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Elections in Spain (Morning update)

by kcurie Mon May 28th, 2007 at 04:06:57 AM EST

Today there are elections in Spain for the all the majorships (big and small cities alike) and for all but four of the seventeen Autonomous Communities (our Länder).

This is a diary to just keep the people over here informed... if you wish

Updated results in comments: by Migeru & kcurie

From the diaries & bumped ~ whataboutbob


Today the big cities of Spain will go left or right. Madird, Barcelona, Sevilla, Valencia, Bilbao and Zaragoza being the big big cities.

Given the situation in the Basque Country , the election for the majorship of San Sebastian and other Euskal cities will be interesting to watch.

Not surprisingly local election is about majors... so most if it is pretty decided already except for the fight for Valencia, a rigt-wing city who has a chance to become left...very small chance.
So the most important election are actually in our Länder... since here it is where you can measure and asses support for Zapatero and Rajoy in the next general election..

Key regional Elections:

Madrid Autonomous Community: The most relevant center of power of the right-wing movement in Spain. Center of money, influence, media.. the autonomous government of Madrid is headed by probably the next candidate of the PP within 5 years: Esperanza Aguirre. It seems that the right-wing is going to win in a landslide never seen before. Tonight we will see just how strong is going to be this stronghold.. and if it reaches very dangerous proportions for the center-left government.

Valencia Autonomous Community: lead by the right-wing, there is a small change that they will win but with less support. If this were to happen, it is a clear sign that Zapatero is quite safe in the future.

Navarra: Possibility of advances by the left-wing parties.. the present right-wing (directly allied with PP) party leading the community may lose control... that would be huge news given that Navarra is in the middle of the present ETA sort of process.

Balearic Islands: Always neck to neck... sharply divided among a center-right candidate (belonging to PP) and hardcore left-wing candidatures. Each time is too close to call....

Canarian Islans: typically controlled by a middle-of-the-road nationaslistic party (which has agreements wboth with left and right wing governments).. this time the party of the government PSOE may win... if this were to happen... well Zaptero can have a good sleep

Other center-left strongholds: It will be very important to see if the mainly rural areas of Castilla- La mancha  and Extremadura keep voting to the center-left in one of the most weird aspects of Spanish politics.

Other right-wing strongholds: Another typical rural community, Castilla-Leon, has always been a stronghold of the right-wing party. Again the same?

And that's it.. I will be busy until late at night without computer... but I will post some results.. like my city Barcelona and give some answer to the questions above...

MORNING UPDATE: Well, it seems we covered the elections fairly well but during the late night. One exception (good) since at counting the last votes in Balearic islands, it seems that PP is now losing the absolute majority..but we will have to wait for the official tally that is done in the next few days by the electoral office and justice.. and wait for future pacts.

On the bad news side, most of the strongholds of PP become slightly mroe stronghold, while this only happens in Extremadura for the left-wing side. Plus the blow-out of the right-wing in Madrid which suddenly becomes a PP strognhold.

On the good news side. There is not a single relevant political entity which moves from PSOE to PP (except for the Madrid dormitory city of Guadalajara) while a lot of middle cities go the other way (Jaen, Toledo, Gran Canaria, Vigo, Ourense, Logroño, Soria, León...) as well as three important communities: Navarra, Baleares and canarias (though those three waiting for not-easy pacts , specially Navarra).

Summing up.. it seems that the absolute majority of PSOE in the next elections is almost impossible... but still, the victory will probably be for Zapatero.. and as we have ponted out a lot of times, even if losing, ZP will govern almost for sure. Migeru will have a look (although it is a ton of work!!!) if he has the huge amount of time required to make a general election projection of these results.

Display:
You beat me by... by two hours! and I'm glad because my diary was a bore:

Spain is holding elections today in 13 of the 17 autonomous regions and 8111 municipalities, among regional parties and the three major national parties:

IU - United Left which includes the old communist party, the greens, etc.

PSOE - Socialist party

PP - Popular party, the cannibalistic extreme-right.
...

