Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.

Wednesday Open Thread

by afew Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 11:24:09 AM EST

Another day, another OT


Display:
How DOOMed are we today?
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 11:27:39 AM EST



Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 11:45:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Very well placed.

Question:  When is ET going to start producing its own pieces for YOUTUBE?

They tried to assimilate me. They failed.

by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 11:55:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If the actors did this skit with no clothes on, could we call this doom porn?

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 03:23:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What's happened to the formatting - are we shrinking - are we doomed ? !!!

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 11:46:46 AM EST
Don't know. Doom is likely.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 01:50:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I can quick review the new Bond, Quantum of Solace, if anyone is interested. I saw the pressi this afternoon. No plot details - not that it'll give anything away, the main plot can be written on the back of an envelope. The plot is only crucial in the way that it relates to what has gone before...

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 12:10:00 PM EST
ummm - OK, go on then :-)

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 12:14:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'll try to slip in some sweeping generalizations for you to chomp on ;-)

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 12:39:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I promise to be non-judgmental - I'll leave that to you :-) It got 76% positive reviews in Rotten Tomatoes - but even the positive ones don't exactly rave:


A cracking action film, but nothing more. The emotional power, intelligence and sheer stylishness of Casino Royale has been lost amidst the noisy blur of sub-Bourne action sequences.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/entertainment/7696714.stm

I like the Bourne films - Bond films are now trying to emulate them.

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.

by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 01:21:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
From what I hear, it's more action-packed and less plot...

Sigh. I just hope the Craig series won't be a Brosnan-repeat, which began promising with "Goldeneye" and then sank into abysmal forgetfulness.

Also I wonder if Craig (and the script) manages to continue the picture of Bond as painted in "Casino Royale" - I may get shouted at for this, but Craig embodies Bond top-notch IMO, similar to Connery in the first Bond movies - aristocratic, cynical, harsh.

by Nomad on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 12:32:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The trailer looked good.
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 12:52:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The books are very different to the films - much less campy and panto-ish, much more nuanced.

If Craig-era Bond captures the mood of the books, that would be worth seeing. I haven't seen Casino Royale yet, so I should probably do that before seeing this.

I have a biography of Fleming somewhere - he was a ranking officer in the Royal Navy, and seems to have had some unusual commissions, so Bond may not be total fiction. ;)

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 05:15:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The temperatures have really dropped here. It's been the coldest day since last winter I think, proper bitter weather.
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 12:16:11 PM EST
Yup. We had sleet and snow here, and the weather is demonstrating just how much we need to get the front door double glazed.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 12:18:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I had to scrape some thickish ice off my windscreen this morning. I am never in the best of humour AM, hacking at glass just adds to my impatience ;-)

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 01:28:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Same here. The snow is quite low on the mountains, and I expect the first frost tonight, so have trundled in all I can from the garden. Last of the summer/autumn veg.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 01:53:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Tuesday and Wednesday were the first frosts in the Ozarks.  No hard frost as yet, only a brief dip into the high '2osF just before dawn.  Slept through it both days. Today the high was back up near 70F and I got some work done on my concrete forms.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 06:02:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is good news - "stupid boys":

Jonathan Ross and Russell Brand are to be suspended and all their shows taken off air until the BBC has investigated their prank calls made on Radio 2.

It follows a series of calls made by the pair to actor Andrew Sachs on Brand's Saturday night programme.

The actor, 78, said he would not be reporting the matter to police.

Meanwhile, Brand has told reporters: "It would be silly of me to speak without thinking because that's caused all this trouble in the first place."

He added he was sorry he upset Sachs, famous for his part in Fawlty Towers, over comments made about the actor's granddaughter.

...
During the calls, Ross swore and said Brand had slept with Sachs' granddaughter.

More than 18,000 people have complained to the BBC while watchdog Ofcom has launched its own investigation.

...
Meanwhile, Ms Baillie, 23, told the Sun the pair should "pay for what they've done with their jobs".

She said her grandfather was "really upset and says he wants the whole situation to end".

"What's funny about humiliating a lovely old man who has never harmed anyone in his life?" she added.

She said Brand and Ross were "beyond contempt".

