Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.

Saturday Open Thread

by Jerome a Paris Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 01:08:34 PM EST

Open


Display:

Russian Production Decline Triggers Alarms

Russian oil production dropped in January for the first time in nearly 10 years. Abroad, the decline puts more strain on global oil supply following last week's refusal by Opec to increase output. At home, it could set alarm bells ringing in the Kremlin over fears it could negatively impact the inflows into state coffers needed to finance the ambitious social programs being promised by Dmitry Medvedev, the favorite to win Russia's Mar. 2 presidential election. (Thursday, February 7, 2008)

Russia has been the biggest contributor to global oil production increases over the past few years.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 01:10:31 PM EST
use as subject header the media organisation

Let´s do it well, Jerome.  (;

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.

by metavision on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 01:48:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That particular instruction was relevant to one specific thread, which was specifically about press coverage. It's not a general instruction.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 02:08:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]


Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.
by metavision on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 02:39:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Apparently we won yesterday. No idea how significant this is.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 01:11:23 PM EST
If a blog is worth flagging, this one should certainly be noted by us:


TEA WITH FT

HAVING BEEN AN EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE WORLD BANK I KNOW THAT THE COLUMNISTS OF THE FINANCIAL TIMES HAVE MORE VOICE THAN WHAT WE EVER HAD, AND THEREFORE THEY ALSO NEED SOME CHECKS-AND-BALANCES, OF THOSE THAT DO NOT ALWAYS HAVE TO BE APPROVED BY THE EDITOR. THIS IS MY SMALL CONTRIBUTION. ENJOY IT!



In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 01:21:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What do we win ? A cuddly toy would be nice.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 02:01:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Why the price of 'peak oil' is famine

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard International Business Editor

Vulnerable regions of the world face the risk of famine over the next three years as rising energy costs spill over into a food crunch, according to US investment bank Goldman Sachs.

"We've never been at a point in commodities where we are today," said Jeff Currie, the bank's commodity chief and closely watched oil guru.

Global oil output has been stagnant for four years, failing to keep up with rampant demand from Asia and the Mid-East. China's imports rose 14pc last year. Biofuels from grain, oil seed and sugar are plugging the gap, but drawing away food supplies at a time when the world is adding more than 70m mouths to feed a year.



In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 01:13:32 PM EST
[Torygraph Alert]

Since 'famine' is the market solution to food shortages, maybe the price of 'peak oil' is the adoption of non-market solutions to problems.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 01:40:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nice of them to notice about a week after everyone else.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 02:03:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Exxon wins $12b freeze on Venezuela assets

NEW YORK - Exxon Mobil Corp. has secured court orders to freeze more than $12 billion in worldwide assets of Venezuela's state-owned oil company, as it prepares to dispute the nationalization of a multi-billion dollar oil project.

The move limits Petroleos de Venezuela's room to maneuver as it fends off challenges from major Western oil companies over President Hugo Chavez's 2007 decision to nationalize four heavy oil projects in the Orinoco Basin, one of the richest oil deposits in the world.

(...)

According to documents filed last month in the U.S. District Court in Manhattan, Exxon Mobil has secured an "order of attachment" on about $300 million in cash held by PdVSA. A hearing to confirm the order is scheduled in New York for Feb. 13. Exxon also filed documents with the New York court showing it had secured a freeze on $12 billion on PdVSA's worldwide assets from a U.K. court.

This triggered oil prices increases on Friday as traders worried about Venezuelan retaliation.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 01:15:54 PM EST
I ahve a question...

what do I do with the catalan final version I have of the Blair petition?

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 01:19:30 PM EST
You follow the translators' instructions (rename the file indexct.html) and you post the text as a comment to Stop Blair! in more languages by DoDo on February 6th, 2008.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 01:38:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Do I do first the second part so that people can say soemthing about it before the change in format?

