French 2007 legislative elections round 2

by Laurent GUERBY Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 02:05:11 PM EST

Current composition of the french national assembly is 362 UMP (right), 6 DVD (misc right), 142 PS (left), 29 UDF (center), 22 PCF (communist) and 3 Green (plus other misc or vacant seats).

35 millions voters are called to choose deputies for the 467 remaining seats after 45.5% of voters choosed the right against 39% for the left. 109 seats already went to the right with only 1 for the left.

933 candidates are competing. 2 left candidate are sure to be elected since they're alone after "desistements". Only one place has three candidate ("triangulaire").

First round diary and offical results
Two UMP (right) elected in polynesia.
Polls analysis: 197 seats uncertain and amongst them 85 very close after first round.
Turnout was low for first round at 60.42%.

Update [2007-6-17 14:5:11 by Jerome a Paris]:: First estimates suggest that the left will have 190-230 seats (vs 100-140 predicted) i.e. a lot more than expected (and more than they currently hold). Sarkozy has a majority to govern, but his aura of invincibility might be slightly breached.

Update [2007-6-17 15:30:14 by Laurent GUERBY]: Alain Juppé (government number two) has lost at Bordeaux 49.07%-50.93%. He just said he'll send his resignation letter from government tomorrow morning.

Update [2007-6-17 16:19:44 by Laurent GUERBY]: Latest CSA estimate 22h16: 314 UMP, 5 DVD, 2 MPF, 19 NC, 3 MoDem, 212 PS, 18 PCF, 4 Verts.
Breaking news Ségolène Royal announces she's now separated from François Hollande and that she will be candidate to PS 1st secretary if her project gets a majority.

Update [2007-6-18 2:2:52 by Laurent GUERBY]: Official Results:

French 2007 legislative elections round 2 | 117 comments (117 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Turnout 12:00 (4.00 / 2)

Turnout at 12:00 is 22.90%, in 2002 it was 20.79%.

http://fr.news.yahoo.com/17062007/5/legislatives-participation-de-22-90-12h.html

Of course Jerome won't be voting, as evil "air strike" Guillaume reminded him yesterday at the meetup :).

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 06:22:03 AM EST

Re: Turnout 12:00 (none / 0)

Is that because the UMP won the 16eme in the first round?

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 06:26:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Turnout 12:00 (none / 0)

Yep

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 06:34:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Turnout 17:00 (none / 1)

Turnout at 17:00 is 49.58%, slightly above 49.26% at the same hour for first round last sunday.

Past second round turnout at 1700:

2002: 46.83%
1997: 58.10%

http://fr.news.yahoo.com/17062007/290/participation-de-49-58-a-17h00-au-second-tour-des.html

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 11:21:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Legislative election turnout history (none / 1)

An interesting graph:

(last bars are for 2007 not 2002, an error in the graph).

http://fr.news.yahoo.com/17062007/290/photo/evolution-de-l-abstention-aux-legislatives.html

I didn't know the highest turnout for legislative was in 1986 the ony were it was fully proportional and in one round (88.5% turnout).

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 11:31:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Turnout 12:00 (none / 1)

Ha !

I would have retorted earlier except I slept most of the day since I didn't have to vote in my excellent 'hood !!! I spent the rest of the day cruisin' in my H2. As for that other thing, you commies are luckier than the Irish. After I made that call to certain friends, it seems that a pizzeria in Paris, Texas, got taken out ! Geography is a b...

by Guillaume on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 09:00:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: French 2007 legislative elections round 2 (none / 1)

Any comments on the debacle of Bayrou's MoDem?

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 06:27:53 AM EST

MoDem (4.00 / 2)

No surprise here given the election method.

Many people say that Bayrou is only targeting presidential in 2012 and do not care about legislative.

UMP (right) will never introduce proportional vote, only PS (left) has some debate about it. Bayrou refusing to collaborate with PS is one more data point for the above.

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 06:50:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MoDem (none / 0)

Did Bayrou win his seat in the first round, or is he running today as well?

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde

by NordicStorm (m<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 07:26:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Bayrou (none / 1)

No he didn't win but there won't be a triangulaire PS-MoDem-UMP since the UMP candidate decided not to run for second round so he's currently facing the PS candidate:

http://www.interieur.gouv.fr/sections/a_votre_service/resultats-elections/LG2007/064/circons02.html

For some fun about it "political murdering by sweetness" on Diner's room blog:

http://dinersroom.free.fr/index.php?2007/06/12/541-de-l-assassinat-politique-par-la-douceur

De l'assassinat politique par la douceur
C'est un assassinat subtil et doux, long comme un empoisonnement de cinq ans.
C'est artistique et délicat ; c'est italien.
Par la voix bonhomme de Jean-Claude Gaudin, l'UMP a engagé hier son candidat à se désister dans la circonscription guignée par François Bayrou.
- C'est un geste que l'UMP souhaite faire à l'égard de François Bayrou
Comme d'offrir un baba au rhum à un diabétique.
Dans la deuxième circonscription des Pyrénées-Atlantiques, le candidat du MoDem a obtenu 37,25 % des voix. Pour le Parti socialiste, Marie-Pierre Cabanne recueille 23,32 % des suffrages et Jean-Pierre Marine, de l'UMP, 25,92 %.
Les trois candidats sont en mesure de se maintenir au second tour, mais en ce cas, François Bayrou vaincrait. Seule une alliance entre l'UMP et la Parti socialiste conduirait à sa défaite.
[...]

