoo.fr) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 05:07:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Bush lost that election. It's admitted by everyone except right-wing nuts that if the Florida recount had been continued in all districts, and not just in those which Gore's people wanted to have a recount, Gore would have won. What Bush won was his case in the U.S. Supreme Court to stop the recount, with a decision that was clearly made on political and not legal grounds.

It really bothers me that the Western press still routinely writes about Bush's "winning" the 2000 election. That's just an instance of the special treatment that the U.S. routinely gets in the Western media. The U.S. is an "advanced" country, so it is a priori impossible for a candidate to be placed in the White House through the theft of an election.

A bomb, H bomb, Minuteman / The names get more attractive / The decisions are made by NATO / The press call it British opinion -- The Three Johns

by Alexander on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 05:16:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
An honest description of 2000 is that we had a judicial Coupe-de-Etat and have been ruled by a criminal junta since then.  Of course such honesties dare not be uttered in polite company or on corporate broadcast "news".
by Geonomist on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 09:29:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'd say that at this stage a poll as such is completely worthless.  Its just the beginning of the media's two-week campaign to portray Sarkozy's victory as inevitable.  Do not feed the trolls!

That said, anyone care to post on historical finishes in first round of french presidential elections and how they relate to the eventual winner?

by paving on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 05:27:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, this is what happened in the 1981 presidential election. In the first round, the incumbent Valéry Giscard d'Estaing got 28.33%, and François Mitterrand got 25.86%. In the second round, Mitterand got 51.76%, and d'Estaing got 48.24%.

According to the Wikipedia article, in that election, incumbency was a disadvantage, so I don't know whether one can draw any inferences from that election to this one.

A bomb, H bomb, Minuteman / The names get more attractive / The decisions are made by NATO / The press call it British opinion -- The Three Johns

by Alexander on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 05:58:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In the 1995 election, the socialist candidate Lionel Jospin got 23.30% and Chirac got 20.84% in the first round, but Chirac won the second round, 52.64% against 47.36%. In this case, the incumbent was Mitterand, which is analogous to this election.

So that's two cases in which the candidate who comes in second in the first round wins the second round.

A bomb, H bomb, Minuteman / The names get more attractive / The decisions are made by NATO / The press call it British opinion -- The Three Johns

by Alexander on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 06:07:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Final vote count, according to Libé, 23% counted:

Sarko 29.68%
Royal 27.43%
Bayrou 18.40%
Le Pen 9.71%
Besancenot 4.17%

Neither Paris & surrounding regions nor Southeast reporting yet.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 04:20:36 PM EST
I find that Sarko and Le Pen are particularly strong on the parts counted on  both sides of the Vosges and on Corsica. Is this strong right-wing tendency there a longer trend?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 04:23:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I remember reading about the conservative tendencies of Corsica some years ago.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 04:35:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Short answer for a simple question:
Yes.

La répartie est dans l'escalier. Elle revient de suite.
by lacordaire on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 04:59:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Blue : Chirac first
Brown: Le Pen first
Pink: Jospin first
Orange: hunters' candidate first

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 05:05:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks; in the meantime, I saw that in Guerby's thread.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 05:07:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hunter's candidate?

You have a normal feeling for a moment, then it passes. --More--
by tzt (tzt) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 05:54:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Now I get it. Libé made it a policy to only publish final counts, more precisely, final counts per département. So, now they are at 43%, with Sarko at 29.91% and Ségo at 26.34%. Of the results so far, I found it most interesting that Le Pen's votes are higher in the Northeast than the so far counted parts of the Southeast, with 17.00% in Haute-Marne the highest. Also, Villiers is double-digit solely in the Vendée (where he obviously took Le Pen's voters).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 05:17:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
57%, Sarko 29.71% to Ségo 25.80%. Bayrou topped the chart in Basque land (Pyrénées-Atlantiques). Still involves no results from around Paris, the Riviera, the environs of the Belgian brder, Lyons, and many others.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 06:11:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's 65% now, and 29.90%:25.72%, with only Paris, the Riviera, the surroundings of Strasbourg and Lyons, and 4-5 others remaining. So, was Paris as much pro-Sarko as the preliminary count in the other subthread shows, or the Riviera?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 06:25:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Forgot Aisne département (North of Paris) tops the Le Pen vote with 17.28%.

