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Bolivar versus Washington

by maracatu Wed Jul 18th, 2007 at 07:01:58 AM EST

What is really behind the growing tensions between the governments of the United States and Venezuela?  From what I have read in the mainstream press, this may be turning out to be another classic example of missing the forrest for the trees.  In this diary, I would like to highlight several articles that should aid in sketching out that forrest.  (By the way, I realize the title may be a "tad" misleading, but that was just to get your attention!)

From the diaries - whataboutbob


While the mainstream press has recently focused on the protests following the non-renewal of the licence of a local TV station, that might be characterized as a distraction from the real issue.  You can actually find some good indications of what the real issue is behind the US-Venezuela discord, in some corners of the mainstream media:

Taken together, economists and others who track the country's affairs say, the investments signify an effort by Venezuela to curb the reach of the U.S. government, whose influence has waned in Latin America. For Chávez, the goal is nothing less than to kill the so-called Washington consensus, the economic prescriptions championed by the International Monetary Fund and the U.S. Treasury, which press governments to limit spending, raise interest rates and open their economies to foreign trade and investment.

Backing such economic principles as privatization and trade liberalization, the consensus rooted out bloated bureaucracies and helped tame hyper-inflation. Yet even those countries that have run their economies along Washington consensus lines have generally seen disappointing rates of economic growth and deepening poverty. The electoral success of such leftist leaders as Chávez, Ortega, Bolivia's Evo Morales and Ecuador's Rafael Correa is in part the result of the failure of previous policies to generate growth and raise incomes, economists say.

A couple of years ago, Julia Sweig, the Council on Foreign Relation's top Latin American expert minimized the "threat" (I prefer the term "challenge") of Chavez to the US:

Experts say that while Chavez is an annoyance, he is not as serious a threat as critics claim. Most of Washington's retorts to Chavez's insults are part of what Sweig calls an ongoing "rhetorical tit for tat" between Caracas and the White House.

That was before Evo Morales and Daniel Ortega were elected Presidents of Bolivia and Nicaragua, respectively.  In more recent times, Sweig's tone has noticeably changed:

What is the United States to do?

A good first step would be immigration reform. Roughly fifty million Latin Americans reside in the United States, forty million of which are legal residents. Mr. Bush, to his credit, has taken a rather pragmatic approach to this issue. He favors a guest worker program and, most importantly, a path to legalization for the ten million or so immigrants who reside in the UnitedState illegally. Unfortunately, many in Congress disagree. As such, getting a comprehensive immigration reform bill through Congress is unlikely, even with the Democrats now controlling both houses.

That's a pity, too, as there is little else the United States can realistically do to placate critics like Mr. Chávez as long as he's talking about investing $2.5 billion in Nicaragua to build an oil refinery. U.S. foreign aid to the entire region totals a mere $1.6 billion, most of which is earmarked for fighting drugs in Colombia. The next best way to contain the growing influence of Mr. Chávez, however, would be to empower moderates throughout the region, such as Mexican President Felipe Calderón. Immigration reform would go a long way toward achieving this end.

But it's not nearly enough. At some point, the United States must tackle the core problem of the region: Latin America's persistent poverty. Mr. Chávez, for his part, has been addressing the issues surrounding this simple fact for six years now.  Meanwhile, the Bush Administration continues to pursue market reforms, privatization, and free trade agreements, without realizing that Latin Americans are increasingly blaming all three for their plight. A shift in strategy is desperately needed to reassure the region that this is not the case.

Well, given that immigration reform has since failed, I would expect the Bush administration to ramp up the "cold war" card.  As a colleague here at my university wrote in a local daily (my translation - any errors are mine, Emilio!):

The debate on the Free Trade Area of the Americas (ALCA) and the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA) has acquired an ideological tone that has obscured the economic logic that underlies it. The debate about these alternative models of insertion into the new economic world order has morphed into a re-edition of the ideological clash of the cold war, with added shades derived from the emerging discourses on terrorism, neoliberalism, globalization y and socialism from the 21st century.

