by An American in London
Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 08:58:29 AM EST
Please comment on what would have to happen in order for Royal to win. I believe she would have to come across as competent and wise in the debate. She will have to allign Sarko with the neocons and extremists of the Bush administration which shouldn't be hard to do since Sarko has always looked for photo opps with them whenever he has visited or spoken about Washington. Why hasn't Royal painted Sarko as an extremist pig whose best friends are Bush & Co and both elements will threaten everything the French people feel good about regardless of Sarko's slippery charm and command.
How will the other candidates voters vote in the runoff? Will LePen voters stay home or is it possible they would like to vote for Royal as a vote for Sarko would be committing political suicide and at least a vote for Royal allows them to be the 'opposition' and with LePen's daughter running against the first woman President therefore giving her more credibility as a female candidate?
Will Bayrou's voters be afraid of Sarko and vote overwhelmingly with Royal? Does any endorsement or tacit endorsement by Bayrou have any influence on his voters? After all they are an independent group having voted in the first place for Bayrou and certainly won't be followers.
Your comments and analysis are greatly appreciated.