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LTD: This is Bad News...

by JakeS Sat Jul 12th, 2008 at 12:36:49 PM EST

Say hello to mister Teaser Rate Mortgage. He's a new arrival in Denmark, but he has relatives in the USA, UK and elsewhere.

A friend just tipped me off about this juicy bit of news from Børsen (lit. The Exchange - think the WSJ except borderline sane), which I'll translate below the fold.









Nykredit under hård kritik for nyt boliglånNykredit harshly criticised for new type of mortgage
11-07-2008 08:25 af Jørgen Andresen11-07-2008 08:25 by Jørgen Andresen
Realkreditinstituttet Nykredit er kommet under kraftig beskydning for en ny type boliglån, der starter med en kunstig lav rente, som så stiger år for år. Det skriver Jyllands-Posten.The mortgage broker Nykredit has come under heavy fire for a new kind of mortgage which starts out with an artificially low interest rate that then climbs year by year. So writes Jyllands-Posten.
[...][Snip guy from the Copenhagen Bizniz Skool linking teaser-rate mortgages to the subprime crisis]
JP er i besiddelse af dokumenter der viser, at Nykredit tilbyder specielle lån til Andelsboligforeninger, der starter på 4,35 pct. og stiger med 0,115 procentpoint hvert år indtil det lander på 5,285 pct. efter 10 år.JP [Jyllands-Posten - Jake] has acquired documents showing that Nykredit offers special mortgages to Andelsboligforeninger [I don't know how to translate this; it's a kind of quasi-communal ownership structure, where each homeowner buys a share in the organisation and then pays a monthly fee - in exchange, the organisation takes care of mortgages, repairs and in some cases utilities - Jake], which start out at 4.35 per cent and climb by 0.115 percentage points until they reach 5.285 per cent after ten years.
[...][Snip same guy saying pretty much the same thing]

This story (also in Danish), from epn.dk (I don't know these guys, but it looks like it's the place Børsen plagiarised their newsflash from) has a couple of even more juicy bits. According to epn.dk, Nykredit didn't exactly go out of their way to inform the general public of what they are doing. Second, the new mortgages have the option of not repaying anything on the principal for the first twenty years. Last, epn.dk points out a fact that I had initially overlooked - while these mortgages are not "subprime" in the sense that they are marketed to borrowers with a subprime credit rating (because that Is Not Done on the Danish mortgage market - you are either credit-worthy or flat out of luck), the choice of andelsboligforeninger as customers for these new loans decouple the individual borrower from the loans, thus providing a potential for "primewashing" subprime borrowers through andelsboliger.

Of course, this will require the co-operation of other types of credit lines as well, because a subprime borrower will typically not be able to pony up the 40-80 k€ normally required in up-front payment for a share in an andelsboligforening. However, the amount you have to borrow to acquire a share in an andelsboligforening is, as you can see, typically about an order of magnitude less than what you need to borrow to buy a house or apartment.

Finally, I wish to give you an impression of the situation on the Danish financial markets - albeit as perceived through the occasionally murky crystal ball of our finance newsies (and their editors). So here comes a sample of "related current news" from Børsen's website:








11-07-2008
11:13
Abramovich køber verdens dyreste bolig
11:10
Alvorlig stilstand på boligmarkedet
11-07-2008
11:13
Abramovich buys world's most expensive home
11:10
Serious stagnation in the housing market
10-07-2008
18:40
Aktier i boligkæmper i 17 års laveste
15:42
Nykredit: Boligmarkedet tæt ved frysepunktet
10-07-2008
18:40
Shares in home giants in 17 year low
15:42
Nykredit: Housing market at freezing point
09-07-2008
07:31
Prisen på sommerhuse dykker
09-07-2008
07:31
Price of summer homes diving
08-07-2008
13:37
45.000 har klaget over ejendomsvurderingen
07:30
Skat på jord rammer helt skævt
08-07-2008
13:37
45.000 have lodged complaints against real estate value estimates [the estimates used to compute your real estate taxes - or rather, the estimates that would have been used for that particular purpose if we hadn't had a grossly irresponsible government that's frozen the real estate taxes - Jake]
07:30
Real estate taxes hit completely unevenly [untranslatable idiom - can also mean "misses [the point] almost completely" - Jake]
07-07-2008
21:22
Kæmpe aktietab rammer USA's boliggiganter
07-07-2008
21:22
Giant stock losses hit USA's real estate titans
04-07-2008
12:40
Nybolig: Boligdebutanter i københavnsk kulde
12:16
Antallet af tvangsauktioner er for lavt
04-07-2008
12:40
Nybolig [which is not the same as Nykredit; Nybolig is an estate agent, Nykredit is a mortgage broker; two different firms - Jake]: First-time buyers in the cold in Copenhagen
12:16
Number of foreclosures too low