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 07:39:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MoDem (none / 1)

He was largely ahead on the first round, with both the UMP and PS candidates also qualifying for the second round.

Then the UMP candidate was ordered by Sarkozy to withdraw from the second round.

Bayrou's election is very safe.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 07:40:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MoDem (none / 1)

Then the UMP candidate was ordered by Sarkozy to withdraw from the second round.

Why?

by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 07:46:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

He looks generous (4.00 / 2)

when it really costs him nothing and , in fact, he could not prevent a Bayrou victory. So he's trying to taint Bayrou's (local) victory and claim a piece of it.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 08:05:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: He looks generous (4.00 / 2)

I read some speculation that there could be a surprise PS win in a 2-way right/left runoff in that circumpscription . I didn't look into it but I presumed Sarkozy was making a "bold" move to rub Bayrou into the dirt. He'd definitely sacrifice a seat to humiliate a rival.

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 02:27:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: He looks generous (4.00 / 2)

Objectively, he's forcing Bayrou to accept UMP support.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 03:14:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Eolas on voting (none / 0)

http://maitre.eolas.free.fr/journal/index.php?2007/06/15/648-pourquoi-je-ne-voterai-pas-dimanche

[...]
Oui, me direz vous, mais et moi, alors ? Pourquoi proclamè-je dans le titre que je ne vais pas voter dimanche, et que je vais expliquer pourquoi.
Moi, c'est différent.
Mon député a été élu au premier tour. Je penserai à vous en taquinant le goujon dans le parc de mon château.

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 07:09:17 AM EST

Paris 1st zone (4.00 / 3)

Where I'm voting:

http://www.interieur.gouv.fr/sections/a_votre_service/resultats-elections/LG2007/075/circons01.html

Candidate official propganda (received friday by snail mail):

* Left (green-PS-PCF alliance on the green candidate):

* Right (UMP):

Together with bulletins:

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 08:12:49 AM EST

Pre-empting the result (4.00 / 5)

The election confirms the bold choice voters made in the presidential election to back reform. This is a country that ten years ago cheerfully elected the left on a promise of reducing the working week from 39 hours to 35 without loss of pay. Today, Mr Sarkozy's campaign mantra is the exact reverse: "work more to earn more". He was swept into power on a promise of "rupture" with the past and a determination to restore the work ethic.
The French seem very happy with their choice. Polls say that Mr Sarkozy is the most popular newly elected president since De Gaulle. In giving him a crushing parliamentary majority, voters are handing him an exceptionally strong mandate for a tax-cutting, welfare-tightening, business-friendly programme, part of which will be voted through in an extraordinary parliamentary session in July.

No points for guessing where this comes from

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 08:58:18 AM EST

Re: Pre-empting the result (4.00 / 2)

I was going to mention a contributor to ET, but I got that wrong... :)

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 03:38:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pre-empting the result (4.00 / 2)

We've been expecting a UMP victory where about 3/4th of parliament leans right, but now they're losing more seats to the Socialists. While legislation may still remain the same, in that, the same things will happen with a smaller right victory than an overwhelming one, this is certainly a relief that France hasn't completely forgotten the left exists. Can we still hope for a Sego victory in five years?

by pelcan on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 04:18:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pre-empting the result (none / 1)

The Economist will title clear victory but not a landslide (heard on France Info).

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 04:32:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Bingo (none / 1)

The Economist itself is actually (slightly) more restrained:

A win, not a landslide
Nicolas Sarkozy's party gets a decisive majority in France's parliament
(Reuters)
IT WAS not the overwhelming victory predicted by the polls. President Nicolas Sarkozy nonetheless won a decisive majority at the second round of France's parliamentary election on Sunday June 17th. His Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) took some 323 seats out of 577, according to early estimates.
This was a slight dip from the 359 seats the UMP held in the outgoing parliament, and well below the 400-odd seats predicted by polling agencies after first-round voting a week previously.
(...)
It is only the fourth time under France's Fifth Republic (after 1968, 1981 and 2002) that a single political party has by itself won an absolute majority. It is also the fourth time in two months that the French have handed a clear victory to Mr Sarkozy. This two-round parliamentary poll was a confirmation of the mandate he received at the presidential election in April and May.
The chief beneficiary of the swing away from the right between the first and second rounds was the Socialist Party. It took an estimated 206 seats, up from 149 in the outgoing parliament. The Socialists seem to have gained partly from a desire by centrist voters for a more effective opposition to Mr Sarkozy, after the collapse of Mr Bayrou's MoDem, which secured only an estimated four seats. They may also have been helped by fears about a steep rise in sales tax, which is under consideration by Mr Fillon as part of a switch away from heavy payroll taxes. (...)
Despite the undisguised delight on Socialist faces on election night, this poll was still a historic victory for Mr Sarkozy. The last time an incumbent political majority in France was re-elected was in 1978.
[How about 1995?]
(...)
Armed with a decisive majority, President Sarkozy and Mr Fillon will now prepare for an extraordinary parliamentary session in July, a time when deputies usually head off on holiday. (...) With a handsome parliamentary majority, Messrs Sarkozy and Fillon will now face only limited opposition in parliament. Opposition on the streets, however, could be another matter altogether.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 05:54:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Pundits or sycophants? (4.00 / 2)

Dominique Moïsi published a truly sickening article on Friday - fawning, ass licking and abject:

First revolution of the 21st century
Many are making a comparison between the right's triumph today and May 1981, when the left seized power with the election of François Mitterrand. That may be valid in terms of the scale of the victory but does not do justice to the real content and significance of the two events.
(...)
In 1981 the left's seizure of power was, initially at least, highly ideological. Animated by a spirit of revenge after being in opposition for the first 23 years of the fifth republic, the new elite in charge of France was anything but pragmatic. It mixed the old socialist elites of the fourth republic with the young énarques - graduates of the Ecole nationale d'administration - who had chosen the leftist camp the way investors buy when the market is low.

