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The European Parliamentary Elections 2009

by Sven Triloqvist Fri Jan 16th, 2009 at 07:16:41 AM EST

Wikipedia: "Elections to the European Parliament will be held in the 27 member states of the European Union (EU) between 4 and 7 June 2009, the actual polling days varying from country to country according to local custom: in the United Kingdom, for instance, voting will take place on 4 June, a Thursday. 785 Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) will be elected by proportional representation to represent some 515,000,000 EU citizens, making these the biggest trans-national elections in history."

The Parliament is the only directly elected EU institution.


Disclaimer: I will be working this year on specific parts of the MEP campaign of one of the Finnish pro-Europe political parties.

One of the key issues that political parties putting forward MEP candidates have to consider is the `unsexiness' of the elections, leading to low voter turnout. In 2004, turnout in Finland was 41.1%

Here's a bit more background from the independent group Euractiv.

First, their `about us'

EurActiv brings together the skills of professionals with experience in EU affairs, journalism, information and communication as well as Internet technology. For its content, EurActiv relies not only on its own editorial team but also on numerous content partnerships, as well as links to the national press and the EU institutions.

EurActiv is independent. It is not another website of the EU institutions but complements websites like Europa by focusing on non-institutional EU Actors too. In order to provide free services and ensure independence, EurActiv's services are financed from four sources (corporate sponsoring, EurActor membership, online advertising and EU projects).

Here is their take on the 2004 elections:

Europeanness" of the EP election campaign 2004
The European elections in 2004 were fought largely on national issues and resulted in the lowest turnout in the history of the European elections, suggesting an increasing distance between the EU institutions and the citizens.
In many Member States, the ruling parties suffered substantial losses and the European elections have mainly served to teach national governments a lesson.

Voter turnout in European elections 2004
Voter turnout in European elections 2004 has followed the downward trend experienced since 1979. This represents a participation figure of 45.5 per cent for the EU as a whole, with a participation of 47.1 per cent per cent in the EU-15 and of 26.4 per cent of eligible voters in the new Member States.

The figures suggest that the EP elections have triggered significantly less interest in the new Member States than in the EU-25. Participation was the lowest in Slovakia with 16.96 per cent. The voter turnout was highest in Malta with 82 per cent.

The strikingly low levels of interest in the Central and Eastern European new members appears to demonstrate that the information campaigns put into place prior to the referenda on EU accession was insufficient and needs to be followed up. This raises the question as to whether turnout figures could put these countries into a weak negotiating position in future negotiations on the new EU budget.

This is not a failure on the part of the citizens, but a failure of the EU institutions to communicate how their work impacts upon citizens, and the denial of dialogue with the citizenry.

The EU is, of course, a work in progress. Like our brains, it contains many decision-making conflicts. Our brains seem to work most of the time, so why not the EU? The problem may be DID - Dissociative Identity Disorder, or what used to be called multiple personality disorder, brought about by stress or trauma. It is a medical condition that may not exist, or at least only be prevalent in the US and Turkey.

Or then again, not.

Can we help to make the EU sexy? Is it just about turnout, or are there deeper questions?

We have 16 weeks or so to make a difference...or wait another 5 years

Display:
The European Parliament is an institution of low imortance for most people. Even though it has been successful in achieving a bit more power over the past two cycles, this is still limited in practical terms.

The issues the EU deals with (policies, 'competences' in EUspeak) are largely in the area of 'low politics', with quite a lot of them being things you'd expect a non-elected regulator to deal with.

Some of these regulations are used to bring about unpopular policies through the back door, aided by lower awareness of what goes on in Brussels and sometimes even without oversight by the European Parliament. Which is a problem.

The European Parliament elections low saliency elections. My working thesis is that low saliency elections can amplify the drifting of the electorate and are ideal for breakthroughs of new parties. However, I do not know how the developing economic crisis will play into that.

