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How Can Royal Win

by An American in London Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 08:58:29 AM EST

Please comment on what would have to happen in order for Royal to win. I believe she would have to come across as competent and wise in the debate. She will have to allign Sarko with the neocons and extremists of the Bush administration which shouldn't be hard to do since Sarko has always looked for photo opps with them whenever he has visited or spoken about Washington. Why hasn't Royal painted Sarko as an extremist pig whose best friends are Bush & Co and both elements will threaten everything the French people feel good about regardless of Sarko's slippery charm and command.

How will the other candidates voters vote in the runoff? Will LePen voters stay home or is it possible they would like to vote for Royal as a vote for Sarko would be committing political suicide and at least a vote for Royal allows them to be the 'opposition' and with LePen's daughter running against the first woman President therefore giving her more credibility as a female candidate?

Will Bayrou's voters be afraid of Sarko and vote overwhelmingly with Royal? Does any endorsement or tacit endorsement by Bayrou have any influence on his voters? After all they are an independent group having voted in the first place for Bayrou and certainly won't be followers.

Your comments and analysis are greatly appreciated.


Display:
P.S.

The idea of adopting an 'American market' capitalism will somehow lessen unemployment is a fallacy. The greatest driver of increased employment in the US is the increasing of government jobs on a local, state and national level. Outsourcing and the top 100 US compnaires for the last 25 years losing jobs to overseas competitors has done more damage to the American economy than anything else. Does France not believe this or has Royal tried to be all things to all people and not made the case against US 'modernity' being what drives Sarko.

by An American in London on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 09:16:38 AM EST
Do you have a link to stats to support that? I hadn't realised that was true in the US as well as the UK.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 09:25:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't have links at hand to support the fact the greatets increase in employment in the US are government jobs but it is common knowledge. The greatest increase in private sector jobs are in the service industry like Wal Mart etc. which aren't union jobs and pay usually 50% less than most of the jobs which have been outsourced.
by An American in London on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 10:23:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If I remember correctly, he/she was right through much of the cycle, but I think the private sector has now surpassed the public sector.  The growth in government spending has slowed quite a bit and will likely continue to slow, given the partisan divide between Congress and the White House.  That's not incredibly odd, though.  If a governments opts for fiscal policy in pursuit of stabilization, then it would make sense to see faster growth in the public sector -- the logic, of course, being partly that people take employment in the public sector to stay afloat during downturns, and leave because of higher pay elsewhere or budget cuts, once recovery sets in.

The bit on the job growth with companies like Wal-Mart is (again, if I remember correctly) rubbish, though.  Most jobs created in the Dot-Com Boom were quite high-paying (middle- to upper-middle-class), and, while a significant number of jobs were lost when the bust arrived, the losses were not terribly great.  (The unemployment rate never went above 6%.  That's not bad at all, as recessions go.)

As I understand, a large chunk of job growth these days is coming in health care, education, and financial services -- again, jobs that tend to pay decent salaries.  Teachers typically start in the range of $30-50k, depending on the state.  Health care, obviously, contains a wide variety of jobs, ranging from the lower-middle- to the upper-class in salary.  And financial services tend to start in a similar range to teachers, but they, obviously, have a lot more growth potential.

All three of those areas are facing labor shortages, too, and pay, last I checked, was rising at very strong rates.

Wal-Mart will open a store here and there, but there's simply not much room left before running into overproduction.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 12:56:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Labor demand in companies like Wal-Mart also tends to be highly inelastic.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 12:58:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The greatest increase in government employment comes at the state and local level; not the national level. The loss of manufacturing jobs to outsourcing, the decline of unions and the major corporations seeing their greatest growth internationally has contributed to the decline. The unemployment rate you quote is 'rubbish' as it doesnt truly reflect the state of employment in the US.
by An American in London on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 01:06:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think having progressive Americans come to Europe and disabuse people of the notion that America is paradise is very important.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 10:03:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Very much so.

The main task of Codice, he says, is to educate French citizens about the way the economy works so they are better informed and less hostile.

The council plans a slick new website, pamphlets and campaigns in universities and schools.

