Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.

Tuesday Open Thread

by In Wales Tue May 6th, 2008 at 12:35:01 PM EST

Fill this space with news.
Yours, or anyone else's


Display:
Oil breaks $122 on forecasts for further rises
By Terry Macalister, The Guardian

Oil prices broke new records today when they passed the $122 a barrel mark, bringing renewed fears of rising costs for consumers and damage to the wider economy.

A new prediction from Goldman Sachs that oil prices could rise to $150 to $200 within two years provided much of the buying impetus on Tuesday, although production problems in northern Iraq and Nigeria plus a further weakening of the dollar against the euro also helped push prices up by $2.

Arjun Murti, an oil analyst at Goldman, said in a research note that prices were in the grip of a "super spike" but one which would ultimately force demand to fall sharply. Tim Evans, a counterpart at Citigroup, predicted prices could as easily fall to $40 a barrel as rise to $200 because supplies were "comfortable".

by Magnifico on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 12:55:56 PM EST
It reached $122.49 thus far. In Euros, it reached €78.6/barrel.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 01:07:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
After a crash course in Jeromonomics, it is interesting to read stories like these, especially the statement by the analysts.

Member of the Anti-Fabulousness League since 1987.
by Ephemera on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 01:33:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Don't worry, the leader of the free world (tm) is working on a solution:


"If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles." Sun Tzu
by Turambar (sersguenda at hotmail com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 03:02:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I almost want to hit the play button in hopes of having a laugh, but I just can't watch him anymore.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 03:08:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I just saw him on TV asking the Burmese junta to allow the US to come in and help with the cyclone.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 03:09:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Help with the cyclone?  That mean he's going to wreck whatever the cyclone left behind?

Should we start a pool on whether his performance will be better or worse than after Katrina?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 03:22:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
omg.  The book I am currently reading is really messing with my head.  It is simply about how the free-market model of the Chicago School requires juntas and economic collapse and natural disasters to enable its implementation.  Shock.  Wait until people are bloody desperate and come in with your plan to bail our their economy.  With just a few little strings attatched.  Sheesh, 3rd world, military junta & cyclone all in one bag?!  It's like Christmas for these people.

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
by poemless on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 03:32:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The only problem is that this junta is beholden to the PRC, not the US.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 03:42:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
At this point the US itself is pretty beholden to the PRC.  At any rate this is not about the US specifically.  It's about free-market ideology and trans-national corporations.  All very China-friendly.

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
by poemless on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 03:48:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My friend who is doing ethnological work in southern Burma says that the ones who might be applying the Washington consensus are the opposition party, not necessarily the junta...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 06:32:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And you can trace it back before Strauss, to Synarchy.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Fri May 9th, 2008 at 04:44:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'd remind Burma of Bill Maher's very correct comment:

On your watch, we've lost almost all of our allies, the surplus, four airliners, two trade centers, a piece of the Pentagon and the City of New Orleans. Maybe you're just not lucky. I'm not saying you don't love this country. I'm just wondering how much worse it could be if you were on the other side.


Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 03:34:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I know.  I am at the point where nothing he says or does is funny to me.  It just activates the gag reflex and makes me feel angry and scared, the same way dogs growl and cower when a nasty person enters the room.

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
by poemless on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 03:12:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I hear ya on the gag reflex.  For me, though, the reaction is more like my reaction to someone in a Hummer nearly running me off the road.  "Could someone please pull that crazy &##(%$%&%&$% over?!"

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 03:18:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is seditious talk, Drew. You'll catch the attention of Dark Star. In the political expediency business, 'pulling someone over' has a deeper meaning. ;-)

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 03:35:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
By Dark Star, I mean the LatoT noitamrofnI ssenerawA program run by the ASN. I am sure they don't use a Reverse Finnish Notation decryption algorithm.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 03:42:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm afraid that all went way over my head.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 03:44:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Just as well ;-9

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 03:49:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Are you sure HP wasn't among the contractors that implemented it ?

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 06:33:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Saucy!

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:12:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Fair enough. I'd probably feel the same if he was the head of my government.
And it's more bizarre than funny anyway.

"If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles." Sun Tzu
by Turambar (sersguenda at hotmail com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 03:31:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In the meantime in NY:

Since then, the dollar has strengthened -- it closed at $1.55 on Monday -- and some economists believe that, even if it creeps down slightly, the dangers of a precipitous fall, at least against the euro, have subsided.

Economists point out that American policy makers, particularly Ben S. Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, have begun to voice concern about the dollar's fall and its inflationary effect in the United States, where a weak currency has increased the cost of oil and other imports for the American consumer.

These guys are great. The stock market doesn't know where to turn, so everything is fine now.

And that people worry about 'global imbalances' is sure to fix them without changing anything that's been going on for the past 20 years.

Rien n'est gratuit en ce bas monde. Tout s'expie, le bien comme le mal, se paie tot ou tard. Le bien c'est beaucoup plus cher, forcement. Celine

by UnEstranAvecVueSurMer (holopherne ahem gmail) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 05:47:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So, now the Swedish foreign minister Carl Bildt (with a past as PM and in the oil industry) mentioned peak oil on his blog. I talked about it with him last fall but was told I couldn't quote him verbatim, but I surely can translate his blog posts:    
   
   
   
119 dollar119 dollar
Nu på morgonen noteras oljepriset till en bit över 119 dollar per fat.

Hade någon nämnt en sådan siffra för några år sedan hade vederbörande knappast setts som riktigt seriös. Att tala om möjligheten av 100 dollar per fat var att antyda rena skräckscenarior.

Att dollarn i dessa dagar inte är vad dollarn var påverkar något, men faktiskt inte så mycket.

Många framtidsprognoser - också de som gäller klimatförändringar - utgår från en ständigt stigande produktion av inte minst olja.

Jag tror att det börjar bli dags att titta på de prognoserna med lite mer kritiska ögon.

Det är kanske så att vi nått den situation där det inte längre kommer att vara möjligt att påtagligt höja produktionen. Större delen av de oljeproducerande länderna har ju redan i dag fallande produktion.

Om så är fallet är det många kalkyler som måste förändras.

Men siffran 119 dollar per fat kan inte undgå att leda till reflektioner.

This morning the price of oil was noted as a bit above 119 dollars per barrel.

If someone had mentioned such a number a few years ago he would hardly have been considered really serious. Talking about the possibility of 100 dollar oil would've been implying scenarios of pure terror.

That the dollar these days isn't what it used to be affects it all somewhat, but actually not that much.

Many prognosises of the future - also those about climate change - assumes a constantly increasing production of for example oil.

I think the time has come to look at those prognosises with a bit more critical eyes.

It is maybe so that we have reached the point were we cannot considerably increase production anymore. Most of the oil producing countries do already have falling production.

If that is the case many calculations will have to change.

But the number 119 dollar per barrel cannot avoid leading to some reflections.


http://carlbildt.wordpress.com/2008/04/28/119-dollar/

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 06:31:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Wnet ot the Grand Designs show in london today. For those who've not seen the programme it's a self-build/renovation show that concentrates on people with ambitious or interesting design concepts.