If we want to have influence on the elections, we need to prepare a booklet and some other things (like a dedicated website) as part of a broad communications strategy. And draw some other people in. Coverage on ET will be good for ET but won't cut it.

seventhirtysix.eu is still free ;)

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Fri Jan 16th, 2009 at 08:01:03 AM EST
Agreed - but we are the European Tribune. We have to do our bit ;-)

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Fri Jan 16th, 2009 at 08:21:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Plus, it's an election!

Need my fix, man.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Jan 16th, 2009 at 10:05:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
you sound like the proverbial Irishman who would bet on two flies walking up a wall as if it were a horse race!

I think you will find the EP elections a serious disappointment compared to the Obama/McCain election.  There people got engaged because they really believed the outcome would make a serious difference.  No one believes that about the EP other than a few political nerds on the make or take.

I think there is also a wider issue here.  Parliaments generally are perceived as losing power compared to the executive branches of Government.  Most important Government decisions are revealed at news conferences rather than to Parliament.  Few debates in parliament matter because the outcomes are pre-determined by the voting strengths of Government and opposition parties.  Back bench members of parliament are perceived as cannon fodder...

notes from no w here

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jan 16th, 2009 at 10:15:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Doesn't matter.  It's the game, not the outcome.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Jan 16th, 2009 at 10:24:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Spoken like a losing Englishman ;-)

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Fri Jan 16th, 2009 at 10:29:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I agree with you, the European Parliament being of relatively low importance to many people. Thus I think it is very important to start a discussion. I do not think it is important where the discussion starts, as long as it starts and then can develope from there. And for that I think ET is as good a place as any, though it might not be enough, to which I agree again with you. :-)
by Fran on Fri Jan 16th, 2009 at 08:49:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The purposes of the European Parliament, as far as I can understand from the thousands of documents the EU issues, are:

  • `Political driving force'
  • Developing initiatives for Community policies
  • Setting up committees of enquiry
  • Examining citizen petitions
  • With Council, the budgetary authority
  • Drafting legislation

Nice words. What do they mean in practice?

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Fri Jan 16th, 2009 at 08:36:42 AM EST
What do they mean in practice?

We don't know.  That's why we need Phony Tony, the Very Serious Poodle, to sort it out.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Jan 16th, 2009 at 12:09:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks Sven, for getting the discussion started on European elections. :-)

I am always a little confused with all these European Organisations. I assume despite being called the European Parliament, it actually is the EU parliament which will elect MEP's this year.

I thought there was also an organization where all European countries are represented, but just can not remember what it is called. :-(

by Fran on Fri Jan 16th, 2009 at 08:44:27 AM EST
The confusion of how the EU names its institutions is stupid: There is the so-called European Council, which meets irregularly and is made up of the heads of state or government of the member countries (plus the president of the Commission). It is also referred to as the European Summit or the Coiúncil of Heads of State. Then there's the Council of Ministers (also called the Council of the European Union) which comprises ministers from the member states who may change according the subjects on the agenda for a particular meeting, and finally there is the Council of Europe which is not officially part of the EU - is based in Strasbourg and includes all 47 countries of Europe - and has its own parliament!!

Left brain and right brain?

I've read lots of EU documents and webpages and I get less wiser the more I read ;-)

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Fri Jan 16th, 2009 at 08:56:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks for the informations.

And as it is said that know that one does not know is a sign of wisdom, you seem to be moving well along that path. :-)

by Fran on Fri Jan 16th, 2009 at 08:59:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A lovely paradox.

My frustration with the EU has exponentially increased since joining ET. We know it is potentially good - the only way to go for greater peace - but what can we do to make it better?

My main frustration is with the way the EU institutions communicate with the citizens - probably because that is what concerns me professionally. We know that a lot of good decisions are being taken (as well as slapdash decisions), but they are not presented well.

The media has a lot of blame in this imo. They are all (in Europe) essentially local and thus drive national issues in what is an international forum.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Fri Jan 16th, 2009 at 09:11:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I know what you mean. For me as a Swiss it brings up the question, are EU citizens able to participate enough in the politcal process? Would they be more interested to know, if they were more involved?