Training journalists, says Fauconnier, is vital because economic stories are often covered in a one-sided way on French TV.

"When a factory closes or sheds jobs, for example, there are lots of emotional interviews with angry workers, but rarely any analysis of the reasons behind the company's decision."

I wonder who's funding them? Somehow I don't think they're doing it out of the kindness of their hearts and a need to re-educate errant journalists.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 10:25:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The CODICE has been created and is funded by the French Ministry of Economy and Finance.

You can find more information on this page


"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 11:31:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If Katrina, Bush, America Invading Iraq etc. hasn't 'disabused people of the notion that America is paradise'; nothing I say will have a greater impact.

I may point out criticism of the US but it is a place where people can still come to and pursue their lives relatively freely when compared to other countries. The only class system in America is built on how much money you have which can make it possible for anyone to join as opposed to countries like the UK and France whose class systems are based on priviledge and which family you are part of.

by An American in London on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 10:29:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, but when I was in the US and I went to progressive rallies where the speaker was praising the European social model and the audience was going wild, I thought to myself these progressive speakers should tour the EU at least once, and talk to people, not just politicians.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 10:48:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And do Europeans want the right to walk into any gun dealer's place and buy enough guns and ammo to start your own insurgency, no waiting period, few questions asked and no check to verfy if you answered the form truthfully?  And, in the wake of the horrors at Virginia Tech, do Europeans want their politicians to proclaim that every man woman and child should carry a loaded gun from the moment they wake up to the moment they go to bed?  And do Europeans want to live in such a society?
by Navy Vet Terp on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 06:52:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Here is a link to a column from a year ago in The Observer which should shed some light on the health of the American economy and should warn anybody in France off of Sarko if they dont want to be avbused like many Americans. The most interesting statistic I have heard recently is the top 300,000 Americans earn more income than the bottom 150,000,000 Americans. Mindboggling and this is what Sarko wants to bring to France.The link to the column is:
 http://observer.guardian.co.uk/columnists/story/0,,1792399,00.html

 

by An American in London on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 10:44:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
the top 300,000 Americans earn more income than the bottom 150,000,000 Americans.

Delete "earn": insert "get"....

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 12:57:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You mean like this?
by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 12:43:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, something like that.
Of course, the United States is not vulnerable to the violent, total closing-down of the system that followed Mussolini's march on Rome or Hitler's roundup of political prisoners. Our democratic habits are too resilient, and our military and judiciary too independent, for any kind of scenario like that.
Give Naomi Wolf an A in civics.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 12:55:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I didn't say I thought she'd done it well.

And I'd be more impressed, frankly, if she'd made these points in an American newspaper rather than a British one.  But that is unlikely to happen, for reasons that probably have less to do with Naomi Wolf than with American newspapers....

by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 01:02:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But isn't the UK a better example of what's in store for France if they go the Sarko route? I mean, it would take a long time for France to have 10 million* people living (somehow) without healthcare, almost half a million* people in prison, and thousands* of French troops killed and maimed in Muslim civil wars. Not to mention not having ANY public transportation for 90% of the country.

Besides, for all our faults, we DO have a viable opposition party and a wealth of great possibilities to take over the country in 2008.

* I'm adjusting these figures to reflect that France has about 1/5 the population of the U.S.

by Matt in NYC on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 09:22:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm writing a piece on exactly this. I plan to send it to every paper I can - in French and in English.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 03:13:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A nice piece on how great unemployment should be, if our society was a bit smarter about it (in French)

Via Le Monolecte, one of the better French blog on the left.

Today's post about Harz 4 forced labor was great, btw.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 04:32:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think you can find some answers in the debate we had following this comment How Ségolène could win? in the French election official results thread.

I don't think an aggressive strategy towards Sarko would work. In fact, I think it could backfire, moderate voters seeing it as bigotry.

Only part of Bayrou voters will spontaneously vote Royal. Convincing more of them requires proposing them a positive common project to which they can adhere. It seems Segolène Royal has adopted this line.