From building a cob house with straw bales in a forest near london to renovating a castle in Tuscany.

There was a brilliant demonstration of eco building with cob and straw bales and I'm dying to have a go. Anyone know where's some cheap land ? I might try it in Bulgaria but I have a sneaky it might be against their building regs. How's the W of Ireland ? Central France looms again.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 01:20:21 PM EST
If there are no foundations you don't need planning permission in France.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 03:43:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But you'd still need to build on land with outline planning pemission, you couldn't just plonk it on agricultural land, could you ? Course amenities permitting (which may be problematic).

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 03:53:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, there are problems. Agricultural land, you can't build on. But there are people who build in woods, I'm not sure what the status is. If you can get a ruin, you can do pretty much what you like. Getting the amenities to secluded spots costs the earth, though.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 04:12:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Home now. House in chaos, Christopher apparently grumpy at being back: either the architecture isn't to his liking or there aren't enough people to admire him at home.

Now to download pictures and start getting some film developed.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 01:29:14 PM EST
It's probably that he's convinced his relatives are those people with the big eyes that they hold up in front of their faces. that flash lights at him.

you've separated him from all of those Japanese relatives he's met in the last few days.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 01:54:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Try playing him this.

You're clearly a dangerous pinko commie pragmatist.
by Vagulus on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 04:15:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Perhaps he misses the girls. They miss him.
No admiration, though. They haven't learned that yet, thank god.

Capitalism searches out the darkest corners of human potential, and mainlines them.
by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 01:41:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
dobranoc (but isn't it still early out where you are?)
by MarekNYC on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 01:46:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm writing a modest 15p paper. And yet getting that bibliography in order took me 3 hours, for only 20 entries... It must have been painful for your Inwales.

Do you guys use bibtex/latex? I just started -- really, as an excuse to make pauses -- and I feel like I'm learning how to walk. Pressing return doesn't quite feel the same anymore.

Rien n'est gratuit en ce bas monde. Tout s'expie, le bien comme le mal, se paie tot ou tard. Le bien c'est beaucoup plus cher, forcement. Celine

by UnEstranAvecVueSurMer (holopherne ahem gmail) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 01:29:53 PM EST
I wrote my thesis in LaTeX, but didn't use it since.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 01:37:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
LyX is a fairly painless way to get most of the power of LaTeX.  I've used it in Linux some, and I understand it also runs in Windows.

The blurker formerly known as ignorant bystander.
by b--- (budr at hughes net) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 03:33:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah it took forever and I still didn't manage to finish the referencing properly. I got told off for it and it is on my amendments to do list.  I haven't come across bibtex/latex. What have I been missing out on?
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 03:54:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
LaTeX is THE way to produce professional quality typeset publications on your PC.  It is not for the faint of heart, however.  It is very much from the old Unix mindset, where you're supposed to be at least as smart as the machine.  LaTeX is actually a comprehensive set of macros designed to, ahem, ease the pain of using TeX, an even more arcane computer typesetting program that is still probably the standard for such works.  This is going back to some of the giants who invented computer science.

The blurker formerly known as ignorant bystander.
by b--- (budr at hughes net) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 04:13:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Dare I ask what is wrong with M$ Word? (other than being inherently evil).

Actually I don't know what our papers were written on. I did the text and diagrams and somebody else dealt with formatting it all for submission.

by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 04:19:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Um, I'm probably not the one to make this case.  I'm not any good at LaTeX or Word either one.  This is what I understand from reading my betters.

CTAN: What are TeX, LaTeX, and friends?

With a word processors your text is places while you type it, referred to as "what you see is what you get." In contrast, TeX is a formatter: it separates the steps of entering the material and placing it on the page.

To see the difference, consider how a typical user of each system might start a new section. In a word processor a typical user might start that section by hitting <Enter> twice to get two lines of vertical space, typing "Section 1.2: New results", clicking to highlight that text, clicking to select a larger type size, clicking to select a new type style, and finally entering two more lines of vertical space. A typical user TeX user will type into a file the line "section{New results}". That is, a word processing user is formatting the text as they enter it, while the TeX user describes the meaning of the text and later TeX will format it.

Beginners like word processing but when they graduate to complex jobs the appeal fades. Word processing a twenty page technical article is hard; for instance, keeping the vertical space between sections uniform is error-prone, and so is making sure that all of the bibliographic entries follow the required format. In particular, very few people have both the knowledge and the eye to correctly lay out equations -- people often say their equations "just don't look right." That is, as a user becomes more experienced and knowledgable the TeX approach of having the typesetting done by the program becomes the better choice. (Some word processors offer as advanced features TeX-like facilities for organizing input text, although few users take advantage of them.)

The input is plain text. TeX's source files are portable to any computing platform. They are compact; for instance, all of the files for my 450 page textbook and 125 page answer supplement fit easily on one floppy disk. And, they integrate with other tools such as search programs.

The output can be anything. As with inputting, TeX's outputting step is separate from its typesetting. The TeX engine's results can be converted to a printer language such as PostScript or to PDF or HTML, or, probably, to whatever will appear in the future. And, the typesetting -- line breaks, etc. -- will be the same no matter where your output appears. (Did you know that word processing output depends on the printer's fonts, so that if you email your work to someone with a different printer then for them the line and page breaks are likely to come out differently?)

As I understand it, changing one or two lines can change the appearance of a paper from AMS standard to pick your favorite glossy magazine standard.

The blurker formerly known as ignorant bystander.

by b--- (budr at hughes net) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 05:06:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The faint of heart can use LyX or TeXmacs or scientific workplace or a number of other GUI frontpages to (La)TeX.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 04:41:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And I just discovered if you try to open a .tex file under Mac OS X , it opens it in an application called TeXshop which consists of a simple text editor (with syntax highlighting) with an interface to PDFTeX and a PDF viewer, which is all you really need from a TeX GUI.

BTW, pace TBG, TeX is not a programming language, it's a markup language. Anyone who can use HTML tags should be able to use TeX.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:26:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
TeX is Turing complete, though, unlike HTML...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:37:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's why HTML had to be augmented with JavaScript :-)

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 06:56:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Somebody must have installed this for you. My Mac OS X (several different versions) came without it, and I had to install TeX myself. The default when I click on a TeX file is to open it in TextEdit.

As for your second comment, I doubt anybody who can use HTML will be able to figure out how to use \expandafter... You comment applies more to LaTeX, than to TeX itself.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 07:04:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It must have come with the MacTeX distribution I installed.

One of the problems I often encounter is that I am not aware of all the programs that a given package will install.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 07:16:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's THE way if you're an uber-geek and want to produce something for Arxiv with lots of mathy symbols.

The rest of us use InDesign, which is an awful tool because it does fast WYSIWYG layout and makes your job easier rather than harder for 95% of all possible DTP applications.

Every so often someone points to a book and says 'Typeset entirely in LaTeX!' and then you ask them how long it took and the answer always seems to be measured in significant fractions of a lifetime - especially when you include how long it took to learn in the first place.