I used to be very pro-EU, even voted to join, but today I am rather lukewarm for joining, one of the reasons would be that I would loose the influence (even though it might be little) I have on the political process as I do have it now as a Swiss citizen.

I am sure the media is an important aspect, but if I am not involved, I tend to read less and as soon as a vote comes up I start looking for information in the media.

by Fran on Fri Jan 16th, 2009 at 09:34:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sven Triloqvist:
I've read lots of EU documents and webpages and I get less wiser the more I read ;-)

Yep - people have been noticing that... ;-)

Having a separate parliament for the Council of Europe seems particularly harebrained given that the 47 members don't really act in concert on anything.

A lot of the problem of saliency which Nanne has identified has to do with origins and evolution.  Most national Parliaments arose out of a bloody struggle against monarchal or foreign rulers and were thus the locus of intensive national consciousness and struggle for freedom.  They remain the primary locus of national identity, political change, and economic management.

The EP, by contrast, developed almost as an afterthought downwind of the creation of the EU Council and Commission and has only recently acquired even minimal powers.  In no sense is it the final decision making body on key issues which directly effect people's everyday lives, and so why should people care?

Does it raise my taxes, does it decide on crucial issues of war and peace, does it control the Council or Commission?  No, No, and No again.

So the problem isn't one of PR or lack of a communications strategy, lousy thought those may be.  The problem is that EU citizens correctly perceive that the EU Parliament doesn't matter very much, doesn't impact on their daily lives very much, and is at best a sounding board or talk shop where the verbose get their verbatims in.

Of course political sophisticates know that the Parliament does have some influence, but you would want to be a serious nerd to be able to list 3 things where the current parliament has made a major difference.

Having said all that, I am a supporter of the process.  It has developed in the past and hopefully will become more powerful in the future.  However, so long as it seems inconsequential to most people, there is a real danger that low turnouts will allow the parliament to become dominated by the extremes of EU flora and fauna - ultra-nationalists, neo-cons, religious conservatives and others deemed too "extremist" to secure election to their own national parliaments.

We have to stop this drift into apathy and irrelevance if the democratisation of the EU project is to proceed.

notes from no w here

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jan 16th, 2009 at 10:04:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The main funding institutions of the EU (Agricultural Guidance and Guarantee fund), The Social Fund, the Cohesion Fund, and the Regional Development Fund) do have quite an impact on ordinary lives, as do the Committee of the Regions, the EU Investment Bank and the Advisory Agencies - what they do is not sexy - or soundbiteable.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Fri Jan 16th, 2009 at 10:13:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Agreed, and few of them are controlled by the Parliament

notes from no w here
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jan 16th, 2009 at 10:17:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Although not according to my description above of the responsibilities of the Parliament.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Fri Jan 16th, 2009 at 10:21:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
They may have some oversight, but AFAIK they were all negotiated/initiated at Council/Commission level

notes from no w here
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jan 16th, 2009 at 10:44:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Fortunately the PNers are thin on the ground today....

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Fri Jan 16th, 2009 at 10:32:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Policy nerds?

notes from no w here
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jan 16th, 2009 at 10:39:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I suppose I shall have to again explain the PN is an acronym for a Finnish phrase that describes carnal intercourse with punctuation as a metaphor for overcorrectness.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Fri Jan 16th, 2009 at 10:46:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I read an interesting story today about a petition in the US to have a Cabinet level post for the Arts (initiated by Quincey Jones, I believe).

Arts responsibilities in the US are divided into many different institutions - such that when there's an international forum meeting, the US doesn't get invited!

The EU Commissioner Ján Figel is responsible for education, training, culture and youth. Oh, that's got the Arts covered - nice.  And 2009 is the official EU Year of Creativity and Innovation.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Fri Jan 16th, 2009 at 09:54:43 AM EST
From his Commissioner's page:

European-level actions on Culture are indispensable for promoting our common values, a sense of European citizenship and to support an evolving European identity. Concretely, I will strive to bring about a better understanding of others' cultures and wider recognition of a common heritage, while fully respecting cultural diversity.

This is all he has to say about culture - concretely.

