by DoDo
Mon Feb 4th, 2008 at 12:01:40 PM EST
That the widely watched and highly polarising Hessen state elections will shift the Overton Window to the left in Germany was something expected and predicted here on ET.
But the effect seems most striking on the Right: not only was there a shift in rhetoric and panic messages from the market liberals, but an open war broke out between the social and economic wings of the Union parties (the Christian Democrats [CDU] and their Bavarian sister party, the Christian Socialists [CSU]).
While the market-liberals rail against the social wing and Merkel, a leading member of the CSU (and of the social wing) has now openly leashed out against "neoliberal radical-reformers".
Aspects of the Hessen state regional elections were covered in four diaries on ET:
Federal political sympathies and moods often overshadow local aspects in regional elections (and thus upsets may feed back into shifts in voter intentions), but, as Martin rightly noted, not in this election. However, while local themes (education, to an extent energy) were unusually strong in the campaign, there were federally discussed ones, too. Above all, the campaign theme producing the final 5% shift, 'foreigner youth crime'; but the possible success of a campaign for energy policy change and against neoliberal reforms also attracted much attention.
Among political leaders, of course those standing in elections closer in time paid most attention. SPIEGEL noted how the rhetoric shifted in the reactions of CDU/CSU leaders of other states:
| Wahlschlappe: Unions-Länderchefs distanzieren sich von Wahlkampf in Hessen | | Election rout: CDU/CSU state chiefs distance themselves from the election campaign in Hessen |
| Einige Kollegen Kochs redeten bereits öffentlich über Fehler im hessischen Wahlkampf. Niedersachsens Ministerpräsident Christian Wulff (CDU) grenzte sich vom Stil Kochs ab. Für die Bundestagswahl 2009 könne man von Niedersachsen lernen, dass Union und FDP gemeinsam über 50 Prozent kommen könnten. Man könne für 2009 durchaus von einem sachlich-argumentativen Wahlkampfstil ausgehen. | | Some of [Roland] Koch's colleagues [as regional leaders] already speak in public about errors in the campaign in Hessen. Lower Saxony PM Christian Wulff (CDU) [who won re-election the same day] distanced himself from Koch's style. One can learn from Lower Saxony that CDU and [the neolib] FDP can get above 50 percent together. On can absolutely assume a fact-based, argumentative campaign style in 2009 [next federal elections]. |
| Der saarländische Ministerpräsident Peter Müller (CDU) bemängelte ebenfalls, dass die hessische CDU zu stark auf das Thema Jugendkriminalität gesetzt habe. "Eine stärkere Akzentuierung der Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftskompetenz wäre möglicherweise sinnvoll gewesen", sagte Müller. Dies sei für die Menschen das "Thema Nummer eins". | | The PM of Saarland, Peter Müller (CDU) also criticised that the Hessian CDU bet too strongly on the youth crime theme. "A stronger emphasis on economic policy and economic competence would probably have been useful", said Müller. This would be "theme number one" for the people. |
| Ähnlich äußerte sich Hamburgs Regierungschef Ole von Beust (CDU). Jedes Land habe seine eigenen Wahlkampfgesetze, sagte Beust. Für ihn gehe es darum, Arbeitsplätze und Wirtschaftswachstum ins Zentrum zu rücken. Hier sei Hamburg Spitze in Deutschland. In der Hansestadt wird am 24. Februar eine neue Bürgerschaft gewählt. | | [City-state] Hamburg's government head Ole von Beust (CDU) commented similarly. Every state has its own campaign rules, said Beust. For him, what's important is to put jobs and economic growth into the center. In this, Hamburg would be at the top in Germany. In the Hansa city, a new city parliament will be elected on 24 February. |
Two things are apparent in the above.
The first is a clear No to a culture-war election campaign (this is more of a coming-out from these three, who aren't famed as social conservatives). Such talk was followed up by a letter of 17 CDU/CSU politicians, demanding to keep integration policy out of the election campaign.
The second thing apparent is a lack of shift on economics, what's more, they think using it as campaign time instead of a cultural war would be a strength. While, being a leftie, I personally hope 2) is a mis-calculation, I must point out for the record that polls on the competences of parties seem to be supportive.
But let's move on to Bavaria:
| Als Konsequenz aus den CDU-Verlusten bei der hessischen Landtagswahl will Bayerns Ministerpräsident Günther Beckstein (CSU) auf das soziale Profil der CSU achten. Beckstein sagte vor einer Sitzung des CSU-Vorstands in München, die Union dürfe zwar der SPD bei Themen wie dem Mindestlohn nicht hinterherlaufen. Es müsse aber klar werden, dass für sie soziale Belange der Bürger wichtig seien. Außerdem habe die CSU die Aufgabe, bundesweit die "konservative Seite der Union" zu vertreten. | | As a consequence from the CDU losses in the Hessen state election, the PM of Bavaria, Günther Beckstein (CDU) wants to pay attention to the social profile of the CSU. Beckstein said ahead of a meeting of the CSU leadership that though the Union should not run after the SPD on themes like that of the minimal wage, mut it must be made clear that the social concerns of the citizens are important for the CDU/CSU. Also, the CSU has the mission to represent the "conservative side of the Union" across the country. |
| Auch CSU-Chef Erwin Huber äußerte indirekt Kritik an Koch. Im Bayerischen Rundfunk sagte er laut einer Mitteilung, es sei deutlich geworden, dass eine "Kombination aus Kompetenz und Sympathie" die Wähler überzeuge. | | CSU boss Erwin Huber also aired indirect criticism of Koch. In the Bavarian Broadcaster [local public media], he said according to a news report, that it became apparent that "a combination of competence and sympathy" convinces the voters. |
(Sidenote: that quip about representing the conservative side was much-noted. It may tell of continuing aspirations from/threats by the CSU to become a federal party, competing for more conservative voters with the CDU in other states. It surely tells the CDU to not 'steal' their populist law-and-order themes like Koch did, see diary by nanne & me.)