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/entertainment/7696714.stm



Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 12:23:08 PM EST
I think this has al gone a bit far now I've had a chance to look into it.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 07:40:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Can someone explain to me why Gordo had to get involved?

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Oct 30th, 2008 at 03:12:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Because he's a headlinechaser who likes to look as if his Government is responsive to the wishes and desires of the common folk, especially when it isnt going to cost any cash.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu Oct 30th, 2008 at 04:25:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Doom not, but a pied a terre in Breman found. Glass roof, shamanic things all round, private walled garten, needs a new cookspace but nice table for eight.  Wish me luck.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 01:18:24 PM EST


You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 01:24:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
 "private walled garden" - envy that - but not in BrEmen (?) this time of year :-)

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 01:25:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Good news, searching for a roof is always a task.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 01:43:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Merde!
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 01:56:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Congratulations! I think that calls for a pils (unless you've changed a lot more than your city :-)

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 03:25:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Craig's Bond and Forsters' movie are, imo, the best combination ever in the Bond series. QOS is part of a trilogy that began with Casino Royale and is thus ACT II in the standard structured conflict drama - the context has been established with Casino, QOC sets up the dilemmas for all the characters with whom we identify, the third as yet unknown movie will play out the 3rd act conflicts to an audience acceptable resolution.

Craig is believable in an unbelievable role. Most of the acting is good.

I've never been a fan, but the Bonds are always interesting as mainstream zeitgeist metrics of cinema technology, stunts, sex and humour. This Bond puts sex to one side, replacing with with a kind of lost love carried over from act one. The humour is there, but it is less imposed than before and more nuanced. You need to pay attention, because the humour, like everything else, is not signaled in advance. Stunts are here in plenty, and very well choreographed they are, strung like pearls along a simple plot thread. The plot is how Bond, as usual, takes on an organization (in this case, an publicly green corporation) bent on `market' domination, crashes through a variety of locations killing a lot of blue meanies, and is tested for loyalty by everyone - including M.

There's hardly any CGI, and all the gadgets are believable - with a short leap of faith. The movie is well photographed by a director-chosen cameraman, but not stylized. The most interesting part for me was the editing.

Forster takes fragmented editing to a cubist/impressionist high. He had his own edit crew with him and continues editing ideas that he has explored in earlier movies. These kinetic cutting methods were also used by Paul Greengrass in United 93 and the Bourne Ultimatum. All the action sequences are largely created by details, with only short establishing shots. What happens is `broken up, analysed and reassembled' from multiple points of view. Even though time is not tampered with, the reassembly has more to do with external space i.e. where are `you' in all this?

The impressionistic part is that the details you need to know where you are, are rarely centre frame: they are glimpsed, seen at the last moment, almost throwaway. But miss them and you can get giddy. It forces you to pay attention - forces you to the edge of your seat. So yes - it is exciting ;-)

A lot of these details were surely very hard to set up. There's a feeling of improvisation in the action that hasn't been part of Bond before. Multiple cameras are needed. The same stunts must have been done many times to cover all the action. And the director can never be sure what has been captured at the time of shooting.

I don't think I've given anything away that will spoil your enjoyment. I'd be interested to know what you think when you've seen it.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 01:24:24 PM EST
OK I'll be judgmental anyway - impressive for a quick review - but I still think I'll give it a miss :-)

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 02:19:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is an amusing piss-take - like British advertising:



Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.

by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 02:29:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sven Triloqvist:
QOS is part of a trilogy that began with Casino Royale and is thus ACT II in the standard structured conflict drama - the context has been established with Casino, QOC sets up the dilemmas for all the characters with whom we identify, the third as yet unknown movie will play out the 3rd act conflicts to an audience acceptable resolution.

Hey, didn't even know that.

So eye-candy and thrill-ride, suits me fine. The Batman managed the same thing.

Lack of CGI: good. That struck me with Casino Royale - toning down the CGI improved the story and the suspense. I mean, because of Casino Royale, there's a new world-record of a car doing barrel-rolls... Sure, not the most cerebral of records, but still...

Should I watch the Bourne movies? I never have done...

Great stuff. I'll try to pitch in my take - whenever I get a chance to see it... Which might be mid-December...

by Nomad on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 02:53:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Should I watch the Bourne movies? I never have done...

