Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.

Monday Open Thread

by In Wales Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 11:56:22 AM EST

Better late than never...


Display:
Any elections coming up anywhere?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:01:14 PM EST
I hear the UK has some coming up.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:03:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There is always a by-election on somewhere.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:04:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
True, but hopefully not for a while.  Personally, I'm hoping the Tories go all Democratic on us, screw up royally, and leave us with a hung Parliament.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:05:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Congrats on your predictions brelow, Drew.  They are very accurate.  But doesn't obama need to reach 60% to prevent senate fili- unhh, fibrilations?  Do your stats take into account the hours-long poll taxes?  

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:19:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, we don't know if my predictions are even close to accurate, but thanks.

Barring a miracle, Obama won't get a filibuster-proof Senate.  At least not on paper.  He may throw a good-enough scare into the Reps to pull the likes of Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, etc, over on key votes.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:58:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And everyone in Washington will breathe a huge sigh of relief that there's no need to get too overtly challenging and progressive, and that Repub antics will remain a reliable excuse for not pushing further to the left.

Even if they got the magic sixty there would be excuses made about Blue Dogs or moon phases or whatever else they could pin the tail on.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:21:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not too terribly concerned about the Blue Dogs, honestly.  They've actually made some good noises.  They may see which way the wind is blowing and get on board.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:25:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Depends how keen the leadership is.

Would this be a good time to mention how many unanswered questions there are about what happens nex?

Iraq
Health Care
Wall St
Pakistan and Afghanistan
Legal proceedings against Bush & Cheney
Media regulation and neutrality
Renewables

Looking back in March and seeing where those stand is going to be revealing.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:32:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Iraq
Health Care
Wall St
Pakistan and Afghanistan
Legal proceedings against Bush & Cheney
Media regulation and neutrality
Renewables

Setting the legal proceedings aside for a moment, since I'm not optimistic on that (although maybe Bush fucked up badly by leaking that protected info about Obama's aunt).

None of those concern me that much, with the possible exception of health care, but I have a fair bit of confidence even on that.  The blogosphere, AARP, the unions, and all of our interest groups will be ready when the health care fight comes.

The renewables, Wall St, and media regulation will likely be fine.  Re-regulation is the dominant position now.  Deregulators are afraid to admit they're deregulators now.  The public has got religion on it.  Obama's media policies are pretty good (net neutrality, fairness doctrine, etc).

The renewables are going to be obvious and largely uncontroversial.  Detroit will bitch and moan, because Detroit is stupid and deserves to die.  But there's a consensus that things have to change on the energy front, and the recession will encourage swifter action.

Iraq will be fine.  They want us out.  We want out.  Shake hands, part ways.

I kind of think bin Laden is dead, honestly.  Everybody in DC (except McCain) knows we need to get out of Afghanistan, but nobody wants to admit to it.  I'm sure we'll be either out or on our way out within four years.  Getting a few high-profile al-Qaeda leaders and a show of stability in Afghanistan would be enough cover.  But file Afghanistan and Pakistan under "Who knows?" for now.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 03:55:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I keep finding articles like this pumping Larry Summers for the Treasury post.

Drew are you hearing about anyone else?

I'd prefer Paul Krugman but I don't think he would take the job.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 04:12:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not really Krugman's thing.  Krugman's an international trade guy.  I've no idea if Summers is being seriously considered or if it's just chatter from the Villagers looking for a familiar face.  I'm not utterly opposed to him, but not wild about him either.  He's made some good noises on fighting wage stagnation and income inequality in the next administration.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 04:16:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Also, Krugman's probably pulling down a half-mil to a mil every year with his Princeton salary, NYT salary and book sales.  Don't imagine he wants to go to Treasury for a fifth of the money for four or eight years.

Maybe Stiglitz, but he says he doesn't want to go back to DC, and I'd envision him more as chair of Economic Advisers.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 04:18:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Get Jamie Galbraith :-)

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 04:19:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Or Galbraith.  Yes, that's a possibility.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 04:31:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Biggest problem is his lack of Treasury experience that would be nice or needed to fight the Bush-Clinton-Bush bureaucracy.

On the other hand, it would drive the GOP gonzo crazy.  And that is always a good thing to do.

What is needed is a Finance-Type more than an economist.  Don't know any that fit the bill.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 04:38:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A lefty finance type?

I don't know. How about Bloomberg?

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 04:40:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
H'mmmmmmmmmm.

Interesting idea.

Have to look and see when he's going to be looking for a job.  The NYC mayor is term-limited, IIRC.

Problem is he is an outsider that would be coming in to a well organized, and tight, team that's been together for 2 years.  Unless they've had discussions already ... I don't see it.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 05:02:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So James Rubin again? Gah. More Goldman Sachs.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 05:16:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh god!  

No.  No!  NO!

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 05:17:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
he NYC mayor is term-limited, IIRC

Not any more.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Thu Nov 6th, 2008 at 05:39:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Also, for the record, Blue Dogs are more an issue in the House than the Senate, but we're going to have such a big majority that it likely won't matter what they do.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:30:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What about the proposal (on electoral-vote.com, I think) to offer one of them a cabinet seat? (in the interest of bipartinsanship, of course. Not in order to flip the seat to the Democrats...)
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 04:11:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Glenrothes on Thursday is the next one.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:16:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And due to excellent pr campaign promoting The Gord's alleged performance on the economy it won't be the disaster it ought to be.

Especially poignant given that Alex Salmond (leader of the SNP, Labour's main challengers in that seat) made such a thing about the Celtic band of prosperity that turned into a bit of a dud after the Irish and Icelandic (celtic ?) economies imploded.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:21:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Irish economy still looks as if it's going to do better than the British one, so Salmond should still be ahead.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:25:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
there are islands in the Pacific that will hve more viable economies than the UK in a year's time.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:26:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There is that.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:27:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And they'll have better weather too.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:22:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
for a few years, then their weather will be Tidal, (but they'll still have a better economy than the UK)

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:34:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Have we missed the boat for the Tropical Tribune?
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:39:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Icelanders have a Viking heritage.  