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 01:54:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sure.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 02:08:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Posted in the thrad...

waiting for comments...I am updating also de html version with catlan.

i send it to you when you wish.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 02:23:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Send it now, don't forget the margin texts and the <title> tag.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 02:28:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Sarkozy se pose en victime des médias

La reconquête de l'opinion décidée par Nicolas Sarkozy passe aussi par une pression accrue sur les médias. Jeudi 7 février, le chef de l'Etat a chargé son avocat, Thierry Herzog, de déposer plainte pour "faux et usage de faux et recel" - passible de trois ans d'emprisonnement et de 45 000 euros d'amende - contre le site Internet nouvelobs.com. La veille, celui-ci avait publié une information selon laquelle, une semaine avant son remariage avec Carla Bruni, le président de la République aurait proposé de reprendre sa vie commune avec son ancienne épouse, Cécilia.

(...)

Depuis plusieurs semaines, M. Sarkozy semble vouloir durcir ses relations avec les médias, alors que les premières difficultés de son mandat se présentent. Durant sa carrière politique, il avait, au contraire, fait de son rapport à la presse décontracté mais pas toujours amène un de ses atouts. Usant de confidences à caractère politique ou personnel, il avait poussé la transparence aux limites de l'impudeur comme l'ont montré les épisodes de son divorce et la révélation de sa liaison avec Carla Bruni.

Aujourd'hui, ses proches abondent de confidences selon lesquelles, le chef de l'Etat daube tel ou tel organe de presse ou tel ou tel journaliste au gré de sa mauvaise humeur. Sa conférence de presse du 8 janvier marque un tournant. Recherchant volontiers la complicité avec les journalistes dont, en privé, il tutoie quelques uns, M. Sarkozy avait montré ce jour-là une inhabituelle agressivité à leur égard.

This should be fun to watch. Sarkozy has now decided to paly hardball with journalists (including unprecedented court action against them), after all these years of 'playing' them. A backlash seems quite possible, we'll see how much control his friendly media barons really have...

But the gall of Sarkozy complaining about journalists digging about his private life is just unbelievable (and too believable, in the Bush era)

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 01:19:46 PM EST

More....

The struggle of man against tyranny is the struggle of memory against forgetting.(Kundera)

by Elco B (elcob at scarlet dot be) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 01:47:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This might be not so funny: Sarkozy openly boasted in front of journalists that he "knows all their bosses". This is a second conduit (in addition to the legal action mentioned) to intimidate and pressure journalists.

What he's looking for here is to create a chilling effect, a bitchslap to remind the bitches who's their daddy.

Will it work? Newspapers and magazines today are corporations and most journalists ultimately want to make a career...

by Bernard (bernard) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 03:41:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I quoted your sig line once and somebody posted something to the effect of ..."and the chinese smile at both those mistaken notions."

"I said, 'Wait a minute, Chester, You know I'm a peaceful man...'" Robbie Robertson
by NearlyNormal on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 11:03:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Interesting, all these perceptions we have about the Chinese, just like between Europeans and Americans, BTW.

I guess your interlocutor wasn't Chinese...

by Bernard (bernard) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 08:56:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
04/02/08 05/02/08 06/02/08 07/02/08 08/02/08 09/02/08
       1      663     2562     5956     8751    10248+


We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 01:43:59 PM EST
Ah, but that only shows the total numbers, not how many have signed on each day.

4/2: 1
5/2: 662
6/2: 1899
7/2: 3394
8/2: 2795
9/2: 1799 (so far)

Sadly, the peak has passed. But still, a good job done to show how much Blair is disliked.

Member of the Anti-Fabulousness League since 1987.

by Ephemera on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 02:06:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The peak is due to the petition being mentioned on the BBC evening news.

We've his Austria today, for instance, which explains its presence among the top 4 countries (UK, Belgium, France, Austria in that order).

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 02:10:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
un contador.. A sinmple counter of people signing the petition would be fine now that we have reached 10.000.

I think it is good until we reach the 100.000 then qwe can make a goal sign.

A proposal...

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 02:14:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I had noticed half of Austria has signed the petition today...

It will be interesting, if it has peaked, to watch if it simmers for a while before boiling again once candidates are announced/known (will they be announced? or not? what's the process? I suppose there isn't one). After all, Blair is still the Middle East Envoy.

