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Countdown to $100 oil (56)- final diary

by Jerome a Paris Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 12:51:05 PM EST

This is it. Forward month WTI has touched $100. The Series is officially over. In yesterday's edition (Countdown to $100 oil (55) - and the winner is...), I noted that I would open the floor to everybody to select the next target for oil prices, so take the poll.

Naturally, the first diary of the new series will be to bet for end-2008 prices.


Earlier Countdown diaries:
Countdown to $100 oil (55) - and the winner is...
Countdown to ?100 oil (54): OPEC ready to dump dollar?
Countdown to $100 oil (53) - Saudis happy with $100 oil
Countdown to $100 oil (52) - buying protection
Countdown to $100 oil (51) - we'll never see 100mbd
Countdown to $100 oil (50) - it's no longer 'oil', it's 'liquids'
Countdown to $100 oil (49) - peak oil and libertarians
Countdown to $100 oil (48) - 85, 86, 87, 88, ...
Countdown to $100 oil (47) - Malthus, Mein Kampf and ostriches
Countdown to $100 oil (46) - what's a dollar worth?
Countdown to $100 oil (45) - time to bet again (eurotrib)
Countdown to $100 oil (45) - time to bet again (DailyKos)
Countdown to $100 oil (44) - oil industry admits it cannot save us
Countdown to $100 oil (43) - IEA boss denies and confirms peak oil in same breath
Countdown to $100 oil (42) - IEA predicts shortages within 5 years
Countdown to $100 oil (41) - oil more expensive than it appears
Countdown to $100 oil (40) - Undulating plateau
Countdown to $100 oil (39) - BigOil running out of oil
Countdown to $100 oil (38) - Who gets Champagne edition
Countdown to $100 oil (37) - OPEC says peak oil (and $100 oil) is near
Countdown to $100 oil (36) - Free game! win champagne! no risk! (eurotrib)
Countdown to $100 oil (36) - Free game! win champagne! no risk! (DailyKos)
Countdown to $100 oil (35) - peak oil: the last skeptics capitulate (CERA)
Countdown to $100 oil (34) - Oil major CEO calls for demand reduction
Countdown to $100 oil (33) - Below zero
Countdown to $100 oil (32) - peak oil is, like, so over. Not!
Countdown to $100 oil (31) - $15 oil? The cornucopians are fighting back
Countdown to $100 oil (30) - senior politico fears looming oil wars
Countdown to $100 oil (29) - Alaska joins axis of evil (unreliable oil suppliers)
Countdown to $100 oil (28) - New records suggest more to come
Countdown to $100 oil (27) - 'Mission Accomplished' - High oil prices are here to stay
Countdown to $100 oil (26) - Time to bet again (eurotrib)
Countdown to $100 oil (26) - Time to bet again (dKos)
Countdown to $100 oil (25) - Iran vows that oil prices will not go down
Countdown to $100 oil (24) - What markets are telling us about future energy prices
Countdown to $100 oil (23) - Running out of natural gas in North America
Countdown to 100$ oil (22) - gas shortages in the UK - 240$/boe
Countdown to $100 oil (21A) - The 4 biggest oil fields in the world are in decline *
Countdown to 100$ oil (21bis) - long term vs short term worries (dKos)
Countdown to 100$ oil (21) - 8-page extravaganza in the Independent: 'we're doomed'
Countdown to 100$ oil (20) - Meteor Blades is Da Man in 2005
Countdown to 100$ oil (19) - Your bets for 2006 (Eurotrib)
Countdown to 100$ oil (19) - Your bets for 2006 (DailyKos)
Countdown to 100$ oil (18) - OPEC happy with oil above 50$
Countdown to 100$ oil (17) - Does it matter politically? A naked appeal for your support
Countdown to 100$ oil (16) - We'll know on Monday
Countdown to 100$ oil (15) - the impact on your electricity bill
Countdown to 100$ oil (14) - Greenspan acknoweldges peak oil
Countdown to 100$ oil (13) - Katrina strikes / refinery crisis
Countdown to 100$ oil (12) - Al-Qaeda, oil and Asian financial centers
Countdown to 100$ oil (11) - it's Greenspan's fault!
Countdown to 100$ oil (10) - Simmons says 300$ soon - and more
Countdown to 100$ oil (9) - I am taking bets (eurotrib)
Countdown to 100$ oil (9) - I am taking bets (dKos)
Countdown to 100$ oil (8) - just raw data
Countdown to 100$ oil (7) - a smart solution: the bike
Countdown to 100$ oil (6) - and the loser is ... Africa
Countdown to 100$ oil (5) - OPEC inexorably raises floor price
Countdown to 100$ oil (4) - WSJ wingnuts vs China
Countdown to 100$ oil (3) - industry is beginning to suffer
Countdown to 100$ oil (2) - the views of the elites on peak oil
Countdown to 100$ oil (1) (eurotrib)
Countdown to 100$ oil (1) (dKos)
* added to the series after the fact