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:36:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Like a good deal of Ireland and Scotland...
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:56:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And a goodly Irish, circa 900 CE, influence as well.

It has been suggested the development of the strong Icelandic literary tradition came from those Norse who immigrated to Iceland from Ireland.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 03:10:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
and a good part of north east of England

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 05:10:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Elections for mayor of Jerusalem on Nov 11. I've posted a bit on this elsewhere, but it's worth looking at, if only to put things in perspective in any other election where you think there's no one worth voting for. The choices in Jerusalem are a far-right secularist, a religious fundamentalist (but maybe moderate with respect to the Arabs), and a Russian billionare who actually seems to have been campaigning among the Arabs, but isn't really given much of a chance. You can't even talk of the lesser evil; it's more a matter of different types of evil.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 04:10:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I may or may not revise this a bit tomorrow morning.  There's a lot of stuff that could go one way or another, and, while Obama seems to have some serious momentum, it could just be statistical noise.

Popular Vote:

Obama 53.5
McCain 45.7
Other .8%

Electoral College:

Obama 379
McCain 159

Obama gets the Kerry states, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Indiana, and Georgia.  Definitely a gut feeling rather than pure math on Indiana and Georgia.

Comes up a little short in Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, and Arizona.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:14:30 PM EST
When do we need to open the US election open thread? What's the earliest that there will be anything to talk about?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:18:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They were talking on the BBC about states like Virginia declaring midnight london time.

I'll be around till tiredness and alcohol claim me. I won't be making an effort to stay up cos there'll be more to see in the morning here.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:24:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is there a news black-out during voting? I can't recall. I seem to remember poll antics providing adequate entertainment last time around.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:26:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
not as far as I know. Tho' entertainment value will be gained from watching Justin "I back Mitt romney" Webb's impartial BBC head blow off when a filthy socialst liberal wins the presidency.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:28:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's been all McCain all the time on BBC web news. Words like 'knife edge' and 'battle ground' abound.

Buried half way down in one of the less obvious features is the fact that the black guy is polling ahead nationally and in all of the states that matter, and that - as a passing footnopte of no obvious interest or relevance - his last Ohio rallies have been getting audiences of 60-80,000.

Also amusing - no mention of the mass defections from the Repubs to Camp Obama. Or of the Obama ground game.

McCain remains relaxed and confident, obviously - much made of the fact that 'The Mac is Back.'

I hope there's someone standing by with Lysol for those exploding brains at BBC Election HQ.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:14:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hey, McCain had a whopping 1100 in Florida this morning, and I'll bet you only half were reporters. ;)

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:16:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So that's what is going on ...

Had a panic-stricken call from a German friend over the weekend worried McCain was closing within striking distance.

I assuaged his fears.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:29:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No exit polls until polls close, state-by-state.  They'll throw a few numbers around to hint, but we won't be able to derive the predicted outcome until they give us the full set as each state closes.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:50:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Put not thy trust in exit polls.

It's really hard to get a valid population for those things.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:30:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, although given a half-hour to an hour, they'll be fine.  Just have to wait for them to get a beat on the early and Election-Day voters and reweight them properly.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:33:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Been through this before with you!

You just want a butt-load of Statistical data to munch, crunch, slice, and dice.

:-D


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:35:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Strictly speaking, I'm a survey statistician, so...yeah, duh. :D

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:39:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No reason to hide.

"Some of my best friends ..."

LOL


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:57:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Especially when so many people - mostly Dems, by a significant percentage - have voted already.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:41:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's why a lot of pundits think, even if they won't say, that it's already over.  Obama's win the early vote by crushing margins, and that's 25-30% of the electorate.  Meanwhile, he and McCain were basically splitting people who plan to vote tomorrow.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:46:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, they just can't report projections before a certain time.  

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
by poemless on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:52:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There's no blackout, but I think that the major news networks at least don't call any of the states until all have voted. Or at least until California has voted.
by asdf on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 06:19:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
First results are in

Obama wins in earliest vote in tiny Dixville, NH | AP

Barack Obama came up a big winner in the presidential race in Dixville Notch and Hart's Location, N.H., where tradition of having the first Election Day ballots tallied lives on.

Democrat Obama defeated Republican John McCain by a count of 15 to 6 in Dixville Notch, where a loud whoop accompanied the announcement in Tuesday's first minutes. The town of Hart's Location reported 17 votes for Obama, 10 for McCain and two for write-in Ron Paul. Independent Ralph Nader was on both towns' ballots but got no votes.

The last time a Democrat won was in 1968.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 02:51:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The first half of Indiana closes at 6.30PM on East Coast time, I think.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:46:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
6pm ET for Indianapolis.  Don't ask me how I know.  

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
by poemless on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:47:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah, you're right.  Most of it closes at 6.  SW and NW, which I suppose are the two portions in the Central Time Zone, close at 7.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:52:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How'd things go in Indiana this weekend, by the way?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:12:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We mostly just canvassed African American areas to make sure people had voted, if not, when they were going to vote, and gave them all their polling info.

I don't think the Indy people were ready for the swarm of Chicagoans who descended upon their little town.  They were pretty unorganized in the morning; they didn't have enough walk packets ready for all the people there, but by the time we got back from our first outing, everything was running like a well oiled machine.  It was a pretty dramatic improvement.  They also had 44 staging areas in the city, which is impressive because it's a small city.  All these hotel rooms became impromptu staging locations.  In ours, there were a couple of nice old women who cooked up soul food for all the volunteers.  I guess that was their way of helping out.  That was some spicy chicken....

