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by Jerome a Paris Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 01:08:34 PM EST
Russian Production Decline Triggers Alarms Russian oil production dropped in January for the first time in nearly 10 years. Abroad, the decline puts more strain on global oil supply following last week's refusal by Opec to increase output. At home, it could set alarm bells ringing in the Kremlin over fears it could negatively impact the inflows into state coffers needed to finance the ambitious social programs being promised by Dmitry Medvedev, the favorite to win Russia's Mar. 2 presidential election. (Thursday, February 7, 2008)
Russian oil production dropped in January for the first time in nearly 10 years. Abroad, the decline puts more strain on global oil supply following last week's refusal by Opec to increase output. At home, it could set alarm bells ringing in the Kremlin over fears it could negatively impact the inflows into state coffers needed to finance the ambitious social programs being promised by Dmitry Medvedev, the favorite to win Russia's Mar. 2 presidential election. (Thursday, February 7, 2008)
Russia has been the biggest contributor to global oil production increases over the past few years. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
Let´s do it well, Jerome. (; Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.
TEA WITH FT HAVING BEEN AN EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE WORLD BANK I KNOW THAT THE COLUMNISTS OF THE FINANCIAL TIMES HAVE MORE VOICE THAN WHAT WE EVER HAD, AND THEREFORE THEY ALSO NEED SOME CHECKS-AND-BALANCES, OF THOSE THAT DO NOT ALWAYS HAVE TO BE APPROVED BY THE EDITOR. THIS IS MY SMALL CONTRIBUTION. ENJOY IT!
HAVING BEEN AN EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE WORLD BANK I KNOW THAT THE COLUMNISTS OF THE FINANCIAL TIMES HAVE MORE VOICE THAN WHAT WE EVER HAD, AND THEREFORE THEY ALSO NEED SOME CHECKS-AND-BALANCES, OF THOSE THAT DO NOT ALWAYS HAVE TO BE APPROVED BY THE EDITOR. THIS IS MY SMALL CONTRIBUTION. ENJOY IT!
Why the price of 'peak oil' is famine By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard International Business Editor Vulnerable regions of the world face the risk of famine over the next three years as rising energy costs spill over into a food crunch, according to US investment bank Goldman Sachs. "We've never been at a point in commodities where we are today," said Jeff Currie, the bank's commodity chief and closely watched oil guru. Global oil output has been stagnant for four years, failing to keep up with rampant demand from Asia and the Mid-East. China's imports rose 14pc last year. Biofuels from grain, oil seed and sugar are plugging the gap, but drawing away food supplies at a time when the world is adding more than 70m mouths to feed a year.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard International Business Editor
Vulnerable regions of the world face the risk of famine over the next three years as rising energy costs spill over into a food crunch, according to US investment bank Goldman Sachs.
"We've never been at a point in commodities where we are today," said Jeff Currie, the bank's commodity chief and closely watched oil guru.
Global oil output has been stagnant for four years, failing to keep up with rampant demand from Asia and the Mid-East. China's imports rose 14pc last year. Biofuels from grain, oil seed and sugar are plugging the gap, but drawing away food supplies at a time when the world is adding more than 70m mouths to feed a year.
Since 'famine' is the market solution to food shortages, maybe the price of 'peak oil' is the adoption of non-market solutions to problems. We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
Exxon wins $12b freeze on Venezuela assets NEW YORK - Exxon Mobil Corp. has secured court orders to freeze more than $12 billion in worldwide assets of Venezuela's state-owned oil company, as it prepares to dispute the nationalization of a multi-billion dollar oil project. The move limits Petroleos de Venezuela's room to maneuver as it fends off challenges from major Western oil companies over President Hugo Chavez's 2007 decision to nationalize four heavy oil projects in the Orinoco Basin, one of the richest oil deposits in the world. (...) According to documents filed last month in the U.S. District Court in Manhattan, Exxon Mobil has secured an "order of attachment" on about $300 million in cash held by PdVSA. A hearing to confirm the order is scheduled in New York for Feb. 13. Exxon also filed documents with the New York court showing it had secured a freeze on $12 billion on PdVSA's worldwide assets from a U.K. court.
NEW YORK - Exxon Mobil Corp. has secured court orders to freeze more than $12 billion in worldwide assets of Venezuela's state-owned oil company, as it prepares to dispute the nationalization of a multi-billion dollar oil project.