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.

by metavision on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 10:54:02 AM EST
IU does not include the Greens, in any of the three largest provinces (Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia)! In fact, in the regions where there is a Green Left (Catalonia and Valencia) the national IU always had an uneasy relation with the Green Left. Didn't IU at some point try to compete with Iniciativa per Catalunya-Verts?

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 10:59:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Having looked at the detailed results province by province, I see that I was to a large extent out of date.

IU is indeed a United Left and not a Green Left, but in most places they have run in coalition with Left Green parties, and in Catalonia and Valencia they ran in coalition with "Iniciativa" (a Green Left party).

Currently, in the Congress of Deputies IU and IC-V caucus together.

So, things have progressed a bit in the years I've been away.

The economy needs to be thought of as a garden, not as a wild ecosystem

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 29th, 2007 at 06:11:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You will be in charge... from now on.. ince I have to leave .. I work during the elections...

As soon as I get back I will report wha t I know.. but Iam sure you will be faster!!!!

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 12:58:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'll try to get some official figures from the Ministry of the Interior as they become available. Polls close at 8pm.

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 01:01:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Please let us know results...and the possible meanings of these! Thanks!!

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 12:01:58 PM EST
The "historical" Autonomous Communities (Catalonia, Basque Country, Galicia and Andalusia) don't have elections to the Autonomous Assemblies today, because their governments have the power to dissolve their parliaments. In the case of Madrid, the last election had to be repeated in the autumn of 2003 because neither the PSOE nor the PP was able to have their candidate approved by the regional assembly, so the legislative term has been slightly shorter than 4 years.

The four "historical" Communities include the two largest by population (Andalusia and Catalonia, with over 7M people each) and so the number of people voting for regional parliaments today is just over half of the people voting for local councils.

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 01:55:05 PM EST
Polls closed 20 minutes ago except in the Canary Islands, which are on WET instead of CET.

Exit polls for Madrid project a rise of the PP and IU in the Region and a rout of the PSOE in the City.

[received by SMS from Madrid]

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 02:20:39 PM EST
From the Comunidad de Madrid official results page: with 23.32% of votes counted:
PartyVote %Seats
PP48.89(+0.41)61(+4)
PSOE37.25(-1.75)47(+2)
IU9.57(+1.07)12(+3)
Participation was 67% vs. 63% in October 2003.

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 04:19:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Madrid city is Galalrdon Country...

for ever and ever..

But the community of Madrid is really still enck and neck... excellent enws to compensate for Madrid city debacle.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 04:29:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Excellent news anyway if Gallardón does better than Aguirre (lesser evilism and all that).

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 04:33:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In a city with two more seta concils.. the social-democrats lose two seats!!!!!....

Youc an imagine.. it isa 33 rigth 19 center-left and 5 the left..

Gallardon huge huge.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 04:40:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Lesser....?  I´m beginning to see a very dark side of him behind the "good-humor guy", although it is hard to be as bad as Aguirre.

Geez, I hate Madrid sheep!!!!!!!!!!

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.

by metavision on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 04:43:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, lesser. Gallardón is not an Aznarite, and Aguirre would be a willing puppet.

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 04:45:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Lesser right wing.  OK.  

It would have been nice if the left had a chance, but I got a feeling before the campaign started that the PSOE did not want to win in Madrid.  Sebastian never really tried, had little exposure and then allowed a misconstruction of words in the debate to be used against him.  I think Madrid region and city are in such bad shape, the left doesn´t want to be the fall guy.

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.

by metavision on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 04:59:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sebastian's rout will be seen as a personal defeat of Zapatero, and increases the likelyhood of a Zapatero-Gallardón face-off in 2012.