Poll
What should the next target be?
. $50 0%
. $200 16%
. $1000 0%
. €100 72%
. other (please add in comments) 12%

Votes: 25
Results | Other Polls
Display:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/1/2/12403/26623
Thanks for your support to make this one visible over there.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 12:55:22 PM EST
centdrum

Here's my response: a $100 oil barrel. I almost missed this because of the Iowa caucuses, but I was meaning to do that graphic ever since it got close to $100 a couple of months ago. Hope you enjoy the graphic; I put it under the Creative Commons Share-Alike license, so if you (or anyone else here) wants to use it for anything, go right ahead.

As a computer geek, I'll suggest $256 a barrel oil as the next target. Gotta stick to nice round numbers, not desultory ones like 100. :^)

(Cross-commented to DailyKos.)

Il faut se dépêcher d'agir, on a le monde à reconstruire

by dconrad (drconrad {arobase} gmail {point} com) on Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 05:27:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You never flinched on this message. And we became more aware of that sucking sound from China that got louder and louder.

by shergald on Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 07:38:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
When you started the series 18 months ago oil was in the $50 - 60 region, but most of the movement to $100 has taken place in the last 3 - 6 months as the situation began to fracture.

So, will oil hang around the psychologically significant figure of $100 ? Or will the continued descent of the dollar keep things moving ? I'd guess the latter very strongly. It could just as easily be $150 by mid-summer as it could be lurking at $120.

But the question is, now you've proved your point is there any reason to have a series of quickly achievable prices, eg $200. Or would it be more interesting to set the bar higher as a statement of intent at how badly things will deteriorate in politically significant timescales ? In which case $500 might be more useful.


keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 01:02:43 PM EST
Congratulations Jerome!

I saw this from WSJ and came right to ET to clap (just joking):

Crude-oil prices surged more than $3 a barrel and appeared to touch $100 in New York Mercantile Exchange trading for the first time, driven by weakness in the dollar and concerns about tight supplies. A Nymex spokeswoman said one $100 floor trade was legitimate, though that has not yet been confirmed. Stocks, already lower, fell even more, with the Dow recently down about 200 points.

IMHO, the countdown diaries have made their statement. CO2 ppm levels may be appropriate for another type of countdown diary to doomsday or we could try something positive -- a goal to strive for (% of installed renewable capacity) but maybe the rate of change is not that fast there.

Staying with the oil theme, the $200 mark is probably appropriate although it will take some time to get there as increases in oil production (however temporary) and the economic slowdown will probably bring prices down in the next couple of years.

Orthodoxy is not a religion.

by BalkanIdentity (balkanid _ at _ google.com) on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 01:23:52 PM EST
Staying with the oil theme, the $200 mark is probably appropriate although it will take some time to get there

Maybe.

But it's not just about the price of oil: it's also about the price of the dollar....

