French election official results thread

by Jerome a Paris Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 03:04:10 AM EST

These seem to be the final official results:

Anectodal info suggests that a lot of people seem to dislike Royal more than they fear Sarkozy. Two weeks to change this perception...

French election official results thread | 49 comments (49 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: French election official results thread (none / 1)

Thanks for this Jerome! Two weeks to get out the vote!

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia

by whataboutbob on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 03:11:47 AM EST

Re: French election official results thread (none / 1)

As I've said before, and I'll say it again: "the only way for Royal to win is to get Bayrou to support her." If not, say hello to President Sarkozy.

Hey, Grandma Moses started late!

by LEP on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 03:13:17 AM EST

Re: French election official results thread (none / 1)

If Sarkozy get 60% of Le Pen, 40% of Bayrou, 50% of de Villiers, 100% of Nihous, and if Royal get's 20% of Le Pen, 60% of Bayrou and 100% of the left/greens, and the remainder of Le Pen and de Villiers stay home, it would give Royal 50.5% to Sarkozy 49.5%. Can this be done?

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde

by NordicStorm (m<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 03:24:11 AM EST

Re: French election official results thread (4.00 / 2)

I think that's unlikely. According to Melanchthon:

a poll says only 39% of them will vote Sarko, 45% Sego and 16% undecided...

I doubt all of those 16% could be brought over to Royal. If those 16% stay home, this will reduce the presently 5.28percentage points Sarko-Ségo difference only to 4.17pp, and I'd expect the rest (10.62% vs. 13.90%, with more staying home or voting across of the latter) to bring a change of at most around 1pp. Altogether, that would give a second round result of 51.6% Sarko vs. 48.4% Royal...

The PS should attack on a wider front for new voters/resp. to scare voters away from Sarko.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 03:47:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: French election official results thread (none / 0)

Foreign-resident voters still outstanding.

The results of your 16th district show a Sarko landslide:

M. Olivier BESANCENOT	499	0,63
Mme Marie-George BUFFET	214	0,27
M. Gérard SCHIVARDI	33	0,04
M. François BAYROU	13 077	16,43
M. José BOVÉ	374	0,47
Mme Dominique VOYNET	553	0,69
M. Philippe de VILLIERS	1 056	1,33
Mme Ségolène ROYAL	8 973	11,27
M. Frédéric NIHOUS	196	0,25
M. Jean-Marie LE PEN	3 530	4,43
Mme Arlette LAGUILLER	139	0,17
M. Nicolas SARKOZY	50 958	64,02

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 03:28:40 AM EST

Paris (4.00 / 3)

Le Pen below 5% throughout Paris is good. Sarkozy beating Royal 35% to 31% is less good for her. We'll see where the Bayrouistes will go.

A poll apparently splits the Bayrou vote (nationally) as follows (CSA, no direct link, but a mention in afoe):

16% unsure
45% Royal
39% Sarkozy

Which is pretty good.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 03:46:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Nevertheless, CSA has Sarko (4.00 / 2)

beating Sego 53.5% to 46.5%. Here are four post-first-round polls. The best Sego does is losing by four, in BVA. You said above people don't like her, or dislike her more than they fear Sarko. Is that literally about the candidate, or is it about the program, or the party? What can Sego do to turn this thing around?

If you can't convince them, confuse them. (Harry S. Truman)

by brainwave on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 08:51:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

How Ségolène could win (4.00 / 5)

First, Bayrou himself will not support Ségolène Royal: it would jeopardise his project aiming at building a new centrist party.

The question is: how to attract enough Bayrou voters? A significant number of them are left leaning voters who are fed up with the incapacity of the Socialist Party to quit its old "Guesdiste" (or "Molletiste") culture (i.e. holding a hard-left quasi-Marxist line while in opposition and implementing pragmatic pro-market policies when in power) for a new social-democrat (not Blairite!) approach of well-regulated market economy including an important role for unions and social dialogue, the empowerment of stakeholders and the development of social economy.

Another part of Bayrou voters is the traditional Christian Democrats who do not agree with the authoritarian and liberal ideology of Sarkozy, but not enough to join a "non-modernised" Socialist Party.

Both groups are also looking forward to a modernisation of the French institutions.

For both these groups, an "Everything but Sarkozy" strategy is not enough and doomed to fail. Even if there are parts of her program with which they might agree, other parts are, in their view, contradictory and they do not trust Ségolène enough to adopt a really new approach.

Therefore, she needs to give a clear and strong sign of her commitment to a social-democrat orientation. The only way I see she could do it is by announcing who she would name Prime Minister in case of a left-wing victory in the parliamentary elections.