On the way home, we were pulled over for speeding.  LOL.  Also, we were listening to Bruce Springsteen's The Rising.  I have to say, I had one of those moments where you are jerked out of your skin and see how profound things are.  4 complete strangers, who got up before the sun to drive through the heartland to do their civic duty.  Listening to "Into the fire", realizing how historic this election was...  I got goosebumps.

Because we were canvassing Dem voters, there was positive response.  But I will add that just walking down the street, people driving past and out in their yards would see us in our Obama gear and wave, honk, shout out.  And every gas station or restaurant we stopped at, the person behind the counter wanted to talk about the election, and were supporting Obama.

He's not expected to win IN.   But it is now within the realm of possibility.  Worst case scenario, we make the GOP spend their cash defending it and a lot of people who never vote go vote.  Best case, he wins it.

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.

by poemless on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:41:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Also, it was about 80 degrees there.

It's 75 here in ChiTown today.  Crazy!!!

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.

by poemless on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:44:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nothing like the Boss, especially "The Rising," to get ya going for an election. :)

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:48:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, there's been something to talk about for the last 2 years, but if you mean when the numbers come in, I don't think the networks are allowed to go there until after 5pm ET.  That won't stop the blogosphere from starting its collective freak-out before then, however.

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
by poemless on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:51:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, it usually works in this order:

The blogs will have on-location reports from people, rumors will be in abundance, Drudge will leak unweighted exit polls that will all cause either panic or exhilaration, the polls will close, and we'll finally get the true story.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:53:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We will have a nice indication early in the evening.  Indiana will either be called for McCain or Too Close to Call.  

If the latter it's going to be a mildly interesting night.

(I'm practicing my British understatement muscles.)

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:33:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One of the UK bookies is offering a sucker bet of 66/1 for Obama to win every state.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:23:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
that's cruel. It'd be worth a punt on 40 states.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:25:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Any movement in the senate races ? Last I heard was 57 + lieberman.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:30:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes.  Looks like 58 Dems (counting Lieberman), 41 Reps and a runoff in Georgia.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:47:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The AA turn-out in Georgia is staying above 30% of total votes.  This is Good News for Obama as well as the Dem Senate candidate Martin.

A 10/31 Research 2000/Kos poll of the Kentucky race has:

McConnell (R) 47 (46)
Lunsford (D) 44 (42)

Already voted (16% of sample)

McConnell (R) 44
Lunsford (D) 56

which is looking good for Lunsford.  Going into tomorrow with a 12% lead means the GOP has to first dig themselves out of a hole before they can pull ahead.  Also the Dem GOTV operation can concentrate on getting identified Dem voters to the polls by ranking: firm Obama voters to Undecideds.  

They are expecting a 70% turn-out in Kentucky.  

The WSJ poll has Obama leading 51 to 43 (MOE 4%.)

McCain gutted the budget for his GOTV operation to fund  his weekend advertising.  This is going to hurt his voting totals.

I'm expecting GOP national vote totals to revert to '00 levels which was ~50 million.  I'm expecting Dem turn-out to be the same (due to racism) as the Kerry '04 numbers, ~59 million.  These raw vote estimates projects to a 54.13% to 45.87% Obama win; roughly in-line with the WSJ poll.  Giving an Obama win of 8.26%.

This is (barely) within Landslide territory.  

With these numbers it is possible to conclude the Georgia and Kentucky Senate races are definitely in play.  Giving an outside chance the GOP is going to be slaughtered in this election, losing 10 Senate seats and upwards of 35 House seats.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:25:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
McCain's ads seem to have done nothing and may actually have backfired.  Check out the chart at Real Clear Politics.  McCain is stuck at 44 and may actually be moving down.  Obama, in contrast, literally headed almost straight up, now closing in on 52.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:27:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Have the more rightwards leaning media organisations polls slid towards Obama over the last few days, so that they can paint a relatively small Win compared to their poll results as a democrat failure? might that be what is showing up in the polls as McCain failure over the last few days?

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:39:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not sure.  Could be noise, or the undecideds might simply be breaking for Obama.  McCain might be going down, but that's not clear.  Both should go up as they take their share of undecideds, barring a catastrophe on either side.  Beltway CW sez McCain gets a 70/30 split of undecideds.  I thought more like 55/45.  But right now they seem to be going almost 100% for Obama on that RCP chart.  He's just a bit more than half a point away from his largest lead ever.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:42:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
how do they justify that 70/30 split? is it people who were really decided, just didn't want to admit they were voting republican?

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:48:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's people who don't pay attention mostly, and who just aren't comfortable with Obama.  Or so the pundits say.  Chris Matthews had a good rant on them after Obama's infomercial.  "He's got a great family, he's served his community, (etc).  What's it gonna take for these people to vote for a black guy?"

I never bought it, frankly, but as you know I'm not a big believer in the Bradley Effect (which is basically what the pundits were predicting).  I thought the demographics said they'd break with a slight McCain lean, but nothing incredible, and a break for Obama is hardly out of the question.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:51:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The sacrificial sheep's liver had two bumps on it.

Also during the sacrifice birds were seen flying from the East to the West.

What else does one need?


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:02:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Beltway CW sez McCain gets a 70/30 split of undecideds.

No way.  Nonsense.

I'll your 55/45 Obama/McCain projection.  Obama has out hustled McCain in every single state he's entered.  That's what gets the Undecideds.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:53:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The theory is that these are Republicans who are unhappy with their Party, but who can't bring themselves to vote for Obama or pro-lifers who like everything else about Obama.  I think mostly these people will break evenly or stay home.  

Also worth noting: undecideds sometimes, who knows how often, say they are undecided for weird personal reasons: the need for attention, the desire for people to leave them alone, the paranoia that their neighbors will find out.  They may very well know who they are voting for.

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.

by poemless on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:04:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Right.  I was referring to True Undecided voters.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:12:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, no, my call was M55-45O on the undecideds.  Maybe 60/40.  Slight McCain lean.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:22:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In that case:

I don't agree.  

