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Age and Vote

by Laurent GUERBY Wed May 9th, 2007 at 08:54:09 AM EST

From IPSOS poll just after the vote, voters aged 60-69 were 61% for Nicolas Sarkozy, 70+ were 68%, retired voters were 65%.

Nicolas Sarkozy won by +3.06%, it is thus clear that this advantage amongst the elder and retired vote is the source of the victory and by far.

Retired voters represent about 30% of the voters (my estimate interpolated from 2004 data below).

Share of retired voters will increase with time, what will be the consequence on future politics?

From the diaries - whataboutbob


Display:
25-35 voted Sarko at 57%

If you remove the young idiots and the from May68 generation, a large part of the population voted Sarko ;-)

What do you want to do euthanasie, that is not very tolerant. LOL

People are usually going right as they get older (they are learning ;-) ), it is not new.

by the  way, it was the last throw of the old Lepen, and without the very useful FN, i do not see the left being able to get the power back.

Mitterand has been an accident, France is a right-wing country.

by fredouil (fredouil@gmailgmailgmail.com) on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 05:34:22 AM EST
Mitterand has been an accident, France is a right-wing country.

Not really. But I would agree that it is really hard for the left to attain power. When they do, great progress results, followed by long periods of stasis under right-wing governments.

The right wing elite everywhere is composed of those who believe they own their country, and unfortunately the people often act as if they do.

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 05:39:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"I would agree that it is really hard for the left to attain power"

I've been thinking about that. Is it because normally right wing platforms tap more easily into the individual emotions? Us against them (the immigrants, the foreigners, the perverts, the lazy welfare queens? We know people tend to think the best of themselves and so it's much easier and self reassuring to assume the others are the problem.

The left on the other end tends to call for things like solidarity, social responsibility, tolerance. That means assuming others have more value than we are emotionaly ready to do in many cases.

On the right you have to look for groups like christian democrats to find people willing to overcome that right wing bias against "the other". But in a secularized Europe those are getting scarce.

Just some random thoughts....

by Torres on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 06:06:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Theory 1: Suppose party L appeals to the 55% worse off, and party R appeals to the 55% better off. There is a 10% block of swing voters in the middle. Now take people's tendency to identify with the better off, if not because they are, because they hope to be.

Theory 2: Suppose you have 30% authoritarian voters who want a Father figure and a leader to follow, i.e., someone who appears to know where they're going (even if they don't) and who says what they intend to do (even if it's impossible) rather than promising to facilitate a broad consensus on a set of important issues. On policy, a candidate who fits that profile only needs to appeal to 30% of the population in order to win. This can be done by populist candidates of the left, too, of course.

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 06:18:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Theory 3: Suppose the media are owned by supporters of a specific party, who direct their coverage in support of one direction.

As in, TF1 was showing on Tuesday night, right after the champion's league semi final, a documentary on "people who cheat on welfare and Social Scurity"

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 08:25:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In the states, it wasn't just Fox who skew(er)ed the news to get the Bushites elected.

It was Jack Welsh as the president of General Electric, the owner of NBC, who was adamant about how their interests were in getting Bush elected and anyone who didn't toe the line would be fired. He made it an issue with other media owners, who apparently followed suit.

And the way they characterize anyone they disagree with really creates a spiteful person. No amount of data will change their minds.

I don't see a way out of this...even though only a few percentage of people needed to vote the other way...in so many close elections.

Never underestimate their intelligence, always underestimate their knowledge.

Frank Delaney ~ Ireland

by siegestate (siegestate or beyondwarispeace.com) on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 03:10:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Unfortunately the power structure of the media which can influence opinions greatly is controlled by the owners who control the neocons in government in order to pass their agenda.

The only way these days a socialist or left leaning person can be elected is if there are catastrophic economic events or the media's owners sour on their own neocon children due to their incompetence. Unfortunately most voters don't read or have the time to read but get their information from the TV. The best hope the left have is for economic tremors or incompetence even the media can't spin away.

by An American in London on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 09:06:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Spain seems to be peculiar in that the largest media group (PRISA) is left-leaning. Right-wing bloggers talk about "PRISOE", and there seems to be an effort underway to consolidate the right-wing media into a comparable group. PRISA's media, especially the radio station Cadena SER, was instrumental in challenging the government's media blitz (and blackout) on March 11-14, 2004. But it seems Zapatero is too much of a lefty even for PRISA, to judge by some critical El Pais' editorials.