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 01:26:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
For which reason, we should have a countdown to €100 oil.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 03:57:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Countdown to 10% renewables globally works for me.  sections on defining what is and isn't sustainable or true renewables, sections on the countries which are already above 20%, breakdown into the various technologies.  But maybe that's too far out.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 02:03:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Comment crosspost from Daily Kos.

after your earlier diary one looking ahead to 2008, I matched the list of mega oil projects that you linked to at the page the Oil Drum Europe people made on Wikipedia, and matched that on a spreadsheet I made using the US DOE numbers on 1980-2007 oil production.  I used the consumption trend of the past two years (Post Katrina and the the rise in oil prices) and matched it to to the production increases from those oil projects. Then I ran the numbers out to 2013 when the "wall of oil" destine for the world markets dries up.

It's interesting.

Brazil becomes a major oil exporter by 2013, exporting 2.88 mbd more than currently.  Canada puts an additional 2.65 mbd on the market. At the same time US consumption is down  by over a million barrels a day if 05-07 consumption trends hold.  This is true for most of the OECD, but consumption is way up in underdeveloped countries.  China needs to find another 3.43 mbd on the world market, and India another 0.22 mbd on the world market.

Huge consumption increases in the OPEC states.  The 1 mbd decrease in the US, is matched by a similiar increase in Saudi Arabia.  

And all off this assumes that current oil field production remains constant, when its more likely that fields like Ghawar in Saudi and Cantarell in Mexico are in terminal decline.


And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 01:41:12 PM EST
I think your post is a little misleading. Cantarell is most definitely in terminal decline, no one denies that anymore (even if that decline is partly compensated by increasin extraction in the KMZ-complex), while there is no conclusive proof whatsoever that Ghawar is in decline.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 02:13:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Terminal decline might seem a bit over the top, but it is most likely in decline.

The Saudis have developed Ghawar by using peripheral water injection-- water is pumped into the reservoir, driving the remaining oil to the surface. More details about Saudi production were available before 1980, allowing Staniford to infer that the depth of the remaining oil column in northern Ghawar at that time was about 500 feet. Evidence from many sources suggests that the water level has been rising at about 18.4 feet per year. If you extrapolate that trend, this would mean that the northern part of Ghawar is by now quite depleted.

Staniford has also built a detailed computer simulation of the Ghawar reser­voir, based on its size and shape, the porosity and permeability of its rock, and the assumed oil-extraction rates. The results of this simulation line up remarkably well with Staniford's other calculations. Oil production from northern Ghawar has likely peaked.

Southern Ghawar still holds a lot of oil, and perhaps the kingdom's push to find new fields will bear fruit. But northern Ghawar was developed first because it was by far the most promising field. Its production cannot be easily replaced. At about the same time that Saudi production began its decline, the new Haradh project in southern Ghawar began producing perhaps an additional 300,000 barrels a day. The Saudis have also made a huge investment to reopen the Qatif field on the eastern coast, which they had abandoned in 1995; it is now producing an estimated half-million barrels a day. With Saudi production falling despite these new contributions, the situation could be serious.



And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 02:21:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]


Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 01:44:58 PM EST
Gold and oil up at the same time? Looks like what's down is the dollar.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 01:51:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Only in part.

(Though I'm tricky by using current exchange rate instead of the not yet released official daily rate for today.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 03:52:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Please crosspost this to Jerome's diary on Daily Kos.  

It matters a great deal

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 04:44:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Done. Just noticed dKos software cuts images beyond 500 pixels, had to re-size 'em all. I hope my Photobucket bandwidth won't be filled...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 06:13:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Luis de Sousa downthread sees this as a "flight to quality" away from all paper currencies.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 05:01:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The article itself is rather dismissive, even if it seems to think that peakoilers can usefully be ridden on to "curb dependence". Sigh...


Peak no evil

(...)

Even if the world's total amount of oil can be established - estimates vary wildly - better technology means the proportion that can be pumped out increases over time. Since 1980, this has risen, on average, from a fifth to more than a third, boosting recoverable reserves. In spite of rising consumption, the ratio of oil reserves to output has been pretty constant since the late 1980s. Today's high oil prices also make complex sources, such as oil sands, viable and damp consumption.

Oil output is not just a function of geology. "Surface" factors such as Opec have a huge impact. Indeed, geopolitics and environmental concerns provide enough reasons to curb dependence on oil for transportation. If the noise generated by the peak oil debate adds to the sense of urgency in addressing this, it will serve some useful purpose.