She has several possibilities. Jacques Delors and Michel Rocard can be effectively used in the campaign, but they are too old for being a PM. Dominique Strauss-Kahn would be the best, but I doubt Ségolène would chose him because of their rivalry. Bernard Kouchner is very popular, but his economical skills are not well established. I think Pascal Lamy (current Director General of WTO), an important Socialist Party member, but not an elephant, could make a good candidate for PM and convince Bayrou voters.

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 12:32:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Ségolène could win (4.00 / 2)

she needs to give a clear and strong sign of her commitment to a social-democrat orientation

Agreed, but she needs to make clear that this orientation begins and remains committed fundamentally to an impartial state based on transparent and vibrant democracy. That is where there is the most space between Bayrou's voter and Sarko. That can't be addressed just by naming a PM (although I agree thats a good strategy). Ithink it means

>rule of law; the rampant corruption of the RPR and UMP, especially in the Parisian region, is something that Sarkozy is deeply implicated in personally and this has been largely absent from the campaign. She could put Sarko on the defensive by calling for him to engage in the sort of "droit d'inventaire" that Jospin did for the PS -- she should demand Sarko agree now not to pardon Chirac or any other RPR/UMP figue for past crimes. Why as Interior Minister did he look the other way for nearly 5 years as these investigations into everything from RPR housing scandal to Clearstream ground down.

>likewise, a crackdown on white-collar crime, including illegally hidden executive compensation. Every appearance should call on Sarkozy to explain why as Finance Minister he did nothing about those golden parachutes that he now opposes.

>reform of institutions. Beginning with independence of the judiciary but also to enhance the voice of the people, one of her major early themes. Greater power for the Parliament, more direct consultation of the people at local level. A good example that she alluded to on Sunday night -- no major EU agreement without consent of the people, nothing ratified by Parlement "dans le dos du peuple". She should announce an impartial figure to serve as a "Ministre sans portefeuille pour s'occuper de la reforme institutionelle", or something more feliticous sounding. This should include campaign and party financing; challenge Sarkozy to reveal UMP financing now before the election.

>as President, more attention to effective diplomacy on the world stage. Promise to appoint a cabinet-level ambassador to the UN (akin to the minister for EU affairs); make clear this person's job will be to provide an effective international counterweight to Washington. In short, if the incumbent government had been more effective in 2003, France could have stopped the war. Villepin was poetic but ineffective; where was Sarkozy?

In short, reform vs corruption. Its at the heart of why everyone on the left hates Sarkozy; its at the heart of why Bayrou had such appeal; its at the heart of what the Republic is about.

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 12:50:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Ségolène could win (none / 1)

I hasten to add she should be clear that this house-cleaning will apply to the PS as well -- and thus she can propose a reform of her party as well that will build on the reforms since 02, making it easier to join and more transparent in its internal functioning.

She worked hard to give people a renewed PS candicacy; she'll work as just as hard to give them a new center-left party.

Make clear there will be opportunity for both a centrist wing and an "anti-liberal" wing of this new party; the new party will be a space for vibrant and honest debate just as the new Republic must be.

Not merely a reshuffling of names among the same old elephants like the UMP proved to be.

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 12:54:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Ségolène could win (none / 1)

I agree with you. I think (I might be wrong) that number of these measures are already in her program (not the PS one!), or that she is not far from them. I was focusing on how she can convince Social-Democrats and Christian Democrats she will really transform the Socialist Party and commit herself to the necessary reforms (! ;-)), for example in the National Education system. It requires a very strong sign, and naming a potential PM would be one.

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 01:50:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Ségolène could win (none / 1)

Sure. My point is that she's done enough symbolic demonstrations and needs to emphasize what, as you point out, is in her program. I think a gesture like naming a PM will distract from that, and will undermine her most important point -- her independence from parties, factions, interests.

Plus naming a PM is the surest way to create more Eric Bressons, or at least bring out those who feel they've got a better chance for their own future by torpedoing her than by supporting her.

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 02:42:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Ségolène could win (none / 0)

I hope you guys have sent these ideas to Royal's campaign headquarters! They may know it, but they should be happy to hear confirmation from the public.

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.

by metavision on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 03:51:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Ségolène could win (none / 1)

This strategy could easily lose a significant part of the hard and far-left vote.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 01:46:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Ségolène could win (4.00 / 2)

I don't think so. For the far-left, the "Everything but Srakozy" criterion will work. In fact, all of the far-left candidates have already called their voters to support Ségolène, including, for the first time, Arlette Laguiller...