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 09:13:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
On a similar subject, Libération with its current line : The PS must become a center-right, social liberal party is extremely annoying.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 09:19:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The PSOE is already there, apparently.

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 09:23:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The admiration supposedly demonstrated by Sarkozy for the Portuguese PM, José Sócrates, on his push to reduce the number of public servants suggests the portuguese PS in not far from that either.
by Torres on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 09:51:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The UK has almost completely outsourced public servants to the private sector. They should look at the results.

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 09:58:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The media owners don't control anyone, they're just opportunistic above everything else. The republicans are pro cutting taxes for the rich and are more inclined than the Dems to write in regulations that favour large existing entrenched corporate interests over potential competitors. I think it was Sumner Redstone who explained that while he may personally be inclined to favour the Dems, the Repubs are better for Viacom. It's selfishness, not ideology that's the driving force for most of them, with a few exceptions (e.g. Murdoch).
by MarekNYC on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 06:36:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Selfishness - the profit motive - isn't a keystone of ideology?

That is, I don't mean to contradict what you say, but, when someone adopts a position out of expediency, they become a channel for the ideology that position assumes.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu May 10th, 2007 at 02:18:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's selfishness, not ideology that's the driving force for most of them, with a few exceptions (e.g. Murdoch).

However, I contend that liberalism has become an ideology putting "liberty" at the service of an "inalienable right to private property", which is just selfishness.

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu May 10th, 2007 at 04:39:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sounds just like Sweden, except replace "left" with "right". ;)

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 01:17:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You like aristocrats too much for not being one yourself.

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 02:32:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Our aristocrats are spread through left and right. Actually. From conservatives, through liberals and soc dems to communists.  

But only the right has an Imperial Austro-Hungarian princess, if a rather ugly one. But that's runs in the family, I'm afraid.

And I do confess there is a small part of my brain that has been replaced with a sign saying "Kings? What a great idea!"

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 05:26:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And I don't think it's a left/right issue.

No matter who is in charge they will become stagnant, corrupt and help only themselves if they sit at what we in Sweden call "the meat pots of power" for 15+ years without any rule by the opposition.

And we once had soc dems in charge for 40(!) years. 1936-1976. Without anyone else in charge. Even so, the best prime minister we ever had, Tage Erlander, was in charge most of that time, 1946-1969, for 23 years, in a democratic country!

The decline of the soc dems began we he left in 1969, and the awful may '68 people began taking over. We have had to deal with them since, though the new 2006 government is the first we have ever had which is composed of post-68 people, probably the reason I like it so much, on top of the reason that change is a good in itself, as the earlier government has been in charge for 12 years, since 1994.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Thu May 10th, 2007 at 04:27:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is the second time today I see a suggestion that the Left created or used Le Pen.

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 05:41:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Mitterrand did help the rise of Le Pen - notably by bringing proportional vote for the 1986 elections to parliament. He saw that as a way to "neuter" a portion of the right wing vote by making it toxic for the traditional right to ally with the hard right and thus becoming smaller than the mainstream left.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 05:45:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Jerome, you are of course correct but I'd like to add 2 points about the "Mitterand created the FN" meme.

First, its something thats been pushed by the RPR cum UMP for some time, well out of proportion. Its become, as far as I can tell, equivalent to the "liberals created poverty through welfare" talking point used by the new right in the US.

SEcond and more precisely, Mitterand's gambit in 86 was specifically aimed at Chirac, not the right per se. ITs more precise to say that CHirac, who had become the leader of the RPR-UDF alliance for the 86 legislatives, would not cooperate with the FN, and the use of proporational was to minimize Chirac's majority. It was not a view universally shared on the right, and Mitterand was as much trying to spearate Chirac from parts of his coalition over this tactical issue, as he was trying to defeat the right.

For whatever reason -- conviction, political miscalculation but mostly likely an instinctive tendency to view rivals on the right as his greatest enemies -- always kept a distance from LePen. Not everyone or even most among the leaders on the right shared this vew; as evident for instance in the aftermath of the 98 regional elections.

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 05:22:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Chirac's outright refusal to deal with Le Pen is something (one of the few things) to his credit, and indeed Mitterrand played on it.

As to your wider point, you're correct. The Front National started becoming stronger in the early 80s, with some upset scores in by-elections and local elections (it was, I think Jean-Marie Stirbois in Dreux in 1983 which created the first headlines with a double digit score for the party), and Mitterrand cynically took advantage of it, but did not really create the phenomenon.

