Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.

Sunday Open Thread

by Jerome a Paris Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 09:52:32 AM EST

Good to be back home Edition!


Display:
on the day of his fourth birthday, my son was diagnosed with a brain tumor.

Just a little bit later today, we'll celebrate his eighth birthday, and the fact that he'll be going to third grade almost normally in two days' time. We're all survivors.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 09:57:14 AM EST
Hooray, happy birthday to your son. and all the best wishes for a long and happy life.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 10:08:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Bon anniversaire et bonne rentrée à ton fils!

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
by Melanchthon on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 10:39:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Happy Birthday to him, and many happy returns.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 11:10:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Wishing all the very best to our wonderful survivors.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 11:48:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
and congratulations to you, your wife, and your family.

paul spencer
by paul spencer (spencerinthegorge AT yahoo DOT com) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 11:49:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
happy birthday!

such wonderful news.

congratulations to all survivors, everywhere.

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 12:45:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Happy Birthday and Congratulations to you all!
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 01:06:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's good to be reminded, Jerome.  Say HB from a cyber-aunt and spread the hugs.

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.
by metavision on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 02:55:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Happy Birthday to B. and a fun and happy Birthday celebration.
by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 03:01:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I went ot a heavy horse display today, featuring suffolk Punch horses. Among the things they showed was a range of ages so that you could see how the physique of the animal changed as it matured. As the animal is bred for very heavy work, the changes are quite striking. It's a horse Jim, but not as you know it.

Also saw a display of owls and hawks. I've been up close and personal with more owls in the last couple fo days than in my entire life. You wouldn't belief how soft their feathers are.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 10:11:29 AM EST



keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 03:23:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The birds remind me of those we seen at the Prague castle. :-)
by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 03:37:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So those would have been plow horses, back in the day?

Good to see some of the old breeds are still around . . . just in case.  Lots of work you can get done with horses pulling machined tools.

by Zwackus on Mon Sep 1st, 2008 at 07:03:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Off to see a baseball game shortly.  Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves.  An epic battle that will answer the question of our time: Who is the Shittiest Team in BaseballTM?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 11:10:20 AM EST
But it's live baseball, Drew, on a green diamond.  Enjoy!

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 11:49:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Erm, I'm kinda being dragged to this.  I generally have a difficult time expressing my degree of hatred for baseball with words.  I'm a football guy.  Baseball is painfully dull to me, completely incoherent from a strategic perspective, and so clearly about money when it comes to the teams who perform well that I can't take it seriously.  The NFL at least recycles teams.  Franchises rise and fall.  But I've been watching the Yankees, the most disgusting entity in American sports, and a handful of others dominate the game for so long that I find it offensive.

But never seen SW DC before, so I'm making the best of it.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 12:01:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It also offends me for this reason: Everybody's on the juice in baseball.

Ricky Williams can't smoke pot (not performance enhancing) and play for the Miami Dolphins, but Barry Fucking Bonds can take a shitload of drugs and still be named Home Run King over Hank Aaron?  Gimme a break.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 12:06:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's in all professional sports. Even football (that's soccer to you). Once a game of skill where normal sized and even obviously small people stand a chance, now every guy on the pitch looks like he was the biggest guy in school. Not just tall, but brawny with it.

And also there's more atittude and temper problems among them, which everybody puts down to celebrity and the arrogance of money, but well, the coincidence is interesting.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 01:01:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I watched the Mariners lose to - well, it was so memorable, I can't remember to whom - a couple of weeks ago. First pro baseball game that I've attended in 45 years.

Got to watch Ichiro throw out a runner at third base and drag-bunt for a single.

Just ain't the same without the smell of liniment and cigar smoke wafting out of the locker rooms.

paul spencer

by paul spencer (spencerinthegorge AT yahoo DOT com) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 11:54:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Does anybody know anything about ambidexterity? I was just looking through a list of upcoming art exhibitions in Italy, and noticed one in Bologna of Amico Aspertini (I thought I'd never heard of him, but it turns out that I did remember his S. Sebastian at the National Gallery in Washington, without remembering the name of the painter).