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 01:54:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Ségolène could win (none / 1)

I'm not sure it will work on all voters. And we are in a situation where one percent counts.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 01:55:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Ségolène could win (none / 1)

Yes, but without at least half of the Bayrou voters, Ségolène Royal can't win. Half of the Bayrou voters makes 9,27%. The total of far-left+greens voters makes 10,62%...

More generally, the left + the far left cannot make a majority in France, unless they attract centre-left voters.

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 03:00:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Ségolène could win (4.00 / 2)

Don't make the calculation without Bayrou and far-right voters going to Sarko. Even the hardly realistic case of 60% vs. 30% of first-round Bayrou voters going Ségo resp. Sarko will mean a relative difference of only 18.57*0.3=5.57 percentage points, putting Royal a mere quarter percent ahead without considering the non-mainstream voters, who on first approximation will balance each other out (expecting far-right voters to go Sarko with less consistency). Now what matters is the political prize of getting every additional percent of Bayrou voters to switch, and that goes up the further you push from the current 46%-39%.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 03:50:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Ségolène could win (4.00 / 2)

Arlette even said she is voting for Royal.

Incredible, but she's been making these noises since she was on 4 verites two months ago. I personally think she is overwhelmed and impressed at how far the political environment has come with respect to women's participation, that's how she sounds to me anyhow. After all, she was all alone in that wilderness for quite some time and she takes a little (rightful imho) pride in Royal's stature today.

A class move for a swan song.

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 11:08:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Ségolène could win (none / 1)

First, Bayrou himself will not support Ségolène Royal: it would jeopardise his project aiming at building a new centrist party.

How so? It would be supporting Sarkozy that would allow the UMP to swallow the UDF.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 06:30:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Ségolène could win (4.00 / 2)

Bayrou could think of two different strategies:

support Ségolène in order to benefit from the restructuring of the right which would follow Sarkozy's defeat (but its risky and it depends on the parliamentary elections results)
support no one and hope the defeat of the left will allow him to run successfully for presidency against Sarko in 2012

I think he will support none of them openly, except if, following Ségolène's call for a meeting, they build a centre-left coalition.

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 07:33:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Ségolène could win (none / 1)

What are the chances of Bayrou being PM or some high-ranking ministry if he supports Segolene?

Say, Sego President, DSK PM, Bayrou Minister of Foreign Affairs (and European Affairs).

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 09:45:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Ségolène could win (4.00 / 2)

I doubt he will accept to be a minister himself. He would probably prefer to have one of his UDF supporters named minister.

The main question is how the Socialist Party can facilitate the creation of the new party he would like to lead? That means negotiate constituencies...

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 10:19:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Ségolène could win (none / 1)

Of course, let's not forget that historically when the center and the left where allied pre-Fifth Republic, the centrist bailed out very early in the legislature. If there is a possibilty of a center and right wing majority, it would happen during the legislature.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 10:50:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Ségolène could win (none / 1)

the incapacity of the Socialist Party to quit its old "Guesdiste" (or "Molletiste") culture (i.e. holding a hard-left quasi-Marxist line while in opposition and implementing pragmatic pro-market policies when in power)

You just described the way European Socialist/Social Democratic parties everywhere have behaved in the past 15 years (if not longer). Good luck changing that.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 06:33:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Ségolène could win (none / 1)

You may say I'm a dreamer...

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 07:34:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: French election official results thread (4.00 / 3)

That's a good reason not to hold the ET Paris meet-up in the XVIth arrondissement...

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 06:53:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: French election official results thread (none / 1)

Participation is now put at 84.60% of registered voters (who from polls seem to be well over 90% of voting-age persons). This is just below the participation record in the first round since voting is not compulsory, the first such vote in 1965 (84.75%). The second round record is 85.85% however, from 1981. So maybe Royal should also focus on further mobilisation.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 03:56:22 AM EST

Re: French election official results thread (none / 1)

Sorry, the 2nd-round record is even higher, 87.33% fRom 1974, when Giscard d'Estaing turned around the election against Mitterand: 50.81%:49.19% after 32.60%:43.25%. In that election though, due to the Gaullists who fielded the only third candidate that mattered, the turnaround was a foregone conclusion.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 04:01:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: French election official results thread (4.00 / 3)

Bové also called on his voters to "battle Sarkozy" the "dangerous man" in the next round.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 04:06:10 AM EST

Re: French election official results thread (none / 1)

So we can congratulate Ms Royal and Mr Sarkozi and their supporters with good results. It seems that they are almost equally popular among French. Sorry I don't know who Mr Bayrou is, anyone can explain (in short-whether he is left, right, centrist, what was his attitude towards main candidats)?

by FarEasterner on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 04:18:32 AM EST

Re: French election official results thread (4.00 / 2)

He come from the 2nd component of the french right, the Catholic social democratic one, main support of Giscard, which was gobbled by the UMP (the gaullist right) when Chirac became president. It was always the part right next to the center on the electoral pies.
He hold the brand almost alone for a "traversée du désert", and is now profiting of the renaissance.
But he still is only half way to regain a meaningful position (read holding governement positions and a big faction in the parlament).

