I was preparing a diary on said turmoil, but events overtook me. Now I edited that draft into the "background" text below.

The Right reacts to the referendum victory

Fidesz could play its usual games: celebration, going into rhetorical hyperboles, and treating the government and PM as if they were illegal. But calls for new elections were muted - initially.

The idiots'-revolution wing of the local far-right delayed their next riot by one weekend, they staged it on 15 March (commemoration day of the 1848 Revolution). They again beat up two journalists, too, and in a funny moment, ignited two of their own with a badly aimed Molotov cocktail.

The PM and Socialists react to the referendum defeat

Immediately after polls closed, the PM went on television screens with a declaration. (A technical blunder some saw as symbolic cut off his voice for public TV viewers halfway in.) What Gyurcsány cooked up was as much tactially brilliant as it was an apparent strategic suicide.

The referendum called for an end of the doctor/hospital/tuition fees from next year. That wording ensured that the government lost its "this is a budget issue" [and thus barred from referendum] case before the consitutional court. But Gyurcsány declared on referendum night that he'll bring forward the restoration of the pre-fees status quo ante immediately -- without replacing the missing income from the fees.

Can the voter perceive any other message than "eat this, suckers!"? Such reformist arrogance will only alienate voters, a loss not balanced by outplaying the political opponent. The latter because no way Fidesz would have called for keeping the fees until the end of the year. Indeed Fidesz could respond only with a laundry list of waste spending (like new ministerial luxury cars), only (1) the sum of those was insufficient, (2) too many people remembered their own waste spending.

However, despite all the reformist talk from Gyurcsány, he and his party are more opportunist than dogmatic. And true enough, rhetoric began to change a week later.

Healthcare un-reform

The real big 'reform' issue was not the now abolished fees, but moving to a multi-insurer, partially privatised healthcare. The law prepared by the liberal-held healthcare ministry foresees 22 regional healthcare insurers to be offered to private buyers. The public purse would still be tapped: to finance provisions for basic services. Also, it was increasingly clear that some of the 22 regional units would not find a buyer, thus the state would have to run them...

The reform law was adopted by the parliamentary majority earlier this year, but is held up by a legal review, and it would be killed by another referendum later this year. So what to do?

The idea blurted out by Socialist faction leader Ildikó Lendvai was to maintain the reform law, but keep all 22 insurers in public hand!... The worst of both worlds for patients (you get the extra bureaucracy but no capital), but the best of both worlds for politics (you have your "reform" and referendums can't kill it).

This was enough for SzDSz leader János Kóka to threaten the end of the coalition. But, at a meeting ten days ago, the Socialist leadership calculated that their liberal partners won't risk new elections when polling well below 5%, and can thus be stepped over. What's more: they got the idea to save the boss by making unpopular SzDSz healthcare minister Ágnes Horváth the "fall guy". A bit funny when you look at the last polls:

The latest Szonda-Ipsos popularity poll from Népszabadság. The scale runs from 0 to 100 (thus overall opinion is positive only about the figurehead President). Healthcare minister Horváth is last -- directly preceded by the bosses, SzDSz chairman Kóka and PM Gyurcsány...

Liberals react to losses

Some liberal reactions to the referendum verged on insanity. Some pointed at the 15% vote against abolishing the fees as SzDSz's potential to grow much bigger (now they poll well below 5%). Some reminded of Fidesz's past libertarianism, and to the fact that the next referendum, a citizen's initiative, is not explicitely endorsed by Fidesz - from which they concluded that Fidesz will let it fail on low participation...

Less extreme rationalisations sought to see a high turnout of anti-government, or anti-Gyurcsány voters. During Gyurcsány's immediate-repeal-of-fees declaration, one SzDSz leader was caught on camera commenting that the voters "said you to fuck yourself!".

However, in the meantime, SzDSz had to be pre-occupied with itself.

Neoliberal yuppie János Kóka, until recently economy minister, won party chairmanship in a narrow election last year (I reported), defeating alternative-liberal Gábor Fodor, who is now environment minister. But via right-wing media, evidence for vote fraud emerged: "phantom delegates" voted in place of absent ones (I reported). A few days after the referendum, the internal party investigation report came out. It concluded there was fraud, one neither candidate knew about, but with a clincher.

While the right-wing media claimed that the phantom voters benefitted Kóka, the investigator concluded the opposite. This is more logical: the regional party leader accused as mastermind was openly pro-Fodor. But it emerged that both of the opposed claims are based on the testimonies of the very same people; while the alleged instigator wasn't asked. The investigator seemed a bit hasty in his conclusions.

János Kóka (left) and Gábor Fodor (right) on a photo from [origo]

But Kóka moved in for the kill, proclaimed that he was the wronged party, and thus no re-vote is needed. In the 12-member top party organ (known by the acronym üt), Kóka's supporters resorted to a nice trick. On 21 March, they brought in the following motion: "Should we deal with the question of whether to renew the party officers?" The vote was 7:4 against.

In response, the 4 Yes-voters declared the suspension of their üt membership. The four were Fodor and two supporters, plus respected MEP István Szent-Iványi, who argued that the party base and voters must be reassured. But the replacement voter exposures weren't over. First center-left daily Népszabadság received a photo showing Fodor's campaign manager, who was not a delegate, voting (he admitted voting for a resolution in place of his - absent delegate - father, and resigned from the party immediately). But at the same time, the SzDSz investigator uncovered further phantom voter cases from his own (pro-Kóka) region.

So, next week, the party leadership agreed to an exceptional gathering of the delegates, and Fodor et al re-joined the üt.

Breaking up coalitions

There is some history to this coalition break-up.

Until now, the left and right-wing in Hungary was rather different in how breakups played out. Both right-wing governing coalitions since 1990 broke up, but the main parties managed to stay in power by also breaking up the deserting party itself, too.

During the thre terms of the 'left' (1994-8, 2002-6, 2006-present), the liberals constantly discussed at what point they should leave the coalition, but in the end, SzDSz stepped across every line drawn by its leaders, bowing to Socialist blackmail. It is a real shame that they didn't manage it back in 1997 or 1998, when the Socialists grew too cocksure in future election victory and arrogant to revive an unpopular Danube river dam project. (Back then, SzDSz wasn't a 5% neolib party.) But there were several further occasions.

With this history, maybe the Socialists didn't even take Kóka's first threats seriously. But instead of being immobilised by the legitimacy crisis, the two wings of the liberals pulled together for a show of unity.