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Europe.Is.Doomed (5) - No such thing as good news from Europe

by Jerome a Paris Thu May 15th, 2008 at 09:26:51 AM EST

German growth spurt powers eurozone

A dramatic German growth spurt powered a reacceleration in eurozone growth at the start of this year that contrasted with the sharp US slowdown.

(...) However, economists agreed that the German first quarter figures were distorted by exceptional factors (...) Holger Schmieding at Bank of America said Germany’s rebound was “quite an achievement” given the country was until recently regarded as the sick-man of Europe. But he added that “the good news is unlikely to last”.

Yet another simple rule: bad economic news from the US or the UK are "one-offs" or "cyclical"; but the same applies to good news from Europe. Conversely, good news from the Anglo economies are spontaneously seen as signs of intrinsic dynamism or resilience, while bad news from Europe are just a normal reflection of their decline or rigidity.

Part of the Europe.Is.Doomed series


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Surge in exports lifts French GDP

The French economy grew by an above forecast 0.6 per cent in the first three months of 2008, powered by a surge in exports, proving the resilience so far of the eurozone's second largest economy in the face of a global slowdown.

France's rate of growth in the first quarter was twice the 0.3 per cent recorded for the last three months of 2007 and well above economists' consensus forecasts of 0.4 per cent, according to official figures published on Thursday.

Insee, the statistical agency, also increased its figure for gross domestic product growth last year from 1.9 per cent to 2.1 per cent, following 2.4 per cent in 2006.

Note that in France's case, there is a fallback position: growth was made possible by Sarkozy's early reforms (but of course the effort must be sustained and amplified). That's been Sarkozy and Fillon's loud argument all of today in the French media.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu May 15th, 2008 at 09:31:28 AM EST
Yet another simple rule: bad economic news from the US or the UK are "one-offs" or "cyclical"; but the same applies to good news from Europe. Conversely, good news from the Anglo economies are spontaneously seen as signs of intrinsic dynamism or resilience, while bad news from Europe are just a normal reflection of their decline or rigidity.

And that is on top of Europe starting any comparison with the major handicap of not cheating as much with the inflation rate.
That UK/US should have any period below Europe in such a rigged game should be damning for their system...

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Thu May 15th, 2008 at 10:00:56 AM EST
which has been taken on sufferance into the EU.

This may be anecdotal, but I can say that now is a very good time to be looking for a job in my corner (non-English speaking) of the EU, where I'll be moving back in two months.

Can't say the same about where I reside now (US).

Suspect that's not cyclical, either. It's structural, and we're seeing the structures laid bare as we watch the economic news each day.

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Thu May 15th, 2008 at 10:17:19 AM EST
Things are not all sunshine and lollypops on that certian island, but its not as bad as it could be, ie in the US.

Alot of the mess that is being experienced in the US is due to bad regulation (or lack of regulation). Guess where 80% of the UKs business regulation comes from?

I keep making the point that while there are similiarities between the UK and US situations, there are massive differences.

Anyway, the business community on that certian island should be happy about the rebound in Germany and France and the rest of the EU...their main trading partners.

by EvilEuropean (evileuropean@googlemail.com) on Thu May 15th, 2008 at 10:56:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Things are not even slightly sunshine and lollipops in the UK. The chair-thing of the BoE was quoted today as saying that happy fun times are over, inflation is going up, and there may even be a recession.

Also - Gordon is planning a dustbin tax to encourage recycling.

Aside from the non-acknowledgement of some specifically Anglo issues, there's absolutely no optimism or positivity in the UK press. To be fair it's rare that the UK media are positive or optimistic about anything, but it seems to be even worse than usual.

If I had to describe the national mood it would probably be sullen resentful despair.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu May 15th, 2008 at 01:58:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Most US regs are the products of Ronnie Ray-gun, and Dame Maggie swallowed and channeled Ronbo whole, so it is no surprise the US and the UK are reaping the whirlwinds.  The US problems transcend regulations, though.  They are systemic.  The entire economic, social, and political structure of the country is based on the automobile, which in turn is based on cheap fuel.  The US is heading for $5 gas and the great unraveling, and there is no infrastructure in place to absorb the shock.
by rifek on Fri May 16th, 2008 at 10:36:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Germany too was until recently regarded as the sick man of Europe? Along with France? Italy? Who else am I forgetting?

It's not a continent, it's a sick bay. Lemme outta here!

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu May 15th, 2008 at 11:11:34 AM EST
It's just that they take turns to be the worst of the kind...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu May 15th, 2008 at 11:25:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You can tell they're mollycoddled by national health insurance and rigid employment protection. Always off sick.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu May 15th, 2008 at 12:05:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, pretty much any nation that did not follow US economic fundementalism was considered the 'sick man of....'. Of course the US has been a roaring success, so successful that the UK is expected to have a higher gdp per capita than the USA for the first time since the 19th century.
by EvilEuropean (evileuropean@googlemail.com) on Thu May 15th, 2008 at 12:54:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
on the FT's website:



In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu May 15th, 2008 at 05:02:51 PM EST
Le Monde.fr : La croissance s'est accélérée dans la zone euro au premier trimestre Growth has accelerated in the euro zone in the first quarter
La croissance a accéléré au premier trimestre 2008 dans la zone euro, atteignant 0,7 % comparé à 0,4 % le trimestre précédent, selon une première estimation, jeudi 15 mai, de l'office européen des statistiques Eurostat. Ce rebond est plus fort que celui prévu par les analystes interrogés par l'agence d'informations financières TFN, qui attendaient seulement 0,5 %. Sur un an, le produit intérieur brut (PIB) a augmenté de 2,2 %.Growth has accelerated in the first quarter of 2008 in the eurozone, reaching 0.7% compared to 0.4% the previous quarter, according to a preliminary estimate , Thursday, May 15, the European statistics office Eurostat. This rebound is stronger than expected by analysts surveyed by the agency financial information TFN, waiting only 0.5%. On a year, the gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 2.2%.
Le regain de croissance semble avoir été soutenu notamment par la robustesse étonnante de l'Allemagne : la première économie de la zone euro a annoncé jeudi que son PIB avait crû de 1,5 % au premier trimestre, après 0,3 % au quatrième de 2007.The resurgence of growth seems to have been supported in particular by the surprising strength of Germany: the first euro-area economy announced Thursday that its GDP had grown by 1.5% in first quarter 0.3% after the fourth in 2007.
Mais d'autres pays européens, dont la France, ont annoncé jeudi des chiffres de croissance en hausse. Beaucoup ont fait état de niveaux élevés d'investissements des entreprises.But other European countries, including France, announced Thursday growth figures on the rise. Many have reported high levels of business investment.

Except for the title, which I had to rewrite, the English text of this multilingual contribution was auto-generated by Google using someone's tribext Firefox extension.

A language is a dialect with an army and navy.

by marco on Thu May 15th, 2008 at 09:47:37 PM EST


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