The Dems have too many structural advantages.  Or it could be put the GOP has too many disadvantages.  These  advantages and Obama's GOTV is teh awesome and something the country has never seen.  

Ever.

Could I be wrong?  Of course.  

But the ground operation is critical for getting 'your' Undecideds to the polls as, by definition, these voters are low-information, low-enthusiasm, and loosely attached to the process.  The CW is based on previous elections where the GOP had the superior ground game.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:41:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Heh.  Well, so far, you seem to be more right than me, and I'm certainly not complaining. :)

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:56:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I am older, thus wiser, than you.  (and get the HECK off my lawn!  Darnitall!!!)

Stick with me kid and you'll be wearing horse poop as big as diamonds.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 03:23:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I am older, thus wiser, than you.

Hey, I whomped you on Iowa.  Now if you'll please toss my nerf football back into my yard, that'd be swell. ;)

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 03:29:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ok, here tis ---

Seriously, I've learned a lot from your posts.  Thank you.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 03:44:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is when the 72-hour Undecideds, decide.  They seem to be breaking nationally for Obama but that's a low confidence statement.  

What we can state with confidence is the McCain campaign has a severely broken GOTV operation which means Obama DOES have a major structure advantage in the attempt to carry this group.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:50:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The McCain campaign has been a Charley-Foxtrot from the git-go.  No reason to change a losing strategy, huh?  

Meanwhile, all campaign long Obama has over-preformed Southern polling.  Southerners in general and AAs, in particular, don't like giving their voting intents over the telephone to strangers.  I'd be willing to wage this upturn is in the South.

We could even be looking at SC going Obama.  

At which point my head will explode.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:46:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
At which point my head will explode.

You and Justin Webb. This could get messy.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:10:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Every rational prediction is SC should be one of the early states for McCain.  If, for some weirdness, it does go Obama then we're looking at Mississippi, Arizona, Kentucky, and (god help us) even Texas and Louisiana being in play.  In that scenario Obama could end up in the 400 and MAYBE 500 EV range.

And the muffled sound of ka-boom ripples across the US.

;-)

This is VERY unlikely, BTW.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:26:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The only truly interesting thing in the BBC coverage is the historical map of previous elections.

I had no idea that the South used to be a Dem stronghold, or just how badly Dems have been slaughtered in landslides.

There has never been a true Dem landslide of 400+. Clinton came closest, but there's been nothing to match the total wipe outs inflicted on Dukakis and McGovern.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:35:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Eeehm, Johnson v. Goldwater, 1964? Plus, Roosevelt got over 400 every election he stood.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:41:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I had no idea that the South used to be a Dem stronghold

And Abe Lincoln was a Republican.

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.

by poemless on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:42:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That I knew. :)
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:48:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The South was reliably Dem until President Johnson signed the Civil Rights Act, ending Jim Crow.

That signing was basis of the GOP Southern Strategy.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:47:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
FDR got over 400.  He actually got over 500 in '36.  LBJ got close to 500 in the last hurrah of the New Deal Coalition.  But, yeah, no Dem in the modern era has hit 400.  Clinton came close.  It'd be very tough for Obama, but he's got a shot at it (gotta win all the obvious swing states, plus Georgia and Arizona).

The history of American politics is largely a history of conservative industrialists and capitalists with brief periods of pretty strong liberalism thrown in when things got way off track.

The Dems were the party of slavery and, later, Jim Crow right up to the 1960s.  Johnson said, just before he signed the Civil Rights Act, "We've lost the South for a generation."  It's been three generations, actually.  Might finally start to see some daylight tomorrow (ironically, with a black nominee).  Dems did the right thing and paid for it by losing a lot of for forty years.

But, really, we've been in a conservative swing for forty years.  Prior to Nixon, it was a liberal swing, even under guys like Ike.  Now we seem to be at the very front end of the next realignment, which looks like a liberal one.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 04:12:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nixon was not a part of Movement Conservatism, even if he was an asshole.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 06:12:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I had a half baked idea to throw up an early "election lounge" to shoot the bull before election results start coming in. Since our American side seems to merit that honour, go ahead.

We're sort of an international crowd with a focus on Europe but many of us have lived long times in the States or are dual nationals.

After all the Europeans invented the "salon"- the French actually which gave us the modern French language, clear and concise. And our subversive federalists used to hang around those salons in the old days.

But what is the American equivalent? "Lounge" alliterates well. Drinks are on the house.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:00:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Drinks are on the house.

You may regret that offer. Especially if Crazy Horse and Metatone bulk order the Caol Ila

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:23:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I dunno.  I think you and I could probably drive de Gondi into bankruptcy court.  I seem to recall us putting away a fair number in a fairly short period, and I doubt either of us has seen our tolerance fall.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:31:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'll count on Berlusconi to decriminalize bankruptcy for me.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:59:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Have you any idea how expensive Caol Ila is ? I can drink a lot of beer, but not an amount that would cost close to half a bottle of that.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:13:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not every bottle is expensive... just certain bottles.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:18:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
To be more exact, google finds me a range of $42.99 to $1,037.08 for normal bottle sizes.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:30:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
we'll stick with the median bottles. ;-)

actually have two new Coal Ilas at 24 and 27 yrs, a Port Ellen sherry cask at 25, and a Tomatin distilled in 1976 and bottled a few months ago.  Should help me get past my hand cast depression, when opened.

been really down with my hand so swollen (no, haven't forgot that there's no damage and just soreness in the hip).  reading analysis of 25 years of securitization hasn't helped.  a nice pickup from de Gondi's accounts of student liveliness though.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:48:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Cast? What I miss?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:53:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
a slight idiot-caused accident while skating through the Sat OT.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 03:02:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Found it. Ow!
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 03:03:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Here's a song to cheer you up:

And I'll raise a glass of cheap Weinbrand left over from the WG Party here last Saturday. The Queen Margot being alle.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 03:01:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Vielen Dank, nanne.  Yeah, Laura Nyro!  Seit lange nicht gesehen.  Save the Country!