Sometimes the distillation of complex thoughts into a few anodyne words misses the point entirely.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Fri Jan 16th, 2009 at 10:54:11 AM EST
Always assuming that there is some complex thought to distill...

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Jan 17th, 2009 at 12:56:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

File:Ep1979-2004.png - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

██ Conservative/Christian Democrat (CD,EPP (79-92),EPP (92-99),FE,EPP-ED)

██ Conservatives only (C,ED,MER)

██ Social Democrats (S,SOC,PES)

██ Communist/Far-Left (COM,LU,EUL,EUL/NGL)

██ Liberal/Centrist (L,LD,LDR,ERA,ELDR,ALDE)

██ National Conservatives (UDE,EPD,EDA,UFE,UEN)

██ Greens only (G)

██ Green/Regionalist (RBW (84-89),RBW (89-94),G/EFA)

██ Heterogeneous (CDI,TGI)

██ Independents (NI)

██ Eurosceptics (EN,I-EN,EDD,IND/DEM)

██ Far-Right Nationalist (ER,DR,ITS)


The left has never been smaller than in this sitting parliament. This is a right/liberal parliament and we need a left/liberal parliament. Like the 1989 Parliament.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Fri Jan 16th, 2009 at 11:34:32 AM EST
But how?

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Fri Jan 16th, 2009 at 11:42:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, like I said above, we'd need to communicate this need in a broad way.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Fri Jan 16th, 2009 at 11:54:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
One of the things I hope to establish by working with the Finnish party I mentioned, is what this broad way is.

It is my first real venture into politics - though probably the result of a lot of freewheeling discussions over the past 3 years with players. 'Shooting your mouth off' might be a good description of those dialogues.

I have some radical ideas, but first I'll be listening. There are very complicated relationships to deal with at a local level. But the most encouraging sign is a realization that 'something' has to be done.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Fri Jan 16th, 2009 at 12:05:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If I may be so bold as to ask - which one of the parties? Been thinking about getting involved in some fashion myself ("we are the ones we've been waiting for" and all that), it's a question of defining "some fashion" (might be somewhat constrained by my linguistic handicap) and with what party.

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde
by NordicStorm (m<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Fri Jan 16th, 2009 at 02:33:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Info by email

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Fri Jan 16th, 2009 at 02:53:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Do we have access to any figures on which countries swung right? Is it an even swing across Europe or concentrated in particular areas?
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Fri Jan 16th, 2009 at 01:00:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Theoretically we should have access. There are records somewhere! Wait...

Or not. Only online for 1999 and 2004 apparently. See here.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Fri Jan 16th, 2009 at 01:27:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hmm, if I have time I'll dig through it, although the difference between 99 and 04 is smaller - and some of it just related to the rise of Eurosceptics who presumably in some countries have a constituency on the left.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Fri Jan 16th, 2009 at 02:19:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Most of the increase among the liberals and some of the decrease among the social democrats, greens and far left will, without doubt, be due to the new Member States.

On the other hand, we've also been observing domestic electoral trends in the old Member States. Aside of increasing fragmentation and an increasingly drifting electorate, the overall trend has been to the right.

...

Which is another thing that needs to be communicated. The Council is heavy on the right. Migeru once coloured in a map of that (which, however, didn't account for coalition governments). But it should be made clear how many Council votes are effectively on the EPP's side. A few hours work of looking around on wikipedia and entering the stuff in an spreadsheet, I'd guess. If it can't be found online.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Fri Jan 16th, 2009 at 06:24:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I remember counting the seats before and right after the 2004 election and the win/loose percentage for the party groups were all very small, most lost about 1% of the seat percentage, except for the Independents that gained quite a lot. A couple of months later ALDE had picked up most of those independents turning a small election loss into a mayor gain (the eurosceptics also increased their post-election share).

So what does this mean? In general that it was not represented parties that increased, but new parties that entered made the swing in seats. For clarification, the new member states were represented in the EP in april-may 2004, and I assume they were represented by the parties present in their national parliaments.