Politically, Bayrou stand for EU, traditional (Catholic) values, and moderate economic politics. He tried to give a new twist as being third way- ni gauche, ni droite- and it will be interesting to see how it plays out: the country as a whole is more right than when the old UDF lost its importance, so a new one would have to be positionned differently.

He is congenially against an hegemonic UMP - Sarkozy, his decision not to accept allegiance to theChirac/Sarkozy electoral machine was his political certificate of birth as a leader.

That is just my interpretation, and I don't follow the mood in France so closely, being abroad.

I hope it helps.

La répartie est dans l'escalier. Elle revient de suite.

by lacordaire on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 10:08:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: French election official results thread (none / 1)

Oh thank you very much. Your letter just cleared the air (in my mind) about Mr Bayrou and his ideology.

by FarEasterner on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 02:59:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: French election official results thread (none / 1)

Note: official results are moving slightly on the goc site, probably mistake corrections: Mme Ségolène ROYAL 9 501 295 25,87 (+0.04) M. Nicolas SARKOZY 11 450 302 31,18 (+0.07)

by Laurent GUERBY on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 06:59:59 AM EST

Re: French election official results thread (none / 1)

No, they just added the final missing count, that of French abroad, who also voted for Sarko with a clear majority... damn businessmen refugees in London, it seems.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 08:36:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: French election official results thread (4.00 / 2)

Indeed :

French voters registered in Belgium: 48,875

Voters: 23,384 Participation: 47.84%.

Sarkozy: 35.8%
Royal: 27.77%
Bayrou: 25.46%
Le Pen: 2.88%

See the low participation: seems like the Brussels bureaucrats don't like democracy.

The struggle of man against tyranny is the struggle of memory against forgetting.(Kundera)

by Elco B (elcob at scarlet dot be) on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 11:44:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: French election official results thread (4.00 / 5)

My computer died on Friday night so the only place I got news about the election was English language television news.

Some observations:

Sarkozy has the anglosphere pretty much nailed down. Now, you may not think this is a problem but London is the seventh largest French city in the world. There are 300,000 thousand French citizens living in the UK and most of them live in London.

Not only has Sarkozy's have been working these ex-pat's hard the man himself came over for a visit. Our candidate is only just getting round to sending campaign staff over the Channel.

Sky news love Sarkozy. Now, I know this may be stating the obvious - but I cannot emphasise the intensity of this crush (think Tweety hearts Dubya). All Sky's bobbleheads de Francais were either Sarkozy campaign officials or declared supporters.

Sarkozy's supporters were all over the British media and Royal's were not. Something that has to approve in the next two weeks.

Money is a sign of Poverty - Culture Saying

by RogueTrooper on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 07:17:21 AM EST

Re: French election official results thread (4.00 / 3)

Yes, same thing among US-based voters, where I think Sarko got 50% . Although keep in mind most of those living abroad are business people (or want to be business people).

As for what someone yesterday correctly called the "English media which speaks only neo-lib," I watched (with my students) the broadcast of the returns on France24, which consisted entirely of neo-lib, pro-Sarkozy commentary, much of it repeating memes right out of the Economist (as was the BBC, which I presume your post refers to.) Although the France24 reported from DC (who looked a lot like he might have been doing a parody on Jon Stewart) did seem to me to help Royal's cause by stating, twice, that the Bush administration is hoping for a Sarkozy victory.

IF only more people read Jerome ...

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 12:35:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: French election official results thread (none / 1)

IF only more people read Jerome ...

Or if Jerome was speaking for the campaign. Somebody who speaks good English and understands the English speaking media.

Money is a sign of Poverty - Culture Saying

by RogueTrooper on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 01:27:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Sigh... (none / 1)

How do I get the job?
How do I get the time?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 03:05:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sigh... (none / 1)

I'm sure if you want the job you can have it, just ask Segolene directly.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 06:38:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: French election official results thread (4.00 / 2)

Two weeks is not a lot of time to change that perception, and probably not enough, I'm afraid. It's that difficult call between longer campaigns, in which money plays such a crucial role, and shorter ones, which don't give as much time to produce substantial shifts in opinion. (Even the much-longer American cycle didn't give Kerry quite enough time to come back. Another two months, and we'd likely be bitching about how unbelievably boring President Kerry was to listen to. He still nearly pulled it off on the shift of undecideds in the end.)