Aside from being free and good for mathy symbols, LaTeX really has very little to recommend it if you want to get a big job done in a reasonable time scale and want to include little extras like colour profiles, soft proofing, and good text flow around objects.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 04:48:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I guess I'm not geek enough!
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 05:04:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Me neither. I was over at a local printshop today checking on a DTP project.

Looks great. Couldn't have been done in LaTeX.

I also got to see some giant print presses. 8500 sheets a minute - running at close to its slowest speed.

Huge ink vats in bright colours. Six foot high stacks of pre-cut large format paper. A console out of Star Trek showing colour values and calibration settings across the surface of the document.

Cool. It's not a job I'd ever want to do, but it was fun to watch. :)

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 05:23:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My father, before he retired, travelled the world, assembling and installing those machines, so I know the fun of watching and listening to those machines. The major foreign installations he did during the late 90's were the machines for the Amity press, which have printed something like 50 million bibles for Christians in China.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 05:33:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What do you mean you couldn't have done it in LaTeX? With LaTeX you can embed arbitrary PostScript in your document.

Oh, wait, PostScript is a programming language.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 06:06:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I mean I couldn't have done colour proofing, good text flow around objects, speedy WYSIWYG, decent RGB to CMYK colour conversion, high quality drop shadows, and other essentials.

There's a lot more to commercial DTP than PostScript, which is 80s technology and doesn't include features that are standard in PDF and XML. And the next part of the project is putting together a PHP front end for a website which will dump XML content into InDesign templates automatically, so that when we do this all again next year all of the content will be collected in a single database and copied onto tagged spreads in a single pass.

I'll do code if it makes life simpler, but I object to pissing about with it when there are simpler and faster tools available, or if its main appeal seems to be as a tribal marker for the cool kids. There's a lot of the latter around Open Source, and very little of it can hold its own against standard issue features in commercial software.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:00:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think there is another reason to use Latex...

It follows the line of this.

Rien n'est gratuit en ce bas monde. Tout s'expie, le bien comme le mal, se paie tot ou tard. Le bien c'est beaucoup plus cher, forcement. Celine

by UnEstranAvecVueSurMer (holopherne ahem gmail) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 05:32:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sure. Linux is a playpen for people who enjoy coding. LaTeX is a playpen for people who enjoy coding. Open Source software is mostly a playpen for people who enjoy coding.

That's fine, but sometimes you have a job to do, and coding isn't any part of that job.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 05:48:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I want to be as cool as you when I grow up.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 05:53:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As I said, I'm student procrastinating before writing his first master-level research paper.

But at the end, there are no reasons why we shouldn't strive to get the most fun in work, right? i'm sure that there are ways you do your job that you chose because they were more fun than some others.

Rien n'est gratuit en ce bas monde. Tout s'expie, le bien comme le mal, se paie tot ou tard. Le bien c'est beaucoup plus cher, forcement. Celine

by UnEstranAvecVueSurMer (holopherne ahem gmail) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 05:54:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I used to have a day job coding.

Now I don't any more. I think both of us prefer it that way.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 06:51:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'd like to find out. But it seems that i get to meetups about a month too late on average.

Rien n'est gratuit en ce bas monde. Tout s'expie, le bien comme le mal, se paie tot ou tard. Le bien c'est beaucoup plus cher, forcement. Celine
by UnEstranAvecVueSurMer (holopherne ahem gmail) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:43:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Linux zealots are less connected to reality than Apple zealots who think they buy the hardware for performance rather than for the status.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:36:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I never quite got the whole "Apple has awesome hardware" thing.  It's the same stuff in every other machine, isn't it?  The software is where it shines for me.

Can someone explain the hardware thing?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:41:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Because Apple controls the hardware, they only have to design their software for the hardware they release to the market, versus the nearly infinite number of hardware combinations windows has to account for. There is some truth to this, but it ultimately comes down to how well any given computer design has been tested by the manufacturer (which determines the robustness of the device drivers) before it leaves the floor.

XP was the first version of windows to offer comparable performance to mac's OS offerings of the same era in this category. Vista has been a huge step back because they crippled it with what I refer to as sociopathic levels of DRM (which goes all the way down into the hardware level - we're not just talking encrypted media here).

Before I spark a mac/pc war, I'll note that only a subset of mac fans are deluding themselves - there are certainly legit reasons to go for mac products.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:55:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I didn't know about this. It explains a big part of the hype..

Rien n'est gratuit en ce bas monde. Tout s'expie, le bien comme le mal, se paie tot ou tard. Le bien c'est beaucoup plus cher, forcement. Celine
by UnEstranAvecVueSurMer (holopherne ahem gmail) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:42:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Frequently it's even the same hardware, created in the same factories in Taiwan. And several of the major apps that used to be created on Apple hardware are now created on windows hardware then converted.

That's not to say it doesn't look good and perform well, but they all have problems and there's no perfect platform.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:57:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The hardware looks nice. That's probably the main appeal.

Performance is so-so. I've been using Macs for about a year and a half now, and a bunch of stuff either doesn't work, works weirdly, or works in ways which are distracting and unproductive.

OS X seems more stable than XP, in that you can leave it running for days on end. But Mac Mailer crashes reliably, and I have a weird Firefox bug which only appears on dKos and suddenly slams the processor load up to 100% across both cores.

We had true pre-emptive multitasking back in the 80s on both Amigas and STs, and between Linux, M$ and Apple not much has changed in terms of core OS features or cool new tools.

I'm bemused by Linux - it's yet another reincarnation of Unix, which makes it pure computing nostalgia. I'd love to see some cool new stuff happening, but we seem to have reached a plateau for applications where nothing much is changing - the web-based stuff seems to be spinning its wheels for now as well.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:17:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Linux zealots are less connected to reality because they hold which false argument?

I'm not a linux zealot, not am i even knowledgeable in linux, so I won't carry this conversation too far... Sry.

Rien n'est gratuit en ce bas monde. Tout s'expie, le bien comme le mal, se paie tot ou tard. Le bien c'est beaucoup plus cher, forcement. Celine

by UnEstranAvecVueSurMer (holopherne ahem gmail) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:41:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
TBG's comment is accurate. Average people do not use linux "for fun."

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 01:20:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
more

MillMan:

Average people do not use linux


Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 01:43:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Since I am not a student I simply don't have the time to properly maintain a linux box, which is probably why I switched from Debian to (K)ubuntu.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 02:46:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You mean, average Linux users don't use it for fun?

Rien n'est gratuit en ce bas monde. Tout s'expie, le bien comme le mal, se paie tot ou tard. Le bien c'est beaucoup plus cher, forcement. Celine
by UnEstranAvecVueSurMer (holopherne ahem gmail) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 06:39:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
People use Linux as long as it's fun to do so.

To be honest, I still find Windows less fun than Linux. Mac OS X seems like fun so far, but that's a descendant of BSD Unix, and it is Open Source, too.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 06:45:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I quite agree. I enjoyed you pun in your reply to ceeebs as well.

