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The ideology of reform

by Jerome a Paris Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 05:31:40 AM EST

Paul Betts writes a daily eurozone-bashing column in the market pages of the FT (logically called "European View"). It's a good place to go if you like to see the French or the Germans mocked, insulted and demeaned. But it's also a good place to read an unadulterated version of the reform gospels, including when it becomes completely absurd.

Yesterday's column provides a wonderful example, as the author notes the great performance of the German Mittelstand companies, especially on export markets:

They all share something in common - a consistent long-term approach, investing heavily in Germany and looking after their workers. In turn, this has allowed them to rely on workers' goodwill when times are hard. Their big concern is that Berlin's reluctance to engage in more structural economic reform will make employees less co-operative and less reform-minded. A US recession would hit them, but no harder than previous ones. A lack of reform would be more painful and risks damaging the backbone of the German economy.

So, their success comes from looking after their workers. And that's threatened by ... the lack of "reform", ie workers will cooperate less because ... there are no new laws to make it easier to fire them, to reduce their union rights, or to ensure that their bosses are taxed less?

Yes, workers are clamoring for "reform", because otherwise they won't be taken care of by their companies. Damn the reactionary left that stands against the rights of workers!

Oh what strange times we live in...


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The first half of his column was about the rumours that EDF and ACS are preparing a takeover (and subsequent carveup) of Iberdrola (whose shares shot up on the rumours).

He said that utilities are awash in cash and that whenever a takeover target arises they all get really interested in it. What I wasn't able to get form the front-page news story or from the "European View" column was why Iberdrola is suddenly a takeover target. Has anything happened to make Iberdrola more vulnerable? Or is this just the result of Banks' Mergers and Acquisitions departments whispering in the ears of EDF and ACS?

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 06:24:30 AM EST
There are few available targets for take-over, as many are "protected" by their national governments.

The current scheme for Iberdrola would avoid that, with ACS keeping most of the Spanish and renewable assets, and EDF getting the other international assets (starting with Scottish Power).

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 08:16:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But another possibility was that EDF would be interested in Iberdrola's SPanish nuclear power plants, and ACS would keep the renewables (including Scottish Power), if I understood correctly.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 08:21:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
EDF would get a politically palatable few % of the Spanish electricity market. I had not heard about the nuclear assets, and I suppose that this could be interpreted politically in different ways: (i) as a foreign country taking over a sensitive sector (unacceptable), or (ii) as a strong operator helping the country keep its expertise in a vital technology (positive, espeically if there are quid pro quos with access to French markets or to EDF/Areva competence for Spain in the package).

I understand that Scottish power would be split between the (smaller) renewable bit going to ACS/Union Fenosa, and the traditional power generation going to EDF.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 08:28:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
As a Spaniard I would probably like to see some technology transfer involving Spanish companies if Areva/EDF bought our nuclear power plants.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 08:39:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Quite apart from the cognitive dissonance of the account of companies "looking after" workers and reducing workers' share of the pie at the same time thanks to workers' goodwill that will disappear, not because workers' vital interests are at stake, but because the government can't enforce the further reduction of the workers' share of the pie that companies want...

A US recession would hit them, but no harder than previous ones. A lack of reform would be more painful

This looks like the sketch of a narrative we should expect to hear more of. Structural problems with globalising free-trade capitalism? No, no, just a little bitty cyclical recession in the US, that is nothing like as dangerous as a halt to the "reform" process...

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 08:19:41 AM EST
"The current crisis is just cyclical, not systemic" is indeed likely to be an approved party line (ie there should be no questioning of current narratives).

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 08:31:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Quite right.

But some question more narratives than others.

Tim Congdon

was at it again re Northern Rock in the FT today but the lessons he draws are not quite the ones I draw....

Still, he's speaking a truth I've never seen anywhere else in the MSM.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 08:49:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
FT.com: Any 'gift' of public money to Rock is pure myth
The Northern Rock affair has been a reminder of how dismally Britain's institutions can perform if they have poor leadership. In effect, the European Commission has been granted a veto on the future use of lender-of-lastresort facilities by the Bank of England, while the Treasury regards its own expertise as so inadequate that it must pay American investment bankers for guidance and counselling.
Ouch!

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 09:03:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That is indeed an stupid frame for their side.. it is plainly stupid... and it ouwl benice to show it is stupid...

The only thing youc na not say in a narrative is "it was a really sunny night".... you can say "it is really sunny" while outside is night because one can believe that the person perceives the world that way .. or say "it is absolutely dark" when outside is sunny day for the same reason... but you cna not make a person say "it is a sunny night".. because it lacks internal coherence.

this is why this guy is utterly stupid for his side...
It is much more better to make thing up... and say that those companies are going awful.. or that workers are treated without respect and therefore results are so great...

Reality does not matter, internal coherence is everyhting.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 09:34:30 AM EST
You don't understand.

Reform is the right answer. It doesn't matter what the question is.

Because 'reform' means taking money from poor people who don't deserve anything and giving it to rich people who are born deserving everything.

And who can argue with that?

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 12:46:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Absolutely..but this particular narrative of "being helpful to the worker and  need reform" is not good for the cause of the greedy.

a pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 05:02:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One has to register for reading the article. Is this then free forever?
If not, has he said what kind of reform is crucial?
Reform by itself means, changing something, but not what to change how.