In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 08:40:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This seems to be the best demonstration why the marketistas are leading us into crisis.  They assume that demand creates supply, so that so long as there is increased demand for oil there will be increase supply.  After all that's the logic of the market, but it's idiotic.  

Oil was not made by the market, and ultimately no amount of demand is going to make new oil once its all we've burnt it all up.  It's the very essence of what Karl Polanyi said in the Great Transformation. Land is a fictitious commodity, oil was not created by the market, and eventually there's just not going to be enough oil. And this is true of most other commodities as well.  The market doesn't make them, so it just doesn't make sense to pretend that it does.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 09:13:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually, it does. For a while. Longer for some (mineral oil) than for others (whale oil) and even practically forever for some (iron).

And anyway, in the long run...

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 06:51:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It harvests them, and transforms them into economic resources, but it does not make them.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 10:13:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The market doesn't make them, so it just doesn't make sense to pretend that it does.

That what I meant makes sense. For a while.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 11:57:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In the FT sense of the phrase ... can help contribute to ensuring that those who are currently winners continue to win ... yes, it may make sense to pretend they are what they are not.

From the perspective of understanding what is going on around us, it doesn't make sense to pretend that fictitious commodities are products of the market in either the long term or the short term.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 12:02:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Jerome a Paris:
Oil output is not just a function of geology.

No, of course not. But it seems to dance around the fact that if we can solve the other functions influencing output, the geological finity to oil will also disappear in a puff of happy smoke...

by Nomad on Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 06:41:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Can I edit the book compiling your countdown diaries?

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 01:48:59 PM EST
What do you have in mind?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 02:22:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We put the articles together in book form, with the comment threads. We provide footnotes and/or introductory notes to each diary updating any out of date statements made in them. We provide a general introduction and conclusion.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 02:49:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
just ET diaries? or Kos ones too?

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 02:53:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oil prices... have quadrupled since 2003.

Mission Accomplished.

by Magnifico on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 02:20:54 PM EST
Brilliant, Magnifico.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 03:09:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]



*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 03:45:56 PM EST
From 1979 to 1999 Oil went down from 100 to $10 a barrel in inflation adjusted terms.  There may be some adjustment down for a while now if recession really hits and supply exceed demand.  Much of the demand growth is in the developing world which can least afford current prices and thus will be very price sensitive.  The danger is that such a temporary price fall will lead to reduced emphasis on alternatives.  Its always difficult to predict a turning point but we must beware making the argument for peak oil just on price trends.  Prices could well come down quite a bit before the next long haul up to a much higher peak.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 06:34:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Count on demand destruction coming not primarily from transportation anywhere, but from power and industry in the developing world as they switch over to much cheaper alternatives like coal (why do you think China builds a coal plant a week?). A coal boe is still $10-15.

There's about 15 mbpd to cut here, and that's gonna happen even if oil prices fall by a third. And it might happen fast. The OECD cut 8 mbdp in non-transportattion demand in 1979-1984.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 06:51:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's nothing of the sort. It's just that the monetary costs are low for the corporations digging or burning the stuff, and the actual costs are dumped on others.

That's no more "cheap" than shitting in someone's garden can be called "cheap toilets"

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 10:36:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's cheap if you don't care about other people...

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 11:58:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Don't worry - it's just a temporary spike. According to the UK treasury, prices will fall to $35pbb in 2030 with, most of the decline from 2012 onwards.

We're saved. I'm so happy.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 05:36:03 PM EST
I guess everybody will switch over to alternative fuels and whatnot, and so nobody will need oil anymore, thus collapsing the price.  Yay!
by Zwackus on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 06:12:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Why switch to alternative if oil is going to become so cheap?  People will be switching TO oil if they believe that

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 06:24:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well hey, with a banking apocalypse, oil could be $25 by the end of the year!

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 07:44:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Dollar fear sparks rush to oil and gold

The $100-a-barrel level was reached as the result of a single trade by two independent traders - known as locals - at the Nymex floor, industry sources said.