Anyway, it turns out that he was ambidextrous. To the extent that I ever thought of it at all, I must have assumed that you can simply use your left hand or right hand at will. But, according to Vasari, he could paint using both hands at the same time ("applicando il chiaroscuro contemporaneamente, il colore chiaro in una mano, lo scuro nell'altra"). Is this unusual even among ambidextrous people? Can you write with both hands at the same time, or does that require too much conscious mental control?

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 01:01:20 PM EST
Many would argue, given my handwriting, that I can't write with either hand. But I'm totally left-handed, my biggest problem in learning to play the guitar was the fact that my right hand was useless.

I don't know how widespread this is with inthe ambidetrous community but a famous British cartoonist, Posy Simmonds, once discussed the fact that she could draw with both hands at the same time, but said that a drawback was that she had difficulty telling left from right and was unable to drive because of it.

Interesting fact : A lot of guitarists, such as Gary Moore, are left handed, but learnt to play right handed because of the general unavailability of LH guitars. That requires a certian level of ambidexterity. Also Jimi Hendrix could play left or right handed, but preferred left.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 01:09:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's interesting although if you think of piano playing, where you have to learn to control both hands separately but simultaneously, perhaps he trained himself to do that with paintbrushes.
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 01:10:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Interesting point, but it's not clear whether the advantage would be worth the effort, if he wasn't ambidextrous to begin with.

Anyway, it's hard to find out much about him, as he is a pretty obscure painter. I think I'll go to the exhibition next month, and maybe there will be more information about his painting technique there.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon Sep 1st, 2008 at 05:19:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There was a Japanese monk I met a couple times who could write brush calligraphy with both hands at the same time.  It was rather impressive.
by Zwackus on Mon Sep 1st, 2008 at 07:06:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I hate to drag up politics but GREAT NEWS!  President Retard is traveling to Texas to oversee the FEMA operations for Gustav.  Everyone breath a sigh of relief;  what could possibly go wrong with Prez Asshole on the job?

You may now go back to talking about baseball.

They tried to assimilate me. They failed.

by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 01:04:17 PM EST
When this news was relayed to the SO she immediately responded, "Vacationing at the ranch over Labor Day, is he?"

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 01:31:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... the SO ... ?

They tried to assimilate me. They failed.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 03:24:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Significant Other

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 03:52:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I have been puppy sitting today.  A Parson Terrier, about 12-14 weeks old, can't remember exactly. He is hugely cute but a little too aggressive, needs firm control and to realise he isn't the boss.  But in the same way that it is a bit of a no-no to discipline other people's children if they are playing up, it feels the same with dogs.
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 01:08:46 PM EST
Sounds like fun and where is the picture?
by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 04:00:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Didn't get home til after midnight so I'll put a picture up later.
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Mon Sep 1st, 2008 at 04:23:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
After two days out of the loop, I'm just beginning to catch up.

Anyone think they can talk me through Palin cos the logic totally escapes me ?

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 01:12:07 PM EST
Have you seen the discussions on Saturday's Open Thread?

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 01:33:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, but that seemed to me a little inconclusive. A lot about why it owuldn't work as a pick, little about what might have looked good about it.

The nearest thing I've seen to an issue is this

I think where Palin will help McCain with women is to give GOP women a reason to vote for the ticket (women generally have been unhappier with Bush than men). But more than that it gives the Dems one more chance to show off that sexist strain of fauxgressivism that we all enjoyed so much during the primary. All ready there are sexist comments being made left and right by Democratic operatives, bloggers and commenters. I don't think it will drive Democratic women to vote for McCain, but it could make it harder to vote for Obama. Not that I'm not going to love watching comments at Kos that say things like Palin's nomination shows that McCain wants to screw our "cuntry" (which at one point had 80+ positive ratings so it's not some lone troll) or all the jokes on the word "mate" or having Palin, who has every bit as impressive a life story as Obama even if she is wrong on everything, reduced to being a beauty queen.

A brilliant pick not because she's going to win over all those Hillary voters but because she gives the Dems an opportunity to remind women that not everyone who hates us has a (R) after their name.

