Mon May 28th, 2007 at 04:06:57 AM EST
Today there are elections in Spain for the all the majorships (big and small cities alike) and for all but four of the seventeen Autonomous Communities (our Länder).
This is a diary to just keep the people over here informed... if you wish
Updated results in comments: by Migeru & kcurie
From the diaries & bumped ~ whataboutbob
Today the big cities of Spain will go left or right. Madird, Barcelona, Sevilla, Valencia, Bilbao and Zaragoza being the big big cities.
Given the situation in the Basque Country , the election for the majorship of San Sebastian and other Euskal cities will be interesting to watch.
Not surprisingly local election is about majors... so most if it is pretty decided already except for the fight for Valencia, a rigt-wing city who has a chance to become left...very small chance.
So the most important election are actually in our Länder... since here it is where you can measure and asses support for Zapatero and Rajoy in the next general election..
Key regional Elections:
Madrid Autonomous Community: The most relevant center of power of the right-wing movement in Spain. Center of money, influence, media.. the autonomous government of Madrid is headed by probably the next candidate of the PP within 5 years: Esperanza Aguirre. It seems that the right-wing is going to win in a landslide never seen before. Tonight we will see just how strong is going to be this stronghold.. and if it reaches very dangerous proportions for the center-left government.
Valencia Autonomous Community: lead by the right-wing, there is a small change that they will win but with less support. If this were to happen, it is a clear sign that Zapatero is quite safe in the future.
Navarra: Possibility of advances by the left-wing parties.. the present right-wing (directly allied with PP) party leading the community may lose control... that would be huge news given that Navarra is in the middle of the present ETA sort of process.
Balearic Islands: Always neck to neck... sharply divided among a center-right candidate (belonging to PP) and hardcore left-wing candidatures. Each time is too close to call....
Canarian Islans: typically controlled by a middle-of-the-road nationaslistic party (which has agreements wboth with left and right wing governments).. this time the party of the government PSOE may win... if this were to happen... well Zaptero can have a good sleep
Other center-left strongholds: It will be very important to see if the mainly rural areas of Castilla- La mancha and Extremadura keep voting to the center-left in one of the most weird aspects of Spanish politics.
Other right-wing strongholds: Another typical rural community, Castilla-Leon, has always been a stronghold of the right-wing party. Again the same?
And that's it.. I will be busy until late at night without computer... but I will post some results.. like my city Barcelona and give some answer to the questions above...
MORNING UPDATE: Well, it seems we covered the elections fairly well but during the late night. One exception (good) since at counting the last votes in Balearic islands, it seems that PP is now losing the absolute majority..but we will have to wait for the official tally that is done in the next few days by the electoral office and justice.. and wait for future pacts.
On the bad news side, most of the strongholds of PP become slightly mroe stronghold, while this only happens in Extremadura for the left-wing side. Plus the blow-out of the right-wing in Madrid which suddenly becomes a PP strognhold.
On the good news side. There is not a single relevant political entity which moves from PSOE to PP (except for the Madrid dormitory city of Guadalajara) while a lot of middle cities go the other way (Jaen, Toledo, Gran Canaria, Vigo, Ourense, Logroño, Soria, León...) as well as three important communities: Navarra, Baleares and canarias (though those three waiting for not-easy pacts , specially Navarra).
Summing up.. it seems that the absolute majority of PSOE in the next elections is almost impossible... but still, the victory will probably be for Zapatero.. and as we have ponted out a lot of times, even if losing, ZP will govern almost for sure. Migeru will have a look (although it is a ton of work!!!) if he has the huge amount of time required to make a general election projection of these results.