Yes:

Bourne Supremacy:


It is a spy film for adults and it avoids over the top pyrotechnics and jokey one-liners, and instead delivers a mature, intelligent thriller.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/bourne_supremacy/

Paul Greengrass, director:


That's the most important thing for me, that they entertain people, but I really admire the franchise because right in the mainstream of the franchise bit of Hollywood, the great engine that drives this industry, you've got a franchise that's smart and good and very very contemporary about contemporary themes with a progressive character and he's a character with heart and soul.  He's not a character about the clothes he wears and `the Prada this'. He's not about bikinis coming out of the water. He's not about surface; he's about core and authenticity.  He's a moral character.  It's not about gadgets and it's not about CGI.  He's the real deal, and he kicks ass.  That's what I love about him, so the idea of this franchise taking its place alongside the other great franchises, I love all those movies, I'm not knocking them.  But here is this really strong, contemporary modern character and a real force for good and smart and cool in a franchise world, I'm very proud of it.  I'm very proud of Universal letting us do it that way because, believe me, it takes balls when you are spending the amount of money that these films cost.

To let us do it in the way we do, which is, I used to say, this is the first $100 million student movie.  It's a laugh, but it's the truth though.  You make it a bit like that.  A Bourne movie isn't an airline meal.  A lot of these things are.  It's not all pre-packed.  You find it as you go.  That's fun for us, but if you are a studio you've got to have real trust and conviction to back that.  Nobody in the two films has once said `no'.

http://www.getfrank.co.nz/paul-greengrass-director-of-the-bourne-ultimatum/



Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 03:12:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I saw Casino Royale, but had mixed impressions -- less for the actor than the script; it seemed the movie is over at one point and then there was an uncertain continuation. (Oh, and I couldn't fail to notice how they filmed "Montenegro" in the Czech Republic -- totally different landscape, and, er, trains.)

I have a soft spot for Hollywood thrillers with a European setting -- Ronin, The Train, Frantic -- and at least the first Bourne movie is highly recommended.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 03:26:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I liked the second Bourne movie, too. And there are trains in that one, too.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 03:28:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They are in all three of them :-)

The one thing I disliked strongly in the second was that they killed off Lola (I mean the one who runs :-) ).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 03:44:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I watched the third one for the first time with my Dad this weekend. I really enjoyed it. I'll have to get hold of the other two.

I took this photo for you btw.

Photobucket

by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 05:48:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Looking SSW.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 06:34:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Photo with same building visible.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 06:36:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Photobucket
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 06:48:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Was that preserved car BTW on permanent display, or part of a nostalgic train that stopped in Siena?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Oct 30th, 2008 at 05:09:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I only saw it when I was on my train so I didn't have chance to walk up and look properly.  I suspect it was stopping there and was not on permanent display but don't take my word for it.
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Thu Oct 30th, 2008 at 03:35:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Always impressive!  
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 06:50:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I thoroughly enjoyed that one. And I wish they had done a better script on Ocean's Twelve...

But you should be a little more forgiving on this train thing... :) It's relatively good promotion, considering. (If it still existed I reeeeeeeally would've liked taking the Orient Express, the original route.)

I'll try out Bourne whenever I may be offered the chance...

by Nomad on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 04:38:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It wasn't just the brand-new Czech Pendolinos and such, but the lush green continental vegetation on low mountains. Montenegro:



*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 05:03:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is that beautiful, or what?

They tried to assimilate me. They failed.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 05:04:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sloppy film geography tends to break a movie's spell on me. A frequent one: WWII movies that have the Germany-Switzerland border from the North as a high mountain pass (I wonder if Fran, who lives near the real border, noticed this as a trend too).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 05:17:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I really really want to see this movie - because Daniel Craig is so crazy hot.  

Also, because I want to learn what the hell "quantum of solace" actually means.

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.

by poemless on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 02:56:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
LOL. Female opinions on Craig are highly polarised -- Iknow female Bond fans who quitted being Bond fans because of Craig :-)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 03:15:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I was not really a Bond fan until Craig, with this exception of Pierce Brosnan, but that was only because I entertain the possibility that we may be related.  I steered clear of Bond mostly out of feminist disgust.