Milliardlussing til bank-aktionærer
Af MICHAEL STENVEI
Pengeinstitutter: Roskilde Banks aktionærer mistede fredag mere end 850 mio. kr., da aktiekursen styrtdykkede. Mange lokale har investeret i aktien. Læs artikel
Borgmester: Roskilde vil mærke bankkrise
Bankdirektør erkender svigt
Billion-crown beatdown for bank shareholders
By MICHAEL STENVEI
Financial institutions: Roskilde Bank's shareholders lost more than 850 million crowns (€ ~114 million) when the stock price took a nose dive. Many locals have invested in the stock. Read whole article
Mayor: Roskilde will feel the bank crisis
Bank CEO acknowledges failures

So this is the happy, stable and booming financial environoment into which Nykredit has been quietly introducing teaser-rate (and possibly, though unlikely, subprime) mortgages by the back door. Now there's a thought calculated to make people sleep more soundly at night...

- Jake

Display:
Just add a neolib government and stir. Violá: Instant Disaster.

Yes, I'm patting myself on the back for getting this right long before the Danish newsies started bothering to connect the dots. I pointed out the Ponzi-scam nature of the then-current Danish boom already during the last election campaign (see, e.g., this diary, Note II near the bottom).

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Jul 12th, 2008 at 12:42:42 PM EST
old saying

"you can't con an honest man".

See the shiny new oversized house you know you can't afford.......try our mortgage magic.

by HiD on Sat Jul 12th, 2008 at 07:45:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But organized cons gulling would be cons can inflate a bubble large enough to damage even the honest when it deflates.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Jul 12th, 2008 at 08:36:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... Roskilde Bank is actually the second small Danish bank to go belly-up over a combination of investments in foreign subprime bonds and domestic subprime-lite borrowing.

The first was Bank Trelleborg, and that's a tale in itself: The shareholders are currently suing the Board and CEO for predatory salesmanship, illegal price manipulations, insider trading a probably a couple of other things, because the bank had a specific and heavily-enforced policy that their investment advisers had to recommend the customers to purchase the bank's own stock and paint rather rosy pictures of the viability of said stock.

By the end it was, of course, obvious to the management by then that the ship was going to sink, but the policy was never rescinded...

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Jul 12th, 2008 at 12:50:01 PM EST
The worse the economy becomes the more desperate the grifters become to pedal their products.  Do you have newly appointed foxes guarding the financial hen house?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Jul 12th, 2008 at 01:30:40 PM EST
No, it's the same-old, same-old. Back half a year ago, I wrote four diaries [1, 2, 3, 4] summarising the Danish political situation. I re-read them recently to see how my predictions from back then scored against reality on the ground half a year later, and I think that they remain a mostly accurate summary of the state of play, even if the last one is a bit petulant on account of my team just having lost the election...

There are a couple of minor updates worth mentioning:

  • New Alliance has more or less completely purged the moderate Seeberg wing. It has also lost half its MPs or so. My tea-leaf reading is that it's disintegrating faster than Space Shuttle Columbia on re-entry.

  • The general strike I promised failed to materialise. Instead we got two more localised strikes at the same time: One in the health care sector and one in daycare and various other low-wage service functions. The strikers won, more or less. I don't know how bad it was for the government, because I was in Sweden most of the time it went on, but they went on for rather longer than Danish strikes usually do.

  • The Popular Socialists have taken a hard right turn on their rhetoric; whether this is street theatre or mirrors a genuine shift in policy remains to be seen. Either way, it's worrisome.

  • There have been some jittery moments, but by and large the ruling VKO(Y) coalition has been stable. I personally expect this to continue, but as noted above the Ponzi economics of the past decade is in the process of collapsing, and I'd hate to place any expensive bets on what that's going to do to the political situation.

  • The irresponsible policies w.r.t. taxation and general statecraft are unchanged (well, some of the most outrageously moronic ministers have been shuffled to positions of relative unimportance, so there has arguably been a small improvement on the execution side - although definitely not on the policy side).

