WHat do you mean by "blanket interruption"? Only gas flows via Ukraine are affected.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

My take is that Putin knows that people in the major EU gas companies and governments know full well about the shady underbelly of Ukrainian gas, and he's playing some hardball here.  He believes Russia can take the media hit, because the key players know it's not true unless it lasts weeks.

He wants to end 17 years of annual disputes, and end the hold of the oligarchical middle-men (persons).  Since the "energy weapon" is already reality in the West media, though not true, he can afford to lose some face to slam the third parties without significant risk that Russian is newly seen as belligerent, since they are already seen that way.

But i defer completely to your take, as i have nowhere near your experience here.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

As for Europe.  1) Aren't they trying/wanting/justifying the need to build a pipeline to Europe that is sep. from Ukraine?  2) They don't care if you like them.  They care if you need them.  Turning off your gas will piss you off, but you will still beg them to turn it back on.  3) Theoritically, if Putin were in control And ok'd this, do you think it could have anything to do with pure politics?  Tit for Tat for August or anything?

As for who is in charge, does anyone even really know?  I just got a book in today, "Plan Putina -2010."  I don't see a "Plan Medvedeva" in the series...  OTOH, Sean's had some article's about this on his site.

For those of you who read Russian, there has been a few articles of late on the status of the Medvedev-Putin "tandem."  Russian Newsweek has an interesting story (translated in JRL #233) arguing that Medvedev and Putin have a difficult relationship.  Much of the day to day governance has moved from the Kremlin to the White House.  Medvedev continues to act as the apprentice or sidelined as one by constantly looking to Putin for his approval.  Konstantin Faaze and Mikhail Fishman write:

People who know Medvedev say that he is extremely busy -- "he sleeps only five hours a day" -- and takes his duties extremely seriously. For instance, since the beginning of the crisis he has been holding conferences several times a week with ministers, vice premiers, and his aides. But that does not change anything, a Kremlin staffer asserts: Putin's signature is always needed, just the same. According to him, Medvedev writes this on the documents that he sends to Putin: "Esteemed VV (Vladimir Vladimirovich), please take a look." Or: "To V.V. Putin. Your opinion? With respect, Medvedev." Putin, when he used to send papers to his prime ministers, would usually write: "Look into it and report back." Or simply: "Report.".

In fact it is not so easy to get Putin's signature. The situation has changed -even compared with this past summer. All the sources in the Kremlin and the White House assert that the prime minister does very little work. "Something needs to be decided, but he is not there," a Kremlin staffer confides, "that is to say, he is nowhere to be found, and (chief of Putin's bodyguard Viktor) Zolotov says: I don't know what to advise you, I'm not going to harass him." A situation has apparently been repeated twice where financial speculators were buying up currency and the Central Bank delayed reducing the ruble rate of exchange for 24 hours because they could not find Putin.

An article in Vedomosti, however, doesn't see an conflict between the two leaders but notes that Medvedev does look to Putin for advice, if not approval. Part of the reason is because the latter has more experience.  The other is that Putin commands more political authority in the country. Another reason is that each side of the tandem has their own spheres of influence.  Putin is tackling the economy-"the market considers him in charge"-and he has the authority to subordinate Russia national and regional elite.  Medvedev' sphere is centered around legal reform-amending the constitution and fighting corruption.  Medvedev has also exercised his power to appoint governors, the most recent being making former SPS Nikita Belykh the govenor of Kirov.

Nezavmisimaya gazeta puts the point simply:

Western analysts can't cease their interest: Who's in charge? When will Medvedev cast off Putin? or the opposite, when will Putin return to power? They are naive people, though very intelligent.  They don't understand that Medvedev and Putin are allies.

Indeed. For some reason, Western analysis fail to see that Russia's ruling elite are a team.  It's not a team of equal players for sure, but a team nonetheless. And as a ruling elite they have corporate interests that they share with a constituency-Russia's business elite.

You raise a good question about the Oligarchs, though.  It's not clear Putin was ever concerned about the legitimacy of their business, just that the state profit from it.  You seem to be suggesting they're going rogue.  I just can't imagine this was done without the explicit consent of the government.  So why did they consent?  They thought it politically sound?  I mean, it's not like the country is in a state of chaos like in the 90's.  The gov. is not a charade.  In fact, it's usually argued they have too much control, not the opposite.  Maybe they just couldn't find Putin. ;)"

You know, I was thinking about it, about the whole Russia v. Ukraine, and Euope and NATO being on the side of Ukraine thing this morning, and it occurred to me that it is quite possible, even probably, that Russia more than any country is invested in the welfare of Ukraine, not Europe or NATO.  To us, Ukraine is a pawn.  To Russia, it's a step-child.  


Come, my friends, 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world.

Mark Almond: A capitalist revolution | Comment is free | The Guardian

Gazprom is at the heart of modern Russia. Its former chairman is the country's president, and many key executives work part-time in the Kremlin. It is, above all, not only Russia's biggest company but the world's biggest energy supplier. Back in the sleepy Brezhnev days it was run like the gas board here under Harold Wilson, and with as much geopolitical significance. Now the west's fear is that Gazprom is beginning to play a role like that of America's oil companies or BP in the days when the west's energy interests determined who ran countries such as Iran.

Vladimir Putin is the exact opposite of Enya.