Personally, I think it will unravel quite quickly as the tradmed were already beginning to doubt McCain and it seems they didn't like being outside the loop on it. Plus of course, with both Romney and Pawlenty feeling they've been played there's bound to be some backchat.

And the news about her coming out of alaska ain't good for republicans.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 01:47:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think the most plausible explanation is that his internal polls were absolutely dreadful, and that if he continued to campaign in the same way he would have had no chance at all. His solution was to gamble; a completely unexpected choice, with a lot against it, some arguments in favour, but at least a chance to change the race one way or another.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 01:57:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think that McCain is losing the press a bit and their water carrying has been the only factor keeping his head above water.

I can't see how Palin helps with this cos, although she's a moose-hunter with 5 (or maybe only 4) kids, there already seems to be an awful lot of colourful baggage leaking out,which is worrying for somebody with so small a track record. She doesn't seem to have been vetted much at all.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 02:15:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I agree, though I suspect he's losing the press as a result of their seeing the polls (for the electoral college, not the popular vote), rather than the other way around.

I also doubt his choice of Palin will work, but that's what I meant by a gamble. He sensed that her story will go down well with average Americans despite all the problems, and it just might work. Unlikely, but given a choice between losing, and a gamble between losing even worse and winning he chose the latter option.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 02:25:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
All analysis is flying without hard information.  The only person who really knows why McCain made the pick is McCain, and maybe 4-5 people in his immediate circle.

Don't know what else to add that I haven't already wrote.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 02:39:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I doubt anyone knows why McCain made the pick - including McCain.

My guess is trending towards the first tits+ass centrefold VP. I'd like to pretend there's something more strategic and sophisticated going on, but I really don't think there is.

Suddenly gramps looks less like a has-been and more like a macho man with Ms Hot Governess hanging off his arm.

She's every NRA gun nut's fantasy woman - she looks like that school teacher you imprinted on in your teens, she shoots wolves out of helicopters, she's fertile enough to have five (or at least four) kids.

Because most voters vote on identity and fantasy and not on policy, she's perfect. Not only does McCain have seven/twelve/some number of houses, now he has someone to play house with who doesn't look like an extra from a John Carpenter film. Therefore - win!

The low information types hate Obama because he's black and smart and he makes them realise just how full of failure and fraud their lives are. But now with Palin, McCain becomes a fantasy they can all feel a part of, and that's going to be worth a lot of votes.

Us libruls understand that she's a ranting insane walking Rocky Horror Show. Also - eeeuww.

But who listens to us?

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 03:27:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What's the ET policy on posting XXX videos?  I'm feeling inspired.

They tried to assimilate me. They failed.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 03:33:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You remember, when we discussed, if Obama should take Paris Hilton as Veep?

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers
by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 03:35:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Missed that one.  Do go on.

They tried to assimilate me. They failed.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 03:40:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, but Hilton would be impossible to take seriously.

The genius of picking Palin is that it is possible to take her seriously, more or less, while relying on the fact that her main appeal for the macho wingnuts that McCain needed to impress won't be her political experience.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 03:40:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Wonder what she looks like in balloons?

They tried to assimilate me. They failed.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 03:43:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Another possibility.  McCain knows he's going to lose so why not enjoy looking at a nice piece of ass for the next 2 months rather than some guy?  He knows he's got one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel so go out with a boner, which ALL the cameras will pick up and the FOX pundits can proclaim, "See, how old can he be totin' that wood around?  Let's vote for him."

They tried to assimilate me. They failed.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 04:07:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
hehe, events have conspired to throw the repuke convention into total disarray...

ain't that a shame!

chickenhawks bush and cheney first to bail for the bunkers.

the funniest part is that som rep preacher prayed for bad weather to come down to bother the dem convention, lol.

god must be a bit dyslexic, methinks...

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 04:22:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How does that whole GOD thing work now, anyway?  If you truly believe in that superstitious crap, how do you read the tea leaves on this one?  What IS God's message?