Even such muted shifts in rhetoric put neoliberals in panic mode. The following intro to an op-ed at SPIEGEL ON-LINE reads like a parody:
STANDORT D
Deutschland in der Sozial-Falle | | Habitat G
Germany in the social trap |
| Mindestlohn-Streit, Nokia-Eklat, Protest gegen hohe Managergehälter: Die Deutschen handeln, als sei die Globalisierung nur ein böser Traum. Volk und Politiker sind vereint im Umverteilungsrausch - das bittere Ende ist gewiss. Von Wolfgang Kaden mehr... | | Fight over minimal wage, Nokia scandal [a tax-break-subventitioned factory got outsourced], protest against high manager wages: the Germans act as if globalisation would just be a bad dream. People and politicians are united in a redistribution high - the bitter end is certain. By Wolfgang Kaden more... |
The "reform" Armageddon, LOL!
Next, the market-liberal Wirtschaftsflügel ('economic wing') of the CDU/CSU rang the alarm bells, pretending to be ignored (after years of working hard to have the social wing ignored, with success):
| CDU-Debakel: Unions-Reformer knöpfen sich Merkel vor | | CDU debacle: the reformers of the Union take Merkel to task |
| "Angela Merkel fährt in der Großen Koalition einen Linkskurs, der von den bürgerlichen Stammwählern in der Union nicht mitgetragen wird", sagte der Chef der CDU/CSU-Mittelstandsvereinigung, Josef Schlarmann, im ZDF. Dies zeige sich in der Gesundheits- und Arbeitsmarktpolitik und etwa in den Änderungen an den Hartz-IV-Gesetzen. Es gebe eine ganze Reihe von Vereinbarungen in der Koalition, die "nicht unionsgeprägt" gewesen seien, sondern die die SPD durchgesetzt habe. | | "Angela Merkel drives in a left direction in the Grand Coalition, which is not supported by the bourgeois base in the Union", said the boss of the CDU/CSU mid-tier business union, Josef Schlarmann, in [the second federal public TV] ZDF. This would show itself in the healthcare and labour policy and the changes to the Harz-IV laws [Schröder's labour market 'reforms']. There would be a whole series of agreements in the coalition which "weren't shaped by the CDU/CSU", but were pushed through by the SPD. |
| Schlarmann forderte CDU-Chefin Merkel auf, sich daran zu erinnern, dass die Union sich aus Liberalen, Konservativen und einem sozialen Flügel zusammensetze. Die Balance zwischen den drei Flügeln mache "das Geheimnis der Union aus". Die Koalition im Bund trage erhebliche Verantwortung für die Verluste bei den Wahlen in Niedersachsen und Hessen am Sonntag. | | Schlarmann asked CDU boss Merkel to remember that the Union consists of a liberal, a conservative and a social wing. The "secret of the Union" is in the balance between the three wings. The federal coalition would carry a considerable responsibility for the losses in the elections in Lower Saxony and Hessen on Sunday. |
This fits with the election loss explaining rhetoric of the first three state heads quoted above, though not with the fact of the strong local nature of the Hessen elections.
In the last few years, after such comments, the CDU/CSU social wing would shut up. Not this time.
Horst Seehofer is the current federal Nutrition, Agriculture and Consumer Protection Minister. He is also a prominent member of the CSU, though last September, he lost out in his CSU leadership bid 58% to 39% to the market-liberal Erwin Huber (also see Stoiber goes on ET).
In an interview with Süddeutsche Zeitung (from which I took the above dpa photo), he said:
| SZ: Auch wenn Sie das nicht mehr hören können: Jetzt gibt es wieder Stimmen in der Union, die einen stärker wirtschaftsliberalen Kurs fordern, um sich stärker von der SPD abzugrenzen. | | SZ: Even if you don't want to hear that again: there are again voices in the CDU/CSU who demand a more strongly market-liberal course, to differentiate more strongly from the SPD. |
Seehofer: Ja, wo ist denn die Sozialdemokratisierung der Union? ... Die Rückkehr zu einem neoliberalen Kurs ist der sichere Weg in die Opposition. Wir haben drei Wurzeln: eine marktwirtschaftliche, eine soziale und eine konservative. Nur wenn alle drei gepflegt werden, haben wir als Volkspartei Erfolg.