I like the Craig character.  I know he's not the most suave of the Bonds (my mother favored Sean Connery).  But the combo of the moodiness and those shoulders - swoon...

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.

by poemless on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 04:23:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
To see the real Brosnan, you must see Matador

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 05:24:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
First sighting in the Long Good Friday where he's in what must be one of the best endings in film...

..."the Mafia? I've shit 'em..."

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 09:00:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Now I must see that movie... I once saw its ending, just this part you posted. All I realised was that Bob Hoskins is a great actor...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Oct 30th, 2008 at 05:35:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I first noticed Bob Hoskins in Felicia's Journey.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Oct 30th, 2008 at 07:15:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Craig certainly has some putinesque qualities that might appeal to you ;-)

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 03:16:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's downright eerie, isn't it?!

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
by poemless on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 04:12:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I should point out that he only gets his togs off once in the movie...

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 05:22:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]


"In a sense, I think it was a good move to use an original title from Ian Fleming." Below is an excerpt from the short story Quantum of Solace from Ian Fleming's For Your Eyes Only.

"I've seen flagrant infidelities patched up, I've seen crimes and even murder foreign by the other party, let alone bankruptcy and other forms of social crime. Incurable disease, blindness, disaster - all of these can be overcome. But never the death of common humanity in one of the partners. I've thought about this and I've invented a rather high-sounding title for this basic factor in human relations. I have called it the law of the Quantum of Solace.

Bond said, "That's a splendid name for it. It's certainly impressive enough. And of course I see what you mean. I should say you're absolutely right. Quantum of Solace - the amount of comfort. Yes, I suppose you can say that all love and friendship is based in the end on that. Human beings are very insecure. When the other person not only makes you feel insecure but actually seems to want to destroy you, it's obviously the end. The Quantum of Solace stands at zero. You've got to get away to save yourself."

http://www.universalexports.net/Movies/quantumofsolace-defined.shtml



Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 03:17:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm still going to see it.  You can't stop me.

No one give away anything else, please.

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.

by poemless on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 04:12:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Now you can concentrate on his looks, not what is said - not that I think there will be any such literary exchanges in the film :-) - are there Sven ?

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 04:22:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There are exchanges of all kinds - including gunfire, but the only literary exchanges are between the character of Bond, and Fleming. M has some good lines though.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 05:27:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Bah.  I had whichever Bond film it was ruined for me by my friend continually jumping back to the bit where he's on the beach in skimpy shorts.
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 05:40:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Paris For President

'Smarter than you'd expect' lyrics take a few digs at McCain/Palin. If she could sing, it would be helpful. But at least there's some irony being bandied about.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 01:36:00 PM EST
I heard the best question ever during a radio talk-show this morning. The speaker prefaced it with the observation: Taxes aren't so bad. I don't like paying them.

What do my taxes pay for?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 01:45:46 PM EST
On holiday right now, with limited phone and Internet access, which is good to get away from the post-fire home but not so good to deal with the aftermath (organising the clean up, dealing with the insurance), not to mention blogging, plain email  or following the meltdown at work.

It's getting cold over here (we might have snow tomorrow), which makes the open-air swimming pool and water rides oddly more enjoyable. The kids ate having a great time, and I guess this is good for the parents too, even as we deal with the logistics of it all.

I'm collecting articles or links for posts, in the meantime...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 01:52:16 PM EST

Relax Jerome - have a good holiday - maybe even see a Bond film :-)

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 01:59:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
City Wire: Oil supply is falling 9.1% a year, uh oh (29 October 2008)
The FT has an astonishing lead today, a leak of the International Energy Agency's latest report on World Energy Output.

The paper has been slipped a draft and it apparently shows that without the oil companies pumping loads more cash into exploration - and fast - output of oil is going to decline at 9.1% a year.

So much for a downturn in the oil price. The fear is of course that the credit crunch will lead oil majors to delay decisions about investment just as big established fields, such as our own North Sea, are in terminal decline (although I suppose to be pedantic oil fields are always in terminal decline but you know what I mean).

Of course, the IEA is now claiming that the leaked document is "misleading".

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 02:10:41 PM EST
ha, I was wondering why oil was up so much today.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 02:36:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How much is "so much"?

