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Party at The EIA - Booze Flowing Like Water over Niagara Falls

by nb41 Sun Mar 9th, 2008 at 05:50:53 PM EST

Pardon the title, as Booze may not be the ONLY explanation of this recent emanation from the U.S. Energy Information Agency - their March 4 update on their energy predictions for the future:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html (download the .pdf). But, as acute intoxication is always (or usually) a decent excuse for screwing up, it's as good as any...at least for some. Never happened to me....ya sure you betcha....

It just seems to me that their crystal ball(s) are either non-existent (as in, it sometimes takes a bit of courage to tell some semblance of truth to power) or really foggy. Or else these EIA types (especially the ones who clear stuff for release) really are Borgish drones that are incredibly inebriated, buzzed out, seeing rainbows and other fantastic and wonderful colors and shapes, or maybe afflicted with a bad case of untreated syphilitic brain rot...Or maybe the soma is just in the office water, and the coffee is de-caf with Prozac and Valium as the active ingredients..

Actually, many of the hard working people at EIA do their thing, forward their analysis up the food chain, where things get diverted to REWRITE and where an approved and certified set of politburo types massages the predictions into conformity with the Bu$h administration and/or their clients/sponsors. And out pops the yearly EIA predictions, which companies, Federal, state and local governments and other governments use to make future decisions, perhaps not the sole source for this information, but an important one.

Anyway, try getting this report -http://www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/Wind/2008.htm and this data - http://www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/Wind/2008_data.htm to jive. Notice those nicely increasing exponential graphs for wind turbine installations. Up, Up and Away....And then try to square those with "Renewables" in the EIA.... well, they don't square up at all. Furthermore, where is all this new oil production in the US supposed to happen, overcoming depletion and then some? I guess Thunderhorse is going to finally come riding in to the rescue (at 3 billion barrels, less than 2 to 3 months of the U.S. oil seemingly never-ending demand http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=40911), and there will be no such thing as bad weather in the Gulf this year (2007 could be classified as dodging that proverbial 50 caliber hurricane bullet - like http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_Tension-leg_Platform and worse never happened - oh wait, it did....http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thunder_Horse). Or ever again.....

It is unfortunate that the blinders and/or muzzles seem to be on so many governmental analysts who attempt to provide a guestimate into the future, energy-wise. People, companies and governments have to make decisions about policies and investments now that will affect the future, and also about future investments, which will also AFFECT the future. And what about climate change consequences for this EIA scenario? After reading it, James Hansen of NASA is going to be left hairless...as he will be pulling out what's left of the rootstock after reading this EIA....resemblance of bovine derived fertilizer. But maybe he has thicker skin than we think is humanly possible....

Just a mere 7 months to go before The Evil Shrub & Co gets some walking papers. I sure hope his psuedo-spawn that goes by the name of McCain doesn't get his chance to screw up the world even more than Bu$h did/is/will. Who knows, maybe $hrubbie and his "succubus sidekick" VP (Jon Stewart's words, not mine see "Crude Awakening" at http://preview.tinyurl.com/232swk) can visit The Hague for a trial or two in 2009....



Thunder Horse

Great diary, thanks!

Don't fight forces, use them R. Buckminster Fuller.

by rg (leopold dot lepster at google mail dot com) on Sun Mar 9th, 2008 at 07:03:10 PM EST
Nice pictures.


by nb41 on Mon Mar 10th, 2008 at 02:38:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Energy prices stable over the next 20 years. We're fine, then!

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Mar 9th, 2008 at 07:13:44 PM EST

They do it like this every year. So little imagination, too, aside from the enormous fiction embedded in their predictions.

As for those prices, they were truly channeling Jon Stewart in his point about oil....

Actually, while they were sleeping, its looks like their coal price prediction just morphed into more fertilizer, with the possible exception of certain Great Plains state, where the lignite is plentiful, but its over 1000 miles to the nearest barge. And the railroad companies really love coal...one of their most profitable items these days. It would be nice to replace that with wind turbines parts and components instead...


by nb41 on Mon Mar 10th, 2008 at 02:44:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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