Member of the Anti-Fabulousness League since 1987.

by Ephemera on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 02:17:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Welcome to European Tribune, Ephemera! I hope your active presence her will not be ephemeral...

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
by Melanchthon on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 02:31:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks for the welcome! I'll try to last longer than a day...

Member of the Anti-Fabulousness League since 1987.
by Ephemera on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 03:30:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
10811 as of now.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 05:52:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
and up to 28th on their list of most popular.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 08:56:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Region	    04/02/08 05/02/08 06/02/08 07/02/08 08/02/08 09/02/08
UK		   0	  373	   833	   1418     1281      275
Belgium 	   0	   19	   417	    653      295       84
France		   1	   54	   100	    492      457      110
Austria 	   0	    4	     6	      9       10      751
Portugal	   0	    5	   102	    169       97       28
Germany 	   0	   38	    49	    102       87       55
Netherlands	   0	   12	    59	     86       93       13
Spain		   0	   20	    65	     51       64       19
Italy		   0	    5	    24	     62       49       20
USA		   0	   33	    47	     30       35       11


We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 06:30:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This has been one of those days.

So I woke up today awaiting the angry email from the library staff who deal with interlibrary loans at my university.  I keep them busy, and I think they know me for this line "well there's not a copy available in this country."  I'm sure that the clerks at the British library dislike for the same reason.

So I managed to top myelf looking for books written by Don Jose Maria Arizemendiarrieta, the Basque priest who founded the Mondragon Cooperative society.  I'm doing research for my Marxism class (We're reading Capital and the Grundrisse) on worker ownership of the means of production.  So  I've got three strains I'm researching.  

  1. The Mondragon type- reformist

  2. The Zanon Argentine recupereated factories type- radical libertarian.

  3. The Venezuela program

So I finally locate a copy of Arizemendiarrieta's writings in the Mondragon University near Bilbao, and I write to the library staff at my univeristy to see if they can get a copy.  Not going to happen.

So after an hour on the internent looking for a copy to buy, I finally locate one.  Which was great, since it was a huge pdf that looked to be the entire book.  Just one problem. It was in Basque.........

This has been my day.....

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 02:49:45 PM EST
We all ahve day's like that, it's when they all seem to come at once it gets upsetting.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 04:57:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There was that moment of joy when the pdf was loading before I saw the language of the devil strewn across my screen, and realized "aw, s*** it's in Basque."

That moment was sort of nice.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 05:07:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A fragment of conversation among Indians, overheard while dining in a scientific institute guesthouse:

"The United States is the most insecure nation in the world.... They are afraid of even the most insignificant threats."

Events in the daily news here would keep the U.S. agitated for months, and perhaps induce hysterical security paralysis.

Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.

by technopolitical on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 03:13:17 PM EST
If they're referring to the government I think "control freaks" is more appropriate. If referring to the citizens, then I'd agree - since humans normalize risk levels in daily life, living in the burbs where nothing dangerous ever happens all sorts of odd behavior pops out.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 03:40:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And yet they have to convince themselves that they don't live boring, pointless lives by watching Desperate Housewives and Brothers & Sisters and other such garbage.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 03:44:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
More primary and caucus fun for me tonight, and I may get a chance to see the candidates when they're in the DC area -- an Obama townhall event tomorrow afternoon, and perhaps Clinton on Monday if she's here.  I'm, I think, #15 or so on the waiting list for the O event, so crossing my fingers.  Could be fun.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 03:39:08 PM EST
You can forget your number and sell it on ebay because they are checking your record to see if you belong to any lefty, international blog...  (;

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.
by metavision on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 03:49:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nah, it'd be a good time, although I hear the Secret Service (probably understandably) is getting quite militant about checking people before his events these days.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 03:52:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, it finally happened. I was fairly certain I couldn't be that lucky to walk untouched by crime in Johannesburg.

Got mugged on my way to the supermarket.