But Mitterrand and Le Pen were both MPs in the 50s, and it's not clear to me what links they had then.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 06:13:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
that age class is the one that has just started working and sees bright prospects in front of it; it pays taxes for the first time (and being often single, pays more than others in France); it has little need for healthcare; it does not have children yet, or very young ones only, so does not worry too much about school quality and access to doctors; pension is still a far off problem.

In a nutshell, these are the people that see themselves as independent and self-reliant and productive and are unhappy to pay for others's needs, which they don't relate to - never mind how their education was paid for, how the State has built the infrastructure that allows their employers to prosper, and how they might get older and sicker in the future...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 05:50:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But when I were a lad, that age was the one still demonstrating about inequality. The poll tax protesters in the 80s were exactly from that age group. At the time, many of them were far more politically engaged than I was.

Today, that age group seems uniformly apathetic, not to mention ignorant of politics.

There's been a kind of surgical excision of dissent from the public discourse. It seems to be something young people mostly just don't do any more - very much possibly because there's no longer any tradition of it for them to relate to.

dKos is notoriously middle-aged, and with a few exceptions most people here are 30s-50s.

We're possibly the only ones who can remember a narrative of equal opportunity being fought for. The older generation hated the narrative, the younger generation have never seen it in action.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 11:51:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Some years agora i read of a generation "Bah..." a generation of youngsters unlike any other before them: they wanted to be like their parents and their only concern was to extend their material comforts into adult life. Could it be they have come of age already?
by Torres on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 12:50:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I have worked with several sales-position 'youths' recently from Germany, France and the US. They all are getting and repeating the mantra about how they are contributing to the old who are retired and they will never see any social benefits and they are overpaying taxes and and and...

Sad really.

Never underestimate their intelligence, always underestimate their knowledge.

Frank Delaney ~ Ireland

by siegestate (siegestate or beyondwarispeace.com) on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 03:03:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Considering that I participated in an election campaign with a party consisting mostly of people under the age of 25 (and thousands of them), it might not surprise you that I beg to differ with the general consensus of this sub-thread.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 10:03:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The discussion was about the over-25s. In the French election, the under-25s voted heavily for Royal.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu May 10th, 2007 at 02:21:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"heavily": just 58, far less heavily than retired/elders.
by Laurent GUERBY on Thu May 10th, 2007 at 03:06:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yup, about 4:3 for Royal doesn't look like "heavily".

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu May 10th, 2007 at 04:37:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sorry, misread the discussion. Though (barely) over-25s are also quite frequent among the pirates.

So what is discussed are the 25-35s? I do not know about France, but in Sweden that is the age group that bore most of the burden for the bad years of the early 90ies. Low employment rate, raised fees on services, lower subsidies hit hardest on the least established groups on the job market, and the 25-35s were entering at the time. What conclusions you draw from such an experience may vary, but if there is a similar pattern in France, that might be part of the explanation.

If it is similar in France, I have a scenario for you:

It is one thing that France is not worse of (but rather better of) then the anglo economies. If you are in your early 30ies and have been jumping between different temporary jobs and never entering the realm of "real" jobs with security, what do you stand to loose if someone says that it is the stiff rules fault? The rules keep the oldies in and you out. If the rules were removed everyone could get good jobs (or at least you get a fair chance too compete with the oldies for theirs). What do you have to loose? Nothing!

What I think the left needs to get its groove back are plans for full employment.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Thu May 10th, 2007 at 10:19:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
France's 35 hours were the boldest attempt by anyone anywhere to have a stab at full employment, and you see how it turned out.

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu May 10th, 2007 at 10:36:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It worked, but was successfully demonized. So what's the lesson for you?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu May 10th, 2007 at 04:51:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Socialist themselves didn't really have the strength of conviction to fight for it.

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu May 10th, 2007 at 06:08:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
the young idiots

The tone of many of your comments is in the direction of raising the voting age to 25...

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 05:51:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If retired/elders voted "only 57" for NS (like the "idiots" did for Royal :), he would likely have lost.

The scale of the voting direction is not the same.

I'm just pondering what politics will look like in France in the coming decades.

by Laurent GUERBY on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 06:40:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sclerotic?

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 06:45:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Bloated?

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson
by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 07:29:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Your new sig line is depressing because it contains too much truth.

Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.
by technopolitical on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 01:56:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, the old conservative retirees will die off, while that even larger retiree base will be the babyboomers and the '68ers (that presently pre-retiree group that also voted Royal by majority). So it's not clear-cut what will be.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 10:56:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Gender may have indeed been a factor for the elderly... They have their own reasons and intuitions.
by das monde on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 08:20:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
People are usually going right as they get older

Well, you know how your body decays as you grow older...