I think my colleague has hit the nail on the head.  He asks what is behind these two competing projects, (the ALCA and the ALBA)?:

The simple answer is that in political economy, there aren't good and bad projects; only projects that benefit some groups and affect others. Hence, the support for one or another alternative depends on who or whom will be the winners and who will be the losers in the ALCA and the ALBA. Both treaty proposals articulate alternate ways of inserting oneself into the new golbal economy.

The ALCA promotes free trade between nations and the free movement of private capital, while the ALBA promotes regulated and subsidized commerce as well as the strict regulation of transnational corporations. It is a new formulation of the old debates between free trade and protectionism; between "laissez fair" and statism.  These problems arise in the debate between the classic and neoclassic economic doctrines, today manifested as neoliberalism and structuralism.

That is as far as I'll go into what is an academic discussion.  For those interested in delving into that can of worms, I welcome you to cross the Atlantic and take my course next semester!

Display:
At some point, the United States must tackle the core problem of the region: Latin America's persistent poverty. Mr. Chávez, for his part, has been addressing the issues surrounding this simple fact for six years now.

Hmm, why should the US have to tackle Latin America's persistent poverty? How about the US just lets the Latin Americans tackle the problem by themselves and tries not to be a hindrance? At least Chavez is a Latin American.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 01:28:33 PM EST
Right you are.  But given that we share the same hemisphere, it might be a good gesture of neighborliness to offer help (on our terms).  By the way, (if you read Spanish), my colleague's article is a "must read".  

Oh, darn, I'll just put it here:

El programa principal del ALBA para el Caribe es Petro Caribe. Este programa creó una corporación regional para la venta y distribución de petróleo en condiciones preferentes mediante un tratado firmado en 2005 por 14 naciones caribeñas. El acuerdo estabilizó los precios alrededor de $30 por barril y los aumentos a partir de ese nivel (hoy ronda $60) se financian al uno por ciento por veinte años.

Petro Caribe ha ayudado a las pequeñas economías de la región a sobrevivir el choque petrolero actual ahorrándoles millones de dólares en divisas y evitando la necesidad de hacer ajustes drásticos endeudándose con altas tasas de interés. Asimismo, países como Dominica y San Vicente han visto amenazadas sus exportaciones bananeras debido a la intervención de Estados Unidos en la OMC para acabar con los subsidios europeos a esta cosecha. El Gobierno de Antigua y Barbuda tuvo, además, que litigar contra Estados Unidos en la OMC para evitar ser sancionado por permitir apuestas por internet desde ese país.

El ALBA propone trato preferencial al comercio con las economías menos desarrolladas, la transferencia de tecnologías, financiamiento en forma de subsidios, becas, donaciones, para promover la convergencia estructural y la reducción de las asimetrías económicas. Se habla de promover el desarrollo a partir de "ventajas cooperativas" en lugar de "ventajas competitivas", y promueve proyectos y programas macroeconómicos típicos del estructuralismo económico desarrollista (e.g., el gasoducto suramericano).

El ALBA no condiciona sus programas a reciprocidad política ni económica, y tampoco requiere cambios estructurales en el gobierno ni en la economía. No hay que ser parte del "núcleo duro" (socialista) para participar en los programas del ALBA. Si se quita la retórica ideológica del debate entre el ALCA y el ALBA, se descubre una nueva versión de la vieja confrontación entre librecambismo y estructuralismo. Este es el verdadero dilema que confronta el hemisferio americano.



"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne
by maracatu on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 01:49:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
LOL

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 01:51:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So you aren't Migeru from Moldova?

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne
by maracatu on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 02:03:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He's one of the Hampshire Migeru's don't you know...

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson
by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 04:14:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You do live in London and have an American email address.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 04:34:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
that can figure me out! ;^D

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne
by maracatu on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 05:14:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Pernambucano?
by Torres on Wed Jul 18th, 2007 at 07:21:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, but you might get some hints from my regular blog.  Obviously I was born in one place, but my roots are diverse.

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne
by maracatu on Wed Jul 18th, 2007 at 11:33:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, and I also regularly post bilingual material.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 06:36:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
US interventionism in Latin America has been consistently framed as "help - on our term" since the Spanish-American war. I am not trying to start a pissing match here, european policies has historically been even worse, I'm just saying that it's understandable that the segments of Latin American societies who hasn't directly benefited from American patronage are rather sceptical about US aid.
by Trond Ove on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 02:47:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
By "our terms" I meant Latin American terms.  (I am from the South, not the North!)

