by das monde
Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 03:07:04 AM EST
Yesterday was the second round of Lithuanian Seimas elections: 68 (out of 71) individuals seats were still open. In total, the parliament has 141 seats.
The outcome is favourable to the brightest winners of the first round. The Homeland Union/Christian Democrats picked up 26 more seats yesterday, totaling 44. The TV showman Valinskas party added 3 seats, and has 16 seats in total. If you add 11 seats of the Liberal Movement, you get 71 - the minimum majority. This likely coalition will likely be joined by Zuokas' Liberal and Center Union (with 8 seats).
In the following picture, from left to right in front:
Artūras Zuokas, Arūnas Valinskas, Andrius Kubilius (Homeland Union) and Gintaras Steponavičius (Liberal Movement)
A table with results is below the fold.
Promoted by afew
The second and third columns give the official results of the party list voting. Compared with the table of 2 weeks ago, the conservative Homeland Union edged 1 more seat (eventually thanks to 36.4% support from voters abroad).
With the total number of seats, I indicate how many seats were won with party listing and today. (The middle number, if present, shows individual seats won immediately.) The run-off projections should be compared to the last summand in the seat column.
|Party||Votes||Percentage||Earlier run-off projections|
|of valid votes||Seats ||Likely + Toss-up + Underdog|
|Homeland Union - Christian Democrats
|Rising Nation Party (Arūnas Valinskas, LNK TV)||186629||15.09||16=13+3
|Order And Justice (Rolandas Paksas)
|Darbo Partija (Labour Party)
|Lith. Rep. Liberal Movement (without Zuokas)
|The Liberal and Center Union (with Zuokas) ||66078||5.34||8=5+3
|The Polish minority party
|Lithuanian Peasant Popular Union (Prunskienė) ||46162||3.73||3=0+3||1+4+1
|Other, and independents||106048||8.57||4=0+4||2+3+2|
First round (October 12): Voter participation - 1309965 (48.59%). Non-valid votes - 73239 (5.59%). The 5% barrier (derived from the number of all participating voters) is 65499.
Second round (October 26): Voter participation - 833879 (32.05%). Non-valid votes - 35511 (4,26%).
The conservatives (Homeland Union/Christian Democrats) get their second chance to govern. The same can be said about the liberals (that tried with Paksas in 2000). The liberals may have presented their policies more diligently than other parties. The success of Valinskas' party is remarkable as well, of course. First performances of Valinskas as a public person were rather spicy.
It will be interesting to see, how the conservatives and liberals will do their reforms in these circumstances of failing libertarian ideology. They like to criticize social-democratic governments for their "economic mistakes". But looking back, a more orthodox implementation of liberal reforms would had probably resulted in sharper "overheating".
Were socialdemocrats failed is actually in their protection of "common men" interests. The "LEO LT"
project (of a new nuclear plant in Ignalina) greatly exemplified the "pragmatic" orientation towards business interests instead. Persistent success of populist parties manifests significant "request" of genuine socialdemocratic policies, I think. But LSDP does not seem to take its social-democratic mission seriously. Instead, it likes to follow money and demonstrate rather patrimonial governing and deal-breaking.
Social-liberals and the Peasant Popular Union are dropping out of the populist rotation. Their leaders Paulauskas and Prunskienė did not even get into this Seimas. The purpose of populist parties will be more clear after next year's local elections.