The Zimbabweans have four presidential candidates to choose from. We all know Bob. He has been in charge of the country since April 1980, when the country became independent, and he has been "winning" every held presidential election. As it is Zimbabwean policy that people should retire after holding a job for 25 years, Mugabe is only slightly overdue.

The largest opposition party, the MDC, came to the scene with a bang in the parliamentary elections in 2000 and took 57 of the 120 available seats (total of 150). Two years later, the MDC president, Morgan Tsvangirai, was the closest ever to defeating Mugabe, despite the fact that the odds were stacked against him and Mugabe was already rigging merrily away.

Tsvangirai

Sadly, the party irrecoverably split into two factions after the 2005 parliamentary elections - were the party lost seats, keeping only 41. The smaller faction is led by Arthur Mutambara and remains at odds with the bigger, Tsvangirai-led faction even today. Making matters worse, there has now appeared also a third faction campaigning specifically for parliamentary seats - fracturing the opposition party even further. Although Tsvangirai in all practical senses still leads the party, (perceived) splits do not help its stature. If it were just Tsvangirai, Mugabe wouldn't have much to worry about.

But it is the third presidential candidate, the dark horse, that is really spicing things up and whose name is on many persons' lips: Simba Makoni. What makes Makoni so interesting is because he has defected from Mugabe's Zanu PF party and announced his independent candidacy in a burst of international surprise - only early February this year. The groundswell since his announcement and during his ultra-short campaign time has been considerable.

Mugabe, after three weeks of total silence, has been frothing against Simba Makoni in his usual way. The standard accusations have been flying: he's a western pawn to bring ruin to Zimbabwe! Not sure if that worked - the country is in ruins already and everyone but Mugabe and cronies seem to know this. He has compared Makoni to a prostitute. Same old, same old.

Makoni

Makoni has historically also been at odds with Mugabe - he left his government position of Finance minister in 2002 after a row over financial policy directions. That gives him some, not many, points in my book. More importantly: he has captured the people's imagination - also the crucially important rural areas. The little anecdotal evidence I have also points at this direction. He has the looks too and is apparently the only candidate who can dress. He's further backed by the small Mutambara faction of the MDC, but has received the endorsement of only a few, and lightweights at that, of the Zanu PF party. On the other side, some tongues are wagging that he's there to split up the opposition vote (as if the MDC isn't doing a stellar job on that), or that he's a pretender to ensure Zanu PF keeps in power. I've seen no indications of either.

The fourth candidate, another independent, is so unknown to me that I only found about him just as I was reading up. I only have his name: Langton Toungana.

The presidential election is a two tier race: if no candidate gets an absolute majority, a second round of voting will be needed. A second round would be Mugabe's ultimate nightmare - I'm pretty sure Mugabe will give his very worst to make certain the second round will never happen.

But what will really happen is anyone's guess at this point. Hope has long left the country: people are waiting "for the king to die". The one commodity that remains left for Zimbabweans is their sense of humour.

The array of tricks by Mugabe's Zanu PF to block and disrupt political rallies are being documented, as best as people can, at Sokwanele. Food droppings are again in swing (with thanks to the WFP?) - a well honed trick by Zanu PF to buy their voters and threaten opposition voters with starvation - although it may not work as well as it used to because, as said, the economic ruin is almost complete. Even while there is less violence reported compared to 2002 and 2005, intimidation and convoluted voter registration have been observed by Human Rights Watch. On the upside is that the rejection of the Zanu PF by the Zimbabweans has become more and more open:

The Zimbabwe Situation

"Who are they (Tsvangirai and Makoni) to  say Mugabe should go? What
did they do for Zimbabwe? Nhapwa zvadzo dzinosveta ropa dzakatumwa
nemuvengi. That is what Makoni and Tsvangirai are doing," Msika said,
likening them to ticks sucking the blood of their host.
This was  followed by a deafening silence from the villagers.
While admitting that "we are going through hard times", Msika said it
was not possible to change leaders.
"Changing of leadership like the way we change our shirts is a luxury
we cannot afford . . . Do not vote sellouts, renegades and puppies."
He blamed all the economic hardships on Britain, America, and the
International Monetary Fund which he said had withdrawn their credit
facilities.
But before Msika could conclude his speech, incensed villagers walked
off in protest. They told The Standard they could no longer afford to wait
to hear "such lies" when they had to do chores "to  fend for our children".
"These are the same old Zanu PF lies. They shift the blame onto others
yet they are responsible for the ruin of this country," villagers said.
"We don't eat sovereignty. We know the liberation war history; we do
not need to be told that. We want to hear how they are going to mend things
if we vote for them again."

Even while it is remarkable these things are expressed in the open - in a political climate that has been historically deadly for dissident opinions - Mugabe has been rejected for already a long time and he has still won every single time. This week, the MDC claimed the order had been given to print some 3 million unnecessary ballots:

The Zimbabwe Situation

Tsvangirai said they had information that ZEC had ordered nine
million ballot papers for each of the elections, despite the fact that ZEC
had announced only 5.9 million people had registered to vote.
Tsvangirai showed journalists a letter allegedly written by ZEC,
asking the printers to print the postal ballot papers.
"What we are witnessing is an attempt by Zanu PF and Robert Mugabe to
try and rig the elections," said Tsvangirai. "Uniformed forces, including
the Zimbabwe Defence Forces, the police and prison services are not more
that 100 000 when combined."
"We don't have any forces on duty in foreign lands. The diplomatic
community has also shrunk dramatically over the years. So who does ZEC want
to give the 600 000 postal ballots to?"

With 5.9 million voters, 3 million extra votes would guarantee an absolute winner. Obviously Zanu PF immediately denied the allegation and then proceeded to arrest the South African pilot that was meant to fly Tsvangirai through the country in a chopper - because proper roads to the rural areas have long deteriorated. The truth of the matter? I can't help you.

Then there is gerrymandering and there is an acute shortage of polling stations for the cities (dominantly anti-Mugabe). Perhaps the dead will vote, too. Mugabe is dealing the chips - anything goes.

A latest poll that was floating on the internet has Tsvangirai in the lead and Makoni at a disappointing 8 - 9 %. Whoever did the poll is a mystery to me, and so is its reliability. There are analysts who argue the case that the board has changed. The split in Zanu PF is now in the open and even with a Mugabe win, he will have to deal with a new dynamic.

There are perhaps two more issues to consider. Firstly, ethnicity - a hidden elephant in a lot of what is reported about Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe is no different than many other African nations whose borders have been designated by the colonial powers - effectively lumping several major ethnicities together. For Zimbabwe, these are the Shona and the Ndebele people - the latter being a people who branched off from the Zulu during Shaka's rule. Mugabe is Shona. Things are further complicated by the fact that the Shona are split up in powerful clans, of which the largest ones, the Karanga and the Zezuru clans, practically dominate the executive at several levels. There are tensions between those clans, but the Ndebele people have been marginalized the most during Mugabe's long reign.

Secondly, a large wildcard in all of this, is the military. Most of the brass, well cushioned by Mugabe, still backs Mugabe, and the generals have openly declared that if anyone else than Mugabe will win, the Constitution will be set aside - effectively implying a coup. The soldiers, whose salaries were recently boosted to 1.5 billion Zim dollars (that is, some 60 USD baring no further inflation) per month, are reportedly less impressed. But put this in the mix, and speculations on a next "Kenya" are already thriving.

We will see the outcome of all these speculations, because I don't view them as much more, in some 48 hours from now.