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne
by maracatu on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 03:01:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah sorry.
by Trond Ove on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 04:31:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The ALCA promotes free trade between nations and the free movement of private capital, while the ALBA promotes regulated and subsidized commerce as well as the strict regulation of transnational corporations. It is a new formulation of the old debates between free trade and protectionism; between "laissez fair" and statism.  These problems arise in the debate between the classic and neoclassic economic doctrines, today manifested as neoliberalism and structuralism.

That is as far as I'll go into what is an academic discussion.

I protest, that is not an academic discussion. That (free movement of private capital) is the key economic issue behind the debates on globalisation, and it's all but academic.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 01:31:23 PM EST
What I meant, dear sir, is that the discussion into economic doctrines (Ricardian versus neostructuralists) could get a bit thick for what is a diary of this nature.  Does that gel with you?

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne
by maracatu on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 01:53:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We can do thick and academic.

But I find the identification of socialist policies (let's call them by their true name) with protectionism bizarre.

The so-called free trade economies are more than capable of putting up tariff barriers if they feel it's in their interests. It's as much a capitalist phenomenon as a socialist one.

The core of the issue is whether wealth is concentrated among the very rich or distributed among everyone else. Again, this has nothing to do with protectionism.

It worries me that an academic would believe that it does, because it suggests that his framing is de facto economic and sealed against any other kind of social metric.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 02:06:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What is socialism?  Is there one all-encompassing definition for socialism?  Is it a mode of production?  Is it a political party?  If the latter is the case, can socialism then exist within a capitalist multiparty context?  Can you pinpoint a definition for me?  Or perhaps more pertinent is how many countries fit the (or a given) description of "socialist".  Case in point - Not all countries that belong to the Socialist International are "socialist", according to a given definition.

Also could you be a bit more specific in what you are referring to.  If you are referring to my colleague's article, wherein he states: No hay que ser parte del "núcleo duro" (socialista) para participar en los programas del ALBA, I think he is referring to the nucleus being Cuba and Venezuela.  We can also discuss if either of them qualify as "socialist".

I guess in your eyes, I have committed the sin of being an economist.  Nevertheless I am perhaps too flexible in my use of hte terminology (which often doesn't jibe well with academics).

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne

by maracatu on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 02:27:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You can quibble over terms and dictionary definitions, but the roots of socialism - and communism for that matter - are simple enough. I made it easy by putting them in the next sentence.

Is Chavez a socialist? He has nationalised key industries and redistributed wealth for public benefit, so I'd say yes. He may, or may not be, a dictator. Being a dictator is orthogonal to the socialism/capitalism axis and doesn't deal with that particular question in any direct or useful way.

As for the sin of being economist - the only sin in being an economist is assuming that it's the only useful way to understand how the world works.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 04:17:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'll buy your last sentence.

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne
by maracatu on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 04:33:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'll take PayPal. :)
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 08:16:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What is socialism?  Is there one all-encompassing definition for socialism?  Is it a mode of production?  Is it a political party?  If the latter is the case, can socialism then exist within a capitalist multi party context?

As many understand socialism it is first and foremost a political ideology that is deeply rooted in economical theory.  In general that is not any different from other political ideologies.  

That said socialism is in essence the equal distribution of wealth in society and that has to be done by taking control over the means of production, that is advocating a specific economic system although in different degrees (some people advocate taking absolute control over the means of production others advocate just taking partial, even minimal, control over the means of production: Communism/Marxism vs. Social Democracy).

There are no countries that are members of the Socialist International, only political parties.    

And yes, I believe it is possible to have a socialist party advocating and executing socialist policies within a pluralistic political system that have a mixed or capitalist economical system.  You just have to be able and willing to differentiate between a political system and the economic system even if the two systems are interdependent.  
 

Bitsofnews.com Giving you the latest bits.

by Gjermund E Jansen (gjans1@hotmail.com) on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 04:30:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think that Socialism has ever (or can ever)come to terms with the increasing prevalence of "Intellectual Property" and a "Knowledge-based" Society.