And that's basically the long and short of it.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Jul 12th, 2008 at 01:57:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
a passing thought... is this fever of bad loans perhaps an inevitable consequence of the whole usury model?  i.e., the outstripping of tangible asset worth by notional money due to compounding interest over time (which makes money multiply far more rapidly than trees, potatoes, eggs, fish, wheat, etc)?  a later consequence is devaluation of the money supply, but an earlier symptom (it seems to me, just watching from the sidelines) is the desperate search of "too much money" for value to represent, i.e. for hot capital to find some real-world value to invest itself in.  when the amount of capital out there exceeds the worth (at current price points) of available real property and assets, then it starts to invest itself in imaginary or wildly overvalued property -- to create notional bubbles of value -- rather than sit quietly in savings accounts at "unacceptably low" (non-usurious?) rates of return.

just slowly chewing on the problem from my very hands-on little world here at the dock... where a significant chunk of the local economy is informal barter and time trade, plus a lively gift/share economy...

The difference between theory and practise in practise ...

by DeAnander (de_at_daclarke_dot_org) on Sat Jul 12th, 2008 at 01:37:50 PM EST
IANAE, but my guess is that taxes would normally be used to remove this excess money from circulation so it didn't have to chase tulips.

Of course, if you have a governing ideology that stipulates that taxes are teh vork of teh devvil... well, you do the math.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Jul 12th, 2008 at 02:00:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In the US a lot of the sub-prime was fueled by frantic efforts to keep the bubble inflating by bringing in less and less qualified borrowers.  The majority of the players profited from fees.  Then they "securitized" the mortgages by putting some "sub-prime," some"Alt.A 'liar loans or NINJAs' (No Income, No Job or Assets!)" and some traditional loans all in a package.  The sales pitch was much the same as it had been for Junk Bonds: put different asset classes with different yields and risks into a single package to get higher overall yield with some increase in risk.  Too bad they didn't look at what happened to junk bonds under Michael Milken and Drexel.

 

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Jul 12th, 2008 at 03:20:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In Norway the "Boligbyggelag" is a quasi-Coop organisation which is similar to the Danish Andelsboligforeninger.

The deal is that an individual "buyer" pays an entrance fee at a fairly low rate and they are then liable for a proportional share in a collective mortgage loan which typically finances most of the building.

This collective mortgage was subject to a form of insurance against individual defaults.

This model has worked extremely well since the Second World War generally funded by the State owned HusBanken but often sponsored or co-financed by municipalities, typically by providing the land.

About three or four years ago, as a way of allowing people onto the "housing ladder" these vehicles were opened up to developers who promptly built overpriced buildings and aggressively marketed them to young buyers in particular.

The buyers borrowed the "entrance fee" - say £50,000 to £100,000 from private banks - and the banks ignored the fact that the buyers were also taking on the collective debt.

To make matters worse, most of this new generation of Boligbyggelag did not have an insurance bond.

This is all now going drastically "pear-shaped" as a specifically Norwegian variation of sub prime.

Firstly, there is a "Death Spiral" effect, whereby when  one person defaults, and "walks away", the rest of the co-owners are then sharing his part of the  mortgage as well as their own.

Most of these projects are in huge negative equity, and indeed membership cannot even be given away, due to the onerous nature of the collective liability.

Many individuals have complained to the Banking Ombudsman, and already many of the individual private bank loans have been cancelled as a result.

Three different Norwegian ministries are trying to work out solutions to the problem.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sat Jul 12th, 2008 at 01:57:37 PM EST
Thanks for the update... That sounds grisly, and I guess it's something of that kind that I was groping for when I mentioned the fact that the up-front entrance fee is often an order of magnitude less than a traditional mortgage.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Jul 12th, 2008 at 02:03:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Any structure in which there is a high degree of leverage wipes out all of the equity very very fast when absolute prices roll back.

Allowing banks to make loans to unqualified people is the root of the housing bubble mess.  Throw gasoline on the fire in the form of back end loaded re-payments and you get a conflagration.  

by HiD on Sat Jul 12th, 2008 at 07:50:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
HiD:
Allowing banks to make loans to unqualified people is the root of the housing bubble mess.

Allowing credit institutions to create credit based upon a trivial amount of capital in order to allow individuals to buy pre-existing assets is at the root of all bubbles.