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 03:08:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ok, I can probably put down $40 of beer without breaking a sweat, but I'd need a good crew to equal the more expensive stuff.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:52:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
On Indiana, Zogby had a poll out today that had McCain up by five. Discounting his polling, the last two polls (ARG, SurveyUSA) have the race tied. If the polling is not off, this one could come within a single digit. Neither candidate has recently polled above 50. You might see a 49/48 result.

In Missouri, Obama is doing better in the polls the few last days, equalising or pulling ahead of McCain. If IN goes Obama, MO should too, and I think by a bigger margin.

There's been less polling in North Dakota, but that polling has been better for Obama.

In Georgia, we're relying on the pollster's models to be flawed (the African American share of the electorate becoming much larger). So you have PPP out there today with a 2 point lead for McCain, which should be bridged, but SurveyUSA shows him ahead by five, which would become a stretch.

P.S. Latest Alaska poll has McCain up by 3 points. Begich up by 7 against Stevens, Berkowitz by 6 against Young.

I'll go with the landslide and give Obama ND, MT and MO as well, for 396 to 142.

If Obama wins Georgia, Martin will also win against Chambliss. So that makes 59 Senate seats. Only 1 upset needed from there.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:53:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If that Zogby poll is from the Internet -- forget it.

Otherwise, the Zogby Polling Model assumes a 2004-like turn-out.  Ain't gonna happen.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:04:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
An Obama win in Alaska and Arizona would be - amusing.

Okay - make that very amusing.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:10:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
make that ROTFLMAO.

But it'll be the fault of the same liberal media that won it for Gore and Kerry.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:16:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Alaska - not just amusing, but very useful... it'd help slow the momentum of Palin into the future.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:19:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I want to see Wyoming for Obama. Now that would make my day.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 04:12:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I was figuring on Indiana or Missouri going to Obama.  It was a coin toss, so I chose Indiana.  Judging by the polls today, that may be stupid.  (shrug)

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:18:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You're obviously not using a model in which the results in neighbouring states influence one another ;-)
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:33:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Neighboring states?  Okay, Iowa is for Obama (Iowans would probably make him King of Everything if given the chance), as well as Illinois, but Arkansas and Kansas?

Indiana, on the other hand, has Illinois, Ohio, Michigan and Kentucky.  Now, granted, Kentucky's as backwards and stupid as it gets, but still....

Meh, you're probably right.  Missouri has Kansas City and St Louis, so it's probably more likely.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 03:00:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The only thing I can think of is that IIRC Obama took longer to move into Missouri. So it is possible that his organisation there is less impressive than that in Indiana.

Otherwise, going by a comparison of Missouri and Indiana on fivethirtyeight, the states are similar in a lot of ways, but MO should be slightly more friendly to the Democrats.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 03:14:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Clare McCaskill country?

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 03:18:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes.

If Obama can re-constitute the McCaskill coalition he's got it.  On the plus side, she was an early supporter (Jan. 2008) of Obama.  Don't know how that is playing-out.

The M & M squad (Marek and Mary) are utterly failing in their task of keeping us informed of current happenings in Missouri.  For some reason they, the slackers, are putting electing Obama as their first priority.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 03:30:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Marek is in Mo?  I thought he was in NYC.

Here are some posts from an acquaintance who has gone to work in Mo.

http://www.prairiestateblue.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4639

http://www.prairiestateblue.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4640

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.

by poemless on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 03:33:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He must have decided NY state was safely on the Obama column. Now, I forget whether we were told why he decided to go to Missouri of all battleground states, but it would be interesting to know.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 03:35:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, I am glad he did!

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
by poemless on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 03:40:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I agree.  

I actually can't speak for Indiana, except for that part that is in Chicagoland.  

But Mo. sounds like they have good ground operation. Anecdotally, it sounds better than the one in IN.  StL has a large African American population.  The rest of Mo is pretty conservative, but it's a perverse kind of conservative.  They have this stubborn independent distrustful streak.  It's difficult to explain.  They're a little unhinged, maybe.  FWIW, my peeps are from Missouri, hardcore Irish Democrats.  My grandfather worked on JFK's campaign.  Mo voted for a dead person when the alternative was John Ashcroft.  Harry S Truman was from Mo.  Mark Twain was from Missouri.  Maryb is from Mo.  I have faith the Show Me state can do the right thing when they put their minds to it.

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.

by poemless on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 03:31:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Martin is polling a little behind Obama, and the Libertarian inthe Senate race is taking enough to keep Shameless and Martin below 50%.

Can't trust SUSA in the South.  Or at least you couldn't all year.  They consistently underestimated Obama's share of black folks as well as turnout among blacks and young whites.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:21:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
For those who can read in German. Unfortunately I do not have the time to translate nore is my English good enough to translate it. it was send to my today by e-mail.

ein Gedicht zur Finanzkrise - 78 Jahre alt

Wenn die Börsenkurse fallen,
regt sich Kummer fast bei allen,
aber manche blühen auf:
Ihr Rezept heißt Leerverkauf.
Keck verhökern diese Knaben
Dinge, die sie gar nicht haben,
treten selbst den Absturz los,
den sie brauchen - echt famos!

Leichter noch bei solchen Taten
tun sie sich mit Derivaten:
Wenn Papier den Wert frisiert,
wird die Wirkung potenziert.

Wenn in Folge Banken krachen,
haben Sparer nichts zu lachen,
und die Hypothek aufs Haus
heißt, Bewohner müssen raus.
Trifft's hingegen große Banken,
kommt die ganze Welt ins Wanken -
auch die Spekulantenbrut
zittert jetzt um Hab und Gut!
Soll man das System gefährden?
Da muss eingeschritten werden:
Der Gewinn, der bleibt privat,
die Verluste kauft der Staat.
Dazu braucht der Staat Kredite,
und das bringt erneut Profite,
hat man doch in jenem Land
die Regierung in der Hand.