Das ist naturgesetzlich. Wer diese drei Standbeine nicht gleichermaßen stark hält, wird immer wieder Enttäuschungen an der Wahlurne erleben. Ich komme mir allmählich vor wie ein Missionar. | | Seehofer: Yeah, where is then the social-democratisation of the CDU/CSU? ... The return to a neoliberal course is the safe way into opposition. We have three roots: a market-liberal economic, a social and a conservative. Only if all three are nurtured, do we have a chance as popular party.
That's like a natural law. The one who doesn't keep these three pillars equally strong, will experience disappointments at the ballot box again and again. Gradually I appear to myself like a missionary. |
| SZ: Die Union hat demnach seit zehn Jahren die Verluste auf Bundesebene nicht ehrlich analysiert. | | SZ: From that follows that the CDU/CSU didn't analyse losses at the federal level honestly. |
| Seehofer: Es ist immer wieder ein Kampf zwischen Wirtschaftsflügel und Sozialflügel. Aber diejenigen, die in der Mitte zwischen diesen beiden Flügeln sitzen, nämlich im Cockpit, müssen unsere Politik gestalten und die Balance halten. Warum immer wieder die Forderung nach einer stärkeren Wirtschaftsorientierung erhoben wird, verstehe ich nicht. | | Seehofer: It's always a fight between the economic wing and the social wing. But those who sit in the middle between these two wings, that is in the cockpit, must shape our politics and keep balance. Why this demand for a stronger economic orientation is raised again and again, I don't understand. |
You see, the balance of the three wings from another perspective -- and, at the end, veiled criticism for Merkel also from this other perspective. Before we come to the whopper in the interview, Seehofer's position on the current big issue in federal politics:
| SZ: Sie haben selber den Mindestlohn angesprochen. Ist das nicht die Achillesferse der Union? Wie wollen sie da aus der Defensive kommen? | | SZ: You yourself mentioned the minimum wage. Is that not the Achilles Heel of the CDU/CSU? How do you want to get out of the defensive on that? |
| Seehofer: Ich stütze mich auf das, was in der Koalition vereinbart worden ist. Die wichtigste Botschaft für die Menschen ist: Wer vollbeschäftigt ist, sollte auch eine Bezahlung bekommen, von der er existieren kann. | | Seehofer: I base by [position] on what was agreed in the coalition. The most important message for the people is: someone who is full-time employed should also get a payment, which he can exist. |
The minimum wage was indeed in the coalition agreement of the federal CDU/CSU+SPD Grand Coalition in 2005. Seehofer then goes explicit and goes into detail on own ideas on the minimum wage, and then shows agreements to other recent SPD demands, but I move on to the end:
| SZ: Ihr Parteichef Erwin Huber will die nächste Bundestagswahl nach dem Motto Freiheit oder Sozialismus führen. Ist das nicht ein Anachronismus? | | SZ: Your party boss Erwin Huber wants to lead the next federal campaign after the motto Freedom or Socialism. Is that not an anachronism? |
Seehofer: (denkt lange nach und schüttelt immer wieder den Kopf) Die Entwicklung im linken Spektrum gibt durchaus Anlass für solche Überlegungen. Aber meine ganze Erfahrung sagt mir: radikale Positionen sind heutzutage kein Renner bei der Bevölkerung. Dasselbe gilt für radikale Reformen.
Die eigentlichen Reformverhinderer unserer Zeit sind die neoliberalen Radikalreformer. Die alles wollen und nichts bekommen. In der Medizin wendet man eine Radikaloperation bei schwerkranken Patienten an. Aber es wird niemand behaupten können, dass Deutschland ein schwerkranker Patient ist. Und deshalb verbieten sich Radikaleingriffe und Totaloperationen. Wir wollen als CSU vernunftgeleitete Fortentwicklungen durchführen. Da ist die Bevölkerung dabei. | | Seehofer: (thinks for a long time and shakes his head repeatedly) The developments in the leftist spectrum give by all means an opportunity for such considerations. But all my experience tells me: radical positions aren't all the rage in the population today. The same goes for radical reforms.
The real reform preventers in our time are the neoliberal radical-reformers. Who want everything and get nothing. In medicine, one applies a radical operation for seriously ill patients. But no one can claim that Germany is a seriously ill patient. And for that reason, radical interventions and total operations should be barred. We as the CSU want to continue with reason-guided developments. The population sides with that. |
BANG!!!
Other CDU members reacted with outrage. For example, Brandenburg state interior minister Jörg Schönbohm (whom I knew for being second-only to Beckstein in law-and-orderism):
| Die Union müsse Politik für die Menschen machen, "und Wirtschaftspolitik ist in unserer globalisierten Welt eine zentrale Frage", sagte Brandenburgs Innenminister Jörg Schönbohm (CDU) im Deutschlandfunk. "Von daher verstehe ich nicht, was Seehofer sagt", fügte er hinzu. | | The Union must make politics for people, "and economic policy is a central question in our globalised world", said Brandenburg's interior minister Jörg Schönbohm (CDU) to Deutschlandfunk. "Because of that, I don't understand what Seehofer says", he added. |
I'm watching with interest how this develops...