How would be spread that "Wealth" around equitably?

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 05:00:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They (the gov't authority) will reach into your pocket, remove a Euro and give it to Freddy, who doesn't have one.

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne
by maracatu on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 05:37:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You're talking about Income. I'm talking about the Means Of Production, although I guess I should have said so...

Redistribution of Income doesn't get us very far, does it?

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 05:50:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think Europeans cast the threshold at a different point than do North Americans, no?  I mean, "socialism" in America is understood to encompass public ownership of the means of production (even if partial) while excluding the redistributive nature of taxation, while Europeans would include both, no?  Furthermore, I don't think Americans would consider Social Security as "socialist".  Anyway, my overall impression is that Americans have this aversion to "socialism" that the Europeans don't have.

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne
by maracatu on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 06:11:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think that perhaps the defining feature of the North American / "Western" model is the attitude to individual "ownership" and private property rights.

More than any other aspect. And this appears to me to be entirely consistent with what you say.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 06:35:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, you are right that socialism is an ideology that emerged in a society were commodities were touchable.  In todays society when knowledge/education and service is an ever increasing "commodity" some would say that this makes some of the old political ideologies irrelevant. I do not think so.  As long as knowledge and services can be converted into money and hard currency the old rules still apply.  One aim, is the equal and free distribution of education, another is to redistribute the tax revenues the state gets to the lesser fortunate in society.  

As long as knowledge generates money they can be redistributed.  

Bitsofnews.com Giving you the latest bits.

by Gjermund E Jansen (gjans1@hotmail.com) on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 06:54:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Precisely my point.  In fact there does not exist pure (or perfect or absolute) socialism nor capitalism, for that matter.  We are a product of both and there are elements of socialism and capitalism in all economies.  Who, then, sets the thresholds?

By the way, thanks for correcting my mistake on the SI.

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne

by maracatu on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 05:33:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But I find the identification of socialist policies (let's call them by their true name) with protectionism bizarre.

One of the key points made by Polanyi in questioning market fundamentalism, was the protectionism is natural, while lazziez faire is planned.  Which is to say the lazziez faire can only occur under a set of conditions where things like the limited liability company, strong contract law, and stable property rights exist.

So lazziez faire requires state intervention in order to exist.  Can you imagine the cost if the limited liability insurance provided by governments to publically owned companies had to underwritten by private insurers?  Or would they even be able to find an insurer willing to take that risk at any cost?

Remember that socialism and protectionism come from much the same place, social self defense against the tendency of the market to break all things down to matters of maxmizing utility regardless of the human cost.  

It's the triumph of the formal over the substantive (Weber), so that unmitigated capitalism falls prey to sacrifice the human aspect of life in pursuit of ideological goals.  

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 02:49:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Protectionism assumes there's such a thing as a nation state, and that introducing barriers to trade will increase the prosperity of a state. Except to the extent that a political mechanism exists by which barriers can be agreed and enforced, it has nothing specific to say about the internal politics of that state.

That's why I found the assumption bizarre. Even if there are historical reasons for assuming they come from the same place - which I think is a fair point, even if I don't agree that the reasons are all that relevant today - there's still the problem that we're really talking about a complicated collection of issues here.

Simple trade tariffs and capital extraction are only notionally connected. You can certainly have either without the other, and you can find either or both within nation states that tend towards progressive politics.

The underlying point is that thinking solely in terms of free trade vs laissez faire is a somewhat old fashioned world view when capital is bouncing around the planet at near instantaneous speeds.

"Will my CD player cost me an extra 3%?' is much less relevant to local and world politics than 'Who profits from the profit on it?'

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 04:28:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The underlying point is that thinking solely in terms of free trade vs laissez faire is a somewhat old fashioned world view when capital is bouncing around the planet at near instantaneous speeds.

I agree and would go one step further to add "interest groups" and hence politics to the whole equation.  The US, for example, champions free trade in the information and knowledge intensive sectors while showing itself very reluctant (along with Europe) to do the same in the agricultural sector (which is of prime importance to many poor developing countries).

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne

by maracatu on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 05:49:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
...champions free trade in the information and knowledge intensive sectors while showing itself very reluctant (along with Europe) to do the same in the agricultural sector...