Für die Zechen dieser Frechen
hat der Kleine Mann zu blechen
und - das ist das Feine ja -
nicht nur in Amerika!
Und wenn Kurse wieder steigen,
fängt von vorne an der Reigen -
ist halt Umverteilung pur,
stets in eine Richtung nur.
Aber sollten sich die Massen
das mal nimmer bieten lassen,
ist der Ausweg längst bedacht:
Dann wird bisschen Krieg gemacht.

Kurt Tucholsky, 1930, veröffentlicht in "Die Weltbühne"


by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:17:41 PM EST
Ah, good old Tucho. Reads like it was written yesterday.

Quick n dirty:

When the stocks come tumbling down
There's pain and sorrow all around
But there are some who like this better:
This is a job for the short seller.
Off they go all bold and brash
To sell stuff they don't have for cash
And doing so they start the slide
They're banking on - now that's some ride.


The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:17:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Good try.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:17:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We never learn, do we?

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 03:16:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One of the most exciting new American cable news hosts is Rachel Maddow on MSNBC.

There's a longish story about her in the NY magazine online: The Dr. Maddow Show

All that I've been able to see of the show so far, is on Youtube. But it looks very inspiring and fresh. The article in the NY mag fleshes out the person behind the host - and it feels very real.

As one New York acolyte told me, "She is more like one of my friends than anyone else on television." And her ratings have been astounding, especially in the coveted 25-to-54-year-old demographic. Maddow averaged a higher rating with that group than Larry King Live for thirteen of the first 25 nights she was on the air, enabling the network to out-rate CNN in that time slot for the first time. It's an impressive feat, even given the fact that the show started two months before the election when political interest was at a fever pitch.




You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:25:57 PM EST
What I've seen she looks like a great asset for MSBC. However, I thik I'd take Olbermann's rather acid comment that nobody ever noticed when all the channels were filled with conservative commentators.

It was noted that on the various mainstream channels  the commentating guests at the democratic convention this year were half democratic and half republican, but at the republican convention all of the guests were republican.

And of course, half the time on the sunday talk shows the lone democrat on the stacked panel will be some republican-lite blue dog or lieberman.

But MSNBC has two hosts who are not rabidly right wing and suddenly that's a problem for their balanced output.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:42:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
MSNBC is, I assure you, just fine with Olbermann and Rachel.  Their ratings are sky-high.  Keith is beating O'Lielly with some consistently on the key demographic (25-54 years of age).  And Rachel isn't far behind him.

I like Rachel, but her concern-trolling is wearing on me.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:15:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Olbermann and Rachel

More anecdotal evidence for my observation that men are more likely to be referred to by their last name and women by their first name.

What that means, I don't know.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 03:14:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We still are patrilineal societies...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 06:07:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
According to the article it was Olbermann who promoted her. The execs were screaming blue murder privately and initially. But I guess they've changed their tune now.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:16:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As usual at this time of the year, everyFinns's income and taxes for last year are available for all to see. The top 10.000 or so also make it into the media -  There are complete lists published for every municipality, but typically the media are interested in the top 100 or so: like this: Top Finnish Earners

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:37:57 PM EST
Who is Göran Sundholm, and why is my tax rate higher than his? Progressive taxation my ass!

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde
by NordicStorm (m<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:19:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Maricap?
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:22:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Antway, nice to see Sven in the top 200, i won't give his name away, but the next Caol Ila's on him.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 03:21:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sundholm says he's not looking for publicity. In an interview for Yle News he calls himself a product developer and says he is the first Finn with more than 100 patents. That feat Sundholm values higher than all the money.

In 2001 Sundholm sold his 48 % share of the company Marioff för 272 million euros to the American company UTC. Marioff manufactures fire protection systems with a water fog. Sundholm founded the company in 1985.

A true inventor and entrepeneur who built a company himself and deserves the money, at least more than the hedge fund locusts do.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 07:11:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Wow, no privacy issues?

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 03:02:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't say that Finland represents a fully transparent society, but realtively...

Yes, I can find out what my neighbour earns. It rather takes the fun out of  posing as something that you are not. And useful for social cohesion for that reason.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 03:34:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, fortunately the issue of stupidity I blogged about regarding the trans protest against Stonewall has been resolved. The journalist has decided not to push her luck.

The whole debate about this issue has been illuminating and it reveals there are tensions in the community between those who, like myself, are of the binary gender group, ie born as one gender and became  legally the other, and the intersex group who were born to some extent hermaphroditic (400 a year in the UK !!) and have significant issues to deal with such as forced gender assignments and indeterminate gender identity.

Although we are both in the Trans camp we have, to some extent, not  just different agenda but are pulling in different directions. The compromises and understandings we have of each need ot be continually refreshed.

Unfortunately when you're actually arguing about another issue entirely, those differences can result in genuine clashes of interest, or just awful misunderstandings as we approach situations from different directions.

Go, admit it. It's fascinating to read about issues you never knew existed and don't affect you in the slightest.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:17:01 PM EST
I'll admit it. (although as soon you mentionthe two different groups, I can see where there might be differences and problems)

How does the law deal with the two different groups?  are intersex people classified as one or the other at birth? and when they grow up are they allowed to change? and how are their marriage rights dealt with? (and how does their existence affect the legal arguments for gay and trans marriage rights?)

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:32:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
the law only recognises two genders and so you are defined as one or the other. So that suits people like me who now have the legal right to be recognised completely in my acquired gender.

However intersex people suffer cos they are given forced assignments, which includes surgical intervention on young children to make them conform. There is increasing understanding of the intersex condition nowadays and it is more likely that they will wait until the child themself expresses a preference, but forced assignments still occur too frequently.