The move limits Petroleos de Venezuela's room to maneuver as it fends off challenges from major Western oil companies over President Hugo Chavez's 2007 decision to nationalize four heavy oil projects in the Orinoco Basin, one of the richest oil deposits in the world.
(...)
According to documents filed last month in the U.S. District Court in Manhattan, Exxon Mobil has secured an "order of attachment" on about $300 million in cash held by PdVSA. A hearing to confirm the order is scheduled in New York for Feb. 13. Exxon also filed documents with the New York court showing it had secured a freeze on $12 billion on PdVSA's worldwide assets from a U.K. court.
This triggered oil prices increases on Friday as traders worried about Venezuelan retaliation. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
what do I do with the catalan final version I have of the Blair petition?
A pleasure I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude
waiting for comments...I am updating also de html version with catlan.
i send it to you when you wish.
Sarkozy se pose en victime des médias La reconquête de l'opinion décidée par Nicolas Sarkozy passe aussi par une pression accrue sur les médias. Jeudi 7 février, le chef de l'Etat a chargé son avocat, Thierry Herzog, de déposer plainte pour "faux et usage de faux et recel" - passible de trois ans d'emprisonnement et de 45 000 euros d'amende - contre le site Internet nouvelobs.com. La veille, celui-ci avait publié une information selon laquelle, une semaine avant son remariage avec Carla Bruni, le président de la République aurait proposé de reprendre sa vie commune avec son ancienne épouse, Cécilia. (...) Depuis plusieurs semaines, M. Sarkozy semble vouloir durcir ses relations avec les médias, alors que les premières difficultés de son mandat se présentent. Durant sa carrière politique, il avait, au contraire, fait de son rapport à la presse décontracté mais pas toujours amène un de ses atouts. Usant de confidences à caractère politique ou personnel, il avait poussé la transparence aux limites de l'impudeur comme l'ont montré les épisodes de son divorce et la révélation de sa liaison avec Carla Bruni. Aujourd'hui, ses proches abondent de confidences selon lesquelles, le chef de l'Etat daube tel ou tel organe de presse ou tel ou tel journaliste au gré de sa mauvaise humeur. Sa conférence de presse du 8 janvier marque un tournant. Recherchant volontiers la complicité avec les journalistes dont, en privé, il tutoie quelques uns, M. Sarkozy avait montré ce jour-là une inhabituelle agressivité à leur égard.
La reconquête de l'opinion décidée par Nicolas Sarkozy passe aussi par une pression accrue sur les médias. Jeudi 7 février, le chef de l'Etat a chargé son avocat, Thierry Herzog, de déposer plainte pour "faux et usage de faux et recel" - passible de trois ans d'emprisonnement et de 45 000 euros d'amende - contre le site Internet nouvelobs.com. La veille, celui-ci avait publié une information selon laquelle, une semaine avant son remariage avec Carla Bruni, le président de la République aurait proposé de reprendre sa vie commune avec son ancienne épouse, Cécilia.
Depuis plusieurs semaines, M. Sarkozy semble vouloir durcir ses relations avec les médias, alors que les premières difficultés de son mandat se présentent. Durant sa carrière politique, il avait, au contraire, fait de son rapport à la presse décontracté mais pas toujours amène un de ses atouts. Usant de confidences à caractère politique ou personnel, il avait poussé la transparence aux limites de l'impudeur comme l'ont montré les épisodes de son divorce et la révélation de sa liaison avec Carla Bruni.
Aujourd'hui, ses proches abondent de confidences selon lesquelles, le chef de l'Etat daube tel ou tel organe de presse ou tel ou tel journaliste au gré de sa mauvaise humeur. Sa conférence de presse du 8 janvier marque un tournant. Recherchant volontiers la complicité avec les journalistes dont, en privé, il tutoie quelques uns, M. Sarkozy avait montré ce jour-là une inhabituelle agressivité à leur égard.
This should be fun to watch. Sarkozy has now decided to paly hardball with journalists (including unprecedented court action against them), after all these years of 'playing' them. A backlash seems quite possible, we'll see how much control his friendly media barons really have...
But the gall of Sarkozy complaining about journalists digging about his private life is just unbelievable (and too believable, in the Bush era) In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
More.... The struggle of man against tyranny is the struggle of memory against forgetting.(Kundera)
What he's looking for here is to create a chilling effect, a bitchslap to remind the bitches who's their daddy.