Yeah. No power-hungry entourage and no opportunists around Sarkozy. And, of course, no ideology.

The most fascinating in that sentence is how it suggests that the left had an "ideology", which the people that it brought to power did not believe in (so they were really pragmatists, then?); whereas Sarkozy jas no ideology but the people he's bringing in actually believe in what they'll do. So if they really believe it, it's not an ideology, right?

< head explodes >

Mitterrand was already in his late sixties when he came to power. For the pro-Mitterrand 1968 generation, everything was truly possible - even the most stupid economic decisions. The only real constraint of rationality came from the international context, dominated by the worsening cold war.

Hmm - Mitterrand was 61 when he was elected president. Just a small additional note that he was out of touch, 'irrational' and 'stupid', like anything from the left, of course.

France's pro-Sarkozy generation is above all pragmatic. It sees in the election of the new president France's last chance to come to terms with modernity. If "London is in Paris" - that is, if France adopts UK-style economic reforms - it will no longer be necessary to go to work in London to find energy and flexibility.

Sigh. What can one say to that?

In fact, more than May 1981, May 2007 in France evokes May 1997 in Britain, when Mr Blair was elected. The heavy defeat of the French Socialists is reminiscent of that of the British Conservatives. Mr Sarkozy's choice of new ministerial faces that demonstrate the diversity of the new France - including some who are female, north African and black - has echoes too of Mr Blair's Britain.

Yeah, because we never had female, norht African or black ministers before Sarkozy. Not Roger Bambuck. Not Kofi Yamgnane. Not Edith Cression. Not Azouz Begag. Not ....etc...

It is paradoxical to see in France such a radical inversion of traditional images, with the left in the role of the "party of fear" whose only programme is the need to balance Sarkozy, and the right incarnating the "party of hope".

Heh. Funny to read this on the same page of the FT:

Mr Sarkozy said many things to many people during the election campaign, but his principal pre-election profile was not his neoliberalism, which has been meagre and inconsistent, but his tough guy pose against Muslim immigrants. Few have forgotten his hurling the epithet "scum" (racaille) at suburban youths of North African origin who rioted after two boys were electrocuted while evading the police.
(...)
In other words, the key to his victory was not the promise of neoliberal reforms that the French generally detest, but a covert subversion of the cordon sanitaire around proto-fascist parties that for decades prevented French conservatives from outflanking the left by allying themselves with the far right. Mr Sarkozy had no need of an electoral alliance with the Front National. His stance on Islam and immigrants massively attracted FN voters and won him the presidency. What he will do in office is anyone's guess.

but no, the left if the 'party of fear'.

There are four crucial challenges he has to meet: reform of the education system to restore competitiveness and creativity; reform of labour and social laws to put France back to work; the successful integration of minorities; and whatever contribution he makes to the refashioning of an opposition necessary for democracy.

Oh. He will even rebuild the left. What a great, great, great man. We're so lucky to have him.

To return to the political and commercial analogies, the country cannot be treated as a company. There is no France Inc, but a "New Britain", with a very strong Latin touch, may be in the making in Mr Sarkozy's France.

Sigh again.

I understand this must be satisfactory to read for London-based editors of the FT, but do they really think that this is the message that everybody else in Europe wants to hear?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 09:16:22 AM EST

Re: Pundits or sycophants? (none / 1)

What the hell. I posted this as a diary

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 09:18:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pundits or sycophants? (none / 1)

Do they mention that he has already been seen drunk in public?

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 03:18:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Polls say the PS (left) could win 224 seats (none / 1)

http://www.letemps.ch/template/transmettre.asp?contenupage=nlreader&page=newsletterdisplay&i d=12&NLArtID=9787

Les socialistes français semblent limiter l'ampleur de la «vague bleue» UMP au second tour des législatives françaises de dimanche.
Dimanche 17 juin 2007 19:15
LeTemps.ch
Selon l'institut de sondages CSA, le Parti socialiste (PS) obtiendrait 224 des 577 sièges de l'Assemblée nationale à l'occasion du deuxième tour des élections législatives du 17 juin. S'il se confirmait, ce score serait supérieur aux pronotics avancés à l'issue du premier tour (entre 69-149 sièges).
Toujours selon nos toutes premières estimations, l'UMP obtiendrait 309 sièges, le MoDem de François Bayrou 2 sièges, le Parti communiste 12, les Verts 4, le Mouvement pour la France de Philippe de Villiers un siège et huit sièges reviendraient à des candidats «divers droite».
Selon d'autres sources, la droite obtiendrait entre 340 et 380 sièges, la gauche entre 190 et 230 sièges et 2 à 3 sièges iraient au MoDem.