So they have that burden. However the bigger ongoing  problem for them is that many really don't identify strongly enough in the binary. In their head they're kind of in-between which gives them issues in their legal status. They really don't know how to conform and have days when they're femme and days when they're guy and an awful lot of days when they don't want to shave but dress as a woman etc etc. Consequently they have problems with employment cos they don't fit in.

I confess I really don't know too much about it as I've only ever met a couple and didn't talk to them about it in depth, but the general impression I got was of being genuinely confused, like they didn't fit anywhere. They only really seem comfortable in each other's company cos they're the only ones who remotely understand.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:27:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A repost:



She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:39:25 PM EST
EST is CET -6, GMT -5.

So, at 7 P.M. EST we have 01:00 CET; 00:00 GMT.

Now if Obama wins either Indiana or Florida, he's won the election. If he wins both and also wins Georgia, he's going to get in in a landslide.

So how fast do they count in Georgia?

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:12:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Things can go fairly fast.  Couple of hours, maybe?

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:51:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nate Silver has a timeline up on Newsweek. Excerpt:

What to Watch For | Newsweek Politics: Campaign 2008 | Newsweek.com

6 PM EST. Polls close in portions of Indiana and Kentucky.

Traditionally, these are the first states to get called by the networks, spotting the Republicans a quick 19 points in the Electoral College. This year, however, is liable to be a little bit different. Indiana is far more competitive than usual, and is probably the state with the greatest disparity in ground games: the Obama campaign has 42 field offices open there, whereas McCain neglected the state entirely until recently.

The responsible thing to do would be for the networks to hold off until at least 7 PM to project Indiana, when polls have closed in Gary and the northwestern part of the state just across the border from Chicago--where Obama hopes to rack up huge margins among black and working-class voters. If for some reason the state is called before 7 PM for John McCain, that probably means we're in for a long night. If, on the other hand, the state is called for Obama in the first hour after the polls close, that could indicate that the force of Obama's field operation has been underestimated, and that McCain is in for a catastrophically poor evening. (Speaking of which, Indiana's equivalent on the Senate side of things might in fact be Kentucky, where Mitch McConnell remains the favorite but where he could be vulnerable in the event of an anti-incumbent wave.)


Basically, if Indiana goes Obama, Obama has won.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:52:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]


Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:56:18 PM EST
That's one I like a lot.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 03:29:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
i seem to recall server load being excessive relating to US electoral events in the past.  meaning no ET access (other sites as well.)

Are we doing anything to prevent that, if there's anything to do?

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 03:44:29 PM EST
As I recall, the two worst were Iowa Caucus night and during Migeru's and Drew's statistical analysis of the New Hampshire primary.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 06:11:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, the new Hampshire diary - which is what brought ET down in the most spectacular way - got on digg, which is probably not going to happen this time.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 06:13:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
and we're still camping. Sigh.

They'v done a decent job cleaning up the staircase last week, and have started our apartment today. Everything is in boxes for now, you can still find a thin layer of soot pretty much everywhere.

Carbon combustion is dirty!

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 04:35:14 PM EST
Damn smokers! ;)
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 04:39:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm glad that everything is okay , or at least it will be soon.

But, does this make you think it might be better to have a house where you're in control of the environment ?

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 05:15:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What do you mean by "environment"? And what do you mean by "control"?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 05:48:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If you have a stand alone house, then a fire in the house next door won't affect you. So your susceptibility to such events is entirely under your control.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 06:06:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Except if there's a forest nearby...

And breaking and entering is much more common in a house than on the 5th floor of an apartment building.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:07:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Is it? I would have thought that the numbers more likely trended in the other direction, with B&E in appartments being higher than in Houses.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:15:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe for apartments in general, but for 5th floor apartments with interphone+digicode protection in a wealthy neighborhood (in Paris, this also means quite a few elder people that will check when unknown people get into the apartment of someone who is on vacation)...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:00:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Obama's grandmother died.


"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
by poemless on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 04:42:00 PM EST
That's really sad.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 04:44:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That is really sad.  At least he went to her.  What a bittersweet win this may be.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 04:56:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So that's why he recently took a couple of days off the campaign...

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 04:50:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, he made it clear he had to go see his grandmother, who was very ill.  I'm glad he did that.

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
by poemless on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 04:55:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Anyone watching the live Udo Lindenberg concert/bar hop/hotel party on the Beckmann show rtonight?

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 05:27:57 PM EST
Karl Rove's final prediction:

Obama 338
McCain 200

Same as Tweety's.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 06:48:06 PM EST
Not too shabby:

-Up 1 in Montana
-Up 1 in North Carolina
-Up 1 in Indiana
-Up 1 in Missouri
-Up 4 in Nevada
-Up 6 in Virginia
-Up 10 in Colorado
-Up 17 in New Mexico
-Only down 2 in Georgia

If Obama's ground game is as good as we've been led to believe, these may all go blue tomorrow.  That'd be 393 with North Dakota and Arizona to be decided.  Dare to dream?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 07:17:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Georgia Early Vote turn-out is 60% of 2004 levels.  AA turn-out at 35% of the vote.

Gah-damn

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 07:38:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This one makes my night for tonight.  The Obama campaign is looking for an upset in Georgia.  People are pouring into Atlanta to GOTV.  They've even got a few Brits who flew in to help.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 07:50:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
(Jaw hits floor.)

10,000 volunteers?

175 staging areas???

In a state Obama wasn't supposed to be competitive???????

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 08:01:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I feel good about that.  They saw what I saw.  So maybe I wasn't completely full of shit about Georgia.

Unless they were too.  That's possible.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 08:17:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Kudos to you for sensing it.

I sure didn't.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 08:38:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
From Atlanta's own InsiderAdvantage:

McCain 48
Obama 47

Sez they:

McCain will win Georgia if the African-American turnout is less than 32 percent of the overall vote and if Obama's percentage of the white vote is 26 percent or less. If the turnout for African-Americans is at or above 32 percent or if Obama carries, say, 28 percent of the white vote, then Obama wins. So this will be a nip-and-tuck race. It will not be a 7-point blow out.