Will it work? Newspapers and magazines today are corporations and most journalists ultimately want to make a career...
I guess your interlocutor wasn't Chinese...
04/02/08 05/02/08 06/02/08 07/02/08 08/02/08 09/02/08 1 663 2562 5956 8751 10248+
4/2: 1 5/2: 662 6/2: 1899 7/2: 3394 8/2: 2795 9/2: 1799 (so far)
Sadly, the peak has passed. But still, a good job done to show how much Blair is disliked. Member of the Anti-Fabulousness League since 1987.
We've his Austria today, for instance, which explains its presence among the top 4 countries (UK, Belgium, France, Austria in that order). We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
I think it is good until we reach the 100.000 then qwe can make a goal sign.
A proposal...
It will be interesting, if it has peaked, to watch if it simmers for a while before boiling again once candidates are announced/known (will they be announced? or not? what's the process? I suppose there isn't one). After all, Blair is still the Middle East Envoy. Member of the Anti-Fabulousness League since 1987.
Region 04/02/08 05/02/08 06/02/08 07/02/08 08/02/08 09/02/08 UK 0 373 833 1418 1281 275 Belgium 0 19 417 653 295 84 France 1 54 100 492 457 110 Austria 0 4 6 9 10 751 Portugal 0 5 102 169 97 28 Germany 0 38 49 102 87 55 Netherlands 0 12 59 86 93 13 Spain 0 20 65 51 64 19 Italy 0 5 24 62 49 20 USA 0 33 47 30 35 11
So I woke up today awaiting the angry email from the library staff who deal with interlibrary loans at my university. I keep them busy, and I think they know me for this line "well there's not a copy available in this country." I'm sure that the clerks at the British library dislike for the same reason.
So I managed to top myelf looking for books written by Don Jose Maria Arizemendiarrieta, the Basque priest who founded the Mondragon Cooperative society. I'm doing research for my Marxism class (We're reading Capital and the Grundrisse) on worker ownership of the means of production. So I've got three strains I'm researching.
So after an hour on the internent looking for a copy to buy, I finally locate one. Which was great, since it was a huge pdf that looked to be the entire book. Just one problem. It was in Basque.........
This has been my day..... And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
That moment was sort of nice. And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
"The United States is the most insecure nation in the world.... They are afraid of even the most insignificant threats."
Events in the daily news here would keep the U.S. agitated for months, and perhaps induce hysterical security paralysis. Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.
you are the media you consume.
Got mugged on my way to the supermarket.
It was already getting dark while I was walking alongside a major road. Suddenly someone overtakes me. That was the first odd thing - I walk fast, I overtake other people, not the other way around. But well, then it was too late. The guy turns, blocks my path, I hear a click, and there is a knife in his hand and a demand for my phone. A split second hesitation if I should dart sideways on the road - but then decide not to and follow what I've been taught. Just do what is asked, don't make eye contact, tell calmly what you're going to do.
I don't care about my phone. It was the cheapest model and I don't have a contract. There was less than 15 Rand (less than 1.50 Euro) credit left on it. I gave him the phone and asked if I could keep the SIM card. He said, "Fuck you" while he was already walking away. I guess that was a no.
I generally don't take anything of value with me when I walk after sunset - except for my phone and 20 Rand of contingency money. But today I was carrying my 1800 Rand worth broadband antenna in a plastic back and my bank card (separately and outside my wallet) with me for my shoppings. Could've been worse.
The biggest loss is the 70+ SMSes of my girlfriend where she tells she loves me. And the hazzle to get a new phone is an irritant.
But well. I'm fine, unharmed, and a little wiser. I hope the guy will feel bad about it one day.
That's it.
I had a good night, nothing restless, no bad dreams. But metavision is right: I've lost something of trust, I'm not as eager to go walking that part of town and feel more motivated to get a car.
If you've got friends there nearby, it might be a very good idea to travel in a group, or perhaps call for a ride, if you're going to be out late, though. If you get word that muggings are pretty there, you might want to speak with the police about getting more frequent patrolling in the area, too. I'm not sure how much good it'll do, since, in my case, the cops are usually concerned with preventing violent crime on the other side of the river, but it can't hurt. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
If you get word that muggings are pretty there
Change that to "...pretty common there...." Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
Generally, crime in Jozi appears somewhat migratory to me - because intensified police actions are migratory. The business district is getting cleaned up, and notorious Hillbrow is following. The area where I live seems to be on the rise: it's full of careless students with enough money to live outside the townships. It's also the new academic year - also a period with higher risk.