It was already getting dark while I was walking alongside a major road. Suddenly someone overtakes me. That was the first odd thing - I walk fast, I overtake other people, not the other way around. But well, then it was too late.  The guy turns, blocks my path, I hear a click, and there is a knife in his hand and a demand for my phone. A split second hesitation if I should dart sideways on the road - but then decide not to and follow what I've been taught. Just do what is asked, don't make eye contact, tell calmly what you're going to do.

I don't care about my phone. It was the cheapest model and I don't have a contract. There was less than 15 Rand (less than 1.50 Euro) credit left on it. I gave him the phone and asked if I could keep the SIM card. He said, "Fuck you" while he was already walking away. I guess that was a no.

I generally don't take anything of value with me when I walk after sunset - except for my phone and 20 Rand of contingency money. But today I was carrying my 1800 Rand worth broadband antenna in a plastic back and my bank card (separately and outside my wallet) with me for my shoppings. Could've been worse.

The biggest loss is the 70+ SMSes of my girlfriend where she tells she loves me. And the hazzle to get a new phone is an irritant.

But well. I'm fine, unharmed, and a little wiser. I hope the guy will feel bad about it one day.

That's it.

by Nomad (Bjinse) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 04:21:59 PM EST
I'm just glad to see you're safe.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 04:29:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Could have been worse. Time to start backing up your SIM ....
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 04:31:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I´m sorry to hear that, Nomad, because you also lose hope and trust, but I´m really glad you were calm and in control.

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.
by metavision on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 04:53:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thankfully it was just a phone and you're alright.  You'll just have to have her make up all the SMSes.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 05:14:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks for all the love and concern; it's touching me.

I had a good night, nothing restless, no bad dreams. But metavision is right: I've lost something of trust, I'm not as eager to go walking that part of town and feel more motivated to get a car.

by Nomad (Bjinse) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 04:11:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Only read about your experience now. Good to hear that you got unhurt out of this experience and that you were able to sleep. Sometimes, despite trusting one still needs to be careful. Take care!
by Fran on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 08:53:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I've never been mugged (knocking on wood), but, yeah, the loss of trust doesn't surprise me.  Muggings are pretty common in this part of the DC area, and we do have people breaking into cars at my apartment complex pretty frequently, looking for iPods and stereos to sell.  (There's a crack den a few blocks away, apparently, so that would explain the break-ins for valuable items.)  But the best thing to do is to stay calm, do as they tell you, and hope for the best.  At the end of the day, you're worth more than a phone, so you nailed it.

If you've got friends there nearby, it might be a very good idea to travel in a group, or perhaps call for a ride, if you're going to be out late, though.  If you get word that muggings are pretty there, you might want to speak with the police about getting more frequent patrolling in the area, too.  I'm not sure how much good it'll do, since, in my case, the cops are usually concerned with preventing violent crime on the other side of the river, but it can't hurt.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 11:18:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If you get word that muggings are pretty there

Change that to "...pretty common there...."

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 11:22:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I was well aware that the street I was walking on passed a corner which is notorious for "smash-and-grabs" (windows of cars waiting for a traffic sign getting smashed and valuables snatched off the seat). It's a patch of green nearby a viaduct with no lights - a perfect place to quickly disappear. I was just walking on the other side of the street. Didn't help me this time - but I've walked that stretch of road dozens of time in 2007, also after nightfall. But then I was always still on guard - and yesterday I had pretty much dropped it...

Generally, crime in Jozi appears somewhat migratory to me - because intensified police actions are migratory. The business district is getting cleaned up, and notorious Hillbrow is following. The area where I live seems to be on the rise: it's full of careless students with enough money to live outside the townships. It's also the new academic year - also a period with higher risk.

Less than 30 minutes later after I had "redistributed" my phone, near the street where I stay, there was a massive police raid. My friends told me today that the area appears currently heavily targeted by the police.