There may be a natural reflex, as in being able to feed ones self, involved here.

I can swear there ain't no heaven but I pray there ain't no hell. _ Blood Sweat & Tears

by Gringo (stargazing camel at aoldotcom) on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 07:59:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You mean we can't eat dollars (or euros?)

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 08:03:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Point taken, but there's no denying the US and EU subsidies are hurting the Third World.

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne
by maracatu on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 09:03:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The US and EU champions "free trade" with our rules to protect our advantage (also known as TRIPS) in the information and knowledge intensive sectors. If it can be done with the agricultural sector (patented GMO crops), then there will be "free trade" in that area too.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 08:19:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
in the US and EU, that are unfair.

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne
by maracatu on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 09:06:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course they are. EU and US promotes unfair trade - that is, trade that is advantageos to EU and US - in all sectors. It is just a bit harder to do in the agricultural sector and still promote it as "free trade", so it ends up glaring obvious.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Wed Jul 18th, 2007 at 07:23:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hopefully we can find a way to talk about the difference between ALCA and ALBA in terms other than "Ricardian vs. Structuralist". And free movement of capital is not Ricardian.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 06:11:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Its funny that the discussion (so far) turned out to be precisely what I was trying to avoid (too theoretical).

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne
by maracatu on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 07:29:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Welcome to ET, would you rather this thread be filled with pictures of cats as had become the norm at some other sites?

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 07:41:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]


"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne
by maracatu on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 07:45:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]


And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 07:52:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
free movement of capital is not Ricardian

Neither is it Heckscher-Ohlinian either, although there are versions ...

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne

by maracatu on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 07:42:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It seems all these models assume full employment.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jul 18th, 2007 at 04:08:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
along with a heap load of other unrealistic assumptions.  Notice that "market failure" never makes it into any of them?

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne
by maracatu on Wed Jul 18th, 2007 at 12:19:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
the United States must tackle the core problem of the region

Yeah, that always turns out well.

I think we've done enough harm, thanks.

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.

by poemless on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 03:04:42 PM EST
Yeah!  Its probably best the US just ignore us!

Thanks for the link.  I always use this one.

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne

by maracatu on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 03:57:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm a bit surprised he doesn't list the US Govt. invasion of the Southern States in 1861.

I can swear there ain't no heaven but I pray there ain't no hell. _ Blood Sweat & Tears
by Gringo (stargazing camel at aoldotcom) on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 04:34:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Er a, maybe we'll do better next time?

I can swear there ain't no heaven but I pray there ain't no hell. _ Blood Sweat & Tears
by Gringo (stargazing camel at aoldotcom) on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 04:22:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As far as improving living standards in Latin America, is Chavez doing anything to reduce dependence on income from oil exports? Routing that money to the poor is all well and good, but over-reliance on natural resource exports a) can only go on for so long, b) ensures your customers will have political influence inside your country, and c) puts a pretty low ceiling on living standards.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 04:32:55 PM EST
I have to agree with you here.  Even Chavez's close advisors realize they are living on borrowed time.  However, if oil prices never drop?

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne
by maracatu on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 04:37:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Then it's still the same lose-lose situation SA, Iran, and Kuwait face - export the remaining oil in order to fund the budget while the public riots due to lack of fabulously subsidized oil, or placate the public and watch the budget go into the red to the point of government breakdown. Iran is already grappling with this (even as it's largely presented as a lack of internal refinery capacity). [On a side note the middle east is in a far, far more volatile situation as their population levels can't be supported without (essentially) trading oil for food.]

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 04:47:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
without undertaking new capital investments aimed at diversifying your economic base, then you are going nowhere.  Chavez's advisors know this, but I am still looking for evidence of them acting on it.

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne
by maracatu on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 05:25:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And, I think we may soon see Mexico grapple with quickly dwendling oil dollars/pesos as the Cantarell field goes into steep decline.

I can swear there ain't no heaven but I pray there ain't no hell. _ Blood Sweat & Tears
by Gringo (stargazing camel at aoldotcom) on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 08:03:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One of the advantages of ALBA over ALCA is that alca means nothing and alba means dawn. THe dawn of a new Bolivarian America, and all that. It's rather clever.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 06:38:55 PM EST
Doesn't alca mean a sort of penguin?

