by afew
Thu Mar 20th, 2008 at 06:38:42 AM EST
A wire on Terra Daily appears to give the lie to conventional wisdom on GHG emissions reduction and economic growth. You know, green policies mean no or negative growth, growth requires no restrictions on business, the US cannot thrive without CO2, Kyoto is "not in America's interest", etc...
Reducing Carbon Emissions Could Help US Economy
A national policy to cut carbon emissions by as much as 40 percent over the next 20 years could still result in increased economic growth, according to an interactive website that reviews 25 of the leading economic models used to predict the economic impacts of reducing emissions. "As Congress prepares to debate new legislation to address the threat of climate change, opponents claim that the costs of adopting the leading proposals would be ruinous to the U.S. economy. The world's leading economists who have studied the issue say that's wrong - and you can find out for yourself," said Robert Repetto, professor in the practice of economics and sustainable development at the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies who created the site.
OK, the Yale site does meta-analysis using various macro-economic models, so caveat emptor. But those who predict disaster for the American economy in the case of restrictive environmental policies also claim to base their prophecies on economic models, so it seems to me it's tit for tat.
There's a questions page where you can vary your assumptions about future events and the probable effects of policy, and the site provides GDP forecasts based on your choices. Go along and play with it, or just catch the summary below the fold:
Growth rates of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) have been 3 percent per year over recent decades. With emissions reduced by 40 percent below projected business-as-usual trends, even under most pessimistic assumptions the GDP would grow 2.4 percent a year, reaching $23 trillion by 2030, according to the website's predictions. Under the most favorable assumptions, GDP would rise slightly above 3 percent a year.
And note this:
"The website shows that even under the most unfavorable assumptions regarding costs, the U.S. economy is predicted to continue growing robustly as carbon emissions are reduced," said Repetto. "Under favorable assumptions, the economy would grow more rapidly if emissions are reduced through national policy measures than if they are allowed to increase as in the past."
Whodda thunk? There must surely be something wrong with their models...