The requirement by the shareholders of credit institutions for continual growth of profits means in turn that when the market of "credit worthy" people is saturated, they have to extend it in one way or another to "unqualified" people, as you say.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sun Jul 13th, 2008 at 05:15:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Shareholders don't require constant profit growth.  That was mostly management trying to make their stock options into vast riches.  Well run banks didn't play this game (check out HCBK - stock price is UP during the meltdown).

Capital requirements are not trivial.  You only look at liquidity instead of the whole balance sheet.  But that fits your religious view of usury.  If capital requirements were trivial, how come the banking system has lost roughly 150 to $500 Billion dollars?  Should have been pocket change no?

by HiD on Sun Jul 13th, 2008 at 08:34:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
HiD:
Shareholders don't require constant profit growth.  

Eh?

"Shareholder Value" is part of the religion. You tell me how long the average CEO would last if his shareholders did not see profit growth?

HiD:

Capital requirements are not trivial.  You only look at liquidity instead of the whole balance sheet.  But that fits your religious view of usury.  If capital requirements were trivial, how come the banking system has lost roughly 150 to $500 Billion dollars?  Should have been pocket change no?

Bank capital requirements are a maximimum of 8%.  

Trivial.

The balance of 92% of credit = money created on the back of this capital is backed by nothing other than government fiat and trust. That is a matter of assets and liabilities and therefore a balance sheet question, not just a liquidity question.

As for your use of the phrase "religious view of usury" I would neither dream of using the word usury nor are any of my views "religious". "Ethical" - well I hope so - but "religious", never.

I believe that equitable sharing of risk and reward is both optimal and ethical.

Secured Debt does not share risk and reward equitably IMHO, and neither does the legal construct known as the Joint Stock Limited Liability Company.

The conflicted combination of Debt and Equity which are the "Twin Peaks" of finance capital are sub optimal, I believe and will come to be replaced by something better.

You have your set of values and I have mine.

End of story.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sun Jul 13th, 2008 at 09:10:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This collective mortgage was subject to a form of insurance against individual defaults.  

Making them an ideal target for teaser-rate scammers.  

The Fates are kind.

by Gaianne on Tue Jul 15th, 2008 at 03:58:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
going from 4.3% to 5.3% over ten years is hardly usurious.
I read that Denmark was officially in a recession already?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat Jul 12th, 2008 at 04:38:34 PM EST
don't you know all interest is the work of the devil?

1450 or bust.

by HiD on Sat Jul 12th, 2008 at 07:51:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not interest: leverage.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson
by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sun Jul 13th, 2008 at 05:16:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
8000 BC or bust.
by HiD on Sun Jul 13th, 2008 at 08:20:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sorry, HiD, but you are the one stuck in the past.

Credit intermediation is obsolete.

Credit or "time to pay" is needed to create productive assets: and investment is then possible in the productive assets created.

But in a "Peer to Peer" world, credit middlemen are not needed for either purpose.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sun Jul 13th, 2008 at 09:21:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes and no to both questions. The interest rates themselves aren't bad. What's bad is that this type of loan is even on the table, because it has all the bells and whistles of the types of loans that have grossly inflated our housing market in the first place over the past almost-decade (and then some). So my concern wouldn't so much be that it can subprime people (as I said, I don't think that's done in Denmark right now). It's that it can prop up/further inflate/create a new housing bubble. And we really have had enough of that lately.

And what I particularly don't like is the fact that it was kept... well, not exactly secret, but sufficiently under wraps that it came as a surprise to several watchdog groups. That raises a lot of little red flags in my mind.

As to the second, I don't know whether we're officially in recession yet (I don't think so; the housing market didn't start going sour until spring, and AFAIK the bottom hasn't gone out of it yet, so we probably haven't had half a year of sustained downturn - yet), but we've already had two (albeit minor) banks go belly-up from a shrinking housing market and the newsies are speaking doom and gloom about the economy.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Jul 12th, 2008 at 09:16:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
matter, and is not the point.  

The loans exploding in the US are not subprime (those exploded last year)--they are superficially legitimate.  And their vast scale--greater than subprime--is gradually swamping the entire system.  

The key point is the teaser rates:  These are loans designed IN FACT to fail (after they have been unloaded onto someone else) to the detriment of borrower and note-holder alike.  

The Fates are kind.

by Gaianne on Tue Jul 15th, 2008 at 03:56:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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