I can't really understand how far open source Mac OS X is. Most of what shows up on screen is screen is still apple proprietary.

Rien n'est gratuit en ce bas monde. Tout s'expie, le bien comme le mal, se paie tot ou tard. Le bien c'est beaucoup plus cher, forcement. Celine

by UnEstranAvecVueSurMer (holopherne ahem gmail) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 10:20:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I use ubuntu to escape the corporate desktop and for a more streamlined experience. Fun...I don't know, I think of computer fun as youtube and video games - ie, not the OS.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 11:36:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, and I forgot to mention, BibTex is a similar program to produce those beautiful bibliographies at the back of the book.

The blurker formerly known as ignorant bystander.
by b--- (budr at hughes net) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 04:23:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I didn't need that for my thesis but I guess we used one of those or similar for producing our papers.
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 04:26:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's hot here today.  Just had lunch, and I'm ready to fall asleep, so I'm hoping a solid caffeine and nicotine fix can rescue me.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 01:50:23 PM EST
So, anyone seen an exit poll yet?  

I must say, it's great this thing has gone all the way to Indiana.  Because a significant part of Indiana is in the Chicago television market, so we have the commercials.  I was watching TV last night and kept seeing these Obama adds and thought, why is Obama spending his money on us?  This is his base.  How weird...  Then it hit me: Indiana.  For a fleeting moment I knew what it felt like to live somewhere these candidates actually campaign in.  Was eerie...

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.

by poemless on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 02:39:13 PM EST
You should've seen it in Virginia.  NoVa was a friggin' madhouse.  We had Obama right up the street in Alexandria, and Hillary was just out west in Manassas.

Ron Paul, of course, still won the competition for most signs.  Couldn't walk three feet without tripping over one.

Exit polls won't hit until the polls close, and they won't be worth much anyway.  Nobody seems to consistently get good leaks of them.  Expect Clinton to outperform the IN one, and Obama to outperform the NC one, if the history of exits this year by region is any guide.

My predictions...

NC
Obama 56%
Clinton 44%

IN
Clinton 54%
Obama 46%

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 02:49:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So how long do you think until this ever more underwhelming primary season leads to a conclusion?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 03:35:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Florida and Michigan won't be settled until the DNC meets on the 31st.  Unless someone sweeps both primaries today, it'll probably be June before anyone concedes.

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
by poemless on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 03:40:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
JUNE!?!?!? Yawn... ÍI am beginning to think that I should prepare for Prez Saint John.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 03:45:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
June 4th, at the earliest, unless Obama pulls off a magical upset in Indiana tonight.  (Only one pollster -- Zogby -- has him in the lead.  Betting on Zogby...not wise, to put it nicely.)  When do I think it will end?  I wouldn't venture a guess.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 03:43:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
When did everyone got mad at Zogby? I missed something.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 03:47:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, he's kind of had his rear end kicked in every contest but Missouri, where he was the only one to call it for Obama (albeit by too wide a margin).  He did okay in Pennsylvania and a few others, but he hasn't consistently beaten other names like SUSA, and he's gotten a few big ones badly wrong.

He's usually a great pollster.  Did very well in 1996 and 2004 (not sure on 2000), at least in the general elections.  Maybe his track record in primaries is lousy but he does well in the generals.  (shrug)

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 03:51:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I just noticed in recent days that everyone hisses at Zogby polls across the US blogs, as do you and ATinNM.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 03:59:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, I think the rest of the blogosphere is too hard on him, honestly.  I don't trust his polls if they don't jibe with SUSA or PPP, but he's not near as bad as the truly atrocious ones, like ARG (which you'll notice the Kossacks refer to as "ARRRRRGGGGGGGHHHHH").  ARG is very much deserving of its reputation.

The Zogster's alright.  Just don't put any money down on him.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 04:03:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hiss?  (Looking up with mild surprise)  I don't hiss at them.  It's just that one has to be cautious when reporting their results as their Internet based polls are still having teething trouble.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 05:40:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
dKos seems to have fallen over.

Either it's a busy night at the big orange, or someone is having an off-moment in MySQL land.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 05:49:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is working for me...

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
by poemless on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 05:51:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's working alright for me, but it was screwed up on my iPhone before.  Back up for you?

Exit polls look like a mixed bag in Indiana.  Higher black turnout and lower rural white turnout than expected.  That may be magnified, too, since as I understand it Obama banked a lot of votes in early voting in his strong regions.  Indiana could be anything from an Obama win to a Clinton win.  I really can't read anything out of them.

North Carolina looks like it's going to come in roughly as I expected.

Clinton's support among southern blacks has been cut in half (O 91-6 Clinton).  Similar figure in Indiana, although O was already beyond the 90% mark in the North.

Economic questions don't tell us a lot so far.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 05:56:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It reappeared almost as soon as I posted that.

I think I'm well into primary fatigue here. I want it to be over, but the pattern so far is that it's going to drag on and on and on and no one is going to be a clear winner until someone from the top of the party tree takes out one of the candidates and (metaphorically) shoots them.

I don't expect an Obama win in Indiana because that would break the pattern and we'd actually have something like a clean finish.

But I'm expecting we'll still be here tomorrow. A few more delegates will have been shuffled around but nothing else will have changed.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:05:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Probably.  Looks like it's going to be something above a ten-point win for him in NC, and about a four-point win for her in IN.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:11:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How can you estimate NC without the final exits?
by MarekNYC on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:20:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I had certain numbers in my head on what to look for in the exit polls.  Anything above 33% black turnout would mean a solid win, I think, because he was looking at 30-40+% of whites.  Black turnout today was 33%, and then you add the early voting in which they were 40%.

Might come in a little higher than I expected for him.

NC just got called for O as soon as the polls closed, so presumably he got over a 10-point lead.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:33:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Clinton seems to be winning Indiana on a combination of republican spoiler votes and a rump of racist white-male democrats.

That's not much of a base. But it's depressing how significant the racist vote still seems to be.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:29:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, 20% said they were voting McCain in November, and they voted 87-12% for Clinton.  That's staggering.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:39:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The funny thing is, Clinton can't win the Presidency without the AA vote.  Bashing Obama is not winning hearts and minds.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:41:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
True, but which part of 'batshit insane' isn't obvious yet?

Or she's going for 2012. Or it's what the lizard people told her to do.

Or whatever.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:43:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Wouldn't worry too much about the racists.  It's depressing, but ya gotta figure 10% of people are just stone-cold racist little shits anywhere you go.  They wouldn't vote for a Dem in November anyway, in all likelihood.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:46:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"it's what the lizard people told her to do"  ????

ROTFLMAO!

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:48:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You're early.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 05:58:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Trying to finish a job when I found I lacked a $1.25 part.

Rather than throwing a hammer through the wall -- my immediate reaction -- I decided to come home to cool off for a bit.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:41:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sounds like a blast.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:42:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Considering the nearest place to purchase the part is 60 miles away .... yeah, fun of the highest order.

I found something that would work and put that in.

(This remodeling is getting to be a bore.)

