Thu May 17th, 2007 at 06:35:31 AM EST
Lately I have been feeling that I had nothing really new to say.
Today at long last I have something.
It is about nukes.. and (MAD) Mutual Assured Destruction doctrine)..and other "crazy Cheney stuff".
Go there.. and follow me if you wish.
From the diaries (with slight edit) by afew
As you may have been hearing lately, the US wants a missile shield system in Poland...
As you may imagine it is directed at Russia, unless you live in wonderland and think that this is about Iran.
The imaginary (or symbolic universe) that it is coming out of Washington is: "we are really that close... that close to get a shield and then we will be able to nuke everyone we want with no retaliation".
As you may guess any other thing that is not-MAD is really mad, except for a complete destruction of nuclear warheads... which does not seem possible... The only reason we have a peaceful inter-state world (in terms of wars between countries 2005-2007 make a new low... reaching the incredible number 2 or 3 counting Iraq) is because we have MAD without the cold war (violence within states is another matter).
The first salvo of this kind of no-MAD nonsense came from a Foreign Affairs article:
This debate may now seem like ancient history, but it is actually more relevant than ever -- because the age of MAD is nearing an end. Today, for the first time in almost 50 years, the United States stands on the verge of attaining nuclear primacy. It will probably soon be possible for the United States to destroy the long-range nuclear arsenals of Russia or China with a first strike. This dramatic shift in the nuclear balance of power stems from a series of improvements in the United States' nuclear systems, the precipitous decline of Russia's arsenal, and the glacial pace of modernization of China's nuclear forces. Unless Washington's policies change or Moscow and Beijing take steps to increase the size and readiness of their forces, Russia and China -- and the rest of the world -- will live in the shadow of U.S. nuclear primacy for many years to come.
Well... this is bollocks...as can be shown here:
If you like more detail discussion I want to direct you to russianforces.org.
The evidence that the Russian strategic nuclear force has not deteriorated is huge... go to the links in the webpage for the details.
While Russia has been always a bit behind on submarine strategic missiles and somehow clearly behind strategic aerial bombing.. the present 12 nuclear submarines updated with standard SS25 and the Tupolev 160 is more than enough to be almost even with the US capability in any realistic scenario.
And more to the point, the new mobile SS27 with diversion tactics.. and the new programs with early diversion tactics (read about it.. not found the link) make the US missile shield absolutely useless.
The only real way to stop Russia from annihilating the US would be, not only to destroy all the 12 submarines in a first strike..vand all the air-force bases with strategic planes.. they would also have to find and localize all the SS27 (together with the more standard silos that probably may get replaced with updated low-rate failure delivery systems)... how in hell are they going to do that?
And what has Poland to do with it... maybe it has nothing to do with defense shields but with some airstrike ability I am not aware of..
Or is it just because they feel confident that they can indeed shield the US from the Silo-IBCMs with this system and that after all 7 o 8 bombs from an SS27 is not that big deal... but what would the US do if Russia gets 50 SS27?... or 100 specially if the US gets the missile up there?
Is it just to make money from an arms race? I put the missile shield.. you have to develop the SS27.. you develop the SS27 I have to justify another big design.. and then Russia can put in place the SSXX (whatever new number) with the new delivery systems...
In any case, Russia is now at least even and probably ahead in the complete delivery system, contrary to what Foreign Affairs claim... Actually, if Russia would have the standard USSR air forces that it dismantled regarding airstrike capability the only way the US could hit Russia would be from the submarine superiority....and still.
Right now.. if there is a technological arms race, Russia is 10 years ahead.. minimum.. is the US playing with the brute force air-strike idea?
Place to discuss...I would really love to hear your feelings and your data... and do not forget.. have a look at russianforces.org/
UPDATE -from Migeru regarding the SS-30 :
The Russian military developed Bulava to possess advanced defense capabilities making it nearly impervious to existing missile-defense systems. Among its claimed abilities are: evasive maneuvering, mid-course countermeasures and decoys, and a warhead fully shielded against both physical and EMP damage. The Bulava is designed to be capable of surviving a nuclear blast at a minimum distance of 500 meters.
UPDATE II - from ElcoB regarding the MIRV system deployment in RIA Novosti - Russia - Russia to deploy fixed-site Topol-M ICBMs by 2010 -SMF cmdr.:
Alongside the deployment of Topol-M mobile complexes, we are planning to finalize the deployment of fixed-site Topol-M systems by 2010," Col. Gen. Nikolai Solovtsov said.
He said Monday the Topol-M system will be equipped with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRV) in the next two or three years, adding the new system will help penetrate missile defenses more effectively.
UPDATE III From Dodo on how the SCMB delivery system improved thanks to a completely different technology: cavitation, which allows submarines to attack and provide countermeasures given them time to at least launch one nuclear warhead or even put a nuclear head on them....
There you go: VA-111 Shkval - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Deployed in the early 1990s, although previously operational, the Shkval is designed as a countermeasure against torpedoes launched by undetected enemy submarines. It may also be used as a counter to incoming torpedoes whereby it is launched at the enemy submarine, forcing it to evade, and hopefully cutting the guidance wire to its own torpedo in the process.
The speed of the VA-111 far exceeds that of any standard torpedo currently fielded by NATO. This speed is a result of supercavitation: the torpedo is, in effect, flying in a gas bubble created by outward deflection of water by its specially shaped nose cone. By keeping water from contacting the surface of the body of the torpedo, this significantly reduces drag and allows for extremely high speeds. In effect, the Shkval is an underwater missile.
Launched from 533 mm torpedo tubes, the VA-111 exits the tube at 50 knots. Shortly after, its rocket ignites and propels it to speeds of up to 200 knots. Some reports indicate that speeds of 250+ knots may be achieved, and that work on a 300 knot version was underway.
Guidance was nonexistent in initial designs, as the missile was intended for nuclear warhead delivery. Later designs reportedly include terminal guidance and conventional warheads of 210kg (460 pounds).
Thanks for all the info down int he comments.... I felt that this diary was incomplete without them...