They tried to assimilate me. They failed.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 04:50:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
something along the lines of "I gave you self-determination 6000 years ago, stop clinging to the apron strings"

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 05:04:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So when does The Pope go on universal television and deliver this message?  I'd watch, even tape it.

They tried to assimilate me. They failed.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 06:44:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Dunno, maybe Cindy McCain gave the secret away:

The Associated Press: Cindy McCain defends Palin pick, husband

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Cindy McCain said Sunday that Republican vice presidential pick Sarah Palin understands what's at stake in national security issues in part because she is governor of Alaska, located some 300 miles from Russia.

The wife of soon-to-be GOP presidential nominee Sen. John McCain also said she's "offended" by Democrats calling her husband elitist because of the number of homes their family owns.

Asked about Palin's credential, Cindy McCain told ABC-TV's "This Week:" "The experience that she comes from is with what she's done in the government. And also, remember: Alaska is the closest part of our continent to Russia. So, it's not as if she doesn't understand what's at stake here."

(Posted in tonight's Salon)

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 04:26:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How does that saying go? "Never ascribe to maliciousness that which can be explained by incompetence..."

The practical problem with Palin is that she is under an ethics investigation (two, actually) for firing the guy who would not fire her sister's ex-husband as part of a nasty divorce, with the report due out shortly (Four days) before the election. I'm amazed that she made it through the initial vetting process.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/08/29/palin-ethics-investigation/

by asdf on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 04:45:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Just back from a fun weekend trip and of course with a picture of a windmill.

There are not many windmills in Switzerland, yet! But there are now 2 near Martigny, in the Canton of Valais. The second one must have been build resently. The pictures below are both of the new on.

and with less zoom.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 02:52:43 PM EST
More mountain photos. This time of an area where I've been a zillion times (though the hiking is in the side valleys). I think there's a conspiracy to make me homesick ;)
by MarekNYC on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 03:00:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sorry, I missed the mountain photos - where are they?

And been thinking of you while in Italy. I actually watched some tv to see if there are US shows. Found only a few. Most films were Italian and then German and some French, and in the afternoon some hospital series from the US. I know this is not representative, as I only zapped throught the channels twice for about 10 Minutes. :-)

Was most amazed that a German series, which was already running for many years when I gave up my tv approx. 14 years ago, is still running and mostly with the same actors, most of the central actors now with white hair.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 03:06:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Never watched Italian TV. Mainly TSR, the various French channels, the various Polish ones, the occasional German one, and, strangely enough, a Swedish one the last time I lived in Poland (they don't dub) I was exaggerating a bit about no local shows, but I certainly remember the majority being American.

Where were you in Italy? My parents were just in Val Ferret, on both sides of the border.

by MarekNYC on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 03:13:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Near Torino - but unfortunately the weather seems to have been nicer on the Swiss side. Usually it is the other way around. But it was fun anyway.

Btw. some of the tv channels were German, French and there was even a Spanish channel. Amazingly enough not CNN or BBC.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 03:36:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Beautiful landscape.

It's interesting that windmills can be effective at low altitude and next to mountains.  

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.

by metavision on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 04:04:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's a very windy place, just at the end/beginning of a narrow valley, coming from St.Maurice. But I think some more knowleadgeable people will have to explain the aerodynamics to you. :-)

I am surprised that the Aosta Valley in Italy has not windmills, there is allways a lot of wind, and like in Martigny there are transmission cables allover, so my guess is that the so called grit excists allready.

sorry for my laymen terms and explanations. :-)

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 04:10:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nanne, what do you make of this article from Holland stating that the Dutch spy agency has pulled out of it's work behind the lines in Iran together with the US as a bombing campaign is planned.  Does this paper have any credibility?

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 03:19:10 PM EST
It's the most sensationalist, most populist (and hence(?) the biggest) daily newspaper in the Netherlands * cough cough*. It's also rather orientated to the right of the political spectre. Note that the "wiping Israel off the map" anecdote is repeated uncritically at the end of the piece for "context" on Iran.

The AIVD is the Dutch intelligence/secret service, and the story appears based on talks with anonymous AIVD leaks. It's been rumoured for a while thought that AIVD has extensive co-operation with British and USA secret services.