 

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 10:47:42 AM EST
There's a very good article in the Guardian today by Philippe Marliere on that very subject;-

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,2064079,00.html

Social movements that have fought the neoliberal policies of the past five years are backed by most. If it is true that a majority of the French accept a market economy and free enterprise, then they are more adamant still that the state must play a crucial role as regulator..............

Ségolène Royal, (....), conducted a lacklustre and centrist campaign that alienated much of her electorate. Instead of coming out in defence of the social state and social justice, she emulated Blairite tactics in an attempt to triangulate Sarkozy's politics.......................

Royal's approach demoralised and angered traditional leftwing voters (many of whom none the less felt compelled to vote for her). It also disoriented working-class voters, who were unable to see any difference between the left and the right..................

Ségolène Royal has squandered a golden opportunity of defeating Sarkozy, whose brutal political style and neoliberal agenda engender such widespread fear. But that opportunity is not altogether gone, for she has not lost her major asset: Sarkozy himself. Surfing on a Tout Sauf Sarkozy coalition ("Anybody But Sarkozy"), Royal might just make it



keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 10:49:32 AM EST
When Philippe Marliere says:
Royal's approach demoralised and angered traditional leftwing voters (many of whom none the less felt compelled to vote for her). It also disoriented working-class voters, who were unable to see any difference between the left and the right..................

it is contradictory with the elections results: if leftwing voters had been so demoralised and angered, they would either have voted for the far-left or abstained.

As I said elsewhere, the Socialist Party and the far-left cannot make a majority. If Royal wants to win, she has to convince a significant number of Bayrou voters.

The "Anybody but Sarkozy" strategy will work well with the far-left and a limited number of Bayrou voters, but it will not be enough.

Philippe Marliere is a supporter of Laurent Fabius, who opposed the European constitutional treaty and who thinks he would benefit from Royal's defeat...

BTW, it is very difficult to forecast the behaviour of Le Pen voters. Some of them will vote Sarkozy, the extreme-right hard-liners will probably abstain and some will vote Royal, but it's impossible to know how many.


"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 11:11:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
it is contradictory with the elections results: if leftwing voters had been so demoralised and angered, they would either have voted for the far-left or abstained.

He explains this very point elsewhere in his article

The answer lies in the tragic errors of the left. The far left, a force to be reckoned with in France, was unable to unite and present a single candidate. No fewer than three Trotskyist candidates, a Communist and the altermondialiste José Bové were competing for the votes of the same constituency. Their disunity rendered their campaign inaudible


keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 11:24:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
  • In 2002, the far-left was not united: there were as many candidates of the far-left and, together, they made 19,06% of the votes (and you can add 5,33% for Chevènement). So the lack of unity doesn't explain the poor performance.
  • This remarkable performance was achieved by attracting voters who would have voted for Jospin (he obtained only 16,18% of the votes)
  • Abstention was much higher

So, his reasoning applies very well to the 2002 election, but not to the 2007 one!

And he doesn't explain why the far-left can't unite!

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 11:50:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You can unite the left-wing authoritarians, but for the rest, uniting the left is like herding cats.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 11:53:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Here's the problem with the "Tout sauf Sarko" strategy. Its very difficult for Royal to launch the sort of all-out attack that would be necessary for this to win. She can't use her official tv spots to attack him, and she doesn't have the sort of contacts with journalists that would allow her campaign to place stories reminding voters of the umpteen reasons that Sarkozy is to be feared. Only Canard and Libe and some left-leaning blogs have really been pushing those stories, and anyone who reads those had better already be in her camp.

If it were an American election, the strategy would be clear -- destroy him.

But sadly she needs for him to make another mistake, on the order of "genetique" or "racaille" -- but I think with the strong position he holds, he's going to campaign as if on whatever anti-anxiety medication his campaign logo was stolen from: blue skies, flying birds, soft music sweetly resonating "Ensemble..."

She needs to force him to make a mistake, and he's eminently capable of doing it. I think the only way for her really to put pressure on him is to start to make big inroads, fast, into the Bayrou electorate and the way to do that, as I posted yesterday, is to propose a full-scale agenda for institutional reform of parties, elections, finance (especially!) and the state. Sadly, though, its Sarko who is already gaining control of this terrain, proposing a "pole centriste" to his governing coalition; that should have been the first words out her mouth Sunday night.