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 02:42:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
8%

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 02:43:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Bloomberg claims the rise was on speculation that demand will rise with the solution of the credit crisis.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 02:48:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
DoDo:
solution of the credit crisis.

Solution...??!!

What planet are these people on?

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 03:16:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The same one as us. Unfortunately.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 04:22:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
[IEA's Crystal Ball of Doom™ Technology]
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 02:38:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
[Great Crystal Balls of DoomTM !!!]
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 03:40:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not misleading I think.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 03:17:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Rates down to 1% at the Fed.

B-B-B-Benny and the Inkjets!

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!

[Drew's WHEEEEE™ Technology]

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 02:55:20 PM EST
Sharing the pain in a downturn | Pain all round, please | The Economist
The importance of fairness in an economic downturn

EQUALITY means very different things to different people. Britons, for their part, are less convinced that folk should be similarly prosperous than that they should have an equal shot at success. The government shifts money around a bit by taxing and redistributing it (less than in the Nordic countries, more than in America), but the big goal is to make sure that anyone who works hard can get ahead.

I'm not convinced that the article is very coherent, but there's a nice graph:

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 04:26:19 PM EST
Metatone: I'm not convinced that the article is very coherent, but there's a nice graph...

Might that graph go a long way to answering this question?

Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.

by marco on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 09:35:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Metatone: I'm not convinced that the article is very coherent, but there's a nice graph...

With respect to the graph on the right, the conservative USAn response of course is: The U.S. has the highest median income, as nicely shown in that graph.  Clearly the middle classes do best in our country.  They have nothing to complain about.  On the contrary, they should be grateful to be living in the U.S.

Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.

by marco on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 10:48:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Probably not if you calculate it "after taxes and social transfers". In most European countries a hospital stay doesn't bankrupt you.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Oct 30th, 2008 at 03:10:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The graph does say "at purchasing power parity". How do we get the OECD to include the cost of a hospital stay in this calculation?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Thu Oct 30th, 2008 at 04:45:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
As for the graph on the left, if we take restricted range into consideration, isn't it to be expected that countries with less variation in income (i.e. with lower income inequality) should generally have lower correlation between father's and son's incomes?

If so, doesn't it make sense only to compare father/son income correlation between countries that have roughly the same Gini coefficient (e.g. Britain vs. Spain, Italy vs. the USA, France vs. Germany, etc.)?

Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.

by marco on Thu Oct 30th, 2008 at 12:15:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If you wanted to do things "properly"  you would
  1. plot income on a logarithmic scale in the right-hand chart for reasons explained here for a very similar chart.
  2. use a logit transformation on both axes of the left-hand chart to push the ends of the "restricted range" to infinity.


A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Oct 30th, 2008 at 03:08:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Poll Pr0n from the Concern News Network:

CO: Obama 53 - McCain 45
VA: Obama 53 - McCain 44
FL: Obama 51 - McCain 47
GA: McCain 52 - Obama 47
MO: McCain 50 - Obama 48

Only ones with any movement beyond a point a point are Colorado (+8 vs last week's +4) and Georgia (-5 vs last week's -8).

My guess is the national polls will be ticking up a bit tomorrow, but who knows?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 04:35:27 PM EST
Could you explain what happened along the Canadian border? (Montana, Dakotas swing to tie)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 05:12:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nobody quite knows what's going on there.  We've had only two polls out of Montana.  One shows McCain up 4, the other Obama up for, I believe.

North Dakota is anybody's guess.  Every poll has had Obama either ahead or tied.

I'm inclined to give McCain the edge in both, in a similar way to Georgia, but none are out of the realm of possibility.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 05:56:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe AZ really is in play.  McCain has added it to his robocall campaign, according to TPM.

AT, you're from New Mexico, so you'll know: What are the odds in AZ?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 05:58:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
AZ is in flux.  

There has been an influx of young people that could help counter the Old Folks (the Senile Citizens as my 98 year old father-in-law says) communities.  

Latinos and the First Nations will go heavily Obama.  There's been an influx of younger and educated people over the last 10 years that has been steadily turning the state Blue-ish.  These groups should go heavily Obama and Democrat.

But I note Kyl (GOP, dimwit) was re-elected in '06 handily.  