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 01:47:37 PM EST

Re: Polls say the PS (left) could win 224 seats (4.00 / 3)

It sounds like the TVA sociale polemic made voters realize that Sarkozy's programme wouldn't mean a free lunch for everybody. Of course, the PS couldn't get the concept across until the last week of a 6 month long election season...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 01:58:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Polls say the PS (left) could win 224 seats (none / 1)

Agree and agree.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 03:40:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Borloo TVA sociale (none / 1)

Some of the right is openly accusing Borloo of a big communication mistake.

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 03:45:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Borloo TVA sociale (none / 0)

They managed to stay on message thus far and needed to keep this soothing mood, at least until Sunday (with the help of a compliant media).

Things were working so well and they were so triumphant and full of themselves, at the end they couldn't help it: someone eventually spilled the beans and the spell was broken. Folks started waking up and suddenly realized the place stinks to high heaven...

They would have gotten away with it if it were not for this meddling Borloo, and also the decision to raise the minimum wage by a bare 2%: this sure was a cold shower.

by Bernard (bernard) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 01:54:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Borloo TVA sociale (none / 0)

Could you detail this mess over the TVA? (Or give a link to an ET story on it I missed?)

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 03:56:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Borloo TVA sociale (4.00 / 2)

If you read french see here:

http://obouba.over-blog.com/article-10850237.html

Short story: government mandated Eric Besson (ex PS now UMP) to study a possible raise of VAT (up to +5%) with a corresponding decrease of social cotisations on income. It was presented as a way to fight delocalisations but depending on the details it will likely be a way to lower tax progressivity.

by Laurent GUERBY on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 04:12:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Borloo TVA sociale (4.00 / 2)

And Borloo talked about it in MSM last week sparking the debate.

by Laurent GUERBY on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 04:13:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Borloo TVA sociale (none / 1)

Ah, so TVA=VAT! I couldn't figure that out...

One more thing: what is "délocalisation"/delocalisation? Outsourcing?

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 05:44:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Borloo TVA sociale (none / 0)

More specifically, offshoring.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 05:51:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Borloo TVA sociale (none / 1)

Heheh. I had the same confusion. TVA to me means "Tennessee Valley Authority," which clearly wasn't right...

Acronyms don't often transfer well. Once when I was wearing a t-shirt with the Washington DC baseball team's "DC" logo on it, a Chilean friend wanted to know why I was endorsing the Christian Democrats....

by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 05:58:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Acronyms (none / 1)

To translate them here's a trick:

http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/TVA

Then click or move or your mouse on the "english" on the left column.

That's what I do (in reverse) for english acronyms I don't understand :)

by Laurent GUERBY on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 06:36:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Polls say the PS (left) could win 224 seats (none / 1)

It's hard to get a point across when your position is reported for 15 seconds on the 3 AM Farming news summary and with 3 lines on page 24 of the newspapers.

Compared to the lead-off story on prime time news and blaring headlines: Royale - Threat or Menance?

:-<

Welcome to our world.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 03:46:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Counting (none / 0)

I'm going to count votes tonight, see you in one or two hours.

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 01:54:39 PM EST

Re: French 2007 legislative elections round 2 (none / 1)

LeMonde reports left wins 5 seats in Dom-Tom, of which 2 big upsets (Guyana and ..Wallis-et-Futura, which I have to admit I have never even heard of.)

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 02:31:01 PM EST

Re: French 2007 legislative elections round 2 (4.00 / 2)

It would be nice if it were named Futura, but in fact it's Wallis and Futuna ;)

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 03:37:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: French 2007 legislative elections round 2 (none / 0)

Results coming up on Liberation website -- Bianco wins, Peillon loses, BAyrou wins easily, UDF wins at least 2 other seats ...

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 02:41:11 PM EST

Re: French 2007 legislative elections round 2 (none / 1)

Sarkozy Wins Clear Parliamentary Majority in French Vote | Europe | Deutsche Welle | 17.06.2007

President Nicolas Sarkozy's right-wing party won a clear majority to carry through his reform program in France's legislative election Sunday but failed to get a widely predicted landslide.
The Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) secured 319-329 seats in the 577-member National Assembly, 30-40 seats fewer than the old parliament, according to projections issued after polls closed in the decisive second round.

Sarkozy's party had been expected to score a "blue wave" landslide after his stunning presidential election win in May. But amid a low turnout, the Socialist Party made a surprise comeback, increasing from 149 to 202-210 seats, according to the projections.

by Fran on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 02:51:55 PM EST

Re: French 2007 legislative elections round 2 (none / 1)

Juppe beaten, will resign as ministre d'etat.

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 03:10:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Juppe (none / 0)

It's not official yet?

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 03:13:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Juppe (none / 1)

ppda just said it. Anything he says is official, right?

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 03:16:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

klarsfeld beaten (none / 1)

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 03:20:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: klarsfeld beaten (none / 0)

It's official he has lost too.

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 03:42:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: klarsfeld beaten (none / 1)

Whoa, Le Figaro should have contained its glee in yesterday's pre-election coverage (I read that on the Eurostar).

Side note: the Eurostar offered to its First Class passengers the Financial Times, the Daily Telegraph and Le Figaro. It's clear what demographic they think they're serving.

[Disclaimer: for some incomprehensible reason the "leisure Select" ticket at the time I took it was the cheapest way to get back to London that day]

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 04:34:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: klarsfeld beaten (4.00 / 2)

I did the Toulouse-Paris return trip in the TGV in 1st Class for the same reason.