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers
by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 09:46:06 PM EST
One of Jerome's main points is that "reform" as used in the mainstream media has a very specific meaning, and implies adherence to neoliberalism.

See this diary, which was published in Le Monde as an OpEd... :

France is not in decline and the last thing it needs is 'reform'

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 10:16:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks for the interesting link.
But if really "liberalizing the labour market, weakening union power and State regulation of business, and reducing taxes" is meant, Paul Betts is quite out of touch with 'neoliberal' econimists and conservatives in Germany.

Liberalizing the labour market just in a moment where a boom starts to destabalize? So the buisinesses have not employed people before, because they were afraid they could not get rid of them in times of crisis and when the crisis comes, the rules are changed?
And of course discrediting conservative politics for years.

Tax cuts are now requested more by left leaning econimists for stabilising demand, when it falters in the US, while Merkel has announced, no tax cuts until the federal budget is balanced - which can take some more years.
The alternative of course would be creating some demand by stopping the fall of overall wages as part of the GDP, but how this can be achieved with weakening union power right now.

But of course Jerome a Paris justifies conservative politics. The income tax in France he quotes is much lower than in UK or the US. The reckless spending of Bush and Blair in the last years, which might have created some short term stimulus, comes at a high price, as the money was borrowed mostly from other countries. The true conservatives are in continental Europe, not in the anglo-saxon countries.
If the US was an anglo-saxon country as the image is, right now the Fed would raise rates, the Gov would increase taxes or cutting spending (with 50% or a trillion$/a military spending it should not be difficult to find something to cut), nobody would even speak about stimulus on credit. While in Europe there is some consistence between talk and action, in the US they usually do the opposite of what they recommend for others.
And, by the way, the per capita growth rate for Germany in a link Jerome a Paris provided the German per capita growth for 2006 and 2007 was understated. I'm curious for 2008, but if German per capita growth will be higher in 08 than the French one, I would think that real conservative policy has done a good job.

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers

by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 06:00:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

But of course Jerome a Paris justifies conservative politics. (...) The true conservatives are in continental Europe, not in the anglo-saxon countries. (...) if German per capita growth will be higher in 08 than the French one, I would think that real conservative policy has done a good job.

Before I react, can you explain what you mean by "conservative"? I think we are in agreement, but I'd rather be sure I understand what you mean.


While in Europe there is some consistence between talk and action, in the US they usually do the opposite of what they recommend for others.

Indeed. That's one of the things I write about all the time.

As a general comment, I am generally more favorable to the "Rhenan" model of capitalism, whether in its French, German or other versions, and a lot of my writing is about how the French and German economies are mostly unfairly criticised in the English language press.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 07:59:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not a long term reader of English language press, but in this case I refer to politics, which even American conservatives are claiming to be conservative.
Low income taxes, a balanced fiscal budget, a sustainable foreign trade balance, low inflation. I think all of this will be better next year, both in F and D, than in the US.
But in Germany there was even fulfilled another conservative rule, namely low income growth. I have seen you have a median income diagram, where there was not so much income growth in the US, but the average income rose quite significant in the US. In Germany the average income stagnated as well quite a bit, while the GDP grew.
Now some people are afraid that if the US has recession, this will hit Germany very strongly due to the high export dependency. If this is true and there is a US recession, then France should do better this year than Germany I think. If Germany can manage a US recession I would be quite convinced, that as well the sluggish income growth in the last decade was not so bad.

Of course conservatism is not only about economics. E.g. religious or at least some philantrophic philosophy is as well part of conservatism. And again, the US conservatives talk all the time about Jesus and abortion and how important the church is, but if one looks to the policy actual done, I can't see much of this talk to transform into substancial politics. In Europe there is always a sense for helping those who can't help themselves, what is part of what distinguishs conservatism of liberalism.

Taken literally conservatism of course means as well no fast change and a certain cautiousness with it. Therefore e.g. climate change or war should be horror for every conservative, as well as completely unregulated "wild" market.

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers

by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 10:09:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This is an interesting comment, because it shows how far the right in many countries (but not Germany) has strayed away from the traditional conservative policies which you describe. The right is, in many places (and, ofcourse, nowhere more in the US), very radical, both on the economic and social fronts.

And the fact is that the political left is now much better at implementing "conservative" (ie reasonable center-right) policies - but it also means that no mainstream political forces are still around to defend traditional leftwing policies.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 03:12:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think regarding the UK you are certaily right. I'm as well not too familiar with French politics, but as far as I know the last 13 years there was a conservative president in France and no radical gov elimination took place.

I would be as well interested what you think about http://www.shadowstats.com/
or would like to know from where you have your "real" GDP numbers. I think nominally F, D and the USA have about the same GDP/capita when one takes todays USD/Euro exchange. All the time people tell the Euro is overvalued against the USD. But isin't this mainly due to the pegging of many Asian countries?
You claim that France has ca. 80% of the real US GDP, and even only when one take the .1 % richest out. Wouldn't that mean, that our pricelevel is ca. 30% higher than the US one?
With oil, food and commodities traded internationally and only ca. 10% difference in VAT, it seems to me a bit unlikely, that the US and EU price levels are so different.
Due to that I would argue, that in the Bush years F and D did not only nearly as good as the USA, but actually better, which of course would not change your implications, but may even strengthen them.

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers

by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Thu Feb 7th, 2008 at 05:31:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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