Miguel Sebastián was the personal Economics advisor to Zapatero, and I have heard he had set up a 50-person economic policy unit at La Moncloa (the PM's residence). 50 people! Can you imagine what 50 ETers could do if they hired us full-time for an economic policy unit? And yet, no economic policy has come out of La Moncloa in these 3 years... During the 2004 election campaign, it was Jordi Sevilla and the PSOE economic policy unit that advised Zapatero, but some time after taking power, Zapatero was "charmed" by Sebastián and he decided to make him his personal economic advisor. This mush have caused blisters not only with Jordi Sevilla but also with Pedro Solbes (Economics and Finance minister already in 1993-6 and a member of the Prodi Commission) who, I have heard rumoured, was increasingly unhappy in Zapatero's government and might leave. The Madrid Socialist Federation (FSM) is in disarray and has been for years. The candidate for Mayor in 2003 was Trinidad Jiménez, who Zapatero recently gave a job dealing with international cooperation with Latin America. This left a vacancy that he tried to fill "digitally" (by imposing a candidate himself). He first tried José Bono (his first Defence Minister) but Bono declined. Then he tried to draft his VP, María Teresa Fernández de la Vega, but a group of PSOE feminists thwarted that on the argument that the first (and very effective) female VP shouldn't be used to fix Zapatero's messes. So, he selected Sebastián, who was totally unknown in Madrid and received the nickname sevahostiar ("he's going to crash and burn").

So this has been a personal defeat for Zapatero, or else Zapatero is a consummate strategist and he decided to sacrifice Sebastián to Gallardón in order to; 1) give "moderate" Gallardón a little help against hardliner Aguirre when time comes (in 2008) to replace Rajoy as the PP leader; 2) disband the economic policy unit at La Moncloa and make the PSOE apparatus and Solbes happy.

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 05:16:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Brilliant comment Migeru!!!

Unfortuantely aguirre crosses the 50 % level right now.... so aguirre will come first .. ej jejeje

let's hope there is a change and Aguirre is kept around 50%.. not likely but I still hope...

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 05:27:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
...will work for Phallanstery (PN not included)

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 06:30:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Last results give a nother blow-out of PP int eh community .. with 65 instead of 61 seats...

This is a Madrid going strongly right-wing.. as never before....

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 05:16:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Still, Aguirre gets 51.30% of the vote as compared to Gallardón's 55.29%.

Looking at the regional election results in the city of Madrid only, Aguirre got 53.94%, about halfway between her regional result and Gallardón's result.

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 05:21:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
From the Local Elections website, Madrid mayoral election results:
PartyVote %Seats
PP54.49(+3.19)33(+3)
PSOE31.81(-4.87)19(-2)
IU8.88(+1.66)5(+1)
Participatio n is 68.3% vs. 68.9% in 2003.

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 04:40:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
this is called blow-out.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 04:48:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Here is the official election results site (centralised nationally).

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 03:24:16 PM EST
With 31.46% of votes counted, the national total is:











Partyvote %2003 vote %
PSOE36.73%34.83%
PP32.47%34.29%
IU5.39%6.07%
CiU4.20%3.44%
PNV2.26%1.78%
Esquerra1.94%1.93%
ICV1.71%1.46%
BNG1.56%1.42%
PA1.28%1.45%

Participation was 61%, against 68% in 2003.

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 03:38:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The following maps (taken from the Official election site) represent the party that won the highest number of local council seats, per region and province. This gives a higher weight to smaller towns as they have more local councillors per inhabitant. These data are at 61% of the votes counted, nationally.

Red is PSOE, Blue is PP, Yellow is CiU, Green is PNV, Beige is CC.

See wikipedia: Political Parties in Spain, Autonomous Communities of Spain, and Provinces of Spain.

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 03:59:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What about some maps of the Civil War for comparison?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 04:15:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
From Wikipedia:
August'36October'37November'38


Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 04:23:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So Valencia remains to be explained...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 04:35:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
it is called construction...it is called housing buidlings and big money... oh .a nd a very charasmatic major int eh case of the city of Valencia.. but regardign the community.. it is astonishing.. but we still do not know exactly if the right-wing suffers a little bit there...

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 04:42:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And Madrid...

Though I have an explanation. Madrid was under siege for the duration of the war, so it should be red. However, being the capital, opposition to Franco was stamped out in earnest. Valencia was the seat of the Republican government during the war, and may have suffered a similar fate.

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 04:44:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
barcelona (today and then four years ago)

PSC    165.835    30,47    14     254.223    33,6    15
CiU    135.748    24,94    12     162.010    30,63    9
PP    84.458    15,52    7     121.991    16,12    7
ICV    51.143    9,40    4     91.286    12,07    5
ERC    48.126    8,84    4     96.868    12,8    5
C's    20.985    3,86    -    -    -    -

PSC left-wing loses ground but can govern with the left-wing idnependentists ERC and the green aprty ICV.