Before the trade, oil prices were at $99.53 a barrel. In spite of the controversy about the single trade, crude oil closed up $3.64 at $99.62 a barrel in New York. The White House said President George W. Bush would not tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and was focused on other ways to boost US oil supplies.



In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 08:34:00 PM EST
Shit, any price is reached as a result of a single trade. The market is fucking discrete!

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 08:38:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]


We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 08:38:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Don't undermine their attempts to undermine the significance of that trade!

It was not the omnipotent Market if it was only two lousy traders (which have now been fired, lol)

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 08:41:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Talk about wrongful termination...

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 09:29:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
they work for themselves (independent players usually).

Sounds like someone had a bet working and got off a one lot trade before anyone else could respond.  Bit tacky to trade through the other offers.  Surprised the NYMEX didn't kick the trade out.

No biggy.  We're basically there ($100)

For 2008, I'm betting lower though with GWB in the White House screwing up all over the world, any sort of political mess could keep things on a boil.  But if his recession comes, we go lower.

by HiD on Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 04:15:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Someone mentioned that China is likely to pull the plug after the Olympics.

If there is a recession, how low is "lower"?

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 04:53:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Really hard to say now.  Used to be a lack of cohesion in OPEC could drop prices 50% in a very short period of time.  Now with Nigeria unable to control their angry population in the oil areas (production down 20+%), Indo an importer, Venz still not recovering from their civil strife (production down), Russia back in growth mode leaving less for export in the longer term, Mexico in decline etc etc, price is really up to Saudi, Kuwait and the Emirates.  

I could see the Saudis tolerating $60-75 if they see evidence higher prices are leading to real acceleration of shifting to alternatives.  They're smart enough to know that once people shift, they won't come back.

If we have a serious worldwide recession such that demand drops back to say 70 MMBD from current 80-84 range, we could go even lower as at that level Saudi and Kuwait could turn off their entire production and there would still be a surplus.   OPEC had that size drop in the pull of their production in the 80's which led to oil going from $40 to $10 (say $100---$25 now).

http://www.wtrg.com/oil_graphs/PAPRPOP.gif

Odds of that happening???  got me.

by HiD on Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 04:39:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You couldn't make it up!

The fact that $100 oil when it came, was as a result of an apparently manipulative "high tick" trade by locals just about sums up the current system, which is run by intermediaries, for intermediaries...

I'll believe NYMEX (which has always been run by locals for locals) takes compliance seriously the moment they start videotaping the trading floor, which was the first thing I introduced when I started as Head of Compliance at IPE 17 years ago.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 04:18:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Had somebody made a bet on $100 oil ?

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Wed Jan 2nd, 2008 at 08:40:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Jérôme, first of all congratulations, you had the clairvoyance to start writing about this before most of the people in the finance/economics sphere even knew there was a fundamental problem with oil supply.

Last week was very strange with Brent above 96, Tapis above 102, Lousiana above 100 and the WTI staying put. Yesterday when I checked the prices early in the morning gold was trading way north of 570 €/oz, I knew we were in for something. I had to dive into work and only got the news late night by the TV.

Today gold is above 580 €/oz and the USDX is sinking again below 76. Above all we are witnessing a run away from paper currencies and that's why we haven't yet the dollar stampede that you also forecast. But eventually all those dollar bonds and bills will become so light that the wind itself will blow them away.

You might find me At The Edge Of Time.

by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]a[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]gmail[dot]com) on Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 03:18:17 AM EST
I voted for €100 but I am not sure that a new countdown series is necessary. Here's why.

The way I see the present series, it neatly documents the last 30 months and introduces peak oil to the audience, which seems to be the real intention of the series.

Now that peak oil has been introduced, what would be the objective of the new series? Just waiting for the next psychological price barrier to be breached doesn't seem enough.

I would concentrate on the Anglo Disease/Greenspan series, especially because if things go pear-shaped during 2008 it would be good to have a series which blames the neoliberal consensus for the disaster before it is acknowledged to be a disaster, predicts broadly what will happen and presents an alternative economic narrative.

Just my $0.03

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jan 4th, 2008 at 05:08:03 PM EST


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