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:49:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What in particular are you remodeling at the moment?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:13:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A new-to-us house.  

It's a modest 2 story adobe, approximately 4,200 square feet.  ;-)

We've palmed off sold everything else to a sucker discriminating buyer.  So this is the LAST house I'm going to remodel.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:34:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
4200 sqft?!? Just how many people do you have living there?
by MarekNYC on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:37:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You don't understand.  We have this wisked cool thing called space out in the rest of America that isn't New York. ;)

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:44:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
BAH, wicked cool even.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:44:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We have this wisked cool thing called space out in the rest of America

I thought it was us elitist espresso drinking urban folks who whisked our own cream rather than using Cool Whip.

by MarekNYC on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:46:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, yeah, yeah.  You Yankees and your fancy confusing keyboards.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:48:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
At the present time the resident population is: Zero.

When done the projected population, including all out lying areas, is: Two.

(LOL)

The building is way more room than we require but we got the place for under $40,000 and ... what am I supposed to do?  Chop off the back half?

At least I took the number of bathrooms down from 6 and a half to a mere 3 and a half.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:46:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Heh.  You should just do as I do: Plead ignorance to handyman-ism!

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:39:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Unfortunately, the secret was revealed two decades ago.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:47:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hi all.

The local iron mining company I told you about has now not only found gold, but also zink.

Also, the little investment bank that helped them list on the stock exchange has produced an analysis in English on the company, which might be interesting, if only for the fact that it is the first analysis I have seen which goes beyond "worth $68 per share, buy/sell/hold!".

And they have one very interesting picture touching one of the most important things I have learnt here at the Eurotrib, namely the vital importance of the discount rate.


Oh, and the day after tomorrow I am going to the annual general meeting in Stockholm. Hopefully I am going to extract some shareholder value in the form of sandwiches.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 02:51:43 PM EST
On what planet is 8% to 15% a sensible "required return rate"?

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 03:04:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In the iron mining business, where a falling dollar and/or falling iron ore prices will kill you.

Iron ore price in SEK = Iron ore price in USD x the USD/SEK rate



Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 03:16:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Something which is a bit of a sign of the times is that when the company can switch from trucking the ore to port after the old railroad has been renovated, shipping cost will fall by half, which equals a 20 % fall in operating costs.

This in spite of the fact that, as far as I know, this little rail line was never electrified. Renovating the 39 km long line will cost about 1 million euros which the company will pay.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 03:10:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I've just spent a couple of hours wandering around with my camera. The light is gorgeous.  I found a very photogenic dandelion.

Photobucket

by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 04:09:07 PM EST
Very pretty, especially with the green bokeh in the background.

You're clearly a dangerous pinko commie pragmatist.
by Vagulus on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 04:27:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I haven't come across the term bokeh before.  What a great word!
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 04:45:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
According to Wikipedia, the word is of recent coinage. I first came across it 2-3 years ago, when I subscribed to a photography mail list. Bit of photo geek parlance, perhaps, but I think it's a useful word.

You're clearly a dangerous pinko commie pragmatist.
by Vagulus on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 05:36:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
BBC:  Sarkozy 'non' to Blair presidency
Nicolas Sarkozy has withdrawn his backing of Tony Blair to become the first president of the European Union, senior sources have told the BBC.

The French president is understood to have changed his mind after meeting German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

We did it!

by IdiotSavant on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 04:31:52 PM EST
Yay! If confirmed, that's great news!

(Merkel: Dear Nicolas, if you back Bliar I promise you the six months of French EU presidency will be a nightmare.

Sarko: (twitch) It's all the same extraordinary (contorsion, loosens collar) that the media have to keep on (loosens collar) saying I ever backed Bliar in the first place (facial tic).)

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 04:39:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I note that according to some reports back then, the Bliar candidacy was smoke and mirrors from Sarko, who behind the scenes supported Juncker all along - and pushing him into the limelight too early, Sarko may have prevented Bliar from any top jobs in the EU. (I didn't give too much credit to these reports back then.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 04:53:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I still don't. Too much credit to Sarko for Machiavellian machinations, I think. His policy wizardry in the last year suggests more thought with the little head than with the big one, as my Jamaican friends would say.

Capitalism searches out the darkest corners of human potential, and mainlines them.
by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 01:46:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Good.  If true, I suspect that's a pretty harsh blow to Blair's chances.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 05:34:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, with the StopBlair! petition, we managed to scare Sarkozy into dropping his support of Tony's candidacy... ;-)))

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
by Melanchthon on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 06:13:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The first round of exits had Hillary up 5 in IN and Obama up 12 in NC.  The second (allegedly final) round of exits is in:

Indiana

Obama: 50.5%
Clinton: 49.5%

North Carolina

Obama: 60%
Clinton: 38%

As I said, Hillary tends to outperform exit polls in the North, so I don't really buy this and still expect her to win Indiana.  In any event, it's not a statistically significant difference.  I still think the first round of exits are probably close to the truth.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 06:34:43 PM EST
wow an Obama victory in Indiana could close the deal - what's the best online tv/radio source for following this?


"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 06:39:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
MSNBC is the one I watch generally, mainly because I hate Wolf Blitzer slightly more than Chris Matthews (and MSNBC has Keith).  But, as you're in Ireland (right?), I suspect CNN is the one for you.

This dude (or dudette) at dKos is doing a nice job keeping the site updated.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 06:41:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I use this : NYT Election map

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
by Melanchthon on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 06:44:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I thinkthe NYT has it, too, but CNN's got county-by-county breakdowns.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:01:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The nomination will have to be pried from Clinton's cold, dead, hands.  This is, IMHO, her only shot at the presidency.  If Obama wins he could very easily go 8 years, meaning she would be too old in 2016.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:47:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Isn't McCain eleven years older than Clinton?  
by MarekNYC on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:49:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, but she'd be 68 or 69 in 2016.  McCain's age will be an issue if it's well known that he's 71 years old.  The country does seem to have issues with age.

It's not inconceivable that she gets another shot then if she were on Obama's ticket.  (Needless to say, I think she'd be able to hide 69 years better than McCain can 71.)  But then the question becomes, "Can Obama trust her?"

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:55:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course he can't trust her.  

Obama would have to be a real idiot to put her on the ticket.  Besides the high untrustworthy factor her hard negatives are in the 50 percentile range.  Why load his campaign with a boat anchor when Richardson and wossname from Kansas available?

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:58:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, I quite agree.  He needs Richardson, Sebelius or Kaine.  Those are his three picks.  But he might not be given a choice on it.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:04:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Something like that.  IIRC, McCain would be 72 should he take the oath of office -- the oldest first term Pres in US history.

Another major barrier would be O's VP -- assuming he wins.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:56:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Doesn't the Hillary need a solid turn-out from the southern part of IN to win?