Southern Corsica (37.54% and Upper Savoy (37.47%) top the Sarko vote. Ariège (Pyrénées, South of Toulouse, probably includes afew) tops the Royal vote with 35.00%. Bayrou 'won' in Pyrénées-Atlantiques with 29.61%.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 06:41:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
PACA is right; in Ile de France, the suburban departments of the outer ring are Sarkozy strongholds; city of Paris will be for Royal (though not massively due to right-wing  strongholds in western half of the city). Greatest interest will be to see how big a margin Royal wins by in the former red-belt communes, which are what is usually meant by journalists referring to "banlieux."
by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 07:59:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
With 99 of 100(?) départements reporting, it stands:

Sarko 30.84%
Royal 25.98%
Bayrou 18.50%
Le Pen 10.71%
Besancon 4.23%

If that one remaining is Paris and goes to Royal as you say, good news.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 08:16:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No. Paris goes Sarko! And that 35.07% to Royal's 31.75%.

Barring some big campaign miralce, or a deal with Bayrou, I see President Sarko....

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 08:25:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How could anyone who was OK with Sarkozy have not chosen him in the first round?  There is nothing ambigious about his position.  I look forward to the debate which I feel will make a big difference in the outcome.  
by paving on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 10:56:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Paris is right wing : the mayor is PS only because the right wingers are very concentrated in the western arrondissement.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 02:34:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, I got that wrong in my comment upthread. I had hoped that the big turnout and strong anti-Sarko sentiment in the eastern arrondissements might have given her a plurality.

For the second round, Paris is a place where Royal is likely to pick up a larger share of Bayrou's vote, esp in the eastern arrondissements where he scored in the high teens.

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 03:00:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
BBC NEWS | World | Europe | France opts for left-right battle
27 April: Campaigning restarts 6 May: Second round poll 10 May: Final official results
by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 04:51:41 PM EST
Libé having fun (or not):



*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 05:12:56 PM EST
Via Le monde:


22 h 15 : Des militants UMP arrivent devant le QG de François Bayrou pour distribuer des tracts appelant à voter pour Nicolas Sarkozy. Le service d'ordre doit s'interposer pour éviter une bagarre générale.

UMP supporters come to the headquarters of Bayrou ti distribute pro Sarkozy material. Security services have to intervene to avoid a big fistfight...

I'm off now.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 05:24:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sarkozy, showing his true colors
by paving on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 05:30:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Why would this trigger a fistfight?

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 05:39:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
See Paving's comment above.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 05:50:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hmmm, I guess true democrats of the centre don't appreciate being button holed by supporters of a candidate who actively courted the far right, especially only hours after their candidate failed in his bid.

Tactless of the UMP especially considering the UDF has broken with them.

Most likely, the UDF will find more in common with the PS than the UMP.  Behind closed doors, could Royal / Hollande offer Bayrou the PM seat should the left fail to take control of parliament in June?

Consider a Sarkozy victory and a right wing assembly, Sarkozy's unlikely to offer anything to Bayrou who allied himself with the PS against the UMP in a no confidence vote against de Villepin's UMP government concerning Clearstream.

Ipsos , two weeks ago also gauged that Bayrou was taking more votes from the centre-left than the centre-right.

If Segolene wins that would make her the first woman to govern France since Anne of Austria (I think) who with the aid of her able minister Mazarin put down the Fronde.  Could Bayrou be the Mazarin of our times?

by kagaka (karel.k.rehor [zav] email [tecka] cz) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 06:19:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How sure are you in Bayrou voters following his call?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 06:27:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
According to television TF1, there will be a televised debate between Royal and Sarkozy.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 05:44:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In Portugal in the mean time, the news are starting to switch from the results to the projections for the second  round, giving the victory to Snarkozy...
by Torres on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 09:03:25 PM EST


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