I don't want to give people here the heebee jeebees as we say in Ireland, but the national head to head polls indicate that a Clinton McCain national contest is the one combination of candidates that the Republicans would actually win!

Fortunately

European Tribune - Comments - Polling disasters: Who is really doing to win the US election (Part 3)

To a European observer the most striking thing about the US party nominee elections is how volatile they are.  In many European elections a 5% swing is regarded as very significant when it takes place over the course of an entire campaign and opinion polls are often accurate to well within their stated +- 3% points  margin of error.  In the US elections, however, opinion polls published on the same day by different companies can often differ by much more than this.

looks like polling companies would be about as effective as the Romans disemboweling chickens and reading their entrails.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

Many years ago I did some market research for a rather famous brand of Irish beer.  The company was interested in finding out why there was so much variability in their share of the total beer sales from pub to pub.  So we analyse those factors which influed drinkers in their choice of Brand AT THE POINT OF ENTERING A PUB AND PLACING THEIR ORDER.

The results where very  very interesting and had a major impact on Company strategy.  The most important factors where:

1. Is it a traditional or a modern pub in terms of decor (traditional favoured Guinness, modern favoured lager)

2. What were most people in the pub drinking (no experienced draught beer drinker wants to be the first to drink a particular brand on a particular day, becuse that beer may have been sitting in the pipeline all night and may have oxidised slightly or been stored in warmer conditions.

3. Hot weather favoured lagers

4. The most important factor was if the Barman made some kind of prompt - e.g. its a great day for a Guinness, or Guiness would go great with that meal you just ordered etc.

It also led to a huge emphasis on point of sale materials, advertising on Menus, and the training of bar staff to assist customers in their choice of drink.

All of this goes a long way to explain the huge importance of having your supporters and branding materials strategically located outside polling stations.  It also explains the huge importance of media and opinion poll created perceptions of "surges" for particular candidates.

In my (long distance and uniformed view) a critical factor may have been Hilary's alleged "breakdown" and its treatment by the hostile media.  To most people she was just showing she was human and it was the first time many might have warmed to her.  But that is just my guess.

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In Europe, don't the party elite put candidates forward in a general election?

There's a degree of familiarity and limitedness there (party affiliation) that is not available in a primary, where party affiliation means nada.

People are in the process of making their decisions. National polls are almost useless.

John Kerry was polling 3% of the vote right before the primaries last time. A combo of factors brought him back from the dead despite the polling.

There was no shortage of polls going into the New Hampshire primary in 2008 and it looks like we all missed the mark on the Democratic side. This will require a lot of scrutiny in the coming days and weeks, but here are some initial thoughts on what has been happening:

1. According to the exit polls, 18% of the voters said that they made up their minds on primary day. That is just an unprecedented number. I have polled many races, especially close ones, where 4% to 8% have said they finally decided on their vote the day of the election and that can wreak havoc on those of us who are in the business of capturing pre-election movements and trends. But nearly one in five this time?

2. It looks like the always feisty voters in both Iowa and New Hampshire have rejected pre-election coronations. In the case of Iowa, Democratic voters said that Mrs. Clinton is not inevitable, while in New Hampshire they were not ready to endorse the Obama train without checking the engine.

First and foremost... the fact that youc an even poll is based on a very complex sicience.. called statistics.. whioo has a very clear set of preconditions... sometimes if you do not follow those preconditions you more or less can get to the same results as iuf you don't.. but in other cases... you skip a precondition whcih should be fulfilled and all it goes to the bin..

Margin of errors have only meaning if the samples is unbiased, if the numbe ro f variables to make a decision is high, if they are u nccorrelated, if .. if.. if..

Some of thsoe if can be overcome other can be made it so by the polling (what sociolists call real good poll), and anotehr just can not be..

If you want really get useful sociological data you need an anthropologichal approach to polling.. face to face.. living and double-checking the data...

Any other poll is wrong.. in the sense that error bars are maningless... and in POLLS BY PHONE eror bars are meaningless.... you'd better use tea leafs.

In other words, sampling error can be addressed but never diminished by a proper poll whciha ccoutns for all the double and triple checks to eb sure that it all makes sense... adn even then.. there is the so-called kitchen where you jsut change the data so as to fix to another model.

In other words.. enver never never trust political polls... they are done to make poeople repeat what the polling people want to hear... For real polls in sociology you should go to serious journals where serious studies and ahrdcore data about population classification are obtained.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

Personally, were I living in New Hampshire, I would have gone from NFC to Hillary in the last day.  

NFC because -and I think most non-blogosphere hardcore activist type Democrats and Independents feel this way- any one of the top 3 or 4 Dem. candidates would be a huge improvement, all have something remarkable to offer and all have their weaknesses and faults.  We in the wonk-o-sphere can detail the ways their positions differ, but the fact is they are more alike than different, and their main differences are matters of style, symbolism, and other intangibles.

Hillary because I was really impressed with her debate performance, because this idea the Obama and Edwards represent some new, clean, idealistic, pure politics whereas Hillary represents the old, corrupt, cut-throat, machine politics was pretty much blown out of the water when we saw Obama and Edwards tag teaming at the debates and moreover, the just rotten response from their supposedly angelic supporters, attacking her on personal grounds and being just as slimy as the politicians they are supposed to be an alternative to, and most importantly, because I don't want this race decided by Iowa.  I want a real Primary that lasts long enough for people to get past the star-stuck frenzy over Obama and really get down to the issues.  She's right.  This isn't a game.  This isn't American Idol.

So it's not incomprehensible to me that as a reaction to the media practically crowning Obama after Iowa and to the ugly personal attacks on her after the "tears" moment, people switched gears or people who would have stayed home were motivated to go out and vote in support of her.  Plus, NH is notorious for not wanting to be taken for granted.  

Voter fraud?  The problem with Bush stealing elections is that now the validity of all elections are called into question.  It's possible.  Hell, I wouldn't put anything past Terry McAuliffe.  

I'm delighted she won.  I still don't know who the best candidate is.  But I'm glad that decision hasn't already been made for me before I get a chance to go to the polls.  And I think it can only help Obama to be knocked a few rungs down the latter.  Some humility could not possibly hurt his campaign, which seemed to be buying into the very inevitability theme they slammed Clinton for running on.  


"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.

Without a doubt, a big source of the discrepancy between the pre-election surveys and the election outcome in New Hampshire is the order of candidates' names on the ballot and in the surveys.

Our analysis of all recent primaries in New Hampshire showed that there was always a big primacy effect -- big-name, big-vote-getting candidates got 3 percent or more votes more when listed first on the ballot than when listed last.

Until this year, New Hampshire rotated candidate name order from precinct to precinct, which allowed us to do that analysis.

This year, the secretary of state changed the procedure so the names were alphabetical starting with a randomly selected letter, in all precincts.

If McCain continues to beat Romney and Giulliani and unites all the non-Christian right behind him, does that not mean he wins the GOP nomination and has a good shot at the Presidency?

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