Ciu the center party (slightly right for catalan standards) improves significativelly...

there was a huge abstention.. adn the party Ciutadans , a weird PP supprote affiliated party get almost 4% of the vote .. but in majorship the threshold is 5 %

So Barcelona will remain the same..

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 04:28:16 PM EST
I observe that CiU takes one seat from each of the parties of the tripartit. That is just a shuffle of nationalist votes.

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 04:29:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
More than that.. it is strong support from acrosss the board...

Ciu candidate was highlyr egarded by all the spectrum..a nd still.. we wil not be major

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 04:33:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Erm... the vote % this time add up to 93% and last time to 105%. Whassup with that?

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 04:32:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Huges mess-up`by la vanguardia...

checkin

A pelasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 04:35:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Official results. Cut the middleman.

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 05:00:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Absolutely.. These are the correct.. and almost final results.

right-wing PP  has almost no support increae.. and the centered trias wins over a lot of votes....

But no big diffirence...same government for next four year.. but watch out if trias keep on working with his left-wing attack on social issues... and right-wing attack on lack of administration.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 05:09:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Update at 22:42

It seems that the right-wing will get more votes in total given the huge abstention in catalonia... they will win by less than 1%.

regarding  the centers of power.. the improtant stuff.

Catlalonia cities keep PSOE. Madrid and Valencia cities go strongly PP with a moderate centrist at the head in Madrid and a strong right-wing in valencia.

Regardign communities...Madrid and Valencia community goes right-wing but not too comfortable at this moment (it can change). wW are waiting if the right-wing is going to suffer in the Baleriac Islanda and Navarra (right-wing) now) still too close to call.

Everything should be clear up int eh next hour.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 04:47:45 PM EST
for the left, altogether. Or am I misunderstanding things?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 05:35:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The blow-out in madrid .. plus the huge abstantion in catalonia gives no room for comfort to the social-democrats.

Zapatero will not sleep completely well..even if the right-wing loses Balearic island which is now less probable and Navarra (hghly probable)

On the good side.. the social-democrat strongholds iN Nadalucia, extremadura, castilal La Macha and Asturias are still strongholds...
A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 05:46:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's actually bad... Look at the overall result:
PartyVote %2003 Vote %
PP35.6434.29
PSOE34.9934.83
IU5.526.07
CiU3.323.44
Esquerra1.601.83
BNG1.421.42
PNV1.421.78
IC-V1.191.46
PA1.071.45
All of the parties of the left lost vote %. Participation was 64% vs. 68% in 2003.

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 05:49:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
it is all about the abstention in catlaonia and the blow-out of gallardon.. this makes up for all the difference and more int he local elections.

Catalonia (lack of) and Madrid (too much of) should worry Zapatero.. indeed.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 06:03:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I intend to convert the local election results into national election results (by province) in 2003 and 2007, and compare with 2000 and 2004. Should be a lot of work, but interesting.

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 06:09:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One of the local papers shows the right wing PP affiliate, UPN the largest party but well under 50% even with the CDN.  An alliance between the local nationalists and PSOE could turn Navarra.  Also it appears that the UPN mayor of Pamplona , Yolanda Barcina, has lost her office.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 05:35:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
PP right-wing loses the majority in navarra. Huge news.....

But the reason is not the social-democrats but the natioanalistic which get more votes thnant he social democratas

UPN    90.710    42,0    22     126.725    41,4    23
Nafa B    51.253    23,7    12     54.321    17,8    8
PSOE    49.151    22,7    12     64.663    21,1    11
IU    9.482    4,4    2     26.834    8,8    4
CDN    9.382    4,3    2    23.437    7,7    4

At 67 %

So 22+2 (UPN right wing and CDN center-right) do nto reach the 12+12+2.... but will Zapatero allow a pact where the new president will be a kind of harcore natiaonalistic?

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 05:25:53 PM EST
This is big news.

