Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 05:42:20 PM EST
Every blog in the entire frickin' Universe has an Iowa Prediction diary.
Why should ET be any different?
Instead of giving percentages I will give my top 3 predictions and why I put them there.
from the diaries. Use as a results thread when they come out. -- Jérôme
Edwards: he has been campaigning in Iowa since 2003. Has a lot of carry-over of support and a solid, in place precinct organization with experience of and working within the caucuses . He is the largest 2nd choice Candidate and so will gather votes when Obama isn't viable from the 'Not Clinton' people and from the Clinton people when Hillary isn't viable. That's a major, major, advantage and I think will put him over the top.
Clinton: She is the establishment candidate. The Clinton DLC faction will pull in enough 1st Choice votes to bring her into 2nd. She has little 2nd choice support & that's why she won't win.
Obama: he will get some votes but the expectation of a mass turn-out of young people won't happen. He lacks the precinct organizations of Clinton and Edwards. He lacks the backing of the Establishment Democrats in Iowa. He comes in 2nd in 2nd Choice preference and that's not enough to kick him over the top.
Huckabee -- he is exactly the candidate that will appeal to the southern and northern tier of counties. He won't do all that great along the I-80 corridor but the western counties will pitch in to help him take it.
Romney -- The 'eh?' candidate. People aren't thrilled about him but he has spent the bucks and has a sufficient precinct organization to carry him to second place. The I-80 corridor will go heavy for him & that's how he gets to be #2.
McCain -- The 'Aw-heck' candidate. He will come in third because he's not one of the other guys. He is enough 'Not the Other Guys' and has the name recognition to pick-up enough scattered support to eke out a 3rd.