That's precisely my math.  Every last digit.  I have Obama coming in at 28% white support with a 31/32% black share.  The Mother of All Upsets.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 09:49:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So, by the way, what's your final prediction?

Mine's probably too high.  But I'll happily take 270.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 08:18:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'll go with 378.

I think the Obama ground game is going to out do the polling.  A good GOTV always does.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 08:42:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
378?  What states?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 09:15:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Kerry States plus Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Georgia, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada, and Missouri.

Which actually works out to 379 now that I tot it up using ARG's calculator.

In the second tier: Indiana, Montana, North Dakota giving 396.

Should things get really intense we might see: Texas, Lousiana, and South Carolina for 447.  And that, methinks, is where Obama tops out.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 10:14:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Arizona in the second tier as well, I assume?

I have Obama topping out at 406.  447, perhaps, if black folks held at a similar pace in "Loozianna" to Georgia, and if Obama took 80% of Latinos.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 10:19:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Think it is going to be "Close but no cigar" in Arizona.  Obama jumped in too late to pull it out.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 12:20:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Your math is the same as mine, except I've got Indiana rather than Missouri.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 10:21:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thought about Indiana.

Finally I decided what with the entrenched GOP, the early closing time, and it did go for Bush by 20 points in '04 I couldn't see it flipping.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 12:28:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And, like nanne, you're probably right.  I recognize the facts point to Missouri rather than Indiana, but, as the great Ronald Reagan once said, "Facts are stupid things." ;)

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:44:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Why aren't the few democrat senate candidates that would get the 60-strong majority bathing in cash as to buy the whole day of yesterday in TV propaganda ?

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 06:00:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Can Brits help ? In things like canvassing and stuff cos I've always had the impression it would be counter-productive.

I could have given time if I thought it was okay, Darcy Burner could have done with a bit of help.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 06:10:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It would be like an American canvassing and stuff in a UK election.  

Could be useful or harmful, depending on the district.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:43:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The 1s must all be MOE-ish, so the chances of a clean sweep aren't good. One or two might be likely, but even with ground game, four is going to be a reach.

What are the margins in FL, OH and PA?

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 07:44:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
2 each in Ohio and Florida.  Their PA poll is right at Nate's estimate (8).

A clean sweep would be very tough.  Doable but very tough.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 07:48:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
When were these polls in the field?

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 07:52:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Over the weekend through yesterday, I believe.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 07:55:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And we've got the game on.

Dixville Notch has spoken

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama emerged victorious in the first election returns of the 2008 presidential race, winning 15 of 21 votes cast in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire.

...

It was the first time since 1968 that the village leaned Democratic in an election.

"Leaned"?  How about "went for?"

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 01:18:10 AM EST
And now Hart's Location has spoken:

Obama 17
McCain 10
Paul 2

Here are the currently known official results of 2008 US Presidential Election:

Obama  32 64%
McCain 16 32%
Paul    2 4%

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 01:35:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's not a lean, it's a barely controlled explosion.

Might as well call it now.

I'm wondering tentatively if there's going to be a reverse Dewey-Truman - the polls get it completely wrong, but in the wrong direction.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 04:02:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What is it about rural white farmers and Obama?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:39:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Obama is from Illinois.  Of course he can connect to rural whites.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 10:44:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Do they do it on purpose, to have republican-leaning places vote first?

I'm thinking of the map you posted the past few days where Indiana was one of the first two states to close the polls, despite not being on the East Coast.

Also, it's interesting that in Europe there's an 'embargo' on announcing election results until all polling stations have closed. Obviously the US is unconcerned about voters being influenced by known partial results.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 05:05:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It might be a side effect of republican-leaning places closing early, to make it harder for poor people with jobs to get to the polls.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 05:17:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
so swing to Obama of 26% taking that from the last election results that wold mean that only Alaska and Alabama were toss ups, and everywhere else would lean crazily for Obama ;-)

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 05:37:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sample size, anyone?

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 05:46:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Spoilsport

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 06:11:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
See also 538.com.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 06:51:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
True but - I don't think anyone seriously expects this to mean a 65% Obama win.

It would be useful to know the previous voting habits of these people and the demographic spread. Even if it's a tiny sample it's still a huge shift.

The anecdotal evidence is that McCain has lost the confidence of his party and ceded a non-trivial demographic spread to Obama. This is one small data point which supports that. There may be good reasons for the shift - maybe the population has changed since 2004 - but it's not just random noise.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:05:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well last election they went like this

The Command Post - 2004 US Presidential Election - Hart's Location a dead heat; Nader a spoiler!

New Hampshire | Hart's Location a dead heat; Nader a spoiler!

Bush won early this morning in a 19-7 landslide in Dixville Notch, NH, which is no surprise given the town's Republican-leaning tendencies.

But in New Hampshire's other early-voting hamlet, Hart's Location, it's a tie! How fitting in this deadlocked election. The tally: Bush 15, Kerry 15, Nader 1.

Hey, look, Ralph Nader cost Kerry the election! :)

So, if you're keeping score at home, with something like 0.01% of the precincts reporting, it's Bush 34, Kerry 22, Nader 1 in the Granite State.

And the Dixville Notch wikipedia page has a list of its poll and primary results back to 1960

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:05:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Alaska will go before Idaho and Utah, and a bunch of other states. It's not completely outside the realm of possibility, as there was a poll yesterday showing Obama down only three points. I wouldn't bet on it, but if the polls underestimated Obama across the board, Alaska would definitely be in play, as would Arizona.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 07:40:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually, McCain may be crashing in Alaska.  There's been only one poll since Stevens's conviction, and it had McCain's lead falling from close to 20 points to only 3, with Stevens virtually assured defeat.

I kind of doubt it, since it's probably just a wacky sample, but you never know.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:41:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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