Navarre Yes or Nafarroa Bai (Basque) is a coalition for the 2004 Spanish elections made of Eusko Alkartasuna (Basque Solidarity), Aralar, Batzarre and the Partido Nacionalista Vasco (Basque Nationalist Party) political parties, specifically candidating in Navarre aiming to win a seat in the Spanish parliament, in which the coalition was successful, gaining 18.4% of votes cast.


Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 05:34:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If the UPN loses Navarra, the connection with the PP could prove extremely tenous, with the UPN choosing to got the route of CiU rather than remaining affiliated with the PP.  The same thing is threatening to occur in Galicia.  That would lock the PP into the Castilles, and Valencia.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 05:42:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Recall that UPN is actually a splinter party of the PP that was so successful that the PP basically had to take it in on UPN's terms.

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 05:50:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually, not a splinter. It exists independently of the PP (then AP) since 1979 and has been in association with it since 1982. But they are a "Navarrist" party, and they have had considerable friction with the national PP.

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 05:53:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
CDN is the splinter, and it was once in coalition with PSN and EA (now part of Na-Bai).

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 06:25:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Think Catalunya.

There you have a nationalist left (ERC) nationalist right(CiU), Spanish Left (PSOE) and Spanish Right (PP).  The PP has marginalized themselves there because they refuse to accomodate nationalist sentiment.  Electoral politics is largely a local affair, with two cleavages, nationalism and ideology.  So basically because the  Spanish right is so small there, PSOE (or PSC more accurately) is connected with Madrid.  But the politics is intensely local.  

I think that the same thing happens in Navarra.

If I stay in school for my PhD I should go back next summer. Student flights are cheap.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 07:07:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is certainly the news of the day.. bigger than Galalrdon blow-out and Catlaonia abstention.

Nothing is bigger than that.. and it seems it is really going to happen: As the minutes go by the tendencies are fixed.

what will happen from now on? Who will govern? what UPN will do? WIll pSOE support UPN and move them out of PP hands .. is it possible?

What will happen? Any guess? I am lost.. i really quite beleive waht I was seeing. PSOE is the third party in Navarra!!!!

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 05:59:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Official results from the Navarran government. With 94.1% of the votes counted, the gap between Na-Bai and PSN is slightly wider:







PartyVote %Seats
UPN42.3(+0.9)22(-1)
Na-Bai23.5(+5.7)12(+4)
PSN24.4(+1.3)12(+1)
IU4.4(-4.4)2(-2)
CDN4.4(-3.3)2(-2)

Participation is 75% vs. 72% in 2003.

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 06:08:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
PP loses Navara.. gee.. and Nafarroa Bai now is the third party...

this is the best news for Zapatero durign all night..

meanwhile E.Aguirre is getting better and better...

No news regardign valencia autonomy meanwhile... and baleriac islands is .. pufff.. is so close to call that I do nto want to go to sleep.. ej jee.. but still trendign slightly right-wing.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 06:17:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nafarroa Bai now is the third party...

Huh? At 95% counted Na-Bai has increased its lead over PSN to 1.2%

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 06:22:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
what????

Thisis amazing... It maight have been a glith.. Nafarroa has been conssitently the second party....

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 06:24:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Update at 23:47

madird city PP blow-out (mdoerate candidate). barceloan city huge abstention (csocial-democrats lose ground but keep it, noa dvances of the right-wing party),. Valencia PP blow-out (hardcore right-wing candidated. Sevilla.. blow-out of PSOE (PP loses even mroe groun).

Communities. Very bad news for Zzpatero in madrid community. hardcore right-wing candidate E. aguirre crosses teh 51% of the vote. Absolute majority... too dangerous for Zapatero.

Valencia Community still right-wing stronghold no movement (just like castilla Leon). On the left-side extremadura, Asturias and Catll- La mmancha still left-wign strongholds.

Big upset: PP loses Navarra... but PSOE doe snot advances.. the natioanalistic take the governemnt out of right-wing hands...

too close to call. Balearic Island.. go figure is like the US elections..

canarian island.. it will all depend on pacts alter on.. but PSOE may increase power.

So I will keep around for some minutes.. waiting for Balearic islands... and then to sleep.