The only stuff I could see people reading around me was Libé (like me), the Nouvel Obs, or some serious-looking books. Not freebies, though - there were no hand-outs.

I got the feeling the kind of people who travel by TGV are more likely to lean left (even when the curve is to the right).

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 04:42:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: klarsfeld beaten (none / 1)

From personal observations, on the Paris-Grenoble line a few years ago ; when the train is empty, and 2nd class remains cheaper than 1st (weekdays evening), the social divide is well marked, and the 1st class reads Le Figaro, whereas when the train is almost full, as on a weekend, the 2nd class overflows into the 1st, and you find Libé readers there...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 05:48:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Juppe (none / 0)

Just like Fidel Castro interview :).

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 03:22:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Juppe (none / 0)

It's official Juppe has lost.

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 03:27:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Juppe (none / 0)

actual vote, 51.25%-48.75%, Juppe loses. TF1

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 03:29:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Juppe (none / 0)

He's making his concession speech and announcing his resignation.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 03:37:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Juppe (none / 1)

Oh my gawd I am weeping.

Glad Arno Klarsfeld lost too.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 03:47:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Juppe (none / 1)

Klarsfeld had a safe right seat (never been held by the left since 1958) in the 12th arondissement of Paris, he only scored 44%.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 03:54:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Klarsfeld (4.00 / 2)

One of the most unsettling aspect for me by the victory of Sarkozy was the feeling of seeing redux of the Berlusconi and Bush victory, at least in the media game and the reaction of the electorate, left and right.

But the defeat of the hyped TV-VIP, Klarsfeld and the TF-Lawyer opposed to DSK is a comforting break with the election in Italy of countless hot Mediaset assets.

I wonder if it is due to the different elections rules (direct against list), or if the French are more resistant to the fascination of TV democracy.
Or if Frenche and Italian are the same, and Berlusconi was simply wrong and his mediatisation was a negative masked by the dynamic of his party.

La répartie est dans l'escalier. Elle revient de suite.

by lacordaire on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 07:37:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Klarsfeld (none / 0)

It is late,..
Edits:
in the media game and the reaction of the electorate TO IT, left and right.

... the hyped TV-VIPs, Klarsfeld and the TF1-Lawyer

La répartie est dans l'escalier. Elle revient de suite.

by lacordaire on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 08:18:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Juppe (none / 0)

Who beat him?

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 03:47:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Juppe (none / 1)

Michèle Delaunay (PS).

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 03:50:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: French 2007 legislative elections round 2 (none / 0)

One small good news in a long series of bad news...

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 03:46:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Done counting (4.00 / 3)

In my polling station (50 minutes).

One good news: Renaud Donnedieu de Vabres of infamous DADVSI fame lost his reelection.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renaud_Donnedieu_de_Vabres

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DADVSI

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 03:12:12 PM EST

Re: Done counting (none / 0)

So, did the counting sound good for Martine ?

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 03:15:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Done counting (4.00 / 2)

Yes, all our tables gave her the majority (but Segolene Royal was strong).

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 03:21:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Done counting (none / 0)

Billard, ? Sorry, I'm coming to the conversation late.

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 03:27:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Done counting (none / 1)

See the pics above :).

Martine Billard is a green party candidate in my circonscription (allied with PS and PCF).

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 03:28:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Martine Billard reelected (none / 1)

It's now official.

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 04:23:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Reading skills (4.00 / 3)

Two UMP (right) elected in polynesia.

I read

Two UMP (rigged) elected in polynesia.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 03:16:24 PM EST

Ariège stays left (none / 1)

- Ariège Foix 1ère circ.
Frédérique Massat (PS) 65.91% Elue
Jacqueline Rougé (UMP) 34.09%

- Ariège Pamiers-Saint-Girons 2ème circ.
Henri Nayrou (PS) 61.05% Réélu
Philippe Calléja (UMP) 38.95%

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 03:55:36 PM EST

Re: Ariège stays left (none / 0)

When was the last right wing MP in Ariège ?

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 03:57:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ariège stays left (none / 1)

I honestly don't know, may be none?

Always 2 PS seats since 1962 at least:

http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_des_d%C3%A9put%C3%A9s_de_l%27Ari%C3%A8ge

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 04:01:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ariège stays left (none / 0)

I know a fair number of old people here, but I never heard tell of a right-wing victory. Not even in Once upon a time stories...

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 04:04:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ariège stays left (none / 1)

Same in my recollection.

http://www.chronologievictor-hugo.com/qui/corpquisontilsa_1.htm

Anglade, Clément Etremore
1800-1881. Avocat. Député de l'Ariège sous Louis-Philippe. Représentant de l'Ariège à la Constituante et à la Législative. Siège à gauche. Tente de résister au coup d'Etat. Se retire de la politique sous l'Empire. Après le 4 septembre, sera préfet de l'Ariège ; député du même département en 1877. Sénateur en 1880.
[...]
Arnaud de l'Ariège, Frédéric
1819-1878. Représentant à la Constituante en 1848 puis à la Législative en 1849. Démocrate chrétien, siège à la Montagne, opposé à la présidence de Louis-Napoléon. eprésentant de l'Ariège en 1871. Sénateur de 1876 à sa mort en 1878.

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 06:10:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Non voters (none / 1)

There was a right vs right battle in their circonscription so they went eating out.