But it's good advice. I'll be asking for some more car pooling in the meantime and will just swim more on campus to get my exercise...

by Nomad (Bjinse) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 12:13:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Where were you?
by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 12:16:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Crossing on Empire St just before Barry Hertzog - there's a (new?) Pick 'n Pay in the nearby building. I was walking back from Wits, planning to do my shoppings and then get home by a cab. If I had done the smarter thing, I'd have taken a taxi for the 500 meters in between...
by Nomad (Bjinse) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 03:16:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hey Nomad, I just saw this, so sorry to hear it happened, but yes, it could've been a lot worse.  I've lost a couple of phones to bag-snatchers and it sucks.

Obligatory SA crime story:  The one time I got mugged there, the guy beat the crap out of me, I was covered with bruises and had headaches for weeks from where he hit me in the head.

Obligatory USA crime story:  But I know (personally) half a dozen people who've been killed in robberies or attempted robberies in the States, so it could all obviously be worse.

You handled it exactly right.

by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 12:15:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In case I don't have a chance, I'll be going to Bulgaria again on Monday and may only be intermittently online for the next fortnight.

Be good, and Nomad, be careful !!

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 06:18:08 PM EST
You didn't say the beer was THAT good....

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 07:06:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, the beer is awful. I'm seriously considering giving my liver a rest whilst I'm over there.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 06:08:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Always a good plan...

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 06:17:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I gather fatigue is now universal?

Obama 67%, Clinton 32% in the Washington State caucus, at 48% reporting.

Obama 69%, Clinton 30% in the Nebraska caucus, at 73% reporting.

Huckabee takes Kansas, gets 60% of vote, McCain 24%, Paul 11%.

Drew, ATinNM, where are you guys?

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 08:49:37 PM EST
I'm right here.  Yeah, this was a surprise ass-kicking in Washington.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 09:05:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Last poll out of Washington had the race at 50-45% in Obama's favor, so a 35-point win can hardly be spun as "expected".

And Jessie Jackson didn't win Washington, I'd guess. ;)

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 09:07:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's a caucus and Obama performs better at those, because the intensity of the support for him is higher than that for Hillary. Intensity and breadth of support can be disconnected.

My working thesis, it's a bit bland, but some people don't seem to get it, so maybe it's not so bland.

I expect Clinton also to lose Lousiana big, and probably also Maine tomorrow, so she's going to come out of this weekend about 50-60 pledged delegates behind.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 09:13:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Louisiana is supposed to be closer than the other two, and the delegates could be skewed because of how the congressional districts are chopped up.

I don't expect him to win Maine, but, if he does, it'll be a very nice add-on for them.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 09:18:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, and, if you believe Clinton, Obama wins caucuses because her people have to work.

Blacks and kids don't work, or something.  And you know how many of them there are in Nebraska.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 09:19:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes. That's some pretty thoughtless spin. Can't see how it will help Clinton in any way.

The reason is psychological, and it's pretty basic psychology. Caucusing is just a bigger investment, requiring higher motivation. The people who back Clinton have a bit less of that -- they're just not sure about Obama.

So Obama is also going to beat his poll numbers in Maine, I think, by about 30% (e.g. if he's polling 40 he'll get 54).

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 09:29:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It could be.  I do sense that, as Obama gains followers, they tend to be pretty dedicated.  I don't sense the same from Clinton people.

Yeah, I don't get the spin either.  But, as Matt Taibbi pointed out, you can send anything up the flag pole, and these dopey reporters will recite it.

Example: "The 'surge' is working."

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 09:35:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
An alternative hypothesis is that Obama's ground game is better. But unless Clinton is doing something fundamentally different in Maine than she was doing in all previous caucuses, that's also going to be the same.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 09:48:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The important variable, though, could be regional.  It's in New England, where she's stronger.

Now, granted, Obama tends to outperform the polls in caucus states.  In fact, I think he has done so in all caucus states and most, if not all, primary states.

I think the story is that, if Obama continues on this pace, he can finish off the race in Ohio and Texas.  He just got the endorsement of the big paper in Cleveland, but he was polling at 19% last I checked against Hillary's 48%.  That's an unbelievably steep hill to climb.  Texas -- again, last I checked -- was at 48-38% for Clinton, although she was down 3pts and Obama was up 21.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 09:57:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Looking at the exit polls, Louisiana seems to have split straight down racial lines.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 09:23:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
At 10%, Clinton has 38% to Obama 52%.