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:44:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:46:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Huh.  So the O-man has a shot.  That's unexpected.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 07:52:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't see it.  I recognize Clinton's counties seem to be coming in earlier.  We still haven't touched the 1st CD, which includes Gary.  And we still don't have South Bend.  But those aren't very big in terms of population.  Where do the votes come from?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:00:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
14 point lead with 34% reporting? I don't see it either.
by MarekNYC on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:03:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, 12 points now, but I still don't see it.  It's possible, so I can see it but not believe in it.  The reason they haven't called is that we've got nothing out of Gary, South Bend, Bloomington, or Muncie.  That's basically the three university towns plus Gary.  And then we don't have too much out of the Indianapolis area.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:09:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
More comparisons from Kos:

These counties aren't at 100% reporting yet, but with at least half the vote counted, here are some numbers compared to Poblano's county predictions:

Allen: predicted: O+6, actual O+10
Warren: predicted: C+29, actual O+4
Clinton: predicted: C+29, actual C+20
Howard: predicted: C+16, actual C+14
Jay: predicted C+34, actual C+24

I mention this because per Poblano's predictions, Clinton wins by just 2 points. If Obama continues to outperform, he might win this thing.

Gary, South Bend, Bloomington, and Indianapolis should be O territory.  

This is getting interesting.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:14:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Could be quite good.  Did you catch this story out of Gary about the poll worker failing to turn the machines on the whole day?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:17:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
are you F--KING KIDDING ME!!!??!!!!?!!!!!!!???!!!!!!!!!!?

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:20:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nope.  Just two machines in one precinct, though, and they kept the polls open later.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:24:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah, I see what's happening and one major bit they're watching.  Indianapolis is starting to pour in, and Obama's winning it in a blowout (62-38%).  Some of the exurbs are still not in for him, too.

Obama's machine backing in Evansville seems to be holding Clinton down there, too.

Makes a bit more sense now.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:22:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Rough mathifying says C has a 60,000 lead which isn't insurmountable.

Of course, the goddamn voting machines have to be turned on.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:25:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Down to an eight-point lead, less than 60k votes.  Still nothing from NW Indiana, still waiting on Indianapolis and suburbs.

Not insurmountable.  Doubtful, but not impossible.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:41:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
63% reporting and C is still ahead by 50,000.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:58:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Down to 53-47%.  Gap closing.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:00:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sorry for my interjecting on a subject I know little about, but at what margin does Clinton's victory in Indiana look worthless? I mean, if she won it 52% to 48%, that's technically a rout, right?

Member of the Anti-Fabulousness League since 1987.
by Ephemera on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:04:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
On one level this is all meaningless since she'd have to win some two thirds of the remaining primary votes (including today's) to pass Obama. But in the fun horse(s@#$)race game we're playing here it's all about 'expectations'. That means that the campaigns both try to underplay their chances before the primary without making it sound like it's hopeless, and then spin the other direction once the results are in. Whichever is more successful at getting their narrative accepted by the media is the 'winner'.
by MarekNYC on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:09:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Which basically means that a large part of our election involves feeding the narcissism of the press.

Well said.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:17:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I actually wanted to know at what point I could go to bed, cause it's bloody late here. But still, the analysis is interesting. To me, this contest is an increasingly interesting, but increasingly surreal manifestation of democracy in action. I mean, people keep voting, but there never seems to be a result...

Member of the Anti-Fabulousness League since 1987.
by Ephemera on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:23:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Poblano over at Daily Kos pointed out that it's a "momentumless primary," which is really weird, but it sort of makes sense given the historic nature of each candidacy.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:26:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In that case at this point you can go to bed with the knowledge that Obama 'won' the expectations game tonight. In a sense this is no more fair than the Hillary 'win' in PA - i.e. we're basically getting what you'd expect from these two states given their respective demographics, but  it's the playing up of the PA 'triumph' that's boomeranging on Clinton. Given that she should have dropped out after the Ohio and Texas primaries and not spent all this time savaging the inevitable Dem nominee, I'm not too sympathetic anyways. Though the one silver lining is that the timing of the Wright affair was better than it would have been if it had come in September or October.
by MarekNYC on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:29:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Go to bed?

We've got the GAME on!

;-)

Slow motion to Denver, I'm afraid.  Clinton can't catch-up in pledged delegates and Obama can't put her away.  

IF O goes on to win in Indiana we may see a movement in PLEO delegates over the next few days.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:34:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Car!

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:36:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Car?


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:17:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You said "Game On!"  I thought the Wayne's World reference was obvious.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:18:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
OMG!  My secret it is out!

I may be the only person in the entire US who hasn't seen Wayne's World.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:05:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You're kidding?!  My God, man, it's awful, but you must see it.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:10:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A must see crappy movie.

Contain my anticipation.  :-)

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:44:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Let's see, Celtics up at the half, Red Sox shutout the Tigers and Obama blew out HRC in NC. On the down side the  Yankees are leading by one in the seventh and HRC is up by four in Indiana.
by MarekNYC on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:39:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Lousy night for New Yorkers.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:52:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not for New Yorkers born in Boston;) (aren't sports loyalties weird - I feel much more of a New Yorker than a Bostonian in everything except sports)
by MarekNYC on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:54:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh my.  How do you manage that being a Boston guy, sportswise?  I thought they could tar and feather you for that.

My sports loyalties are wholly a product of my dad, except in baseball (he has no team and I consider myself a lame Braves fan).

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:02:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I was out with friends for a bachelor party during game 4 of the ACLS that year the Sox came back from 0-3. Needing to check what was going on I stopped into a biker bar near the West Side highway. Cheered for my team, but all I got were a few evil looks mixed with a lot of faux sympathy. Might have been a bit different by game 7...
by MarekNYC on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:17:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I reckon they might've been none-too-pleased with you by game 7.  That was a hell of a series, wasn't it?  Again, not a baseball guy, but that was one I really got into.  The Sox were a thing to see that year.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:20:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ok, Celtics pulled out a sqeaker, Yankees lost in the eighth, Indiana...
by MarekNYC on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:00:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's allegedly going to be another hour before we get final word in Indiana.  Obama apparently stormed Gary, big turnout, which is why it's taking so long.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:06:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't say a 4% difference was a rout, the 20% difference in north carolina looks much more a rout.

a 4% difference means that She only has an advantage of about three delegates from that state in closing the gap on Obama. Without a huge advantage it means that to get the number of deligates needed for her to have an advantage of delegates at the end of the primary process she now needs to get around 72% of the rest of the votes in the remaining states.(and this is a quick back of an envelope calculation so may be entirely inacurate)

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:19:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Pretty good math, if I remember correctly.

Man, I told DoDo never to bet money on the Zogster, and the little "fooker" may just get it right in Indiana.

SurveyUSA certainly got it wrong.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:24:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
52:48

Oh dear. Not even the rules of Clintonball make it possible to spin that as a double digit win.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:26:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Still nothing from Gary, and those Indy suburbs are still not reporting 55-65% of precincts.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:31:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Wow. Wikipedia says Gary's population is 85% African-American. That's incredible. Do you know how many eligible voters there are in the city?

Member of the Anti-Fabulousness League since 1987.
by Ephemera on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:36:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No idea.  The city's about 100,000 people.  I'd guess 55-65% are registered voters.  No clue what Lake County as a whole looks like.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:45:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, she is at a 4 point lead now, down from a 10 point lead in some predictions. How exciting!