I haven't seen this report repeated in other Dutch newspapers to whom I adhere a little more credence.

by Nomad on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 06:11:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks Nomad, for clarifying what on the surface was a distressing development.  In the Netherlands.  

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 06:21:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So it's technically not possible, if I understand it correctly, to derive Gallup's nightly data from its three-day averages.  But it also seems to make sense that you can derive at least a pretty close approximation, especially if you can start your measurements during several days of very steady polling.  Fortunately, that's exactly what we got from them prior to the Democratic convention.

My math has last night at 51-42 or 51-41 for Obama.  I reckon Thursday was just a bad sample.  Could be wrong, but that's what my gut tells me.  So we've got:

Wednesday
Obama 54
McCain 38

Thursday
Obama 45
McCain 45

Friday
Obama 48
McCain 40

Saturday
Obama 51
McCain 41/42

Throwing out Thursday in the Gallup poll, if it is a bad sample, I get

Obama 50
McCain 41

We'll see if I'm right on it tomorrow, when we'll have the first poll with data entirely post-Obama Speech.  I say it's an 11-point bounce.  Respectable, and actually quite large by the standards of recent elections.  I say, further, that it might well have some legs due to some structural factors we're faced with in the election.  Michelle and Hillary, by my math, delivered a 54-38 night for Obama on Wednesday.  The MoE on each night, since it's a 1,000-person sample, should be about 3 or 4 points.

I'll call it 51-41, fundamentally, and we'll see what effect, if any, Palin has.  So far she seems to have done very little, which is not surprising, since 60% of people say she's not qualified to be president.  She may have actually done a little harm.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 05:46:03 PM EST
That's not good data processing.
Assuming all the time nothing has changed, with your daily data I get:
49.5 +- 3.6 % for Obama. No dramatic outlier there, Wednesday and Thursday both the same distance, but not too much away.
For McCain, taking saturday the 41, I get:
41.0 +
- 2.5%.

I don't know what accuracy Gallup claims for its daily polls. As the make 3 day averages, probably they don't claim to be in the subpercent reach.

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers

by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 06:05:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think you've got to wait at least a week after the repugnican convention before you can derive meaningful stats about where the electorate is headed. All your stats show is that the democrats had a lot of good advertising last week with a lot of press mentions.

The galup daily polls are a distraction. Useless for working out where the race really is, but cheerfully over-emphasised whenever they show McCain heading up.
dKos have spent a lot of time trashing the very basis of the daily polls and I've seen several commentators more or less agree that they're useless except for a cheap headline (which is why they exist).

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 06:17:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Mark Blumenthal has a decent 'take' on the Convention Bounce.

Here's the conclusion:

So, like it or not, we really won't have a sense of what these shifts mean -- and what they portend for the rest of the campaign -- until the Republican convention ends and the dust starts to settle in about 10 days.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 06:54:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Booman's got a diary up

McCain Might Not Attend Convention

Senator John McCain said Sunday afternoon that Republicans would suspend most activities on the first day of their convention on Monday because of Hurricane Gustav.

Bush won't be there.  McCain won't be there.  Dozens of Senators and Representatives won't be there.  

So it's going to be All Palin, All the Time?

LOL.

The McCain campaign is rapidly turning into a farce.  


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 07:02:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm sorry, but, at this point, the fact that 40% of this country would even think of voting for McCain's joke of a campaign says a lot about America.  This is getting ridiculous.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 08:42:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
...adding...Little Sarah, age 5, seems to have answered a questionnaire back in 2006, and one of the answers makes me want to die:

11. Are you offended by the phrase "Under God" in the Pledge of Allegiance? Why or why not?

Sarah Palin: Not on your life. If it was good enough for the founding fathers, its good enough for me and I'll fight in defense of our Pledge of Allegiance

You'll recall, of course, that the Pledge of Allegiance was written in 1892.  The Founders had all been dead for nearly a century.

And "Under God" wasn't added until 1954.

Score one for poemless on her "Pride in Ignorance" meme about people in this country.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sun Aug 31st, 2008 at 08:48:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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