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Ending the recession. NOT

by Jerome a Paris Tue Oct 13th, 2009 at 06:36:52 AM EST

U.S. stocks notched new 52-week highs again on Monday, thanks to corporate America showing better-than-expected profits.

In an ominous sign for the economy, much of the profit is being eked out through cost cuts. Executives say they are hesitant to reinvest such profits into their businesses. With large portions of their factories, fleets and warehouses sitting idle, some say they probably won't see reason to do so for a year or more. (...)

Already, the economy is being starved of investment it needs to nurture growth. Net private investment, which includes spending on everything from machine tools to new houses, minus depreciation, fell to 0.1% of gross domestic product in the second quarter of 2009, according to the latest government data. That's the lowest level since at least 1947.

The recession has "ended" because corporate profits are doing better than expected, and the stock market can celebrate that thanks to the oodles of cash injected into the financial economy by the Fed. But this is like losing weigth by starving oneself...

If this doesn't point to the urgent, desperate, need for more public sector investment to plug the unprecedented gap in the private sector, I don't know what will.

And if that doesn't point to an incredible opportunity for Obama (and governments elsewhere) to shape the economy for the next 50 years by putting in place new collective infrastructure (energy, transport, healthcare, education, I don't know what will).

Instead, we get the "government has grown too big already" pollyannas choking off any alterantive voice.


Display:
in a slightly extended version:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/10/13/792721/-Obama-has-an-unprecedented-opportunity-to-re-ma ke-the-economy

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Oct 13th, 2009 at 08:19:56 AM EST
Remarkably the Democrats seem more concerned about containing the growth of the Federal deficit than Bush ever was.

notes from no w here
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Oct 13th, 2009 at 09:07:25 AM EST
Being "more concerned about containing the growth of the Federal deficit than Bush ever was" is not a very hard thing to do.


Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Tue Oct 13th, 2009 at 10:12:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It is if you are trying to stave off a major depression and fund some very necessary social and environmental programmes at the same time

notes from no w here
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Oct 13th, 2009 at 04:50:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's because they're trying to be responsible.

It's just too bad that the advice they get from reputable academic scholars on what constitutes responsible behaviour is so pathetically obtuse.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Oct 13th, 2009 at 08:35:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And some matching stupid from Ireland from Progressive Economy:

There are two things to remember: the one and only goal of Government fiscal strategy has been to contain the deficit. They have set no targets for job creation / retention, investment, consumer spending or even a timeline on shortening and lessening the impact of the recessionary dive. The exclusive objective of fiscal policy has been to contain the deficit.

In keeping with this strategy, the Government brought in the supplementary April budget out of fear that the deficit would rise to -12.75 percent. Only weeks earlier, they had published the Addendum where they had set a 2009 deficit target of -9.5 percent (this itself was a downward revision of a target they had set, yet again, only weeks previously in the October Budget - a target of -6.5 percent).

The April budget's measures, combined with the earlier pension levy, was intended to contain the annual deficit at 10.75 percent for this year and next year - winding down to the Maastricht threshold of -3 percent by 2013.

So what is the ESRI projecting for this year and next? In 2009, they project the annual deficit to be -12.9 percent. That is considerably above the Government's target for this year. In 2010, the deficit will remain pretty much the same, -12.8 percent.

Turns out that pursuing a policy of shrinking the economy doesn't help get you out of a recession. Who knew?

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Oct 13th, 2009 at 09:12:06 AM EST
Colman:
the one and only goal of Government fiscal strategy has been to contain the deficit. They have set no targets for job creation / retention, investment, consumer spending or even a timeline on shortening and lessening the impact of the recessionary dive. The exclusive objective of fiscal policy has been to contain the deficit.
Hoover, here we go again.

The lessons of the Great Depression were learned, then studiously forgotten again, and salt was sown to ensure they couldn't be rediscovered.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 13th, 2009 at 10:02:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
yooman naycha, the ignorance coupled with cunning is socially devastating.

i wonder if this can ever be contained, once it's taken root in the personality.

lying, stealing, gambling, mystifying... all addictions for which cure is all too rare.

what some subhumans will stoop to if they feel what they do might be able to deodorise the stench of their valueless existences.

grab the moolah and boogie, life reduced to one insatiable urge.

hell for all the rest, so a few can frolic a few moments more in the sunset of civilization as we knew it.


'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Tue Oct 13th, 2009 at 11:50:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"... ignorance coupled with cunning..."

Wow. Powerful phrasing. Ready for a bumper sticker.

And, 7 hours later, already able to be google'd. Nice one~!

European Tribune - Community, Politics & Progress.
13 Oct 2009 ... yooman naycha, the ignorance coupled with cunning is socially
devastating. i wonder if this can ever be contained, once it's taken root in ...
www.eurotrib.com/story/2009/10/13/63652/914 - 7 hours ago - Similar

Never underestimate their intelligence, always underestimate their knowledge.

Frank Delaney ~ Ireland

by siegestate (siegestate or beyondwarispeace.com) on Tue Oct 13th, 2009 at 02:30:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Doesn't this all depend upon your definition of recession?  If the people they TRULY represent are the wealthy and they're back doing fine, aren't you (as a politician representing your constituency) doing your job?  If the schmucks out of work keep electing these people to office, aren't they getting what they deserve?  I've stopped feeling sorry for the unemployed, one of which I am not; I know, I know ... that's today.  What about tomorrow?  I hear you.  

They tried to assimilate me. They failed.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Tue Oct 13th, 2009 at 09:27:30 AM EST
FT Alphaville » Blog Archive » Moving targets, QE edition

Charlie Bean, the Bank's deputy governor for monetary policy, has just made a speech called "Quantitative easing: An interim report", in which he rather moves the QE goal posts. The policy, we are now told, is not so much about getting banks to lend. It's more about pushing up asset prices to repair banks' balance sheets.

Here's the relevant bit from the speech:

Fortunately, increased bank lending is not necessary for Quantitative Easing to work. Indeed, it was precisely because the Monetary Policy Committee expected the additional monetary injection not to stimulate bank lending directly at the current juncture, that the Asset Purchase Facility's purchases were targeted at assets held primarily by the non-bank private sector.

So if the Asset Purchase Facility buys gilts from pension funds or asset managers, they will then have to look for another home for their money. As it is not very rewarding just to hold it on deposit, they are likely to look to put their money into other assets, including equities and corporate bonds. Thus not only does the price of gilts rise as a consequence of the Asset Purchase Facility's initial purchases, but also the prices of a whole spectrum of other assets.

That in turn lowers the cost of non-bank finance and encourages increased corporate issuance. Also the rise in asset prices increases wealth and improves balance sheets. In this way, Quantitative Easing helps to work around the blockage created by a banking system that is still undergoing a process of balance sheet repair.

That, of course, is rather at odds with Bean's previous work on the QE subject

So, if they did (did they?) know QE would not affect bank lending - which wasn't Rocket Science, since the great majority of people and businesses are not particularly creditworthy - they didn't see fit to share that fact with anyone else.

And now they post-rationalise QE with the explicit admission that their express purpose was, and is, to create the current bubble in financial assets.

As one of the comments put it...

The idea that wealth increases thanks to the BoE using the printing presses is Zimbabwe-crazy. The Bank is distributing wealth to the asset rich and taking wealth from the asset poor, its as if Robin Hood was reincarnated as an estate agent.


"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson
by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Tue Oct 13th, 2009 at 01:00:54 PM EST
But impeachment is off the table.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Oct 13th, 2009 at 09:25:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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