I realize this is precisely the opposite of what Melanchthon is proposing, but it seems to me that a real "ouverture" and moreover a real promise to dissolve and build a true coalition of the center-left party -- managed capitalism, a more efficient public sector (yes); pro-European (with social and environmental orientation), and for that (much needed) populist edge, a challenge to the predominance of the financial-political elite.

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 11:59:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It is not at all the opposite of what I'm proposing. I agree with putting the focus on institutions change, the rule of law and a clean state. In fact, that's what Ségolène Royal is proposing to Bayrou in her call, especially focusing on the "impartial" state.

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
by Melanchthon on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 12:13:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ok, glad we agree. Where I think I differ is that I'm not sure an alliance of the "alternative left" can be much of a factor in this election. With respect to May 6, I think Royal has all the votes to her left she is going to get.

Beyond the election, I think its an important element of public debate largely because of the power of its arguments (and the appeal of its spokes-persons such as Bove and Besancenot) but like Hulot's "ecological pact," there is not actually a mass support of voters behind it.

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 12:33:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually re-reading your post above, I think we do agree on "how she can win" and perhaps also on whether or not the "pole radical" can be an electoral force in the future?
by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 12:35:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What must Royal say in the debates which would give hope to the French people but at the same time; differentiate herself greatly from Sarko? My fear is her trying to triangulate gives credence to Sarko's position.

Clinton's triangulation gave the US Bush and Blair's triangulation will possibly give the UK,Cameron so triangulation allows the right wignuts like Sarko to be chameleon-like since the opposition is also.

Differentiate herself from him in the debate; define in a calm, focused way what will be destroyed by Sarko if he is elected seems to be her only move now and hope women will want to vote en masse since it is the women's time to be President. After all, the men have had too many chances, unfulfilled promises and outsized egoes to do any good.

by An American in London on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 12:34:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
...he's going to campaign as if on whatever anti-anxiety medication his campaign logo was stolen from...

This reminds me: Has anyone asked the question of which meds he (might be/is) taking when he gets these migraines he suffers. I saw one poster of him today that looked pretty drugged out in the eyes.

Never underestimate their intelligence, always underestimate their knowledge.

Frank Delaney ~ Ireland

by siegestate (siegestate or beyondwarispeace.com) on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 05:56:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's a tricky game even in the often-mindless circus of American politics.  It can backfire quite easily if the attacks are seen to be way over the line, especially in a general election.  The Republicans launched vicious, xenophobic, racist attack ads on the Dems' views of immigration last year, especially in the Deep South, Midwest and Southwest -- the thought apparently being that Mexicans would trump the war, for some reason.  They backfired.  (Funny story: Turns out -- as I've been telling my fellow political junkies here in the states for years it would -- that Americans love to gripe about illegal immigration, but that, at the end of the day, they really don't give a shit.)  The Republicans looked like exactly what they are: vicious, xenophobic and racist, in addition to incompetent (already a given by that point).

Strategically, even if Royal could launch a massive attack, it would be highly risky to say that Sarko is dangerous -- the risk being that she would make it impossible for voters to take her seriously if they didn't perceive Sarko to be truly dangerous.  If you're going to call a candidate dangerous, you'd better have a reason, or you'd better make one up very quickly.  There had better be some serious evidence that he is either preparing to try to take over the world or having sex with his dog or something.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 07:58:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I agree with you: a negative strategy is doomed to fail (see my comments above).

There had better be some serious evidence that he is either preparing to try to take over the world or having sex with his dog or something

If he was preparing to take over the world, he would be elected with an overwhelming majority: the French still love Bonaparte... For the dog, it's his private life and we don't care...

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 09:32:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Drew, don't know where you live but where I do -- Nevada -- xenophobic attacks on "illegal immigrants" work just fine.

An entirely misleading ad implying that our candidate favored drivers' licenses for "illegal immigrants" sunk the progressive campaign I worked on last year, by taking away a lot of moderate to conservative Democratic voters -- even though they knew the conservative republican would be terrible (as he's turned out to be). Even a lot of people who ended up voting for us didn't understand why she wanted to "give extra rights to illegal immigrants."

