by Jerome a Paris
Mon May 14th, 2007 at 09:16:54 AM EST
Rembrandt Koppelaar, who writes (alongside yours truly) for the European branch of the Oil Drum, and runs the Dutch branch of the ASPO (Association for the Study of Peak Oil), has started a newsletter (pdf!) which tracks official oil production statistics and turns them into neat graphs. Here are a few, which seem to strengthen CERA's case for an 'undulating plateau' - except that it's happening right now and not in 30 years' time...:
The above graph is about only crude oil, but the picture is not that different when you include all 'liquids', i.e. oil-equivalents that come as by-products of gas production or from oil sands or other alternative sources:
It is also very obvious that overall production matches the rise and falls of OPEC oil production:
Only Africa and the Former Soviet Union have seen growth in recent years, and FSU production is now falttening out, as Russian oil companies brought back online the easiest fields after the crash of the early 90s; with the recently regained State control of the sector, investment to boost production does not appear to be the first priority.
Again, the picture is one where 'we', the 'West', appear to have little control over future supply, and are increasingly in competition with others who also need oil for their own growth/demand. Which points to only one thing: we need to reduce our demand, something we actually control, and that will actually have plenty of positive side effects (less pollution, more good jobs, less need to support dictators around the world and indirectly nurture gangsters with grievances, etc...)