Member of the Anti-Fabulousness League since 1987.
by Ephemera on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:26:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
previous to tonight it was about 68% of the remaining votes she needed, using the same suspect methods, so it's all getting very tight on her needing to give in. The Fat lady is at least clearing her throat, if she hasn't stepped out on the stage. Even her advisers must be starting to see the neon 'you lose' message flashing at the end of the game.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:33:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think the plan is to stage a coup with the Rules Committee (or whatever it's called) which will seat Florida etc and then crown her empress of the entire world.

The Committee is packed full of Clinton people. Unfortunately the rest of the convention will try to lynch them, so it's possibly not a bullet-proof strategy.

Even so - Clinton looks like she won't stop until someone forces her to. She doesn't care about the party, she doesn't care about the voters, she only cares about being empress of the entire world.

She's looking more and more like Bush, only without the affability.  

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:38:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Probably not going to matter.  I think enough supers would leave her to make up whatever nuclear strike she launched in the Rules Committee.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:42:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So it's the lynching of John Brown vs the incineration of Joan of Arc?

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:43:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Some strong Obama territory has yet to report any results while Clinton's territories seem to be mostly in.

Nail biting time at the Clinton HQ.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:05:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Indiana has just been switched from "Too Early to Call" to "Too Close to Call".  That means AP doesn't know where this is going for sure anymore.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:14:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Can we take from that voting patterns are significantly different from their model?

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:18:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes.  That's exactly what it means.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:20:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think it's just everything is way inside their margins of error.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:20:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Right.  Essentially what they do is follow certain precincts that give them a model of the vote.  A pretty good one, too.  It's very odd that we might -- again, I think it's still doubtful in IN -- have two races in this primary called or nearly called, and then overturned.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:30:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm fairly convinced that Obama will loose in Indiana. looking at the county by county maps, I dont see there being enough votes out there for him to overturn her lead. Unless Lake has a much higher population than I assume.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:37:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
73% in an a little over 40k vote difference.  

Lake and La Porte counties still have 0% reporting.

If they go O as big as Marion county (Indianapolis) this is going to be a squeaker -- 6/5 and pick 'em.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:39:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It was 44k at 73%.  74% now, down to 38,000.  Per Chuck Todd, O's people think they'll come up short by 10-15k.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:43:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
and that as far as Obamas people are concerned is almost as good as a victory.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:44:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Right.

What Clinton really needed out of this was evidence to say, "Hey, superdelegates, the Wright thing has severely damaged Obama.  He can't win, so choose me."  She didn't get that.  Indiana is, I believe, over 90% white.  It's a Rustbelt state.  Demographically, on everything but age, it's better for her than Penn and Ohio.  That's why I think you see -- or would see if you were watching American television -- the narrative shifting from "ZOMGTEHMADNEGRO!" to "Hillary's screwed."

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 09:50:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I was earlier, but pressure from SWMBO who I was waking through my absence pulled me to bed. feline appeals have pulled  me to the kitchen, and thence to the shocking discovery that one county means you stilll dont know.


Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:45:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Lake County (Gary) isn't coming in until 11PM.  They've brought in extra counters, so apparently turnout there was huge.  Clinton's got three small counties out in southern and eastern.  Her margin has ticked up to 36k with those last few rural counties in southern.

The last of it that should help Obama are Porter, Laporte and Lake counties.  Per Timmeh, we've got perhaps up to 300,000 votes left.

It may come down to Gary, Gary, Gary.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:08:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
OT sort of but I went over to No Quarter one of the main Clinton blogs for a bit of schadenfreude in the comment threads. Christ I wish I hadn't, I need a shower
by MarekNYC on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:11:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, a lot of folks out there, especially in more obscure blogs (but sometimes on the biggies), are just hideous.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:13:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That goes for both Obama and Clinton people, in fairness, although some of the ex-Reps who've joined the DLC Wing of the party reveal their past a little too easily for me.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:14:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They'd rather vote for McCain than Obama? No Quarter lost it's little mind some time ago, but that's just insane. Obama is most likely to run a standard issue relatively low-grade evil US foreign policy and as lefty an economic policy as you're going to get from any of the candidates, which isn't saying much. McCain????
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 03:54:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's silly season.  People are tired and frustrated.  Understandably, I think.  This has been a long primary.  But I think it was Jeff Toobin at CNN who pointed out that we saw a similar divide between Bush and McCain in 2000.  McCainiacs said they'd only vote for the Stray Cock Express.  Except they came around to vote for Junior.

Same thing will happen here.  Worst-case scenario is Obama winds up being forced to put her on the ticket, in which case Bubba goes on a very long vacation to a place where he can do whatever it is he does with his spare time.  And Hillary then gets to do a back and forth between Ohio and Florida for the next five months.

I think that's unlikely to be needed anyway, and that it should be avoided if at all possible given the much better choices for Veep, but the option is always there.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 08:00:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Scratch that.  83% precincts in.  Clinton's down to one rural county (Union).

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:11:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Back after dinner, sipping my expresso, waiting for the Robert E. Lee returns to come in.

"Gary Indiana, Gary Indiana, Gary Indiana
where the hell are the results
?"

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:19:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They can't turn their results in until Daley certifies them with enough dead people to get O over the top. ;)  Ask poemless.  She's the Chicagoan here.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:23:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You are a cynic & I'm wary of having anything to do with you!  ;-)

As for me, I'm just high on life & Murika; tripping lightly down the streets of Our Fair City with a smile on my lips and a song in my heart.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:28:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's me.  Deeply cynical after all my years.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:36:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
elitist!
by MarekNYC on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:28:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Waiter!  Waiter!

Someone left the rift-raft in.  Kindly remove him if you please.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:30:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Back of the envelope calculation figures Obama has to take over 55% of the rest of the vote (assuming 300,000 left) to win it.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:24:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah.  Kos has it as him needing 57% out of Lake to win it.  Rest of it's going to Clinton, although there's really nothing more out there for her.

Doubtful, but not impossible.  He'll win in a walk in Gary, but Gary is only 1/3 of the county in terms of population.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:35:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The 38,772 separation is a tall order but still just doable.  It all depends on how the rest of the county votes as the population of Gary proper is about 102,000.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:41:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yep.  Actually, we still have 67% not in for Hendricks County, right next to Indianapolis.  Clinton leads 56-44 there, but that could change, too.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 10:52:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Apparently Gary went for Obama in one big way.  

Since AP hasn't called it, yet, this thing is still very, very close.

Be a whoot, nicht wahr, if after Clinton's little speech Obama pulls it out.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:02:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It'll be a salt on the wound if he pulled it out after she gave that speech.

Timmeh sez she's meeting with a group of superdelegates tomorrow or the next day.  Might be the "Come to Jesus" moment with Rendell, Corzine, et al., or something like it.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:09:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My gut is telling me Clinton has blown her chances to win the presidency.  She should do well in the coming primaries but not, I think, well enough to overtake Obama's lead.  