(With apologies to the elderly)

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde

by NordicStorm (m<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 01:39:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Your reference to generations raises an important point: At any given time, differences between one cohort and another look like differences between one age and another. These must be disentangled before one can project what will happen as a cohort ages. Retiring liberal age-groups will tend to behave differently from retiring conservatives and retirees per se will tend to behave differently from younger people.

Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.
by technopolitical on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 01:47:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Research apparently supports the proposition that cohort, not age, is the primary determinant of party affiliation. (The stability of policy preferences in an aging cohort is a different question.)

Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.
by technopolitical on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 01:59:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Following the links I found this interactive map with results of the election, by communes. Consider my morning lost.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 05:43:21 AM EST
My commune : abstention 10%

Sarkozy: 43%
Royal :  57%

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 05:50:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
  • I grew up in Oust (09), 57.55% Royal
  • I studied in Seix (09), 71.16% Royal
  • I studied in Saint-Girons (09), 58.06% Royal
  • I studied in Toulouse (31), 57.60% Royal
  • I studied in Brest (29), 56.87% Royal
  • I'm in Paris 2eme (75002), 54.08% Royal

Eh eh :)
by Laurent GUERBY on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 06:46:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I forgot:

* I own house and land in Soueix-Rogalle, 68.16% Royal.

by Laurent GUERBY on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 06:51:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Soueix-Rogalle (09).
by Laurent GUERBY on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 06:51:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And you work in ? :)

And 09 is Ariège. pretty easy to find Royal voters there :)

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 08:23:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yup. 57% in my commune, of which the mayor is... UMP candidate in the coming parliamentary elections...
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 08:37:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I work in 75009 (300 meters from home, on the 75002/009 frontier) where Nicolas Sarkozy won by a small amount IIRC.
by Laurent GUERBY on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 08:39:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Some UMP members are not that happy with local results of the latest elections.

http://www.lemonde.fr/web/article/0,1-0@2-823448,36-907779@51-906866,0.html


A un an des municipales, le phénomène Royal menace l'UDF et l'UMP dans de nombreuses grandes villes

LE MONDE | 09.05.07 | 15h11  *  Mis à jour le 09.05.07 | 15h11

Victorieuse à la présidentielle, la droite a enregistré des scores médiocres dans de nombreuses villes, qui pourraient menacer des fiefs UMP et UDF à un an des municipales de mars 2008, même si les enjeux locaux dominent dans ce type de scrutin. Ségolène Royal a enregistré d'excellents scores qui inquiètent Jean-Pierre Raffarin (UMP). A Bordeaux, la candidate PS réalise 55,54 % des voix. Elle arrive même en tête dans la circonscription législative du maire (UMP) Alain Juppé. L'Aquitaine a connu une vague rose qui pourrait inquiéter Xavier Darcos, maire (UMP) de Périgueux (Dordogne), où Mme Royal obtient 54,54 %.

En Auvergne, Clermont-Ferrand a voté massivement pour la socialiste (57,43 %), ce qui rend difficile une éventuelle candidature de Brice Hortefeux, proche de M. Sarkozy, à la mairie en 2008. En Normandie, Mme Royal obtient 55,6 % des voix à Caen, ce qui peut laisser espérer à la gauche une reconquête de la ville, actuellement dirigée par l'UMP Brigitte Le Brethon. En Midi-Pyrénées, la candidate socialiste a réalisé de bons scores dans au moins trois villes dirigées par la droite : Cahors (59 %), Tarbes (56,55 %) et Albi (54,29 %). En outre-mer, Mme Royal arrive en tête à Saint-Denis de la Réunion (56,51 %), dirigée par l'UMP René-Paul Victoria. L'ancien maire (PS) Gilbert Annette peut espérer reconquérir son fauteuil en 2008.
[...]
La plupart des villes UDF ont voté majoritairement pour Mme Royal, même lorsque leur maire avait pris position pour Nicolas Sarkozy, comme c'est le cas à Blois, où Nicolas Perruchot avait appelé à voter, entre les deux tours, pour le candidat de l'UMP.
[...]


by Laurent GUERBY on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 09:40:52 AM EST
We are starting to see the Urban/periurban divide of the US in France, it seems. The Bourgeoisie is fleeing the downtowns, away from the Bobos, to suburban villas. It is going to lose the center towns... At least a good thing :=)

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 09:46:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Not quite everywhere...