I agree that alba is a clever name.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 07:27:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
By Jove, you're right!


Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jul 18th, 2007 at 04:05:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There is no inherent superiority in laissez faire economies.  On the contrary, the economies that have been most successful in recent history have been dirigiste economies wherein the state has played a leading role (although not necessarily through state-run enterprises).  To avoid steering the discussion in too theoretical a direction, I think that Venezuela's future hinges on what the state does with the surplus that it generates from those pricy oil exports.  As I mentioned here, if it doesn't invest or direct private investment toward broadening the economic base and focuses too much on recurrent expenditures, it will not prosper in the long run.  So my answer is that ALBA can be prosperous if the proper capital investments are made (including human capital).

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne
by maracatu on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 07:57:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The subtext is possibly whether Chavez is going to follow old-style socialism, where money may be redistributed but power certainly isn't, or new style socialism, where both are redistributed.

Socialism's downfall has always been monolithic top-down statism, and centralised power (hint...) generation has always been a part of that.

Moving money around isn't enough unless you also change the politcal structures associated with it. Putting new people into the same old structures isn't enough.

With sustainables, redistribution of power has the potential to become not just physical, but metaphorical and political too.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 08:25:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Suppose you have a large rural agricultural sector that demands agrarian reform in the manner of the best agricultural lands being subdivided into small plots and distributed to the peasantry.  You end up forgoing the bountiful production you could have obtained from economies of scale and possibly bring a famine upon the population.  That is part of the reason Haiti is so poor (and its land so unproductive) today.

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne
by maracatu on Tue Jul 17th, 2007 at 09:17:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Refer to Another Urban Legend Bites the Dust by DeAnander on July 16th, 2007

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jul 18th, 2007 at 02:47:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't see how the question of "scale" relates to this.

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne
by maracatu on Wed Jul 18th, 2007 at 01:40:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No you don't, because the profit from that production wouldn't be shared with the peasants anyway - unless the government steps in with socialist redistribution policies.

And the real reason Haiti is poor is because of an international aid embargo followed by a somewhat inconvenient invasion.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Jul 18th, 2007 at 08:36:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And before that Haiti was ruled by "Papa Doc" and "Baby Doc" Duvalier for 30 years.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jul 18th, 2007 at 09:00:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
While I am restricted to on-line sources to prove my point (which aren't the best), this is common knowledge to the point that it is written into the history books (In fact, Aristide himself will tell you what I am telling you).  Nevertheless, here is one source:

About 70 percent of the agricultural land is hilly, and the average agricultural plot is only a little more than an acre. The plots worked by the poorest peasants are even smaller, of course. There are also some commercial farms that produce for export. Because of the poor soil and the smallness of most of the plots, productivity on the land is very low. As a consequence, the rural population, which is about two thirds of the total, produces only about a third of gross domestic product. The main crop is coffee, much of which is exported.

The subdivision of the land into small plots took place early in the nineteenth century. After the death in 1806 of Dessalines--the second of the two great leaders of the Haitian Revolution, the first being Toussaint L'Ouverture--his two principal generals Petion and Christophe established kingdoms in the South and North respectively. Petion immediately parceled out much of the land of his kingdom to his troops. Christophe at first kept his land together and instituted a highly productive plantation agriculture with a form of forced labor not far removed from slavery. But before he died he succumbed to the unrest of the peasants and subdivided the land in the North as well.

As long as the population was relatively small, there was great poverty in Haiti but not the ecological crisis that has come to maturity in the years since the Second World War. It is evident that if the rural economy is to survive, at the very least there needs to be both a system of catchments, reservoirs, and irrigation conduits and an extensive program of reforestation. But the peasants need also to withdraw land from regular cultivation so as take measures to restore its fertility. If the rural areas were organized collectively, some of what is necessary could be carried out by the collectives, but the predominance of small tenant plots and individual responsibility makes such organization impossible on the scale that is needed for survival.

Here is another source.