And a final note.. on the municipal election PP will win the over all count by 0.5% of the vote.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 05:52:33 PM EST
Aguirre is going for the blow-out. Above 52 % .. this is terrible for Zapatero... awful...

And Balearic island. The neck and neck community is heading towards PP again by only one seat...

Navarra and canarian island together with 4 spanish big cities are the only good news for Zapatero.. adn Navarra not that much...

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 06:01:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
first news on Balearic islands... 68%

PP    127.971    46,20    29
PSOE    73.769    26,63    15
PSOE+EX    15.209    5,49    6
PSM-EN,    24.438    8,82    4
UM    18.427    6,65    3
AIPF    658    0,24    1
PSM-VER    2.016    0,73    1

It is still 29 (PP) +1 (AIPF) making just the 30 of 59 needed for majority...

Balearic islands going right-wing.... but still not called

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 06:21:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well off to sleep....

And everythign is clear now....

PP won the local election in number of votes becasue the mdoerate major of MAdrid di a blow-out of such epic proportions that it is ahrd to believe and Catlaonia abstain in their local lection in huge number. nevertheless , no big cicites cahnged hands but a bunch of mediium cities went from PP to PSOE (i know of no medium city goign the other way). So PSOE has more majors now than before... but Zapatero can be worried about Catalonia

Regardign Autonomous communities, the big news is NAvarra.. and Canarian Islands.. in both the right.wing loses.. but Navarra is bigger than htat becasue is int he middle of the ETa process..a nd becasue the antioanlistic party took the government from PP.. the center-left in Navarra becomes the thrid-pary ...who they will support.

And again the stronghold are still the strongholds for both aprties. But the MAdrid community bringing more bad news for ZP. The hardcore right-wing candidate Esperanza Aguirre reached almsot blow-out proportion, increasing strongly her support almsot close to 53% winning like 5% of the vote... huge.. So a slightly right-wing community is going to become a PP stronghold.. and the capital are if it was not worrying enough. Other socialisty and right-wign strongholds remained unmoved... so there is no compensation effect.

And again the Balearic Island went to right-wing  by 30-29 seats...

And my beloved city remains the same.. nobody voting for right-wing parties almost...

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 06:51:18 PM EST
In the city of Madrid, Aguirre got 55,13% to 55.54% for Gallardón, so even there it's a dead heat and not exactly good news for moderates.

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 27th, 2007 at 07:03:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Who was Aguirre in Aznar times?

Can you demonstrate her hard-right-wingedness with some quotes or policies?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon May 28th, 2007 at 04:51:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Aguirre [Spanish wikipedia] is a "Liberal" (doesn't come from the post-francoist AP but from small liberal parties that ended up merging with AP into the PP). She has been:
  • 1983-6: in the Madrid city council with with the "Liberal Union" (within the CP coalition)
  • 1987: joins AP and remains in the city council
  • 1989: after a motion of no confidence on the Socialist mayor, she takes charge of the Environment potfolio at the city council
  • 1991: same post, plus "3rd Lieutenant Mayor"
  • 1995: "1st Lieutenant Mayor" and council majority leader. The PP nominated them to the board of trustees of Caja Madrid
  • 1996: Member of the National Executive Committee of the PP, Senator for Madrid and Minister of Education and Culture
  • 1999: President of the Senate
  • 2003: President of the Madrid Autonomous Community (replaced Gallardón who moved to the City Council) though this required the alleged bribery of two PSOE parlamentarians and the repetition of the elections.

She's widely regarded as the likely choice of the hardliners to replace Rajoy after the latter loses in 2008.


Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon May 28th, 2007 at 05:00:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There is an unofficial site dedicated to character-assassinating her: http://www.esperanzaaguirre.net but there's so much stuff in there I don't even know where to begin.

While she was Minister of Education and Culture she pushed religious education and "parent choice" as a way to support private schools over the public system. Se also made a number of unfortunate ignorant comments (like calling the writer Jose Saramago "the famous painter Sara Mago" - I kid you not) and as a result she got a reputation of being dumb. She clearly is not an idiot, and is a smooth political operator.

