by DoDo
Thu Feb 21st, 2008 at 08:25:01 AM EST
A candidate diary!!!
Ever since Sarkozy pushed Blair as candidate for President of the European Council, and ever since much of the media began to treat what is de-facto like a president of a senate post as if it were the President of Europe, much speculation centres on the question of whom German Chancellor Angela Merkel would approve or endorse.
Being both politically savvy and cautious from largest EU member state position, Merkel of course won't say anything explicitely. But just yesterday [Tuesday, 19 February], she held a laudation for Luxembourg PM Jean-Claude Juncker at an award ceremony, that has every appearance of a strong indirect endorsement.
You read it here first. I haven't yet found an analysis in the MSM. Update [2008-2-21 8:25:1 by DoDo]: But now it is mentioned, see comments.
When I happened to look at the Wikipedia article on the President of the European Council a week ago (which moved me to re-edit it), I found a curious line referenced to an Independent article, here is the original:
Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, may come under domestic pressure to back a rival candidate but is thought likely to rally behind M. Sarkozy.
The article quite obviously channels spin from Bliar's surrogates, the journalist didn't bother to ask around diplomats of other countries (didn't expect this from the Independent). In contrast, German media treats it as truism that Merkel dislikes Bliar and favours Juncker. But with Merkel keeping mum, there were not many public words to divine from. Until now.
The Deutscher Staatsbürgerpreis (c. 'German Citizenship Medal of Honor') is issued by a private foundation (Staatsbürgerliche Stiftung Bad Harzburg e. V.), which has a heavy presence of former holders of ceremonial posts. Merkel is the first acting chancellor to hold a laudation, a message in itself.
Her speech (full transscript) is a long, detailed and personal praise for Juncker, focused on his feats as negotiator at the European level. But I won't quote any of that, only six shorter excerpts where I read stuff between the lines, with ever stronger tendency, most importantly the last.
The first is from Merkel's intro:
| Ich will ganz deutlich sagen: Enthüllungen sind nicht zu erwarten. Indiskretionen sind sowieso nicht die Art von Staats- und Regierungschefs der Europäischen Union. Lieber Jean-Claude, das eint uns, selbst bei allen Unterschieden. Aus dem Ecofin-Rat könnte ich sowieso nichts berichten. Dazu kann nur der französische Präsident etwas sagen. Ich bin auch gar nicht scharf darauf, daraus jemals berichten zu können, denn ich glaube, dass er bei den Finanzministern in guter Hand ist. Ich hoffe, Jean-Claude, dich erfüllt diese Bemerkung mit großer Freude. | | I want to say it emphatically: do not expect disclosures. Indiscretions aren't in style for heads of states and governments in the European Union anyway. Dear Jean-Claude, this unites us, even in all our differences. I can't report anything from the Ecofin Council [Council of Europe's finance ministers] anyway. Only the French President could say something about that. Also, I don't fancy ever reporting from that at all, because I think it is in the right hands with the finance ministers. I hope, Jean Claude, that this remark fills you with joy. |
There is a careful broadside at Sarkozy (who was on the Ecofin for some time, but more notably, once President, went before it to criticise the ECB and propose political intervention on exchange rates; something anathema to mainstream German thinking on central banks). There is a subtle joke at Juncker (who is PM and finance minister in one person). But the emphasis on "indiscretions" may mean two more things: (1) another swipe at Sarko, (2) no explicit declarations (like Sarko for Bliar).
| Er ist ein Glücksfall für Europa. Als deutsche Regierungschefin sage ich: Er ist auch ein Glücksfall für Deutschland. | | He [Juncker] is a stroke of luck for Europe. As German government head, I say: he is also a stroke of luck for Germany. |
I think no comment is needed.