Based on the recent polling I give odds of 6:5 for McCain.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 09:05:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Bible Spice has really stepped in it this evening, saying that she would be interested in leading the GOP after losing Tuesday.

A GOP operative was "speechless," and the McCain campaign is, um, let's say less than thrilled.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 06:12:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Half-Baked Alaskan keeps on giving.

A news blow-out featuring this latest episode in her limitless ambition and self-confidence would be very timely.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 06:27:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This would be really nice as a finally kick in the face to the McCain campaign before we go into the final weekend.

Nice timing too, given that Obama's network infomercial thingy is on tonight.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 06:34:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Do you think she'd got a chance to get the nomination in 2008 if the economy really tanks during Obama's Presidency?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 06:36:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In 2008? Probably not. :)

2012 - depends if the Rs reorganise. As I said - I can imagine a much-weakened business sector reaching an understanding with the theocons, because some power is better than no power. And the paleocons would love her, because she practically promises war.

But the problem is - she's such an ass. She's a political barrel scraping, and even if someone was leading the theocons in a crusade against Socialist Black Dude, it wouldn't necessarily be her.

Besides - criminal investigations are pending.

I think her stock is about to crash. Her VP run has been an entertaining delusion, but she's not enough of a heavyweight to make it stick without unified support. And the fact is, she helped lose it for McCain. That's not going to make her popular with the serious party faithful, who aren't as hypnotised by the winks and the expensive hemline as her fans are.

I'd be more worried that longer term she'll be the figurehead of a new evangelical media corpse - something to replace Fox when Rupe meets his horned maker. With that to rally the base, she could have a hope two or three cycles from now.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 07:28:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
She's not very well positioned anyway.  The Newsweek poll asked Reps about their preferences, and Palin was only running at about 20%, behind both Mittens and the Huckster.

I've little doubt she'll run in 2012 if they lose, but I can't see her getting the nomination, let alone beating a possible President Obama.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 08:43:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Also - who would she pick as VP? First dude? One of the kids?

A rock?

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Oct 30th, 2008 at 02:20:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
She could run on "God is my co-pilot".

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Oct 30th, 2008 at 03:16:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The  12th Amendment:
The Electors shall meet in their respective states, and vote by ballot for President and Vice-President, one of whom, at least, shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves;
would make it very interesting in the case of a close election...
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Thu Oct 30th, 2008 at 04:51:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Wait:

one of whom, at least, shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves

You can't be president if you live in the same state as...yourself?

That seems a very clumsily-written sentence.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Oct 30th, 2008 at 12:32:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Methinks plural makes it obvious that the electors are meant.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Oct 30th, 2008 at 02:17:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If the republican party fractured I wouldn't mind her heading up the fundie party. It would decrease the odds of a nuclear apocalypse brought on by a rabidly angry American public voting in a charismatic psychopath after years of absolute and relative declines in living standards over the next few decades.

In that scenario I see consecutive wins for a newly redistributive based democratic party winning out by small margins over the fundie party with the then marginalized business wing of the old republican party siphoning off just enough votes from the fundie party to hand victory to the democrats.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 06:36:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Think of it this way: Now we have two Barbies!  Caribou Barbie and Backstabber Barbie!

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 06:38:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Don't forget the Maverick Barbie, Trailer Trash Barbie, and Dumb-as-a-Brick Barbie!!!

Collect the series!


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 09:07:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They've already done Trailer-Trash Barbie in a parody.  Pregnant ("again"), chainsmoking, walking with a shopping cart and four or five kids through the grocery store with a case of Budweiser.  Pretty funny.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 10:05:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah, here it is:



Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 10:08:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Caribou Barbie may also be referred to hereafter as Blunder Woman.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 06:58:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Black folks continue to kick ass in Jawjuh, hanging right above 35%.  Rise up!

35% of Floridians have already voted.  Dems are widening their advantage, now 45% Dem vs 39% Rep when counting early voting (in-person) plus absentee ballots.

Things are still roaring in NC.  It's not the 2-to-1 advantage it once was, but it's pretty damned close to that still.  I'm guessing they're near 40% of the 2004 vote already.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 07:02:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As part of that, we may see state polls start to narrow as the pollsters find it harder to locate "likely voters" who haven't already voted.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 09:09:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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