A couple of years ago there was some sort of internal selection process in teh Madrid PP (a kind of primary) and Gallardon's right-hand man ran against Aguirre. The viciousness of the attacks the Aguirre faction rained on Gallardon's candidate was such that they were forced to withdraw.

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon May 28th, 2007 at 05:11:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, after taking control of the public TV channel Telemadrid, there has even been a strike by the news staff to protest the level of political manipulation. Check out http://salvemostelemadrid.es/

Telemadrid even made a documentary about March 11 supporting the conspiracy theories that the PSOE and ETA are responsible. Allegedly the documentary was made on instructions from Aguirre

In case there remained any doubts  about the intentions of this video, the note that Manuel Soriano (director general of the public entity RTV-Madrid) sent to Regino García-Badell (chief of staff ot the President of the Madrid Autonomous Community, Esperanza Aguirre) clears them completely: Dear Regino. I send you the first part of the documentary we're showing Thursday and Friday in `prime time' [in English in the original]. Pass it on to the President. I think it turned out quite well cinematographically and ideologically. Hugs. Manolo The note is more than enough to dismiss Manuel Soriano and those who commissioned the video (Esperanza Aguirre?).


Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon May 28th, 2007 at 05:22:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That is appalling.

And so is that thing about Jose Saramago, although for different reasons.  Actually, I'd be willing to make every single one of Saramago's books required reading for anyone seeking political office.

by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Tue May 29th, 2007 at 04:01:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thank you kcurie and migeru for the excellent coverage and commentary!

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Mon May 28th, 2007 at 05:52:46 AM EST
Seconded!
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon May 28th, 2007 at 04:16:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Eppp.. a real pleasure...

I just hope it interested someone ..

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue May 29th, 2007 at 05:39:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
As long as it interested you and me... Blogging is for oneself ;-)

The economy needs to be thought of as a garden, not as a wild ecosystem
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 29th, 2007 at 05:53:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Basque independentist party Batasuna was made illegal a few years ago on the grounds that it is ETA's political arm, and all its future incarnations are supposed to be illegal as well. This extend to a party called "ANV" which I believe is simply a collection of voter asociations in eash municipality. Many of ANV's lists have been made illegal. ETA sympathisers usually go and vote all the same, resulting in "null" votes.
So, for the local elections, let's compare the national totals with the results in the Basque country...
National totalBasque Country
Abstention36.22%39.67%
Votes63.78%60.33%
Null Votes1.17%8.28%
Blank Votes1.90%1.84%
EAJ-PNV1.39%31.12%
PSE-EE/PSOE34.90%24.37%
PP35.60%15.46%
EAE-ANV0.43%7.40%
EA0.33%7.03%
If one added the excess null vote in the Basque country (7.11%) to the ANV tally, they would have gotten 14.51%, nearly as much as the PP.

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon May 28th, 2007 at 06:12:43 AM EST
I calculated what the result of the election would have been if all the votes in the local elections had been instead votes in a general election. Apparently, this has become a popular pastime as there are several such estimates in this escolar post. My estimate is:

PP 143(-5) [right]
PSOE 143(-21) [centre left]
IU/IC/V 16(+11) [united left, green left]
CiU 16(+6) [centre right catalan nationalist]
PNV 8(+1) [centre right basque nationalist]
ERC 6(-2) [extreme left catalan nationalist]
BNG 5(+3) [extreme left galician nationalist]
CC 5(+2) [centre-right canary nationalist]
PA 2(+2) [andalusian nationalist]
NB 1(-) [basque nationalists from navarra]
NCA 1(+1_ [canary nationalist]
PAR 1(+1) [aragonese regionalist]
PRC 1(+1) [centre right cantabrian regionalist]
EA 1(-) [left basque nationalist]
ANV 1(+1) [extreme left basque independentist]


The economy needs to be thought of as a garden, not as a wild ecosystem
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon May 28th, 2007 at 07:42:53 PM EST
This mostly shows that in the general elections the PSOE benefits from a huge "useful vote" appeal.

The economy needs to be thought of as a garden, not as a wild ecosystem
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon May 28th, 2007 at 07:58:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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