| Du hast [...] in einer schwierigen Zeit, nämlich nach der Ablehnung des Verfassungsvertrages in Frankreich - wir erinnern uns -, ein Referendum in deinem Lande abgehalten und hast gezeigt: Wenn ich über Europa vernünftig rede, positiv rede und trotzdem die Schwierigkeiten nicht unter den Tisch kehre, dann kann ich auch die Menschen dazu bringen, ein positives Votum für dieses Europa abzugeben. Das war damals eine ganz wichtige Demonstration, als viele andere sagten: Für Europa lockst du sowieso keinen mehr hinterm Ofen hervor. | | In a difficult time, namely after the rejection of the Constitution in France - we remember - you have held a referendum in your own country, and you showed: if I talk about Europe reasonably, talk positively yet don't sweep the difficulties under the rug, then I can move the people, too, to submit a positive vote for this Europe. Back then, this was a very important demonstration, at a time when many said: you can't get anyone excited about Europe anyway [untranslateable idiom in the original]. |
Guess who was NOT bold to face a referendum the same way.
| Lieber Jean-Claude, wir haben nun unsere Europaflagge zwar weiter in unseren Büros und summen weiter gerne die Melodie der Europahymne, aber wir haben auch die Kröte geschluckt - wenn ich das so lax sagen darf -, dass wir sie trotzdem im Vertrag nicht erwähnt haben. Beides ist in unserem täglichen Leben präsent, aber wir müssen warten, bis es irgendwann auch auf Papier geschrieben werden darf. | | Dear Jean-Claude, though we still have our Flag of Europe in our offices and still like to hum the melody of the European anthem, we swallowed the toad - if I can say it at such a lax way - that we don't mention it in the Treaty. Both are present in our daily life, but we must wait until as time when they can also be written on paper. |
Guess which referendum-fearing head of government lobbied for their exclusion.
| Auch der Erfolg unserer deutschen Ratspräsidentschaft wäre ohne sein Mittun nicht möglich gewesen. Dies gilt auch für die Tatsache, dass wir die finanzielle Vorausschau für die jetzige Periode hinbekommen, nachdem man Jean-Claude Juncker in seiner eigenen Präsidentschaft - das muss ich sagen, auch wenn ich nicht dabei war - zum Teil wirklich nicht ganz ordentlich behandelt hat. | | The success of our German Council Presidency would not have been possible without his helping out. This also applies to the fact that we succeed with the financial preview for this period, all that after - and I must say that, though I wasn't there - during his own Council Presidency, Jean-Claude Juncker was in part treated truly not in the right way. |
This is a quite open reference to the European Council's failure to get an agreement on the EU's next seven-year financial plan three years ago -- a failure primarily owed to the stubbornness of a certain British prime minister.
And, finally -- the last two paragraphs, but it's the last two sentences that really matter:
| Du hast dich um Europa verdient gemacht. Nicht ohne Grund bist du meines Wissens der einzige Mensch, der den Karlspreis zweimal erhalten hat, und zwar im Jahr 1986 als einer von den vielen Bürgerinnen und Bürgern Luxemburgs und im Jahr 2006 als luxemburgischer Regierungschef. | | You [informal] distinguished yourself for Europe. It is not without reason that, as far as I know, you are the only man to receive the Charlemagne Prize twice, namely in 1986 as one of Luxembourgs many citizens, and in 2006 as Luxembourg PM. |
| Insofern hat du dich selbst richtigerweise als einen "gesunden Optimisten" bezeichnet. Das ist vielleicht eines der Geheimnisse deines Erfolgs. Ich darf dir sagen, dass dein Optimismus oft ansteckend wirkt. Neben dem herzlichen Glückwunsch zu dem gleich zu verleihenden Preis und dem Glückwunsch an diejenigen, die entschieden haben, diesen Preis Jean-Claude Juncker zu verleihen, möchte ich sagen: Stecke uns weiter an mit deinem Optimismus. Wir brauchen dich. | | In this respect, you described yourself correctly as a "healthy optimist". Maybe that's one of the secrets of your success. May I be allowed to tell you that your optimism is contagious. Beyond the congratulations for the award you'll receive in a moment, and the good wishes to those who have decided to grant this prize to Jean-Claude Juncker, I want to say: go on infecting us with your optimism. We need you. |
Don't retire, we need you, she sez.
To conclude, Merkel chose to mention a number of episodes in European matters which all put the 'other leading candidate' in a bad light, and ended by talking not about the past, but a plea for the future. I don't think she could make her choice any more clear without going explicit.