Less than 30 minutes later after I had "redistributed" my phone, near the street where I stay, there was a massive police raid. My friends told me today that the area appears currently heavily targeted by the police.
But it's good advice. I'll be asking for some more car pooling in the meantime and will just swim more on campus to get my exercise...
Obligatory SA crime story: The one time I got mugged there, the guy beat the crap out of me, I was covered with bruises and had headaches for weeks from where he hit me in the head.
Obligatory USA crime story: But I know (personally) half a dozen people who've been killed in robberies or attempted robberies in the States, so it could all obviously be worse.
You handled it exactly right.
Be good, and Nomad, be careful !! keep to the Fen Causeway
Obama 67%, Clinton 32% in the Washington State caucus, at 48% reporting.
Obama 69%, Clinton 30% in the Nebraska caucus, at 73% reporting.
Huckabee takes Kansas, gets 60% of vote, McCain 24%, Paul 11%.
Drew, ATinNM, where are you guys?
And Jessie Jackson didn't win Washington, I'd guess. ;) Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
My working thesis, it's a bit bland, but some people don't seem to get it, so maybe it's not so bland.
I expect Clinton also to lose Lousiana big, and probably also Maine tomorrow, so she's going to come out of this weekend about 50-60 pledged delegates behind.
I don't expect him to win Maine, but, if he does, it'll be a very nice add-on for them. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
Blacks and kids don't work, or something. And you know how many of them there are in Nebraska. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
The reason is psychological, and it's pretty basic psychology. Caucusing is just a bigger investment, requiring higher motivation. The people who back Clinton have a bit less of that -- they're just not sure about Obama.
So Obama is also going to beat his poll numbers in Maine, I think, by about 30% (e.g. if he's polling 40 he'll get 54).
Yeah, I don't get the spin either. But, as Matt Taibbi pointed out, you can send anything up the flag pole, and these dopey reporters will recite it.
Example: "The 'surge' is working." Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
Now, granted, Obama tends to outperform the polls in caucus states. In fact, I think he has done so in all caucus states and most, if not all, primary states.
I think the story is that, if Obama continues on this pace, he can finish off the race in Ohio and Texas. He just got the endorsement of the big paper in Cleveland, but he was polling at 19% last I checked against Hillary's 48%. That's an unbelievably steep hill to climb. Texas -- again, last I checked -- was at 48-38% for Clinton, although she was down 3pts and Obama was up 21. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
Rather less for Clinton than the exits suggested. Early voting for Edwards, a lot?
Obama 54% Clinton 37%
Where'd the other 9-10% go? Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
Update 15: Most of New Orleans, All of Baton Rouge, Shreveport, Lafayette, and Alexandria Have Not Yet Reported
I don't know if that's true. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
Dems
Reps
Huckster 46% St. John 37% Mittster 9% Paul 5%
Could Huckabee stun everyone?
MSNBC just called Louisiana for Obama. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
But it gives Huckabooby some interesting leverage for a claim on the Veep seat.
Even more interesting is trying to imagine someone willing to run with McCain. One guess would be Lieberman, in a silly and theatrical attempt to split the Dems.
But it's so very hard to imagine St NovoCain sharing a ticket with anyone who makes any strategic sense at all. The Rs just aren't that unified - anything but, in fact.
It would be cool, and not totally unexpected, if McCain got some total loser like Rick Santorum or George Allen to run as veep.
For Huck's success, it allows him a shot to consolidate the social conservatives -- a group with whom St John is very weak. That's his opening on the Veep slot. My sense is he has not promised it to Huck. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
(State went to Bush in '04)
Lousiana is going to be solid blue territory in the general election.
Dems (87% reporting)
Obama: 68% Clinton: 31%
Reps (16% reporting)
St. John: 27% Huckster: 26% Paul: 21% Mittster: 16%
Dead heat. Not-so-surprising surprise showing for Paul. Is Washington winner takes all?
Feel the Huckaboom! Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
Bloomberg.com: U.S. Elections
Washington Feb. 9 Dem caucus -- 97 delegates. Caucus. Modified Caucus. Rep caucus -- 40 delegates. Winner take all by CD, proportional primary. Closed caucus. (NOTE: there are also primaries on Feb. 19)
Obama's takes 90% of the vote in the Virgin Islands, so he may well get all three delegates instead of the 2-1 split. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
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