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French 2007 legislative elections

by Laurent GUERBY Mon Jun 11th, 2007 at 03:40:45 AM EST

A landslide victory is predicted for UMP (right, Nicolas Sarkozy party).

7640 candidates are seeking votes for 577 seats.

Current composition of the french national assembly is 362 UMP (right), 6 DVD (misc right), 142 PS (left), 29 UDF (center), 22 PCF (communist) and 3 Green (plus other misc or vacant seats).

Turnout is 49.28% at 17:00, was 50.51% in 2002, so lowest intermediate turnout in 20 years.

From the diaries - afew


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Candidates with more than 12.5% of registered voters can present themselves to the second round (but they can drop out). Candidates with more than 50% of votes cast are elected at the first round.

In my area (Paris 1st), a Green party candidate, Martine Billard, has been selected by PS-PRG-Green. Might be one of the only green elected.

Clickable maps available courtesy of candidats.fr, a grass root effort to make candidates sign le pacte du logiciel libre (free software pact);

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Jun 10th, 2007 at 12:36:41 PM EST
seems a more important information, somehow, today...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Jun 10th, 2007 at 01:11:01 PM EST
What? Didn't you hear? Paris Hilton is back in jail! :)
by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Jun 10th, 2007 at 01:23:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x27xfa_non-sarkozy-netait-pas-ivre-resume

(I've been trying to embed it, but it crashes my browser each time)

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Jun 10th, 2007 at 01:37:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's absolutely hilarious if you turn the sound off.
by Fran on Sun Jun 10th, 2007 at 01:58:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Was he seasick?  It is funny with the lip biting and the right hand "disappearing"....  

In the clip I saw at lunch time, before he asked for questions, he really seemed  under the influence of something, or he had ants in his pants.

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.

by metavision on Sun Jun 10th, 2007 at 03:22:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How did the French Parliament become so unimportant? Has the 5th Republic finally become the elective monarchy that De Gaulle wanted?

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 10th, 2007 at 03:57:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, thanks to Lionel Jospin and the PS.

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
by Melanchthon on Sun Jun 10th, 2007 at 04:51:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They didn't seem to care much about the elections this time around. Their result serves them right. Too bad the rest of France has to pay the cosequences of single-party rule.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 10th, 2007 at 04:55:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Aligning the presidential and the parliamentary terms (5 years each) turns the National Assembly into an echo chamber, and the parliamentary elections into a rubber stamp.

Which also largely explains the low turn-out.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Jun 11th, 2007 at 03:05:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Parliaments became in Western style democracies somewhat sick. It's not only because of executive lust for power but also from Western model of democracy where all rights belong to limited circle of media barons and riches who can afford their services. Russia in this respect is not different from the West.
by FarEasterner on Mon Jun 11th, 2007 at 06:01:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There has been talk of a "crisis of democracy" for a few decades now, and analysist try to figure out what's wrong with the people. I think it just means that the oligarchy can no longer rule undisturbed, and there's nothing wrong with the people but with Democracy™. The drive to approve the European "mini treaty" in the parliaments without a referendum is an example of this.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jun 11th, 2007 at 06:08:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]


La majorité présidentielle aurait obtenu entre 46 % et 47 % des suffrages au premier tour des législatives, dimanche, selon les premières estimations. Cinq semaines après la victoire de Nicolas Sarkozy, le chiffre de l'abstention bat un record, entre 38 % et 40 %. Le Parti socialiste et l'ensemble de la gauche (PC, Verts, MRC, PRG) obtiendraient entre 35,5 % et 36,5 %. Le MoDem serait entre 6,5 % et 7,5 %, le FN entre 4 % et 5 %, et les autres candidats recueilleraient 3 %

From the front page of Le Monde.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Jun 10th, 2007 at 02:23:59 PM EST
CSA gives about 39% non-voting.