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 04:06:52 PM EST

Segolene Royal and Francois Hollande (none / 1)

http://www.liberation.fr/actualite/politiques/legislative/261657.FR.php

Ségolène Royal annonce qu'elle et son compagnon François Hollande se sont séparés, à une date qu'elle a refusé de préciser

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 04:27:28 PM EST

Re: Segolene Royal and Francois Hollande (none / 1)

From versac

http://vanb.typepad.com/versac/2007/06/soire_lectorale.html

Soirée électorale / la rupture
Moment unique de télévision, ce soir, sur France 2. On annonce en plateau que la rupture du couple Hollande/Royal serait officialisée dans un livre qui parait cette semaine. Appel en direct à Solférino pour savoir quelles sont les réactions.
Le correspondant est un peu interdit, et il se livre tout simplement, sur le mode "nous, journalistes, on le savait tous, mais bon, ça devait sortir que mercreid, Elise, dites-donc".
Incroyable. A graver dans les mémoires de la transparence médiatique.

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 04:36:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: French 2007 legislative elections round 2 (none / 0)

So, did the polls underestimate the left vote because people are embarrassed to admit they're going to vote for the losers of the Presidentials, or what?

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 04:35:57 PM EST

Polls (none / 1)

They announced 197 seats uncertain and amongst them 85 very close after first round, low turnout so a slight come back of the left voters has pretty big effects.

Then of course the end of weeks news of "minimal" minimum wage raise in july, TVA sociale that will eat on low incomes did not help.

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 04:38:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: French 2007 legislative elections round 2 (none / 0)

Well, there were few polls done in individual circumscriptions, so this result is not inconsistent with pre-election polling.

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 05:14:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Women (none / 1)

At least 105 women (18.20%) in the new national assembly vs 76 women (13.17%) in the old.

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 05:43:59 PM EST

Re: Women (none / 0)

How do the different parties fare in that measure?

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 06:08:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Women (none / 0)

I don't know yet.

(could you reenable the moon comment, I now have resized the targeted image to 640x350, thanks).

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 06:12:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Women (none / 1)

According to LIbe a couple hours ago,
43 women UMP
43 Women PS

La répartie est dans l'escalier. Elle revient de suite.

by lacordaire on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 07:24:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Women (none / 1)

Vive la parité!

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 07:31:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Women (none / 1)

Last info:
Left: 57 (Communist + ecologist have the most women percentually wise, and add quite a lot to the PS)
Right : 45

La répartie est dans l'escalier. Elle revient de suite.

by lacordaire on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 08:14:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Women (none / 1)

Final tally:

107 women (vs 76 previously)
61 from the left (out of 228 - 27%)
49 PS (out of 190 - 26%)
46 on the right(45 UMP)(out of 349 - 13%)

Better, but not great, and it shows that the ability to evade the parity law (which imposes 40% of candidates at least for each sex but can be circumvented by fines) is still high.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 05:39:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: French 2007 legislative elections round 2 (4.00 / 3)

Alain Carignon, former corrupt mayor of Grenoble, got trounced with 36% of the vote in a circonscription that used to vote right-wing... That's nice.

And in Paris, the leftwing deputies all got large majorities ; the only survivor in an endangered circonscription is Tiberi with 52% of the vote, which means the 5th arrondissement could go left in the communal elections.

Even the greens were able to get a 4th MP. (They look quite dumb now to have refused an alliance with the PS ; they could probably have gained a few seats.)

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 05:57:42 PM EST

Re: French 2007 legislative elections round 2 (4.00 / 2)

Carignon managed to take over the local UMP (via ballot stuffing, some say) and get himself nominated as the official UMP candidate in that traditionally right-wing district.

Other local UMP, including incumbent Richard Cazenave, were livid and even went as far as publicly calling for him to be defeated, implicitly endorsing challenger Genevieve Fioriso (PS).

Grenoblois are reputed for their irascibility and they apparently have long memories: when I arrived in Grenoble more than 10 years ago, "Mayor jailed!" was the main headline.

by Bernard (bernard) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 01:42:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: French 2007 legislative elections round 2 (none / 1)

I've looked at some of the suburb in the 1st district. It contains the posher parts of the suburbs (I Grenoble, unlike most cities, the wealthy live in the NorthEast ; because of the mountains it is where the sun sets latest)

Some of the towns like Meylan or Corenc, socilogical equivalent to the posh suburbs of the Hauts-De-Seine in Paris, used to go 65-35 to the right wing, yet this time voted 53-47 for the left wing. That's a 20 points turnaround.

The district was really built so that it would be possible to have a right wing deputy in left wing Grenoble, meshing a leftwing quarter of Grenoble with the most right wing parts of the suburbs.

I didn't know about Carignon's ballot stuffing rumors. Wouldn't amaze me.

About irascible Grenoblois, the 2004 cantonale was a fun election : the mairie was starting to build a football stadium in boboland, reducing green areas and teargassing protesters in the meantime. The result was a surprise election of a Green council member, not of a rightwing one...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 05:18:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: French 2007 legislative elections round 2 (4.00 / 2)

A very important thing, to check tomorrow : the right doesn't have the 3/5th majority it enjoyed, and thus can't change the constitution at will. (The two previous right wing government could and did change the constitution regularly). Which might mean the left can ask for a referendum on a new EU treaty, I think.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 06:23:45 PM EST

Constitution change (none / 1)

347 seats are needed for 3/5 and 577 - 212 PS, 18 PCF, 4 green is 343 < 347 so it's indeed significant (not even counting MoDem).