With 81% for NS, the 16th arrondissement is still safe for bourgeois...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 10:05:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
According to the Pinçon-Charlot, a sociologist couple who study the "aristocracy", the highest bourgeoisie has been forced to move to keep its social segregation intact, away from stores and business (The Champs Elysées quarter being an example). The 16th is already the suburbs :)

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 10:28:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
My impression about Toulouse is that it's younger middle-class couples from the suburbs who are moving out to the peri-urban areas, not the centre-city bourgeois themselves.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 10:14:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Middle class can go high on the earning scale ; I'm thinking of doctors, lawyers, professionals who formed the downtown right wing basis. The true old Bourgeoisie on the other hand is able to keep both its downtown hôtel particulier and its manoir in the countryside for the week ends.

(I might be becoming caricatural here :))

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 10:31:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We are starting to see the Urban/periurban divide of the US in France, it seems. The Bourgeoisie is fleeing the downtowns, away from the Bobos, to suburban villas.

That phenomenon has gone into reverse for many US cities  giving us the gentrification domino effect. Unless by 'bourgeoisie' you mean middle income and exclude the upper middle class - i.e. a definition that keeps professionals out of the bourgeoisie while encompassing better off working class. The middle can't afford urban housing so they move to the exurbs, the poor get better social services in urban areas, the bourgeoisie has choices and has increasingly been choosing urban over suburban.

by MarekNYC on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 06:11:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'd say in France, with the exception of Paris, the middle class and upper middle class, who can't afford a house in the downtowns (which are rare), are starting to leave them, and getting a house in the close suburbs (chasing away the middle/lower middle classes that lived there). A problem in France is that urban housing was partly built with 19th century norms of occupation ; 4 bedrooms appartments are pretty rare.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 06:51:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's the difference - here they're often moving to the poor and middle class urban neighbourhoods next door instead of going to the suburbs. Can't afford a place on the Upper West Side? - Move to Harlem or Greenpoint. The middle/lower middle class runs for the burbs, the poor are screwed.
by MarekNYC on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 07:01:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
4 bedroom appts may or may not be rare but a large proportion of urban housing stock was built after ww2. This is an important point, in comparison with the US, which did not increase its urban housing stock very much after the war, instead allowing suburban sprawl and many of the resulting problems of the American economy -- disproproportionate energy consumption per capita, disproportionate carbon emissions per capita, lack of affordable housing in many cities, high geographic segregation by race and income, etc.
by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 10:24:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I was still hoping we could locate a poll that'd give participation per age group so that we can confirm the most peculiar demographics of the vote according to IPSOS (i.e. 57% for Sarko among 24-35 y.o.)

In the meantimes, I assumed that each age grouping had similar participation/registration levels and tried to reproduce the outcome using the "population per age" statistics you cited and the % for each candidate per age group given by IPSOS. I came up with 55% of the vote for Sarko. I think the discrepancy (versus 53%) can only be explained if my assumption about participation/registration levels is false because it is conceivably higher among ages favorable to Sarko (seniors).

by Fete des fous on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 11:37:13 AM EST
Data is rounded to the closest percent, that might an explanation too for a 2% total.

Of course assumption of participation/registration can bias too.

by Laurent GUERBY on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 05:42:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sad, because it is the unretired people who are the ones being told to work more by the people the retired vote for.
by pelcan on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 06:00:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So, that settles the intterogaton about the IFOP poll discussed in a previous diary of anEstranSurMer, I guess.
The discordance between the 2 IFOP polls within a week was due to the second one being totally wrong for the 25-34, and wrong for the over 65, the first one being the accurate one?

Or is this IPSOS "exit poll" also doubtful? I was disappointed to read it was made by phone and with the quota method. Couldn't they do it directly at the exit of the poll?

La répartie est dans l'escalier. Elle revient de suite.

by lacordaire on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 04:29:22 PM EST
All the polls per age range have given the largest advantage to Nicolas Sarkozy amongst all age categories.

No poll gave less than 65% for Nicolas Sarkozy amongst the retired/65+.

Of course there's always bias and error margin, but here it's pretty safe to affirm that the massive retired/elder vote is the source of the victory.

by Laurent GUERBY on Wed May 9th, 2007 at 05:45:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Are there any polls regarding the coming parliamentary elections out yet?