I think TBG gave a pretty solid analysis yesterday. Royal may pull it off, and I do think it will be close (keeping in mind that I haven't dug into this race nearly as much as I did the midterms in the states or the '05 race in Britain), but Sarkozy seems to be playing with the stronger hand, at this point.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 11:45:59 AM EST

Why did Paris vote Sarkozy? (none / 1)

All but one Paris district apparently went Sarkozy. I'm surprised; at least in the US, Canada, and UK, big cities tend to lean more towards left-wing parties, and rural and suburban areas go conservative. France looks like the opposite.

by tyronen on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 02:06:16 PM EST

Re: Why did Paris vote Sarkozy? (4.00 / 2)

One of the things that makes Paris a great city is that it has a wide sociological range, including the moderately to very wealthy. And the VII, VIII, IX, XIV, XV, XVI arrondissements are full of moderately to very wealthy.

I think she also lost a bit more of center-left, reform-minded voters in Paris (the famous "bobos") to Bayrou than elsewhere -- and she stands a good chance to win them back on May 6th.

But what do you mean "all but one district." I think you're looking at the departmental map, which shows that in the Parisian region she finished first only in Seine-St Denis. Keep in mind that the departments outside of Paris have left-wing strongholds as well as the wealthier, right-leaning outer ring of suburbs which is Sarkozy's home turf. Also, among white voters in the formerly Communist-controlled towns of the Parisian red belt, LePen had made gains in the last few elections and these might well have areas where Sarkozy won a lot of support. If so, thats a distrubing development because she won't be able to win them back.

Within the city, she definitely carried the XIth, XIIth, XIIIth, XVIIIth, XIXth and XXth and maybe the Xth and XVIIth (I didn't check on the last two). What I wonder, haven't seen any reporting on this yet, and it may be impossible to sort out given that demographic data can't be broken down by race, is how she did among voters "issue de l'immigration." This was where there was a big spoke in new voters and it was hoped they would turn out heavily anti-Sarkozy. Anyone have anecdotal or other reporting on this?

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 02:54:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why did Paris vote Sarkozy? (4.00 / 3)

She carried 10 arrondissements out of 20 in Paris intra-muros.
But Sarkozy carried Paris overall, as well as 6 of the 7 suburban départements (Royal won in Seine Saint Denis, the one with most cités, and was pretty close in 2 or 3 others).

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 03:04:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why did Paris vote Sarkozy? (none / 1)

Jerome, would you agree that she stands a better chance of winning over Bayrou voters in the Paris region than elsewhere? That is, that Bayrou's vote here contains a larger share of left-leaning, professionals?

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 03:34:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why did Paris vote Sarkozy? (none / 1)

I had the impression all through the first round run-up that her slow-spoken, non-specific act was primarily geared toward rural voters.

I expect the next two-weeks to feature the cosmopolitan, Parisian Segolene Royal.

by paving on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 06:26:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why did Paris vote Sarkozy? (4.00 / 4)

France's top 5 cities voted ...

Paris: Sarko 35,07% / Royal 31,75% / Bayrou 20,73% / Le Pen 4,58%
Marseille: Sarko 34,25% / Royal 27,11% / Bayrou 14,10% / Le Pen 13,43%
Lyon: Sarko 34,46% / Royal 27,29% / Bayrou 22,09% / Le Pen 6,47%
Toulouse: Royal 36,15% / Sarko 26,75% / Bayrou 19,21% / Le Pen 6,35%
Nice: Sarko 41,83% / Royal 20,42% / Bayrou 14,57% / Le Pen 13,74%

I'm glad to live where it matters!

(hi to all, just passing through, very busy as you know)
(stay optimistic for Royal, there is an excel spreadsheet moving around the internet that enables computations of all types ... participation rates, splitting of votes for this or that candidate ... and it seems from it that Royal still has a good chance! i encourage anyone feeling gloomy to try writing their own!)

by glomp on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 05:22:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: French election official results thread (none / 1)

Anectodal info suggests that a lot of people seem to dislike Royal more than they fear Sarkozy. Two weeks to change this perception...

Why is nobody talking about the machisme of the left? Seems to me it's the elephant in the living room.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 06:23:08 AM EST

French election official results thread | 49 comments (49 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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