And its the gift that keeps on giving -- once established that public services go to "illegal immigrants," it allows republicans to challenge otherwise highly popular programs such as college tuition assistance, publicly subsidized health care or even additional funding for kindergarten.

To keep this on topic, the line that it would only make him look idiotic is what everyone said about LePen in the 70s and 80s.

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 10:58:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Go read this this thread from top to bottom...you will get a lot of info:

http://www.eurotrib.com/story/2007/4/23/3410/32782

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia

by whataboutbob on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 10:56:23 AM EST
Not entirely on topic, but can anyone explain this cartoon to me?  I'm feeling particularly dense, because I just don't really get it.
by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 01:04:39 PM EST
Sarkozy as Thatcher, Royal as Marianne, but who's she stomping on? Le Pen as a toppled dictator statue?

It doesn't seem to me like the cartoon is intended to be funny. I think we're supposed to admire the cartoonist.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 01:12:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Both Sarkozy and Royal have stomped on LePen. As you said the fight is between the Margaret Thatcher/Sarkozy with a gun against the traditional Marianne/Royal. The cartoon is what has happened in the first round
by An American in London on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 01:17:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You don't see Sarkozy's feet on Le Pen. Only Royal's.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 01:21:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Perhaps its an effort to explain the French result to those who no longer actually read the newspaper.

Le Pen is a quasi-Hilter statue that has been pulled down, Royal is that french trollop with the flag, and Sarkozy makes an ugly version of Thatcher.

Clearly, you are supposed to be barracking for Royal and congratulating yourself on not living in France.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 01:43:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, I got that it was Royal as Marianne and Sarkozy as Thatcher, but I still don't entirely get what it's trying to say.  They've vanquished Le Pen?  Is that it?

I dunno, seems kinda lame.  I was hoping I was missing some deeper meaning or cultural reference, but apparently not.

by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 02:19:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Some promising news from the newly released by TNS-Sofres, showing a narrow margin for Sarko 51-49. Note that this is the first poll conducted entirely after Sunday, based on data from Monday and Tuesday. There's a high likelihood that the FIVE polls published Monday, all based on Sunday evening calls, overweighted older, wealthier and less urban voters. (American pollsters have in the past tried to avoid doing surveys on weekends for this reason.)

seules 25 % des voix de François Bayrou se reporteraient sur le candidat de l'UMP contre 46 % sur la candidate du PS, le reste des électeurs du candidat de l'UDF n'exprimant pas d'intentions de vote. Nicolas Sarkozy obtiendrait en revanche les faveurs de 62 % des électeurs du Front national. Mme Royal pourrait pour sa part compter sur le report de 78 % des voix d'Olivier Besancenot.

only 25% of the votes of Francois Bayrou would come to the UMP candidate, against 46% for the candidate of the PS, [a much wider margin for Royal than in any earlier poll], the rest of the UDF candidate's voters not expressing an intention. Nicolas Sarkozy would obtain by contrast the support of 62% of the Front National voters [Sunday polling have him >75%]. Madame Royal could count for her part on the support of 78% of Olivier Besancenot's voters.

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 02:50:26 PM EST
By the way, Reuters put out a "correction" to the report I quoted above, noting that Sarkozy is getting 35%, not 25%, of Bayrou voters in that survey.
by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 10:59:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Frankly there are no way for Royal to win (If Sarko does not make a big mistake) and the likely strategy for her, is to keep her left to keep the PS alive for the legislatives election (parlement, She still need the extrem left to win a large part of the PS' paliamentary seats and cannot affraid them by being too center)

Unfortunately for some, with the end of the extrem-right the left has not more possibility to get back and win another election :

Lepen has been a precious ally for the left to win the parliamentary seats.

Sarko will be president for 10 years, since presidents are usually reelected and UMP will stay in power much longer.

I hope they will create a shadow minister.

by fredouil (fredouil@gmailgmailgmail.com) on Tue Apr 24th, 2007 at 02:53:26 PM EST


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