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne

by maracatu on Wed Jul 18th, 2007 at 01:50:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I said part of the reason that Haiti is poor. While I am not denying your statement, I have to reiterate my statement because I know Haiti well.  It is common knowledge (any Haitian will tell you this) that the subdivision (by Petion) of the large estates into small plots of land for redistribution to the peasantry is at the root of Haiti's soil erosion problem.  I have to run, but give me time and I will provide you with unimpeachable sources on this (if you doubt me).

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne
by maracatu on Wed Jul 18th, 2007 at 12:28:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
unless the government steps in with socialist redistribution policies.


"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne
by maracatu on Wed Jul 18th, 2007 at 01:52:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
good thread...

perhaps capitalism is a fast car, and socialism is the wisdom, (learned from a long history of melted wreckage), not to run the rpm in the red all the time.

' he who travels fastest, travels alone' has to give way to 'the speed of the slowest'.

it's very difficult to change, if you were raised in a 'law of the financial jungle' kill-ture, because it speaks to the atavistic survivor in us all, and asks him/her to consider the world from a wider, more compassionate viewpoint.

like crossing a dog with a pony...

as in dony blair?

i think we can expect more odd mutations as we cross the metaphorical invisible equator line and the water swirls down the plug differently...

growing pains, as whole societies try to apply the dictum of 'know thyself' across the entire socio-economic board.

the best potential future model so far seems to be the one chris cook is so patiently educating us about.

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Wed Jul 18th, 2007 at 03:41:23 AM EST
At some point, the United States must tackle the core problem of the region: Latin America's persistent poverty. Mr. Chávez, for his part, has been addressing the issues surrounding this simple fact for six years now.  Meanwhile, the Bush Administration continues to pursue market reforms, privatization, and free trade agreements, without realizing that Latin Americans are increasingly blaming all three for their plight. A shift in strategy is desperately needed to reassure the region that this is not the case.
This is really something... How come 'market reforms' and 'free trade' and the rest of the Washington 'consensus' have not been thoroughly discredited by their repeated failures to make inroads on problems of poverty? I mean, these same people have no problem claiming that any and all 'socialist' ideas have been completely 'proved' 'wrong' with the Soviet collapse. But, 'free market' thinking is clearly right, no matter what the evidence of its destructive effects on developing nations. (Because poverty was never the issue to begin with? The interest was always on the side of creating the most favorable climate for business profits and continued prosperity of the well-off, and a strengthening of their position?) Let's just make trade a bit freer and prosperity will flow to all!!! Yeah, not stupid enough to buy that little claim, since it seems to be backed up by exactly nothing in the forms of actual outcomes... In fact, one might say it has been contraindicated...
by someone (s0me1smail(a)gmail(d)com) on Wed Jul 18th, 2007 at 04:20:15 AM EST
The real issue I think is why it has taken the people who peddle this nonsense so long to be called out on it.

Somehow it has become a 'consensus' by sheer repetition, and not because of any supporting evidence.

In reality it's pure propaganda of the most shameless quasi-Soviet sort.

And yet it's not usually seen as such. The talking points are taken seriously and debated as if they were valid points of view, rather than lies and spin.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Jul 18th, 2007 at 08:39:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think it's because one doesn't normally assume people are bald-faced liars, and because these liars have taken advantage of the accumulated reputation and trust of the media, government agencies and academia.

It's taken a long time for people to catch on to the fact that it's all lies.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jul 18th, 2007 at 08:51:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Joseph Stiglitz, has criticised the "Washington Consensus".

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne
by maracatu on Wed Jul 18th, 2007 at 12:10:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
of economic inquiry.  Poverty is couched in terms of not enough economic growth (erroneously the more GDP you have, the less poverty you are supposed to have - the distribution of said GDP being left up to others).  GDP, or GDP per capita, in and of itself is a poor indicator of poverty.  However imperfect, the HDI is a much better tool for measuring poverty reduction.

Also the religious faith in the free market as the ticket to prosperity has been debunked by historical facts.  As I have said elsewhere, the economies that have prospered (and here again, I am using the GDP indicator alone), have not relied on the free market but pursued instead a dirigiste role for the state.  If you want to add the "Democracy" to that, then people will just laugh you right out of the room.

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne

by maracatu on Wed Jul 18th, 2007 at 11:54:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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