Rather less for Clinton than the exits suggested. Early voting for Edwards, a lot?

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 09:53:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
At 14% reporting:

Obama 54%
Clinton 37%

Where'd the other 9-10% go?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 09:58:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As stated, I would guess at early voting for Edwards.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 10:00:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Per fabooj at BooMan:

Update 15: Most of New Orleans, All of Baton Rouge, Shreveport, Lafayette, and Alexandria Have Not Yet Reported

I don't know if that's true.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 10:02:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
At 18% on both sides:

Dems

Obama 54%
Clinton 37%

Reps

Huckster 46%
St. John 37%
Mittster 9%
Paul 5%

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 09:58:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Huckster and McCain are about even in Washington, with Ron Paul a close third.

Could Huckabee stun everyone?

MSNBC just called Louisiana for Obama.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 10:05:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Apparently ClusterHuck would need to win 85% of everything left. So - not going to happen, at a guess.

But it gives Huckabooby some interesting leverage for a claim on the Veep seat.

Even more interesting is trying to imagine someone willing to run with McCain. One guess would be Lieberman, in a silly and theatrical attempt to split the Dems.

But it's so very hard to imagine St NovoCain sharing a ticket with anyone who makes any strategic sense at all. The Rs just aren't that unified - anything but, in fact.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 10:26:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Lieberman has ruled it out, but that probably doesn't mean very much.

It would be cool, and not totally unexpected, if McCain got some total loser like Rick Santorum or George Allen to run as veep.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 10:31:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He won't get Allen, especially not if Obama's the nominee.  The "Macaca Moment" ruined it for ol' Felix.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 11:04:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Precisely.  And it also buys Dems some time, because McCain is apparently taking Huck's move very seriously.

For Huck's success, it allows him a shot to consolidate the social conservatives -- a group with whom St John is very weak.  That's his opening on the Veep slot.  My sense is he has not promised it to Huck.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 11:01:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
i have a nasty hunch mac will hustle rudy in on his coattails, if he wins, as VP or worse, AG.

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 11:27:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Rudy is an obvious AG choice for him, but putting Rudy in as Veep will cause nothing short of an open rebellion in the GOP, because it'll completely alienate the social conservatives.  That's why Huckster's still in the picture.  He's doing the same thing Edwards did in 2004: Stick around and let the other guy know, "Hey, you need me."

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 11:29:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Turnout in the Democratic primary in Lousiana is more than twice as high as turnout for the Republican primary. Open caucus on both sides.

(State went to Bush in '04)

Lousiana is going to be solid blue territory in the general election.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 10:44:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Washington State update

Dems (87% reporting)

Obama: 68%
Clinton: 31%

Reps (16% reporting)

St. John: 27%
Huckster: 26%
Paul: 21%
Mittster: 16%

Dead heat. Not-so-surprising surprise showing for Paul. Is Washington winner takes all?

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 10:07:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeesh, it would be quite a rebellion if Huckabee swept everything away tonight.  I don't know if these are winner-take-alls, though.

Feel the Huckaboom!

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 10:08:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Washington is complicated!

Bloomberg.com: U.S. Elections

Washington Feb. 9 Dem caucus -- 97 delegates. Caucus. Modified Caucus. Rep caucus -- 40 delegates. Winner take all by CD, proportional primary. Closed caucus. (NOTE: there are also primaries on Feb. 19)
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 10:18:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, they're bizarre on that side of the country. ;)

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 10:20:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Huckabee surges to 27% (well... 1 percentage point), McCain crashes to 23%. Big mo for 'uncommitted', up to 11% from 9%. At 37% reporting.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 10:21:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nice!

Obama's takes 90% of the vote in the Virgin Islands, so he may well get all three delegates instead of the 2-1 split.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 11:05:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Huckabee and McCain are too close to call in Louisiana.  It's "too early to call" in the Dem ones, meaning they're just waiting for results to confirm the exit polls.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 09:24:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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