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Thu May 10th, 2007 at 05:47:15 AM EST
Yes, and its ugly. I haven't seen it but a friend write me today about the Canard reporting that PS sources say they'll do well to break 100 seats and allies on the left will only win about a dozen. Without an alliance (which is looking less and less likely), Bayrou's Mouvement Democratique is in a position to win between 4 and 8. That would leave the UMP with >450 seats.

The reason is that in a lot of places where the FN vote made the run-off into a 3-way race, those FN voters are now likely to back the UMP candidate.

My sense is those numbers could improve as the "glow" of the election fades; on the other hand, when Sarkozy appoints the new government, thats likely to give his party a boost.

LeMonde reported that in another 25 seats (of which 24 are held by UMP incumbents or UDF who will be running on the UMP ballot this time,) an alliance of the MD and the PS after the first round could generate a winner.

The only real hope for a competitive election for th ePS would come from a strong showing by the FN, a weak showing by the PCF and Verts (whom the PS may be inclined to try to close out entirely to gain control over the left), and a Sarkozy government that lurches to the right between now and June. Only the weak showing by the PCF and Verts seems likely.

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Thu May 10th, 2007 at 10:44:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
One other point -- LeMonde's analysis is based on calculations using the percentages from the PResidential vote and then estimating a different turnout dynamic, one in whcih there is a significant drop off (primarily on the left) from the Presidential.

Also, the PS infighting has become vicious already, topped off by the breaking news about Royal and Hollande,so its looking more and more like sauve qui peut.

In the longer term, its quite clear that a governing majority is going to be possibly only with an alliance with Bayrou's voters, and that in turn will be possibly only if those voters follow Bayrou into the opposition. So root for Bayrou's MD to do well in the legislatives.

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Thu May 10th, 2007 at 10:47:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What breaking news about Royal and Hollande?

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu May 10th, 2007 at 10:50:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I checked around and the on;y relevant report of a poll I could find is here, mentioning that:

Separate opinion polls published in France on Thursday provided positive news for president-elect Nicolas Sarkozy but a harsh assesment of the legacy of his predecessor Jaques Chirac. According to projections from the BVA Institute, Sarkozy will be able to rally a clear parliamentary majority around his reform agenda.

His UMP party can likely count on between 288 and 344 mandates in the upcoming June parliamentary polls, compared to 158 to 200 seats for the rival Socialist Party.

The new centralist Democratic Party of Francois Bayrou is projected to score between 8 and 13 seats, the Communist Party 14 to 18 and the remaining handful of seats to be distributed among Green Party lawmakers and independent conservatives.

Which is slightly more optimistic than Le Monde's projections...

I'm not sure as to what percentages of the vote these numbers correspond to, but whatever they might be, it's a very disproportionate system indeed...

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Thu May 10th, 2007 at 11:59:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I heard this poll mentioned on the news this morning, and now I've tracked it down (pdf).

The projected assembly would not seem hugely different from the present one.

Bayrou would lose seats. Most of his people have joined up with Sarko and don't understand what he's playing at. He's hoping to prise social democrats away from the PS, of course. Sarkozy is trying to outdo him on this. He already has a number of historic Mitterand supporters (non-political personnel) who backed him (Roger Hanin, Max Gallo, Pascal Sevran, Jacques Séguéla), he picked up Eric Besson during the campaign, and is playing with Hubert Védrine (former Foreign Sec) and Claude Allègre (former Education Minister), both of whom have had to deny they were going to be ministers. (Allègre was outed leaving Sarko's HQ by a side entrance, wearing shades, I kid you not.) This is Sarko's way of showing he holds the cards and Bayrou is going to pay for his cheek. As he may well.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu May 10th, 2007 at 12:27:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And that's with a 6% difference between the PS and the UMP in the Presidential? Now tell me that, had Segolene won, the PS would have gotten 300 seats. That's a broken electoral system, it makes no sense.

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu May 10th, 2007 at 10:48:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
As I recall from British election surveys and studies following the same people over several elections, the historic tendency is for age cohorts of electors to drift right as they get older. I do not know if this pattern is seen in other countries like France.

It is also the British experience that older people are more likely to vote than younger ones.

by Gary J on Thu May 10th, 2007 at 08:47:15 AM EST
I guess it's far more visible in France than elsewhere.
by Laurent GUERBY on Thu May 10th, 2007 at 04:42:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's common wisdom in psephology, it holds true for all political systems with a traditional left-right- pattern.

"If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles." Sun Tzu
by Turambar (sersguenda at hotmail com) on Thu May 10th, 2007 at 05:34:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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