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 06:26:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Constitution change (none / 0)

The 5 MoDem deputies will certainly resist Sarkozian and Fillonian attempts to manipulate the Constitution -- as will some of the 9 or so DIV-D. Though I don't believe they hold a 3/5 majority in the Senate anyway (pls correct me if I'm wrong).

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 06:46:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Constitution change (none / 0)

See my comment here

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 09:20:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Votes (none / 1)

A CSA poll says that more than 50% of votes went to the left on second round.

At Paris, one right candidate was elected a bit close to 50% (Tiberi 52.66%, former mayor of Paris) so these may go to the left at municipal election next year.

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 06:24:12 PM EST

Re: Votes (none / 1)

Of course, with 109 right wing MPs elected in the first round, the more strongly right wing districts didn't vote, so having over 50% left wing votes in the second round isn't that surprising.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 06:29:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Votes (none / 0)

It's very far from the polls for second round, that's why it's an interesting data point.

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 06:35:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Votes (none / 0)

This result makes it seem the French opinion has started waking up, and that soon the état de grâce will be over. This could mean a very interesting autumn.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 06:38:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Haute-Garonne (none / 1)

8/8 for PS, including inner Toulouse (whose mayor is currently right wing).

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 06:41:43 PM EST

Re: Haute-Garonne (none / 1)

In addition to the Grand Chelem in Toulouse, it seems the left won a majority of votes in every other major city except Marseille, and possibly Lyon. The PS seems to stand a good chance to begin its "refondation" next year in the muncipales.

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 06:48:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Haute-Garonne (none / 1)

It looks like the Left has half the deputies in Lyon, and melanchthon was saying that Perben was too unpopular to win the election. OTOH, the left is still a minority in Paris, when counting the popular vote.

Finally, both in Lyon and Paris, the Modem can have a strange effect on the municipals. Cavada was saying on TV that the party will have to decide which side it is on...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 07:08:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

felicitations a mgb et au pcf. (none / 0)

mieux que prevu...

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 07:12:41 PM EST

Re: felicitations a mgb et au pcf. (4.00 / 3)

On topic...

The "dumb pcf" anecdote, or how the PCF would have got his 20-deputies group, but couldn't.

In the south of Grenoble there is this "red suburb" : two large, worker towns (Echirolles and Saint Martin d'Hères) which have had PCF mayors for a few decades, that make up the 2nd circonscription of Isère with a few other municipalities that are more bourgeois, and thus have PS mayors.

The 2nd has also had PCF MPs for a very long time (it was set up this way by Pasqua, gerrymandering the left vote in a single district so that another district, the 5th, could get a right wing MP from time to time). The old PCF MP reaches retirement age in 2007. The PCF has two ideal candidates for the district : the mayor of Echirolles, Renzo Sulli(There's been a lot of Italian immigration in Grenoble. We've got 40 pizzeria all lined up side by side on the Quai Saint Laurent (a marvel of competition, the sight is really impressive and unbelievable. They are probably used for money laundering) and regular maffia shootings), and the mayor of Saint Martin d'Hères, and natural heir to Gilbert Biessy, René Proby.

Well, Proby got the PCF nomination, and Sulli decides he should be candidate too. Yep, that's one of the two PCF-dissident candidates in France.

The result of the first round is, Sulli gets 13.6%, Proby gets 10.6%, and the PS candidate, Issindoux, gets 22,6% : a single PCF candidate would have gotten into the 2nd round, and would be MP by now.

Oh, and BTW, Issindoux is the mayor of one of those more bourgeois, PS suburbs towns, Gières (my hometown). He used to be top administrator at one of Grenoble's universities (which actually are for the most part located in Saint Martin d'Hères and Gières).

5 years ago he was leading a movement to expel the tzigans from the campus. (They are thiefs ! they degrade public toilets ! They use up parking space ! They have nothing to do on the campus !). Of course, the Grenoble Metro had failed to provide the legally mandated space for nomad tzigans. But the worse is that he organized a demonstration against those tzigans, in april 2002. Smack in the middle of the presidential campaign that saw Le Pen in the second round.

I'm not much of a fan of Issindoux. As a mayor, he is secretive, cares little for the population (which won't elect a right wing mayor, so he has the position for life), but is better at navigating his way through the Grenoble political class, and getting a good position in the communauté de communes.

So, instead of a PCF group, the district is getting another PS apparachick, semi-corrupt and very far from démocratie participative. Too bad.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2007 at 08:03:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: felicitations a mgb et au pcf. (none / 0)

I want to uprate, really i do.

i'm going to.

but all the same, these ps have to go, they are politically worthless.

sego figured it out...

look at him.

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 12:36:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: felicitations a mgb et au pcf. (none / 0)

btw if we are of the "lyrical" left by definition be are demob...

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 12:42:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: French 2007 legislative elections round 2 (none / 0)

we are dubm .... damn this keyboard.

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 12:43:40 AM EST

Re: French 2007 legislative elections round 2 (4.00 / 2)

Well, certainly went better than predicted. Still, awfully blue...

And Juppé wasn't elected! Ha! Ha! Ha!