But Obama can't put her away.  

As I've been saying since Super Tuesday, the PLEO delegates are the ones who will decide this thing.  So the big question is: Do they have the backbone to tell C she's done?  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:31:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think they have any choice.  If they throw it to her, blacks bail, meaning the base of the coalition crumbles, and that'll be that in November.

Neither can win on pledged delegates.  Obama will get the majority of them on May 20th, it seems.  Even with the Florida and very silly Michigan stuff, he still wins.  I think the game's over.

So Mayor Clay of Gary basically just said it was going to be "something for the world to see."  Starting to think my Daley comment may not have been too far off.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:38:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They say in Providence that when Buddy Cianci won back the mayor's office after his first sting in jail that he got a very good turnout from the graveyards on Federal Hill - given that Buddy's friends put some of them their it would stand to reason that they could control their votes.
by MarekNYC on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:45:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Holy shit.  Her lead just got cut in half going from 87% of precincts to 89%.

Gary, Indiana, Gary, Indiana, Gary Indiana

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:47:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Less than 20k  margin with 9% left to be counted.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:47:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Lake county with 28% in 75/25 Obama.

Holy freaking batstorm.

Still nothing from Union County, tho.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:51:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Union might be the difference.  Not many people there, but every vote counts, especially in this case.  If Obama takes 75% of Lake, he's probably going to win it.

My father just emailed.  Says he's got O needing 59% (I assume that's before Lake County based on when he sent it).  Thinks he'll get it.  We'll find out soon.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:55:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Doing a quick check on the CNN page:

Counties left to report

Hancock   3% left 60/40 Obama
Hamiliton 1% left 61/39 O
Marion  2% left 67/33 O
Monroe 33% left 66/34 O
Union 100% -----Should go Clinton
Lake 72% left  75/25 Obama

Damn.  He may pull it out.  

                       

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:16:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Only 7,000 people live in Union.  This may well come down to thousands, or even hundreds, of votes, so it could matter.  But that's a pretty small county.  If there are 2,000 Dems there, I'll be amazed.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:19:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Add another 1,000 for GOP cross-over voters just to be pessimistic and give Clinton 3,000 votes for 1,000 Obama for a net gain of 2,000.  

That, I guess, would be the maximum.

Bet'cha it was the high percentage of voter turn-out in Gary that blew the models away.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:27:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Nah, it couldn't have simply been Gary that broke the models, because we didn't have numbers from Gary when it started turning in Obama's favor.  He seems to have done much better than expected in rural areas.  Some of them were the standard C 70-30 O, but others came in at more like 53-47.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:30:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
to be fair, kos is correct to point out that those old time political machines are also good at simply getting out the vote when they put their mind to it.
by MarekNYC on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:51:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes.  And that's why politicians fall all over themselves to court their favor.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:56:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Holy fucking shit: Turnout in Gary was somewhere between 85% and 95%.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:58:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ditto on the HFS, there good buddy.

That's .... unheard of.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:18:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's just Kos's math.  I don't think he has it right.

If he does, something fishy's going on.  That, or black folks really showed up.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:20:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Apparently East Chicago which is next door to Gary also has a strong traditional party machine - except it's Latino and going for Clinton.
by MarekNYC on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:21:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Good point.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:26:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Live Indiana Primary election blog

The first totals from Lake County,
316 precincts out of 561 reporting.

Almost all of Gary and Merrillville and portion of Munster primarily make up these numbers, plus Lake Station, East Chicago:

Lake county
Democratic candidates
President of the
United States
Barack Obama 46,759
Hillary Clinton 25,100



Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:28:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So the question is: has he peaked or will the rest of the county follow?

(Good Morning, ceebs :)

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:34:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
well I did manage 2 hours sleep ;-)

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:35:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
and the gap is down to 16,000

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:39:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm afraid it's going to be no sleep for me.  I've got three hours before the alarm goes off.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:45:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
you wake up for work at 4?
by MarekNYC on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:51:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah.  3.30 usually.  It normally takes me a few cups of coffee and a few cigarettes to get moving, so I like to get up extra early.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:55:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Both you and Drew are young, vigorous, and full of it.

Vim & vinegar, I mean.  ;-)

(Anyone else having a hard time loading ET?)


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:51:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Jesus.  Lake County, IN, come in please.  We need votes!

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 01:03:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Exciting, isn't it?

This is why I love elections.  The whole thing comes down to boots on the ground getting your people to the polls.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 01:11:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
or freezing your ass off and feeling bad for blanketing little old ladies with evening calls. Or at least that was my experience this year. Then again my guy got trounced.
by MarekNYC on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 01:12:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Clinton wins Indiana.  99% reporting.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 01:14:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That too is part of the game.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 01:17:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
99% clinton projected the winner.

About 21,000 difference.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 01:13:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thank God.  And with that, gentlemen, I am off to grab a couple hours of sleep.  'Night.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 01:16:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Good Night Drew.  Marek, ceebs, & the rest of you I'm off to bed as well.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 01:20:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No Stamina ;-)

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 01:44:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
you got em, it's over, she won. Over 20,000 with 99% counted.
by MarekNYC on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 01:14:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Clinton's lead cut to 16,609

Hold onto your hats


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:36:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I didn't know that.  Thanks Marek

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:29:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Here's where it really changes things tonight: As Chuck Todd pointed out, even if you toss Florida and Michigan in, Obama's still going to win the popular vote.  That argument -- the strongest one she had -- is now done.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:32:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, he's definitely right.  I think that rescued Obama in Evansville.  Might be the margin if he wins.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:56:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There has to be a trigger to invoke a rush to Obama.  

If he wins IN tonight that could do it.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 11:48:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think the endgame, if he won IN, would be to let her win big in WV, then split May 20th, agree to a FL/MI compromise, and wrap it up.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:00:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
TPM is citing MSNBC as saying that Clinton just canceled all her morning show appearances.
by MarekNYC on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:09:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And Russert just said, "We know who the Democratic nominee is going to be."

Clinton apparently loaned herself money at some point.  She's meeting with the superdelegates tomorrow.  Reflection time, I assume.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:13:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
95% in.  Margin down to less than 17,000.  He just made up 5,000 votes.  I think they come up just short.

Several thousand absentee from students and faculty in Bloomington apparently left to be counted.  O's supposed to take those 75-25.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed May 7th, 2008 at 12:38:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Jeez, I didn't say "he would win" I said he had a shot.

According to the diary up on Kos:

These counties aren't at 100% reporting yet, but with at least half the vote counted, here are some numbers compared to Poblano's county predictions:

Allen: predicted: O+6, actual O+8
Warren: predicted: C+29, actual O+4

I mention this because per Poblano's predictions, Clinton wins by just 2 points. If Obama continues to outperform, he might win this thing.

Maybe he doesn't have the votes but if C's voters didn't bother then ...  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:07:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, no, I know you didn't say he would.  I'm just getting all mathified with myself here and thinking "out loud".

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:11:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Mathify away.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue May 6th, 2008 at 08:17:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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