A detailed analysis of the parties that entered in 2004 and needed a new group would perhaps yield interesting results, but that is beyond the scope of my investigation. I would assume there was new entries in both old and new member states, but more from the new ones, but that is just a guess.

Safe to say, this at least supports the later part of nannes working thesis:

nanne:

My working thesis is that low saliency elections can amplify the drifting of the electorate and are ideal for breakthroughs of new parties.


Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Sat Jan 17th, 2009 at 01:03:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I went on a google-trip and found my old numbers.

A swedish kind of death:

I crunched some numbers after the last european parliament elections, frustrated by not finding the relative increases and decreases totally anywhere. Just a lot of reporting on local changes. Thought you could use it if planning a series. Anyway, dug it up and here it is:

Before 2004 elections (seats):
EPP 294
PES 232
ELDR 67
EUL 55
GREEN 47
UEN 30
EDD 17
No-group 44
Total 786

After 2004 elections (seats)
EPP 276
PES 200
ELDR 67
EUL 39
GREEN 42
UEN 27
EDD 15
No-group 60
Total 732

And percentage of the seats:
old * new
EPP 37,4 -> 37,7
PES 29,5 -> 27,3
ELDR 8,5 -> 9,2
EUL 7,0 -> 5,3
GREEN 6,0 -> 5,7
UEN 3,8 -> 3,7
EDD 2,2 -> 2,0
No-group 5,6 -> 9,0

The numbers on the new parliament is from june 2004, I believe it has changed some since. I think the ELDR swallowed a lot of the new in the no-group group when they changed name in the autumn of 2004.

Anyway what was most striking to me at the time was (except the lack of reporting on the election results instead of reporting on which local representatives will go to Brussels) how little changed. Lots of local changes but in total very constant.

Swedish wikipedia was kind enough to indicate how much bigger ALDE became when it united ELDR and EDD.

Alliansen liberaler och demokrater för Europa - Wikipedia

88 (EP-valet 2004)
101 (nuvarande)

("Nuvarande" means present, so an increase from 88 to 101.)

Mucking about at wikipedia I also came across this chapter:

European Parliament election, 2004 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

European Parliament Election 2004: Estimated Notional Results, January 2007

That is the estimate gains or losses during the post-election period. It would appear that the post-election swings for most party groups are larger then the election swings.

And aditional note from swedish wikipedia:

Europaparlamentsvalet 2004 - Wikipedia
Som ett resultat av valresultatet fortsatte Europeiska folkpartiet (kristdemokrater) och Europademokraterna att samarbeta med socialdemokratiska gruppen i Europaparlamentet, eftersom liberalerna och de konservativa tillsammans endast besatt 49 % av parlamentets mandat.As a result of the election EPP returned to cooperate with PES as ALDE and EPP only held 49 % of the seats.

This would indicate that the real election result in 2004 - real in terms of political effect - was a failure of the pre-2004 rightwing (ALDE+EPP) coalition to hold their mayority and thus a return to a previous grand coalition. If that and the nominal position of the partygroups (PES to the left of ALDE) is to be trusted, then the political result of the 2004 election was a drift to the left.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Sat Jan 17th, 2009 at 02:08:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Any idea if voting turnout for EU elections mirrors trends in voting turnout for MP (or equivalent) elections or if peaks are due to topical issues motivating people to vote?
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Fri Jan 16th, 2009 at 01:27:35 PM EST
I'm in the shallow end at the moment - I'll try to find out.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Fri Jan 16th, 2009 at 02:20:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Inaugural Gooseberries Awards go down a treat

This bit of news - awarding 'Gooseberries' for the worst acts in Irish entertainment - inspires me to think that ET could establish an annual EU Gooseberries award for decisions, leaders and bureaucrats in various categories. It might mean a dedicated site for the whole of Europe to vote upon, but it could attract more visitors if branded correctly.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Sat Jan 17th, 2009 at 07:43:14 AM EST
People would be more likely to go and vote their than to turn out and vote for their MEP.
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Sun Jan 18th, 2009 at 05:57:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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