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde

by NordicStorm (m<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 05:12:09 AM EST

Contrasting perspectives (none / 1)

Le Monde website

FT paper version of the European edition (the vote is at the bottom of the first column in the UK edition)

And this in the WSJ:

Sarkozy's Bittersweet Win French Voters Hand UMP Muted Victory As Discord Emerges
PARIS -- A victory by French President Nicolas Sarkozy's party in parliamentary elections yesterday was overshadowed by signs of discord within his cabinet and the resignation of the government's second in command.
Mr. Sarkozy will have a supportive assembly for the next five years to back his goals to revive the French economy and reposition France as a central player in European affairs.
But the president's center-right UMP party won far less than the landslide majority pollsters had predicted, marking his first political setback since being elected last month. And, Alain Juppé a former prime minister and a senior minister in Mr. Sarkozy's cabinet, said he will step down as environment minister after he was defeated in the legislative vote.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 06:51:18 AM EST

Re: French 2007 legislative elections round 2 (none / 0)

Question about Juppé. Isn't Sarko actually happy about that? Wasn't Juppé the man pushed by Chirac?

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 07:58:41 AM EST

Re: French 2007 legislative elections round 2 (none / 1)

Sarko considers Chirac a done deal, and doesn't mind using former Chirac supporters. Indeed his government has more former Chirac supporters that rallied to Sarko in time, and fewer classical Sarko supporters who have been supporting him since 2002.

Because of Juppé's condemnation in court, he wasn't a rival for Sarkozy anymore.

OTOH, Fillon the PM might be happy to be rid of a man as important as he is.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 08:14:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: French 2007 legislative elections round 2 (none / 0)

his government has more former Chirac supporters that rallied to Sarko in time, and fewer classical Sarko supporters who have been supporting him since 2002.

He could have done that also to follow the more to keep friends close, enemies closer...

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 08:35:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Discrepancy? (4.00 / 2)

Trying to make sense of the alphabet soup of parties with small tallies of seats...

Le Monde gives Bayrou's supporters four seats:

93 Seine St-Denise 5th
35 Ile-et-Vilain 6th
64 Pyrenees Atlantiques 7th
64 Pyrenees Atlantiques 4th

However the official results only tally Bayrou with three.

What gives? And are there other variations across different scorecards?

by saugatojas on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 09:11:01 AM EST

Re: Discrepancy? (none / 1)

Jean-Christophe Lagarde, the 93 deputy, has been very reluctant to see the UDF transformed into the Modem, and had an agreement with the local UMP, so he didn't have to face an UMP candidate ; however he hasn't joined the "new center". No one knows for sure what he is.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 09:24:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Discrepancy? (4.00 / 2)

A prick?

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 09:49:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Discrepancy? (none / 0)

THere's also one DOM-TOM deputy, I believe, from Mayotte, who won an MD ticket -- taking a seat away from the UMP! I don't know if he or she has announced where he or she will sit in the Assembly.

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 11:51:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

way down in 71 (none / 0)

Couple of glances at the part of France that I hold in my soul...

UMP won 71 Saone-et-Loire 1st on the secound round with 55% having taken 47% on the first round. I am glad though to see 'my own little corner' in Bourgvilain Commune voted the other way in both rounds. In fact the UMP vote in Bourgvilain stayed almost the same while the PS candidate seems to have pulled in votes from the Beyrou candidate as well as greens and diverse lefts. Does it look as if the FN vote stayed at home?

Meanwhile up in 71 Saone-et-Loire 4th (that includes the commune of Taize for those of you who know your interfaith history) the UMP led by 1022 votes on the first round but ended up losing to the PS candidate by 994 on the second round. An exciting night. This could not have happened without pulling in some non-socialist votes. I suspect that this area will bear some detailed analysis on where the centre -leftish vote might go or re-establish itself as the Sarko experiment evolves.

by saugatojas on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 10:52:16 AM EST

The diversities??? (none / 0)

There is usually some part of France where the results are not explicable without knowing who is knifing who in the back, making off with other candidates spouses, or failing to keep up with payoffs. Or even being outstanding local represenatives who cannot be touched.

So what is the story in:

81 Tarn 3rd where both second round candidates are listed as 'diverse', no UMP in the first round, and an unambiguous national party left representation in round 2 denied because the Left Radical and 'diverse left' candidates split their possible support almost evenly in the first round, thus eliminating each other? Which way will Phillpe Foillot jump in the Assembly?

Up in 85 Vendee are we still seeing the memory of the Chouaines in the results of the 4th and 5th? (Both wins for the MPF who do they bed down with?)

Exactly what is the point of party difference that saw a dissident Communist candidate top the first round poll in 80 Somme 1st and then go on to victory?

What was the cocktail in 67 bas-Rhin 1st that saw it the only non-UDF seat in that department (by 527 votes) , after a first round featuring a dead heat between the two ballotage candidates, and a strong dissident-UMP candidate eliminated?

Down in old Pied-Noir country, 13 Bouches-du-Rhone 15th sees a dissident UMP dead-heat the official UMP in the first round, then take the seat in the second, the runner-up scoring about the same in each round. Something entertaining here? What to expect of victorious Bernard Reynes?

And while we are about it, quite a fight in the second round in 13 B-d-R 3rd, victory for the UMP by 248 votes after leading by 3000 in the first round)
Another squeaker 13 B-d-R 8th, UMP win by 94 votes after leading by 3000 in the first.

No doubt many others I have missed...

by saugatojas on Mon Jun 18th, 2007 at 11:38:42 AM EST

French 2007 legislative elections round 2 | 117 comments (117 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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French 2007 legislative elections round 2

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