Liberation estimates:

http://www.liberation.fr/actualite/politiques/legislative/260300.FR.php


Taux de vote
Extr. Gauche:  3,3%. PC:  4,5%. PS:  27,2%. Divers Gauche: 1,1%. Verts:  2,8%. Modem:  7,4%. Nouveau Centre:  1,8%. UMP & alliés:  41,3%. Divers Droite:  3,3%. FN:  4,2%. CPNT: 0,9%. Régionalistes: 0,2%. Autres:  2%

Projection en sièges à l'Assemblée nationale
PC: entre 9 et 15 sièges. PS et alliés: entre 60 et 90 sièges. Verts: entre 0 et 2 sièges. Modem: entre 0 et 2 sièges. Nouveau Centre: entre 20 et 25 sièges. UMP & alliés: entre 440 et 470 sièges. Divers Droite dont MPF: entre 2 et 6 sièges. Les autres partis recueilleraient 0 sièges.

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Jun 10th, 2007 at 02:44:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ouch.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Jun 10th, 2007 at 03:11:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So 43:28 in vote percentage translates to 455:75 in seats?

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 10th, 2007 at 03:59:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well it's anything but proportional...

http://www.lemonde.fr/web/depeches/0,14-0,39-31228494@7-37,0.html


Selon Ipsos-Dell, la droite recueille 45,8% (383-447 sièges), la gauche 35,7% (126-185 sièges), le MoDem 7,3% (entre un et quatre sièges), l'extrême droite 5%.
by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Jun 10th, 2007 at 04:33:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
the effect of first-past-the-post?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Jun 10th, 2007 at 05:48:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]


In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Jun 10th, 2007 at 05:47:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks for the democratic senate, which has 60 leftwing members, the constitutions will still have to be respected...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sun Jun 10th, 2007 at 08:49:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How does the senate work and how is it (s)elected?

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jun 11th, 2007 at 06:09:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Senate is elected by "grand electeurs", that means mayors and other elected people (150 000) and it means more or less a land based representation.

Fifth republic senate has always been on the right. They can block new laws, and they do so for foreigner vote for example.

Details here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senate_of_France

by Laurent GUERBY on Mon Jun 11th, 2007 at 06:49:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
http://www.lemonde.fr/web/article/0,1-0@2-823448,36-921440@51-921293,0.html

110 elected first round (only one PS), so 467 left for second round next sunday.

by Laurent GUERBY on Mon Jun 11th, 2007 at 02:19:37 AM EST
http://www.liberation.fr/actualite/politiques/legislative/260409.FR.php


Selon les projections de la Sofres, la droite occuperait de 405 à 445 des 577 sièges de l'hémicycle, le PS disposerait de 100 à 140 sièges, le PCF de 6 à 12, et les Verts de 1 à 3.

http://www.lemonde.fr/web/article/0,1-0@2-823448,36-921402@51-921293,0.html

360-420 UMP (right)
21-24 NC (center-right)
1-4 Modem (center)
0-3 Green
120-170 PS (left)
6-12 communist

by Laurent GUERBY on Mon Jun 11th, 2007 at 02:22:53 AM EST
treated as a separate party from 'UMP & allies'? They are nothing but.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Jun 11th, 2007 at 04:02:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's all formal :)
by Laurent GUERBY on Mon Jun 11th, 2007 at 06:49:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So we can clearly see how Bayrou gets punished for daring to leave the fold?
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Jun 11th, 2007 at 07:22:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What I miss online are the pocket descriptions of each seat you (used to?) get with the printed edition of le Monde. These would tell you that so and so who was running as 'div droit' for example was really a mainline Gaullist who personally detested the offical Gaullist so the transfer of votes in the second  round to the leading Gaullist was not assured as far as offical advice went, though most dissident rightists would probably do so except that the second placed Socialist candidate was a well-known local cycling hero and as Mayor of the main town was a great bringer-in of Pork though if he could be persuaded to stand down in favour of the third-placed Radical who had substantially passed the ballotage limit the radical might well stand a better chance and perhaps a deal might be made with the neighbouring seat where the radicals had just scraped in ... having the bare figures is much less fun. No doubt some Bloggers somewhere are filling in this gap...
by saugatojas on Mon Jun 11th, 2007 at 11:46:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Partly the problem is that there are very few such circumscriptions at this point. The UMP has instilled party discipline on the right, for the most part, and the low turnout means that there are very few triangular (and no quadrangular) run-offs (a candidate is required to gain 12.5% of the registered voters in the district to qualify, which means with 40% abstention, almost 20% of the votes cast).
by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Tue Jun 12th, 2007 at 01:39:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by Laurent GUERBY on Mon Jun 11th, 2007 at 01:55:11 PM EST


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